Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The next CON leader betting and PB/Polling Matters podcast
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran looks back at a busy week in U.S. politics and updates us on the latest results from this weekend and fallout from Trump’s cancelled rally in Chicago. Keiran also argues why he thinks a Trump-Cruz ticket is more likely than the GOP establishment choosing a Kasich, Rubio or Ryan.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
"Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment."
Never managed to achieve it on an I phone. On IPad I can log in only with chrome ?
Too many candidates members would prefer to George. Too many candidates MPs will see as safer than Boris. Both are dependent on a particular referendum result and both are vulnerable to sheer passage of time if Cameron doesn't go soon.
Someone may have told you wrong given the cost rises of the GWML electrification ...
My problem with the IEP project are based on several things. Firstly, since privatisation we've had the rather good idea of letting the customers (TOCs) specify the trains they want, and then organise their purchase by the ROSCOs, from whom they are leased. The IEP was specified by the Department of Transport in intimate detail, without much TOC input.
Secondly, the financials are complex, even by the standards of the privatised railways.
Thirdly, when the contract changed due to electrification plans and (I think) Hitachi admitting they could not reach the original agreed specifications, the contract was not reopened to all bidders. Instead Hitachi got to deliver less for more money.
The taxpayer and passenger may well end up paying for the IEP project in many ways.
https://www.nao.org.uk/report/procuring-new-trains-2/
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/hope-for-lonely-rodents-rent-a-guinea-pig-service-takes-off-in-switzerland-a-787336.html
Although I'm a bit of a Cameron fan. He's far from perfect and has made mistakes, but he;s far better than his detractors say. A factor that's probably aided him, as his enemies always underestimate him. Witness last May.
(dons coat)
Cameron has led from the front on this issue every step of the way and his decisions have been both humane and practical without being shouted from the rooftops. It is a huge shame Merkel and other leaders have not shown the same sense on this issue.
Of course I think he is an absolute stinker on other issues, most particularly the EU but that should in no way detract from his behaviour regarding the migration crisis.
On the IEP procurement I read that the DfT went through seven people heading up the project which doesn't sound good. I tend to agree that we should let the TOCs determine what trains are needed within certain parameters.
Where it doesn't always work is what we've had with the Gatwick Express. Southern ditched the purpose built class 460s in favour of off-lease 442s which were not nearly as appropriate for the service. Now GTR (which includes Southern) are introducing the class 387/2s on to the Gatwick Express and proclaiming an improvement in the service which they themselves downgraded to save money!
That was completely ignored. [Huff]Don't know why I bothered[/Huff]
In a sense though the Tories can elect anyone. It does not matter. While Corbyn is there Labour is irrelevant. I have never known a time when Labour was invisible. Irrelevant in the referendum. Irrelevant on the economy. Does anyone believe that John McDonnell has anything worthwhile to say on the deficit or investment? The leader was last heard to mutter something about prostitution. No wonder the local by elections this week show them losing vote share in Kendal and Maidenhead. They are falling further back in Scotland. They just do not matter anymore.
Their percentages have been climbing as more results come in
Answer: certainly, to me, she broke the law.
Some people (and I've no idea if this is right) claim that the IEP might not have the range under diesel power to reach Penzance in some circumstances. I've no idea if that's true, but given the gradients on that line I wouldn't be surprised.
Personally I'd upgrade a few HSTs (e.g. make them comply with the new disability rules) and use them. They're classy.
Oh, wait, you meant Trump.
*funded by English taxpayers
Tune in around midnight...
What a punishing schedule. How long can he keep this up?
Shamed ex Co-op boss Paul Flowers 'back on drugs' as he's filmed on bizarre four day bender
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/shamed-ex-co-op-boss-7547510
Saxony is an example where thanks to the AFD there can be no grand coalition anymore, and if the Greens fall bellow 5% the CDU will have to choose between the AFD and the Left party, if it wants to stay in power there.
The more the primary goes on the more frothing they become, Ross Douthat even implied that Trump will be assassinated like Caesar in order to prevent him getting the nomination.
The only way I can see them finally giving up is if Trump wins all 5 states on Tuesday, the longer the primary and this sick condition lasts the greater the long term damage to the republicans.
The longer the civil war lasts the greater the damage, and it will be more difficult to piece the republicans together again.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/mar/13/greville-janner-posed-as-childrens-home-carer-to-abuse-boy-inquiry-told
Go grandmaster wins fourth showdown of five-match series against Google’s artificial intelligence, AlphaGo
Florida
GOP
Trump 48
Rubio 22
Cruz 21
Kasich 9
Dems
Clinton 61
Sanders 34
Ohio
GOP
Kasich 39
Trump 33
Cruz 19
Rubio 6
Dems
Clinton 58
Sanders 38
Illinois
GOP
Trump 34
Cruz 25
Kasich 21
Rubio 16
Dems
Clinton 51
Sanders 45
On Europe, is there still trouble with the AfD and the ECR group in the European Parliament?
EDIT: On HSTs I think this is one of the big issues with the GWEP overrun. The disability rules are changing and the HSTs need to go before then.
I believe that ScotRail will be getting some cascaded HSTs so they will still be in use after the IEPs come in. I also read that GWR were testing short formation HSTs on the Cardiff to Portsmouth route. I know many people who have used that route regularly and it is crying out for better trains so hopefully some HSTs can continue in England after the IEPs come in.
Not a huge amount of liquidity, but was able to get a couple of shekels on at 7/2.
Florida
GOP
Trump 44
Rubio 21
Cruz 24
Kasich 9
Dems
Clinton 62
Sanders 34
Ohio
GOP
Trump 33
Kasich 33
Cruz 23
Rubio 5
Dems
Clinton 52
Sanders 43
Illinois
GOP
Trump 38
Cruz 34
Kasich 16
Rubio 11
Dems
Sanders 48
Clinton 46
The Left party was unable to penetrate the old border, due to the perception in the west that it is the old GDR government, of course that perception also helps it in the east, the economic class factor isn't strong enough to overcome it.
Now though you have identity politics, and it works much better for the AFD, although there is a 10% difference between east and west it's half of that of the Left historically.
pic.twitter.com/8AS929Z0eP
Imagine a permanent Tory-Labour government under David Cameron that lasts forever.
Rubio and Jeb Bush are a waste of time and money, I've said it for years.
The naysayers forget the American public are very familiar with Trump, and what he does.
He will frame the debates as if he, Trump, is vetting the Apprentice [Clinton] for the most important job in the world. And the public will buy that, quite readily, and let him - indeed expect him to - give her a very hard time. The fact she's a woman is of no importance. That would only factor if some beta like Romney was trying to pull the same stunt.
At some point they'll also expect him to turn to camera, and say:- "Will you tell her, or shall I? Hillary, you're fired!"
Which other European countries have grand coalitions right now?
France: No
Spain: No
Italy: No
Netherlands: Always has about five parties in coalition
I see the 802's are going to be built at an Italian factory which, if I recall some conversations correctly, does not hold the record for the best build quality (though they've been taken over by Hitachi since then).
I really don't like the bi-mode idea.
Full of old people, so not much room to feel the Bern.
I've backed Bernie in Ohio, it'd be delicious for Hillary to lose her home state of Illinois.
Baden-Weurttemburg is the interesting one, the current coalition is Green/SPD. That doesn't get across the line any more because AfD have surged. I would be surprised if the FDP get into bed with such a coalition to get them over the line so it means the CDU are going to have to give way locally and not exercise their power.