(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
Blackpool Tower?
No, the one in Portsmouth surely.
Edit: but on reflection there are three - the square one, the round one, and the modern rotating one.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
Trumpism is a religion. If Islam or Christianity are slightly more popular than the other one year, its followers dont swap Mohammed or Jesus for Peter or Paul.
That's a really good take. I thought football teams were a good analogy but this is better, as it explains the complete non acceptance of the result too. The Democrats are at a fundamental disadvantage believing in democracy and so forth now - as the Trumpsters believe it is their god given right to rule America.
If the Republicans changed their leader as often as Watford the world might be a better place.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He is often/sometimes described as the French Trump and the way the Speccie piece is written he is running rings around the rest of the candidates and sucking up all the media oxygen.
Sound familiar??
From the daily mail article above:
"Zemmour has been likened to a Gallic Donald Trump, but is more extreme than the former American President.
The Frenchmen despises immigrants, Left wingers, woke culture and even feminists, whom he blames for weakening France."
Looking forward to people to getting their heads around potentially 45% of france voting for this. Here he would be proscribed as an extremist. A lot of his reported views cannot even be expressed in the UK.
conservative voices are being silenced
Said no one in the mainstream ever.
Social conservatives often are, the establishment view is generally economically conservative but socially liberal in the UK and USA, certainly in the private sector. In the public sector by contrast the establishment view is economically big government but still also socially liberal.
Economic leftwingers are often seen as misguided but with their heart in the right place, social conservatives and those who prefer the nation state to globalism however are seen as positively dangerous by much of the western elite now
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
Blackpool Tower?
Beauchamp Tower, Salt Tower, Martin’s Tower and the White Tower were on today’s itinerary
If Zemmour stands (and it's now definite that he would be an independent, not the LR candidate), Le Pen drops from 26% to 15%, and Zemmour gets 15 to 18%. If you assume Bertrand is the LR candidate, that means that you could well have a result that looks something like this:
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
Blackpool Tower?
Beauchamp Tower, Salt Tower, Martin’s Tower and the White Tower were on today’s itinerary
St Peter ad Vinculas was a bit of a giveaway, one has to admit.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
Strange thing was, he always thought far more of the Germans than the French. Wouldn’t hear a word against Rommel or von Thoma. Enjoyed a good joke about the French.
Mind you, he hated the Japanese. Complained even when they showed Japanese golfers at the US Open.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Tipped by who?
Has he actually declared his candidacy yet ?
No.
But he's going round doing more and more campaign type things.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
The past is ambiguous. We have so often been at war with the French, yet their cultural impact upon this country has been enormous. Our law of property is largely derived from French concepts, along with our military organisation and terminology.
We've also fought alongside the French twice in the last 120 years, after they were invaded by the Germans.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
Strange thing was, he always thought far more of the Germans than the French. Wouldn’t hear a word against Rommel or von Thoma. Enjoyed a good joke about the French.
Mind you, he hated the Japanese. Complained even when they showed Japanese golfers at the US Open.
Mine was in the RN - was of an age to be about to be sent out to the Pacific when the bombs fell. Didn't have a lot to say about the Germans but wouldn't hear anything against nuclear weapons in later life.
Ended up being dragooned into the school twinning programme for lack of any other male teacher - never having shown any interest whatsoever before - and in the end went to France every year to see the friends he made there. For almost 45 years.
Edit: he was a bit twitchy about the Japanese - evidently from what he heard in the mess deck. I never dared buy him any Japanese whisky (I usually got him some old reliable plus something new each birthday and Christmas).
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
We sank their navy at Mers el-Kebir in 1940
Only the battleship Bretagne and a tug boat were sunk outright.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
We still haven’t seen the ‘end of the beginning’ as far as Trump’s legal problems are concerned. Could well be that once that point is reached his house of cards will collapse quite quickly.
If Trump has an implosion, I suspect it will be a financial one.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
If Zemmour stands (and it's now definite that he would be an independent, not the LR candidate), Le Pen drops from 26% to 15%, and Zemmour gets 15 to 18%. If you assume Bertrand is the LR candidate, that means that you could well have a result that looks something like this:
That's a pretty tight three way split for second. If Bertrand were to come second, then he should probably be odds on for the Presidency.
Bertrand still loses 53%-47% for Macron in the latest poll while has a tie 50%-50% with Macron in the one before.
However if he does not get through to the runoff which still looks likely to be between Macron and Le Pen or Zemmour then I expect that Les Republicans will just focus on trying to get most seats in the National Assemblee which also votes next Spring
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
We still haven’t seen the ‘end of the beginning’ as far as Trump’s legal problems are concerned. Could well be that once that point is reached his house of cards will collapse quite quickly.
If Trump has an implosion, I suspect it will be a financial one.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
At the Tower today. Absolutely bumping. Tourists back in droves and a wedding at St Peter’s which was nice to see
Blackpool Tower?
Beauchamp Tower, Salt Tower, Martin’s Tower and the White Tower were on today’s itinerary
St Peter ad Vinculas was a bit of a giveaway, one has to admit.
Given I didn’t name it in full you get a bonus point
If Zemmour stands (and it's now definite that he would be an independent, not the LR candidate), Le Pen drops from 26% to 15%, and Zemmour gets 15 to 18%. If you assume Bertrand is the LR candidate, that means that you could well have a result that looks something like this:
That's a pretty tight three way split for second. If Bertrand were to come second, then he should probably be odds on for the Presidency.
Bertrand still loses 53%-47% for Macron in the latest poll while has a tie 50%-50% with Macron in the one before.
However if he does not get through to the runoff which still looks likely to be between Macron and Le Pen or Zemmour then I expect that Les Republicans will just focus on trying to get most seats in the National Assemblee which also votes next Spring
I don't disagree with that: Macron v Le Pen is still the most likely run-off. The appearance of Zemmour, though, does increase the chance of Bertrand making the final two.
Yes, certainly a suggestion that the catch up spike in the SW is, if not over, then not as bad as i feared.
My father was panicked about that, thinking the virus had suddenly gone mad in his area (he lives in Gloucester) until I explained what had happened. He then agreed that made a lot more sense.
Yes, certainly a suggestion that the catch up spike in the SW is, if not over, then not as bad as i feared.
As ive been saying... interesting that the ons rates for the sw are not out of line with other parts of the U.K., so clearly our current ‘case’ rates are being heavily enhanced by retesting (even accounting for the lag in the one data). If the sw spike was down to more genuine spread and cases, it would be showing in the ons figures, and it’s not.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
It's taken a hundred years or so but it sounds like the Daily Mail has at last found a right wing nutter that it doesn't like.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
It's taken a hundred years or so but it sounds like the Daily Mail has at last found a right wing nutter that it doesn't like.
Yes, certainly a suggestion that the catch up spike in the SW is, if not over, then not as bad as i feared.
My father was panicked about that, thinking the virus had suddenly gone mad in his area (he lives in Gloucester) until I explained what had happened. He then agreed that made a lot more sense.
Thank you, PB.
Although anecdata time. Last Saturday I attended a thank you NHS craft fair in my parents village. My dad popped over today and related a local Covid spike, that villagers are linking to the craft fair. TBF not many masks in use... I’ve not succumbed yet...
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
One thing the GOP doesn't have, which they did have last time round is the incumbent vice president.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
We went to see our daughters in a dance and drama show this evening, very much Guardian and organic food territory (obvs - why would anyone live anywhere else?). We were told that mask wearing was optional - whereupon well over 90% of attendees put their masks on.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
I think if iSage are in favour of plan B plus some extra stuff, that’s a pretty clear sign that it’s (a) not needed and (b) a very bad idea.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
Highest mask wearing place I went to recently was probably Waitrose a week last thursday... Felt like we stood out by not wearing a mask, although epidemiologically of course THEY were keeping ME safe
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
the media is driven by news stories
What else should they cover instead?
There is a responsibility to have balance. It’s the shouting fire in the theatre situation again.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
You sure? They say they will plant lots of trees, they don't say where. Trees do like water.
They’ll probably follow the UAE playbook - nuclear power stations and a few hundred square kilometres of solar parks.
Newer cities in the Middle East use ‘grey’ water for irrigation, which is half-treated waste water, as opposed to using clean water which is expensively desalinated seawater.
The cars will still be V8s for a while though, not many Teslas around when petrol is cheap and electricity expensive.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
The pandemic in the UK is morphing into endemic and just as flu is dealt with by yearly vaccines, so will covid
The constant attacks from the media coming from the left completely ignore the charts shown at Downing Street and elsewhere as they do not fit their agenda
The JCVI should be condemned across the political spectrum for their inexcusable decision to delay vaccinating the young people and they need disbanding
I am not a fan of Boris but on this he has my support and I have no reason to believe I am wrong when looking at this analytically rather than politically
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
We went to see our daughters in a dance and drama show this evening, very much Guardian and organic food territory (obvs - why would anyone live anywhere else?). We were told that mask wearing was optional - whereupon well over 90% of attendees put their masks on.
Then all went to the pub or an eatery afterwards and took them off.
Have to say I didn't see much evidence of mask wearing in Asda in Barking this morning.
Is Zemmour a conservative? Really?
On to more immediate matters and the Bulgarian general election on November 14th (just three weeks away, election fans).
The latest poll (changes since July 2021 election):
GERB/SDS: 22.5% (-1.0) Coalition for Bulgaria: 15.1% (+1.7) We Continue the Change: 13.4% (+13.4) There is Such a Nation: 12.2% (-11.9) Democratic Bulgaria: 11.2% (-1.4) Movement of Rights and Freedoms: 10.8% (+0.1) Stand Up BG!: 3.7% (-1.3) Revival: 2.9% (-0.1) Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)
The big change is the rise of the new "We Continue the Change" (PP) and the splintering of "There is Such a Nation" (ITN). It looks as though Borisov will be back as Prime Minister. The Coalition for Bulgaria has been out of power since a heavy defeat in 2014 - they have worked with the Movement of Rights and Freedoms in the past.
We mustn't forget the Bulgarian Presidential election is also happening - the rivalry between Borisov and President Rumen Radev was one of the factors behind the political instability which has bedevilled the country in the past 12-18 months.
Radev is supported by the Coalition of Bulgaria and PP suggesting a possible coalition. His main rival is Anastas Gerdzhikov who is backed by Borisov and GERB. However, the latest poll has Radev on 51.2%, miles ahead.
The question is whether the anti-GERB elements can find enough common ground to hammer out a coalition agreement.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
There is some correlation, 60% of Remainers say they would feel much less safe in a crowded place if people were not wearing facemasks. However only 50% of Leavers say they would feel much less safe in such a situation
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
But think of the Scots Greys and 42nd at Waterloo etc.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
changed? The precedent was doubtless set by his ancestors hundreds of years prior.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
The idea is that Remainers secretly want the population wiped out by Covid. That will reflect poorly on Boris and by implication Brexit.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
The idea is that Remainers secretly want the population wiped out by Covid. That will reflect poorly on Boris and by implication Brexit.
Not all the population, just those who voted leave...
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
But those aren't the rules of the US constitution. And it would only be changed if the Republican lost. I have always given you the benefit of the doubt on here. But if you now become an apologist for the end of US democracy then you deserve to be called every name under the sun.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
I thought your earlier comment on Zemmour's polling interesting.
In a multi-party election, 43% usually means you win - in a Presidential election with two main candidates and a few fringe candidates, 46% can be enough for victory but not always.
In a run-off with just two candidates, 43% always loses.
A little bit of comparing apples with helicopters.
By the way, did you suggest last evening that if you had a vote in the French Presidential election, you would support the LR candidate in the first round (which I understand completely) but if the run off were between Zemmour and Macron, you'd vote for Zemmour? If I have misrepresented your view, I apologise.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
But those aren't the rules of the US constitution. And it would only be changed if the Republican lost. I have always given you the benefit of the doubt on here. But if you now become an apologist for the end of US democracy then you deserve to be called every name under the sun.
The rules of the US constitution simply state that Congress must affirm EC results and select the President and VP.
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 allows both Chambers to object to states EC results, so if both the Senate and the House throw out the EC results of a number of key swing states for one candidate they can then make the opposing candidate the winner and elect them as winner of the EC.
That is not the end of democracy, as I said merely the elected House of Representatives and the elected Senate (remember it needs majorities of both to uphold EC objections) determining the President
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
The idea is that Remainers secretly want the population wiped out by Covid. That will reflect poorly on Boris and by implication Brexit.
Not all the population, just those who voted leave...
And they want to achieve this by [checks notes] being overcautious with masks and lockdowns. Sneaky, remoaners. Veeery sneaky.
I think this started as a comparison of behaviours. Not quite sure how we’ve reached remainers wanting wipe out leavers using Covid...
Have to say I didn't see much evidence of mask wearing in Asda in Barking this morning.
Is Zemmour a conservative? Really?
On to more immediate matters and the Bulgarian general election on November 14th (just three weeks away, election fans).
The latest poll (changes since July 2021 election):
GERB/SDS: 22.5% (-1.0) Coalition for Bulgaria: 15.1% (+1.7) We Continue the Change: 13.4% (+13.4) There is Such a Nation: 12.2% (-11.9) Democratic Bulgaria: 11.2% (-1.4) Movement of Rights and Freedoms: 10.8% (+0.1) Stand Up BG!: 3.7% (-1.3) Revival: 2.9% (-0.1) Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)
The big change is the rise of the new "We Continue the Change" (PP) and the splintering of "There is Such a Nation" (ITN). It looks as though Borisov will be back as Prime Minister. The Coalition for Bulgaria has been out of power since a heavy defeat in 2014 - they have worked with the Movement of Rights and Freedoms in the past.
We mustn't forget the Bulgarian Presidential election is also happening - the rivalry between Borisov and President Rumen Radev was one of the factors behind the political instability which has bedevilled the country in the past 12-18 months.
Radev is supported by the Coalition of Bulgaria and PP suggesting a possible coalition. His main rival is Anastas Gerdzhikov who is backed by Borisov and GERB. However, the latest poll has Radev on 51.2%, miles ahead.
The question is whether the anti-GERB elements can find enough common ground to hammer out a coalition agreement.
Zemmour is a Gaullist conservative on economics, a French nationalist and social conservative
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
I thought your earlier comment on Zemmour's polling interesting.
In a multi-party election, 43% usually means you win - in a Presidential election with two main candidates and a few fringe candidates, 46% can be enough for victory but not always.
In a run-off with just two candidates, 43% always loses.
A little bit of comparing apples with helicopters.
By the way, did you suggest last evening that if you had a vote in the French Presidential election, you would support the LR candidate in the first round (which I understand completely) but if the run off were between Zemmour and Macron, you'd vote for Zemmour? If I have misrepresented your view, I apologise.
Yes, I would vote for the LR candidate in the first round and against all opponents in the presidential runoff, Macron against Le Pen and I would consider voting for Zemmour against Macron if I were French. Though of course I am not.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There used to be a cool exhibition near Urquhart castle on the west side. I ran the Loch Ness marathon once and definitely didn’t see the monster, and I took my time too.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
"A Government scientific adviser said he is 'very fearful' there will be another 'lockdown Christmas'. Professor Peter Openshaw, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said case numbers and death rates are currently 'unacceptable'."
D Mail
We are all "fearful" of a winter lockdown, but mainly because scientists like this fellah (has anyone heard of him before today??) are likely to be pushing for one and ignoring the stupendous damage they do.
It does seem the usual suspects are trying to apply concerted pressure in a similar way to what we saw before the last of the rules were relaxed.
The trouble they have is that cases will likely be falling again in a couple of weeks, so the government just needs to hold off until then.
It is full on across the media with no balance
It looks like iSage's last stand and no matter how much unbalanced pressure Boris needs to hold the line until after half term at least
,,,do you think that iSage controls the media?
It dominates it
riiiiiight
The issue is, like the confected ‘fuel crisis’ (over I note), the media is driven by news stories, and iSAGE is happily, and shrilly providing them. There has been little attempt in the media to provide a diversity of opinion. There are arguments for imposing plan b, but there are counter arguments too.
Yes, they are a bunch of useful idiots, who can be relied upon to critisise whatever is the current policy.
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Remoaners? I'm a little confused now I thought we were talking about Covid.
The idea is that Remainers secretly want the population wiped out by Covid. That will reflect poorly on Boris and by implication Brexit.
Not all the population, just those who voted leave...
And they want to achieve this by [checks notes] being overcautious with masks and lockdowns. Sneaky, remoaners. Veeery sneaky.
I think this started as a comparison of behaviours. Not quite sure how we’ve reached remainers wanting wipe out leavers using Covid...
It's all down to iSage controlling the media. Everything else flows logically from that. If that turns out not to be true, who knows what else we're wrong about? Heliocentricity, the atomic theory of matter, the Laffer curve... it's a frightening thought.
No one is alleging that iSAGE control the media, it’s just that the media has them on speed dial...
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
My father in law used the Caley Canal regularly to return to Lossiemouth from his fishing in Ireland and we have twice spent a week in a cabin cruiser sailing the whole length of the canal
A day sail from Inverness should be most informative
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
I drove up the other side of the loch and stopped at "Lochness View":
I stood by the loch and there were no boats or anything about and no wind. Out of nowhere about four or five quite big waves suddenly appeared and broke on the shore. I can see why people would have been spooked by that body of water.
The far-Right French firebrand tipped to become his country's new President has described the English as 'our greatest enemies for a thousand years' and attacked the D-Day landings.
D Mail
Oh dear. Zemmour is it? That's problematic for the British Right as they were rather warming to him over Frexit.
It was "a liberation but also occupation and colonisation by the Americans". Trump-style rhetoric - sounds scandalous so gets coverage, but he'll point to the "liberation" to deny being pro-German.
Some here also go on about the French being ancient enemies and seem to actively dislike them. It's a minority sport on both sides.
He's not, objectively, wrong though is he? The French and the English have, over the past 1000 years, been each other's greatest enemies. Doesn't mean we can't get along in the present but our past has been, er, fractious.
Hasn't it been over two hundred years since we fought the French?
Mers-el-Kébir was 81 years ago.
Can get a bit later than that. Operations Torch and Exporter, Ironclad and Stream Line Jane. That takes you to 1943. A gnat's whisker less than 80 years.
My grandfather fought against the French in Syria in 1941.
Mine fought alongside the French in 1915-1918 (well, on the Western Front in the UK army)! How things changed.
Strange thing was, he always thought far more of the Germans than the French. Wouldn’t hear a word against Rommel or von Thoma. Enjoyed a good joke about the French.
Mind you, he hated the Japanese. Complained even when they showed Japanese golfers at the US Open.
Mine was in the RN - was of an age to be about to be sent out to the Pacific when the bombs fell. Didn't have a lot to say about the Germans but wouldn't hear anything against nuclear weapons in later life.
Ended up being dragooned into the school twinning programme for lack of any other male teacher - never having shown any interest whatsoever before - and in the end went to France every year to see the friends he made there. For almost 45 years.
Edit: he was a bit twitchy about the Japanese - evidently from what he heard in the mess deck. I never dared buy him any Japanese whisky (I usually got him some old reliable plus something new each birthday and Christmas).
My Dad would never buy a Japanese car. He was responsible for buying his firms company cars, back in the 70s and 80s. He bought the cars from Arnold Clark, the man, not the company. At that time, Arnold Clark only has a few showrooms in the south side of Glasgow, and refused to have any franchises for Japanese cars. How times change!
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
A few pints of Heavy will increase your chances of seeing the monster.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
I would advise you that your son will be disappointed.
Trip into Manchester for lunch with daughters 1 and 2 today. The city was buzzing. Thousands of people out, engaged in what I can only assume was the very early stages of a massive night out. Virtually no masks in sight. We went in on the tram from Sale Water Park, which has already picked up traffic from Wythenshawe (bluntly, ex-council territory) - mask wearing less than 10%. As we progressed through Chorlton (Guardian and organic supermarket territory), mask wearing of new passengers well over 50%.
We went to see our daughters in a dance and drama show this evening, very much Guardian and organic food territory (obvs - why would anyone live anywhere else?). We were told that mask wearing was optional - whereupon well over 90% of attendees put their masks on.
Then all went to the pub or an eatery afterwards and took them off.
Quite possibly. I came home and hung out the washing.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
I drove up the other side of the loch and stopped at "Lochness View":
I stood by the loch and there were no boats or anything about and no wind. Out of nowhere about four or five quite big waves suddenly appeared and broke on the shore. I can see why people would have been spooked by that body of water.
We were caught in a squall in the middle of Loch Ness in our hired cabin cruiser and it was very rough
Fortunately both myself and my son ( now RNLI crew) knew how to steer to safety but it could be a scary exercise for anyone untrained
However @Darkage please do not be put off, the day boats are substantial and very safe
Really interesting thread on where we are with covid:
"exit to endemicity"
Ewan Birney @ewanbirney A COVID viewpoint from increasingly cold London. TL;DR the world vaccination situation is improving, but there is a long way to go; Europe is entering a winter exit to endemicity surge; the UK is a leading country in this exit surge with internal angst, strife and screw ups
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
There's the exhibition centre at Drumnadrochit as well I think, although watching from the shore is much better. Apart from the classic site at Castle Urquart I find the S side of the loch much nicer. It is away from the busy A82 and thus much quieter for Nessie to lurk on. The Falls of Foyers are also worth a visit (2 or 3 mile walk), although they need a lot of water to be really impressive because the pumped hydro scheme reduces the flow.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
I would advise you that your son will be disappointed.
Yes, I would vote for the LR candidate in the first round and against all opponents in the presidential runoff, Macron against Le Pen and I would consider voting for Zemmour against Macron if I were French. Though of course I am not.
I would vote for LR in the legislative elections
As an aside, do you have a strong view on who the LR should choose as their Presidential candidate? Bertrand looks to have the strongest polling though he trails Le Pen and is still well below what Fillon managed last time.
Barnier and Pecresse don't look to be making much of an impact.
I'm struggling to see how the LR candidate gets into the top two - Fillon only just failed last time but the numbers look poor for both LR and the Socialists currently.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
I drove up the other side of the loch and stopped at "Lochness View":
I stood by the loch and there were no boats or anything about and no wind. Out of nowhere about four or five quite big waves suddenly appeared and broke on the shore. I can see why people would have been spooked by that body of water.
We were caught in a squall in the middle of Loch Ness in our hired cabin cruiser and it was very rough
Fortunately both myself and my son ( now RNLI crew) knew how to steer to safety but it could be a scary exercise for anyone untrained
However @Darkage please do not be put off, the day boats are substantial and very safe
Yeah thanks BigG - I've looked in to the cruise. Brilliant idea and we're definetly going to go on one, weather permitting.
Apologies to interrupt the discussion; I have some Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
There are lots of Nessy themed spots as I recall, but the 'best' place for sightings is Castle Urquhart
I drove up the other side of the loch and stopped at "Lochness View":
I stood by the loch and there were no boats or anything about and no wind. Out of nowhere about four or five quite big waves suddenly appeared and broke on the shore. I can see why people would have been spooked by that body of water.
We were caught in a squall in the middle of Loch Ness in our hired cabin cruiser and it was very rough
Fortunately both myself and my son ( now RNLI crew) knew how to steer to safety but it could be a scary exercise for anyone untrained
However @Darkage please do not be put off, the day boats are substantial and very safe
Yeah thanks BigG - I've looked in to the cruise. Brilliant idea and we're definetly going to go on one, weather permitting.
Very pleased to help
We are very familiar with the area and the loch cruise will give you all the information on Loch Ness, the monster and so much more
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
But those aren't the rules of the US constitution. And it would only be changed if the Republican lost. I have always given you the benefit of the doubt on here. But if you now become an apologist for the end of US democracy then you deserve to be called every name under the sun.
The rules of the US constitution simply state that Congress must affirm EC results and select the President and VP.
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 allows both Chambers to object to states EC results, so if both the Senate and the House throw out the EC results of a number of key swing states for one candidate they can then make the opposing candidate the winner and elect them as winner of the EC.
That is not the end of democracy, as I said merely the elected House of Representatives and the elected Senate (remember it needs majorities of both to uphold EC objections) determining the President
You can try to legitimize the overturning of an election all you want but you are still justifying abandoning democracy. You are a fascist and an enemy of Anglo-American values.
(1) If the Republicans struggle at the mid-terms (i.e. lose the Senate outright *or* fail to gain the House), then Trump ceases to be a lock for the nomination. In this scenario, DeSantis (despite recent issues) has to be clear Republican favorite.
Isn't the mistake here to view the situation through political orthodoxy. Trump lost the last election. He lost the popular vote twice in a row. In the political orthodoxy that would mark him out as a big fat loser and he wouldn't have a hope in hell of the nomination. And to add to all that he is in compete denial of his defeat and provoked his supporters to storm the Capitol.
Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?
In the reality bubble inhabited by Trump supporters defeat is victory.
Though I suppose this argument is somewhat moot, given that the Democrats seem to be trying hard not to win the mid-terms.
"Why would the GOP under-performing in the mid-terms have any bearing on his nomination prospects?"
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
Amazing how this is becoming a mainstream expectation - that America is about to junk democracy. I'm not there with it yet. My Overton window isn't quite that wide.
Even then it would not be junking democracy, just making the elected legislature elect the President. Actually no different to how Italy, Germany or India and South Africa already elect their Presidents and there is nothing in the US constitution to stop the Congress electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results
But those aren't the rules of the US constitution. And it would only be changed if the Republican lost. I have always given you the benefit of the doubt on here. But if you now become an apologist for the end of US democracy then you deserve to be called every name under the sun.
The rules of the US constitution simply state that Congress must affirm EC results and select the President and VP.
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 allows both Chambers to object to states EC results, so if both the Senate and the House throw out the EC results of a number of key swing states for one candidate they can then make the opposing candidate the winner and elect them as winner of the EC.
That is not the end of democracy, as I said merely the elected House of Representatives and the elected Senate (remember it needs majorities of both to uphold EC objections) determining the President
You can try to legitimize the overturning of an election all you want but you are still justifying abandoning democracy. You are a fascist and an enemy of Anglo-American values.
It is not 'abandoning democracy', US voters also elect the Congress which there is nothing to stop electing the President if both chambers object to the EC results.
Overthrowing democracy would be an army coup to make Trump President
Yes, I would vote for the LR candidate in the first round and against all opponents in the presidential runoff, Macron against Le Pen and I would consider voting for Zemmour against Macron if I were French. Though of course I am not.
I would vote for LR in the legislative elections
As an aside, do you have a strong view on who the LR should choose as their Presidential candidate? Bertrand looks to have the strongest polling though he trails Le Pen and is still well below what Fillon managed last time.
Barnier and Pecresse don't look to be making much of an impact.
I'm struggling to see how the LR candidate gets into the top two - Fillon only just failed last time but the numbers look poor for both LR and the Socialists currently.
Bertrand polls better than Barnier certainly and Pecresse and the other LR candidates.
At the moment it looks like a Zemmour or Le Pen v Macron runoff, the LR will likely have to focus on the legislative elections
Comments
Edit: but on reflection there are three - the square one, the round one, and the modern rotating one.
Economic leftwingers are often seen as misguided but with their heart in the right place, social conservatives and those who prefer the nation state to globalism however are seen as positively dangerous by much of the western elite now
If Zemmour stands (and it's now definite that he would be an independent, not the LR candidate), Le Pen drops from 26% to 15%, and Zemmour gets 15 to 18%. If you assume Bertrand is the LR candidate, that means that you could well have a result that looks something like this:
Macron - 25%
Zemmour - 15%
Bertrand - 15%
Le Pen - 15%
That's a pretty tight three way split for second. If Bertrand were to come second, then he should probably be odds on for the Presidency.
Mind you, he hated the Japanese. Complained even when they showed Japanese golfers at the US Open.
But he's going round doing more and more campaign type things.
Ended up being dragooned into the school twinning programme for lack of any other male teacher - never having shown any interest whatsoever before - and in the end went to France every year to see the friends he made there. For almost 45 years.
Edit: he was a bit twitchy about the Japanese - evidently from what he heard in the mess deck. I never dared buy him any Japanese whisky (I usually got him some old reliable plus something new each birthday and Christmas).
However if he does not get through to the runoff which still looks likely to be between Macron and Le Pen or Zemmour then I expect that Les Republicans will just focus on trying to get most seats in the National Assemblee which also votes next Spring
http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/octobre/9225-p-hi-challenges-v18.pdf
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Presentation-LAZARE-DEF-19.10.2021-18h15.pdf
Thank you, PB.
Main reasoning behind this hypothesis methinks, is that IF the Republicans do win back control of BOTH housed of Congress, then Trump will count on the GOP declaring him the winner regardless of the actual popular vote results as translated into electoral college votes.
O, for a Q
As others have said, what we’re seeing now is like the last cry of the Remoaners from 2019, desparate to get any attention they can, as they fight against the inevitable. What are they all going to do with their lives, when the pandemic’s over and Newsnight stops calling?
Felt like we stood out by not wearing a mask, although epidemiologically of course THEY were keeping ME safe
And then they'll use that water the trees.
Newer cities in the Middle East use ‘grey’ water for irrigation, which is half-treated waste water, as opposed to using clean water which is expensively desalinated seawater.
The cars will still be V8s for a while though, not many Teslas around when petrol is cheap and electricity expensive.
The constant attacks from the media coming from the left completely ignore the charts shown at Downing Street and elsewhere as they do not fit their agenda
The JCVI should be condemned across the political spectrum for their inexcusable decision to delay vaccinating the young people and they need disbanding
I am not a fan of Boris but on this he has my support and I have no reason to believe I am wrong when looking at this analytically rather than politically
You're saying that oil is useful for many things other than transport fuels - plastics, etc.
Have to say I didn't see much evidence of mask wearing in Asda in Barking this morning.
Is Zemmour a conservative? Really?
On to more immediate matters and the Bulgarian general election on November 14th (just three weeks away, election fans).
The latest poll (changes since July 2021 election):
GERB/SDS: 22.5% (-1.0)
Coalition for Bulgaria: 15.1% (+1.7)
We Continue the Change: 13.4% (+13.4)
There is Such a Nation: 12.2% (-11.9)
Democratic Bulgaria: 11.2% (-1.4)
Movement of Rights and Freedoms: 10.8% (+0.1)
Stand Up BG!: 3.7% (-1.3)
Revival: 2.9% (-0.1)
Bulgarian National Movement: 2.3% (-0.8)
The big change is the rise of the new "We Continue the Change" (PP) and the splintering of "There is Such a Nation" (ITN). It looks as though Borisov will be back as Prime Minister. The Coalition for Bulgaria has been out of power since a heavy defeat in 2014 - they have worked with the Movement of Rights and Freedoms in the past.
We mustn't forget the Bulgarian Presidential election is also happening - the rivalry between Borisov and President Rumen Radev was one of the factors behind the political instability which has bedevilled the country in the past 12-18 months.
Radev is supported by the Coalition of Bulgaria and PP suggesting a possible coalition. His main rival is Anastas Gerdzhikov who is backed by Borisov and GERB. However, the latest poll has Radev on 51.2%, miles ahead.
The question is whether the anti-GERB elements can find enough common ground to hammer out a coalition agreement.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/health/survey-results/daily/2021/10/20/5228e/2
I had assumed desalination and trees in the sand.
In a multi-party election, 43% usually means you win - in a Presidential election with two main candidates and a few fringe candidates, 46% can be enough for victory but not always.
In a run-off with just two candidates, 43% always loses.
A little bit of comparing apples with helicopters.
By the way, did you suggest last evening that if you had a vote in the French Presidential election, you would support the LR candidate in the first round (which I understand completely) but if the run off were between Zemmour and Macron, you'd vote for Zemmour? If I have misrepresented your view, I apologise.
The Electoral Count Act of 1887 allows both Chambers to object to states EC results, so if both the Senate and the House throw out the EC results of a number of key swing states for one candidate they can then make the opposing candidate the winner and elect them as winner of the EC.
That is not the end of democracy, as I said merely the elected House of Representatives and the elected Senate (remember it needs majorities of both to uphold EC objections) determining the President
Scotland related travel questions. I am spending 3 days in inverness with my wife and son; we have a hire car. Son wants to see the Loch Ness monster. I wondered if anyone who is familiar with that part of the world has any advice/suggestions? Would be much appreciated. Cheers.
I would vote for LR in the legislative elections
A day sail from Inverness should be most informative
A link here
https://www.jacobite.co.uk/
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Lochness+View/@57.3237944,-4.427559,2973m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m12!1m6!3m5!1s0x488f13e20178670b:0x996126cfcd3d2df0!2sUrquhart+Castle!8m2!3d57.3241399!4d-4.4420012!3m4!1s0x488f13bb28ca7031:0xc744fdf046442a02!8m2!3d57.3239032!4d-4.4081666?hl=en
I stood by the loch and there were no boats or anything about and no wind. Out of nowhere about four or five quite big waves suddenly appeared and broke on the shore. I can see why people would have been spooked by that body of water.
Fortunately both myself and my son ( now RNLI crew) knew how to steer to safety but it could be a scary exercise for anyone untrained
However @Darkage please do not be put off, the day boats are substantial and very safe
"exit to endemicity"
Ewan Birney
@ewanbirney
A COVID viewpoint from increasingly cold London. TL;DR the world vaccination situation is improving, but there is a long way to go; Europe is entering a winter exit to endemicity surge; the UK is a leading country in this exit surge with internal angst, strife and screw ups
https://twitter.com/ewanbirney/status/1451945802646138887
You can go on a boat trip of course...
Barnier and Pecresse don't look to be making much of an impact.
I'm struggling to see how the LR candidate gets into the top two - Fillon only just failed last time but the numbers look poor for both LR and the Socialists currently.
We are very familiar with the area and the loch cruise will give you all the information on Loch Ness, the monster and so much more
Enjoy
May upset Labour supporters but @bigjohnowls wants him for Labour leader
Overthrowing democracy would be an army coup to make Trump President
At the moment it looks like a Zemmour or Le Pen v Macron runoff, the LR will likely have to focus on the legislative elections