politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories are very lucky the Lib Dems didn’t accept George

Brexit backers are less likely to have friends from the EU or to have been on holiday to an EU nation those that have are more likely to go to Spain, Remain backers to France

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

A most neutral source.

Well he also confirms in his book (written well before the latest flare up) that IDS was driven by a desire to improve the welfare system but was consistently and fatally blocked and undermined by Osborne and the Treasury.

You were saying this on Friday, but the NAO and PAC seem to think that the problem with reform and UC was more down to mismanagement in the department than anything else. It comes across as a rather poor attempt at maligning remain-supporting Osborne.

I agree IDS believes (rightly) in the reform. But implementation hasn't gone well, and that's the department's fault.

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/universal-credit-early-progress-2/
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmpubacc/619/61903.htm

The faults in implementation are always held against the Ministers. They are however 99% the fault of terrible project management by the civil servants.

Freudian slip by David Coulthard;

'I'm sure there's plenty of Ferrari fans out there who would willingly pay £800 for one of Sebastian Vettel's nuts.'

That's been about the high point of a truly terrible package from C4, sadly.

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Freudian slip by David Coulthard;

'I'm sure there's plenty of Ferrari fans out there who would willingly pay £800 for one of Sebastian Vettel's nuts.'

That's been about the high point of a truly terrible package from C4, sadly.

Even worse than when ITV had the coverage?

Yes.

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Freudian slip by David Coulthard;

'I'm sure there's plenty of Ferrari fans out there who would willingly pay £800 for one of Sebastian Vettel's nuts.'

That's been about the high point of a truly terrible package from C4, sadly.

Even worse than when ITV had the coverage?

Yes.

Crickey it must be really really bad then...

They have the ad breaks. How, in a HIGHLIGHTS package, do you cut off in mid sentence and come back midway through another sentence? Surely a little overdubbing would solve that?

EDIT - showing footage of Alonso's horrendous crash with the hashtag 'Sunday drivers' was also beyond crass and tasteless.

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

Freudian slip by David Coulthard;

'I'm sure there's plenty of Ferrari fans out there who would willingly pay £800 for one of Sebastian Vettel's nuts.'

That's been about the high point of a truly terrible package from C4, sadly.

Even worse than when ITV had the coverage?

Yes.

Crickey it must be really really bad then...

They have the ad breaks. How, in a HIGHLIGHTS package, do you cut off in mid sentence and come back midway through another sentence? Surely a little overdubbing would solve that?

EDIT - showing footage of Alonso's horrendous crash with the hashtag 'Sunday drivers' was also beyond crass and tasteless.

Passed the comment onto someone I know who is professionally concerned with broadcasting F1 races.

Prof Tim Bale on IDS exit.

https://theconversation.com/iain-duncan-smith-resignation-flesh-wound-or-more-serious-blow-for-cameron-56574

Flesh wound or something more telling?

Make what you will

.@RealBenCarson on potential position in @realDonaldTrump administration: "I have NO desire for title" @FoxNews @MariaBartiromo

perdix said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

A most neutral source.

"Being in power” is, at bottom, the Tory Party’s raison d’être. Above that there are two factions. “Pull up the ladder, Jack", aka Thatcherism, and "nobless oblge", aka Lady Bountiful, which IDS is trying to sort of sanctify with his “care for the less fortunate”.

You are wrong about the Tory ladder. The Labour ladder does not exist except jobs on the public payroll.

In what way am I wrong about the ladder? It’s the attitude of many Tories I meet. You clearly do not live in Essex!

Many Labour voters are not State employees, but don’t let your prejudices get in the way of the facts.

HYUFD said:

It would have been more sensible for Osborne to back AV that way Tory and LD voters could have preferences each other and any Tories defecting to UKIP could have put the Tory candidate as their second preference. The Tories won under FPTP anyway in 2015, though under AV the majority would likely have been higher but in 2020 with a rising UKIP vote post a narrow Remain win AV could make the difference between a hung parliament and a Tory majority

Yes indeed. Osborne is not sensible at all. In fact, he is very short-sighted and rather stupid.

But best to let ci-devant Tories say that.

This just hows how "defeatist" Cameron and Osborne are.

The fact they couldn't in any way envisage a scenario where they could secure a majority government tells you everything you need to know.

This supremely silly pair set their sights so low it's no wonder the EU renegotiation turned into such a fiasco and they are now in the process of destroying the Tory Party so that they can keep us shackled to the EU at any and all costs.

Weak. Weak. Weak.

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

61% are 10/10 certain to vote, 70% 9 or 10 and 76% 8/9 or 10.

41% are for Leave, 40% for Remain and 19% Don't Know, winning the undecided is key for Remain. Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35% which could help that effort

Conversely, more think they'd be better off than worse off if Leave won.

The poll confirms that Leave's biggest strength is that their voters care more about the outcome than the other side do.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

A most neutral source.

What interest does Laws have to lie about it, seeing his political career is over??

A point worth considering, to be sure, although it often seems people will sometimes lie or distort long past the point where it would logically benefit themselves. Not saying that's the case here, although his recollection and interpretation may well differ from the others, but just that we cannot always assume someone who has no obvious benefit to distorting is not doing so. There can also be political benefits wider than oneself sometimes, of course.

0_o

AndyJS said:

Feeling really chuffed — Dawn Butler has just decided to follow me on Twitter.

Casino_Royale said:

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35% .........

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

Perhaps if one were to re-phrase this as "the EU is a good idea", that might explain the result.

Further to below, the electrification scheme problems show ministers doing it right. Network Rail were utterly failing with the first electrification scheme on the western main line. Costs have tripled, and it is being delivered far later than planned.

There were indications it was going wrong, but when ministers got the first official report a year into the scheme they acted. They paused the other electrification schemes (not cancelled which some on here still claim), and asked the DoT and Network Rail to come up with a plan to get the Western scheme back on track and replan the others - sadly delaying them, but hopefully making the schemes deliverable.

The problems were detected after a year, and ministers accepted there were problems. Other projects were paused for replanning. Once that replanning was complete after four months the schemes were unpaused (although some scheduled pre-planned preparatory work had continued regardless).

Good reporting allowed ministers to detect a problem; they acted; the schemes were replanned, and ministers accepted that report. Hopefully the new schemes will go better as a consequence.

The difference with the WCML upgrade are telling, where money was spent for many years more than needed before those parts of the scheme were shelved.

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

Point of order. If this had gone ahead then no PPCs for these seats would have been selected. These were not MPs by definition. So not colleagues yet. This deal would have been designed to save those who were colleagues already.

Scott_P said:

This would be fun...

@MichaelPDeacon: Tory minister: Cameron would "welcome" a leadership challenge because it would allow him to "get rid of the twats" https://t.co/IAk2q01UOj

Bring it on!

The language coming from Cameron and his cronies is quite poor. Looks like they are running scared.

OT trivia

Personal computers are now 99.9% cheaper than in 1980. Software is 99.3% cheaper than its price in 1980. https://t.co/4uCcISCFAT

Plato_Says said:

OT trivia

Personal computers are now 99.9% cheaper than in 1980. Software is 99.3% cheaper than its price in 1980. https://t.co/4uCcISCFAT

It'll be interesting to see how they calculate the 'cost' of software, given the increased capability of software. Cost per line of code would be a *really* bad way of doing it ...

@ydoethur, you may be interested in a post I made here: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/970402/#Comment_970402

ydoethur said:

On my former council estate, prices have spiked alarmingly. A property worth £95,000 last year is now being sold with an asking price of £119,000. At the same time, a house sold last year for 95 has just beenput out to rent for £700 a month. Last year it would have been £550.

Something is going very wrong somewhere. My guess is BTL landlords who have incorporated already are looking to max out on purchases before the rules change, and as these are solid, three bed semis with gardens , ideal starter homes, they are being fought over fiercely.

But I don't think it will end well. That woman with seventeen houses is (a) a fool (b) surely going to have to sell. That could well see prices crashing and rents spiralling.

A well-meaning policy badly implemented with disastrous results; cf. academies, foundation trusts, pasty tax, HS2, Forestry Commission...

It's a most peculiar thing, he'd stand for re-election, then stand down as already announced?

Absurd.

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

This would be fun...

@MichaelPDeacon: Tory minister: Cameron would "welcome" a leadership challenge because it would allow him to "get rid of the twats" https://t.co/IAk2q01UOj

Bring it on!

The language coming from Cameron and his cronies is quite poor. Looks like they are running scared.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

Relax. There are many people who do not hate the EU, but merely think we should not be a part of it.

The question was specifically 'do you think that overall it is a good thing the UK is a member of the EU? '

OldKingCole said:

perdix said:

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

A most neutral source.

"Being in power” is, at bottom, the Tory Party’s raison d’être. Above that there are two factions. “Pull up the ladder, Jack", aka Thatcherism, and "nobless oblge", aka Lady Bountiful, which IDS is trying to sort of sanctify with his “care for the less fortunate”.

You are wrong about the Tory ladder. The Labour ladder does not exist except jobs on the public payroll.

In what way am I wrong about the ladder? It’s the attitude of many Tories I meet. You clearly do not live in Essex!

Many Labour voters are not State employees, but don’t let your prejudices get in the way of the facts.

I now do live in Essex and Essex man is all about getting on

Stark_Dawning said:

GIN1138 said:

This just hows how "defeatist" Cameron and Osborne are.

The fact they couldn't in any way envisage a scenario where they could secure a majority government tells you everything you need to know.

This supremely silly pair set their sights so low it's no wonder the EU renegotiation turned into such a fiasco and they are now in the process of destroying the Tory Party so that they can keep us shackled to the EU at any and all costs.

Weak. Weak. Weak.

Weren't you firmly in the Ed-will-be-PM camp?

I could never see Ed Miliband as PM (especially with such dire personal ratings) but the daft pollsters kept telling us he would be and in the end I did waver...

However, I'm not even a member of the Conservative Party so what I think doesn't matter. You would think as leader and Chancellor Cameron and Osborne would have had more confidence in themselves and their abilities rather than scrabbling about looking to a "coupon election" virtually from the start of the Coalition.

Our entire political class is just so defeatist and lacking in confidence, both in themselves and their country...

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Totally O/T ...but just watched a documentary about violence and crime in South Africa. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was THAT bad.

50 murders a day and rising, 7% conviction rate, 95% reoffender rate.

There are now over 500,000 people working in private security. Most are defacto police / army.

You'll never hear a lefty talking about this subject because it contradicts their most cherished beliefs.

You never hear anyone talking about it.

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

Still under 50% though but probably enough to ensure a narrow Remain win

My mouth is hanging open that almost 50% of my fellow countrymen think the EU is a "good thing". Despite all the evidence and experiences we've had to date.

Simply astonishing.

I think it depends whether people are thinking about European politicians or ordinary European people and society.

The question was specifically 'do you think that overall it is a good thing the UK is a member of the EU? '

That's still vague though - it could be considered 'a good thing' in the Lord Bramall/Niall Ferguson sense of us being there helping save the Europeans from themselves.

Or you could, as one of my old Economics Professorz believed, think the UK's membership is a good thing for social/political reasons yet oppose it on narrowly economic grounds.

Plato_Says said:

It's a most peculiar thing, he'd stand for re-election, then stand down as already announced?

Absurd.

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

This would be fun...

@MichaelPDeacon: Tory minister: Cameron would "welcome" a leadership challenge because it would allow him to "get rid of the twats" https://t.co/IAk2q01UOj

Bring it on!

The language coming from Cameron and his cronies is quite poor. Looks like they are running scared.

Yes and No - unlike most leaders he had already stated when he was going, but that was just by 2020, which is an age in politics. He intended to last until at least close to that, so would surely argue he had not completed the job he set out to do.

I really don't see it as that absurd as a result - he said he would leave on his own terms, and now he is being forced out not on his terms and is fighting that, not fighting the principle that he will go at some stage.

Plato_Says said:

That socialist paradise...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-16/venezuela-to-shut-down-for-a-week-as-electricity-crisis-mounts

That's what you call pulling the plug - Literally!

JosiasJessop said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

MikeK said:

Laws confirms that Cammo and Osbo will do anything to keep in power, even to betraying 50 of their colleagues for personal gain. What a pair of wankers; they deserve all they get from the mass of the conservative party, when this news filters down.

A most neutral source.

Well he also confirms in his book (written well before the latest flare up) that IDS was driven by a desire to improve the welfare system but was consistently and fatally blocked and undermined by Osborne and the Treasury.

You were saying this on Friday, but the NAO and PAC seem to think that the problem with reform and UC was more down to mismanagement in the department than anything else. It comes across as a rather poor attempt at maligning remain-supporting Osborne.

I agree IDS believes (rightly) in the reform. But implementation hasn't gone well, and that's the department's fault.

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/universal-credit-early-progress-2/
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmselect/cmpubacc/619/61903.htm

The faults in implementation are always held against the Ministers. They are however 99% the fault of terrible project management by the civil servants.

True to a certain extent; but not fully. Civil servants do what is ordered, and the overall project management of such an important scheme needs to come from the top. Not every day items, but critical ones. And yes, this is the same for *all* ministers, whether remainers or leavers.

Even the summaries of the report point to management problems at the top, for instance:

However, the Department lacked an overarching business transformation strategy, and focused its effort on the programme's IT aspects. The failure to develop a comprehensive plan which will deliver these important changes has led to substantial nugatory expenditure which has yet to be finally determined and extensive delays in the implementation of the programme.

Despite that, it paints a very different picture from the rather curious one Richard was spinning.

Does that not just show what an absolute crock our democratic system is? Take someone, maybe a small town solicitor or, perhaps, a polytechnic lecturer, or maybe even a PR bod for a media company, and then, because they have climbed the greasy political pole, expect them to take charge of massively complex multi-million/billion pound projects. It is a nonsense. It might have been fit for purpose when it was designed, but that is more than 200 years ago.

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Totally O/T ...but just watched a documentary about violence and crime in South Africa. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was THAT bad.

50 murders a day and rising, 7% conviction rate, 95% reoffender rate.

There are now over 500,000 people working in private security. Most are defacto police / army.

You'll never hear a lefty talking about this subject because it contradicts their most cherished beliefs.

Does it?

South Africa is a very economically unequal society, with a still massive racial divide, rampant unemployment, limited welfare state and high rates of addiction and gun ownership. Is that not a major recipe for crime in any lefties book? I have been there several times, it is an amazing country with a great deal to see, but be very careful in any city.

Like Russia, it's a place I know I will never visit.

surbiton said:

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

This would be fun...

@MichaelPDeacon: Tory minister: Cameron would "welcome" a leadership challenge because it would allow him to "get rid of the twats" https://t.co/IAk2q01UOj

Bring it on!

The language coming from Cameron and his cronies is quite poor. Looks like they are running scared.

I think Cameron will beat any of the "*utters" as Major did easily.

With hindsight it is hard to believe Major won so easily in 1995, when he put himself up for relection of the Conservative Party.
Cameron would not be able to use the same tactic , as he has already said he would not stand at the next General Election.

I expect Major to be rolled out soon on the Marr show though, to tell the party and the country to vote remain.

viewcode said:

@ydoethur, you may be interested in a post I made here: http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/970402/#Comment_970402

ydoethur said:

On my former council estate, prices have spiked alarmingly. A property worth £95,000 last year is now being sold with an asking price of £119,000. At the same time, a house sold last year for 95 has just beenput out to rent for £700 a month. Last year it would have been £550.

Something is going very wrong somewhere. My guess is BTL landlords who have incorporated already are looking to max out on purchases before the rules change, and as these are solid, three bed semis with gardens , ideal starter homes, they are being fought over fiercely.

But I don't think it will end well. That woman with seventeen houses is (a) a fool (b) surely going to have to sell. That could well see prices crashing and rents spiralling.

A well-meaning policy badly implemented with disastrous results; cf. academies, foundation trusts, pasty tax, HS2, Forestry Commission...

Interesting, thank you.

Haven't seen the massive amount of bailing out in the last fortnight though, although as it's generally a quiet time of year anyway that's maybe not so surprising.

I hope prices will correct somewhat now but I'm not convinced they will. The housing bubble is the only bubble that inflated more readily than it bursts.

Recidivist said:

Mortimer said:

God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.

Master strategist?!

It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.

It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.

Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.

I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.

Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Totally O/T ...but just watched a documentary about violence and crime in South Africa. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was THAT bad.

50 murders a day and rising, 7% conviction rate, 95% reoffender rate.

There are now over 500,000 people working in private security. Most are defacto police / army.

You'll never hear a lefty talking about this subject because it contradicts their most cherished beliefs.

Does it?

South Africa is a very economically unequal society, with a still massive racial divide, rampant unemployment, limited welfare state and high rates of addiction and gun ownership. Is that not a major recipe for crime in any lefties book? I have been there several times, it is an amazing country with a great deal to see, but be very careful in any city.

The documentary suggested another big cause...reverse racism, where by when Mandela got elected the mostly white defence force was disbanded and all major police roles were filled with blacks and whites demoted. Result totally untrained and inept management and the "skilled" whites have left and run the private security firms. And even with black run police force, police brutality is as bad as ever.

Good afternoon, everyone.

It's not so long ago that I compared Osborne to Antigonus Monopthalmus. It seems more apt than ever, in terms of political fortunes.

GIN1138 said:

Yorkcity said:

surbiton said:

MP_SE said:

Scott_P said:

This would be fun...

@MichaelPDeacon: Tory minister: Cameron would "welcome" a leadership challenge because it would allow him to "get rid of the twats" https://t.co/IAk2q01UOj

Bring it on!

The language coming from Cameron and his cronies is quite poor. Looks like they are running scared.

I think Cameron will beat any of the "*utters" as Major did easily.

With hindsight it is hard to believe Major won so easily in 1995, when he put himself up for relection of the Conservative Party.
Cameron would not be able to use the same tactic , as he has already said he would not stand at the next General Election.

I expect Major to be rolled out soon on the Marr show though, to tell the party and the country to vote remain.

I'm sure he will... After all he thought we'd got to stay in the ERM at all costs (and ended up forcing thousands of people out of their homes as a result of his madness)

What gets me is how shameless these people (Major, Clarke, Hezza, Cameron, etc) are. When it comes to the EU they've been proved wrong at virtually every turn yet still they keep on peddling their defeatist nonsense....

Gin you have a good point.
Marr never tackles Major over the ERM fiasco in 91-92.
He treats him as an elder statesman with virtuous appeal to middle england.

runnymede said:

No-one should forget Major's record on the EU;

Apart from his utter incompetence on the ERM there was also his failure to kill Maastricht when he had the chance; his connivance in the bullying of the Danes into a second referendum; his disgraceful denial of the UK public a referendum on the same Treaty and of course his laughable posturing after the EU shafted him on some of the 'opt-outs'.

He has done more to create the current mess we are in, in the EU, than anyone, even Heath. And he has been more deceitful over his intentions than Heath was as well. This is the man whose government claimed 'Maastricht puts the break on Federalism'.

Indeed. JM, of whom I am a huge fan electorally, was hopelessly lost in the arena of European politics.

FrancisUrquhart said:

foxinsoxuk said:

AndyJS said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Totally O/T ...but just watched a documentary about violence and crime in South Africa. I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was THAT bad.

50 murders a day and rising, 7% conviction rate, 95% reoffender rate.

There are now over 500,000 people working in private security. Most are defacto police / army.

You'll never hear a lefty talking about this subject because it contradicts their most cherished beliefs.

Does it?

South Africa is a very economically unequal society, with a still massive racial divide, rampant unemployment, limited welfare state and high rates of addiction and gun ownership. Is that not a major recipe for crime in any lefties book? I have been there several times, it is an amazing country with a great deal to see, but be very careful in any city.

The documentary suggested another big cause...reverse racism, where by when Mandela got elected the mostly white defence force was disbanded and all major police roles were filled with blacks and whites demoted. Result totally untrained and inept management and the "skilled" whites have left and run the private security firms. And even with black run police force, police brutality is as bad as ever.

I think that is definitely true, but not the whole truth. The white led security and police services were heavily compromised by involvement in apartheid and needed an overhaul. There is also a long legacy of police being seen as an occupying and oppressing force by the majority of the people. It is still a very long way from our "policing by consent".

I would recommend both "Tsotsi" and "District 9" amongst the best SA films of all time, both heavily about policing in RSA:

http://www.imdb.com/list/ls075144976/

"District 9" is possibly the most interesting SciFi film of recent times. I think J M Coetzee's "Disgrace" was much better as a book, the film lacked nuance, but is also very good on the dilemmas of post apartheid South Africa.

foxinsoxuk said:

I think that is definitely true, but not the whole truth. The white led security and police services were heavily compromised by involvement in apartheid and needed an overhaul. There is also a long legacy of police being seen as an occupying and oppressing force by the majority of the people. It is still a very long way from our "policing by consent".

Its the same issue / mistake as made in Iraq. The army and police were seem that way so the American's sacked them all and has caused more trouble.

Mortimer said:

Recidivist said:

Mortimer said:

God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.

Master strategist?!

It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.

It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.

Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.

I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.

Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.

Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

.
It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.

Quite: I think there is a tendency to think that all nations have the same choices we do.

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

.
It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.

Or the Ice Twins retaining a high place on European book charts.

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Plato_Says said:

MineForNothing
Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote

Those backing Remain - 59%
Those backing Leave - 76%

#Brexit

Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%

If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.

.
It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.

Except the question specifically asked about the UK's membership of the EU being a good thing

Freggles said:

At what point do we send out a search party?

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/Richard_Nabavi

May need to hide sharp objects and take away belts.

Really neat comparison of motivations

Matthew Goodwin
Remain voters vs Leave voters. How will you use your vote in #EUref? Picture from latest ORB poll -> https://t.co/mJ9DsyjON6

Freggles said:

At what point do we send out a search party?

http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/profile/Richard_Nabavi

Must be an incredibly difficult couple of days for poor Richard. Goodness knows how he will react when Cameron receive the inevitable vote of no confidence.