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System Posts: 12,578
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predict the outcome of May’s London Mayoral Election in the latest PB Prize Competition

Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Khan to win
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Blimey, this must be one of the toughest PB prediction calls ever, imho.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Gutted there wasn't an option for Winston McKenzie in this
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    Nice prize
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Disaster
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Khan will win. Ecoboy doesn't have the universal appeal of BoJo.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is total guess territory for me.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Kasich on/off the PA ballot?

    'Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s own lawyer agrees the presidential campaign submitted fewer valid signatures than are required for the candidate to appear on Pennsylvania’s primary ballot. But he argued in court Wednesday that it doesn’t matter because an objection to Mr. Kasich’s nominating petitions was filed 13 minutes too late...'
    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/14/will-john-kasich-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-pennsylvania-primary/
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SimonStClare said:

    Blimey, this must be one of the toughest PB prediction calls ever, imho.

    Agreed. Not really sure of where to start. I console myself with the thought that when I thought I did know where to start I have never got really close to winning anyway.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Crosby's padwan to beat Babar's mate by 5 points.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No EU polls for more than a week, and only 4 over the last 2 weeks. What's going on?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Zac is a wonderful value loser in the betting markets right now.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SimonStClare said:

    Blimey, this must be one of the toughest PB prediction calls ever, imho.

    This will reflect very poorly on my predictive skills if I turn out wrong, but I don't think so. Khan seems, to date, to be regarded as broadly acceptable by Corbynite and moderate Labour votes alike, and with Zak fairly or not unlikely to appeal as much as Boris to non-Tories, Khan should walk it so long as he doesn't become unacceptable to either wing.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    RodCrosby said:

    Kasich on/off the PA ballot?

    'Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s own lawyer agrees the presidential campaign submitted fewer valid signatures than are required for the candidate to appear on Pennsylvania’s primary ballot. But he argued in court Wednesday that it doesn’t matter because an objection to Mr. Kasich’s nominating petitions was filed 13 minutes too late...'
    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/14/will-john-kasich-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-pennsylvania-primary/

    Kasich's campaign is surely all about getting a decent cabinet position or VP in either a Cruz or (More likely) Trump presidency.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sam Wang: Trump needs to lose Ohio, to secure the nomination...
    http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump’s-chances-win-nomination
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    No EU polls for more than a week, and only 4 over the last 2 weeks. What's going on?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

    We should be getting two phone polls on it this week, plus the ICM online tracker.

    Since the polling disaster of last year not everyone is willing to pay for polling, especially given the divergence between the phone and online polls.

    We've had a Scottish EU ref poll in the last week though.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gutted there wasn't an option for Winston McKenzie in this

    As the only candidate backing Heathrow expansion, he may week get my (first) vote.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @sunny_hundal: Ken Livingstone is now a walking-talking disaster for the Labour party https://t.co/T55fnAx4dE
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Blimey, this must be one of the toughest PB prediction calls ever, imho.

    Agreed. Not really sure of where to start. I console myself with the thought that when I thought I did know where to start I have never got really close to winning anyway.
    Don't start by choosing a winner, imo.

    Start with GE2015 results for the London constituencies. Adjust them so they add up to 100 per cent. Now mess around with them on the basis of how you think the campaign is going, the referendum and the budget. Readjust them to 100 per cent. Enter.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Fascinating article from Matt Ridley on free trade and mercantilism. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4712369.ece
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Guido
    Labour's Vicki Kirby: "What do you know abt Jews? They've got big noses and support spurs" https://t.co/dXXpANoA2t https://t.co/cfkgUAJBC9
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Marie le Conte
    lololol the French are the EU citizens most likely to favour Brexit: https://t.co/L9D3zJaDMX https://t.co/pJlPNAoVdO
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    March 15 Dem (Tight) Primaries:

    Ohio:
    Clinton 46
    Sanders 41

    Illinois:
    Clinton 48
    Sanders 45

    Missouri:
    Sanders 47
    Clinton 46

    @ppppolls
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Quinnipiac poll of Ohio:

    Trump 38
    Kasich 38
    Cruz 16
    Rubio 3

    Of Florida [corrects order]:

    Trump 46
    Rubio 22
    Cruz 14
    Kasich 10
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Tampa for Trump
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rlz6cU8M-k
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Plato_Says said:

    Guido
    Labour's Vicki Kirby: "What do you know abt Jews? They've got big noses and support spurs" https://t.co/dXXpANoA2t https://t.co/cfkgUAJBC9

    She's either drunk or really stupid.
  • BigRich
    BigRich Posts: 3,492
    Plato_Says said:

    Fascinating article from Matt Ridley on free trade and mercantilism. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4712369.ece

    That article is probably the best thing I have read in any newspaper for many years! highly recommend.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Plato_Says said:

    March 15 Dem (Tight) Primaries:

    Ohio:
    Clinton 46
    Sanders 41

    Illinois:
    Clinton 48
    Sanders 45

    Missouri:
    Sanders 47
    Clinton 46

    @ppppolls

    Those look like glorious numbers for... Trump.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Stephen Wolf
    24% of congressional districts lack one of the major parties on the ballot in the 16 states where filing has closed https://t.co/VinCpbjpSL
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    edited March 2016
    Mr. Paris, both is possible.

    Cheers to Mr. Smithson, Mr. Hopkins and (presumably) Mr. Nelson for donating the prize.

    Mind you, £79 is a whopper of a price.

    Edited extra bit: I've decided not to enter, partly because I keep forgetting which e-mail address I used before, and mostly because I already have a ridiculous reading list (perhaps not helped by my decision to re-read a book that could eat Lord of the Rings twice and still have enough word count left to polish off The Hobbit).
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    edited March 2016
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    LondonBob said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the military to withdraw the "main part" of their forces in Syria, saying they had largely achieved their goals.

    Special forces and artillery that have been participating in the successful Latakia offensive will be withdrawn. S400 and the Tartous Naval Base (expansion) will stay to keep an eye on the Turks, Gulfies and Israelis. Air force will also carry on as before and training, technical advisers as well as equipment will continue to be supplied to the SAA.
    Good to get the Kremlin's official response....
    I am delighted the Russians are taking a much more active role in the Middle East, the Kremlin simply won't tolerate any lobbies to influence their foreign policy. Much like Corbyn, very admirable.

    No doubt a super patriot like you would agree?
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    PPP
    CORRECTION:
    Ohio Primaries

    GOP:
    Kasich 44%
    Trump 38
    Cruz 12
    Rubio 2

    DEM'S:
    Clinton 52%
    Sanders 45

    ARG 3/12-3/13
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited March 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    Stephen Wolf
    24% of congressional districts lack one of the major parties on the ballot in the 16 states where filing has closed https://t.co/VinCpbjpSL

    Pennsylvania's 14th congressional district includes the entire city of Pittsburgh and parts of surrounding suburbs.

    Errm

    GOP not filed there ?!

    Edit:

    The seat has been held by Democrat Mike Doyle since 1995. In the 2006 election, he faced Green Party candidate Titus North and returned to the house with 90% of the vote.

    Perhaps no point if it doesn't affect the presidential race. Does it ?
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited March 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    Guido
    Labour's Vicki Kirby: "What do you know abt Jews? They've got big noses and support spurs" https://t.co/dXXpANoA2t https://t.co/cfkgUAJBC9

    Time for plod to intervene. Labour should purge the party of all the anti-Semites. They won't though because anti-Semitism is deeply engrained in the party.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2016
    https://twitter.com/Chlanandria/status/709448030957735942
    https://twitter.com/MashableNews/status/709449644971917312
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    er kommt mit Palin!
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Does my entry before the thread came down still stand or do I have to put it in again ?
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Palin calling for Revolution.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    RodCrosby said:

    https://twitter.com/Chlanandria/status/709448030957735942
    https://twitter.com/MashableNews/status/709449644971917312

    Please hold a rally sign above your head and start chanting "Trump", "Trump", "Trump" till the protester is removed.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Christie there too...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Absent a complete Trump sweep the anti-Trump forces will simply soldier on.
    The longer the GOP primary goes on the larger the margin of victory for the Democrats.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    No EU polls for more than a week, and only 4 over the last 2 weeks. What's going on?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

    Scottish Indy ref polling was equally sparse, at one point there was a week where there was twice as many 2015 GE polls than IndyRef polls.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    BannedInParis said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Guido
    Labour's Vicki Kirby: "What do you know abt Jews? They've got big noses and support spurs" https://t.co/dXXpANoA2t https://t.co/cfkgUAJBC9

    She's either drunk or really stupid.
    Why excuse her? Maybe she has horrible views. Anti-Semitism may have been described as the socialism of fools but we should not make the mistake of assuming that because someone has horrible views they are stupid or doing so under some incapacity. Intelligent people are well able - as history shows only too clearly - of believing some really ghastly things.

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    FPT
    Richard_Nabavi said:
    » show previous quotes
    It is certainly the case that the immigration statistics are a complete mess. It is very frustrating trying to get basic information out of their tables and reports. But that is a different point.

    No, as Jonathan Portes said, Cameron knew the NI stats, which he used to show the number of immigrants claiming benefits, so he must also know how many are paying tax. It is a fact that the government know the real numbers, but don't release them
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Fascinating GOP race will be won tomorrow by Trump. Or not.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2016
    FPT
    Sean_F said:
    » show previous quotes

    11% is actually quite high for UKIP with ICM.
    Playing the UKIP overs in ICMs last poll (11%?) before the election was a small (rare) winning EVS bet for me against a PBer

    Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    So the fightback has begun! Labour now level pegging. This'll either be a wake up call or the start of a countdown to a repeat of '97.

    Relying on Corbyn being unelectable is all very well if the Tories stay united under Cameron or Osborne but disunited the unattractively vain Boris Johnson and a Labour victory becomes extremely likely.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Absent a complete Trump sweep the anti-Trump forces will simply soldier on.
    The longer the GOP primary goes on the larger the margin of victory for the Democrats.

    Still a toss up with both looking like they are in the very high 30s, however I agree Kasich has the edge.

    The anti Trump forces will always soldier on as their concerns are unAmerican and have nothing to do with normal electoral politics. It matters not though as they have already been shown to be paper tigers. Its the same carp that we get in this country with the constant sniping, smearing and undermining of Corbyn which has had so little impact.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    isam said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:
    » show previous quotes

    11% is actually quite high for UKIP with ICM.
    Playing the UKIP overs in ICMs last poll (11%?) before the election was a small (rare) winning EVS bet for me against a PBer

    Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum

    Didn't ICM get 2015 wrong because it weighted down people who recalled voting UKIP last time? Because very few people actually did vote for the party in 2010, and people remembered local and European elections, it resulted in dramatic (and incorrect) down-weighting.

    As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
    Strategically it's bad news for Trump.
    He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.

    In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
    Result: winner Democrats.

    It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Is it me, or have hundreds of comments disappeared? Or has the thread order changed? Or am I just confused?
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Although it seems to be the case that Labour voters won't desert Khan in London, he is likely to be the next Mayor, but Khan is not well liked within the party itself. For example, in Merton, Labour are not canvassing for him, rather they are doing 'Stronger In' leaflet drops. Zac hasn't turned anyone over to him. And now that that Selfish cusser Cameron has brought forward his EU refer, Lononders are not focussed on the real issues. So, Zac is not getting the band width. Very depressing but Khan is favourite. If PM could stop attacking his own side and shut up then Zac has a 40% chance. If the election is tomorrow then it is no more than 10%.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
    Strategically it's bad news for Trump.
    He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.

    In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
    Result: winner Democrats.

    It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
    Of course *we* know that. Did you read Wang's article?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Roger said:

    So the fightback has begun! Labour now level pegging. This'll either be a wake up call or the start of a countdown to a repeat of '97.

    Relying on Corbyn being unelectable is all very well if the Tories stay united under Cameron or Osborne but disunited the unattractively vain Boris Johnson and a Labour victory becomes extremely likely.

    Just feels like the govts honeymoon is over and the rollercoaster of mid term expectations has begun.

    I am not sure that I agree on BoJo vs. Corbyn, but do think if Labour were to find a popular leader it could be competitive.
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    Sorry, my computer's gone belly up. So, even though the party don't; support Khan, the oublic aren't excited by Zac. Khan is the box seat.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or have hundreds of comments disappeared? Or has the thread order changed? Or am I just confused?

    This thread was published earlier in the day, but then pulled due to a new Mayoral poll.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    SimonStClare said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Is it me, or have hundreds of comments disappeared? Or has the thread order changed? Or am I just confused?

    This thread was published earlier in the day, but then pulled due to a new Mayoral poll.
    OK. Well I stand by my support for any candidate that enthusiastically backs the following two things:

    1. Uber.
    2. Heathrow expansion.

    All other policies are merely window dressing.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    LondonBob said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Absent a complete Trump sweep the anti-Trump forces will simply soldier on.
    The longer the GOP primary goes on the larger the margin of victory for the Democrats.

    Still a toss up with both looking like they are in the very high 30s, however I agree Kasich has the edge.

    The anti Trump forces will always soldier on as their concerns are unAmerican and have nothing to do with normal electoral politics. It matters not though as they have already been shown to be paper tigers. Its the same carp that we get in this country with the constant sniping, smearing and undermining of Corbyn which has had so little impact.
    Ohio is not much of a toss up anymore.

    1. With Rubio scrapping just above 0 and heavy tactical voting for Kasich.
    2. Plus that the Ohio GOP is working heavily to deliver the state for him.
    3. Plus that Trump needs to lead by at least 5 points in the polls in order to compensate for late deciders.
    4. Plus that the riots and the debate seem to not have moved Trump up.

    With all that it's a mystery for me why Trump is still campaigning in Florida when he should be in Ohio.
    The only negative for Kasich is that he is campaigning today with Romney, and Ohio republicans hate Romney (by 33/50).
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:
    » show previous quotes

    11% is actually quite high for UKIP with ICM.
    Playing the UKIP overs in ICMs last poll (11%?) before the election was a small (rare) winning EVS bet for me against a PBer

    Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum
    Didn't ICM get 2015 wrong because it weighted down people who recalled voting UKIP last time? Because very few people actually did vote for the party in 2010, and people remembered local and European elections, it resulted in dramatic (and incorrect) down-weighting.

    As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.

    A decent number of people rather than a number of decent people!
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    @Tissue_Price linked to what I thought was a rather good article about polling and modelling from the Sports Trading Network the other day re the futility of over analysing polling, particularly by the pollsters themselves... remember Survation hiding a poll because it didnt look right?

    http://www.sportstradingnetwork.com/article/what-election-bettors-can-learn-from-pro-sports-modellers/
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This new tactic from Trump to get crowd to shout Trump Trump Trump to drown them out as they're removed is really working.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
    Strategically it's bad news for Trump.
    He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.

    In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
    Result: winner Democrats.

    It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
    Of course *we* know that. Did you read Wang's article?
    I don't need to know a Sam Wang to do the arithmetic for me.
    Simple math plus a simple look around the anti-Trump forces to see what they are plotting is enough.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited March 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Plato_Says said:

    This new tactic from Trump to get crowd to shout Trump Trump Trump to drown them out as they're removed is really working.

    He needs to be in Ohio though not Florida.
    He is wasting time kicking a dead horse (Rubio).
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    I'll go for the Hat Trick... while I was on my hiatus, I listened to an interesting chat w Amol Rajan and the bloke from Migration Watch on the Jeremy Vine show.. Rajan said something that really encapsulated why I disagree so vehemently w mass immigration

    It is good for

    (a) the poor from poor countries (fair enough),
    & (b) the rich from rich countries (not so good),

    but this relies on

    (c)it is bad for the poor from rich countries (absolute filth)

    That is the argument in a nutshell.. what are the poor from rich countries meant to do? Suck it up and keep schtum while they see everyone getting richer at their expense? Or mention it and get called names by the rich that are profiting from their misery?

    If (a) & (c) profited, and it were bad for (b), I would accept it, but of course then it wouldn't happen



  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
    Strategically it's bad news for Trump.
    He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.

    In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
    Result: winner Democrats.

    It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
    Of course *we* know that. Did you read Wang's article?
    I don't need to know a Sam Wang to do the arithmetic for me.
    Simple math plus a simple look around the anti-Trump forces to see what they are plotting is enough.
    You misunderstand, neither Pulps nor I express any confidence in Mr Wang's view
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Strategically that's great news for Trump though (According to Sam Wang)
    Strategically it's bad news for Trump.
    He needs those 66 delegates and to get rid of Kasich to demoralize the anti-Trump forces.

    In a 3 way race, strategic voting for Kasich in the east and for Cruz in the west is enough to deny Trump victory as long as Trump is bellow 40%, the result will be a nasty convention in which the GOP splinters in 3 pieces since no one will get what they want, except Romney of course.
    Result: winner Democrats.

    It's the logical end result of a very sickly organization that the Republicans have become, in that probably G.W. Bush maybe their last president ever.
    Of course *we* know that. Did you read Wang's article?
    I don't need to know a Sam Wang to do the arithmetic for me.
    Simple math plus a simple look around the anti-Trump forces to see what they are plotting is enough.
    You misunderstand, neither Pulps nor I express any confidence in Mr Wang's view
    Well neither do I.

    So I haven't bothered to read his article.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    First sensible post from AntiFrank today. ;)
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    So the fightback has begun! Labour now level pegging. This'll either be a wake up call or the start of a countdown to a repeat of '97.

    Relying on Corbyn being unelectable is all very well if the Tories stay united under Cameron or Osborne but disunited the unattractively vain Boris Johnson and a Labour victory becomes extremely likely.

    Just feels like the govts honeymoon is over and the rollercoaster of mid term expectations has begun.

    I am not sure that I agree on BoJo vs. Corbyn, but do think if Labour were to find a popular leader it could be competitive.
    I used to like him but now all I can see is a vain obnoxious nob. I wouldn't put any money on his popularity lasting. Corbyn at least looks like he's concerned about other people than himself
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    Yes the modern Corbyn Party seems United in its antisemitism rather than divided.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    FPT

    Sean_F said:
    » show previous quotes

    11% is actually quite high for UKIP with ICM.
    Playing the UKIP overs in ICMs last poll (11%?) before the election was a small (rare) winning EVS bet for me against a PBer

    Strangely that same PBer, who shall remain nameless, now says he or she always knew UKIP would get around 12-13% but be done in by FPTP... I know different, but ho hum
    Didn't ICM get 2015 wrong because it weighted down people who recalled voting UKIP last time? Because very few people actually did vote for the party in 2010, and people remembered local and European elections, it resulted in dramatic (and incorrect) down-weighting.

    As a decent number of people voted for UKIP in 2015, that effect should now be behind us.

    I did a piece on it, phone pollsters under estimated UKIP for that reason. Most online pollsters over estimated UKIP because they included too many 2010 non voters


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/10/so-were-there-really-shy-kippers/
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
    When has he ever sad he is anti-business? Absurd
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2016
    Donald Trump and John Kasich are tied in Ohio, but the New York billionaire maintains a massive lead over home-state Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida heading into Tuesday’s primaries, according to a Quinnipiac poll published Monday.

    Trump and Kasich lead the field in Ohio with 38 percent support each among likely Republican voters, followed by Ted Cruz at 16 percent and Rubio at 3 percent with 4 percent undecided.

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/poll-ohio-florida-gop-220710?lo=ap_c2

    This means that there has been a late Trump surge in Ohio. Love that state, it was there that the War of Independence was won by the Yanks.

  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tom Harris http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12193925/The-Labour-Party-is-increasingly-anti-Semitic.html
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    Yes the modern Corbyn Party seems United in its antisemitism rather than divided.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
    When has he ever sad he is anti-business? Absurd
    He is anti-Uber and anti-Heathrow expansion. How much more anti-business would you like?
  • Dixie
    Dixie Posts: 1,221
    A vote for Khan is a vote for massive increases in Council tax precept - 153% under Ken, and Unions with an office in City hall. That's what Khan has said. We will be goners. Vote blue for a boring life at least.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    Yes the modern Corbyn Party seems United in its antisemitism rather than divided.
    Equal stupidest.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,094
    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    It does feel like some nasty comments/individuals are being used to paint the party as racist.

    Not nice when that happens is it?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Plato_Says said:

    Tom Harris http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12193925/The-Labour-Party-is-increasingly-anti-Semitic.html

    @GuidoFawkes: LISTEN: @wesstreeting on Labour members cutting up membership cards https://t.co/6KiasigC21 https://t.co/e8jyJyVNVh

    ...and yet Tom is still happy to keep paying his subs.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2016
    Completely OT. I had reason to go to the National Media Museum in Bradford. For anyone living nearby I can really recommend it. It's supposed to be moving to the V&A which seems a shame for Bradford though several of the great and the good are trying to keep it where it is.

    Bradford is not what I expected at all. A well laid out City Centre not unlike Liverpool with several galleries cafes restaurants and theaters. Interesting also the huge density of Muslims. Far greater than anywhere else I've been to in the UK. Generally a very colourful place
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Bwahaha

    Cannot. Breath
    Only in The Guardian.... https://t.co/H7eRwNSo35
  • NorfolkTilIDie
    NorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
    When has he ever sad he is anti-business? Absurd
    He is anti-Uber and anti-Heathrow expansion. How much more anti-business would you like?
    There's nothing anti-business in believing minimum safety standards and pollution limits should be met.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Dixie said:

    A vote for Khan is a vote for massive increases in Council tax precept - 153% under Ken, and Unions with an office in City hall. That's what Khan has said. We will be goners. Vote blue for a boring life at least.

    I'm not voting for the least worst option. If you are not in favour of Heathrow expansion and Uber, then - as far as I am concerned - you are not worthy of my vote.
  • Toms
    Toms Posts: 2,478
    Wanderer said:

    Nice prize

    It'll be mine.*

    * With a low probability.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
    When has he ever sad he is anti-business? Absurd
    He is anti-Uber and anti-Heathrow expansion. How much more anti-business would you like?
    There's nothing anti-business in believing minimum safety standards and pollution limits should be met.
    Uber drivers are subject to the same rules and regulations as any mini cab driver. In fact, the vast majority of them are ex-mini cab drivers, who prefer to take 85% of a smaller fare rather than 50% of a larger one.

    Uber has changed - for the better - more lives than any politicians has in living memory. To have the two leading candidates for mayor in hock to vested interests is utterly disgusting. They should be ashamed of themselves.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/03/14/trump-rises-national-support-rubio-falls-and-carso/

    Trump 53 +9
    Cruz 22 +1
    Kasich 11 +2
    Rubio 10 -7

    I don't believe this poll, if it's accurate then Trump has to score close or above 50% at some states tomorrow, and there is little evidence that Rubio's support has gone to Trump in the state polls.
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I had reason to go to the National Media Museum in Bradford. For anyone living nearby I can really recommend it. It's supposed to be moving to the V&A which seems a shame for Bradford though several of the great and the good are trying to keep it where it is.

    Bradford is not what I expected at all. A well laid out City Centre not unlike Liverpool with several galleries cafes restaurants and theaters. Interesting also the huge density of Muslims. Far greater than anywhere else I've been to in the UK. Generally a very colourful place

    More mosques than Liverpool I think.

  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    It does feel like some nasty comments/individuals are being used to paint the party as racist.

    Not nice when that happens is it?
    No it isn't and it's invariably from people who have pretty suspect views themselves. I don't want to get into it.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    perdix said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I had reason to go to the National Media Museum in Bradford. For anyone living nearby I can really recommend it. It's supposed to be moving to the V&A which seems a shame for Bradford though several of the great and the good are trying to keep it where it is.

    Bradford is not what I expected at all. A well laid out City Centre not unlike Liverpool with several galleries cafes restaurants and theaters. Interesting also the huge density of Muslims. Far greater than anywhere else I've been to in the UK. Generally a very colourful place

    More mosques than Liverpool I think.

    I'm sure. I was only comparing the look with liverpool. The ethnic mix seems very different
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Speedy said:

    LondonBob said:

    Speedy said:

    Can't see how Trump wins Ohio, tactical voting has worked brilliantly for Kasich.

    Absent a complete Trump sweep the anti-Trump forces will simply soldier on.
    The longer the GOP primary goes on the larger the margin of victory for the Democrats.

    Still a toss up with both looking like they are in the very high 30s, however I agree Kasich has the edge.

    The anti Trump forces will always soldier on as their concerns are unAmerican and have nothing to do with normal electoral politics. It matters not though as they have already been shown to be paper tigers. Its the same carp that we get in this country with the constant sniping, smearing and undermining of Corbyn which has had so little impact.
    Ohio is not much of a toss up anymore.

    1. With Rubio scrapping just above 0 and heavy tactical voting for Kasich.
    2. Plus that the Ohio GOP is working heavily to deliver the state for him.
    3. Plus that Trump needs to lead by at least 5 points in the polls in order to compensate for late deciders.
    4. Plus that the riots and the debate seem to not have moved Trump up.

    With all that it's a mystery for me why Trump is still campaigning in Florida when he should be in Ohio.
    The only negative for Kasich is that he is campaigning today with Romney, and Ohio republicans hate Romney (by 33/50).
    Trump has been running a crucify-Rubio strategy for months.
    He'd rightly rather remove Rubio from contention in the more industrial, Catholic and mainline-Protestant, winner-take-all states
    In the grand scheme of things, 66 delegates to Kasich are a lot to give up on though.
  • NorfolkTilIDie
    NorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I am currently planning to spoil my ballot paper. The whole lot of them look useless and I can't dignify any of them with my vote.

    Sadly, I increasingly share your view. It is incomprehensible to me that the Conservative Party has chosen someone so appallingly anti-business.
    When has he ever sad he is anti-business? Absurd
    He is anti-Uber and anti-Heathrow expansion. How much more anti-business would you like?
    There's nothing anti-business in believing minimum safety standards and pollution limits should be met.
    Uber drivers are subject to the same rules and regulations as any mini cab driver. In fact, the vast majority of them are ex-mini cab drivers, who prefer to take 85% of a smaller fare rather than 50% of a larger one.

    Uber has changed - for the better - more lives than any politicians has in living memory. To have the two leading candidates for mayor in hock to vested interests is utterly disgusting. They should be ashamed of themselves.
    I've got no problem with different fare limits and ratios. What I object to is Uber pretending its drivers are not really employees when they limit them from taking fares outside their system, and thus not giving the appropriate employee protections or taking liability responsibilities.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    perdix said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I had reason to go to the National Media Museum in Bradford. For anyone living nearby I can really recommend it. It's supposed to be moving to the V&A which seems a shame for Bradford though several of the great and the good are trying to keep it where it is.

    Bradford is not what I expected at all. A well laid out City Centre not unlike Liverpool with several galleries cafes restaurants and theaters. Interesting also the huge density of Muslims. Far greater than anywhere else I've been to in the UK. Generally a very colourful place

    More mosques than Liverpool I think.

    Although we had the first, opened on Christmas Day 1889...
  • Toms
    Toms Posts: 2,478
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I had reason to go to the National Media Museum in Bradford. For anyone living nearby I can really recommend it. It's supposed to be moving to the V&A which seems a shame for Bradford though several of the great and the good are trying to keep it where it is.

    The Black Country living museum, Dudley, is rather interesting too, especially if one's got kids in tow, or me.
  • Plato_Says
    Plato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Labour Maquis
    At this rate Hope Not Hate will be holding a protest outside the Labour Party conference later this year https://t.co/ffSg4px60h
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    LondonBob said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    LondonBob said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the military to withdraw the "main part" of their forces in Syria, saying they had largely achieved their goals.

    Special forces and artillery that have been participating in the successful Latakia offensive will be withdrawn. S400 and the Tartous Naval Base (expansion) will stay to keep an eye on the Turks, Gulfies and Israelis. Air force will also carry on as before and training, technical advisers as well as equipment will continue to be supplied to the SAA.
    Good to get the Kremlin's official response....
    I am delighted the Russians are taking a much more active role in the Middle East, the Kremlin simply won't tolerate any lobbies to influence their foreign policy. Much like Corbyn, very admirable.

    No doubt a super patriot like you would agree?
    The Kremlin kills off all lobbies. Jail or shot down in the street or polonium in the tea.

  • NorfolkTilIDie
    NorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Roger said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Roger said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Ouch

    James Worron
    A party that's divided on Europe vs one divided on hating Jews isn't really a contest.

    Stupidest comment of the day
    It does feel like some nasty comments/individuals are being used to paint the party as racist.

    Not nice when that happens is it?
    No it isn't and it's invariably from people who have pretty suspect views themselves. I don't want to get into it.
    You have done the same thing with the Leave campaign on several occasions.
This discussion has been closed.

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