No it is nothing to do with a deal with Schengen. It is a basic principle of the EU that anyone who has a legal right to be in the EU has a right to be anywhere within the EU. It is the fundamental principle of freedom of movement. I am not sure if or how the UK has an opt out of any deal that is done with Turkey on visa free travel.
This is very incorrect. As an example, a Russian citizen who is a legal resident somewhere in the Schengen zone and lives and works there has no right to enter the UK without a UK visa.
Correct. This is why my parents in law have never visited me, as he is a Russian citizen.
One way to read the local German election results is in a pure anti-immigrant pro-immigrant axis.
In Baden the anti-immigrants up 15%, the pro-immigrants down 13%. In Rheinland anti-immigrants up 12.5, pro-immigrants down 10.5. In Saxony anti-immigrants up 24.5, pro-immigrants down 22.5.
Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN
Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.
Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.
No, in Saxony-Anhalt the exit poll points to 56 seats for CDU/SPD/FDP, it gets them over the line.
Baden-Weurttemburg is the interesting one, the current coalition is Green/SPD. That doesn't get across the line any more because AfD have surged. I would be surprised if the FDP get into bed with such a coalition to get them over the line so it means the CDU are going to have to give way locally and not exercise their power.
They need 61 not 56, they have a 122 seat parliament according to the FAZ projections.
One way to read the local German election results is in a pure anti-immigrant pro-immigrant axis.
In Baden the anti-immigrants up 15%, the pro-immigrants down 13%. In Rheinland anti-immigrants up 12.5, pro-immigrants down 10.5. In Saxony anti-immigrants up 24.5, pro-immigrants down 22.5.
It's almost like the government of Angela Merkel did something that was incredibly unpopular with the people.
Probably, I was banned last week and when I complained I was reinstated. I had literally done nothing, but if someone doesn't like you then they can chop you on a whim.
Probably, I was banned last week and when I complained I was reinstated. I had literally done nothing, but if someone doesn't like you then they can chop you on a whim.
AfD: 2 third places and 1 second place, beating the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt and within 5.7 points of the winner in the latter.
Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?
They've done best in the eastern Germany land which is by definition a lot poorer than western Germany.
Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?
They've done best in the eastern Germany land which is by definition a lot poorer than western Germany.
In terms of migrant relocation / levels of immigration, how does East vs West compare? Ie it is poorer areas that have seen lots of changes in their community or fear of change?
Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?
They've done best in the eastern Germany land which is by definition a lot poorer than western Germany.
In terms of migrant relocation / levels of immigration, how does East vs West compare? Ie it is poorer areas that have seen lots of changes in their community or fear of change?
Officially they've attempted to spread the migrants around the country although I don't know whether this is what has happened in practice.
Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?
They've done best in the eastern Germany land which is by definition a lot poorer than western Germany.
In terms of migrant relocation / levels of immigration, how does East vs West compare? Ie it is poorer areas that have seen lots of changes in their community or fear of change?
Officially they've attempted to spread the migrants around the country although I don't know whether this is what has happened in practice.
I think it's at least as much about those in the East feeling abandoned by the central government.
Rubio's position in Florida, Ohio and Illinois is so hopeless that one wonders whether he might drop out before polling day and endorse Kasich everywhere, (not just in Ohio).
Is there an correlation between the areas AfD are doing well in? i.e areas that have seen a lot of migrates being relocated there? are they poorer areas?
They've done best in the eastern Germany land which is by definition a lot poorer than western Germany.
In terms of migrant relocation / levels of immigration, how does East vs West compare? Ie it is poorer areas that have seen lots of changes in their community or fear of change?
Officially they've attempted to spread the migrants around the country although I don't know whether this is what has happened in practice.
I think that some of the migrants sent to the less salubrious parts just absconded and registered again. A considerable proportion of those arrested in Stuttgardt had been doubly registered. It all adds to the confusion as to how many and where the migrants have gone.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
It's really hard to see a workable coalition there: CDU + AfD is about the only thing that works, CDU + SPD + Green is short, as is Left + SPD + Green. If the FDP had made it over the threshold it would have become even more fragmented...
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
Sounds like clutching at straws from a BBC journalist. All the other centre-left and left-wing parties did appallingly.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
The Greens were the governing party in B-W before the elections, and went backwards - in vote share - in this election. So, Mr Hewitt is talking rubbish.
It's really hard to see a workable coalition there: CDU + AfD is about the only thing that works, CDU + SPD + Green is short, as is Left + SPD + Green. If the FDP had made it over the threshold it would have become even more fragmented...
The logical conclusion of any Grand Coalition is, that in the end support for the participants becomes so hollowed out, that they are unable to form any coalition.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
The Greens were the governing party in B-W before the elections, and went backwards - in vote share - in this election. So, Mr Hewitt is talking rubbish.
I am glad the BBC journos on good money are so well versed in German politics in order to bring us an accurate picture of the results....
It's really hard to see a workable coalition there: CDU + AfD is about the only thing that works, CDU + SPD + Green is short, as is Left + SPD + Green. If the FDP had made it over the threshold it would have become even more fragmented...
The logical conclusion of any Grand Coalition is, that in the end support for the participants becomes so hollowed out, that they are unable to form any coalition.
I think that's true of any coalition. The junior partners - the FDP last time round, and the SPD the time before - got punished for being in power with the CDU. The LibDems got hammered similarly.
More generally, as Nate Silver has persuasively argued, the party(ies) in power get gradually punished by the electorate. A grand coalition will naturally create space for alternatives.
The only place it doesn't seem as clear is the Netherlands, where coalitions with fewer than four parties seem pretty rare.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
The Greens were the governing party in B-W before the elections, and went backwards - in vote share - in this election. So, Mr Hewitt is talking rubbish.
I posted it here for the resources of real experts on here to check. BBC employ more journalists than any UK company, yet the quality of their fact checking is abysmal. Gavin Hewitt being a prime example. He was until late 2014 their Europe Editor for 5 years.....
"His top donors, who gathered in Miami Beach for a two-day retreat planned as a victory party, are now contemplating a desperate Plan B: which candidate or which group they might instead pool their resources behind to stop Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Rubio’s campaign, once hopeful that Florida would be the final stop on his road to the nomination, has gone from fighting for its life to just getting through the day."
"Mostly gone is the sunny optimism of those at his side throughout his deflating and exasperating run. They acknowledge that the end is probably near, and say they just want it to be as painless as possible."
"Mr. Arza diagnosed the real problem, in his view: the voters. “You have an upset electorate that is making an irrational decision based on where they are now,” he said. “Does it make sense? No.” "
I don't think his central arguments are necessarily proven, certainly not in the manner in which he claims.
The American view is very clear. Whether in code or en clair, the President will tell us all that UK membership of the EU is right for Britain, right for Europe, and right for America. And why? Because that – or so we will be told – is the only way we can have “influence” in the counsels of the nations.
It is an important argument, and deserves to be taken seriously. I also think it is wholly fallacious
I don't think it is demonstrably fallacious. There is a a debate to be had.
The Americans see the EU as a way of tidying up a continent whose conflicts have claimed huge numbers of American lives; as a bulwark against Russia, and they have always conceived it to be in American interests for the UK – their number one henchperson, their fidus Achates – to be deeply engaged.
As Hugo Rifkind argued the other day, this is also the view of vast number of continental Europeans, so Boris is wrong to claim this as a US concept.
But it is a well written article. It shows Boris is not the complete buffoon he portrays on TV.
I don't think his central arguments are necessarily proven, certainly not in the manner in which he claims.
The American view is very clear. Whether in code or en clair, the President will tell us all that UK membership of the EU is right for Britain, right for Europe, and right for America. And why? Because that – or so we will be told – is the only way we can have “influence” in the counsels of the nations.
It is an important argument, and deserves to be taken seriously. I also think it is wholly fallacious
I don't think it is demonstrably fallacious. There is a a debate to be had.
The Americans see the EU as a way of tidying up a continent whose conflicts have claimed huge numbers of American lives; as a bulwark against Russia, and they have always conceived it to be in American interests for the UK – their number one henchperson, their fidus Achates – to be deeply engaged.
As Hugo Rifkind argued the other day, this is also the view of vast number of continental Europeans, so Boris is wrong to claim this as a US concept.
But it is a well written article. It shows Boris is not the complete buffoon he portrays on TV.
I think Obama (and I suspect this would be true of Trump or any other US leader) would like a relatively strong and united Europe, to stand up to an expansionist Russia.
Sanders is ahead in Illinois in the latest poll, but he's 2.92 on Betfair - worth a trading bet at least (I've taken some at even longer odds).
Sanders is running against the Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel, who was also Obama's chief of staff.
Chicago is a mess of crime and gang warfare, more like a typical 70's american city, and residents are angry and have asked for the Mayor's resignation for a long time now.
Logically Sanders will benefit from that, however the Chicago riots could be a spanner since some of his groups were involved, so I'm not quite ready to call Illinois for Sanders before I see a post riot poll.
Well done the Mirror...it managed to read the Mail on Sunday and assume that David Laws second hand tale of historical events he wasn't present at could be true.
@BBCGavinHewitt Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
The Greens were the governing party in B-W before the elections, and went backwards - in vote share - in this election. So, Mr Hewitt is talking rubbish.
BBC looking through their rose-green tinted spectacles as usual.
You can't help but feel a bit sorry for him, he thought a successful euref campaign would catapult him into number 10 - yet he's ended up as the third-officer on a sinking ship.
Not quite sure where this AfD being a far-right party meme came from.
The AfD split about a year ago, losing a lot of their business friendly supporters, and becoming a more populist (almost FN) type party.
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
Go grandmaster wins fourth showdown of five-match series against Google’s artificial intelligence, AlphaGo
Yes, perhaps when the machines win, they will still try to look out for us by letting us have a few wins.
Was suggested by AC Clarke in 2001 - A Space Odyssey - not sure whether it is in the final draft or one of the earlier ones (The lost Worlds of 2001) (The book/film is 47 years old!)
Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN
Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.
Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.
No, in Saxony-Anhalt the exit poll points to 56 seats for CDU/SPD/FDP, it gets them over the line.
Baden-Weurttemburg is the interesting one, the current coalition is Green/SPD. That doesn't get across the line any more because AfD have surged. I would be surprised if the FDP get into bed with such a coalition to get them over the line so it means the CDU are going to have to give way locally and not exercise their power.
They need 61 not 56, they have a 122 seat parliament according to the FAZ projections.
Not quite sure where this AfD being a far-right party meme came from.
The AfD split about a year ago, losing a lot of their business friendly supporters, and becoming a more populist (almost FN) type party.
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
So basically, the same way BNP and UKIP are always categorized as extremist right wing and right wing, because of their views of immigration, when actually a lot of their policies are very left wing e.g. renationalization of all major infrastructure was a key plank of the BNP when they were going well.
You can't help but feel a bit sorry for him, he thought a successful euref campaign would catapult him into number 10 - yet he's ended up as the third-officer on a sinking ship.
You can't help but feel a bit sorry for him, he thought he was going to be captain at the battle that would catapult him into number 10 - yet he's ended up as the third-officer on a sinking ship.
Looks like a goog set of results for the Afd although they have a way to go yet to match UKIP and the FN
Actually due to the PR nature of the German system they are more successful.
Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.
No, in Saxony-Anhalt the exit poll points to 56 seats for CDU/SPD/FDP, it gets them over the line.
Baden-Weurttemburg is the interesting one, the current coalition is Green/SPD. That doesn't get across the line any more because AfD have surged. I would be surprised if the FDP get into bed with such a coalition to get them over the line so it means the CDU are going to have to give way locally and not exercise their power.
They need 61 not 56, they have a 122 seat parliament according to the FAZ projections.
Nick, I was talking to out mutual friend Mr. Dhunda this morning, he is standing against Livingstone for a place on the NEC. He has the support of the vast majority of MP's but thinks he will get swamped by the membership vote as they have moved so far Left.
Not quite sure where this AfD being a far-right party meme came from.
The AfD split about a year ago, losing a lot of their business friendly supporters, and becoming a more populist (almost FN) type party.
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
Not quite sure where this AfD being a far-right party meme came from.
The AfD split about a year ago, losing a lot of their business friendly supporters, and becoming a more populist (almost FN) type party.
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
Good summary. The other change is that the old AfD was seen as conceivably acceptable as a future coalition partner if necessary by he CDU (roughly like the Left Party for the SPD, which is seen as more or less acceptable at state level) while the new AfD is not.
Not quite sure where this AfD being a far-right party meme came from.
The AfD split about a year ago, losing a lot of their business friendly supporters, and becoming a more populist (almost FN) type party.
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
I agree with your analysis of both AfD pre and post leadership change. I just struggle to see how they can be classified as a far-right party.
We are British and you should remember that when you are posting your 999th post for remain(The European superstate lot) when you Scott have told us that you couldn't careless who wins ;-)
O/T: Just found out that Jim Diamond (of PhD and I Should Have Known Better fame) died in October. I must have been out of the country at the time since I didn't know. Sad news.
I understand from a Boundary Commission source that Broxtowe is slated to be one of the constituencies to disappear. Exactly how isn't clear, but if they treat the City border as sacrosanct (as they have in the past, for no good reason in my opinion) then it will merge into part of Ashfield, replacing a Lab and Con marginal by a Lab marginal on 2015 figures. The MPs are Anna Soubry and Gloria de Piero respectively - should be a needle match.
I understand from a Boundary Commission source that Broxtowe is slated to be one of the constituencies to disappear. Exactly how isn't clear, but if they treat the City border as sacrosanct (as they have in the past, for no good reason in my opinion) then it will merge into part of Ashfield, replacing a Lab and Con marginal by a Lab marginal on 2015 figures. The MPs are Anna Soubry and Gloria de Piero respectively - should be a needle match.
I didn't know the boundary commission had even started their work yet.
How on earth has HMQ put up with all these dreadful politicians over the 60+ years?
In the last few years she's had the self absorbed Blair's, neurotic Brown, dodgy Dave, Calamity Clegg and that guy Ed somebody... Oh and now she's got totally bonkers Jezza to deal with as well.
I know in the early days of Trump campaign he really wasn't spending much money, but he must be burning lots of money now...also when it comes to the real thing, is he really going to spend the £100's millions on the tv ads from his own pocket? He has been boosting about not taking $10 million from a donor in Florida.
Comments
In Baden the anti-immigrants up 15%, the pro-immigrants down 13%.
In Rheinland anti-immigrants up 12.5, pro-immigrants down 10.5.
In Saxony anti-immigrants up 24.5, pro-immigrants down 22.5.
I suspect the same has happened to iSam
I was in the children's section of the library the other day when I came across the following tome:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/First-Kipper-Kippers-Book-Weather/dp/0340710527
Sadly, there was no mention of homosexuality causing floods.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Story-about-Ping-Marjorie-Flack/dp/0808525425
(Warning: you need to be a geek.)
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709128319468490753
http://www.dw.com/en/german-state-elections-success-for-right-wing-afd-losses-for-merkels-cdu/a-19113604
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Hand_in_the_Bush
Perhaps NSFW
https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/709115933802033152
Lots filmed in Liverpool, doubling for Edwardian London/New York I guess.
CDU 29.8%
AfD 24.4%
Left 16.2%
SPD 10.6%
Green 5.2%
FDP 4.8%
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Sachsen-Anhalt_2016
" err, sorry they only go in the little black collection boxes"
Good for him, all those who doubted his commitment look a bit foolish now, as does Cameron as his childish attack has backfired big time.
@BBCGavinHewitt
Interesting point made on German state elections. Greens did well in Baden-W and they have been supportive of Merkel's refugee policy.
It is a very good article. And wrong.
CDU + AfD is about the only thing that works, CDU + SPD + Green is short, as is Left + SPD + Green. If the FDP had made it over the threshold it would have become even more fragmented...
I don't know what I expected, to be honest, but I shouldn't have been surprised by the subtitle given the main title.
More generally, as Nate Silver has persuasively argued, the party(ies) in power get gradually punished by the electorate. A grand coalition will naturally create space for alternatives.
The only place it doesn't seem as clear is the Netherlands, where coalitions with fewer than four parties seem pretty rare.
https://twitter.com/alimhaider/status/708665526210338817
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/us/politics/marco-rubio-florida-primary.html?_r=1
"His top donors, who gathered in Miami Beach for a two-day retreat planned as a victory party, are now contemplating a desperate Plan B: which candidate or which group they might instead pool their resources behind to stop Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Rubio’s campaign, once hopeful that Florida would be the final stop on his road to the nomination, has gone from fighting for its life to just getting through the day."
"Mostly gone is the sunny optimism of those at his side throughout his deflating and exasperating run. They acknowledge that the end is probably near, and say they just want it to be as painless as possible."
"Mr. Arza diagnosed the real problem, in his view: the voters. “You have an upset electorate that is making an irrational decision based on where they are now,” he said. “Does it make sense? No.” "
Goodnight.
But it is a well written article. It shows Boris is not the complete buffoon he portrays on TV.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/709143243238277120
My man in Germany tells me that the FPD is likely to (just) make the 5% mark in B-W in the final analysis.
That makes a usable coalition even harder to achieve. Even CDU + AfD is only just over 50%.
But it is a well written article. It shows Boris is not the complete buffoon he portrays on TV.
I think Obama (and I suspect this would be true of Trump or any other US leader) would like a relatively strong and united Europe, to stand up to an expansionist Russia.
Chicago is a mess of crime and gang warfare, more like a typical 70's american city, and residents are angry and have asked for the Mayor's resignation for a long time now.
Logically Sanders will benefit from that, however the Chicago riots could be a spanner since some of his groups were involved, so I'm not quite ready to call Illinois for Sanders before I see a post riot poll.
You can't help but feel a bit sorry for him, he thought a successful euref campaign would catapult him into number 10 - yet he's ended up as the third-officer on a sinking ship.
All he's got left is impotent rage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAsP_77Y_xU
I will go down with this ship
And I won't put my hands up and surrender
There will be no white flag above my door
I'm in love and always will be
The old AfD was somewhere between UKIP and the Conservative Party - containing the business friendly elements of the latter, and Euroscepticism that sat somewhere in-between. The new one is much harder to categorise: it's much more economically left-wing, and much more focussed on immigration from outside the EU, and less on sovereignty.
http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2016-03-13-LT-DE-ST/
Easy. Blame the Tories! https://t.co/fW7ZD5I5Hf
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-boris-johnson-matches-david-cameron-on-trust-sas-comres-poll-a6927751.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12192893/Americans-would-never-accept-EU-restrictions-so-why-should-we.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35775513
Even Boris doesn't believe what he writes, why should we?
Prime minister's former adviser savages Boris's mayoral legacy
Former No 10 head of strategy Steve Hilton says Johnson hasn’t matched Ken Livingstone and it was Evening Standard editor’s idea for him to run for mayor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Diamond_(singer)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwRy35IlujQ
Regie: Leni Riefenstahl
EXCLUSIVE: Lib Dem leader’s Euro lecture left relationship with Her Majesty at an all-time low
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6998250/Queen-blasted-Clegg-over-Euro-sermon.html
Diggidy dig dig dig.
I don't want to get banned by telling you ;-)
According to my skim of this, thermal expansion was main cause of sea leve rise last century.
How on earth has HMQ put up with all these dreadful politicians over the 60+ years?
In the last few years she's had the self absorbed Blair's, neurotic Brown, dodgy Dave, Calamity Clegg and that guy Ed somebody... Oh and now she's got totally bonkers Jezza to deal with as well.
How does the woman do it?