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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at ge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels
The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015.
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Sub-65% turnout looks a good bet.
I don't think that the % intention to vote will go up until the Labour party and Trade Unions get campaigning. Neither is in great shape at the moment.
If the turnout is a great deal less than 65% then it does call into question the whole validity of referenda in deciding important issues. Better to stick to Parliament.
For anyone worried about Skynet. Microsoft just killed the first AI to "reach sentience" when it went from innocent to Trump supporter in 24hrs after learning about life from reading Twitter
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/03/24/microsofts-teen-girl-ai-turns-into-a-hitler-loving-sex-robot-wit/
That Microsoft story is very funny.
Accordingly, I've grabbed all the £20 available on Betfair's 55% - 60% band at a seemingly generous 7.6, plus a "saver" on their <55% band. Taken together, possibly my best bet of the year so far, in terms of value.
So far as I can see none of the conventional bookies are offering this turnout market, unless anyone knows otherwise.
No two ways about it. Referenda are a crap way of deciding complex issues. That is what we elect MPs for.
I think that interest will pick up over time and Remain will comfortably win, with turnout in the 60-65% band, but whoever wins the whining will continue from both sides. We will wind up with a deal with Europe that to most sane people looks very similar to what the EU looks like and most of our trade will also be with the EU. In another decade or two we will probably rejoin!
It was very good at parsing the sentences you fed it, and regurgitating them back as new questions or statements involving the newly-acquired nouns. We soon found ways to make it say ridiculous and hysterical things.
"I would like to have sex with you."
"...Why thank-you, I would like to have sex with you, too!"
"Who is Hitler?"
"...I have had sex with Hitler"
"When?"
"...Last Week"
"Hitler is dead"
"...Hitler is [sic] dead when I have had sex with him last week"
Really? I see very little prospect of that, especially in the light of the poll yesterday showing only 47% were 10/10 certain to vote. Prior to the 2015 GE, the polls were typically showing around 76% as being that same 10/10 certain to vote, yet ultimately only 66% took the trouble to do so. My difficulty this morning was in deciding which was the better bet at broadly similar odds between the referendum turnout being 55% - 60% or < 55%. I opted for the former but fear it might be the latter, hence my decision to take out a saver on the lower band.
Far from "interesting picking up over time", I fear it is just as likely, if not more so, to subside!
That said, if Remain does somehow scrape it, voters will not forgive a party that continues to obsess about this issue.
https://twitter.com/fourfourtweet/status/713154451691978752
I note that most bookies have their over/under line in the low 60's.
I trust the ARSE4EU in these matters!
Trump 43 .. Cruz 31 .. Kasich 19
Clinton 52 .. Sanders 43
Now who can say that women cannot park in a tight spot...
http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/23/driver-who-lost-control-of-car-accidentally-achieves-perfect-tight-spot-parking-5771225/
I like the idea if school as somewhere kids an go to learn about being bullied and adults should only step in when it is serious.
How serious is serious? Visible bruising, hospitalisation? Is a card with a threshold to be handed out so all the bullies know exacty what evel of pain either physical or emotional they can go for before they get Ito trouble?
And how about the bullies, will they randomly be given a kicking by a teacher every now and then so they too can dread every day turning up for school expecting their lunch money to be stolen or to be dumped over a fence or a ball kicked so hard at their head when they are not looking their head is driven into a pebble dash wall?
A jolly good idea!
British border guards at French ports banned from using x-ray scanners to search lorries for stowaways because of health and safety fears.
Maybe positive cases are a myth?
It's Leave isn't it...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35893290
Mr. Rog, no idea if it'll be published, but I used masers as the weapon of choice in a short sci-fi story I wrote.
The technical stuff isn't my forte, so I was pleased with that.
I mentioned the other night that the employee and contractors list at the airport needed looking at. It appears one of attackers has working connections to the airport in the past. There has been an indication of inside assistance by someone working there now. That line of inquiry needs looking at.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12203847/When-will-Cameron-realise-he-cant-win-the-EU-referendum-by-scaring-us.html
I laughed my socks off the other day as some belgian politico grandstanded on the beeb saying we needed more Europe to stop this and more info sharing between countries. This was after the same beeb programme had just run a report on how the belgians failed to share information between their own security forces in the same town.
Maybe they should start at home first.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35896875
This bit made me wince
Paul Kirkby
To help UK people understand threats from foreign powers in 1909, this showed the effect of gunships in the Thames https://t.co/jIBjBTiGRX
Try making a good case for keeping the monarch and i think you'd find all your arguments would be negative
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35898029
The bloke's an utter fool, but [almost] everyone responded appropriately by mocking the contemptible buffoon. Police action is excessive.
His detached view FWIW was that Remain ought to - also arguably cynically - contrast life in Britain in 1973 with life now and major on "Don't go back to isolation". Obviously withdrawal would not really mean a return to black and white TV etc. but the subliminal message would be that things have got better while we were in the EU and withdrawal was to pull out of that process.
More people are leaving the Labour Party than joining it for the first time since last year’s general election, according to Labour MPs.
Labour critics of Jeremy Corbyn claim that some people who joined the party during the remarkable surge of support for him during and after last year’s Labour leadership contest are starting to drift away. “We seem to have reached a tipping point, with more people leaving than joining,” said one senior Labour figure.
Labour Party HQ refused to comment, saying it did not give a “running commentary” on its membership figures. However, it is understood that the latest official figure is higher than the latest published one of 380,000.
Several Labour MPs told The Independent that their constituency parties had reported a net loss of members in recent weeks. The MPs are being urged to ask missing members to renew their subscription. “It’s a significant straw in the wind,” one MP said. Another added: “We knew some of them [last year’s recruits] would lose interest at some point, but it is happening quicker than we thought.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-membership-falling-jeremy-corbyn-2015-general-election-a6951151.html
A film that was the less than the sum of its parts.
Leaving aside the police action, it turns a man who should be a figure of fun into one of sympathy.
Perhaps.
Sometimes it's worth waiting for the court case for the full fact to come out.
Still voting Remain though. That was one of the better ones.
But I'll believe it when I see it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KcC1QFhJT4
Can Christians say they think non-Christians will go to Hell? Can Muslims call non-Muslims infidels? Can atheists say they think religion's a crock of shit?
If only Cruz had not used Melania in anti Trump ads.
Twenty years ago it took 6 months for the National Enquirer true stories about Gary Hart etc to gain traction. This is no longer the case with social media.
Towelhead is a racist term, so it isn't surprising he's been charged.
"There is a small possibility that there is more to this than just that tweet: the original complaint might have caused the police to dig deeper into what he has been tweeting/saying."
Possibly, but that doesn't help matters. It would mean that they saw a tiny wisp of smoke, suspected fire and dug deeper. It sounds good but .... Why him? There were thousands of far more important cases in Rotherham for instance, but that was a case for a blind eye to a raging fire.
Life isn't fair, but obvious and selective unfairness does irritate.
Or back in the real world, being a bit of knob head was never a crime. There'd be few MPs left in the general community otherwise.
That aside, I think most people who were around at that time think it was a pretty good time to be alive.
"And last night it was revealed at least 24 of the migrants who made it to the UK hiding in the back of two lorries in recent days have already been set free.
All 51 stowaways had claimed asylum and the remaining 27 men, women and children who were discovered sneaking into the country were expected to have been let out by last night."
http://tinyurl.com/zsmfgqg
AP
BREAKING: Officials say suspect detained Thursday in France linked to Paris attacks ringleader Abaaoud.
New @YouGov poll. How the British people rate the UK versus other European countries on 9 big issues https://t.co/cGTJ3iy0aG
There is an informal curriculum at any school alongside the academic curriculum. This involves everything from making and shedding friends, courting, dealing with authority, how to bend and break the rules, which rules matter and how to rub along with people. All essential preparation for real life, and dealing with insults, unpleasant and aggressive behaviour is part of that. Teachers should be aware of what is going on, but if a bully is dealt with by his/her peers then it is a much more effective and useful control mechanism than a teacher having to intervene. It is all part of socialisation.
I think there's much truth in that. How would you deal with bullies in adult life, if you never encountered them at school.
Also, if your "let them sort it out among themselves" approach is good enough for children why not for adults in the workplace or home?
7/2 Under 50%
7/4 50-60%
7/4 60-70%
9/2 Over 70%
9/4 Remain wins & Turnout Over 65%
5/4 Remain wins & Turnout Under 65%
6/1 Leave wins & Turnout Over 65%
3/1 Leave wins & Turnout Under 65%
In retrospect it was towards the end of the good times. Certainly personally.
I'd rather see him prosecuted on that basis - action likely to cause a breach of the peace or something like that. I don't really care if he's got obnoxious views, but pushing them on others should be discouraged.
However, the idea that the Leave side are a plucky band of outsiders is plainly ridiculous.