My main disagreement is around Ukraine: I don't think Trump has the power to make them cede half the country, so long as the UK and EU continue to step up military support. (View Post)

Trump imprisoned the week after the Tories get humiliated would be a hilarious start to the month. Fingers crossed... (View Post)

Yet when the small swing towards Labour since the election was called gets unwound, there will be much more excitement and extrapolation of trends... (View Post)

Exactly. The Tories need a trend to occur. There has been no trend. It's probably reasonable to expect more volatility in voting intentions during an election campaign, which is why 'no tre… (View Post)

1 week down of the campaign and no signs of swingback yet (looking at the polls in aggregate). And it's been a week where the Tories have dominated the news with policy announcements. 5 weeks le… (View Post)