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Trump becoming a stronger favourite for WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 23 in General
imageTrump becoming a stronger favourite for WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

One thing that we know is almost a certainty – that the decade’s biggest current betting market by far will be on who will be elected President in November 2024. Even with three years to go the betting is pretty active with the money piling on Trump who has made it clear that he would like to be the nominee next time.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,438
    First it seems.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,843
    Given that Pete Buttigieg is given a less than 3% chance in that market then I suggest its a name that hasn't even appeared rather than won't go away.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188
    Third rate like Windies.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,353
    edited October 23
    Fourth (rate) like Donald Trump's reputation in 2024 (if he runs again)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    Expensive over for England. 5 conceded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188
    55 all out
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    edited October 23
    Rashid 4-2!!! Surely the best figures ever in a T20 WC.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    This will give Mrs Sandpit a misleading impression of the game!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188
    So my bet was only out by 95 runs on the Windies score.

    Oh well, I'm OK not winning that one.

    😂😂
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    What are the terms of the market?

    1. Who is inaugurated in January 2025.

    2. Who wins the most ECVs according to the official vote counts of the States.

    3. As (2), but as certified by the State Legislatures.

    4. As (2), but as certified by Congress.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    Sandpit said:

    Shall I ask for half my money back, as only one team turned up…? ;)

    Careful. We’ve not had a bat yet. I know it looks a done deal, but...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188

    What are the terms of the market?

    1. Who is inaugurated in January 2025.

    2. Who wins the most ECVs according to the official vote counts of the States.

    3. As (2), but as certified by the State Legislatures.

    4. As (2), but as certified by Congress.

    #4

    The rules have been clarified this time to say if one side concedes then the other has won, but if there's no concession then it's as certified by Congress.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    edited October 23

    Sandpit said:

    Shall I ask for half my money back, as only one team turned up…? ;)

    Careful. We’ve not had a bat yet. I know it looks a done deal, but...
    As Mrs C and I say to each other; “this is cricket!

    And we spent time earlier today watching Aus v S.Africa.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    If I’d known that the whole ground is now licenced, rather than just the pavilion as it used to be, I’d have got a taxi here and be in the bar queue!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 10,737
    @Gallowgate

    One further comment from a friend consulted about your plywood.

    >That size would go on the bus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    What do we reckon, 5-6 overs for the spread?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957
    kinabalu said:

    Time for some Truth Social on this one. WH24 is not for ages and it's likely to be someone who isn't Donald Trump vs someone who isn't Joe Biden. 2 bad short priced favourites here imo. You have so many things running for you - both knowns and unknowns - if you lay the pair of them as I've done.

    Fake news!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    England 2 behind the Windies at the end of the first over.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    edited October 23
    Sandpit said:

    If I’d known that the whole ground is now licenced, rather than just the pavilion as it used to be, I’d have got a taxi here and be in the bar queue!

    cant you leave your car and get a taxi back for it tomorrow?

    ETA if the blood alcohol limit is like UK you probably havent got time to hit it before the match is over anyway.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    edited October 23
    Roy gone! 21-1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    Sandpit said:

    If I’d known that the whole ground is now licenced, rather than just the pavilion as it used to be, I’d have got a taxi here and be in the bar queue!

    The whole ground is licensed???

    Damn it. I should be in UAE.
  • 44,985 positive tests and 135 deaths
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922

    Sandpit said:

    If I’d known that the whole ground is now licenced, rather than just the pavilion as it used to be, I’d have got a taxi here and be in the bar queue!

    cant you leave your car and get a taxi back for it tomorrow?

    ETA if the blood alcohol limit is like UK you probably havent got time to hit it before the match is over anyway.
    Yes I could get a cab home, but tomorrow is a work day and I can’t be arsed now.

    No ‘limit’ in this part of the world. Anything at all and you can find yourself in the clink!

    Half way to the total now anyway, only another 10 minutes to go.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 10,924
    LOVING the cricket. I could watch Rashid bowl
    all day, even when he is bowling badly. What a player.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    That was a good catch!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    edited October 23
    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Indeed. This is a bit of a no win for the individual batsmen. Not a big enough target to get a decent innings, pressure to wind it up quickly and the risk of a cheap dismissal. 2 down. I think England should not worry too much about the NRR and just finish this professionally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    He’s out. Saw it with my eyes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    Moeen ran about 1.5 runs there. Silly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Is Mrs S enjoying herself?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    DavidL said:



    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Indeed. This is a bit of a no win for the individual batsmen. Not a big enough target to get a decent innings, pressure to wind it up quickly and the risk of a cheap dismissal. 2 down. I think England should not worry too much about the NRR and just finish this professionally.
    It’s not an easy situation for the team following such a low score.

    Oh, and another great catch. Or is it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    It has to be Buttigieg would be my feeling.

    But I am not convinced that Biden will be persuaded to step aside. Unless his wife intervenes and says 'you've done your bit joe' or whatever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175
    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:



    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Indeed. This is a bit of a no win for the individual batsmen. Not a big enough target to get a decent innings, pressure to wind it up quickly and the risk of a cheap dismissal. 2 down. I think England should not worry too much about the NRR and just finish this professionally.
    It’s not an easy situation for the team following such a low score.

    Oh, and another great catch. Or is it.
    Even if it hadn’t been given it deserved to be!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922

    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Is Mrs S enjoying herself?
    Yes thanks :+1:

    Great atmosphere here, and the stand we are in is pretty full.

    Looks like not a lot of the sponsors and guests turned up though, maybe they’re more interested in tomorrow night’s match.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,476
    DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    TV implied he thought he had a finger under it. No way to tell, and looked like the ball was touching the ground. Shouldn’t matter today, but you’d be pissed if it cost you the match, final etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    That was what half the stadium thought. Couldn’t see enough detail on the big screen, but if he’s not got his hand under the ball it can’t be out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    That was a good catch!

    Is Mrs S enjoying herself?
    Yes thanks :+1:

    Great atmosphere here, and the stand we are in is pretty full.

    Looks like not a lot of the sponsors and guests turned up though, maybe they’re more interested in tomorrow night’s match.
    It’ll be VERY noisy tomorrow!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,175

    DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    TV implied he thought he had a finger under it. No way to tell, and looked like the ball was touching the ground. Shouldn’t matter today, but you’d be pissed if it cost you the match, final etc.
    In fairness he might well have done initially but as he rotated it was on the ground. Deserved a wicket in fairness, brilliant take.
  • DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    TV implied he thought he had a finger under it. No way to tell, and looked like the ball was touching the ground. Shouldn’t matter today, but you’d be pissed if it cost you the match, final etc.
    I thought it was a 50 50 decision but on balance not out
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188
    edited October 23
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    TV implied he thought he had a finger under it. No way to tell, and looked like the ball was touching the ground. Shouldn’t matter today, but you’d be pissed if it cost you the match, final etc.
    In fairness he might well have done initially but as he rotated it was on the ground. Deserved a wicket in fairness, brilliant take.
    Soft signal is out and I don't think it was certain enough to overturn the soft signal.

    Right decision for me. Was probably grounded but can't be certain and benefit of the doubt sticks with the soft signal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 64,188
    All over. That will have helped England's Net Run Rate in case it matters in the end.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    That’ll be that then.

    Back next weekend for the convicts, which is likely to be a lot more of a challenge!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    What a ridiculous decision. That was a brilliant catch but it was clearly on the ground, absolutely no question about it.

    TV implied he thought he had a finger under it. No way to tell, and looked like the ball was touching the ground. Shouldn’t matter today, but you’d be pissed if it cost you the match, final etc.
    In fairness he might well have done initially but as he rotated it was on the ground. Deserved a wicket in fairness, brilliant take.
    Soft signal is out and I don't think it was certain enough to overturn the soft signal.

    Right decision for me. Was probably grounded but can't be certain and benefit of the doubt sticks with the soft signal.
    When it's as close as that there's no injustice in it going either way.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,503
    This is a very interesting market.

    And I would want to be very careful about the rules. What happens if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee... but become incapacitated between nomination and election?

    With the two leading players being so elderly, there are a *lot* of edge cases.

    FWIW - my views are

    (1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.

    (2) If Biden is forced to step down mid-term, then (despite all her issues) Harris will be the Democratic nominee. Simply they're not going to kick out the incumbent, no matter how uninspiring she is.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 46,224
    edited October 23
    As COP26 gets nearer reality is dawning and those wanting to personally pay more tax to fund it is in marked decline

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1451941836138979340?t=VymA7DwJvBcVHnC0dfvwFQ&s=19
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,944
    edited October 23
    An easy win for England, but not a very exciting start to the tournament. The other game (Aus v SA) was also pretty low scoring. I've not done the research, but my impression is that recent T20s (e.g. IPL, qualifiers for this one) have been lower scoring than previous competitions - few scores over 180, hardly any over 200. Probably due to the slow wickets, but it could also be a sign that bowlers are getting cannier in this format.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,403
    Sandpit said:

    That’ll be that then.

    Back next weekend for the convicts, which is likely to be a lot more of a challenge!

    Perhaps America will have invaded them by then?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    rcs1000 said:

    (1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.

    Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.

    Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?

    In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.

    Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    edited October 23
    "A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."

    D Mail


    We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 702
    The EU really needs to tighten its rules unless it wants most of Syria and Iraq heading there.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58952867

    This sort of thing is ridiculous:
    lIdris carried on to the Netherlands, where he plans to report to the authorities. He's heard that if he is granted asylum, Dutch family reunification rules will make it possible to bring his wife and twin daughters from Kobane.

    "I've been researching refugee status in Europe," he says. "I think it will take a year or two."

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,570

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 11,957

    rcs1000 said:

    (1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.

    Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.

    Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?

    In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.

    Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
    Trumpism is a religion. If Islam or Christianity are slightly more popular than the other one year, its followers dont swap Mohammed or Jesus for Peter or Paul.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 20,675

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    On the contrary, he confirms everything I have always thought about the French.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 25,144

    rcs1000 said:

    (1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.

    Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.

    Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?

    In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.

    Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
    We still haven’t seen the ‘end of the beginning’ as far as Trump’s legal problems are concerned. Could well be that once that point is reached his house of cards will collapse quite quickly.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 7,197
    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    Yep.

    A French Best-Seller's Radical Argument: Vichy Regime Wasn't All Bad

    https://www.npr.org/2014/11/05/361790018/a-french-best-sellers-radical-argument-vichy-regime-wasnt-all-bad?t=1635007599991

    ...coming to a presidency just across the La Manche shortly.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,393

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457
    tlg86 said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    On the contrary, he confirms everything I have always thought about the French.

    Yes it's Zemmour.

    Big piece on him in this week's Spectator if anyone wants to know more and has the link.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    UK Local R

    Some interesting indications of a fall in R....

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 702

    tlg86 said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    On the contrary, he confirms everything I have always thought about the French.

    Yes it's Zemmour.

    Big piece on him in this week's Spectator if anyone wants to know more and has the link.


    That piece was a pathetic puff piece. The man is actively hostile to Britain and principles of liberal democracy. The way parts of the UK intellectual right coddle up to him just reveals them for the fascist sympathizers they are.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,570

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    Yep.

    A French Best-Seller's Radical Argument: Vichy Regime Wasn't All Bad

    https://www.npr.org/2014/11/05/361790018/a-french-best-sellers-radical-argument-vichy-regime-wasnt-all-bad?t=1635007599991

    ...coming to a presidency just across the La Manche shortly.

    It might not have been but it was scarcely stable. Did they want the Russians to reach Paris?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 44,457

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.

    Sound familiar??

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    UK hospitals

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    UK deaths

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  • AslanAslan Posts: 702

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    France has long had a major pseudo-fascist strain to them. The fact they still adore Napoleon, a warmongering dictator that re-enslaved emancipated slaves, says it all. Britain is very lucky its conservatives embraced mass suffrage in the 1830s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    Age related data

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    Age related data scaled to 100K

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  • RattersRatters Posts: 193

    "A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."

    D Mail


    We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.

    It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.

    The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005
    I plotted all the LTLA level R values

    image

    Yes, a mess, but an interesting one.
  • Ratters said:

    "A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."

    D Mail


    We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.

    It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.

    The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
    It is full on across the media with no balance

    It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
  • CookieCookie Posts: 4,432
    Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,218
    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    The past is ambiguous. We have so often been at war with the French, yet their cultural impact upon this country has been enormous. Our law of property is largely derived from French concepts, along with our military organisation and terminology.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 927
    edited October 23

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.

    Sound familiar??

    From the daily mail article above:

    "Zemmour has been likened to a Gallic Donald Trump, but is more extreme than the former American President.

    The Frenchmen despises immigrants, Left wingers, woke culture and even feminists, whom he blames for weakening France."

    Looking forward to people to getting their heads around potentially 45% of france voting for this. Here he would be proscribed as an extremist. A lot of his reported views cannot even be expressed in the UK.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,318
    edited October 23

    kinabalu said:

    Time for some Truth Social on this one. WH24 is not for ages and it's likely to be someone who isn't Donald Trump vs someone who isn't Joe Biden. 2 bad short priced favourites here imo. You have so many things running for you - both knowns and unknowns - if you lay the pair of them as I've done.

    Fake news!
    :smile:

    On which subject - news - if Trump does get the GOP nomination, WH24 will be an utterly bizarre event. You'll have the 2 candidates in silo'd worlds. Like now but more hermetically sealed off and complete. Truth Social vs whatever it is we call THIS. And what DO we call this? Reality, I guess, for short.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    darkage said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.

    Sound familiar??

    From the daily mail article above:

    "Zemmour has been likened to a Gallic Donald Trump, but is more extreme than the former American President.

    The Frenchmen despises immigrants, Left wingers, woke culture and even feminists, whom he blames for weakening France."

    Looking forward to people to getting their heads around potentially 45% of france voting for this. Here he would be proscribed as an extremist. A lot of his reported views cannot even be expressed in the UK.

    conservative voices are being silenced
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,162
    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142

    Ratters said:

    "A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."

    D Mail


    We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.

    It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.

    The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
    It is full on across the media with no balance

    It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
    ,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,714

    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
    We sank their navy at Mers el-Kebir in 1940
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 2,142
    Aslan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    France has long had a major pseudo-fascist strain to them. The fact they still adore Napoleon, a warmongering dictator that re-enslaved emancipated slaves, says it all. Britain is very lucky its conservatives embraced mass suffrage in the 1830s.
    under 3% = mass suffrage?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    As Biden's approval rating dips well below 50% then that certainly increases Trump's chances. However a lot depends on the midterm elections next year, if the Democrats hold Congress I doubt he will run again. If the GOP win Congress he will certainly run again however.

    I do agree with OGH Buttigieg would probably be a better candidate for the Democrats in 2024 than either Biden or Harris. He could be Macron to Biden's Hollande and Trump's Sarkozy
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,570

    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
    Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited October 23
    darkage said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.

    Sound familiar??

    From the daily mail article above:

    "Zemmour has been likened to a Gallic Donald Trump, but is more extreme than the former American President.

    The Frenchmen despises immigrants, Left wingers, woke culture and even feminists, whom he blames for weakening France."

    Looking forward to people to getting their heads around potentially 45% of france voting for this. Here he would be proscribed as an extremist. A lot of his reported views cannot even be expressed in the UK.

    Yet in the latest poll French runoff polling Zemmour gets 43% in the runoff, ie the same as Boris got in the UK in 2019 and not far off the 46% Trump got in the US in 2016 and 2020

    http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/octobre/9225-p-hi-challenges-v18.pdf
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,747
    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    France has long had a major pseudo-fascist strain to them. The fact they still adore Napoleon, a warmongering dictator that re-enslaved emancipated slaves, says it all. Britain is very lucky its conservatives embraced mass suffrage in the 1830s.
    under 3% = mass suffrage?
    Compared to the modern system where the 1% decide everything?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,376
    edited October 23

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He also said he respects the British.

    '"I respect the British," he said. "They're a great people, who deserve respect. I think the European Commission in Brussels doesn't respect them. They never forgave them for Brexit."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58954015
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 927
    Farooq said:

    darkage said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.

    Sound familiar??

    From the daily mail article above:

    "Zemmour has been likened to a Gallic Donald Trump, but is more extreme than the former American President.

    The Frenchmen despises immigrants, Left wingers, woke culture and even feminists, whom he blames for weakening France."

    Looking forward to people to getting their heads around potentially 45% of france voting for this. Here he would be proscribed as an extremist. A lot of his reported views cannot even be expressed in the UK.

    conservative voices are being silenced
    Up until relatively recently, unfashionable and unpalatable right wing views were mopped up by the tories. Nowadays, they now have no place in our political discourse, being essentially outlawed as hate speech. But they still find expressions; for instance in the Brexit vote; and will continue to do so, because they never quite die. And once they get oxygen, they will spread quickly; particularly when they come as part of a package that offers easy answers to complex questions which the status quo are unable to resolve. Such is the unfortunate and dark art of politics.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 34,922
    And back home, just in time to watch the F1 :D
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,448
    edited October 23
    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
    Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
    Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,005

    Farooq said:

    Aslan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Were they badly executed or should they not have happened at all?
    Shouldn't have happened at all - replaced the Nazis with the even worst occupiers of the Americans. (I take it this guy is a Vichyite.)
    France has long had a major pseudo-fascist strain to them. The fact they still adore Napoleon, a warmongering dictator that re-enslaved emancipated slaves, says it all. Britain is very lucky its conservatives embraced mass suffrage in the 1830s.
    under 3% = mass suffrage?
    Compared to the modern system where the 1% decide everything?
    Don't be ridiculous. The new Upper 10,000 are nowhere near 1% of the population. 0.1%. Maybe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 34,833
    Cookie said:

    Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.

    At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,570
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cookie said:

    The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.

    D Mail

    Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
    It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.

    Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123489/French-far-right-candidate-Eric-Zemmour-declares-English-greatest-enemies-1-000-yrs.html
    He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
    Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
    Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
    Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
    Disappointed you edited that, Agnat sounded a very credible rive gauche anti Anglo Saxon philosopher.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,402

    rcs1000 said:

    (1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.

    Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.

    Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?

    In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.

    Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
    Trumpism is a religion. If Islam or Christianity are slightly more popular than the other one year, its followers dont swap Mohammed or Jesus for Peter or Paul.
    That's a really good take. I thought football teams were a good analogy but this is better, as it explains the complete non acceptance of the result too.
    The Democrats are at a fundamental disadvantage believing in democracy and so forth now - as the Trumpsters believe it is their god given right to rule America.
This discussion has been closed.