politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Referendum polling and betting update
Comments
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Yes, there are some echoes there.rcs1000 said:Things I've learned today: the American Known Nothing movement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
Well worth a read.0 -
Applause...nigel4england said:Can we recall Jade Dernbach?
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I am sure we can chase down 200+ in 20 overs....no laughing at the back...Lennon said:
Applause...nigel4england said:Can we recall Jade Dernbach?
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What a nitwit. The media kept him on life support
The Hill
Rubio blames media for killing his campaign: https://t.co/XxVF4Ijl3p https://t.co/74TIfkNlDo0 -
England out of the world cup after one game and 5 overs.
What the hell have we learnt from the Aussie coach,how not to bowl in limited overs ;-)
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John Rentoul
Lovely cartoon, found in my attic, by the great John Minnion, for New Statesman just after 1983 election I think https://t.co/PsJXWNvYKX0 -
Interestingrcs1000 said:Things I've learned today: the American Known Nothing movement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
Well worth a read.0 -
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.Speedy said:
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.Alistair said:
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.0 -
I take full responsibility for England in this World t20.
I tipped and backed them to win.0 -
It's a seriously dull betting event. Though the US Democrat race has now become a bigger cert for the favourite than this one.Barnesian said:
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.Speedy said:
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.Alistair said:
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.0 -
Sky score predictor...229....easy peasy....LOL...0
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http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/read-labour-mps-email-chain-mocking-corbyn/
Clive "BBC IS RACIST" Lewis is a moron....studied economics at the University of Bradford...need we say more?0 -
Arizona is substantially made up of Midwestern retirees. Pennsylvania is Appalachia in the middle. Pittsburg is in the West and similar to rustbelt.LondonBob said:
North Carolina around Raleigh looked odd to me, even odder that they would vote Cruz as an anti Trump vote, I would have expected Rubio or Kasich to do better there but not Cruz. Something to take into account with Wisconsin being an open primary, although I expect Reagan Democrats will outnumber them. A Trump caucus goer said in Minnesota a bunch of college kids showed up and were noisily anti Trump who then voted for Rubio, he said normally it is just old folks like him going to these caucuses.Speedy said:
Indeed, I think around half a million, most of them Sanders voters.Pulpstar said:My analysis of the results is leading me to the conclusion that alot of Democrats came out for Kasich in Ohio.
Also Illinois will stay very safely Democrat at the General
Sanders, by making the defeat of Trump the priority of his supporters, cost him victory in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri.
The University of Missouri results are an example.
People have to remember for next Tuesday Arizona is SW, unlike the Plains and Mountain West they aren't so offended by Trump's bombast and are a lot more tribal, settled by folks coming west from the Deep South and Appalachia. California and Arizona will be more like Nevada, Texas was just an anomaly as it was Cruz's home state.
Kasich has no hope in PA, he barely won his own state. PA is Appalachia in the west and strongly influence by NY in the east, very strong state for Trump which will be relevant for the general.
Utah only matters in the sense it is better to put it to bed sooner rather than later. Get your opponents to accept the inevitable etc.
Wasn't Kasich kicked off the ballot in Penn?0 -
Stokes to Duminy, FOUR, full toss on the legs
England going about as well as your nags, TSE0 -
This is great analysis and what I come to PB for. Thanks.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.0 -
What - and where - did you study?FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/read-labour-mps-email-chain-mocking-corbyn/
Clive "BBC IS RACIST" Lewis is a moron....studied economics at the University of Bradford...need we say more?0 -
Yes it is very interesting, however "value" in betting is a very overused and misunderstood word. With an event such as the EU referendum, where so many factors must be taken into account, any "value" is pure guesswork at this stage. Besides, since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.NorfolkTilIDie said:
This is great analysis and what I come to PB for. Thanks.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.0 -
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
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Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
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I see European Commission has been leaking insider emissions testing information to the big car companies:
http://corporateeurope.org/power-lobbies/2016/03/leak-shows-commission-giving-inside-information-car-lobby-new-emissions-tests0 -
PB Studies at the University of First!-ville.Pong said:
What - and where - did you study?FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/read-labour-mps-email-chain-mocking-corbyn/
Clive "BBC IS RACIST" Lewis is a moron....studied economics at the University of Bradford...need we say more?0 -
It's dull because it is a binary event whereas the US election has all the choices, rolling drama and betting opportunites of nominations by state. And that is before we get onto betting on the Senate. That's currently looking like 47 Dem, 50 Rep and 3 too close to call.Pulpstar said:
It's a seriously dull betting event. Though the US Democrat race has now become a bigger cert for the favourite than this one.Barnesian said:
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.Speedy said:
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.Alistair said:
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.0 -
"Apology accepted, Captain Needa!"TheScreamingEagles said:I take full responsibility for England in this World t20.
I tipped and backed them to win.0 -
Good old EU, working in our interest.NorfolkTilIDie said:I see European Commission has been leaking insider emissions testing information to the big car companies:
http://corporateeurope.org/power-lobbies/2016/03/leak-shows-commission-giving-inside-information-car-lobby-new-emissions-tests
'While this was news to the general public, the European Commission had known manufacturers were vastly exceeding limits back in 2011...'0 -
BoringTykejohnno said:England out of the world cup after one game and 5 overs.
What the hell have we learnt from the Aussie coach,how not to bowl in limited overs ;-)conversationsport anyway
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I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.blackburn63 said:
Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
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American Samoa!TheWhiteRabbit said:Pulpstar said:Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.
However if he can get 9 in Samoa,
Samoa (former Western Samoa) is an independent nation 0 -
Blimey, Don Cossack going off at 2-1 ?!
Crazily short price.0 -
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.Wanderer said:
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.blackburn63 said:
Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
btw who is Rubio?0 -
The "American" seemed superfluous in a conversation about the states and territories of the US.Sunil_Prasannan said:
American Samoa!TheWhiteRabbit said:Pulpstar said:Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.
However if he can get 9 in Samoa,
Samoa (former Western Samoa) is an independent nation
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Well his father was a bartender, and his mother was a maid.blackburn63 said:
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.Wanderer said:
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.blackburn63 said:
Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
btw who is Rubio?0 -
Don Cossack? Russian mafia boss???Pulpstar said:Blimey, Don Cossack going off at 2-1 ?!
Crazily short price.0 -
0
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_CossacksSandyRentool said:
Don Cossack? Russian mafia boss???Pulpstar said:Blimey, Don Cossack going off at 2-1 ?!
Crazily short price.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Been sending off ARCs (advanced review copies) to reviewers. I am not remotely nervous. Ahem.
F1: my pre-qualifying ramble is here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html
Not sure why, but I've got a feeling Raikkonen won't finish. Also, don't forget the McLaren has typically done better in Australia than elsewhere.0 -
He's won !SandyRentool said:
Don Cossack? Russian mafia boss???Pulpstar said:Blimey, Don Cossack going off at 2-1 ?!
Crazily short price.
Still say the price was too short - Cue card fell. Don Poli needed another mile 0 -
it'll be way out - oh wait.FrancisUrquhart said:Sky score predictor...229....easy peasy....LOL...
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The United States Department of State Background Note web page for neighboring Samoa notes that:TheWhiteRabbit said:
The "American" seemed superfluous in a conversation about the states and territories of the US.Sunil_Prasannan said:
American Samoa!TheWhiteRabbit said:Pulpstar said:Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.
However if he can get 9 in Samoa,
Samoa (former Western Samoa) is an independent nation
In July 1997 the Constitution was amended to change the country's name from Western Samoa to Samoa (officially the "Independent State of Samoa").[43] Western Samoa had been known simply as Samoa in the United Nations since joining the organization in 1976. The neighbouring U.S. territory of American Samoa protested the move, feeling that the change diminished its own Samoan identity. American Samoans still use the terms Western Samoa and Western Samoans.[44]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Samoa0 -
If we're talking value I'm happy to lay Chelsea at 1.8 tomorrow at home to West Ham.0
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Cromwell-adamus strikes again ....
Rubio - Not POTUS .. Not GOP Nominee .. Not a politician soon ....
Is he tipping the Trumpster next? .... 0 -
I think this is just an IEP, which is being foisted onto Virgin: they didn't have a choice.Sunil_Prasannan said:I gotta get me one of these:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-35842408
For reasons I've given before, I fear the IEP project is going to be a bit of a disaster for taxpayer and passengers alike.
A bit of misinformation from Virgin there. Then again, Branson thinks train drivers 'steer' trains ....0 -
Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.0 -
Is 2.5 overs England's fastest ever (team) 50, in any format of the game?0
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lolCasino_Royale said:Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further
. Aintree is the only place that is further... 0 -
The failure of his campaign has clearly deeply affected him on a personal level. Quite possibly because he put his parents and his personal story right at the heart of it.Pulpstar said:
Well his father was a bartender, and his mother was a maid.blackburn63 said:
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.Wanderer said:
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.blackburn63 said:
Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
btw who is Rubio?
I think he genuinely thought that was enough.0 -
Ladbrokes having the worst Cheltenham Festival in history.
I can't tell you how upset I am by that...0 -
I am in the market for good National bet tips :-)Pulpstar said:
lolCasino_Royale said:Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further. Aintree is the only place that is further...0 -
The only mark against him is his age, 7 is quite young for a national horse. But he looks like he'll stay all day and his jumping is solid enough. He IS very, very lazy but the national is a long old race...Casino_Royale said:
I am in the market for good National bet tips :-)Pulpstar said:
lolCasino_Royale said:Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further. Aintree is the only place that is further...0 -
Heidi Allen MP truly is a TINO.
If I were a whip, and this were the mid-1990s, I'd have her top of the defection watchlist.
If I were in the South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association I wouldn't be reselecting her for the new boundaries.0 -
Mr. Royale, TINO?0
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Life's a bitch .... if his father was a maid and his mother a bartender he's have been a POTUS cert ....Casino_Royale said:
The failure of his campaign has clearly deeply affected him on a personal level. Quite possibly because he put his parents and his personal story right at the heart of it.Pulpstar said:
Well his father was a bartender, and his mother was a maid.blackburn63 said:
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.Wanderer said:
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.blackburn63 said:
Eh?Wanderer said:
A Mr Rubio left a message for youblackburn63 said:since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
btw who is Rubio?
I think he genuinely thought that was enough. 0 -
Another raid underway in Brussels. One wounded + one possible death...
update: Reports it's Abdeslam0 -
Seems a bit short??Pulpstar said:
The only mark against him is his age, 7 is quite young for a national horse. But he looks like he'll stay all day and his jumping is solid enough. He IS very, very lazy but the national is a long old race...Casino_Royale said:
I am in the market for good National bet tips :-)Pulpstar said:
lolCasino_Royale said:Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further. Aintree is the only place that is further...0 -
Tory In Name OnlyMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, TINO?
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Mr. Royale, ah. What's she done/doing?0
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Saucy ..Casino_Royale said:Heidi Allen MP truly ....
If I were a whip, and this were the mid-1990s, I'd have her top off....
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What hasn't she done?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, ah. What's she done/doing?
I can detect a single centre-right thing about her.
She should be in the Labour Party.0 -
Pacha Du Polda would have won that with a better jockey, flew up the hill.0
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Well done her! I'm eating my words, I thought she'd be jumped off at the first fence, but she dropped him out, hunted round the back and ran on very respectably.
Very impressed well done Ms Pendleton.0 -
Oi, not you again Jack!JackW said:
Saucy ..Casino_Royale said:Heidi Allen MP truly ....
If I were a whip, and this were the mid-1990s, I'd have her top off....0 -
Average of EU polls since Cameron named the date (excluding non ballot questions):
Remain 41%
Leave 40%0 -
Well maybe but it's an amateurs' race, even though a Cheltenham Foxhunters' amateur is not the same as a Ludlow amateur.Pulpstar said:Pacha Du Polda would have won that with a better jockey, flew up the hill.
For her first ride round Cheltenham she did amazingly. Not a danger to anyone, not embarrassing herself, not anything apart from applying all the lessons she has learned and doing it very nicely.
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Mr. Royale, fair enough.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.0 -
Not exactly a great advert for the EU to have armed battles going on in its capital on a regular basis.0
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What a day at Cheltenham.
A double on the first and the Gold Cup
Winner in the 2nd (thanks to Pricewise)
Winner in the last (2/1 on Victoria Pendleton finishing)
and still 2 races to go.
The Bookies have lost £60m, and I have collected some of it for a change0 -
@Sonjamclaughlan: Owner of Pache du Polder tells @5liveSport the plan is for Victoria Pendleton to ride in the Foxhunters at Aintree0
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Winner in the last (2/1 on Victoria Pendleton finishing) o_O Who was that with ?0
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Gah that was a great bet.0
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In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, fair enough.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.0 -
Well what Thistlecrack gave, Don Poli took.
Took Skybet to the cleaners on wednesday anyway so overall a very good festival (Entirely due to Sprinter Sacre) 0 -
Her speech was terrific !Sean_F said:
In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, fair enough.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.0 -
The Saffers have not worked it out that they need slow bowlers here.0
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This is awesome. Andrew Neil meets his match
https://amp.twimg.com/v/a1ab77c2-6c07-4bb0-8da7-d6eeec5dbf360 -
O/T: I've removed Rubio from the GOP field.
Trump gains in the forecast, looks like Kasich will finish third in delegates.
Add in the previous comments about Rubio's existing delegates being re-allocated, and Trump is surely over the line?
Still available at 1.41 on BF.0 -
breaking: wounded Abdeslam in custody.0
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Mr. Crosby, that's some good news. Hope his wound is painful.0
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From a Labour point of view.surbiton said:
Her speech was terrific !Sean_F said:
In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Royale, fair enough.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.0 -
And another winner!0
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Moeen and Jordan still in the hutch. Looking good for England !0
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It's a stroll for England.0
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An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing.
I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35840272
Migrant crisis: Turkey and EU reach deal on returns
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Hungary and Slovakia should be kicked out of the EU. What do they contribute ? F*** All.MikeK said:An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing.
I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35840272
Migrant crisis: Turkey and EU reach deal on returns0 -
Well done, quite a successful Cheltenham festival – you are allowed to gloat until tea time.Scott_P said:And another winner!
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White powder sent to Trump's son...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3498193/Police-investigating-suspicious-package-sent-Eric-Trump-s-luxury-apartment.html0 -
Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out.
That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.0 -
May have to crack a bottle of the Tim Adams Aberfeldy this eveningSimonStClare said:Well done, quite a successful Cheltenham festival – you are allowed to gloat until tea time.
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And Kentucky might too:Pulpstar said:
Nevada has been reallocated ?Speedy said:Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out.
That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
"States where Rubio's delegates can or will be reallocated to another candidate:
Kentucky, Alaska, Nevada
In a small handful of states where Rubio has picked up delegates, the states' rules allow for those delegates to be reallocated to other candidates ahead of the convention (all in different ways, of course).
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
In Alaska, when a candidate leaves the race his or her delegates are simply proportionally redistributed to the remaining candidates. In the case of this year's caucuses, Cruz earned 12 delegates, Trump earned 11 and Rubio earned 5; Rubio's will be redistributed to Cruz and Trump.
And in Nevada, the withdrawing candidate has three options (in this case, Rubio has 7): the bound delegates can be kept; or those delegates can be released to vote for whichever candidate they like; or at the state convention, the delegates to be proportionally re-allocated to the remaining candidates."0 -
A dot ball !0
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It could always be Sherbert powder.RodCrosby said:White powder sent to Trump's son...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3498193/Police-investigating-suspicious-package-sent-Eric-Trump-s-luxury-apartment.html
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Apparently it will be:Pulpstar said:
Nevada has been reallocated ?Speedy said:Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out.
That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
And it looks good for Trump in Kentucky.0 -
Sorry, what's your complaint? That the EU is allowing 72,000 in, and that is too many? That the figure they'll be letting in under the scheme is higher? That the scheme should not be done because some will try to get in illegally?MikeK said:An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing.
I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35840272
Migrant crisis: Turkey and EU reach deal on returns0 -
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O/T Democracy in action.
"One survivor of the Bataclan massacre told of how a group 40 barricaded themselves in a tiny room for three hours, and were only saved from the gunmen thanks to the result of a vote, that was only won by a narrow majority."
http://www.thelocal.fr/20160318/how-a-show-of-hands-saved-40-from-bataclan-killers0
