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2nd.

George and Boris are both lays, imo.

Too many candidates members would prefer to George. Too many candidates MPs will see as safer than Boris. Both are dependent on a particular referendum result and both are vulnerable to sheer passage of time if Cameron doesn't go soon.

Moses_ said:

FPT
"Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment."

Never managed to achieve it on an I phone. On IPad I can log in only with chrome ?

I click on someone's username and log in on the vanilla website. That seems to stick.

FPT:

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

Yes, I've heard that might be a problem if they decide to cascade the 91s. The somewhat curvaceous nature of the MML might favour updated Pendelinos (tilting trains), but I don't know if there will be enough sets required for a brand-new train type.

Otherwise, an extension to the IEP order. But I dislike the IEP as it is - the whole IEP project might be a disaster for the railways. Perhaps.

What are your concerns about IEP? I really don't think much of the bi mode idea. Someone was telling me that it won't take long for the trains carrying fuel to have wasted enough energy to have funded the electrification of lines beyond what is planed for the GWML and ECML.

tlg86 said:

FPT:

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

Yes, I've heard that might be a problem if they decide to cascade the 91s. The somewhat curvaceous nature of the MML might favour updated Pendelinos (tilting trains), but I don't know if there will be enough sets required for a brand-new train type.

Otherwise, an extension to the IEP order. But I dislike the IEP as it is - the whole IEP project might be a disaster for the railways. Perhaps.

What are your concerns about IEP? I really don't think much of the bi mode idea. Someone was telling me that it won't take long for the trains carrying fuel to have wasted enough energy to have funded the electrification of lines beyond what is planed for the GWML and ECML.

My reply FPT:

Someone may have told you wrong given the cost rises of the GWML electrification ...

My problem with the IEP project are based on several things. Firstly, since privatisation we've had the rather good idea of letting the customers (TOCs) specify the trains they want, and then organise their purchase by the ROSCOs, from whom they are leased. The IEP was specified by the Department of Transport in intimate detail, without much TOC input.

Secondly, the financials are complex, even by the standards of the privatised railways.

Thirdly, when the contract changed due to electrification plans and (I think) Hitachi admitting they could not reach the original agreed specifications, the contract was not reopened to all bidders. Instead Hitachi got to deliver less for more money.

The taxpayer and passenger may well end up paying for the IEP project in many ways.

https://www.nao.org.uk/report/procuring-new-trains-2/

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

RodCrosby said:

Trump speaking amid a praetorian guard...

Crickey you are not kidding. Specific threat or Trump doing his WWE routine?

LOL at Little Marco and Lying Ted

JosiasJessop said:

Wanderer said:

FTP

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Merkel is a classic example of the road to hell being paved with good intentions. She is directly responsible for the deaths of migrants who she has encouraged to make dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean and she has made the migrant crisis far worse by her criminally idiotic behavior than if she had said nothing at all.

The one person who has come out of this crisis well is Cameron who made exactly the right call on how the migrants could best be helped and who has been doing something concrete and practical rather than pandering to the thoughtless 'something must be done' brigade of which you are a perfect example.

Merkel's approach was very emotional and appears heartfelt, even if her decision may have been a consequence of Germany's history. Cameron's approach was very cold and logical. I have no doubt that they both considered the other approach, as well as others.

Yet it appears that Cameron's strategy was correct. If Merkel had done the same then many more lives might have been saved, at least in the short term.

If you think Cameron took the right line on this then you need to give him a fair amount of credit for it as it wasn't an easy decision politically. (It looks a lot easier now than it was late last summer after Aylan Kurdi's death. The public wants to limit migration but it also wants to feel good about itself.)

Indeed, and I said so at the time. It is notable that Mr Tyndall, who is hardly a Cameron fan, also says Cameron got this issue right.

Although I'm a bit of a Cameron fan. He's far from perfect and has made mistakes, but he;s far better than his detractors say. A factor that's probably aided him, as his enemies always underestimate him. Witness last May.

(dons coat)

I cannot go to far in my praise for Cameron over the migration issue. It goes much further back than last year as well. Just look at the amount of money the UK and the US were prepared to invest in the camps around Syria, notably in Turkey and Jordan, compared to the amount of money the EU and the rest of the first world were spending. Prior to the whole thing blowing up last summer the UK had put in more money into the refugee relief on its own than the whole of the rest of the EU put together.

Cameron has led from the front on this issue every step of the way and his decisions have been both humane and practical without being shouted from the rooftops. It is a huge shame Merkel and other leaders have not shown the same sense on this issue.

Of course I think he is an absolute stinker on other issues, most particularly the EU but that should in no way detract from his behaviour regarding the migration crisis.

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

RodCrosby said:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMAt-B89k88

It is worth watching these rallies, if only for a minute or two, to get a feel for the kind of rapport Trump has with his supporters.

JackW said:

RodCrosby said:

Trump speaking amid a praetorian guard...

Beware the ides of March

Ha! Indeed.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

No betting opportunities. :P

LOL....he is really playing to the crowd now with calling for Pete Rose to get MLB Hall of Fame.

Richard Tyndall, agreed. Cameron has handled the migration crisis very well.

Sean_F said:

Richard Tyndall, agreed. Cameron has handled the migration crisis very well.

Imagine if all countries had backed the process of only taking those from refugee camps after they had been properly checked out....and made it 100% clear that anybody who tries to come to Europe via other means will not be allowed to settle.

tlg86 said:

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

Why is Gatwick Express even necessary? There is a good, cheap and almost as fast service using normal scheduled services. And they stop at Clapham Junction.

JohnLilburne said:

tlg86 said:

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

Why is Gatwick Express even necessary? There is a good, cheap and almost as fast service using normal scheduled services. And they stop at Clapham Junction.

Since last December every other Gatwick Express goes on to Brighton. As I understand it you can use these trains like any other trains between Brighton and Gatwick but they become the more expensive train to Victoria.

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

I read it and enjoyed it. Sometimes folk don't say much because they don't know enough to add more.

tlg86 said:

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

AIUI Bi-mode will also be needed for the Cornwall route, as the wires will end at Bristol. Although as far as I'm aware it's not been decided what stock will be used southwest of Bristol.

Some people (and I've no idea if this is right) claim that the IEP might not have the range under diesel power to reach Penzance in some circumstances. I've no idea if that's true, but given the gradients on that line I wouldn't be surprised.

Personally I'd upgrade a few HSTs (e.g. make them comply with the new disability rules) and use them. They're classy.

NorfolkTilIDie said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

I read it and enjoyed it. Sometimes folk don't say much because they don't know enough to add more.

We need the Like button back ...

NorfolkTilIDie said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

I read it and enjoyed it. Sometimes folk don't say much because they don't know enough to add more.

I read it, too, and found it interesting. Thanks.

tlg86 said:

I've just watched Andrew Neil's interview with Nicola Sturgeon. No wonder Cameron and co won't go near him, he absolutely ravaged her.

You must have been watching a special edited ENGLISH version. All the Zoomers who watched it reckon Neil got absolutely gubbed by Nicola

RodCrosby said:

Different persona tonight, sweet reasonableness.

Yeah, quite a change for you Rod.

Oh, wait, you meant Trump.

RodCrosby said:

Different persona tonight, sweet reasonableness.

Who ?

@MarkFoxNews: Now this IS a serious issue. https://t.co/t96O7Jv6wI

Crystal Methodist at it again...

Shamed ex Co-op boss Paul Flowers 'back on drugs' as he's filmed on bizarre four day bender

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/shamed-ex-co-op-boss-7547510

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

Looks like the AfD have been suffering from shy voter syndrome with the pollsters.

Their percentages have been climbing as more results come in

Yes, the AfD was clearly outperformed expectations, particularly in Saxony-Anhalt where the polls had them on 18-19%, and they got 24%.

While I am unimpressed by Cameron's handling of the EU, he has on the whole been quite a good PM. Like other long-serving PMs (Blair, Thatcher, Wilson, Macmillan, Churchill), he will prove a hard act to follow. All realistic potential successors fall seriously short in one or more of the qualities boxes a prospective PM needs to tick.

Greville Janner posed as children's home carer to abuse boy, inquiry told

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/13/greville-janner-posed-as-childrens-home-carer-to-abuse-boy-inquiry-told

tlg86 said:

JohnLilburne said:

tlg86 said:

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

Why is Gatwick Express even necessary? There is a good, cheap and almost as fast service using normal scheduled services. And they stop at Clapham Junction.

Since last December every other Gatwick Express goes on to Brighton. As I understand it you can use these trains like any other trains between Brighton and Gatwick but they become the more expensive train to Victoria.

I can understand you want them to be fast, but stopping at Clapham Junction would make them twice as useful

Have used my profits from the DC Caucus (h/t Pulpstar) to top up on Trump for POTUS (h/t Rod Crosby)

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hope yet for the human race...

Go grandmaster wins fourth showdown of five-match series against Google’s artificial intelligence, AlphaGo

Yes, perhaps when the machines win, they will still try to look out for us by letting us have a few wins.

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Sean_F said:

It looks like AFD will finish 3rd in Baden Wurtemberg. And will win a string of constituencies in Sachsen Anhalt.

I would point out that I posted a very decent primer on the German elections in one of the threads midweek.

That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]

Looks like the AfD have been suffering from shy voter syndrome with the pollsters.

Their percentages have been climbing as more results come in

Yes, the AfD was clearly outperformed expectations, particularly in Saxony-Anhalt where the polls had them on 18-19%, and they got 24%.

Surpeisingly the AfD are even topping the list of some of the bigger towns in BW - Mannheim and Pforzheim.

Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?

CBS/yougov

Florida

GOP
Trump 44
Rubio 21
Cruz 24
Kasich 9

Dems
Clinton 62
Sanders 34

Ohio

GOP
Trump 33
Kasich 33
Cruz 23
Rubio 5

Dems
Clinton 52
Sanders 43

Illinois

GOP
Trump 38
Cruz 34
Kasich 16
Rubio 11

Dems
Sanders 48
Clinton 46

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN

Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.

Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.

Yes but if we had PR UKIP could hold the balance of power too

Listen to Rubio. A man who has given up.

pic.twitter.com/8AS929Z0eP

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN

Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.

Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.

Yes but if we had PR UKIP could hold the balance of power too

Under PR we would have what most european governments have for many years now, a permanent Grand Coalition government with lots of left wing and right wing splinters.

Imagine a permanent Tory-Labour government under David Cameron that lasts forever.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Listen to Rubio. A man who has given up.

pic.twitter.com/8AS929Z0eP

https://twitter.com/NCPolAds/status/708978334009597952

Rubio and Jeb Bush are a waste of time and money, I've said it for years.

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

CBS/yougov

Florida

GOP
Trump 44
Rubio 21
Cruz 24
Kasich 9

Dems
Clinton 62
Sanders 34

Ohio

GOP
Trump 33
Kasich 33
Cruz 23
Rubio 5

Dems
Clinton 52
Sanders 43

Illinois

GOP
Trump 38
Cruz 34
Kasich 16
Rubio 11

Dems
Sanders 48
Clinton 46

Squeaky bum time for Hillary in the midwest.

We need post-Chicago riots Polls.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hope yet for the human race...

Go grandmaster wins fourth showdown of five-match series against Google’s artificial intelligence, AlphaGo

The computer is obviously relaxing as it has won the tournament.

weejonnie said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Hope yet for the human race...

Go grandmaster wins fourth showdown of five-match series against Google’s artificial intelligence, AlphaGo

The computer is obviously relaxing as it has won the tournament.

Perhaps they just turned it off, and the bloke from DeepMinds had a go instead...Wizard of Oz style :-)

tlg86 said:

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

Thanks for that Mr Jessop - I think the point about bi mode was more applicable to running trains north of Edinburgh. Personally I don't think there is a need to have direct trains between London and Aberdeen/Inverness, but apparently if people have to change trains that makes them much less likely to make the journey. If that is the case, why can't we drag the electrics using a diesel locomotive? Bi-mode just seems a silly solution to an overstated problem.

On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.

Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!

AIUI Bi-mode will also be needed for the Cornwall route, as the wires will end at Bristol. Although as far as I'm aware it's not been decided what stock will be used southwest of Bristol.

Some people (and I've no idea if this is right) claim that the IEP might not have the range under diesel power to reach Penzance in some circumstances. I've no idea if that's true, but given the gradients on that line I wouldn't be surprised.

Personally I'd upgrade a few HSTs (e.g. make them comply with the new disability rules) and use them. They're classy.

I think GWR have procured 29 Hitachi AT300s (designated as Class 802s) for the Devon and Cornwall services. I believe there was a suspicion that the standard bi mode (800s) might struggle with the South Devon Banks such as Dainton and Rattery.

EDIT: On HSTs I think this is one of the big issues with the GWEP overrun. The disability rules are changing and the HSTs need to go before then.

I believe that ScotRail will be getting some cascaded HSTs so they will still be in use after the IEPs come in. I also read that GWR were testing short formation HSTs on the Cardiff to Portsmouth route. I know many people who have used that route regularly and it is crying out for better trains so hopefully some HSTs can continue in England after the IEPs come in.

Ah, thanks. It appears my knowledge was well out of date!

I see the 802's are going to be built at an Italian factory which, if I recall some conversations correctly, does not hold the record for the best build quality (though they've been taken over by Hitachi since then).

I really don't like the bi-mode idea.

Florida is the one state I confidently predict Hillary will win on Tuesday.

Full of old people, so not much room to feel the Bern.

I've backed Bernie in Ohio, it'd be delicious for Hillary to lose her home state of Illinois.

Pulpstar said:

Florida is the one state I confidently predict Hillary will win on Tuesday.

Full of old people, so not much room to feel the Bern.

I've backed Bernie in Ohio, it'd be delicious for Hillary to lose her home state of Illinois.

Full of old people, especially this time of year. The great snow bird migration.

MaxPB said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN

Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.

Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.

No, in Saxony-Anhalt the exit poll points to 56 seats for CDU/SPD/FDP, it gets them over the line.

Baden-Weurttemburg is the interesting one, the current coalition is Green/SPD. That doesn't get across the line any more because AfD have surged. I would be surprised if the FDP get into bed with such a coalition to get them over the line so it means the CDU are going to have to give way locally and not exercise their power.

They need 61 not 56, they have a 122 seat parliament according to the FAZ projections.