politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the outcome of May’s London Mayoral Election in the
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This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.0 -
CBS and Quinnipiac latest polls have a dead heat, but Kasich ahead in 4 others - agree it seems a tall order for Trump on the face of it.Speedy said:I'm looking at the 538 delegate tracker to see how losing Ohio impacts Trump.
To make up for the shortfall of the 66 Ohio delegates, Trump has to get more than 60% in N.Carolina + all of N.Mariana Islands delegates+ all of Missouri delegates+ all of Illinois delegates. An impossible task.
At present course he is going to come tomorrow out around 50 delegates short and he only has a 16 delegate margin.
So he will start to fall behind his targets for 1237 delegates, and that will only grow for the next month since he won't win any delegates from Utah, Colorado and N.Dakota.
By April 16th Trump will be around 60 delegates short of his targets for a majority, he will need to make up that difference by winning almost all congressional districts in N.Y and Pennsylvania.
Failing that, his next chance will the last primary on June 7th in California, last poll there has Trump leading by 16:
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/16-CA-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Poll-March.pdf
Trump will face a difficult month from now till April 19th when N.Y. votes.0 -
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie
Telegraph's #Brexit poll: Remain on 47%, Leave on 48% but Leave ahead by 52% to 44%, adjusted for likelihood to vote http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12193963/EU-referendum-Exclusive-Telegraph-poll-says-Leave-campaign-most-likely-to-win-in-June.html …0 -
He's got more delegates than the 538 numbers suggest. Guam, VI, and Louisiana all have delegates not yet pledged.Speedy said:I'm looking at the 538 delegate tracker to see how losing Ohio impacts Trump.
To make up for the shortfall of the 66 Ohio delegates, Trump has to get more than 60% in N.Carolina + all of N.Mariana Islands delegates+ all of Missouri delegates+ all of Illinois delegates. An impossible task.
At present course he is going to come tomorrow out around 50 delegates short and he only has a 16 delegate margin.
So he will start to fall behind his targets for 1237 delegates, and that will only grow for the next month since he won't win any delegates from Utah, Colorado and N.Dakota.
By April 16th Trump will be around 60 delegates short of his targets for a majority, he will need to make up that difference by winning almost all congressional districts in N.Y and Pennsylvania.
Failing that, his next chance will the last primary on June 7th in California, last poll there has Trump leading by 16:
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/16-CA-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Poll-March.pdf
Trump will face a difficult month from now till April 19th when N.Y. votes.
A win in Illinois would be sufficient damage limitation for Trump, since Rubio will drop out or become irrelevant thereafter.0 -
P2P is fine, so long as you know it's NOT FSA guaranteed. Diversification is key.Cyclefree said:
Peer to peer lending has already been warned about. It is likely that any new development will lead to good and bad stuff happening. New ways of using assets and using technology strikes me, on the whole, as a good thing. It's the whole moral self-righteous guff that goes with it that is so nauseating, as well as the hypocrisy. Tech barons are as good at sweating their assets, whether this be people, techie stuff or consumers' data as any red-in-tooth-and-claw 19th century railway baron.nigel4england said:
I have a feeling some of these things will end in tears, AirBnB, Uber, peer lending.Cyclefree said:
I have not rented through AirBnB but have a friend who rents out part of his property and is generally very pleased. It is an architectural gem so tends to attract people interested in the architecture.Alistair said:
Would people rent AirBnB Properties if they knew they were being rented illegally and that the landlord may not have public liability insurance?rcs1000 said:
Willing buyer, willing seller. The fundamental principle of the capitalist system.
What I would be concerned about is (a) getting what is promised; (b) the flat is safe i.e. no dodgy boilers, fire hazards etc. I quite like hotels and don't really want the bother of having to keep house in any way when on holiday - I do quite enough of that at home - but each to their own.
I would not rent out my own home to strangers.
Still, this seems to me to be a trivial issue for London. Housing for Londoners is of far more importance than the choice of accommodation available to tourists.
Or maybe I'm just old.
Wellesley gives a very low rate for commercial bridging loans mind, ~ 7% whereas you should be able to get 12%+ on stuff like that. Whether their target market of pensioners watching daytime TV realises this is another matter.0 -
Zac is not anti-Uber. He is pro-choice in cabs. He backs black cabs but it clear that technology will always be a part of the Cab market from now on. Being anti-Heathrow is not anti-busienss. ON teh contrary. Heathrow is a legal monopoly, plus 40% share, it causes pollution (breaks legal limits), congestion and noise. and it wants £7 B from tax payers. Gatwick is not a monopoly, is closer to the City, wants no cash. Zac is likely to freeze council tax. Khan will have to raise it to pay for his pledges.rcs1000 said:
I'm not voting for the least worst option. If you are not in favour of Heathrow expansion and Uber, then - as far as I am concerned - you are not worthy of my vote.Dixie said:A vote for Khan is a vote for massive increases in Council tax precept - 153% under Ken, and Unions with an office in City hall. That's what Khan has said. We will be goners. Vote blue for a boring life at least.
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It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.
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Apparently the sky will fall in if we leave! The 1,000 year old city of London will disintegrate. There were no banks at all in UK before UK were in EU! Actually 50,000 bankers claim they will leave. I think that is incentive enough! Vote freedomAndyJS said:
That's what happens when you run a negative campaign based on fear. (Personally I still haven't decided which way to vote).Tykejohnno said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
ORB online reporting that LEAVE 8% ahead when likelihood to vote taken into account. 1% when it isn't0 -
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.0 -
Do you blame them?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Anglophobia reemerging after very long dormancy in US politics.RodCrosby said:
Anyhow here's the man arriving in OH...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46g1xklBsz00 -
There's a bizarre moment in this press conference where Rubio seems to break character around the 1:50 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztdzg5kssXk0 -
Featured on Skyweejonnie said:
Guess which paper won't be shown on Sky and BBC press review - starting now.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like there is a poll by ORB which has Leave ahead
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7094962330905518080 -
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.0 -
You see that absent a Trump victory in Ohio, it will become a race for congressional districts rather than states.TheWhiteRabbit said:
He's got more delegates than the 538 numbers suggest. Guam, VI, and Louisiana all have delegates not yet pledged.Speedy said:I'm looking at the 538 delegate tracker to see how losing Ohio impacts Trump.
To make up for the shortfall of the 66 Ohio delegates, Trump has to get more than 60% in N.Carolina + all of N.Mariana Islands delegates+ all of Missouri delegates+ all of Illinois delegates. An impossible task.
At present course he is going to come tomorrow out around 50 delegates short and he only has a 16 delegate margin.
So he will start to fall behind his targets for 1237 delegates, and that will only grow for the next month since he won't win any delegates from Utah, Colorado and N.Dakota.
By April 16th Trump will be around 60 delegates short of his targets for a majority, he will need to make up that difference by winning almost all congressional districts in N.Y and Pennsylvania.
Failing that, his next chance will the last primary on June 7th in California, last poll there has Trump leading by 16:
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/16-CA-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Poll-March.pdf
Trump will face a difficult month from now till April 19th when N.Y. votes.
A win in Illinois would be sufficient damage limitation for Trump, since Rubio will drop out or become irrelevant thereafter.
There is enough margin for the anti-Trump's to keep the primary race on forever, morale wise April 26th is the last chance for Trump to win all states that vote on a single day.
Kasich is a far more dangerous rival than Rubio for Trump, in places where Cruz can't fight Kasich can, so Trump is in a danger of fighting a 2 front war.
Don't forget their battle is to stop Trump, not electing Cruz or Kasich.
Also don't forget, the longer the GOP primary goes on the greater the damage to the GOP short and long term, I have never seen a political party hating it's own voters so much.0 -
"We had a party that was obsolete. Mitt Romney couldn't run for dog-catcher..."0
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Trump: "We had a party that was obsolete. Mitt Romney couldn't run for dog-catcher. I backed McCain and he lost; I backed Romney and he lost. This time we've got to do it ourselves."0
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"He holds up the bible and starts lying, lyin' Ted" that line just totally cracks me up for some reason.0
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Snake moment?0
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"Almost everyone in the audience is smarter than the people running the country."
Flattering the voters never hurts.0 -
"Wall will be 45-50 feet"0
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Height or length?RodCrosby said:"Wall will be 45-50 feet"
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Does he realize that poem could be about him ?Pulpstar said:Here it comes
Poet Trump "The snake !"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULx9k2QkL940 -
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Chain gangs?FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
The figure is actually accurate:Pulpstar said:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/09/this-is-what-trumps-border-wall-could-cost-us.html0 -
Not excusing the crime, but it's a bit pathetic when a single crime anywhere in Europe is a big story in the Mail if it involves a migrant.FrancisUrquhart said:And in today's tale of happy integration into Europe....
A 16-year-old refugee is accused of luring a young Austrian woman into a house, forcing her into a basement and attempting to rape her.
The Libyan teenager is being held by police after the 18-year-old woman was rescued from a cellar in Vienna.
A second, older woman, 20, managed to tear herself away from her attacker on Saturday and alerted police.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3491793/Libyan-migrant-16-forced-young-Austrian-woman-basement-tried-rape-her.html0 -
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Depth.old_labour said:0 -
Saxony Anhalt polls before the election, AfD support: 18%, 18%, 19%, 17%, 17%. They polled 24.2%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016#Polls0 -
I think it will be 55%. I have yet to see much interest in the referendum. Maybe it will pick up closer to the big day.AndyJS said:
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.0 -
I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Girth.RodCrosby said:
Depth.old_labour said:0 -
Nothing is terrible for Trump. The more bizarre he acts, the more votes he gets. He's earning trust all the way.Speedy said:
That poem is terrible for Trump, he should choose another poem.RodCrosby said:Snake moment?
People can't believe there has ever been a politician like this in the history of the world.
Well almost.0 -
Trump conceding to Lincoln0
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Trump had a moment of humility just then, said he can't be as presidential as Abraham Lincoln was.0
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Honest Abe.Wanderer said:Trump conceding to Lincoln
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I think it will be 70%+ and Remain will win clearly as a result. When the campaign starts proper it will be everywhere. I just hope Remain don't get above 60%. If only a 10% swing is needed to change result, it can't be interpreted as settled will of people.MP_SE said:
I think it will be 55%. I have yet to see much interest in the referendum. Maybe it will pick up closer to the big day.AndyJS said:
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.0 -
I also agree that turnout will be around 50.MP_SE said:
I think it will be 55%. I have yet to see much interest in the referendum. Maybe it will pick up closer to the big day.AndyJS said:
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.
It will be higher than the AV one but lower than the GE.
Goodnight.0 -
Note the unwritten comparison to 'Lyin' Ted'williamglenn said:
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They've already built a fence for a third of the length of the border. It's odd that Trump is seen as a loon for proposing to do the same thing, but more thoroughly.FrancisUrquhart said:I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.
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He's doing great mind-games with temporal shifts, talking as if he already is the President, and taking the audience into his confidence about what he would do/is doing.0
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I think it is the soundbite claim he will get Mexico to pay for it as much as anything. Several of the GOP candidates back a boundary fence/ wall.Richard_Nabavi said:
They've already built a fence for a third of the length of the border. It's odd that Trump is seen as a loon for proposing to do the same thing, but more thoroughly.FrancisUrquhart said:I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.
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Yeah, that is pretty loony. He'd have done better to say he'd finance it by taxing speaking fees paid by Goldman Sachs.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it is the soundbite claim he will get Mexico to pay for it as much as anything.Richard_Nabavi said:
They've already built a fence for a third of the length of the border. It's odd that Trump is seen as a loon for proposing to do the same thing, but more thoroughly.FrancisUrquhart said:I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.
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Shy voter syndrome at work there.AndyJS said:Saxony Anhalt polls before the election, AfD support: 18%, 18%, 19%, 17%, 17%. They polled 24.2%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016#Polls
Well 2 1000pi day cycles since the formation of the Euro on 1st January 1999 passed today. And it does seem remarkably that the US dollar is putting some foundation waves in to move higher right on track. And its also pi day to boot - 3/14 (14th March). The real turning point is I think that investors will finally being to lose faith that ever lower interest rates are going to revive the global economy. Not before time.........but irreparable damage has already been done to many pension schemes as a result. And Mr Osborne's plan to reward the poor saving is a classic Brownian response to a perceived problem - if he had any sense he would just reduce the tax on savings without any of the nonsense gimmickery which has become a hallmark of Mr Osborne in recent years, just as I suspect it will on Wednesday too.
Happy pi day everyone!0 -
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Is that a fancy way of admitting that the S+P500 is up 6.68% in the last month?hunchman said:
Shy voter syndrome at work there.AndyJS said:Saxony Anhalt polls before the election, AfD support: 18%, 18%, 19%, 17%, 17%. They polled 24.2%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016#Polls
Well 2 1000pi day cycles since the formation of the Euro on 1st January 1999 passed today. And it does seem remarkably that the US dollar is putting some foundation waves in to move higher right on track. And its also pi day to boot - 3/14 (14th March). The real turning point is I think that investors will finally being to lose faith that ever lower interest rates are going to revive the global economy. Not before time.........but irreparable damage has already been done to many pension schemes as a result. And Mr Osborne's plan to reward the poor saving is a classic Brownian response to a perceived problem - if he had any sense he would just reduce the tax on savings without any of the nonsense gimmickery which has become a hallmark of Mr Osborne in recent years, just as I suspect it will on Wednesday too.
Happy pi day everyone!0 -
Turnout will be at least 65%, coverage will be wall to wall from late May, the key for Remain is undecideds, Leave lead with the decideds at the momentSpeedy said:
I also agree that turnout will be around 50.MP_SE said:
I think it will be 55%. I have yet to see much interest in the referendum. Maybe it will pick up closer to the big day.AndyJS said:
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.
It will be higher than the AV one but lower than the GE.
Goodnight.0 -
The Mail are on a Brexit crusadeNickPalmer said:
Not excusing the crime, but it's a bit pathetic when a single crime anywhere in Europe is a big story in the Mail if it involves a migrant.FrancisUrquhart said:And in today's tale of happy integration into Europe....
A 16-year-old refugee is accused of luring a young Austrian woman into a house, forcing her into a basement and attempting to rape her.
The Libyan teenager is being held by police after the 18-year-old woman was rescued from a cellar in Vienna.
A second, older woman, 20, managed to tear herself away from her attacker on Saturday and alerted police.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3491793/Libyan-migrant-16-forced-young-Austrian-woman-basement-tried-rape-her.html0 -
Is tommorow the day George admits he's lost the £20 billion the OBR found down the back of the sofa in November for him.
Objectively he's probably a decent bet for next PM I'm not topping up though.0 -
Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it is the soundbite claim he will get Mexico to pay for it as much as anything. Several of the GOP candidates back a boundary fence/ wall.Richard_Nabavi said:
They've already built a fence for a third of the length of the border. It's odd that Trump is seen as a loon for proposing to do the same thing, but more thoroughly.FrancisUrquhart said:I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.
All written up by Kris Kobach, so very legal. It is just what national leaders who look after their own country's interests first do. The US has huge clout with countries with big trade surpluses, smart to use that clout.0 -
Leave will win in my opinion, expect a swing to leave in the closing stages as the patriotic juices start to flow.HYUFD said:
Turnout will be at least 65%, coverage will be wall to wall from late May, the key for Remain is undecideds, Leave lead with the decideds at the momentSpeedy said:
I also agree that turnout will be around 50.MP_SE said:
I think it will be 55%. I have yet to see much interest in the referendum. Maybe it will pick up closer to the big day.AndyJS said:
Yeah, it'll probably be between 60% and the general election turnout of 65%. I went for 62% in the prediction competition.rcs1000 said:
I'm not sure. I think it'll be north of 60%, even if it is short of the GESouthamObserver said:
It'll fail. People aren't interested. This is not the Scottish independence referendum. I expect turnout will be well below GE levels.rcs1000 said:
This, of course, explains Project FearSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
PF is all about getting the 51% who aren't engaged, and therefore think the EU is probably OK, out to vote.
It will be higher than the AV one but lower than the GE.
Goodnight.0 -
No market goes in a straight line ever - I'm pleased to see a short term high here. We should start moving lower again this week, but it is still overall a correction. Once capital sniffs out in a big way that it is government that is in big trouble, with retail participation in stocks currently pretty low, the US stockmarket as a whole will move to the upside, to the astonishment of a lot of people. But that shouldn't be a surprise once capital really begins to move out of the sovereign bond market - its all interlinked.Richard_Nabavi said:
Is that a fancy way of admitting that the S+P500 is up 6.68% in the last month?hunchman said:
Shy voter syndrome at work there.AndyJS said:Saxony Anhalt polls before the election, AfD support: 18%, 18%, 19%, 17%, 17%. They polled 24.2%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016#Polls
Well 2 1000pi day cycles since the formation of the Euro on 1st January 1999 passed today. And it does seem remarkably that the US dollar is putting some foundation waves in to move higher right on track. And its also pi day to boot - 3/14 (14th March). The real turning point is I think that investors will finally being to lose faith that ever lower interest rates are going to revive the global economy. Not before time.........but irreparable damage has already been done to many pension schemes as a result. And Mr Osborne's plan to reward the poor saving is a classic Brownian response to a perceived problem - if he had any sense he would just reduce the tax on savings without any of the nonsense gimmickery which has become a hallmark of Mr Osborne in recent years, just as I suspect it will on Wednesday too.
Happy pi day everyone!0 -
Well that lasted a long time didn't it. The cycle turned down at the start of October last year. It turns up again in January 2020. Its quite clear that the OBR and Mr Osborne were oblivious to that with their £20bn nonsense!Pulpstar said:Is tommorow the day George admits he's lost the £20 billion the OBR found down the back of the sofa in November for him.
Objectively he's probably a decent bet for next PM I'm not topping up though.
Good night all.0 -
A good point, and of course I expect they are or will be eventually...Cyclefree said:
Don't you think that tech companies are themselves turning into vested interests seeking to get laws passed to help them at the expense of others?Mortimer said:
Indeed.rcs1000 said:
Willing buyer, willing seller. The fundamental principle of the capitalist system.Alistair said:
AirBnB is reliant on facilitating breaking the law to make their living, they encourage it and try to cover up the evidence.rcs1000 said:
Yes, how utterly despicable to help people rent out their homes.Alistair said:
Yes, Uber in London is just a mini-cab company with a nice app. Uber in othe parts of the world is more ethically dubious.rcs1000 said:NorfolkTilIDie said:
I've got no problem with different fare limits and ratios. What I object to is Uber pretending its drivers are not really employees when they limit them from taking fares outside their system....rcs1000 said:
...NorfolkTilIDie said:
AirBnB are full on scumbags.
Only a fraction of their business is made from their advertisment-style renting out a room to adventurous travellers. The vast majority of their business comes from whole property lets, mostly from people breaking their lease or zoning laws or both. The state of the liability insurance they offer is also incredibly dubious.
EDIT: I work at the intersection of the tech and travel industry so this isn't some techno-luddite view.
Tech is helping the consumer overcome the (often restrictive) regulation that vested interests have encouraged lawmakers to pass since WW2.
Tech is useful but tech companies - whatever PR guff they come out with - are not altruistic charities. They are in it for themselves and only themselves.
But, at the same time, public opinion and the threat of negative publicity matters so much more for tech companies. Pleasing consumers is more important for tech companies than regulation of the wider marketplace.
That said, when it comes to accounting set ups and tax affairs, I'm not sure the consumer is that interested. Maybe he will prove to be in the long term...
Perhaps such issues will become more nationalistic in an age of globalisation?0 -
The Liberal Democrats are to offer local associations the chance to use "all-disabled shortlists" to select candidates to stand in elections.0
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Most of the GOP is beginning to coalesce around Trump, don't allow the talking heads to distract from that. Trump's favourables, polling numbers and acceptance of his eventual nomination continue to rise. He has a fair number of endorsements now too.Speedy said:
You see that absent a Trump victory in Ohio, it will become a race for congressional districts rather than states.TheWhiteRabbit said:
He's got more delegates than the 538 numbers suggest. Guam, VI, and Louisiana all have delegates not yet pledged.Speedy said:I'm looking at the 538 delegate tracker to see how losing Ohio impacts Trump.
To make up for the shortfall of the 66 Ohio delegates, Trump has to get more than 60% in N.Carolina + all of N.Mariana Islands delegates+ all of Missouri delegates+ all of Illinois delegates. An impossible task.
At present course he is going to come tomorrow out around 50 delegates short and he only has a 16 delegate margin.
So he will start to fall behind his targets for 1237 delegates, and that will only grow for the next month since he won't win any delegates from Utah, Colorado and N.Dakota.
By April 16th Trump will be around 60 delegates short of his targets for a majority, he will need to make up that difference by winning almost all congressional districts in N.Y and Pennsylvania.
Failing that, his next chance will the last primary on June 7th in California, last poll there has Trump leading by 16:
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/16-CA-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Poll-March.pdf
Trump will face a difficult month from now till April 19th when N.Y. votes.
A win in Illinois would be sufficient damage limitation for Trump, since Rubio will drop out or become irrelevant thereafter.
There is enough margin for the anti-Trump's to keep the primary race on forever, morale wise April 26th is the last chance for Trump to win all states that vote on a single day.
Kasich is a far more dangerous rival than Rubio for Trump, in places where Cruz can't fight Kasich can, so Trump is in a danger of fighting a 2 front war.
Don't forget their battle is to stop Trump, not electing Cruz or Kasich.
Also don't forget, the longer the GOP primary goes on the greater the damage to the GOP short and long term, I have never seen a political party hating it's own voters so much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_endorsements,_2016
Besides Trump will win Arizona and get a few delegates in Utah, not everyone there is Mormon, before NY. NY I expect him to get well over 50% and likely plus 60%.0 -
Could they be any more disabled than they already are?FrancisUrquhart said:The Liberal Democrats are to offer local associations the chance to use "all-disabled shortlists" to select candidates to stand in elections.
0 -
Just in case this wasn't already posted
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgIhGgrhQeE0 -
Interestingly Trump has received the blessing of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Torres of Northern Marianas - which should add a few delegates (I think)0
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http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/director-clint-eastwood-just-made-a-huge-announcement-about-donald-trump/
Clint Eastwood endorses Trump !0 -
The cosmetics company Avon plans to move its headquarters to Britain and cut 2,500 jobs worldwide as part of a turnaround plan.
The company, which has been struggling with its US sales, said that it would move from New York to the UK "over time".
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35808678
I am sure this tit bit of news won't be missed by Osborne....or Trump...0 -
Would a huge announcement being that he wasn't endorsing Trump ;-) ....Regardless of what side you are on, I hope they keep him away from doing the weird art house stuff...Pulpstar said:http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/director-clint-eastwood-just-made-a-huge-announcement-about-donald-trump/
Clint Eastwood endorses Trump !0 -
Good news for Northampton.FrancisUrquhart said:The cosmetics company Avon plans to move its headquarters to Britain and cut 2,500 jobs worldwide as part of a turnaround plan.
The company, which has been struggling with its US sales, said that it would move from New York to the UK "over time".0 -
Really ? I thought ICM was supposed to be the Gold Standard!Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM = titter....
Howay the lads...0 -
In this case even ICM are saying erhh well maybe not.justin124 said:
Really ? I thought ICM was supposed to be the Gold Standard!Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM = titter....
Howay the lads...0 -
But there are many reports of this type every day, it isn't a one off.NickPalmer said:
Not excusing the crime, but it's a bit pathetic when a single crime anywhere in Europe is a big story in the Mail if it involves a migrant.FrancisUrquhart said:And in today's tale of happy integration into Europe....
A 16-year-old refugee is accused of luring a young Austrian woman into a house, forcing her into a basement and attempting to rape her.
The Libyan teenager is being held by police after the 18-year-old woman was rescued from a cellar in Vienna.
A second, older woman, 20, managed to tear herself away from her attacker on Saturday and alerted police.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3491793/Libyan-migrant-16-forced-young-Austrian-woman-basement-tried-rape-her.html0 -
ICM Phone is the Gold Standard. Was this Phone or Online?justin124 said:
Really ? I thought ICM was supposed to be the Gold Standard!Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM = titter....
Howay the lads...0 -
Telegraph seems to be missing...Is there something good on the front page?
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-358084590 -
Yep. The status quo has mostly lukewarm support, reducing its influence. Is it enough? Coukd be, I hopeSouthamObserver said:As one of the few on here who has predicted a Leave win, I reckon Lynton Crosby is spot on. It's what I've thought for ages: Leavers are far more motivated to go out and vote. No-one outside the LibDems is positively fond of the EU. At least six or seven million hate it.
0 -
Probably paraphiliacs.FrancisUrquhart said:The Liberal Democrats are to offer local associations the chance to use "all-disabled shortlists" to select candidates to stand in elections.
0 -
I believe that Guardian ICM are normally phone polls.Philip_Thompson said:
ICM Phone is the Gold Standard. Was this Phone or Online?justin124 said:
Really ? I thought ICM was supposed to be the Gold Standard!Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM = titter....
Howay the lads...0 -
Oh god they let her out the box again...
Sarah Palin makes surprise Trump rally appearance
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-358063770 -
ICM = PB Tories 4 Corbyn Rejoice!0
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Why are they not doing Euro referendum supplementaries then? It's irritating that we've got only online ICM for that rather than a phone poll, even if it is rogue.justin124 said:
I believe that Guardian ICM are normally phone polls.Philip_Thompson said:
ICM Phone is the Gold Standard. Was this Phone or Online?justin124 said:
Really ? I thought ICM was supposed to be the Gold Standard!Scrapheap_as_was said:ICM = titter....
Howay the lads...0 -
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg0 -
Gran Trumpino!Pulpstar said:http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/director-clint-eastwood-just-made-a-huge-announcement-about-donald-trump/
Clint Eastwood endorses Trump !0 -
What percentage of the Indian population speaks Hindi fluently?Sunil_Prasannan said:
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg0 -
Telegraph is there now; does not seem to be anything remarkable. Brexit has edge; Crosby joins Telegraph; big horsey pic for Cheltenham.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph seems to be missing...Is there something good on the front page?
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-35808459
The Guardian is morphing into the Mail with details of Tony Blair's property portfolio.0 -
Telegraph front page was posted earlier in this thread.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph seems to be missing...Is there something good on the front page?
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-358084590 -
Racism is thrown about to cheaply in some cases and the Dan Hannan tweet for me is one of them.Sunil_Prasannan said:
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg
I posted this before but it seems it need's repeating for some PC clown's -
When you get your windows smashed in with a red house bricks and your called white bast*rds,that's racism and this happened to me and my family.0 -
2011 Census data hasn't been released yet, but in 2001 it was 422 million out of 1,029 million, or 41%.AndyJS said:
What percentage of the Indian population speaks Hindi fluently?Sunil_Prasannan said:
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg0 -
Average of 8 polls since Cameron named the date gives Remain a lead of 0.25%. Would be equal to about 75,000 votes assuming a 30 million turnout.0
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Is the Führer not doing any more events today?0
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Thanks.Sunil_Prasannan said:
2011 Census data hasn't been released yet, but in 2001 it was 422 million out of 1,029 million, or 41%.AndyJS said:
What percentage of the Indian population speaks Hindi fluently?Sunil_Prasannan said:
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg0 -
But is that necessarily their first language ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
2011 Census data hasn't been released yet, but in 2001 it was 422 million out of 1,029 million, or 41%.AndyJS said:
What percentage of the Indian population speaks Hindi fluently?Sunil_Prasannan said:
English and Hindi are the two main official languages, along with twenty-or so regional ones.EPG said:
Is India an English-speaking nation?Tykejohnno said:Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP Daniel Hannan Retweeted Ryan Coetzee
Ladies and gentlemen, the chief strategist at the remain campaign...
Ryan Coetzee @RyanCoetzee
@DanHannanMEP Your tweet is racist, bluntly. And I am not some sort of #mustfall lefty, Dan. But it really is.
All because of this tweet ?
Daniel HannanVerified account
@DanHannanMEP
Today is #CommonwealthDay - a day to celebrate the family of English-speaking nations who have fought together for freedom
Never mind, if someone calls it racist then PB Comments will be for it
There's also this map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_language#/media/File:Anglospeak.svg0 -
Tunnels anyone ? If they can do it in Gaza, they can in Mexicana.Richard_Nabavi said:
They've already built a fence for a third of the length of the border. It's odd that Trump is seen as a loon for proposing to do the same thing, but more thoroughly.FrancisUrquhart said:I believe although the border is 2000 miles, for a variety of reasons, they only need to build for half that.
0 -
Biggest employment generator for Mexicans. They need illegal workers.Richard_Nabavi said:0
