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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the outcome of May’s London Mayoral Election in the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the outcome of May’s London Mayoral Election in the latest PB Prize Competition
Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner.
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'Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s own lawyer agrees the presidential campaign submitted fewer valid signatures than are required for the candidate to appear on Pennsylvania’s primary ballot. But he argued in court Wednesday that it doesn’t matter because an objection to Mr. Kasich’s nominating petitions was filed 13 minutes too late...'
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/14/will-john-kasich-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-pennsylvania-primary/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump’s-chances-win-nomination
Since the polling disaster of last year not everyone is willing to pay for polling, especially given the divergence between the phone and online polls.
We've had a Scottish EU ref poll in the last week though.
Start with GE2015 results for the London constituencies. Adjust them so they add up to 100 per cent. Now mess around with them on the basis of how you think the campaign is going, the referendum and the budget. Readjust them to 100 per cent. Enter.
Labour's Vicki Kirby: "What do you know abt Jews? They've got big noses and support spurs" https://t.co/dXXpANoA2t https://t.co/cfkgUAJBC9
lololol the French are the EU citizens most likely to favour Brexit: https://t.co/L9D3zJaDMX https://t.co/pJlPNAoVdO
Ohio:
Clinton 46
Sanders 41
Illinois:
Clinton 48
Sanders 45
Missouri:
Sanders 47
Clinton 46
@ppppolls
Trump 38
Kasich 38
Cruz 16
Rubio 3
Of Florida [corrects order]:
Trump 46
Rubio 22
Cruz 14
Kasich 10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rlz6cU8M-k
24% of congressional districts lack one of the major parties on the ballot in the 16 states where filing has closed https://t.co/VinCpbjpSL
Cheers to Mr. Smithson, Mr. Hopkins and (presumably) Mr. Nelson for donating the prize.
Mind you, £79 is a whopper of a price.
Edited extra bit: I've decided not to enter, partly because I keep forgetting which e-mail address I used before, and mostly because I already have a ridiculous reading list (perhaps not helped by my decision to re-read a book that could eat Lord of the Rings twice and still have enough word count left to polish off The Hobbit).
No doubt a super patriot like you would agree?
CORRECTION:
Ohio Primaries
GOP:
Kasich 44%
Trump 38
Cruz 12
Rubio 2
DEM'S:
Clinton 52%
Sanders 45
ARG 3/12-3/13
James Worron
A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.
Errm
GOP not filed there ?!
Edit:
The seat has been held by Democrat Mike Doyle since 1995. In the 2006 election, he faced Green Party candidate Titus North and returned to the house with 90% of the vote.
Perhaps no point if it doesn't affect the presidential race. Does it ?
https://twitter.com/MashableNews/status/709449644971917312
Absent a complete Trump sweep the anti-Trump forces will simply soldier on.
The longer the GOP primary goes on the larger the margin of victory for the Democrats.
No, as Jonathan Portes said, Cameron knew the NI stats, which he used to show the number of immigrants claiming benefits, so he must also know how many are paying tax. It is a fact that the government know the real numbers, but don't release them
Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum
Relying on Corbyn being unelectable is all very well if the Tories stay united under Cameron or Osborne but disunited the unattractively vain Boris Johnson and a Labour victory becomes extremely likely.
The anti Trump forces will always soldier on as their concerns are unAmerican and have nothing to do with normal electoral politics. It matters not though as they have already been shown to be paper tigers. Its the same carp that we get in this country with the constant sniping, smearing and undermining of Corbyn which has had so little impact.
Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum
Didn't ICM get 2015 wrong because it weighted down people who recalled voting UKIP last time? Because very few people actually did vote for the party in 2010, and people remembered local and European elections, it resulted in dramatic (and incorrect) down-weighting.
As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.
He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.
In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
Result: winner Democrats.
It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
I am not sure that I agree on BoJo vs. Corbyn, but do think if Labour were to find a popular leader it could be competitive.
1. Uber.
2. Heathrow expansion.
All other policies are merely window dressing.
1. With Rubio scrapping just above 0 and heavy tactical voting for Kasich.
2. Plus that the Ohio GOP is working heavily to deliver the state for him.
3. Plus that Trump needs to lead by at least 5 points in the polls in order to compensate for late deciders.
4. Plus that the riots and the debate seem to not have moved Trump up.
With all that it's a mystery for me why Trump is still campaigning in Florida when he should be in Ohio.
The only negative for Kasich is that he is campaigning today with Romney, and Ohio republicans hate Romney (by 33/50).
As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.
A decent number of people rather than a number of decent people!
http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/article/what-election-bettors-can-learn-from-pro-sports-modellers/
Simple math plus a simple look around the anti-Trump forces to see what they are plotting is enough.
He is wasting time kicking a dead horse (Rubio).
It is good for
(a) the poor from poor countries (fair enough),
& (b) the rich from rich countries (not so good),
but this relies on
(c)it is bad for the poor from rich countries (absolute filth)
That is the argument in a nutshell.. what are the poor from rich countries meant to do? Suck it up and keep schtum while they see everyone getting richer at their expense? Or mention it and get called names by the rich that are profiting from their misery?
If (a) & (c) profited, and it were bad for (b), I would accept it, but of course then it wouldn't happen
So I haven't bothered to read his article.
As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.
I did a piece on it, phone pollsters under estimated UKIP for that reason. Most online pollsters over estimated UKIP because they included too many 2010 non voters
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/
Trump and Kasich lead the field in Ohio with 38 percent support each among likely Republican voters, followed by Ted Cruz at 16 percent and Rubio at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/poll-ohio-florida-gop-220710?lo=ap_c2
This means that there has been a late Trump surge in Ohio. Love that state, it was there that the War of Independence was won by the Yanks.
Not nice when that happens is it?
...and yet Tom is still happy to keep paying his subs.
Bradford is not what I expected at all. A well laid out City Centre not unlike Liverpool with several galleries cafes restaurants and theaters. Interesting also the huge density of Muslims. Far greater than anywhere else I've been to in the UK. Generally a very colourful place
Cannot. Breath
Only in The Guardian.... https://t.co/H7eRwNSo35
* With a low probability.
Uber has changed - for the better - more lives than any politicians has in living memory. To have the two leading candidates for mayor in hock to vested interests is utterly disgusting. They should be ashamed of themselves.
Trump 53 +9
Cruz 22 +1
Kasich 11 +2
Rubio 10 -7
I don't believe this poll, if it's accurate then Trump has to score close or above 50% at some states tomorrow, and there is little evidence that Rubio's support has gone to Trump in the state polls.
He'd rightly rather remove Rubio from contention in the more industrial, Catholic and mainline-Protestant, winner-take-all states
In the grand scheme of things, 66 delegates to Kasich are a lot to give up on though.
At this rate Hope Not Hate will be holding a protest outside the Labour Party conference later this year https://t.co/ffSg4px60h