politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at ge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels
The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015.
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First!0
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2nd in the insomniacs sweepstake.0
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Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
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It is out there, but with the domination of the Brexit campaign by the internal squabbling factions of the Conservative party it is hard to hear it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
I don't think that the % intention to vote will go up until the Labour party and Trade Unions get campaigning. Neither is in great shape at the moment.
If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.0 -
O/T
For anyone worried about Skynet. Microsoft just killed the first AI to "reach sentience" when it went from innocent to Trump supporter in 24hrs after learning about life from reading Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/03/24/microsofts-teen-girl-ai-turns-into-a-hitler-loving-sex-robot-wit/0 -
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
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Indigo,
That Microsoft story is very funny.0 -
I love the idea of a cool tech-savvy teenage girl explaining that Bush was behind 9/11 and praising Hitler.0
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I expect the validity of the outcome to be questioned in three months time.foxinsoxuk said:
It is out there, but with the domination of the Brexit campaign by the internal squabbling factions of the Conservative party it is hard to hear it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
I don't think that the % intention to vote will go up until the Labour party and Trade Unions get campaigning. Neither is in great shape at the moment.
If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.0 -
Mike - That very low 47% who responded 10/10 certain to vote in yesterday's poll certainly caught my eye and I agree with you that on this basis, it now appears highly likely that the turnout in the referendum will be markedly lower than the 66% who voted in the 2015 GE.
Accordingly, I've grabbed all the £20 available on Betfair's 55% - 60% band at a seemingly generous 7.6, plus a "saver" on their <55% band. Taken together, possibly my best bet of the year so far, in terms of value.
So far as I can see none of the conventional bookies are offering this turnout market, unless anyone knows otherwise.0 -
The people boring the pants off people and spreading scare stories are doninating both sides of the debate. It has not been edifying so far and I doubt that it will improve much. We get garbage information in distorted form, in such a way that possibly a bare half of people will bother to turnout. Many or most of those will be voting for something that does not exist. If we vote Leave it will mostly be on a false prospectus as we sign up to the EEA and 4 freedoms immediately. Remain ditto as the EU evolves.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.0 -
Which is also a crap way of doing it because largely the population have a choice of two parties will almost the same view on everything, and a few fringe fruitcakes.foxinsoxuk said:No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.
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I would favour STV in multimember constituencies myself.Indigo said:
Which is also a crap way of doing it because largely the population have a choice of two parties will almost the same view on everything, and a few fringe fruitcakes.foxinsoxuk said:No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.
I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band, but whoever wins the whining will continue from both sides. We will wind up with a deal with Europe that to most sane people looks very similar to what the EU looks like and most of our trade will also be with the EU. In another decade or two we will probably rejoin!0 -
Sounds like this "AI" was not so far removed from a version I wrote in BASIC on a Commodore PET in 1981.Indigo said:O/T
For anyone worried about Skynet. Microsoft just killed the first AI to "reach sentience" when it went from innocent to Trump supporter in 24hrs after learning about life from reading Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/03/24/microsofts-teen-girl-ai-turns-into-a-hitler-loving-sex-robot-wit/
It was very good at parsing the sentences you fed it, and regurgitating them back as new questions or statements involving the newly-acquired nouns. We soon found ways to make it say ridiculous and hysterical things.
"I would like to have sex with you."
"...Why thank-you, I would like to have sex with you, too!"
"Who is Hitler?"
"...I have had sex with Hitler"
"When?"
"...Last Week"
"Hitler is dead"
"...Hitler is [sic] dead when I have had sex with him last week"0 -
"I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band"foxinsoxuk said:
I would favour STV in multimember constituencies myself.Indigo said:
Which is also a crap way of doing it because largely the population have a choice of two parties will almost the same view on everything, and a few fringe fruitcakes.foxinsoxuk said:No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.
I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band, but whoever wins the whining will continue from both sides. We will wind up with a deal with Europe that to most sane people looks very similar to what the EU looks like and most of our trade will also be with the EU. In another decade or two we will probably rejoin!
Really? I see very little prospect of that, especially in the light of the poll yesterday showing only 47% were 10/10 certain to vote. Prior to the 2015 GE, the polls were typically showing around 76% as being that same 10/10 certain to vote, yet ultimately only 66% took the trouble to do so. My difficulty this morning was in deciding which was the better bet at broadly similar odds between the referendum turnout being 55% - 60% or < 55%. I opted for the former but fear it might be the latter, hence my decision to take out a saver on the lower band.
Far from "interesting picking up over time", I fear it is just as likely, if not more so, to subside!0 -
Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.0
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Yep - one of the reasons I have always felt Leave would win is tha this is not an issue that many voters care about. Most of those who do care want out.
That said, if Remain does somehow scrape it, voters will not forgive a party that continues to obsess about this issue.0 -
The (former?) picture editor of the Guardian must want the earth to open and swallow him up:
https://twitter.com/fourfourtweet/status/7131544516919787520 -
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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The Elite are arguing among themselves as voters look on.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
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Yes ..peter_from_putney said:
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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It's slightly misleading and unfair to call our current political leaders an "elite".SouthamObserver said:
The Elite are arguing among themselves as voters look on.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
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What terrific energy and enthusiasm you have for a 107 year old!JackW said:
Yes ..peter_from_putney said:
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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It is still 3 months away. Just like a GE people get more interested as it gets closer. Polls are hard for referenda, and increasingly poor for any political issue.peter_from_putney said:
"I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band"foxinsoxuk said:
I would favour STV in multimember constituencies myself.Indigo said:
Which is also a crap way of doing it because largely the population have a choice of two parties will almost the same view on everything, and a few fringe fruitcakes.foxinsoxuk said:No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.
I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band, but whoever wins the whining will continue from both sides. We will wind up with a deal with Europe that to most sane people looks very similar to what the EU looks like and most of our trade will also be with the EU. In another decade or two we will probably rejoin!
Really? I see very little prospect of that, especially in the light of the poll yesterday showing only 47% were 10/10 certain to vote. Prior to the 2015 GE, the polls were typically showing around 76% as being that same 10/10 certain to vote, yet ultimately only 66% took the trouble to do so. My difficulty this morning was in deciding which was the better bet at broadly similar odds between the referendum turnout being 55% - 60% or < 55%. I opted for the former but fear it might be the latter, hence my decision to take out a saver on the lower band.
Far from "interesting picking up over time", I fear it is just as likely, if not more so, to subside!
I note that most bookies have their over/under line in the low 60's.
I trust the ARSE4EU in these matters!0 -
How about e-lite ?Jonathan said:
It's slightly misleading and unfair to call our current political leaders an "elite".SouthamObserver said:
The Elite are arguing among themselves as voters look on.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
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Mrs JackW concurs .... three times last night and twice this morning .... no not "it" but visits to the loo ..peter_from_putney said:
What terrific energy and enthusiasm you have for a 107 year old!JackW said:
Yes ..peter_from_putney said:
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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National - CNN Poll of Polls
Trump 43 .. Cruz 31 .. Kasich 19
Clinton 52 .. Sanders 430 -
(Channelling his inner Clarkson)
Now who can say that women cannot park in a tight spot...
http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/driver-who-lost-control-of-car-accidentally-achieves-perfect-tight-spot-parking-5771225/0 -
We should not forget the stellar skills of PB's very own ELIZA, which was written by some drunken first-year students at the University of the West of Scotland.RodCrosby said:
Sounds like this "AI" was not so far removed from a version I wrote in BASIC on a Commodore PET in 1981.Indigo said:O/T
For anyone worried about Skynet. Microsoft just killed the first AI to "reach sentience" when it went from innocent to Trump supporter in 24hrs after learning about life from reading Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/03/24/microsofts-teen-girl-ai-turns-into-a-hitler-loving-sex-robot-wit/
It was very good at parsing the sentences you fed it, and regurgitating them back as new questions or statements involving the newly-acquired nouns. We soon found ways to make it say ridiculous and hysterical things.
"I would like to have sex with you."
"...Why thank-you, I would like to have sex with you, too!"
"Who is Hitler?"
"...I have had sex with Hitler"
"When?"
"...Last Week"
"Hitler is dead"
"...Hitler is [sic] dead when I have had sex with him last week" 0 -
I'm sure Remain will be delighted with a low turnout. They have been very keen on people 'not banging on about Europe' and highlighting what an unimportant issue this is all these years.0
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Don't sell yourself short Jack ..... most people of your age would consider it something of a triumph to be able to make such visits.JackW said:
Mrs JackW concurs .... three times last night and twice this morning .... no not "it" but visits to the loo ..peter_from_putney said:
What terrific energy and enthusiasm you have for a 107 year old!JackW said:
Yes ..peter_from_putney said:
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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Our current system of government is a mediocracy.JackW said:
How about e-lite ?Jonathan said:
It's slightly misleading and unfair to call our current political leaders an "elite".SouthamObserver said:
The Elite are arguing among themselves as voters look on.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
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FTPT
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious? Visible bruising, hospitalisation? Is a card with a threshold to be handed out so all the bullies know exacty what evel of pain either physical or emotional they can go for before they get Ito trouble?
And how about the bullies, will they randomly be given a kicking by a teacher every now and then so they too can dread every day turning up for school expecting their lunch money to be stolen or to be dumped over a fence or a ball kicked so hard at their head when they are not looking their head is driven into a pebble dash wall?
A jolly good idea!0 -
In all modesty selling myself short is my one great weakness ....peter_from_putney said:
Don't sell yourself short Jack ..... most people of your age would consider it something of a triumph to be able to make such visits.JackW said:
Mrs JackW concurs .... three times last night and twice this morning .... no not "it" but visits to the loo ..peter_from_putney said:
What terrific energy and enthusiasm you have for a 107 year old!JackW said:
Yes ..peter_from_putney said:
Excellent news Jack, might we also expect your projection as regards the turnout in the referendum?JackW said:Exclusive to PB - First ARSE4EU Projection - Tuesday 29th March 9:00am.
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Sighs... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4721076.ece
British border guards at French ports banned from using x-ray scanners to search lorries for stowaways because of health and safety fears.
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Have you not seen the positive cases in articles on political betting from TSE and Mr Meeks?MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Maybe positive cases are a myth?0 -
If its a low turnout who will have the most incentive to actually bother voting?
It's Leave isn't it...0 -
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In Japan, the authorities generally step in after the suicideAlistair said:FTPT
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious?0 -
I think a good high powered MASER is the answer. That'll detect the b*ggersPlato_Says said:Sighs... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4721076.ece
British border guards at French ports banned from using x-ray scanners to search lorries for stowaways because of health and safety fears.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Rog, no idea if it'll be published, but I used masers as the weapon of choice in a short sci-fi story I wrote.
The technical stuff isn't my forte, so I was pleased with that.0 -
Brussels.
I mentioned the other night that the employee and contractors list at the airport needed looking at. It appears one of attackers has working connections to the airport in the past. There has been an indication of inside assistance by someone working there now. That line of inquiry needs looking at.0 -
Many here will disagree with Fraser
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12203847/When-will-Cameron-realise-he-cant-win-the-EU-referendum-by-scaring-us.htmlIn theory, counter-terrorism ought to be made easier by the European Union. Its 28 member states can agree on how to spot and intercept jihadists, then share tips as they pursue a common enemy. That’s the theory. In practice, however, it’s a terrifying shambles – as we are now finding out.
For example, its security database contains 90,000 fingerprints – but there’s no means of searching it. Member states cannot even agree on how to spell Arabic names: a bit of a handicap when it comes to tracking Islamists who move across borders. The EU might have many uses, but security just isn’t one of them.0 -
Plato_Says said:
Many here will disagree with Fraser
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12203847/When-will-Cameron-realise-he-cant-win-the-EU-referendum-by-scaring-us.htmlIn theory, counter-terrorism ought to be made easier by the European Union. Its 28 member states can agree on how to spot and intercept jihadists, then share tips as they pursue a common enemy. That’s the theory. In practice, however, it’s a terrifying shambles – as we are now finding out.
For example, its security database contains 90,000 fingerprints – but there’s no means of searching it. Member states cannot even agree on how to spell Arabic names: a bit of a handicap when it comes to tracking Islamists who move across borders. The EU might have many uses, but security just isn’t one of them.
I laughed my socks off the other day as some belgian politico grandstanded on the beeb saying we needed more Europe to stop this and more info sharing between countries. This was after the same beeb programme had just run a report on how the belgians failed to share information between their own security forces in the same town.
Maybe they should start at home first.0 -
F1: this broke last night but there's some more detail about F1's attempt to kill itself (this time, qualifying):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/358968750 -
Of the £2020 matched so far on Betfair's Referendum Turnout market, just £625 or 31% has been wagered on the turnout being lower than 60%. This is very much at odds with OGH's header which highlights the fact that in ICM's poll, only 47% responded that they were 10/10 certain to vote in the referendum, almost 20% lower than the typical 66% who typically say the same of the next general election.0
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@Alanbrooke
This bit made me winceThe dismantling of border controls makes it easier for terrorists move bombs. The freedom works, but the security doesn’t. Which is perhaps why, after the Paris attacks, a French intelligence chief said that his country had become a “victim of solidarity with the European Union”.
Alanbrooke said:Plato_Says said:Many here will disagree with Fraser
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12203847/When-will-Cameron-realise-he-cant-win-the-EU-referendum-by-scaring-us.htmlIn theory, counter-terrorism ought to be made easier by the European Union. Its 28 member states can agree on how to spot and intercept jihadists, then share tips as they pursue a common enemy. That’s the theory. In practice, however, it’s a terrifying shambles – as we are now finding out.
For example, its security database contains 90,000 fingerprints – but there’s no means of searching it. Member states cannot even agree on how to spell Arabic names: a bit of a handicap when it comes to tracking Islamists who move across borders. The EU might have many uses, but security just isn’t one of them.
I laughed my socks off the other day as some belgian politico grandstanded on the beeb saying we needed more Europe to stop this and more info sharing between countries. This was after the same beeb programme had just run a report on how the belgians failed to share information between their own security forces in the same town.
Maybe they should start at home first.0 -
Alanbrooke said:
Belgium is a country that needs the EU to save it from itself.Plato_Says said:Many here will disagree with Fraser
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12203847/When-will-Cameron-realise-he-cant-win-the-EU-referendum-by-scaring-us.htmlIn theory, counter-terrorism ought to be made easier by the European Union. Its 28 member states can agree on how to spot and intercept jihadists, then share tips as they pursue a common enemy. That’s the theory. In practice, however, it’s a terrifying shambles – as we are now finding out.
For example, its security database contains 90,000 fingerprints – but there’s no means of searching it. Member states cannot even agree on how to spell Arabic names: a bit of a handicap when it comes to tracking Islamists who move across borders. The EU might have many uses, but security just isn’t one of them.
I'm not sure how Nelson this leaving the EU would help improve the quality or accuracy of our days in foreign terrorists however. Best to stay in the EU system and push for improvements, which seems to be May's view and I assume she knows this area a bit better than Fraser.0 -
Mr. Putney, depends on the odds, though. My own guess is turnout will be around 62%, so in a below/above 60% market I'd want some tasty odds to jump either way.0
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Another map
Paul Kirkby
To help UK people understand threats from foreign powers in 1909, this showed the effect of gunships in the Thames https://t.co/jIBjBTiGRX0 -
Plato says (8.06am) "(EU) member states cannot even agree on how to spell Arabic names" - that's because the transliterations of Arabic into English and into French differ. That won't change any time soon - why should it?0
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Following on from Richard Dearlove
A former CIA director has told Sky News he does not think leaving the European Union would damage the UK's national security.
Video: http://news.sky.com/video/1666612/ex-cia-boss-on-uk-leaving-eu
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Why would you think it incumbent on the status quo to make out a good case for change? It's for those who want change to make out a good case for it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative0 -
I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.0 -
Remain have already agreed that the status quo is unacceptable, hence Cameron's renegotiation. We are now deciding how much change we should have.Roger said:
Why would you think it incumbent on the status quo to make out a good case for change? It's for those who want change to make out a good case for it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative0 -
Visited a Tory Leave-leaning friend last night who showed me the BSE leaflet he'd had - a full-colour 4-pager. Neither of us were very impressed but to be fair it was at least 50% positive, including six rather generic claims about X% of businesses trading with the EU, £10 of "trading and other benefits for every £1 spent" and a plug for the benefits of the European Arrest Warrant, which I seem to recall the Tories opposing when we signed it. His view was that "it's a bit UKIP in style - all broad brush exagerrations". But possibly, cynically, they reckon that's what is needed for a rather uninterested public - fight fire with fire etc. The main problem IMO was that it wasn't especially eye-catching - I'm really interested in the subject but it was a bore to plough through it.
His detached view FWIW was that Remain ought to - also arguably cynically - contrast life in Britain in 1973 with life now and major on "Don't go back to isolation". Obviously withdrawal would not really mean a return to black and white TV etc. but the subliminal message would be that things have got better while we were in the EU and withdrawal was to pull out of that process.0 -
Interesting. Just been involved in a discussion with a friend who frequently visits Holland about the “Battle of Rochester”. The only English one I could find reference to was in the reign of Bad King John, but apparently for the Dutch it’s what we call the “Raid on the Medway" in 1672, when the Dutch almost destroyed the English fleet, or at least such of it as was laid up in the Medway. We make no reference to significant landings, although they do.Plato_Says said:Another map
Paul Kirkby
To help UK people understand threats from foreign powers in 1909, this showed the effect of gunships in the Thames https://t.co/jIBjBTiGRX0 -
'Don't go back to 1973'. They could do a poster depicting Farage as Gene Hunt - that would be sure to work.NickPalmer said:Visited a Tory Leave-leaning friend last night who showed me the BSE leaflet he'd had - a full-colour 4-pager. Neither of us were very impressed but to be fair it was at least 50% positive, including six rather generic claims about X% of businesses trading with the EU, £10 of "trading and other benefits for every £1 spent" and a plug for the benefits of the European Arrest Warrant, which I seem to recall the Tories opposing when we signed it. His view was that "it's a bit UKIP in style - all broad brush exagerrations". But possibly, cynically, they reckon that's what is needed for a rather uninterested public - fight fire with fire etc. The main problem IMO was that it wasn't especially eye-catching - I'm really interested in the subject but it was a bore to plough through it.
His detached view FWIW was that Remain ought to - also arguably cynically - contrast life in Britain in 1973 with life now and major on "Don't go back to isolation". Obviously withdrawal would not really mean a return to black and white TV etc. but the subliminal message would be that things have got better while we were in the EU and withdrawal was to pull out of that process.0 -
If he gets a jury trial, I hope they acquit him within 30 minutes. It's just beyond stupid.Morris_Dancer said:
I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.0 -
This might make it easier to topple Corbyn.
More people are leaving the Labour Party than joining it for the first time since last year’s general election, according to Labour MPs.
Labour critics of Jeremy Corbyn claim that some people who joined the party during the remarkable surge of support for him during and after last year’s Labour leadership contest are starting to drift away. “We seem to have reached a tipping point, with more people leaving than joining,” said one senior Labour figure.
Labour Party HQ refused to comment, saying it did not give a “running commentary” on its membership figures. However, it is understood that the latest official figure is higher than the latest published one of 380,000.
Several Labour MPs told The Independent that their constituency parties had reported a net loss of members in recent weeks. The MPs are being urged to ask missing members to renew their subscription. “It’s a significant straw in the wind,” one MP said. Another added: “We knew some of them [last year’s recruits] would lose interest at some point, but it is happening quicker than we thought.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-membership-falling-jeremy-corbyn-2015-general-election-a6951151.html0 -
Indeed. A charge of wasting police time should be laid against the senior officer responsible. Unless, of course, there’s something we haven’t been told.Morris_Dancer said:I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.0 -
Batman v Superman. Meh. Enjoyable but not brilliant.
A film that was the less than the sum of its parts.0 -
Miss Plato, indeed.
Leaving aside the police action, it turns a man who should be a figure of fun into one of sympathy.0 -
There is a small possibility that there is more to this than just that tweet: the original complaint might have caused the police to dig deeper into what he has been tweeting/saying.Morris_Dancer said:I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.
Perhaps.
Sometimes it's worth waiting for the court case for the full fact to come out.0 -
I woulldn’t mind going back to ’73 and making a lot of better subsequent decisions.SandyRentool said:
'Don't go back to 1973'. They could do a poster depicting Farage as Gene Hunt - that would be sure to work.NickPalmer said:Visited a Tory Leave-leaning friend last night who showed me the BSE leaflet he'd had - a full-colour 4-pager. Neither of us were very impressed but to be fair it was at least 50% positive, including six rather generic claims about X% of businesses trading with the EU, £10 of "trading and other benefits for every £1 spent" and a plug for the benefits of the European Arrest Warrant, which I seem to recall the Tories opposing when we signed it. His view was that "it's a bit UKIP in style - all broad brush exagerrations". But possibly, cynically, they reckon that's what is needed for a rather uninterested public - fight fire with fire etc. The main problem IMO was that it wasn't especially eye-catching - I'm really interested in the subject but it was a bore to plough through it.
His detached view FWIW was that Remain ought to - also arguably cynically - contrast life in Britain in 1973 with life now and major on "Don't go back to isolation". Obviously withdrawal would not really mean a return to black and white TV etc. but the subliminal message would be that things have got better while we were in the EU and withdrawal was to pull out of that process.
Still voting Remain though. That was one of the better ones.0 -
Doesn't add up. If people joined during the leadership election their membership won't lapse until at least May. More likely to be long standing (and more centrist) members not renewing. This takes the membership leftwards.TheScreamingEagles said:This might make it easier to topple Corbyn.
More people are leaving the Labour Party than joining it for the first time since last year’s general election, according to Labour MPs.
Labour critics of Jeremy Corbyn claim that some people who joined the party during the remarkable surge of support for him during and after last year’s Labour leadership contest are starting to drift away. “We seem to have reached a tipping point, with more people leaving than joining,” said one senior Labour figure.
Labour Party HQ refused to comment, saying it did not give a “running commentary” on its membership figures. However, it is understood that the latest official figure is higher than the latest published one of 380,000.
Several Labour MPs told The Independent that their constituency parties had reported a net loss of members in recent weeks. The MPs are being urged to ask missing members to renew their subscription. “It’s a significant straw in the wind,” one MP said. Another added: “We knew some of them [last year’s recruits] would lose interest at some point, but it is happening quicker than we thought.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-membership-falling-jeremy-corbyn-2015-general-election-a6951151.html0 -
They're out there, they're just being drowned out by all the positives from the leave camp. Or not.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.0 -
More people are leaving the Labour Party than joining it for the first time since last year’s general election, according to Labour MPs.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-membership-falling-jeremy-corbyn-2015-general-election-a6951151.html
Labour critics of Jeremy Corbyn claim that some people who joined the party during the remarkable surge of support for him during and after last year’s Labour leadership contest are starting to drift away. “We seem to have reached a tipping point, with more people leaving than joining,” said one senior Labour figure.0 -
I think it might be the towelhead tweet that got him into trouble with the CPSMorris_Dancer said:I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.0 -
Mr. Jessop/King Cole, that's possible.
But I'll believe it when I see it.0 -
I think you must be right that this is longer-standing members leaving. However it suggests that they no longer outweighed by new people joining.SandyRentool said:
Doesn't add up. If people joined during the leadership election their membership won't lapse until at least May. More likely to be long standing (and more centrist) members not renewing. This takes the membership leftwards.TheScreamingEagles said:This might make it easier to topple Corbyn.
More people are leaving the Labour Party than joining it for the first time since last year’s general election, according to Labour MPs.
Labour critics of Jeremy Corbyn claim that some people who joined the party during the remarkable surge of support for him during and after last year’s Labour leadership contest are starting to drift away. “We seem to have reached a tipping point, with more people leaving than joining,” said one senior Labour figure.
Labour Party HQ refused to comment, saying it did not give a “running commentary” on its membership figures. However, it is understood that the latest official figure is higher than the latest published one of 380,000.
Several Labour MPs told The Independent that their constituency parties had reported a net loss of members in recent weeks. The MPs are being urged to ask missing members to renew their subscription. “It’s a significant straw in the wind,” one MP said. Another added: “We knew some of them [last year’s recruits] would lose interest at some point, but it is happening quicker than we thought.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-membership-falling-jeremy-corbyn-2015-general-election-a6951151.html0 -
Speaking and tweeting, unless they directly incite violence, should not be crimes in the first place. But it wasn't the police that made them crimes.OldKingCole said:
Indeed. A charge of wasting police time should be laid against the senior officer responsible. Unless, of course, there’s something we haven’t been told.Morris_Dancer said:I think this is outrageous. The idiot who accosted a Muslim woman and asked her to explain/justify the Belgian attacks [and subsequently tweeted about it] has now been charged:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.0 -
Mr. Eagles, hmm. Is kaffir [should that be capitalised?] also to be verboten? Is this video acceptable?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KcC1QFhJT4
Can Christians say they think non-Christians will go to Hell? Can Muslims call non-Muslims infidels? Can atheists say they think religion's a crock of shit?0 -
Mr. Wanderer, I agree. Whilst good that Rowan Atkinson et al. managed to get the law's madness reduced, it's still excessive if it allows a twonk to be arrested for tweeting stupidly.0
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Aparently, the god fearing bible thumper has been playing away from home with Katrina Pieterson (who now works for Trump), Sarah Flores (worked for Carly and explains why Cruz gave Carly half a million dollars) and Amandda Carpenter who is usually on twiiter a lot but has now gone quite and two others.JackW said:The Republican contest is such a dull-fest ...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35893290
If only Cruz had not used Melania in anti Trump ads.
Twenty years ago it took 6 months for the National Enquirer true stories about Gary Hart etc to gain traction. This is no longer the case with social media.
0 -
They can and they do.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, hmm. Is kaffir [should that be capitalised?] also to be verboten? Is this video acceptable?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KcC1QFhJT4
Can Christians say they think non-Christians will go to Hell? Can Muslims call non-Muslims infidels? Can atheists say they think religion's a crock of shit?
Towelhead is a racist term, so it isn't surprising he's been charged.0 -
Mr Jessop,
"There is a small possibility that there is more to this than just that tweet: the original complaint might have caused the police to dig deeper into what he has been tweeting/saying."
Possibly, but that doesn't help matters. It would mean that they saw a tiny wisp of smoke, suspected fire and dug deeper. It sounds good but .... Why him? There were thousands of far more important cases in Rotherham for instance, but that was a case for a blind eye to a raging fire.
Life isn't fair, but obvious and selective unfairness does irritate.
Or back in the real world, being a bit of knob head was never a crime. There'd be few MPs left in the general community otherwise.0 -
I suppose for people (outside Northern Ireland) who remember 1973, the main problem would be over mighty trade unions. But, that problem was sorted by Mrs. Thatcher.
That aside, I think most people who were around at that time think it was a pretty good time to be alive.0 -
I was. It was probably better than any previous time but things are far better now.Sean_F said:I suppose for people (outside Northern Ireland) who remember 1973, the main problem would be over mighty trade unions. But, that problem was sorted by Mrs. Thatcher.
That aside, I think most people who were around at that time think it was a pretty good time to be alive.0 -
The Guardian. Tackling the big issues. https://t.co/XTVah05xnE0
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Lottery winners or the equivalent off anyway. Apparently they can now cross several several safe countries and claim asylum here after an illegal entry.
"And last night it was revealed at least 24 of the migrants who made it to the UK hiding in the back of two lorries in recent days have already been set free.
All 51 stowaways had claimed asylum and the remaining 27 men, women and children who were discovered sneaking into the country were expected to have been let out by last night."
http://tinyurl.com/zsmfgqg
0 -
Morris Dancer, I don't know all the details. If he was threatening the Muslim woman, then it's reasonable that he be charged. If all he did was post a racist tweet, then it isn't.
0 -
@TelePolitics: John Woodcock calls on MPs to rally against Jeremy Corbyn as he warns Labour 'cannot go on like this' https://t.co/k6cqlhLDoo0
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Hope they're right this time
AP
BREAKING: Officials say suspect detained Thursday in France linked to Paris attacks ringleader Abaaoud.0 -
Paul Kirkby
New @YouGov poll. How the British people rate the UK versus other European countries on 9 big issues https://t.co/cGTJ3iy0aG0 -
Glad that you liked it. I meant it seriously, though I think your reply is less serious.Alistair said:FTPT
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious? Visible bruising, hospitalisation? Is a card with a threshold to be handed out so all the bullies know exacty what evel of pain either physical or emotional they can go for before they get Ito trouble?
And how about the bullies, will they randomly be given a kicking by a teacher every now and then so they too can dread every day turning up for school expecting their lunch money to be stolen or to be dumped over a fence or a ball kicked so hard at their head when they are not looking their head is driven into a pebble dash wall?
A jolly good idea!
There is an informal curriculum at any school alongside the academic curriculum. This involves everything from making and shedding friends, courting, dealing with authority, how to bend and break the rules, which rules matter and how to rub along with people. All essential preparation for real life, and dealing with insults, unpleasant and aggressive behaviour is part of that. Teachers should be aware of what is going on, but if a bully is dealt with by his/her peers then it is a much more effective and useful control mechanism than a teacher having to intervene. It is all part of socialisation.
0 -
Dr. Fox,
I think there's much truth in that. How would you deal with bullies in adult life, if you never encountered them at school.0 -
It was great to be a heterosexual white male in 1973, of that there can be no doubt. But discrimination against women, ethnic minorities and homosexuals was rife and perfectly legal. Do we really want to go back to that?0
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If Trump wins, even if the GOP then rallies round, the Democrats are going to have such a feast of attack ads they'll think it's a century of Christmases all come at once.Gaius said:
Aparently, the god fearing bible thumper has been playing away from home with Katrina Pieterson (who now works for Trump), Sarah Flores (worked for Carly and explains why Cruz gave Carly half a million dollars) and Amandda Carpenter who is usually on twiiter a lot but has now gone quite and two others.JackW said:The Republican contest is such a dull-fest ...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35893290
If only Cruz had not used Melania in anti Trump ads.
Twenty years ago it took 6 months for the National Enquirer true stories about Gary Hart etc to gain traction. This is no longer the case with social media.0 -
A silly move by Cameron and done purely for reasons of internal Tory politics. Only diehard rump of Tories were demanding renegotiation and that was only a cover for wanting out. As an ex ad man I'm surprised he didn't think it through. The country have had 30 years to get comfortable with the EU so shaking it up prior to a referendum has made the simple argument 'better the devil you know' much more difficult.SandyRentool said:
Remain have already agreed that the status quo is unacceptable, hence Cameron's renegotiation. We are now deciding how much change we should have.Roger said:
Why would you think it incumbent on the status quo to make out a good case for change? It's for those who want change to make out a good case for it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative0 -
But bullies are not typically "dealt with" by their peers. They make other children's lives hell for their own amusement and get away with it. That's the "lesson" you want to impart, I suppose.foxinsoxuk said:
Glad that you liked it. I meant it seriously, though I think your reply is less serious.Alistair said:FTPT
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious? Visible bruising, hospitalisation? Is a card with a threshold to be handed out so all the bullies know exacty what evel of pain either physical or emotional they can go for before they get Ito trouble?
And how about the bullies, will they randomly be given a kicking by a teacher every now and then so they too can dread every day turning up for school expecting their lunch money to be stolen or to be dumped over a fence or a ball kicked so hard at their head when they are not looking their head is driven into a pebble dash wall?
A jolly good idea!
There is an informal curriculum at any school alongside the academic curriculum. This involves everything from making and shedding friends, courting, dealing with authority, how to bend and break the rules, which rules matter and how to rub along with people. All essential preparation for real life, and dealing with insults, unpleasant and aggressive behaviour is part of that. Teachers should be aware of what is going on, but if a bully is dealt with by his/her peers then it is a much more effective and useful control mechanism than a teacher having to intervene. It is all part of socialisation.
Also, if your "let them sort it out among themselves" approach is good enough for children why not for adults in the workplace or home?0 -
In case anyone's interested, Ladbrokes have a couple of other turnout related markets:
7/2 Under 50%
7/4 50-60%
7/4 60-70%
9/2 Over 70%
9/4 Remain wins & Turnout Over 65%
5/4 Remain wins & Turnout Under 65%
6/1 Leave wins & Turnout Over 65%
3/1 Leave wins & Turnout Under 65%0 -
He was panic-stricken about the Tory right jumping to UKIP and terrified that Ed Miliband would beat him in the GE. He was clearly not thinking straight.Roger said:
A silly move by Cameron and done purely for reasons of internal Tory politics. Only diehard rump of Tories were demanding renegotiation and that was only a cover for wanting out. As an ex ad man I'm surprised he didn't think it through. The country have had 30 years to get comfortable with the EU so shaking it up prior to a referendum has made the simple argument 'better the devil you know' much more difficult.SandyRentool said:
Remain have already agreed that the status quo is unacceptable, hence Cameron's renegotiation. We are now deciding how much change we should have.Roger said:
Why would you think it incumbent on the status quo to make out a good case for change? It's for those who want change to make out a good case for it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative
0 -
As a small employer at the time, I don’t recall any significant personal issues over trade unions, or their effect on my life. Heath’s government was began to fall apart later in the year, but overall life was pretty good.Sean_F said:I suppose for people (outside Northern Ireland) who remember 1973, the main problem would be over mighty trade unions. But, that problem was sorted by Mrs. Thatcher.
That aside, I think most people who were around at that time think it was a pretty good time to be alive.
In retrospect it was towards the end of the good times. Certainly personally.0 -
I don't think he's accused of threatening her, but it can appear alarming if a stranger comes up to you in the street and demands that you "explain" a crime that someone has committed in another country. If he then follows it up by abusing you racially on Twitter, he is certainly pushing the boundary of public order, and if such things became commonplace (equally you can imagine a fundamentalist demanding that random strangers "explain" the Iraq war or tolerance of waterboarding), Britain would be a significantly less pleasant place to live. Many people would have replied "Fuck off" rather than her mild "It's nothing to do with me", and one can see that escalating quickly into a street confrontation.Sean_F said:Morris Dancer, I don't know all the details. If he was threatening the Muslim woman, then it's reasonable that he be charged. If all he did was post a racist tweet, then it isn't.
I'd rather see him prosecuted on that basis - action likely to cause a breach of the peace or something like that. I don't really care if he's got obnoxious views, but pushing them on others should be discouraged.0 -
Point taken :-)Jonathan said:
It's slightly misleading and unfair to call our current political leaders an "elite".SouthamObserver said:
The Elite are arguing among themselves as voters look on.Indigo said:
So the elite (inadvertently) bore the pants off everyone for three months about a referendum, and spread scare stories to the extent their lose all credibility, and then its the public's fault that they can't be bothered to go and vote on the issue of the day ?foxinsoxuk said:If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
However, the idea that the Leave side are a plucky band of outsiders is plainly ridiculous.
0 -
Lots of people thought Labour would win, right up till election night.0
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If adults in the workplace or home can't sort it out among themselves, what are they supposed to do? Go crying to the police because they're "offended"?Wanderer said:
But bullies are not typically "dealt with" by their peers. They make other children's lives hell for their own amusement and get away with it. That's the "lesson" you want to impart, I suppose.foxinsoxuk said:
Glad that you liked it. I meant it seriously, though I think your reply is less serious.Alistair said:FTPT
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious? Visible bruising, hospitalisation? Is a card with a threshold to be handed out so all the bullies know exacty what evel of pain either physical or emotional they can go for before they get Ito trouble?
And how about the bullies, will they randomly be given a kicking by a teacher every now and then so they too can dread every day turning up for school expecting their lunch money to be stolen or to be dumped over a fence or a ball kicked so hard at their head when they are not looking their head is driven into a pebble dash wall?
A jolly good idea!
There is an informal curriculum at any school alongside the academic curriculum. This involves everything from making and shedding friends, courting, dealing with authority, how to bend and break the rules, which rules matter and how to rub along with people. All essential preparation for real life, and dealing with insults, unpleasant and aggressive behaviour is part of that. Teachers should be aware of what is going on, but if a bully is dealt with by his/her peers then it is a much more effective and useful control mechanism than a teacher having to intervene. It is all part of socialisation.
Also, if your "let them sort it out among themselves" approach is good enough for children why not for adults in the workplace or home?0 -
Everyone or nearly everyoneSouthamObserver said:
He was panic-stricken about the Tory right jumping to UKIP and terrified that Ed Miliband would beat him in the GE. He was clearly not thinking straight.Roger said:
A silly move by Cameron and done purely for reasons of internal Tory politics. Only diehard rump of Tories were demanding renegotiation and that was only a cover for wanting out. As an ex ad man I'm surprised he didn't think it through. The country have had 30 years to get comfortable with the EU so shaking it up prior to a referendum has made the simple argument 'better the devil you know' much more difficult.SandyRentool said:
Remain have already agreed that the status quo is unacceptable, hence Cameron's renegotiation. We are now deciding how much change we should have.Roger said:
Why would you think it incumbent on the status quo to make out a good case for change? It's for those who want change to make out a good case for it.MarqueeMark said:Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the campaign so far has been the inability of Remain to make any positive case to go out and vote for them. You'd think they'd have SOMETHING to say on why the EU is such a wonderful thing, but nope. No fire at all in their bellies. Just a lot of shoe-gazing and half-hearted mumbling of Project Fear bullet points.
Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative was misled by the polls. Dave was thinking straight, he won the election, now time to lance the boil. 0
