politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Referendum polling and betting update
Comments
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Mr. Duckworth, cheers.
Book I'm writing has a very well-trained (and therefore fictional) giant cat [lynx] as a pet to one of the major female characters. My own knowledge of cats is quite weak, so the answers have been appreciated (and to earlier queries).0 -
I quite agree, medical boarding IMO encourages malingering.
I'm eligible for PIP and it'd be beneficial for me to exaggerate when my review comes up. It's a daft system.chestnut said:
The whole system is far too subjective, and many of the reforms do nothing to alter that.Plato_Says said:The C5 series on benefits cheats was rife with fake disability claims, bent doctors and professional document forgers.
I can see what IDS is trying to do and his motives are sound - there are a lot of people in the system who have limitations to their capability but who are not incapable - but they really should re-model the whole thing from start to finish.
Payments and compliance should be more akin to JSA and fact based evidence and testing should support payment enhancements, rather than medical boarding.0 -
When I was walking (sob, sob), I'd often take a packet or two with me to use. Not particularly for any calorific content, but because many walking foods are highly calorific but not bulky, meaning I'd eat them and feel empty. It's also nice comfort food when you're cold. Early on a trip, I might even have carried the luxury of a can of baked beans and sausages with me. Mix 'em up for some simple, quick and Pocket Rocket (*)-friendly grub.Plato_Says said:OT When was the last time anyone bought dried mashed potatoes? I'd forgotten it exists until seeing it used in an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.
Also, Uncle Ben's two-minute rice was a staple.
We have a couple of packets in the cupboard at home for when we make bubble and squeak. If there isn't quite enough potato left compared to veg, make some Smash,a dd what you need and throw the rest away.
(*) The portable cooker, not the urban definition.
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Golf is a funny game.
Joost Luiten was 7 under through 15 today and now needs to hols a 40ft putt to make the cut.0 -
Now that's a faux pas I'd die from.
My memory of Smash was gritty and dense. Haven't eaten it in 30 years. I confess to buying fresh mashed potatoes as it's a pain to cock about making them/washing up.
Still best evah TV advert
https://youtu.be/uKt-KR1TsRgMarqueeMark said:
You can still get Smash.The only reason I know this is the Good Lady Wifi was making a shepherd's pie type thing and had forgotten to get the mashed potato from M&S. One of the guests was coming past the shops and was asked to get the mash. She turned up with Smash....Plato_Says said:OT When was the last time anyone bought dried mashed potatoes? I'd forgotten it exists until seeing it used in an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.
...with hilarious consequences.0 -
The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining.williamglenn said:
I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.JosiasJessop said:
My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.williamglenn said:Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.
If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.
As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.
Erdogan would not be able to stomach the reforms needed.
And the Cypriots will veto Turkey's membership anyway.
The odds on Turkey joining the EU in the next two decades are well into the three figures.0 -
Mr. 1000, stranger things have happened. That horse, becoming pope. Or Corbyn becoming Labour leader.0
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GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
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Smash is fantastic as a sauce thickener: use it instead of cornflower as (a) it is utterly bland, and (b) it doesn't stick together in lumps.0
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how the other half live *or the 1% or whatever it is these days*MarqueeMark said:forgotten to get the mashed potato from M&S. .
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That sounds a sensible practical use, I'd use noodles or oatmeal myself just for preference.
Bubble and squeak is a favourite of mine.JosiasJessop said:
When I was walking (sob, sob), I'd often take a packet or two with me to use. Not particularly for any calorific content, but because many walking foods are highly calorific but not bulky, meaning I'd eat them and feel empty. It's also nice comfort food when you're cold. Early on a trip, I might even have carried the luxury of a can of baked beans and sausages with me. Mix 'em up for some simple, quick and Pocket Rocket (*)-friendly grub.Plato_Says said:OT When was the last time anyone bought dried mashed potatoes? I'd forgotten it exists until seeing it used in an episode of Kitchen Nightmares.
Also, Uncle Ben's two-minute rice was a staple.
We have a couple of packets in the cupboard at home for when we make bubble and squeak. If there isn't quite enough potato left compared to veg, make some Smash,a dd what you need and throw the rest away.
(*) The portable cooker, not the urban definition.0 -
Just dropping by to add my congratulations to Messrs. Fletcher & Herdson.0
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Not any longer... the Kiwi's have really pulled this back.bigjohnowls said:Wow Australia looking very impressive in the ICC T20
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Female cats are dominant most often in a group.
Dominant cats take higher vantage points, feed first and set the whole tone. Calm Assertive would be their attitude. Until messed with, then they'll break your arm.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Duckworth, cheers.
Book I'm writing has a very well-trained (and therefore fictional) giant cat [lynx] as a pet to one of the major female characters. My own knowledge of cats is quite weak, so the answers have been appreciated (and to earlier queries).0 -
"The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining."rcs1000 said:
The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining.williamglenn said:
I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.JosiasJessop said:
My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.williamglenn said:Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.
If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.
As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.
Erdogan would not be able to stomach the reforms needed.
And the Cypriots will veto Turkey's membership anyway.
The odds on Turkey joining the EU in the next two decades are well into the three figures.
Not quite 'overwhelmingly' against:
http://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2015/08/03/turkish-people-indecisive-over-eu-membership-survey-reveals
The fact that's in the Sabah is interesting in itself, given that paper's pro-AKP editorial stance.
Agree with the rest.0 -
Miss Plato, just a solitary cat in this case. It's quite handy for the lady to have her, as the owner tends not to be personally violent but having a well-trained lynx prowling around adds an element of danger.0
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Tip, just pop a teaspoon of cornflour in an egg cup and add a little water. It won't clump or go lumpy when you stir it in. Ditto Bisto powder if anyone uses that.rcs1000 said:
Smash is fantastic as a sauce thickener: use it instead of cornflower as (a) it is utterly bland, and (b) it doesn't stick together in lumps.
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Assuming your lynx sees her as more dominant, the same applies - if not, she'll steal her dinner, bed space, pillow, ignore and generally be in charge
Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, just a solitary cat in this case. It's quite handy for the lady to have her, as the owner tends not to be personally violent but having a well-trained lynx prowling around adds an element of danger.
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US Election 2016: Would President Trump be a risk to global security?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35836099
Apparently Trump as president is nearly as dangerous as Putin or us leaving the EU, sorry "fragmentation of the EU"....no fear mongering going on there.0 -
Miss Plato, Princess Karena is definitely in charge.0
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As an aside, the French constitution was changed to require a referendum on Turkish accession to the EU. (Technically, it requires a referendum if any country were to join the EU, increasing its population by 5%.)JosiasJessop said:
"The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining."rcs1000 said:
The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining.williamglenn said:
I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.JosiasJessop said:
My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.williamglenn said:Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.
If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.
As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.
Erdogan would not be able to stomach the reforms needed.
And the Cypriots will veto Turkey's membership anyway.
The odds on Turkey joining the EU in the next two decades are well into the three figures.
Not quite 'overwhelmingly' against:
http://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2015/08/03/turkish-people-indecisive-over-eu-membership-survey-reveals
The fact that's in the Sabah is interesting in itself, given that paper's pro-AKP editorial stance.
Agree with the rest.
That's another pretty major hurdle in the way of Turkish membership.0 -
Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)0 -
Borussia Dortmund v Liverpool in the Quarter Finals of the Europa.
Goddamnit, I'm going to try and go to both matches.0 -
Maxwell gone ! Aus in trouble.0
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Nope - it was counting this morning... ;-)Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)0 -
It is not even that as far as I am concerned.Plato_Says said:I quite agree, medical boarding IMO encourages malingering.
It just creates an enormous bureaucracy and a culture of dispute, appeal, review and grievance. It's very much like the CSA in that sense.0 -
Yuck
Sun
Rolf Harris pleads not guilty as disabled alleged victim says he was 'like an octopus' https://t.co/ufDVxJ2wpD https://t.co/XSrIGmjpRD0 -
The "old" anti-Tory understanding coming back.Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)0 -
Didn't know that. Thanks.rcs1000 said:
As an aside, the French constitution was changed to require a referendum on Turkish accession to the EU. (Technically, it requires a referendum if any country were to join the EU, increasing its population by 5%.)JosiasJessop said:
"The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining."rcs1000 said:
The Turks are overwhelmingly against joining.williamglenn said:
I fully agree with you there and that's why the hysteria about Merkel supposedly 'fast-tracking' their membership was misplaced. Meeting the accession chapters will be tough - they've only met one out of thirty-five after nearly two decades. Further membership talks will only provide a forum in which to beat up the Turkish leadership on their lack of commitment to good governance.JosiasJessop said:
My view is that it is good to work towards membership, as the process will help closeness and trade. That does not mean they will become members, though.williamglenn said:Until the EU and Russia can determine what a healthy mutual relationship looks like then entertaining the prospect of Turkish membership looks very premature. Russia should certainly be ahead of Turkey in the queue, and given the unlikelihood of Russia ever joining, or wanting to join, that probably means that Turkey is in the never category.
If you believe in European free movement it's difficult not to see the mutually onerous visa process on both sides as intolerable.
As an example, in order to join a country has to meet almost all of the chapters of the acquis communautaire. Turkey is currently not doing well in this regard after many years, and in some ways is heading backwards - it obviously requires particular censure on press freedom.
Erdogan would not be able to stomach the reforms needed.
And the Cypriots will veto Turkey's membership anyway.
The odds on Turkey joining the EU in the next two decades are well into the three figures.
Not quite 'overwhelmingly' against:
http://www.dailysabah.com/eu-affairs/2015/08/03/turkish-people-indecisive-over-eu-membership-survey-reveals
The fact that's in the Sabah is interesting in itself, given that paper's pro-AKP editorial stance.
Agree with the rest.
That's another pretty major hurdle in the way of Turkish membership.0 -
WTF WTF WTF they earmarked £9m!!
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/mystery-of-5-million-taxpayer-funded-website-that-ran-for-3-months/How much would you pay for this website about why we should all “back climate action”? £4,000? £40,000? Well, according to a data dump from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, ministers blew a staggering £4.9 million of taxpayer’s money on the beta site, which only ran for three months. Surely some mistake?
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Miss Plato, if global warming enthusiasts want to pay me £1m I will spend the whole year promoting the theory on my website.0
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Peter Sutherland UN
The Commission wants EU countries to relocate 6000 asylum seekers per month from Greece and Italy. " If we do not the whole system collapses
No thanks.0 -
With the likes of Wordpress, these days putting up a simple informational website should cost very very little. Low £1000's, if you are literally just putting up content that is already written, logos already exist etc.Plato_Says said:WTF WTF WTF they earmarked £9m!!
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/mystery-of-5-million-taxpayer-funded-website-that-ran-for-3-months/How much would you pay for this website about why we should all “back climate action”? £4,000? £40,000? Well, according to a data dump from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, ministers blew a staggering £4.9 million of taxpayer’s money on the beta site, which only ran for three months. Surely some mistake?
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He has been suspended - rather than expelled.Roger said:
Point of order; since being expelled from the Labour party for being a c**t it's misleading to describe him as "Labour MP "...FrancisUrquhart said:Labour MP Simon Danczuk has been ordered to repay thousands of pounds after admitting he made an "error" in his expenses claims.
The Rochdale MP has been investigated over money he wrongly claimed for the cost of his children living in London.
The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) has now told him he must repay £11,583.20.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35813208
Time to give the Daily Mail another call for a "pap" shot with his latest squeeze...0 -
An air of inevitability to it now.Pulpstar said:GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
Kasich is holding townhalls in Utah, Trump may be going there too. Conceivable Cruz will be held under 50 and Trump will get above 15. That said I expect Trump has put as much organisation and effort into the Utah caucus as when he blew the Maine and Alaska caucuses.
I guess Kasich wants as many delegates as possible either to be VP for Trump or to win an increasingly unlikely contested convention.0 -
No, this was counted this morning.surbiton said:
The "old" anti-Tory understanding coming back.Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)
The other two counted last night were two Tory losses, one to Lib Dems, one to Independent.0 -
As they also do when bringing dead mouse / bird / squirrel / who-knows-what home.LewisDuckworth said:
In a way that they never do for Whiskas,domestic cats growl and wolf between growls. They will often take the piece into a secure place, such as beneath a table.Morris_Dancer said:Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?
Whether they eat it or not immediately is most likely to be a function of how hungry they are.0 -
Do you mean LD taking 10 from Labour and a comfortable con hold all things considered?surbiton said:
The "old" anti-Tory understanding coming back.Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)
BTW - given the wet PB Tory poll panic last night have there yet been sightings of Compouter/IoS/squirrels/goalposts??0 -
I'd expect a bill of say £300k for something really sexy paid for and integrated/maintenance with other HMG sites to just push a policy view. But unless it's all back ended into loads of systems these numbers are absurd.
With the likes of Wordpress, these days putting up a simple informational website should cost very very little. Low £1000's, if you are literally just putting up content that is already written, logos already exist etc.FrancisUrquhart said:Plato_Says said:WTF WTF WTF they earmarked £9m!!
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/mystery-of-5-million-taxpayer-funded-website-that-ran-for-3-months/How much would you pay for this website about why we should all “back climate action”? £4,000? £40,000? Well, according to a data dump from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, ministers blew a staggering £4.9 million of taxpayer’s money on the beta site, which only ran for three months. Surely some mistake?
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Plato_Says said:
I'd expect a bill of say £300k for something really sexy paid for and integrated with other HMG sites to just push a policy view. But unless it's all back ended into loads of systems these numbers are absurd.
With the likes of Wordpress, these days putting up a simple informational website should cost very very little. Low £1000's, if you are literally just putting up content that is already written, logos already exist etc.FrancisUrquhart said:Plato_Says said:WTF WTF WTF they earmarked £9m!!
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/mystery-of-5-million-taxpayer-funded-website-that-ran-for-3-months/How much would you pay for this website about why we should all “back climate action”? £4,000? £40,000? Well, according to a data dump from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, ministers blew a staggering £4.9 million of taxpayer’s money on the beta site, which only ran for three months. Surely some mistake?
won&t you give them some credit for saving 4million !?0 -
Pulling the thread together, Smash seems to have found a use inside Nicky Morgan's head in place of brains.
I'm glad I left Luffy before she was elected.0 -
The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
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won&t you give them some credit for saving 4million !?dugarbandier said:Plato_Says said:I'd expect a bill of say £300k for something really sexy paid for and integrated with other HMG sites to just push a policy view. But unless it's all back ended into loads of systems these numbers are absurd.
With the likes of Wordpress, these days putting up a simple informational website should cost very very little. Low £1000's, if you are literally just putting up content that is already written, logos already exist etc.FrancisUrquhart said:Plato_Says said:WTF WTF WTF they earmarked £9m!!
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/mystery-of-5-million-taxpayer-funded-website-that-ran-for-3-months/How much would you pay for this website about why we should all “back climate action”? £4,000? £40,000? Well, according to a data dump from the Department of Energy and Climate Change, ministers blew a staggering £4.9 million of taxpayer’s money on the beta site, which only ran for three months. Surely some mistake?
No wonder Cruz and Trump are enjoying so much support right now in the USA !0 -
Unfortunate moment on the Daily Politics just now where a Labour MEP talked about a final solution to the migrant crisis0
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As long as Trump isn't embarrassed in Utah, he'll be fine. He should win Arizona, after which there's nothing until Wisconsin on 5 April, which should be another win, New York a fortnight later where he could come close to sweeping the state as he did in S Carolina, and then a round of New England primaries a week after that.LondonBob said:
An air of inevitability to it now.Pulpstar said:GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
Kasich is holding townhalls in Utah, Trump may be going there too. Conceivable Cruz will be held under 50 and Trump will get above 15. That said I expect Trump has put as much organisation and effort into the Utah caucus as when he blew the Maine and Alaska caucuses.
I guess Kasich wants as many delegates as possible either to be VP for Trump or to win an increasingly unlikely contested convention.
Cruz really needs to win Utah well, otherwise there'll be a good chance that he'll be on the back foot for a long time now.0 -
Fair chance Cruz wins Utah with over 50%, whilst Trump gets ~ 40% or so there. I can see Kasich getting a classic squeeze there.david_herdson said:
As long as Trump isn't embarrassed in Utah, he'll be fine. He should win Arizona, after which there's nothing until Wisconsin on 5 April, which should be another win, New York a fortnight later where he could come close to sweeping the state as he did in S Carolina, and then a round of New England primaries a week after that.LondonBob said:
An air of inevitability to it now.Pulpstar said:GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
Kasich is holding townhalls in Utah, Trump may be going there too. Conceivable Cruz will be held under 50 and Trump will get above 15. That said I expect Trump has put as much organisation and effort into the Utah caucus as when he blew the Maine and Alaska caucuses.
I guess Kasich wants as many delegates as possible either to be VP for Trump or to win an increasingly unlikely contested convention.
Cruz really needs to win Utah well, otherwise there'll be a good chance that he'll be on the back foot for a long time now.0 -
The oddest thing I came down to was a mouse larder. Six dead ones laid neatly out side by side in a dark kitchen corner. And the moment I spotted them, Boho ran over and ate them all a tout vitesse.david_herdson said:
As they also do when bringing dead mouse / bird / squirrel / who-knows-what home.LewisDuckworth said:
In a way that they never do for Whiskas,domestic cats growl and wolf between growls. Ty will often take the piece into a secure place, such as beneath a table.Morris_Dancer said:Question for cat owners (especially larger cats): if you throw some meat for a cat and they're delighted to have it, do they purr, or just wolf it down?
Whether they eat it or not immediately is most likely to be a function of how hungry they are.0 -
How do you work that out? Surely if there was tactical anti-Tory voting then it would have been Labour, who started on 29%, rather than the Lib Dems, who started on 17%, that would have benefited from it?surbiton said:
The "old" anti-Tory understanding coming back.Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)0 -
Worthy of MattSandyRentool said:Pulling the thread together, Smash seems to have found a use inside Nicky Morgan's head in place of brains.
I'm glad I left Luffy before she was elected.0 -
What happened last night ?felix said:
Do you mean LD taking 10 from Labour and a comfortable con hold all things considered?surbiton said:
The "old" anti-Tory understanding coming back.Plato_Says said:Did we get this last night?
Britain Elects
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) result:
CON: 45.0% (-8.9)
LDEM: 27.4% (+10.1)
LAB: 18.8% (-10.0)
UKIP: 5.9% (+5.9)
IND: 2.9% (+2.9)
BTW - given the wet PB Tory poll panic last night have there yet been sightings of Compouter/IoS/squirrels/goalposts??0 -
I may be entirely wrong, but I can't see why Mormons would vote for Cruz more than another candidate.david_herdson said:
As long as Trump isn't embarrassed in Utah, he'll be fine. He should win Arizona, after which there's nothing until Wisconsin on 5 April, which should be another win, New York a fortnight later where he could come close to sweeping the state as he did in S Carolina, and then a round of New England primaries a week after that.LondonBob said:
An air of inevitability to it now.Pulpstar said:GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
Kasich is holding townhalls in Utah, Trump may be going there too. Conceivable Cruz will be held under 50 and Trump will get above 15. That said I expect Trump has put as much organisation and effort into the Utah caucus as when he blew the Maine and Alaska caucuses.
I guess Kasich wants as many delegates as possible either to be VP for Trump or to win an increasingly unlikely contested convention.
Cruz really needs to win Utah well, otherwise there'll be a good chance that he'll be on the back foot for a long time now.0 -
is it recorded?GarethoftheVale2 said:Unfortunate moment on the Daily Politics just now where a Labour MEP talked about a final solution to the migrant crisis
0 -
Thank goodness that Farage or Merkel hadn't said that.0
-
@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.0 -
No it's live. Neil pulled him up on it and he said himself that it was an unfortunate choice of words.dr_spyn said:
is it recorded?GarethoftheVale2 said:Unfortunate moment on the Daily Politics just now where a Labour MEP talked about a final solution to the migrant crisis
0 -
My heart bleeds
Danny Shaw
4 police officers arrested re Police Fed fraud allegations re "concerns about the transfer of around £1 million to a charitable account"
http://www.surrey.police.uk/News/News-Stories/Full-news-story/Article/12543/Four-arrested-in-connection-with-allegation-of-potential-fraudulent-activity-re0 -
you are judge lionel nutmeg and i claim my 5 poundsPlato_Says said:My heart bleeds
Ross Hawkin
4 police officers arrested re Police Fed fraud allegations re "concerns about the transfer of around £1 million to a charitable account"0 -
File code named Gold Cup.Plato_Says said:My heart bleeds
Danny Shaw
4 police officers arrested re Police Fed fraud allegations re "concerns about the transfer of around £1 million to a charitable account"
http://www.surrey.police.uk/News/News-Stories/Full-news-story/Article/12543/Four-arrested-in-connection-with-allegation-of-potential-fraudulent-activity-re0 -
A spokesman said later, that work would make them free.GarethoftheVale2 said:
No it's live. Neil pulled him up on it and he said himself that it was an unfortunate choice of words.dr_spyn said:
is it recorded?GarethoftheVale2 said:Unfortunate moment on the Daily Politics just now where a Labour MEP talked about a final solution to the migrant crisis
0 -
0
-
Fox
.@TedCruz goes one-on-one with @SeanHannity in a special hour-long LIVE event TONIGHT at 10p ET. Don't miss it! https://t.co/l09l74VxY70 -
@garethoftheVale2 Guido has the clip.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/18/labour-meps-final-solution-gaffe/0 -
Cruz is more religious, less crude, traditionally Mormons have been less anti immigration than other groups (possibly because Mormonism is quite big in South and Central America). I think the state legislature supported an amnesty not long ago. However ISIS might have galvanised opinion.Plato_Says said:I may be entirely wrong, but I can't see why Mormons would vote for Cruz more than another candidate.
david_herdson said:
As long as Trump isn't embarrassed in Utah, he'll be fine. He should win Arizona, after which there's nothing until Wisconsin on 5 April, which should be another win, New York a fortnight later where he could come close to sweeping the state as he did in S Carolina, and then a round of New England primaries a week after that.LondonBob said:
An air of inevitability to it now.Pulpstar said:GOP watch:
http://www.alaskagop.org/delegate_count_recalculated_after_rubio_suspends_flpfzejqkhsu9ueskitjoa
Alaska
Cruz + 2; Trump +3 in delegate count.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-happens-to-marco-rubios-delegates/
Iowa, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Hawaii, North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia, De facto Nevada
Rubio's remain bound to him.
States where delegates can or will become unbound:
New Hampshire, Tennessee, Minnesota, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Wyoming, Alabama, Texas, Kansas
Kentucky is interesting:
In Kentucky, Rubio's 7 now-unbound delegates must meet together with the state's bound delegates to hold a secret ballot through which the unbound delegates will be re-allocated to another candidate.
Kasich is holding townhalls in Utah, Trump may be going there too. Conceivable Cruz will be held under 50 and Trump will get above 15. That said I expect Trump has put as much organisation and effort into the Utah caucus as when he blew the Maine and Alaska caucuses.
I guess Kasich wants as many delegates as possible either to be VP for Trump or to win an increasingly unlikely contested convention.
Cruz really needs to win Utah well, otherwise there'll be a good chance that he'll be on the back foot for a long time now.
There was also a poll earlier in the campaign showing Trump behind in Utah if I recall.
Romney still very popular there and he's come out against Trump0 -
Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.Pulpstar said:
@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.0 -
Iirc Trump did best in the Ohio counties bordering Pennsylvania. Not sure if that is significant.Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.0 -
Jade Smith
Poor George Tinsley. 56 votes. Serves him right for defecting and becoming an independent. Bye bye cxZ6pskxWH
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) vote result:
CON: 879
LDEM: 536
LAB: 368
UKIP: 116
IND: 560 -
Be LEAVE!SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt
The LEAVE campaign exclusively for PBers
0 -
Have you thought about covering I'm a Believer with Mandy Boylett?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Be LEAVE!SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt
The LEAVE campaign exclusively for PBers0 -
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.0 -
LEAVE IN SILENCEWanderer said:
Have you thought about covering I'm a Believer with Mandy Boylett?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Be LEAVE!SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt
The LEAVE campaign exclusively for PBers0 -
Cats will steal your dinner irrespective of who is dominant - that only determines how brazen they'll be about it.Plato_Says said:Assuming your lynx sees her as more dominant, the same applies - if not, she'll steal her dinner, bed space, pillow, ignore and generally be in charge
Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, just a solitary cat in this case. It's quite handy for the lady to have her, as the owner tends not to be personally violent but having a well-trained lynx prowling around adds an element of danger.
0 -
A salutary reminder to local politicians that most voters don't give a toss who's wearing the rosette.Plato_Says said:Jade Smith
Poor George Tinsley. 56 votes. Serves him right for defecting and becoming an independent. Bye bye cxZ6pskxWH
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) vote result:
CON: 879
LDEM: 536
LAB: 368
UKIP: 116
IND: 560 -
My analysis of the results is leading me to the conclusion that alot of Democrats came out for Kasich in Ohio.
Also Illinois will stay very safely Democrat at the General 0 -
Mark Reckless. How we laughed.david_herdson said:
A salutary reminder to local politicians that most voters don't give a toss who's wearing the rosette.Plato_Says said:Jade Smith
Poor George Tinsley. 56 votes. Serves him right for defecting and becoming an independent. Bye bye cxZ6pskxWH
Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland) vote result:
CON: 879
LDEM: 536
LAB: 368
UKIP: 116
IND: 560 -
Guido Westerwelle has died.0
-
This story seems rather stupid on the part of the authority:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-358425880 -
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.0 -
It will be a pleasant day when that phrase doesn't carry such heavy baggage, just as - for example - no one cares about anyone wearing black shirts these days; they're no longer a symbol of anything.dr_spyn said:
A spokesman said later, that work would make them free.GarethoftheVale2 said:
No it's live. Neil pulled him up on it and he said himself that it was an unfortunate choice of words.dr_spyn said:
is it recorded?GarethoftheVale2 said:Unfortunate moment on the Daily Politics just now where a Labour MEP talked about a final solution to the migrant crisis
0 -
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.0 -
Inept bean counters, and MOD bureaucracy. How much will that cost the taxpayer? 15 pilots, trained at a minimum cost of £3.5M. Genius.JosiasJessop said:This story seems rather stupid on the part of the authority:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-358425880 -
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.
0 -
Indeed, I think around half a million, most of them Sanders voters.Pulpstar said:My analysis of the results is leading me to the conclusion that alot of Democrats came out for Kasich in Ohio.
Also Illinois will stay very safely Democrat at the General
Sanders, by making the defeat of Trump the priority of his supporters, cost him victory in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri.
The University of Missouri results are an example.0 -
Cruz will have (sort of) the opposite problem in New York.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.0 -
Well the bad public reaction of the budget was an event.Alistair said:
I agree that as things stand Remain is a value bet. The only thing stopping me piling on Remain is that I cannot produce a suitable forecast "Events" that I am happy with. I have not idea what chance any Event has of happening and I have no clue how soft the Remain vote is to Events.Barnesian said:The Stephen Fisher analysis is intertesting. He has REMAIN on 58% after applying a +4.4% adjustment (half the average difference between online and phone polls).
He believes that the polling error is very large and estimates that the standard deviation is 7%. If you look up a normal distribution table, you will find that this implies that REMAIN has an 87% chance of getting more than 50%, as he says.
However if you disregard the +4.4% adjustment for the difference between polling methodologies, then REMAIN is on 53.6% (half a σ away from 50%), implying that the chance of REMAIN getting more than 50% is only 69%.
This is exactly the same as the chance implied by the betting on Betfair. See above.
In other words, the betting is ignoring the telephone polling and relying only on the online polls.
Psychologically, I find I'm doing the same thing and concentrating only on the online polls.
From a betting perspective, it is really important to understand the cause of the difference between the two polling methodologies (Fisher doesn't know so he goes half way).
In the meantime, in the absence of that understanding and a crystal ball, REMAIN at a 69% chance must be a value bet.
Without being able to price in Events I am staying away.0 -
Looking at the Idaho results in the counties that are mormon heavy, Trump took 15% on average, he will be lucky if he gets more than than in Utah.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.
So for Cruz to stay bellow 50 in Utah, Kasich will have to split the mormon vote with him.0 -
Trump should be targeting 95/95 in NY and 120+ in California.Pulpstar said:
Cruz will have (sort of) the opposite problem in New York.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.0 -
So you really think Kasich will get 35%? There's only one permissible conclusion to your analysis, that's Cruz on 60 to 70%.Speedy said:
Looking at the Idaho results in the counties that are mormon heavy, Trump took 15% on average, he will be lucky if he gets more than than in Utah.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.
So for Cruz to stay bellow 50 in Utah, Kasich will have to split the mormon vote with him.0 -
Well if Trump beats Cruz by 50 points in N.Y and by 60 points over Kasich as the latest poll suggests, he will have no problem getting all 95 delegates.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump should be targeting 95/95 in NY and 120+ in California.Pulpstar said:
Cruz will have (sort of) the opposite problem in New York.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Utah with three candidates under 50% is proportional.Speedy said:
For the Utah result it's best to look at the Idaho parts that are mormon heavy, mormons hate Trump along with the heavy christian fundamentalist areas in the great plains.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Trump could do with Cruz failing to get 50% in Utah, 49.9% would be, probably, twenty delegates better for Trump.Plato_Says said:Thanks, will factor that in my thinking.
Pulpstar said:@Plato_Says Cruz seems to be quite popular once you get out past the rustbelt into the rural west of the USA. I'd expect him to carry Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah of the remaining states.
I think Trump picks up again when you get nearer the coast, and is obviously stronger in the North east seaboard.
Arizona and Maine are the exceptions that prove the rule.
Kasich perhaps has a very vague hope of Pennsylvania, can't see it personally though.
Utah has 40 delegates so if Cruz is bellow 50% then Trump will get 4-6 delegates, I'm counting on him getting zero.
Unless you think Kasich is going to get 25%+ then Cruz<50% implies Trump>25% and therefore 10 or more delegates.
As for Utah, indeed Kasich will need to split the mormon vote with Cruz to keep him under 50, a big task but he is trying with some endorsements and campaigning there.0 -
Prime suspect in Paris attacks escapes police AGAIN: Salah Abdeslam's fingerprints found in raided flat after Brussels shootout0
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Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.0
-
Lying Tory at it again , you use a different face depending on what you are commenting on. Surviving despite the best attempts of the Tories to beggar Scotland.CarlottaVance said:
As part of the United Kingdom, which is, I suspect, the bigger picture....scotslass said:SNP continue to prosper.
But good to see Sturgeon is starting to argue that if Scots want free stuff they should pay for it.......isn't that a nice change?0 -
Dear God, Harris could not run a bath.SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt0 -
The young woman claimed she was assaulted by the disgraced children’s entertainer at a party at BBC Television Centre in 2004.
Harris is said to have groped her breasts and thrust his crotch against her in a dimly lit room after the filming of a show.
When the alleged victim complained, she said she was told that ‘Rolf Harris is a dirty old man’ and she should ‘get with the programme’.
She was also told arrangements had been made to make sure women were not left in a room with him, it was claimed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3497254/Rolf-Harris-faces-eight-new-charges-molesting-women-girls-young-12.html
Nobody knew anything...0 -
I would say Cruz has a 75% of getting 50% +. Three candidates only hurts Trump in this case.Pulpstar said:Trump's targets for next week must be to win Arizona, and simply get more than zero delegates in Utah.
However if he can get 9 in Samoa, then that +6 will balance out Utah -9 vs 538 targets.
Trump's bigger test will be Wisconsin.
0 -
Things I've learned today: the American Known Nothing movement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
Well worth a read.0 -
Bless you my son – btw, I’m trying to keep a low profile…malcolmg said:
Dear God, Harris could not run a bath.SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt0 -
Can we recall Jade Dernbach?0
-
Bit tetchy today. Looking forward to Nicola's tax rises?malcolmg said:
Dear God, Harris could not run a bath.SimonStClare said:
VoteLeave, GO, ScotsVoteLeave, - how many Leave campaigns will there be by 23rd June?Plato_Says said:Tom Harris
Why I've decided to run the Scottish campaign to @vote_leave @ScotsVoteLeave https://t.co/9685isx1Jt0 -
North Carolina around Raleigh looked odd to me, even odder that they would vote Cruz as an anti Trump vote, I would have expected Rubio or Kasich to do better there but not Cruz. Something to take into account with Wisconsin being an open primary, although I expect Reagan Democrats will outnumber them. A Trump caucus goer said in Minnesota a bunch of college kids showed up and were noisily anti Trump who then voted for Rubio, he said normally it is just old folks like him going to these caucuses.Speedy said:
Indeed, I think around half a million, most of them Sanders voters.Pulpstar said:My analysis of the results is leading me to the conclusion that alot of Democrats came out for Kasich in Ohio.
Also Illinois will stay very safely Democrat at the General
Sanders, by making the defeat of Trump the priority of his supporters, cost him victory in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri.
The University of Missouri results are an example.
People have to remember for next Tuesday Arizona is SW, unlike the Plains and Mountain West they aren't so offended by Trump's bombast and are a lot more tribal, settled by folks coming west from the Deep South and Appalachia. California and Arizona will be more like Nevada, Texas was just an anomaly as it was Cruz's home state.
Kasich has no hope in PA, he barely won his own state. PA is Appalachia in the west and strongly influence by NY in the east, very strong state for Trump which will be relevant for the general.
Utah only matters in the sense it is better to put it to bed sooner rather than later. Get your opponents to accept the inevitable etc.
0 -
It was just resting in my account....Plato_Says said:My heart bleeds
Danny Shaw
4 police officers arrested re Police Fed fraud allegations re "concerns about the transfer of around £1 million to a charitable account"
http://www.surrey.police.uk/News/News-Stories/Full-news-story/Article/12543/Four-arrested-in-connection-with-allegation-of-potential-fraudulent-activity-re0
