MineForNothing Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote
Those backing Remain - 59% Those backing Leave - 76%
#Brexit
Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%
If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.
. It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.
Or the Ice Twins retaining a high place on European book charts.
I saw The Ice Twins at a Chambery book store in Friday. Some poor deluded Frenchman was trying to buy it, but I dissuaded him.
On my former council estate, prices have spiked alarmingly. A property worth £95,000 last year is now being sold with an asking price of £119,000. At the same time, a house sold last year for 95 has just beenput out to rent for £700 a month. Last year it would have been £550.
Something is going very wrong somewhere. My guess is BTL landlords who have incorporated already are looking to max out on purchases before the rules change, and as these are solid, three bed semis with gardens , ideal starter homes, they are being fought over fiercely.
But I don't think it will end well. That woman with seventeen houses is (a) a fool (b) surely going to have to sell. That could well see prices crashing and rents spiralling.
A well-meaning policy badly implemented with disastrous results; cf. academies, foundation trusts, pasty tax, HS2, Forestry Commission...
Interesting, thank you.
Haven't seen the massive amount of bailing out in the last fortnight though, although as it's generally a quiet time of year anyway that's maybe not so surprising.
I hope prices will correct somewhat now but I'm not convinced they will. The housing bubble is the only bubble that inflated more readily than it bursts.
The bailing-out won't last long (Easter is next week). What it does do is enable houses to stay on the market for a few weeks longer, which gives the buyer more chance to make a lower offer which may be accepted. It won't last, but it makes things calmer.
House prices in England[1][2] don't usually revise downwards. They did in 2008 (when they fell about 20% in 1 year and everybody shat themselves) but the Brown administration bought in emergency legislation to make forced repossessions more difficult (court cases were literally stopped mid-course) and England did not see the enormous falls seen in the US or Ireland. Prices then stayed stable until about 2011? when Help to Buy and other market-interferery things were introduced and prices started to go up again. Then Osborne did his stupid thing and...well, here we are again.
If you want to see recent changes in real time in your area, go to Zoopla (http://www.zoopla.co.uk/ ), bring up the asking prices in your area, and sort by "most reduced"
[1] Scotland and Northern Ireland are entirely different markets with their own trends.
God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.
Master strategist?!
It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.
It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.
Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.
I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.
Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.
Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.
History will be the judge, but the demise of the 'Yellow tories' in the South will make future Tory governments much, much more likely than coalition deals AND make future Labour governments less likely.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
Totally off topic, but my Sunday afternoon will mostly be taken up with reading an 1816 novel for children called 'Mary and Fanny', published by the Minerva Press.
Appearing 2 years after Mansfield Park came out - I'm reading it in case there are any Austen influences; the title sure suggests there might be....
I'm afraid as Norman Stone hinted at, Major just isn't very bright.
Having an uneducated man as PM isn't a good idea - people like that will always cringe intellectually before the Foreign Office snake oil merchants.
The only person I know that knows him, is a self made billionaire who met him at Carlyle Group. Whatever his political failings, this person thought John Major to be tough, courteous, and extremely bright.
God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.
Master strategist?!
It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.
It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.
Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.
I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.
Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.
Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.
Some sense in that, but that new sensible Leader has to be in place by end of 2019 and ideally by the start of 2019.
MineForNothing Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote
Those backing Remain - 59% Those backing Leave - 76%
#Brexit
Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%
If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.
. It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.
Except the question specifically asked about the UK's membership of the EU being a good thing
It hasn't been a good thing where I live,especially in the last 5 to 6 year's when the new Eastern European countries joined.
I'm afraid as Norman Stone hinted at, Major just isn't very bright.
Having an uneducated man as PM isn't a good idea - people like that will always cringe intellectually before the Foreign Office snake oil merchants.
The only person I know that knows him, is a self made billionaire who met him at Carlyle Group. Whatever his political failings, this person thought John Major to be tough, courteous, and extremely bright.
A friend of mine worked at the Treasury in the Eighties and Nineties. He said that John Major was the nicest of all the Ministers that he dealt with for either party, and had a high opinion of his abilities too. His opinion on Brown is not for polite company.
In other news, Spurs trying to keep it interesting!
God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.
Master strategist?!
It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.
It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.
Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.
I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.
Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.
Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.
Some sense in that, but that new sensible Leader has to be in place by end of 2019 and ideally by the start of 2019.
I wasn't predicting it as a likely event, just a perfectly believable scenario. The Tories could just as easily find another Cameron, and the mismatch between the Labour Party membership and their MPs might get worse rather than better. I am just remembering that nobody had heard of Tony Blair in 1992.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.
Master strategist?!
It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.
It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.
Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.
I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.
Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.
Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.
Some sense in that, but that new sensible Leader has to be in place by end of 2019 and ideally by the start of 2019.
I wasn't predicting it as a likely event, just a perfectly believable scenario. The Tories could just as easily find another Cameron, and the mismatch between the Labour Party membership and their MPs might get worse rather than better. I am just remembering that nobody had heard of Tony Blair in 1992.
John Smith was far more moderate than Corbyn, the Umunnad and Jarvises will likely have to wait until 2020
MineForNothing Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote
Those backing Remain - 59% Those backing Leave - 76%
#Brexit
Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%
If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.
. It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.
Except the question specifically asked about the UK's membership of the EU being a good thing
It hasn't been a good thing where I live,especially in the last 5 to 6 year's when the new Eastern European countries joined.
That is your view I am just reporting the poll findings
Mr. Betting, my forthcoming and fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric (out 31 March) has nothing to do with my views on the matter. I merely want pbers to benefit from the improved health and boundless mirth which will doubtless attend those who enjoy the trouser-explodingly good book.
Osborne is getting ditched after the EU referendum. Cameron will be under massive pressure to go regardless of the result and after all this it seems obvious to me that Dave will throw his friend under the wheels to try and keep himself in power.
Question - with the blue on blue attacks getting nastier and increasing in frequency, might Osborne be gone before the referendum...?
Mr. Betting, my forthcoming and fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric (out 31 March) has nothing to do with my views on the matter. I merely want pbers to benefit from the improved health and boundless mirth which will doubtless attend those who enjoy the trouser-explodingly good book.
I have Sir Edric Temple and 20+ other books unread on my tablet- alas my spare time is spent on here with all these political events.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
I thought the libdems would hold on to Cambridge, Yeovil and a few other seats. Particularly gutted about the first of these as my labour party friend in Cambridge told me that Huppert was a dead cert to hold on - something backed up by the Ashcroft polling.
Osborne is getting ditched after the EU referendum. Cameron will be under massive pressure to go regardless of the result and after all this it seems obvious to me that Dave will throw his friend under the wheels to try and keep himself in power.
Question - with the blue on blue attacks getting nastier and increasing in frequency, might Osborne be gone before the referendum...?
Chances of Osborne gone sadly look slim as long as Cameron is around. Cameron's aim is clearly to get Osborne to take over. The penny is yet to drop with the pair that that Plan is over and they need a Plan B and their own early exits.
God - that would be been an appalling misjudgement of the public mood.
Master strategist?!
It doesn't strike me as a bad strategy at all. The outraged left leaning Lib Dems might well have split off to become a party that split the left vote and made it harder for Labour to break out of its heartlands. And losing the euroskeptic headbangers to UKIP would have made a more moderate version of the Conservative Party possible. If it involved absorbing the more right wing Lib Dems then even better. Reforming British politics into two left wing parties, a centre party and a very right wing one would pretty much get the Tories into power for ever.
It might look as if it would have been an even better idea by 2020.
Couldn't disagree more. It would also have prevented the Tory majority of 2015.
I live next door to a former LD/Tory southern marginals. It is now a safe Tory seat.
Destroying the LDs was a much, much better strategy.
Winning a general election isn't always the best outcome. If the Tories had narrowly lost in 1992 they might not have had to wait so long for another chance. And although Corbyn hasn't really hit the spot with the general public, and may never do so, he has certainly energised the Labour Party's base. In four year's time Labour could have a new leader, lots of highly motivated activists and a nice clear target in the form of a conservative government who have five years of having to make decisions that people haven't liked much. Having the Lib Dems out of the way could help Labour as much the Tories. It doesn't seem very likely at the moment, but 2020 could very easily be the next 1997.
Some sense in that, but that new sensible Leader has to be in place by end of 2019 and ideally by the start of 2019.
I wasn't predicting it as a likely event, just a perfectly believable scenario. The Tories could just as easily find another Cameron, and the mismatch between the Labour Party membership and their MPs might get worse rather than better. I am just remembering that nobody had heard of Tony Blair in 1992.
John Smith was far more moderate than Corbyn, the Umunnad and Jarvises will likely have to wait until 2020
That assumes that it was John Smith's moderation that made him popular. I have accepted the conventional wisdom that Labour can't win with a very left wing position for most of my life. But after Corbyn won the Labour leadership and the Labour Party's poll ratings didn't collapse as I had expected I have had to rethink that.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. I wonder, in a year's time will Labour or the Conservatives seem madder? The blues need either a post-referendum reconciliation or a crushing victory for one side (in the party, not necessarily the referendum).
To my eyes the only person at the top of the Conservatives who has spoken with sense and presence this weekend is Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922. He has the respect and votes of most of the backbenchers in his pocket. Sadly he probably lacks the ambition to leave the 1922 and go into cabinet now. But if that changed then his odds (circa 100/1) will drop dramatically. 1. Grammar school 2. LEAVER 3. Back bench support
Osborne is getting ditched after the EU referendum. Cameron will be under massive pressure to go regardless of the result and after all this it seems obvious to me that Dave will throw his friend under the wheels to try and keep himself in power.
Question - with the blue on blue attacks getting nastier and increasing in frequency, might Osborne be gone before the referendum...?
Chances of Osborne gone sadly look slim as long as Cameron is around. Cameron's aim is clearly to get Osborne to take over. The penny is yet to drop with the pair that that Plan is over and they need a Plan B and their own early exits.
Both have a surfeit of arrogance and entitlement and deficit in the self-awareness stakes, anyone wanting them to go before the time of their own choosing is going to need artillery and air support.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
I thought the libdems would hold on to Cambridge, Yeovil and a few other seats. Particularly gutted about the first of these as my labour party friend in Cambridge told me that Huppert was a dead cert to hold on - something backed up by the Ashcroft polling.
You are too modest rcs1000. I had a spreadsheet with LDs at mid 20 MPs and thought I might be following my heart than my head!
Osborne is getting ditched after the EU referendum. Cameron will be under massive pressure to go regardless of the result and after all this it seems obvious to me that Dave will throw his friend under the wheels to try and keep himself in power.
Question - with the blue on blue attacks getting nastier and increasing in frequency, might Osborne be gone before the referendum...?
Chances of Osborne gone sadly look slim as long as Cameron is around. Cameron's aim is clearly to get Osborne to take over. The penny is yet to drop with the pair that that Plan is over and they need a Plan B and their own early exits.
Both have a surfeit of arrogance and entitlement and deficit in the self-awareness stakes, anyone wanting them to go before the time of their own choosing is going to need artillery and air support.
I agree. Which is why Cameron and Osborne need to STFU about the EU and stop trying to rig opinion through the Govt machinery. All it is doing is piling up resentment within the party. Chances of them doing that are near zero.
Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. I wonder, in a year's time will Labour or the Conservatives seem madder? The blues need either a post-referendum reconciliation or a crushing victory for one side (in the party, not necessarily the referendum).
To my eyes the only person at the top of the Conservatives who has spoken with sense and presence this weekend is Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922. He has the respect and votes of most of the backbenchers in his pocket. Sadly he probably lacks the ambition to leave the 1922 and go into cabinet now. But if that changed then his odds (circa 100/1) will drop dramatically. 1. Grammar school 2. LEAVER 3. Back bench support
4. Top media performer.
Looks like a good combo. I'm on (but then I'm on about 20 contenders, so I shouldn't be taken as a tipster for this).
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
To be fair, I was still 1 out....hoping for more accuracy next time.
Mortimer - I should have added that rcs1000 was very vocal in his postings on PB. But well done you. How did you rationalise such a low number of LD MPs?
Mr. Betting, I quite agree. I do wonder if their response to IDS' going is akin to the loss of the Battle of Gaza (sticking with my Antigonus theme). It's not that important by itself, but it opens up a strategic can of worms.
MineForNothing Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote
Those backing Remain - 59% Those backing Leave - 76%
#Brexit
Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%
If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.
. It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.
Except the question specifically asked about the UK's membership of the EU being a good thing
It hasn't been a good thing where I live,especially in the last 5 to 6 year's when the new Eastern European countries joined.
That is your view I am just reporting the poll findings
It is,but I suspect since the new Eastern European countries joined and the mass immigration coming from these countries and putting pressure on our services have not helped Pro EU debate,if the EU had stayed with less nations,I'll probably be remain.
Just this week the Government gave Bradford a extra 23 million for 2018-19 financial year for the district's school places crisis,that compare's to £727,005 for 2017-18,that tells you we have immigration and baby boom crisis.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
To be fair, I was still 1 out....hoping for more accuracy next time.
Mortimer - I should have added that rcs1000 was very vocal in his postings on PB. But well done you. How did you rationalise such a low number of LD MPs?
After some detailed macro-economic analysis of LD/Tory marginals combined with monte carlo sims of different outcomes....I was shocked at how much our local LD/Tory marginal demographic had changed and stuck my finger in the air and came up with 9.
More seriously, I had canvassed the local LD/Tory marginal in 05 - one of a team of about 6. This time we had about 46, visits from Hammond, DC etc, and I was seeing hugely improved opinion.
On the day of the poll I was walking around with a blue rosette and getting smiles, encouraging words and people hooting their horns in support. In 05 I had doors slammed in my face.....
Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. I wonder, in a year's time will Labour or the Conservatives seem madder? The blues need either a post-referendum reconciliation or a crushing victory for one side (in the party, not necessarily the referendum).
To my eyes the only person at the top of the Conservatives who has spoken with sense and presence this weekend is Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922. He has the respect and votes of most of the backbenchers in his pocket. Sadly he probably lacks the ambition to leave the 1922 and go into cabinet now. But if that changed then his odds (circa 100/1) will drop dramatically. 1. Grammar school 2. LEAVER 3. Back bench support
4. Top media performer. Looks like a good combo. I'm on (but then I'm on about 20 contenders, so I shouldn't be taken as a tipster for this). DYOR.
Great point on number 4. Assured and come across as a nice chap - comfortable to have a beer and a chat with. There were some odds on Betfair at 1000+ to 1 ...... Alas no more.
I'm afraid as Norman Stone hinted at, Major just isn't very bright.
Having an uneducated man as PM isn't a good idea - people like that will always cringe intellectually before the Foreign Office snake oil merchants.
The only person I know that knows him, is a self made billionaire who met him at Carlyle Group. Whatever his political failings, this person thought John Major to be tough, courteous, and extremely bright.
Odd really, what I took from this morning was that it's good for a cabinet minister to be weapons grade thick as long as (a) their heart's in the right place; and (b) they hate David Cameron. Strange that some people have very different intellectual requirements for a CM and a PM.
Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. I wonder, in a year's time will Labour or the Conservatives seem madder? The blues need either a post-referendum reconciliation or a crushing victory for one side (in the party, not necessarily the referendum).
To my eyes the only person at the top of the Conservatives who has spoken with sense and presence this weekend is Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922. He has the respect and votes of most of the backbenchers in his pocket. Sadly he probably lacks the ambition to leave the 1922 and go into cabinet now. But if that changed then his odds (circa 100/1) will drop dramatically. 1. Grammar school 2. LEAVER 3. Back bench support
4. Top media performer. Looks like a good combo. I'm on (but then I'm on about 20 contenders, so I shouldn't be taken as a tipster for this). DYOR.
Great point on number 4. Assured and come across as a nice chap - comfortable to have a beer and a chat with. There were some odds on Betfair at 1000+ to 1 ...... Alas no more.
Agreed.
Do you know, I hadn't even thought of Graham until it was mentioned twice on here today.
I could well see it happening. Though cannot think of the last time (if ever?) chairman of the '22 has gone straight to PM.
Hindsight is 20/20 of course destroying the Lib Dems was good but who honestly thought that the Tories were going to take such a clean sweep of Lib Dems seats? Remember the infamous Lib Dems "cockroach" like nature to survive? And the "Liberal crutch" that was going to guarantee EICIPM?
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
rcs1000 was the most aggressive on the forecast of LD losses. I did forecast LDs down to "as few as 1 MEP" and a long term LD chap on here, told me I was having a wet dream!
To be fair, I was still 1 out....hoping for more accuracy next time.
Mortimer - I should have added that rcs1000 was very vocal in his postings on PB. But well done you. How did you rationalise such a low number of LD MPs?
After some detailed macro-economic analysis of LD/Tory marginals combined with monte carlo sims of different outcomes....I was shocked at how much our local LD/Tory marginal demographic had changed and stuck my finger in the air and came up with 9. More seriously, I had canvassed the local LD/Tory marginal in 05 - one of a team of about 6. This time we had about 46, visits from Hammond, DC etc, and I was seeing hugely improved opinion. On the day of the poll I was walking around with a blue rosette and getting smiles, encouraging words and people hooting their horns in support. In 05 I had doors slammed in my face.....
Thanks. I did a lot of canvassing in 2010+ (and organised circa 100 volunteers across roles) in a marginal vs LD but did very little in 2015 as I viewed it locally as very safe. (Correct) as the LDs were a busted flush locally. But I lacked the comparisons from the ground work. My rationale was that year after year of losing 40% of the cllr seats being defended would erode the LDs down at the GE. I just thought it nearer 25 than 8!
FPT. AlastairMeeks - "The IDS interview was evidently notable (I missed it) but still more extraordinary is the complete breakdown of any kind of discipline at junior ministerial rank on both sides of the current feud. David Cameron needs to have a fairly extensive reshuffle of the offending junior ministers."
Totally agree about the need for Cameron to hold a fairly extensive reshuffle in light of recent events. But while I would advise he plans it now, he shouldn't implement the reshuffle until after the EU Referendum result has been settled.
Just got back from Vote Leave leafleting on a newish estate. Lots of families with young children plus pensioners. Now I feel like I've accomplished something this weekend!
MineForNothing Opinium Survey - EU referendum: % who say they will "definitely" vote
Those backing Remain - 59% Those backing Leave - 76%
#Brexit
Overall voters think the EU is a good thing by 47% to 35%
If that's true, then I no longer understand my own country.
. It's quite possible to think the EU is a good thing, just not good for the UK. I might even think something like that myself, at times. After some very nice Rioja in a nice Spanish plaza, say.
Except the question specifically asked about the UK's membership of the EU being a good thing
It has been a good thing for the EU. Until recently it has been good for the UK. Since the 2008 crash the EU has started coming up with ideas that will actively harm the UK, I can see it being not a good thing in the near future unless they start to actually listen to the UK - and having our politicians actually stand up for the UK would be nice.
Just got back from Vote Leave leafleting on a newish estate. Lots of families with young children plus pensioners. Now I feel like I've accomplished something this weekend!
Comments
House prices in England[1][2] don't usually revise downwards. They did in 2008 (when they fell about 20% in 1 year and everybody shat themselves) but the Brown administration bought in emergency legislation to make forced repossessions more difficult (court cases were literally stopped mid-course) and England did not see the enormous falls seen in the US or Ireland. Prices then stayed stable until about 2011? when Help to Buy and other market-interferery things were introduced and prices started to go up again. Then Osborne did his stupid thing and...well, here we are again.
If you want to see recent changes in real time in your area, go to Zoopla (http://www.zoopla.co.uk/ ), bring up the asking prices in your area, and sort by "most reduced"
[1] Scotland and Northern Ireland are entirely different markets with their own trends.
Bird in the hand and all that....
The reality of course is that Cameron and co. did win an overall majority and did wipe out the Lib Dems against all expectations.
Appearing 2 years after Mansfield Park came out - I'm reading it in case there are any Austen influences; the title sure suggests there might be....
2nd Largest Nationality Living In Each European Country - https://t.co/Jx0JZlIO5K https://t.co/uOmhjifFNx
In other news, Spurs trying to keep it interesting!
Question - with the blue on blue attacks getting nastier and increasing in frequency, might Osborne be gone before the referendum...?
What is the 10/10 'certain to vote' split for Leave/Remain?
I wonder, in a year's time will Labour or the Conservatives seem madder?
The blues need either a post-referendum reconciliation or a crushing victory for one side (in the party, not necessarily the referendum).
A crushing Remain vote effectively would too.
Worse case scenario is a narrow Remain win.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/the-pb-ge15-competition-results-from-the-april-round/
To be fair, I was still 1 out....hoping for more accuracy next time.
And yet, a narrow Remain is a very realistic possibility and, perhaps, the likeliest outcome.
1. Grammar school
2. LEAVER
3. Back bench support
Looks like a good combo. I'm on (but then I'm on about 20 contenders, so I shouldn't be taken as a tipster for this).
DYOR.
Mr. Betting, I quite agree. I do wonder if their response to IDS' going is akin to the loss of the Battle of Gaza (sticking with my Antigonus theme). It's not that important by itself, but it opens up a strategic can of worms.
Just this week the Government gave Bradford a extra 23 million for 2018-19 financial year for the district's school places crisis,that compare's to £727,005 for 2017-18,that tells you we have immigration and baby boom crisis.
More seriously, I had canvassed the local LD/Tory marginal in 05 - one of a team of about 6. This time we had about 46, visits from Hammond, DC etc, and I was seeing hugely improved opinion.
On the day of the poll I was walking around with a blue rosette and getting smiles, encouraging words and people hooting their horns in support. In 05 I had doors slammed in my face.....
I'm unbelievably smug about that
Do you know, I hadn't even thought of Graham until it was mentioned twice on here today.
I could well see it happening. Though cannot think of the last time (if ever?) chairman of the '22 has gone straight to PM.
I'll get my coat.
I did a lot of canvassing in 2010+ (and organised circa 100 volunteers across roles) in a marginal vs LD but did very little in 2015 as I viewed it locally as very safe. (Correct) as the LDs were a busted flush locally. But I lacked the comparisons from the ground work. My rationale was that year after year of losing 40% of the cllr seats being defended would erode the LDs down at the GE. I just thought it nearer 25 than 8!
AlastairMeeks - "The IDS interview was evidently notable (I missed it) but still more extraordinary is the complete breakdown of any kind of discipline at junior ministerial rank on both sides of the current feud. David Cameron needs to have a fairly extensive reshuffle of the offending junior ministers."
Totally agree about the need for Cameron to hold a fairly extensive reshuffle in light of recent events. But while I would advise he plans it now, he shouldn't implement the reshuffle until after the EU Referendum result has been settled.
A good article from a democrat now supporting The Donald.
If you've just got a sample, it's temporarily unavailable (The Adventures of Sir Edric includes Temple, and a new, slightly larger, story).
Mr. Eagles, will my comment be up? I did submit it, but got a 404 after trying to post it.
Edited extra bit: good work, Mr. Blue.
Is all hope lost .. say it's not so !!
New Thread New Thread
Thanks for sharing