politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This morning’s Brussels attacks are a terrible tragedy not

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RE: Wales and the Yougov poll
With Labour polling of 31%, it is so low on, I assume, unadjusted weightings post GE2015, there is room for a further drop of circa 2% within these numbers. There must be a tipping point below which Labour lose sheds loads of seats. Does any one have an idea where that is?

The Tories and laid are still averaging 10 points behind though. Unlike in Scotland there isn't a single alternative that people will move towards.

World Cup-winning captain and coach Franz Beckenbauer is one of six men being investigated for their part in Germany's 2006 World Cup bid.

Richard_Nabavi said:

taffys said:

We can do something about apologists here. We can vote them out. Trouble is, we own Belgium's policy too, because Belgians can come here freely.

In what conceivable world will Belgians not be able to come here freely, as indeed they mostly have throughout history?

Are you Leavers completely mad?

In a world where we realise Molenbeek is a jihadist safehaven and we realise we need to have proper visa checks.

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

Pulpstar said:

On topic

Often those messages which we find personally vulgar are the most effective in an electoral campaign..............

SIndy campaign with the baby...

FrancisUrquhart said:

World Cup-winning captain and coach Franz Beckenbauer is one of six men being investigated for their part in Germany's 2006 World Cup bid.

Are we planning to take it off them?

Dead cat? If so, presumably one conceived before this morning's outrages.

Plato_Says said:

Tom Newton Dunn
#Budget debate now getting very nasty. Tom Tugendhat shouts at McDonnell: "He stands with bombers who murdered my friends in N Ireland".

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

Eiffel Tower projection of Belgian flag later, all pointless signalling without real action.

RodCrosby said:

Belgian flag flying over Downing St.

No change there then...

Update 20 killed at Metro, 117 injured, dozen or more severely

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

I would think assistance in building lean muscle mass would be of interest to anybody.

Maybe. I don't know enough about it. But more obviously for those who need to replace body fat with muscle than those simply looking to bulk up I would have thought. If it is an industrial quantity to get the benefit then fair enough but if it is a trace one might look at potential contamination.

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

It works well even if you don't have to hit a weight limit, fat only slows you down - it's muscle you need !

Has any politician articulated how long the people of Europe are going to have put up with this new terror threat or outlined any strategy which may stop it? If not, why not?

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Dead cat? If so, presumably one conceived before this morning's outrages.

Plato_Says said:

Tom Newton Dunn
#Budget debate now getting very nasty. Tom Tugendhat shouts at McDonnell: "He stands with bombers who murdered my friends in N Ireland".

No, something Tom Tugendhat (unsurprisingly, given his background) feels passionately about.

Does he shout it every time he sees McDonnell or only when the Chief Whip is trying to distract attention from Osborne's woes?

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

It works well even if you don't have to hit a weight limit, fat only slows you down - it's muscle you need !

As I say IANAE but fat around your internal organs can provide important insulation and protection, especially is someone is hitting you.

RodCrosby said:

Belgian flag flying over Downing St.

No change there then...

Naughty.

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

Potentially in poor taste, but sadly relevant to betting and politics

@theobertram: According to ComRes, Sadiq trails Zac by 7 pts on "keeping London safe from terrorist attacks" https://t.co/r7SnFTiw6j

As a Zac campaigner I didn't want to point this out, but with the polls already narrowing the race is on. The "Corbyn's man" attack is really going to come into play now, I expect the next literature to include Corbyn's views on shoot to kill and having a cup of tea with ISIS.

Do people really think the Mayor actually has any powers over "keeping Londoners safe" (or indeed powers over anything apart from transport or housing)?

'I wonder how many more outrages it will take before there is a European Guantanamo.'

I'm sure it won't be long before the EU tries to use these events to push forward its plans for an EU-wide 'border' force, an EU army, deeper intrusion into people's privacy and of course a single criminal justice system (in which the future of jury trials would be at serious risk).

That won't be 'tasteless' of course.

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

I would think assistance in building lean muscle mass would be of interest to anybody.

Maybe. I don't know enough about it. But more obviously for those who need to replace body fat with muscle than those simply looking to bulk up I would have thought. If it is an industrial quantity to get the benefit then fair enough but if it is a trace one might look at potential contamination.

I suggest you look at the "before" and "after" shots. Not saying it proves guilt, but he certainly changed his body a lot. He was all wibble wobble before...with the nickname "big daddy"...now is far more stripped down.

That is true. Especially around the waist.

chestnut said:

Clarke advocating taxing the Winter Fuel Payment.

Taxing a pensioner benefit? Bold Mr Clarke, very bold.

I notice Sadiq was caught lying about his former speechwriter last night.

SeanT said:

I wonder how many more outrages it will take before there is a European Guantanamo.

Hundreds. We're not even willing to stop immigration from terrorist hotbeds.

Our first policy should be to limit migration substantially from Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Somalia and Libya.

Muscle is significantly heavier than fat too.

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It was mentioned on here yesterday about misuse of medications is the new drug cheating...and today...

Australian Browne stopped defending champion Ruslan Chagaev to win the title in Russia earlier this month. The 36-year-old delivered a positive sample for clenbuterol after the fight, his management company have revealed.

Clenbuterol is a powerful drug used to treat asthma, but it can also help build up lean muscle mass and burn off fat.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/boxing/35871375

It does seem a rather good point that as a heavyweight boxer without a weight limit to beat the drug seems a somewhat odd choice. But there is a whole world of pharma out there that is only known to the cheats.

It works well even if you don't have to hit a weight limit, fat only slows you down - it's muscle you need !

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its ok everybody...we have no need to worry...Twitter has a hashtag for this and Instagram a picture to share...that will show them...

A bit like that bollocks about the pencils after the Charle Hebdo attacks.

Of course a year on there aren't many of the insufferably right-on that are still standing with Charlie Hebdo, as they insist of continuing to publish whatever the hell they like much of which offends the people who were carrying pencils last year.

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

IIRC from the full article, Plaid are 1% ahead of Tories on list seats.

Worth reading the entrails.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RE: Wales and the Yougov poll
With Labour polling of 31%, it is so low on, I assume, unadjusted weightings post GE2015, there is room for a further drop of circa 2% within these numbers. There must be a tipping point below which Labour lose sheds loads of seats. Does any one have an idea where that is?

Wales has been very gradually shifting against Labour, relative to the rest of the country, since 1970. There was a shift back to Labour in 1987, and 1992, probably due to having a Welsh leader, but then the pro-Conservative shift resumed, in relative terms. 11 Welsh seats is a very strong Conservative result, by historical standards. They beat that in 1983, with 14 seats, but that was when the party led by 16% nationally.

In many ways, Wales is not a very good fit for Labour demographically these days. There aren't many major metropolises (with the obvious exception of the Cardiff area), population is overwhelmingly white.

Absolutely right, though many of you Labour brethren would disagree with this view. Labour has become the party of minorities (specifically Muslims) and the chattering classes. More working class voters are deserting them.

MaxPB said:

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

IIRC from the full article, Plaid are 1% ahead of Tories on list seats.

Worth reading the entrails.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RE: Wales and the Yougov poll
With Labour polling of 31%, it is so low on, I assume, unadjusted weightings post GE2015, there is room for a further drop of circa 2% within these numbers. There must be a tipping point below which Labour lose sheds loads of seats. Does any one have an idea where that is?

Wales has been very gradually shifting against Labour, relative to the rest of the country, since 1970. There was a shift back to Labour in 1987, and 1992, probably due to having a Welsh leader, but then the pro-Conservative shift resumed, in relative terms. 11 Welsh seats is a very strong Conservative result, by historical standards. They beat that in 1983, with 14 seats, but that was when the party led by 16% nationally.

In many ways, Wales is not a very good fit for Labour demographically these days. There aren't many major metropolises (with the obvious exception of the Cardiff area), population is overwhelmingly white.

Absolutely right, though many of you Labour brethren would disagree with this view. Labour has become the party of minorities (specifically Muslims) and the chattering classes. More working class voters are deserting them.

Well, it's pretty much a worldwide trend for left-wing parties. The Democrats are even further down that line.

''The price of freedom and an open society is its vulnerability to such terrorists, but being in or out of the EU is not going to make a jot of difference.''

I repeat. If that is so, then why is 'safer inside' a central plank of Remain's arguments??

#Stopislam trending on twitter.

90% of people putting it in their tweets seem to be complaining about it. Guess they don't really understand how Twitter works

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Clarke advocating taxing the Winter Fuel Payment.

Taxing a pensioner benefit? Bold Mr Clarke, very bold.

On Sunday Politics East Midlands, Ken Clarke was saying that balancing the books always needed tax rises as well as austerity. Best PM we never had!

Patrick said:

The attacks came just a day after a secret police dossier revealed there could be up to 90 'kamikazes' waiting to launch suicide bomb attacks in Europe after returning from Syria disguised as migrants.

So open borders = letting the bombers in unchallenged. Schengen will die soon if this shit keeps up. The whole of the EU (UK included) needs to police its borders - and that means being a trifle 'nasty' to refugees on occasion.

When teachers give lessons on this period of history, students will be shocked at how actively Europe participated in its own downfall.

Pro_Rata said:

I'd forgotten this - it doesn't chime true with my personal impression from talking in depth to good numbers of Muslims who I consider I know well, particularly in the (middle-class) work place, but also back to my school days. A biased sample on my part, perhaps.

So, which of the above is really indicative of ill intent on the part of those respondents and which indicate the respondents' ears for nuance, which could well also be quite different amongst, for e.g., first generation Pakistani Muslims:

Perhaps not lack of surprise that [something akin to] the Paris attacks happened. I as White British could answer yes to that depending on how the mood took me. Likewise, understanding the motives [in a technical sense]. And, if I were Muslim, I may well have found the images offensive.

I'd also wonder if nuance were also at play in: Acts of violence...can never be justified [Well, you might give them a slap?], I have some sympathy for the motives [but not the actions].

Which leaves the first two questions as the worriers for me even taking account of any nuance in words like 'liberal' and the variety of things 'attacked' might mean.

We might also quote the 'Muslims in Britain should always obey British laws' (93 yes/6 no).

So, I could perhaps argue it down below 10% for those who have a general passive sympathy towards anti-Western attacks and a far smaller number than that likely to in any way become active. Not great, and I wouldn't consider to have 'won' any particular argument at this point simply by talking down the numbers a bit.

But I would also wonder how that might have compared with NI Catholics in the 1970s and what that might mean for the possibilities of reversing such attitudes.

You are projecting what you want to be the truth onto the reality of the situation:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/09/10/muslim-publics-share-concerns-about-extremist-groups/ (2013)

57% of Muslims worldwide disapprove of al-Qaeda.
51% disapprove of the Taliban.
13% support both groups and 1 in 4 refuse to say.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html (2006)

40% of British Muslims want Sharia in the UK
20% of British Muslims sympathize with 7/7 bombers

http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/1275/Islam/article/detail/1619036/2013/04/22/Zestien-procent-moslimjongens-vindt-terrorisme-aanvaardbaar.dhtml (2013)

16% of young Muslims in Belgium state terrorism is "acceptable".

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/just-like-us-really (2008)

38.6% of Muslims believe 9/11 attacks were justified (major study done in 35 nations interviewing tens of thousands).

Muslims hold views that are incompatible with the west, pulling up the drawbridge and making life impossible for the extremists that are already here so they leave is the only solution to the problems facing Europe.

foxinsoxuk said:

AndrewD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Some hysterical headless chickens around today! Whatever happened to British pluck and a stiff upper lip?

Some Belgians wete killed by bombs so we need Visas for all Belgians? Well within the last year there were terrorist outrages by Islamists in California, Montreal and Sydney. Visas for all these friendly countries too? Perhaps internal passports to stop the terrorists of Dewsbury and Luton while we are at it!

The price of freedom and an open society is its vulnerability to such terrorists, but being in or out of the EU is not going to make a jot of difference. If you are relying on a visa clerk in the British embassy in Brussels to provide us with safety then we are going to need about a thousand more and very intrusive vetting!

California, Quebec and Australia do not have areas of cities infested with Islamists where the police fear to go.

But parts of the UK do!

That is a damning statement of the pathetic governments that have abandoned our borders in times gone by. It is time to stop adding to the problem by continuing their mistakes.

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Tories 100% behind Osborne with Gove right beside him. Written off too early?

He's not quite back into 7-4 territory yet, but those laying Osborne at any price could turn out to be expensive...

People forget 2 men have dominated UK politics for the last decade. Cameron is one of them.

One man has dominated UK politics for the last decade - Dave. Osborne rode in on his coat tails and without Dave he would not be chancellor, he may have just entered the Cabinet in energy or transport.

Osborne was shadow Chancellor before Cameron was leader wasn't he?

by several months

Cenbuterol - would be interesting to see if there is much medical research with the body building community - though I can understand not wanting to legitimise unsafe practises.

PAW said:

Cenbuterol - would be interesting to see if there is much medical research with the body building community - though I can understand not wanting to legitimise unsafe practises.

I believe it is widely used among body builders. Also, it seems that is the active ingredient in some diet tablets.

MaxPB said:

Danny565 said:

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

Potentially in poor taste, but sadly relevant to betting and politics

@theobertram: According to ComRes, Sadiq trails Zac by 7 pts on "keeping London safe from terrorist attacks" https://t.co/r7SnFTiw6j

As a Zac campaigner I didn't want to point this out, but with the polls already narrowing the race is on. The "Corbyn's man" attack is really going to come into play now, I expect the next literature to include Corbyn's views on shoot to kill and having a cup of tea with ISIS.

Do people really think the Mayor actually has any powers over "keeping Londoners safe" (or indeed powers over anything apart from transport or housing)?

When you don't know who's side the mayor is on, ours or the terrorists, it's important. With Corbyn's views on ISIS and Sadiq's dodgy links to convicted terrorist supporters and organisations this is very relevant to a city like London where the threat of a terrorist attack is very real.

Oh get off your high horse mate. Zac is toast. You're wasting your time.
Cameron's activities in Syria and Libya have been immensely damaging to our security. His bowing and scraping to jihadi sponsors in Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia has been a disgrace. Corbyn's suggestions that we should first of all tackle these sponsors, especially where they are our allies, and also consider dealing with the less radical of the foot soldiers (many of whom are just effectively poor regional mercenaries) in a way that peels them off from the real jihadis, makes absolute sense, in a way that being best buds with the world's primary sponsors of terror whilst firing about 5 useless missiles in three months does not.

Danny565 said:

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

IIRC from the full article, Plaid are 1% ahead of Tories on list seats.

Worth reading the entrails.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

RE: Wales and the Yougov poll
With Labour polling of 31%, it is so low on, I assume, unadjusted weightings post GE2015, there is room for a further drop of circa 2% within these numbers. There must be a tipping point below which Labour lose sheds loads of seats. Does any one have an idea where that is?

Wales has been very gradually shifting against Labour, relative to the rest of the country, since 1970. There was a shift back to Labour in 1987, and 1992, probably due to having a Welsh leader, but then the pro-Conservative shift resumed, in relative terms. 11 Welsh seats is a very strong Conservative result, by historical standards. They beat that in 1983, with 14 seats, but that was when the party led by 16% nationally.

In many ways, Wales is not a very good fit for Labour demographically these days. There aren't many major metropolises (with the obvious exception of the Cardiff area), population is overwhelmingly white.

There were no Tory seats in Wales in 1997.

Plato_Says said:

I want to slap her.

FrancisUrquhart said:

And its starts already....wet "academic" on Sky blaming casual racism against Moroccans in Beligum as the reason for all of this.

Dangerous thing to say Geert Wilders is on trial for this.

Pew Research
Republicans prefer blunt talk about Islamic extremism, Democrats favor caution https://t.co/OMCEclPogf https://t.co/KY0rSaQWp2

RodCrosby said:

14:25 GMT
The EU Commission HQ in Brussels is being evacuated, Belga news reported, citing the police.

It was in lockdown after the original attacks. Is this just letting them go home?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Words are always inadequate to describe our sense of outrage at these attacks.

Or indeed our sense of sorrow at the suffering of people today, those who have lost people they loved, those who have family and friends injured.

JWisemann said:

MaxPB said:

Danny565 said:

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

Potentially in poor taste, but sadly relevant to betting and politics

@theobertram: According to ComRes, Sadiq trails Zac by 7 pts on "keeping London safe from terrorist attacks" https://t.co/r7SnFTiw6j

As a Zac campaigner I didn't want to point this out, but with the polls already narrowing the race is on. The "Corbyn's man" attack is really going to come into play now, I expect the next literature to include Corbyn's views on shoot to kill and having a cup of tea with ISIS.

Do people really think the Mayor actually has any powers over "keeping Londoners safe" (or indeed powers over anything apart from transport or housing)?

When you don't know who's side the mayor is on, ours or the terrorists, it's important. With Corbyn's views on ISIS and Sadiq's dodgy links to convicted terrorist supporters and organisations this is very relevant to a city like London where the threat of a terrorist attack is very real.

Cameron's activities in Syria and Libya have been immensely damaging to our security.

As damaging as Blair in Iraq?

T'his somewhat ignores that something similar to every single one of the above actions or functions has, at some point in the last 10 years or so, been enacted or deployed within Britain solely by the UK government in the fight against terror.'

What are you on about?

Britain has had an army, justice system and border forces of its own for centuries. Under the control of its own government. And yes, it has restricted people's rights too - but we can vote for or against that.

If the EU takes over these functions, we will lose democratic oversight over them and some valuable features of our particular systems too (e.g. jury trials and perhaps even the presumption of innocence).

And don't for one moment think these things are not on the cards - the plans are quite public. Only the moment is uncertain...but the EU never wastes a crisis.