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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Referendum polling and betting update

Note that the table now includes polls where the actual 16 word ballot referendum question is not the one that is put. Ipsos-MORI has been using split samples to ask two questions each month. The first with its long-term question ad the second with the actual wording on the ballot. The latter produces better results to REMAIN.

Read the full story here

Roger

'Leave' and the Tories are knackered-'Stay' and Labour remain unelectable

Tough choice.

and second first

Philip_Thompson

There's been a lot of analysis here about the fact that Leave has a great lead with the elderly who have a higher turnout. But we shouldn't forget that Remain have a great lead with the ABC1 voters who also have a much higher turnout. I suspect these two factors will largely cancel each other out then.

Even if 75% of the elderly turnout that means that 1 in 4 don't. Who those one in four are could make all the difference.

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

James Kirkup
Osborne's disability cuts are the difference between the red and yellow lines here. NB: both go up.
(OBR data) https://t.co/7FVxpTYvnD

When a cut isn't a cut, rather a reduction on the originally planned increase...What it shows is that in politics so often it isn't about what you do, rather how you present them and also how you present them year to year. One thing Gordo was very good at, this kind of crap.

Osborne has made these kind of mistakes before. Remember all the stuff "about back to Wigan Pier", one tiny tweak in his made up figures and that attack would never have happened. He could have spun it as just back to New Labour days. Especially when everybody knew the size of cuts he was proposing were never going to happen anyway.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Thompson, I'd guess pensioners outnumber ABC1s, though (there'll be some overlap, of course).

CD13

I see the Welsh RU are embarrassing themselves by asking why Joe Marler wasn't disciplined for calling Lee a "gypsy boy". The old Pontypool front row will be squirming in embarrassment too. The player wasn't "offended" at all.

We could always 'no platform' the English props - tell the second row not to push. Or give the Welsh props a 'safe space."

When I propped, I'd take "gypsy" as a compliment. And even Leonard Cohen sang "I used to think I was some sort of gypsy boy".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZI6EdnvH-8

First they came for Elvis Costello, and now poor old Lennie.

As long as they don't eye-gouge or bag-grab, leave them alone. As Brian Moore put it ... "Only the front row know what goes on, and they lie."

Either it's the Welsh being bad losers, or more likely, it's all the fault of those Remain voters. Mr Meeks, take this as a warning.

Morris_Dancer

F1: my pre-qualifying ramble is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/australia-pre-qualifying.html

FrancisUrquhart

CD13 said:

I see the Welsh RU are embarrassing themselves by asking why Joe Marler wasn't disciplined for calling Lee a "gypsy boy". The old Pontypool front row will be squirming in embarrassment too. The player wasn't "offended" at all.

We could always 'no platform' the English props - tell the second row not to push. Or give the Welsh props a 'safe space."

My my my Delilah
Why why why Delilah

TOPPING

fpt re GO's "dip".

I think the perception is, to the extent that anyone apart from PB notices, that the main factors and aggregates (jobs, investment, inflation, interest rates) are doing boringly well.

Now, you and I may know that GO hasn't cut the deficit as much as he should have, nor reduced spending as much as we would like but that is the exquisite dilemma for Lab, as indeed it has been since 2010:

Either blame GO for not cutting spending fast enough, or blame him for cutting too much. For the former, you are therefore saying Lab wants harsher austerity, while for the latter we know that the voting public disagrees.

My perception (rose-tinted goggles on) is that the general feeling is that we are fine, productivity down a bit, growth forecasts down a bit but generally all is OK. OK enough at least to have a bit of fun at the margin with CGT, sugar tax, etc.

Lab's central problem is that they still don't have a credible alternative narrative and even John McD is now preaching fiscal credibility.

Morris_Dancer

I wonder where the WRU stands on sheep-shagging.

scotslass

All sorts of alarm bells from Yougov for the Tories.

This is already Osbourne's second worst regarded Budget - the heir apparent is no longer apparent

Tories behind AFTER YouGov adjustment.

Tories behind despite Labour being untrusted on economy (and everything else)

Scots Tories falling to 15 - vastly overated Davidson about to pay the price for hubris and Tory divisions. SNP continue to prosper.

Little of this is due to UKIP rise and therefore less to come back

None of the underlying issues causing this problem are resolved. In fact things can only get worse.

Razedabode

Can we safely assume Osborne has officially blown his leadership chances. How he can consistently make so many mistakes and still be in his job is beyond me.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Lass, jein. If the polling makes it harder for Osborne to become Conservative leader, that's a gain for the blues.

Mr. Abode, no, but he certainly hasn't helped them.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

You Gov asking questions on the Sugar Tax this morning.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

I wonder where the WRU stands on sheep-shagging.

The reason the Welsh are so good at rugby is that they spend most of their time chasing a white thing, trying to score with it.

*Innocent Face*

SimonStClare

Over the past couple of weeks, the polls appear to have moved a tad back in favour of Remain - All part of the Grassroots Out (GO) master plan I guess..?

glw

FrancisUrquhart said:

Osborne has made these kind of mistakes before. Remember all the stuff "about back to Wigan Pier", one tiny tweak in his made up figures and that attack would never have happened. He could have spun it as just back to New Labour days. Especially when everybody knew the size of cuts he was proposing were never going to happen anyway.

Child benefit caps were another example. Loads of BS in the press about "hard working families being hit", but it only affected the top quintile of incomes; people who are well off even if they don't see themselves that way.

Osborne and the Treasury have done a good job on the whole, we were borrowing £180 billion a year not long ago, but they either make silly mistakes or let their opponents frame the story in a negative way. They should have been much more careful about the changes there are making to PIP.

MikeK

FPT
@David_Herson

The reality of the situation, David, is that Turkey under Erdogan and the AK Party are playing a very dangerous game of supporting all parties to the Syrian conflict at different times and is even supporting ISIS in whatever guise you wish to call them.

1. The repatriation of migrants to Turkey from Greece will not work, especially from a Greece that is slowly falling to pieces and cannot stop anyone from entering their space, legal or not.

2. To give 77 million Turks the right of borderless travel in the EU from June will let open the floodgates with many of these same Turks wanting to claim asylum themselves.

3. Any monies given to Turkey as part of any deal. will only make the AK party more arrogant and intransigent, whilst lining their own pockets. Thanks EU!

4. The EU is largely to blame for the migrant crisis themselves, through the auspices of Merkel and Germany.

watford30

Morris_Dancer said:

I wonder where the WRU stands on sheep-shagging.

It's fine, as long as you send Flossie a nice bunch of daffodils afterwards.

glw

scotslass said:

None of the underlying issues causing this problem are resolved. In fact things can only get worse.

Things are very fixable, and the Tories have plenty of time.

matt

Morris_Dancer said:

I wonder where the WRU stands on sheep-shagging.

Generally at the opposite end to the head.

Luckyguy1983

MikeK said:

FPT
@David_Herson

The reality of the situation, David, is that Turkey under Erdogan and the AK Party are playing a very dangerous game of supporting all parties to the Syrian conflict at different times and is even supporting ISIS in whatever guise you wish to call them.

1. The repatriation of migrants to Turkey from Greece will not work, especially from a Greece that is slowly falling to pieces and cannot stop anyone from entering their space, legal or not.

2. To give 77 million Turks the right of borderless travel in the EU from June will let open the floodgates with many of these same Turks wanting to claim asylum themselves.

3. Any monies given to Turkey as part of any deal. will only make the AK party more arrogant and intransigent, whilst lining their own pockets. Thanks EU!

4. The EU is largely to blame for the migrant crisis themselves, through the auspices of Merkel and Germany.

Quite right.

Morris_Dancer

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

JosiasJessop

MikeK said:

FPT
@David_Herson

The reality of the situation, David, is that Turkey under Erdogan and the AK Party are playing a very dangerous game of supporting all parties to the Syrian conflict at different times and is even supporting ISIS in whatever guise you wish to call them.

1. The repatriation of migrants to Turkey from Greece will not work, especially from a Greece that is slowly falling to pieces and cannot stop anyone from entering their space, legal or not.

2. To give 77 million Turks the right of borderless travel in the EU from June will let open the floodgates with many of these same Turks wanting to claim asylum themselves.

3. Any monies given to Turkey as part of any deal. will only make the AK party more arrogant and intransigent, whilst lining their own pockets. Thanks EU!

4. The EU is largely to blame for the migrant crisis themselves, through the auspices of Merkel and Germany.

That's not the reality of the situation.

JosiasJessop

Luckyguy1983 said:

MikeK said:

FPT
@David_Herson

The reality of the situation, David, is that Turkey under Erdogan and the AK Party are playing a very dangerous game of supporting all parties to the Syrian conflict at different times and is even supporting ISIS in whatever guise you wish to call them.

1. The repatriation of migrants to Turkey from Greece will not work, especially from a Greece that is slowly falling to pieces and cannot stop anyone from entering their space, legal or not.

2. To give 77 million Turks the right of borderless travel in the EU from June will let open the floodgates with many of these same Turks wanting to claim asylum themselves.

3. Any monies given to Turkey as part of any deal. will only make the AK party more arrogant and intransigent, whilst lining their own pockets. Thanks EU!

4. The EU is largely to blame for the migrant crisis themselves, through the auspices of Merkel and Germany.

Quite right.

Quite wrong.

Plato_Says

Whomever is leading their press operation needs another job.

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Osborne has made these kind of mistakes before. Remember all the stuff "about back to Wigan Pier", one tiny tweak in his made up figures and that attack would never have happened. He could have spun it as just back to New Labour days. Especially when everybody knew the size of cuts he was proposing were never going to happen anyway.

Child benefit caps were another example. Loads of BS in the press about "hard working families being hit", but it only affected the top quintile of incomes; people who are well off even if they don't see themselves that way.

Osborne and the Treasury have done a good job on the whole, we were borrowing £180 billion a year not long ago, but they either make silly mistakes or let their opponents frame the story in a negative way. They should have been much more careful about the changes there are making to PIP.

Plato_Says

Depends on the kitty. Mine can do both.

Morris_Dancer said:

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

Philip_Thompson

Razedabode said:

Can we safely assume Osborne has officially blown his leadership chances. How he can consistently make so many mistakes and still be in his job is beyond me.

Because cutting real terms spending year after year is completely unprecedented in British politics. I dare say that anyone attempting that would make the occasional "mistake". If you sacked them all you'd have a continual revolving door like Blair's Home Office malarkey.

TheScreamingEagles

TSE's Cheltenham Glue Factory Watch/Contribute to Billy Hills profits list

13:30: Frodon

14:10: Dicosimo

14:50: Open Eagle

15:30: O'Faolains Boy

16:10: Dark Lober

16:50: Label Des Obeaux

17:30: Dresden and Surf & Turf

richardDodd

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

williamglenn

Morris_Dancer said:

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

Mine used to look suspicious and tentatively approach the food as if it might be booby trapped.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

TSE's Cheltenham Glue Factory Watch/Contribute to Billy Hills profits list

13:30: Frodon

14:10: Dicosimo

14:50: Open Eagle

15:30: O'Faolains Boy

16:10: Dark Lober

16:50: Label Des Obeaux

17:30: Dresden and Surf & Turf

All 28s or longer !

I guess only 1 needs to hose up. Are you each way or win ?

JosiasJessop

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

"a great danger" ?

In what way?

CD13

Mr Urquhart,

"My my my Delilah."

A Stoke season ticket holder assures me they don't sing the word "knife" as they are 'nice' football fans,

So they must sing ... "I felt the bleep-bleep in my hand and she laughed no more."

They must be Donald Trump supporters.

Mr Dancer ... exactly.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TSE's Cheltenham Glue Factory Watch/Contribute to Billy Hills profits list

13:30: Frodon

14:10: Dicosimo

14:50: Open Eagle

15:30: O'Faolains Boy

16:10: Dark Lober

16:50: Label Des Obeaux

17:30: Dresden and Surf & Turf

All 28s or longer !

I guess only 1 needs to hose up. Are you each way or win ?

A tenner outright, and a tenner each way.

CarlottaVance

JosiasJessop said:

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

"a great danger" ?

In what way?

Young, healthy educated and productive?

Lucian_Fletcher

Congratulations to Mr Herdson!

Trying to hide in a cafe to prepare for a job interview next week and work out whether and where I can watch the Gold Cup...

philiph

Plato_Says said:

Depends on the kitty. Mine can do both.

Morris_Dancer said:

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

Isn't there a gender difference?

I thought a Tom was likely to consume and a female to purr and eat, showing multitasking capabilities.

LondonBob

Surely we would be better off giving Greece money to hire some border guards and build a bloody great big wall. It could be construed as another bailout/stimulus package. It would still be cheaper than the burden of having all these unassimilable immigrants who cost the public purse so much.

Erdogan will just continue to screw us over if we keep on letting him get away with it.

williamglenn

Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.

If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.

Sean_F

Philip_Thompson said:

There's been a lot of analysis here about the fact that Leave has a great lead with the elderly who have a higher turnout. But we shouldn't forget that Remain have a great lead with the ABC1 voters who also have a much higher turnout. I suspect these two factors will largely cancel each other out then.

Even if 75% of the elderly turnout that means that 1 in 4 don't. Who those one in four are could make all the difference.

It's clear that Leave voters score higher on certainty to vote than Remain voters. Perhaps it's just that the issue matters more to them, rather than down to demographic factors.

Plato_Says

I've never seen one myself after dozens of kitties.

philiph said:

Plato_Says said:

Depends on the kitty. Mine can do both.

Morris_Dancer said:

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

Isn't there a gender difference?

I thought a Tom was likely to consume and a female to purr and eat, showing multitasking capabilities.

bigjohnowls

The Tories are revolting!!!

I see Andrew Percy reckons there is zero chance of getting the £4.4Bn cut to PIP through.

Sean_F

scotslass said:

All sorts of alarm bells from Yougov for the Tories.

This is already Osbourne's second worst regarded Budget - the heir apparent is no longer apparent

Tories behind AFTER YouGov adjustment.

Tories behind despite Labour being untrusted on economy (and everything else)

Scots Tories falling to 15 - vastly overated Davidson about to pay the price for hubris and Tory divisions. SNP continue to prosper.

Little of this is due to UKIP rise and therefore less to come back

None of the underlying issues causing this problem are resolved. In fact things can only get worse.

UKIP are on 16% in this poll, up 3% on the GE. If there were any serious danger of Corbyn getting in, UKIP voters in marginal seats would vote Conservative to keep him out.

LondonBob

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/710626092114120708

Republicans continue to rally around Trump as his favourables surge.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/anti-trump-forces-contemplate-the-end-220953

Union members heart Trump.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-working-class-unions_us_56ead51fe4b03a640a69c58d?69io1or

HRC's man problem.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/18/us/politics/as-hillary-clinton-sweeps-states-one-group-resists-white-men.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Plato_Says

OT When was the last time anyone bought dried mashed potatoes? I'd forgotten it exists until seeing it used in an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.

bigjohnowls

Just seen Nikki Morgans performance on QT

Oh dear looking like another talented leadership challenger is actually as effective as Liz Kendall

surbiton

surbiton said:

MikeK said:

david_herdson said:

MikeK said:

david_herdson said:

MikeK said:

Good morning.
More importantly this morning, the EU is prepared to lick Turkeys bum on the migrant deal, according to the BBC and the PM of that great dutchy, Luxembourg.

Migrant crisis: EU agrees joint position to put to Turkey

.

Do you not think it would be quite a good idea to try to do a deal with Turkey re the migrants?

No. Turkey, if allowed any grace within the EU will use all it's power under Erdogan to try and islamise great parts of the EU.

.

1. The repatriation of migrants to Turkey from Greece will not work, especially from a Greece that is slowly falling to pieces and cannot stop anyone from entering their space, legal or not.

2. To give 77 million Turks the right of borderless travel in the EU from June will let open the floodgates with many of these same Turks wanting to claim asylum themselves.

3. Any monies given to Turkey as part of any deal. will only make the AK party more arrogant and intransigent, whilst lining their own pockets. Thanks EU!

4. The EU is largely to blame for the migrant crisis themselves, through the auspices of Merkel and Germany.

Merkel did not create the refugees. What you are saying is that if 3m refugees stayed in Turkey, that would be fine. Blissful ignorance.

We destabilised that part of the world big time starting 2003. We did not know how to handle the situation post-Saddam. The same goes for Libya. Once the winter is finally over boat loads will be coming over to Italy. More people will die.

The only way the situation could have been averted was not to side with a bunch of rag bag terrorists in the west of Syria who just pledged they were democratic and pro Western. Remember Chalabi in Iraq. I don't know why we fall for these muppets.

Assad is a dictator. No worse than Al-Sisi who is now our friend. Assad is actually a liberal person [ a minority in his own country - so he has to be nice to other minorities ] and definitely could have been on our side against ISIS. Ironically, just like Saddam was. [ In fact, if Saddam was there there would have been no ISIS ].But we wanted to be the nice guys without knowing what the hell we were doing.

Now we have a 3m population city bombed out. Where do you think they will go ? They are not going to live in tents for the rest of their lives. WE are now creating a breeding ground for the next batch of terrorists - different terrorists.

Why should Turkey just accept these refugees ? They have enough problems of their own.

Morris_Dancer

Thanks, Miss Plato.

Mr. Glenn, maybe you're a suspect sort of chap?

Good luck, Mr. Fletcher.

FrancisUrquhart

CD13 said:

Mr Urquhart,

"My my my Delilah."

A Stoke season ticket holder assures me they don't sing the word "knife" as they are 'nice' football fans,

So they must sing ... "I felt the bleep-bleep in my hand and she laughed no more."

They must be Donald Trump supporters.

Mr Dancer ... exactly.

They also have another charming ditty...

When I was just a little boy,
I asked my mother what should I be,
Vale or shall I be Stoke,
this is what she said to me,
go wash your mouth with soap,
go fetch your fathers gun and shoot the vale scum,

chestnut

The whole system of sickness and disability benefits is a mess. It has been for many years and needs an absolute rethink. It was designed around the same time as the CSA.

bigjohnowls

Mr Dancer any idea of the time of GP qualifying tomorrow?

NorfolkTilIDie

LondonBob said:

Surely we would be better off giving Greece money to hire some border guards and build a bloody great big wall. It could be construed as another bailout/stimulus package. It would still be cheaper than the burden of having all these unassimilable immigrants who cost the public purse so much.

Erdogan will just continue to screw us over if we keep on letting him get away with it.

You realise they're coming by sea, right??

surbiton

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Only the 15th largest economy in the world. Why are they dangerous ? If they were, why are they in Nato ? Presumably, US Military in Turkey carry nuclear weapons.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Owls, I think it starts at 6am (my understanding the new format is still one hour long).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

FrancisUrquhart

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

Plato_Says

The C5 series on benefits cheats was rife with fake disability claims, bent doctors and professional document forgers.

chestnut said:

The whole system of sickness and disability benefits is a mess. It has been for many years and needs an absolute rethink. It was designed around the same time as the CSA.

bigjohnowls

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, I think it starts at 6am (my understanding the new format is still one hour long).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

NMWNBPM!!

Indigo

Morris_Dancer said:

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

She is a legend in her own mind

LondonBob

NorfolkTilIDie said:

LondonBob said:

Surely we would be better off giving Greece money to hire some border guards and build a bloody great big wall. It could be construed as another bailout/stimulus package. It would still be cheaper than the burden of having all these unassimilable immigrants who cost the public purse so much.

Erdogan will just continue to screw us over if we keep on letting him get away with it.

You realise they're coming by sea, right??

That big beautiful wall Bulgaria has needs to continue on down through Greece to be really effective.

FrancisUrquhart

Sri Lanka fast bowler Lasith Malinga has been ruled out of the remainder of the World Twenty20 after failing to recover from a knee injury.

http://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/35842305

Shame...love watching the fatty slinger firing in those yorkers while looking like a million miles from your robot-esque professional cricketer today.

dugarbandier

FrancisUrquhart said:

CD13 said:

Mr Urquhart,

"My my my Delilah."

A Stoke season ticket holder assures me they don't sing the word "knife" as they are 'nice' football fans,

So they must sing ... "I felt the bleep-bleep in my hand and she laughed no more."

They must be Donald Trump supporters.

Mr Dancer ... exactly.

They also have another charming ditty...

When I was just a little boy,
I asked my mother what should I be,
Vale or shall I be Stoke,
this is what she said to me,
go wash your mouth with soap,
go fetch your fathers gun and shoot the vale scum,

i think the canonical version is "I put my dick in her hand, and she laughed no more" still not exactly right on, however. the vale one is accurate, but i never sang that. many of my mates are vale, after all. stoke fans no worse or better than others i think

Philip_Thompson

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There's been a lot of analysis here about the fact that Leave has a great lead with the elderly who have a higher turnout. But we shouldn't forget that Remain have a great lead with the ABC1 voters who also have a much higher turnout. I suspect these two factors will largely cancel each other out then.

Even if 75% of the elderly turnout that means that 1 in 4 don't. Who those one in four are could make all the difference.

It's clear that Leave voters score higher on certainty to vote than Remain voters. Perhaps it's just that the issue matters more to them, rather than down to demographic factors.

I agree I'm just drilling down to the meta data. Turnout is often lower than those self reporting as likely to turn out. So rather than going based solely on self reports we know two things: the elderly have higher turnout and ABC1s do too.

NorfolkTilIDie

LondonBob said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

LondonBob said:

Surely we would be better off giving Greece money to hire some border guards and build a bloody great big wall. It could be construed as another bailout/stimulus package. It would still be cheaper than the burden of having all these unassimilable immigrants who cost the public purse so much.

Erdogan will just continue to screw us over if we keep on letting him get away with it.

You realise they're coming by sea, right??

That big beautiful wall Bulgaria has needs to continue on down through Greece to be really effective.

Where abouts through Greece?? Are you suggesting passports should be needed to pass from one part of Greece to another??

Plato_Says

His claims for his children were obviously bent, I'm most disappointed in him.

It wasn't a mistake, it was deceitful.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

bigjohnowls

Wow Australia looking very impressive in the ICC T20

CarlottaVance

scotslass said:

SNP continue to prosper.

As part of the United Kingdom, which is, I suspect, the bigger picture....

But good to see Sturgeon is starting to argue that if Scots want free stuff they should pay for it.......isn't that a nice change?

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TSE's Cheltenham Glue Factory Watch/Contribute to Billy Hills profits list

13:30: Frodon

14:10: Dicosimo

14:50: Open Eagle

15:30: O'Faolains Boy

16:10: Dark Lober

16:50: Label Des Obeaux

17:30: Dresden and Surf & Turf

All 28s or longer !

I guess only 1 needs to hose up. Are you each way or win ?

A tenner outright, and a tenner each way.

My sole bet for the day is £10 @ 10-1 on Don Poli

williamglenn

LondonBob said:

Union members heart Trump.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-working-class-unions_us_56ead51fe4b03a640a69c58d?69io1or

Jim Kessler, senior vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, argued that Trump was an asymmetrical challenge for the party.

“He’s unlike a candidate like [Sen. Ted] Cruz, in which you can predict with assuredness where he will play or fall flat. Trump is a variable who has exceeded expectations,” Kessler said. “Until he stops exceeding expectations, I will worry.”

Sounds like the Democrats are as clueless about how to run against Trump as the GOP establishment were.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

Jeremy Corbyn has been very fortunate in the calibre of his high-profile opponents...

LondonBob

surbiton said:

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Only the 15th largest economy in the world. Why are they dangerous ? If they were, why are they in Nato ? Presumably, US Military in Turkey carry nuclear weapons.

Why indeed? Why does the cold war relic NATO still exist? Why is it ever expanding?

Reminds me of when we destroyed our own fishing industry because NATO wanted to keep Iceland onside. Now Europe must destroy itself because NATO wants to keep Turkey onside. Time we left NATO and looked after our own interests, NATO's geopolitical games have been an expensive burden for us to bear.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/whos-afraid-of-sibel-edmonds/

NATO and Turkey is an unhealthy relationship.

bigjohnowls

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, I think it starts at 6am (my understanding the new format is still one hour long).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

Thanks Mr Dancer. I am off to London tomorrow but should be able to catch that before I go.

Pulpstar

I'm in agreement with @bigjohnowls and will project, with 100% confidence:

NMWNBPM

richardDodd

Surbiton..maybe you should wander off and try to work out why a possible influx of many millions of Muslims from Turkey into Europe might just pose a danger to our way of life..not too difficult, going on recent evidence..

LondonBob

Great to see Corbyn's Labour polling so well, no surprise not as unpopular as the shrieking heads assured us he would be.

As for Osborne, no hope, no way.

JosiasJessop

williamglenn said:

Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.

If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.

My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.

As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.

I'd like to ask a question of people who have looked unto it further than me (perhaps only Mr Tyndall on here): on the whole, is it good for a third-world or underdeveloped country to try to meet many of the requirements held in the acquis communautaire ?

(This is not to say a country would need to join the EU, or that all of the acquis are applicable if you are not going to join; just that some of them, such as Statistics, financial control and public procurement might well help stop some of the abuses seen in developing countries).

chestnut

Plato_Says said:

The C5 series on benefits cheats was rife with fake disability claims, bent doctors and professional document forgers.

The whole system is far too subjective, and many of the reforms do nothing to alter that.

I can see what IDS is trying to do and his motives are sound - there are a lot of people in the system who have limitations to their capability but who are not incapable - but they really should re-model the whole thing from start to finish.

Payments and compliance should be more akin to JSA and fact based evidence and testing should support payment enhancements, rather than medical boarding.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Indigo, self-perception can be difficult. That said, she still seems to be a million miles wrong.

Edited extra bit, np, Mr. Owls.

FrancisUrquhart

LondonBob said:

Great to see Corbyn's Labour polling so well, no surprise not as unpopular as the shrieking heads assured us he would be.

As for Osborne, no hope, no way.

Putin must be pissing himself with the thought that the UK could replace Downton Dave with Jadahi Jez.

MarqueeMark

bigjohnowls said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, I think it starts at 6am (my understanding the new format is still one hour long).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

NMWNBPM!!

Someone mentioned on an earlier thread how Nicky Morgan has the look of a permanently surprised owl. Maybe it is her hair style, but to me she has the look more of a convent girl who has stumbled into a seventies porno movie...

...with hilarious consequences!

FrancisUrquhart

chestnut said:

Plato_Says said:

The C5 series on benefits cheats was rife with fake disability claims, bent doctors and professional document forgers.

The whole system is far too subjective, and many of the reforms do nothing to alter that.

I can see what IDS is trying to do and his motives are sound - there are a lot of people in the system who have limitations to their capability but who are not incapable - but they really should re-model the whole thing from start to finish.

Payments and compliance should be more akin to JSA and fact based evidence and testing should support payment enhancements, rather than medical boarding.

If the benefits system was a company, you would stop trading and totally reboot it from scratch. However, obviously you can't do that. Nobody would have the system as is, if we were starting afresh.

Roger

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

Point of order; since being expelled from the Labour party for being a c**t it's misleading to describe him as "Labour MP "...

Plato_Says

Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt

NorfolkTilIDie

williamglenn said:

LondonBob said:

Union members heart Trump.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-working-class-unions_us_56ead51fe4b03a640a69c58d?69io1or

Jim Kessler, senior vice president for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, argued that Trump was an asymmetrical challenge for the party.

“He’s unlike a candidate like [Sen. Ted] Cruz, in which you can predict with assuredness where he will play or fall flat. Trump is a variable who has exceeded expectations,” Kessler said. “Until he stops exceeding expectations, I will worry.”

Sounds like the Democrats are as clueless about how to run against Trump as the GOP establishment were.

Just keeping their powder dry. Wait til they point out Trump wants to give a massive tax cut to his fellow super rich, and only breadcrumbs for the working class what supports him.

williamglenn

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.

If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.

My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.

As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.

I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.

watford30

LondonBob said:

surbiton said:

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Only the 15th largest economy in the world. Why are they dangerous ? If they were, why are they in Nato ? Presumably, US Military in Turkey carry nuclear weapons.

Why indeed? Why does the cold war relic NATO still exist? Why is it ever expanding?

Reminds me of when we destroyed our own fishing industry because NATO wanted to keep Iceland onside. Now Europe must destroy itself because NATO wants to keep Turkey onside. Time we left NATO and looked after our own interests, NATO's geopolitical games have been an expensive burden for us to bear.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/whos-afraid-of-sibel-edmonds/

NATO and Turkey is an unhealthy relationship.

Thankfully, NATO still exists because of the threat Russia and it's mafia leadership continue to pose to the rest of us.

'Time we left NATO'

Your motherland isn't a member of NATO, Bobski.

LondonBob

FrancisUrquhart said:

LondonBob said:

Great to see Corbyn's Labour polling so well, no surprise not as unpopular as the shrieking heads assured us he would be.

As for Osborne, no hope, no way.

Putin must be pissing himself with the thought that the UK could replace Downton Dave with Jadahi Jez.

Resident loon 'Francis' continues with his altogether unhealthy obsessions. Monomania.

FrancisUrquhart

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

Point of order; since being expelled from the Labour party for being a c**t it's misleading to describe him as "Labour MP "...

Not expelled Rog...Suspended pending legal action, but you are correct that he has had the whip removed in HoC...nobody gets permanently expelled from the Labour party these days even Anti-Semites.

LondonBob

watford30 said:

LondonBob said:

surbiton said:

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Only the 15th largest economy in the world. Why are they dangerous ? If they were, why are they in Nato ? Presumably, US Military in Turkey carry nuclear weapons.

Why indeed? Why does the cold war relic NATO still exist? Why is it ever expanding?

Reminds me of when we destroyed our own fishing industry because NATO wanted to keep Iceland onside. Now Europe must destroy itself because NATO wants to keep Turkey onside. Time we left NATO and looked after our own interests, NATO's geopolitical games have been an expensive burden for us to bear.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/whos-afraid-of-sibel-edmonds/

NATO and Turkey is an unhealthy relationship.

Thankfully, NATO still exists because of the threat Russia and it's mafia leadership continue to pose to the rest of us.

'Time we left NATO'

Your motherland isn't a member of NATO, Bobski.

Fishing for crazies is easy.

MarkSenior

Final result from ydays by elections
Redcar/Cleveland Hutton Con hold Lib Dems move into 2nd

Con 879 LD 536 Lab 368 UKIP 116 Ind 56

Roger

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Shall we go and stand on the white cliffs of Dover with our crosses?

MarqueeMark

Plato_Says said:

OT When was the last time anyone bought dried mashed potatoes? I'd forgotten it exists until seeing it used in an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.

You can still get Smash.The only reason I know this is the Good Lady Wifi was making a shepherd's pie type thing and had forgotten to get the mashed potato from M&S. One of the guests was coming past the shops and was asked to get the mash. She turned up with Smash....

...with hilarious consequences.

bigjohnowls

MarqueeMark said:

bigjohnowls said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, I think it starts at 6am (my understanding the new format is still one hour long).

Edited extra bit: Mr. Owls (2), I don't believe anyone's ever accused Nicky Morgan of being talented.

NMWNBPM!!

Someone mentioned on an earlier thread how Nicky Morgan has the look of a permanently surprised owl. Maybe it is her hair style, but to me she has the look more of a convent girl who has stumbled into a seventies porno movie...

...with hilarious consequences!

LOL both descriptions seem accurate and last night she would have been happier being either than appearing on QT

LewisDuckworth

Morris_Dancer said:

Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?

In a way that they never do for Whiskas,domestic cats growl and wolf between growls. They will often take the piece into a secure place, such as beneath a table.

AlastairMeeks

Hope springs eternal - I see Jeb Bush was last matched at 75 on Betfair.

watford30

LondonBob said:

watford30 said:

LondonBob said:

surbiton said:

richardDodd said:

FPT...Turkey must never be allowed entry to the EU..Even if the UK leaves,Turkey and its massive Muslim population will still be a great danger to us

Only the 15th largest economy in the world. Why are they dangerous ? If they were, why are they in Nato ? Presumably, US Military in Turkey carry nuclear weapons.

Why indeed? Why does the cold war relic NATO still exist? Why is it ever expanding?

Reminds me of when we destroyed our own fishing industry because NATO wanted to keep Iceland onside. Now Europe must destroy itself because NATO wants to keep Turkey onside. Time we left NATO and looked after our own interests, NATO's geopolitical games have been an expensive burden for us to bear.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/whos-afraid-of-sibel-edmonds/

NATO and Turkey is an unhealthy relationship.

Thankfully, NATO still exists because of the threat Russia and it's mafia leadership continue to pose to the rest of us.

'Time we left NATO'

Your motherland isn't a member of NATO, Bobski.

Fishing for crazies is easy.

Crazy Ivans? Yes, the Royal Navy are very good at it.

chestnut

FrancisUrquhart said:

chestnut said:

Plato_Says said:

The C5 series on benefits cheats was rife with fake disability claims, bent doctors and professional document forgers.

The whole system is far too subjective, and many of the reforms do nothing to alter that.

I can see what IDS is trying to do and his motives are sound - there are a lot of people in the system who have limitations to their capability but who are not incapable - but they really should re-model the whole thing from start to finish.

Payments and compliance should be more akin to JSA and fact based evidence and testing should support payment enhancements, rather than medical boarding.

If the benefits system was a company, you would stop trading and totally reboot it from scratch. However, obviously you can't do that. Nobody would have the system as is, if we were starting afresh.

Nearly half the ESA claim load, which often leads into Personal Independence Payments etc, are sick with mental health or behavioural issues.

SimonStClare

Plato_Says said:

Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt

VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?

LondonBob

FrancisUrquhart said:

Roger said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.

The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208

Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...

Point of order; since being expelled from the Labour party for being a c**t it's misleading to describe him as "Labour MP "...

Not expelled Rog...Suspended pending legal action, but you are correct that he has had the whip removed in HoC...nobody gets permanently expelled from the Labour party these days even Anti-Semites.

Confronting Labour on the issues that really matter to the British people. Perhaps the media could drone on about Corbyn and Putin, that should really finish him!

Never seen such misreading of the issues and principles that matter to the British people.

JosiasJessop

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.

If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.

My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.

As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.

I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.

Exactly. Membership talks are a good way of applying soft pressure on them to get their act together, whilst also being friendly.

But Erdogan ... oh, Erdogan.

(I actually put much of the blame on the pre-Erdogan secularist parties, who were absolutely corrupt and incompetent. Even secularist voters wanted a change, and there was only one other party in the running. Parallels of our own politics?)

richardDodd

Roger .. as a renowned prat you can..it would suit you..