Thank goodness that Farage or Merkel hadn't said that.
Farage would have been hung drawn and Quartered - Merkel would have just told her lap-dog press to delete the recording and threaten anyone that published it.
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls. Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls. Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.
It's a seriously dull betting event. Though the US Democrat race has now become a bigger cert for the favourite than this one.
My analysis of the results is leading me to the conclusion that alot of Democrats came out for Kasich in Ohio.
Also Illinois will stay very safely Democrat at the General
Indeed, I think around half a million, most of them Sanders voters.
Sanders, by making the defeat of Trump the priority of his supporters, cost him victory in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. The University of Missouri results are an example.
North Carolina around Raleigh looked odd to me, even odder that they would vote Cruz as an anti Trump vote, I would have expected Rubio or Kasich to do better there but not Cruz. Something to take into account with Wisconsin being an open primary, although I expect Reagan Democrats will outnumber them. A Trump caucus goer said in Minnesota a bunch of college kids showed up and were noisily anti Trump who then voted for Rubio, he said normally it is just old folks like him going to these caucuses.
People have to remember for next Tuesday Arizona is SW, unlike the Plains and Mountain West they aren't so offended by Trump's bombast and are a lot more tribal, settled by folks coming west from the Deep South and Appalachia. California and Arizona will be more like Nevada, Texas was just an anomaly as it was Cruz's home state.
Kasich has no hope in PA, he barely won his own state. PA is Appalachia in the west and strongly influence by NY in the east, very strong state for Trump which will be relevant for the general.
Utah only matters in the sense it is better to put it to bed sooner rather than later. Get your opponents to accept the inevitable etc.
Arizona is substantially made up of Midwestern retirees. Pennsylvania is Appalachia in the middle. Pittsburg is in the West and similar to rustbelt.
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls. Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
This is great analysis and what I come to PB for. Thanks.
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls. Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
This is great analysis and what I come to PB for. Thanks.
Yes it is very interesting, however "value" in betting is a very overused and misunderstood word. With an event such as the EU referendum, where so many factors must be taken into account, any "value" is pure guesswork at this stage. Besides, since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls. Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.
It doesn't seem to have affected the betting. We'll soon see whether it has affected the polls.
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.
It's a seriously dull betting event. Though the US Democrat race has now become a bigger cert for the favourite than this one.
It's dull because it is a binary event whereas the US election has all the choices, rolling drama and betting opportunites of nominations by state. And that is before we get onto betting on the Senate. That's currently looking like 47 Dem, 50 Rep and 3 too close to call.
Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.
However if he can get 9 in Samoa,
American Samoa!
Samoa (former Western Samoa) is an independent nation
The "American" seemed superfluous in a conversation about the states and territories of the US.
The United States Department of State Background Note web page for neighboring Samoa notes that:
In July 1997 the Constitution was amended to change the country's name from Western Samoa to Samoa (officially the "Independent State of Samoa").[43] Western Samoa had been known simply as Samoa in the United Nations since joining the organization in 1976. The neighbouring U.S. territory of American Samoa protested the move, feeling that the change diminished its own Samoan identity. American Samoans still use the terms Western Samoa and Western Samoans.[44]
Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
lol
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further . Aintree is the only place that is further...
since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
A Mr Rubio left a message for you
Eh?
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.
btw who is Rubio?
Well his father was a bartender, and his mother was a maid.
The failure of his campaign has clearly deeply affected him on a personal level. Quite possibly because he put his parents and his personal story right at the heart of it.
Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
lol
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further . Aintree is the only place that is further...
Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
lol
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further . Aintree is the only place that is further...
I am in the market for good National bet tips :-)
The only mark against him is his age, 7 is quite young for a national horse. But he looks like he'll stay all day and his jumping is solid enough. He IS very, very lazy but the national is a long old race...
since exchanges came to the fore pricing is so tight that ricks in the market are very rare.
A Mr Rubio left a message for you
Eh?
I mean his exchange price was obviously daft for ages. Emotion has a lot of influence.
Well every time someone places a bet there's a layer, value is about opinion as much as probability. A long price doesn't equate to value.
btw who is Rubio?
Well his father was a bartender, and his mother was a maid.
The failure of his campaign has clearly deeply affected him on a personal level. Quite possibly because he put his parents and his personal story right at the heart of it.
I think he genuinely thought that was enough.
Life's a bitch .... if his father was a maid and his mother a bartender he's have been a POTUS cert ....
Just laid Bush at 80 and backed Rubio at 730. And made net money out of it.
Funny old world.
lol
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further . Aintree is the only place that is further...
I am in the market for good National bet tips :-)
The only mark against him is his age, 7 is quite young for a national horse. But he looks like he'll stay all day and his jumping is solid enough. He IS very, very lazy but the national is a long old race...
Well done her! I'm eating my words, I thought she'd be jumped off at the first fence, but she dropped him out, hunted round the back and ran on very respectably.
Pacha Du Polda would have won that with a better jockey, flew up the hill.
Well maybe but it's an amateurs' race, even though a Cheltenham Foxhunters' amateur is not the same as a Ludlow amateur.
For her first ride round Cheltenham she did amazingly. Not a danger to anyone, not embarrassing herself, not anything apart from applying all the lessons she has learned and doing it very nicely.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.
In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.
In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.
In fairness to Cameron, I'm pretty sure that Heidi Allen isn't a Cameroon. She's well to the left of that.
An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing. I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing. I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out. That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out. That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out. That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
"States where Rubio's delegates can or will be reallocated to another candidate:
Kentucky, Alaska, Nevada
In a small handful of states where Rubio has picked up delegates, the states' rules allow for those delegates to be reallocated to other candidates ahead of the convention (all in different ways, of course).
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
In Alaska, when a candidate leaves the race his or her delegates are simply proportionally redistributed to the remaining candidates. In the case of this year's caucuses, Cruz earned 12 delegates, Trump earned 11 and Rubio earned 5; Rubio's will be redistributed to Cruz and Trump.
And in Nevada, the withdrawing candidate has three options (in this case, Rubio has 7): the bound delegates can be kept; or those delegates can be released to vote for whichever candidate they like; or at the state convention, the delegates to be proportionally re-allocated to the remaining candidates."
Looks like the Rubio's Alaska and Nevada delegates have been reallocated to Trump and Cruz now that he has dropped out. That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
An EU source told the BBC up to 72,000 Syrian migrants living in Turkey would be settled in the EU under the agreement.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing. I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
Sorry, what's your complaint? That the EU is allowing 72,000 in, and that is too many? That the figure they'll be letting in under the scheme is higher? That the scheme should not be done because some will try to get in illegally?
O/T Democracy in action. "One survivor of the Bataclan massacre told of how a group 40 barricaded themselves in a tiny room for three hours, and were only saved from the gunmen thanks to the result of a vote, that was only won by a narrow majority."
Comments
The Hill
Rubio blames media for killing his campaign: https://t.co/XxVF4Ijl3p https://t.co/74TIfkNlDo
What the hell have we learnt from the Aussie coach,how not to bowl in limited overs ;-)
Lovely cartoon, found in my attic, by the great John Minnion, for New Statesman just after 1983 election I think https://t.co/PsJXWNvYKX
Mishandling the Turkey issue could be a serious event.
I tipped and backed them to win.
Clive "BBC IS RACIST" Lewis is a moron....studied economics at the University of Bradford...need we say more?
Wasn't Kasich kicked off the ballot in Penn?
England going about as well as your nags, TSE
http://corporateeurope.org/power-lobbies/2016/03/leak-shows-commission-giving-inside-information-car-lobby-new-emissions-tests
'While this was news to the general public, the European Commission had known manufacturers were vastly exceeding limits back in 2011...'
conversationsport anywaySamoa (former Western Samoa) is an independent nation
Crazily short price.
btw who is Rubio?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-35842408
Been sending off ARCs (advanced review copies) to reviewers. I am not remotely nervous. Ahem.
F1: my pre-qualifying ramble is here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html
Not sure why, but I've got a feeling Raikkonen won't finish. Also, don't forget the McLaren has typically done better in Australia than elsewhere.
Still say the price was too short - Cue card fell. Don Poli needed another mile
In July 1997 the Constitution was amended to change the country's name from Western Samoa to Samoa (officially the "Independent State of Samoa").[43] Western Samoa had been known simply as Samoa in the United Nations since joining the organization in 1976. The neighbouring U.S. territory of American Samoa protested the move, feeling that the change diminished its own Samoan identity. American Samoans still use the terms Western Samoa and Western Samoans.[44]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Samoa
Rubio - Not POTUS .. Not GOP Nominee .. Not a politician soon ....
Is he tipping the Trumpster next? ....
For reasons I've given before, I fear the IEP project is going to be a bit of a disaster for taxpayer and passengers alike.
A bit of misinformation from Virgin there. Then again, Branson thinks train drivers 'steer' trains ....
Funny old world.
Just had a grand national bet myself, Don Poli @ 25s (Betvictor). Too one paced in the gold cup, needs further
I think he genuinely thought that was enough.
I can't tell you how upset I am by that...
If I were a whip, and this were the mid-1990s, I'd have her top of the defection watchlist.
If I were in the South Cambridgeshire Conservative Association I wouldn't be reselecting her for the new boundaries.
update: Reports it's Abdeslam
I can detect a single centre-right thing about her.
She should be in the Labour Party.
Very impressed well done Ms Pendleton.
Remain 41%
Leave 40%
For her first ride round Cheltenham she did amazingly. Not a danger to anyone, not embarrassing herself, not anything apart from applying all the lessons she has learned and doing it very nicely.
Reselections have largely been seen through the Chairman Corbyn prism, but it could be a means for Conservative associations to axe Cameroons and try to bolster the right of the party's presence in Parliament.
A double on the first and the Gold Cup
Winner in the 2nd (thanks to Pricewise)
Winner in the last (2/1 on Victoria Pendleton finishing)
and still 2 races to go.
The Bookies have lost £60m, and I have collected some of it for a change
Took Skybet to the cleaners on wednesday anyway so overall a very good festival (Entirely due to Sprinter Sacre)
https://amp.twimg.com/v/a1ab77c2-6c07-4bb0-8da7-d6eeec5dbf36
Trump gains in the forecast, looks like Kasich will finish third in delegates.
Add in the previous comments about Rubio's existing delegates being re-allocated, and Trump is surely over the line?
Still available at 1.41 on BF.
Yeh and how many other thousands above that number that these Lords of ours have left out of the reconing.
I bet that Macedonia, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia are battening down the hatches.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35840272
Migrant crisis: Turkey and EU reach deal on returns
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3498193/Police-investigating-suspicious-package-sent-Eric-Trump-s-luxury-apartment.html
That's 9 extra delegates for Trump I think, that puts him at 20 above 1237 in my forecast.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
"States where Rubio's delegates can or will be reallocated to another candidate:
Kentucky, Alaska, Nevada
In a small handful of states where Rubio has picked up delegates, the states' rules allow for those delegates to be reallocated to other candidates ahead of the convention (all in different ways, of course).
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
In Alaska, when a candidate leaves the race his or her delegates are simply proportionally redistributed to the remaining candidates. In the case of this year's caucuses, Cruz earned 12 delegates, Trump earned 11 and Rubio earned 5; Rubio's will be redistributed to Cruz and Trump.
And in Nevada, the withdrawing candidate has three options (in this case, Rubio has 7): the bound delegates can be kept; or those delegates can be released to vote for whichever candidate they like; or at the state convention, the delegates to be proportionally re-allocated to the remaining candidates."
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
And it looks good for Trump in Kentucky.
SS and FBI go after Anonymous
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/secret-service-trump-anonymous-hack-220963
"One survivor of the Bataclan massacre told of how a group 40 barricaded themselves in a tiny room for three hours, and were only saved from the gunmen thanks to the result of a vote, that was only won by a narrow majority."
http://www.thelocal.fr/20160318/how-a-show-of-hands-saved-40-from-bataclan-killers