politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor
Comments
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Trump definitely sounds better to Tschaikovsy, than rap...0
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He's always been in favour. Typical of many (not the majority of) tories, good at being un-PC over a pub lunch, no actual balls on the issue.Luckyguy1983 said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/jeremy-clarkson-announces-he-wants-britain-to-stay-in-the-eu-to-create-a-united-states-of-europe-a6928556.htmlMP_SE said:At least Clarkson is honest about what direction he hopes the EU takes unlike so many Remainers/Undecideds who claim the status quo is a realistic option:
Jeremy Clarkson has announced that he wants Britain to stay in the EU in order to establish a “United States of Europe” with “one army and one currency”.
Dude:
I don't agree with Jeremy Clarkson. But frankly, being openly pro-federalist like Jeremy, is about as un-PC as it comes.0 -
What is the main reform that you would like the EU to undertake?NorfolkTilIDie said:
The problem is that this "stay in to fix it" approach has been tested to destruction. Whether lovebombing them under Blair or playing hardball under Cameron, the EU has shown they are impervious to reform. It took years for Cameron to get slight reductions to child benefits for some new EU migrants. Clearly broad structural reform just cannot be done.Roger said:
Interesting. Clarkson is talking about the kind of the Europe I could be seduced by, as I once blogged for the Telegraph.NorfolkTilIDie said:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/newsreview/article1677563.eceSeanT said:
It is, as always, interesting to contrast the reporting of the statement, with the statement itselfScott_P said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/jeremy-clarkson-announces-he-wants-britain-to-stay-in-the-eu-to-create-a-united-states-of-europe-a6928556.htmlMP_SE said:At least Clarkson is honest about what direction he hopes the EU takes unlike so many Remainers/Undecideds who claim the status quo is a realistic option:
Jeremy Clarkson has announced that he wants Britain to stay in the EU in order to establish a “United States of Europe” with “one army and one currency”.
I’m the first to acknowledge that so far the EU hasn’t really worked. We still don’t have standardised electrical sockets, and every member state is still out for itself, not the common good. This is the sort of thing that causes many people to think, “Well, let’s just leave and look after ourselves in future.”
I get that. I really do. And after I’d watched Hannan’s speech, that’s briefly how I felt too. But, actually, isn’t it better to stay in and try to make the damn thing work properly? To create a United States of Europe that functions as well as the United States of America? With one army and one currency and one unifying set of values?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100238999/heres-how-i-would-sell-the-european-union-if-i-had-to/
Frankly thinking we will stay in a bit more to get reform at this stage is like the alcoholic who has destroyed his life with binge after binge thinking he can handle just one drink. Its blind hope over experience.
Protection of non-Euro nations from Eurozone hegemony.
The whole point of belonging to any club is to benefit its members (and implicitly not benefit the non-members).
If there are advantages to being in the Eurozone as opposed to not, then the obvious solution is to join.
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Yes, and if Our Dave even breathed such an outcome, those being threatened will quickly respond with a challenge to his leadership. Despite the joking the mind of Cameron must be full of plots and counter-plots.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
I'd heard that Boris was being lined up for Governor General of the South Sandwich Islands.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're such a cynic.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Doubt there'll be much of a reconciliation reshuffle after GO was asking MP's if they're voting LEAVE or want to have a career.
Unless you mean reconciliation in the Tony Soprano sense,
Dave will make Boris Northern Ireland Secretary, Gove Ambassador to the Islamic State, that sort of reconciliation0 -
Mr. T, but the idea we could lead the EU is completely at odds with reality.
The EU is not merely a collection of nation-states, it has become an entity in its own right.0 -
Dude:rcs1000 said:
He's always been in favour. Typical of many (not the majority of) tories, good at being un-PC over a pub lunch, no actual balls on the issue.Luckyguy1983 said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/jeremy-clarkson-announces-he-wants-britain-to-stay-in-the-eu-to-create-a-united-states-of-europe-a6928556.htmlMP_SE said:At least Clarkson is honest about what direction he hopes the EU takes unlike so many Remainers/Undecideds who claim the status quo is a realistic option:
Jeremy Clarkson has announced that he wants Britain to stay in the EU in order to establish a “United States of Europe” with “one army and one currency”.
I don't agree with Jeremy Clarkson. But frankly, being openly pro-federalist like Jeremy, is about as un-PC as it comes.
I think he's simply trying to add a dash of eccentricity to what would otherwise be a dreary capitulation. I've also heard him say say in previous years he was in favour because the EU removed more power from 'the idiot Blair'. Neither argument stands up to the least scrutiny. He's just a Cameroon, plain and simple.0 -
Police at the incident in Grand Bassam
Shooting under way at hotel in resort popular with Westerners, according to reports
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/cotedivoire/12192667/Ivory-Coast-hotel-shooting-Gunmen-open-fire-and-kill-several-in-beach-resort.html0 -
Tunnock's Teacakes....SeanT said:TOLD YOU
Bravehearts. What a country. Porridge. Shortbread. Dundonians.0 -
SeanT errr two Scottish tries.... You get the Roger award for sports forecasting. But they got away with a wimpy shirt pull.0
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Computer scientists have devised a digital crypto-currency in league with the Bank of England that could pose a devastating threat to large tranches of the financial industry, and profoundly change the management of monetary policy.
The proto-currency known as RSCoin has vastly greater scope than Bitcoin, used for peer-to-peer transactions by libertarians across the world, and beyond the control of any political authority.
University College's RSCoin is safer, faster, and far less less volatile. It can scale up indefinitely. Its beauty is that it cuts out the middleman, and reduces costs to a wafer thin level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/13/central-banks-beat-bitcoin-at-own-game-with-rival-supercurrency/0 -
98% surely?anothernick said:Canvassing in inner London this morning for Sadiq/Remain.
Out of about 100 contacts we got just two - TWO - for Leave. Might be a coincidence, but very unusual to find such a weight of opinion on one side in any election. I'd say Remain has already sewn up at least 70% of the vote in this area.0 -
Ah yes, another failed crypto-currency.FrancisUrquhart said:Computer scientists have devised a digital crypto-currency in league with the Bank of England that could pose a devastating threat to large tranches of the financial industry, and profoundly change the management of monetary policy.
The proto-currency known as RSCoin has vastly greater scope than Bitcoin, used for peer-to-peer transactions by libertarians across the world, and beyond the control of any political authority.
University College's RSCoin is safer, faster, and far less less volatile. It can scale up indefinitely. Its beauty is that it cuts out the middleman, and reduces costs to a wafer thin level.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/13/central-banks-beat-bitcoin-at-own-game-with-rival-supercurrency/0 -
It's dark in the winter.Sean_F said:
Norway has twice voted against EU membership. That doesn't make Norway a dark, xenophobic country.Roger said:
My only fear is that there could be an army of elderly xenophobic voters in small towns and villages who are going under the radar at the moment but end up marching to the voting booths in numbers......Freggles said:It's time to open our eyes to what's REALLY going on in this country...
...LEAVE are headed for a pounding at the ballot box.
I'm torn between seeing this country as the progressive one that embraced Danny Boyle's vision of the Olympics and another which is altogether darker.0 -
Der Trump ist hier!0
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On topic (ish), I was talking to a Tory MP on Friday. From what he said, Osborne would be unlikely to make it to the final two now, never mind after a bad budget or a Leave vote. He might have been trying to gain support among his colleagues but to no great effect.0
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Crickey who is the rather excitable chap doing the warm up routine...RodCrosby said:Der Trump ist hier!
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Is it Osborne's perceived unelectability with voters or his lack of Conservative policies or his treatment of other MPs or.....david_herdson said:On topic (ish), I was talking to a Tory MP on Friday. From what he said, Osborne would be unlikely to make it to the final two now, never mind after a bad budget or a Leave vote. He might have been trying to gain support among his colleagues but to no great effect.
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I seem to recall reading that Bevin advocated not joining on the basis that the Durham miners wouldn't wear it.SeanT said:
Sadly, yes. Looking back, of course, we should have joined the ECSC in the beginning, after the war. We had the moral authority as victors. We had the Empire behind us. We could have insisted on a more Anglo Saxon governance, and that many institutions be based in London. And the Europeans would have meekly agreed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, but the idea we could lead the EU is completely at odds with reality.
The EU is not merely a collection of nation-states, it has become an entity in its own right.
English would have become the default language from the start etc etc. A huge error.
But yes, if Britain had been there at the beginning then it would be a different beast now. The spirit of Jean Monnet lives on.0 -
Looking back we should have federalised the Empire back in 1760s. Then let rest of Europe join as states one by one.SeanT said:
Sadly, yes. Looking back, of course, we should have joined the ECSC in the beginning, after the war. We had the moral authority as victors. We had the Empire behind us. We could have insisted on a more Anglo Saxon governance, and that many institutions be based in London. And the Europeans would have meekly agreed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, but the idea we could lead the EU is completely at odds with reality.
The EU is not merely a collection of nation-states, it has become an entity in its own right.
English would have become the default language from the start etc etc. A huge error.0 -
Could be two Leavers. Gove? Patel?SeanT said:
Which means it is Boris Johnson versus A N Other.david_herdson said:On topic (ish), I was talking to a Tory MP on Friday. From what he said, Osborne would be unlikely to make it to the final two now, never mind after a bad budget or a Leave vote. He might have been trying to gain support among his colleagues but to no great effect.
But who?
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In Brixton. You would expect a high % for remain but the unanimity of opinion was surprising. This was in streets of Victorian cottages - mostly middle class and voter turnout would be above the average for the area.Sean_F said:
Which ward?anothernick said:Canvassing in inner London this morning for Sadiq/Remain.
Out of about 100 contacts we got just two - TWO - for Leave. Might be a coincidence, but very unusual to find such a weight of opinion on one side in any election. I'd say Remain has already sewn up at least 70% of the vote in this area.0 -
TSE: "So I’m taking the 6/1 William Hill are offering that Osborne ceases to be Chancellor this year"
Possibly still a good value bet, but not nearly as good as when OGH first suggested it at 10/1 a couple of weeks ago, also with Wm. Hill.0 -
Great penalty.0
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But even if France scrape a victory here they'll need to beat England by ~30 points next week to win the championship.0
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Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.0
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Get em out !0
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It when you look at the schedules for candidates for being the GOP/DEM candidate for POTUS, let alone actually the run off..its just bonkers....I am surprised they don't make way more gaffes than Obama's 57 states...They must have to be constantly reminded what state they have just touched down in etc.0
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A rather greedy 19% over-round by Hills for this market, but if one disregards the 5/4 odds against him leaving the Treasury in 2020 which appears way too short to me, then the odds for the other years, especially 2016 and 2017 actually look quite attractive.
DYOR.0 -
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
The US media are making the mistake over Trump, as here they did for so long with Nick Griffing and still do with Farage. They just concentrate on the racist / non-pc stuff, not the fact the promises they are making are totally unrealistic or more generous extremely unlikely to come true. Trump can't deliver the mainstay of his campaign, but they are all too busy giving him publicity of "Islam hates us" stuff, which for his target audience is a positive message not a negative that CNN etc think they are spreading.0 -
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
Lyin' Ted lol0
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I do not think anyone on PB today realises just how exhausted everyone in Britain was after VE day. I can still remember as an eleven year old, how most families were looking for their loved ones in the forces to come home; how there wasn't enough to eat and how drab every thing was. The phrase "browned off" was meant literally.david_herdson said:
I seem to recall reading that Bevin advocated not joining on the basis that the Durham miners wouldn't wear it.SeanT said:
Sadly, yes. Looking back, of course, we should have joined the ECSC in the beginning, after the war. We had the moral authority as victors. We had the Empire behind us. We could have insisted on a more Anglo Saxon governance, and that many institutions be based in London. And the Europeans would have meekly agreed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, but the idea we could lead the EU is completely at odds with reality.
The EU is not merely a collection of nation-states, it has become an entity in its own right.
English would have become the default language from the start etc etc. A huge error.
But yes, if Britain had been there at the beginning then it would be a different beast now. The spirit of Jean Monnet lives on.
The electorate in rejecting Churchill were rejecting anything to do with Europe and the war too. The French were looked on as iffy allies and many thought them collaborators with the Nazis. Same with the Belgians and the Dutch. British soldiers had seen how well off these allies were compared to the average Briton.
Even a few years after the war the government and most people thought that Britain still had a durable empire to rely on, despite India and Pakistan being given their independence. Hence the colonial wars in Malaya and Kenya.
No, Europe was the last place Britain wanted to be attached to. Only when de Gaulle said 'non', did British ears prick up.0 -
Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.0 -
Nate "less than 5% chance" Silver?Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
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That is where we differ , we will be happy to win and hand it to England, if only it was the same the other way round.SeanT said:Scotland to beat France today? What are the odds? (4/5 Scotland favourites, apparently)
France have probably never been weaker.
However, beating France hands the Championship to England. A dilemma for our Cybernat friends.0 -
"Nate Silver @NateSilver538 2h2 hours ago
Wonder if Trump's recent behavior is intended to produce an implied threat that a contested convention could become violent."
What absolute tosh.0 -
Probably not so surprising. The Conservatives and UKIP only won 14% there, in 2014, compared to 76% for Labour and the Green Party. If you were canvassing a ward in Havering or Bromley, you'd probably see virtual unanimity in the other direction.anothernick said:
In Brixton. You would expect a high % for remain but the unanimity of opinion was surprising. This was in streets of Victorian cottages - mostly middle class and voter turnout would be above the average for the area.Sean_F said:
Which ward?anothernick said:Canvassing in inner London this morning for Sadiq/Remain.
Out of about 100 contacts we got just two - TWO - for Leave. Might be a coincidence, but very unusual to find such a weight of opinion on one side in any election. I'd say Remain has already sewn up at least 70% of the vote in this area.0 -
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
Got to be a record, 5 mins before "GET THEM OUT"....That really should be his catchphrase.0
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At one time, Louise posted on PB.com more frequently than Plato and SeanT put together.SeanT said:
Oh god. Mensch. Incessant tedious anti-Trump tweets. And I often agree with her.Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
Her husband must despair. If he ever sees her.0 -
JackW is correct. (Assuming no 'events')Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
David, a 1% drop in Scotland last week was described as appocalyptic so hard to see why 2% should be mild.DavidL said:6/1, in other words a 1 in 7 bet that Osborne ceases to be Chancellor this year, looks a reasonable bet but that would indicate that there is a 6/7 chance that he won't.
I think there are good reasons for that. Osborne is absolutely central to this government and its policies. He has been deputy PM in all but name since the Coalition was formed, his influence on policy and appointments way beyond the Treasury is almost absolute and he has the unqualified support of his PM to whom he, in turn, has given unqualified support. There is no way, no matter what committees he is on, that he could have that kind of influence in any other position.
So this bet is a bet that Cameron is gone in 2016. I don't think that will happen even if Leave wins. A Leave win would accelerate his departure beyond doubt but a government facing the most complicated and difficult task that a UK government has undertaken since WW II really does not need to be instantly replacing its PM and Chancellor and wasting months of the 2 years notice period having a leadership election.
A vote for Leave is undoubtedly a vote for a short term jolt that may well be big enough to throw the economy into a mild recession (would only take a reduction of GDP of about 2%); it will throw the deficit reduction plan, already under strain, to pot and it will cause considerable disruption and uncertainty in the markets. The PM and Chancellor resigning or being replaced really would not help with any of that. The emphasis will be on steady as she goes for a considerable period. So he stays put.0 -
The turnout at these rallies is amazing, arriving 11hrs early to get a standing room space.0
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Get 'em out, surely?FrancisUrquhart said:Got to be a record, 5 mins before "GET THEM OUT"....That really should be his catchphrase.
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English fans would prefer Scotland winning to the French. But we're deep in the realms of the hypothetical here!malcolmg said:
That is where we differ , we will be happy to win and hand it to England, if only it was the same the other way round.SeanT said:Scotland to beat France today? What are the odds? (4/5 Scotland favourites, apparently)
France have probably never been weaker.
However, beating France hands the Championship to England. A dilemma for our Cybernat friends.0 -
Mr. Putney, must've been before I joined (pre-2007), yes?0
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"They call themselves the Elite - bet they haven't got a plane like that" (points at his)
LOL0 -
Of course you were.SeanT said:
You do realise I was trolling. Actually, probably, you don't.felix said:
Lol - I remember 'Italy are gonna win this'. And the fun continues.SeanT said:Jesus. My mum will convert to Islam before this Scotland team scores a try. How can one nation be so utterly shit at EVERYTHING (apart from making whisky)?
A mystery.0 -
It is certainly a different approach. Last time Romney and Obama were desperately trying to play down how wealthy they are, where as Trump basically does the Harry Enfield character..."I think you will find I am SIGNNNNNIFICANTLY richer than uuuuuu, call yourself elite, how big's your house, how many cars you got...you got a plane this bigggg".Plato_Says said:"They call themselves the Elite - bet they haven't got a plane like that" (points at his)
LOL0 -
What name did she use?peter_from_putney said:
At one time, Louise posted on PB.com more frequently than Plato and SeanT put together.SeanT said:
Oh god. Mensch. Incessant tedious anti-Trump tweets. And I often agree with her.Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
Her husband must despair. If he ever sees her.0 -
You really are a silly billyrichardDodd said:MD If the Scots lose then it will be Westminsters fault...
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If The Donald wins the nomination then I think he will knock strips off Hilary or Bernie and become POTUS, making JackW sad, and looking at his bets.Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
Good to see Scotland playing in BT shirts, Better Together after all.0
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Have another one dear.SeanT said:
Are you that fucking whingeing expat from Portugal? I forget. Or the BNP guy from Sunderland? I still forget. Anyway.felix said:
Of course you were.SeanT said:
You do realise I was trolling. Actually, probably, you don't.felix said:
Lol - I remember 'Italy are gonna win this'. And the fun continues.SeanT said:Jesus. My mum will convert to Islam before this Scotland team scores a try. How can one nation be so utterly shit at EVERYTHING (apart from making whisky)?
A mystery.
IQ test: fail.0 -
'The French were looked on as iffy allies and many thought them collaborators with the Nazis'
Well not an unreasonable view0 -
Not for me at 6-1.I think Remain will win relatively easily and whilst a shift out of the Treasury may well be good for Osborne,Cameron has shown he doesn't like many changes in his cabinet but more importantly,like Brown,Osbourne will resist any move because of the control it gives him.A Chancellor of the Exchequer role gives them far more opportunity to manipulate other people and shape events.Osbourne would be ejected kicking and screaming.Dave would have to call for nanny to restrain him.0
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I think Louise was still posting here in 2007, under a pseudonym, (not Bagshawe, which I believe was her real maiden name) although her true identity at the time was quite well known on PB.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, must've been before I joined (pre-2007), yes?
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Holy Crap I am pissing myselfSeanT said:
lol. I'm British. I therefore detest the French far more than I despair of my kin, the feeble Scots.malcolmg said:
That is where we differ , we will be happy to win and hand it to England, if only it was the same the other way round.SeanT said:Scotland to beat France today? What are the odds? (4/5 Scotland favourites, apparently)
France have probably never been weaker.
However, beating France hands the Championship to England. A dilemma for our Cybernat friends.
You're like our weakling younger brother, you may have some weird crippling disease, like Tiny Tim in Christmas Carol, but you are blood. You are one of us. I look at your strange wooden hand-carved wheelchair and I feel pity and a wistful love. If only you could walk, unaided.0 -
I don't know. If Leave gets 60%+ of Tory members, all factions may know they will lose against a Leaver on other side. Therefore Cameroons may want e.g. Gove to stand a chance of maintaining power. Or moderates may get on Boris train (for same reasons) and the Right will get one of their own through.SeanT said:
Can't see that. The euroref will be so divisive there will have to be a healing, head-to-head contest between the two "sides". BoJo is almost nailed on as the sceptic candidate (esp after Gove's royal booboo) but who represents REMAIN?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Could be two Leavers. Gove? Patel?SeanT said:
Which means it is Boris Johnson versus A N Other.david_herdson said:On topic (ish), I was talking to a Tory MP on Friday. From what he said, Osborne would be unlikely to make it to the final two now, never mind after a bad budget or a Leave vote. He might have been trying to gain support among his colleagues but to no great effect.
But who?
I still think it will be Osborne. If not him, I struggle to find an obvious candidate,0 -
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Well, quite. Thanks, Scotland!Alanbrooke said:Good to see Scotland playing in BT shirts, Better Together after all.
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NBC/WSJ/Marist polls
FL
Trump 43
Rubio 22
Cruz 21
Kasich 9
OH
Kasich 39
Trump 33
Cruz 19
Rubio 6
IL
Trump 34
Cruz 25
Kasich 21
Rubio 160 -
CBS/YouGov polls
FL
Trump 44
Cruz 24
Rubio 21
Kasich 9
OH
Kasich 33
Trump 33
Cruz 27
Rubio 5
IL
Trump 38
Cruz 34
Kasich 16
Rubio 110 -
Crosby calls it right after strong contrarian analysis. JackW gets it right speaking out of his ARSE. I'm with Crosby on this - Trump absolutely shreds Hillary in an all out war. It will be nasty. [And I am in the anyone but Trump camp].MikeK said:
If The Donald wins the nomination then I think he will knock strips off Hilary or Bernie and become POTUS, making JackW sad, and looking at his bets.Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
More like B*gger Tories I thinkThreeQuidder said:
Well, quite. Thanks, Scotland!Alanbrooke said:Good to see Scotland playing in BT shirts, Better Together after all.
0 -
Justice secretary Michael Gove and the German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart have been named as joint heads of the Vote Leave campaign to take Britain out of the EU, with Boris Johnson taking a key role.
John Longworth, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, will also join the campaign committee having recently been forced out of his old job for expressing support for a Brexit.
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57b74004-e91d-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#ixzz42nmepqxF
0 -
Trump will lose due to getting slaughtered in Hispanic and educated white segments.MTimT said:
Crosby calls it right after strong contrarian analysis. JackW gets it right speaking out of his ARSE. I'm with Crosby on this - Trump absolutely shreds Hillary in an all out war. It will be nasty. [And I am in the anyone but Trump camp].MikeK said:
If The Donald wins the nomination then I think he will knock strips off Hilary or Bernie and become POTUS, making JackW sad, and looking at his bets.Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.0 -
Scotland...useful for once..0
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At least 12 dead, including 4 Europeans, in attack on beach resort in Ivory Coast, police source says - Reuters via @Breaking0
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Poet Trump reading out "The snake" again.0
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I'll let someone else divulge that - but if you were on PB at that time, you would certainly remember her pseudonym.MTimT said:
What name did she use?peter_from_putney said:
At one time, Louise posted on PB.com more frequently than Plato and SeanT put together.SeanT said:
Oh god. Mensch. Incessant tedious anti-Trump tweets. And I often agree with her.Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
Her husband must despair. If he ever sees her.0 -
Better together. Thanks, Scotland.0
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Who knew shouting a poem could be so beautiful... got a tear in my eye!0
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More LOL
Trump invites guy wearing a Legal Immigrant For Trump t-shirt to speak from the podium0 -
@RodCrosby Puts his money where his mouth is, and was calling out Ed Balls losing Morley and Outwood whilst alot of people on here were still wondering if Ed Miliband would be PM.
The GOP vs DEM turnout figures are the one piece of evidence we have to go on - the "vs" state polls are bouncier than a trampoline and are less use than a chocolate teapot for the moment.0 -
"Mike Smithson"peter_from_putney said:
I'll let someone else divulge that - but if you were on PB at that time, you would certainly remember her pseudonym.MTimT said:
What name did she use?peter_from_putney said:
At one time, Louise posted on PB.com more frequently than Plato and SeanT put together.SeanT said:
Oh god. Mensch. Incessant tedious anti-Trump tweets. And I often agree with her.Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
Her husband must despair. If he ever sees her. 0 -
The Republican Party haven't had a clue how to fight Trump. I have no confidence the Democrats have any better ideas.MTimT said:
Crosby calls it right after strong contrarian analysis. JackW gets it right speaking out of his ARSE. I'm with Crosby on this - Trump absolutely shreds Hillary in an all out war. It will be nasty. [And I am in the anyone but Trump camp].MikeK said:
If The Donald wins the nomination then I think he will knock strips off Hilary or Bernie and become POTUS, making JackW sad, and looking at his bets.Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
That said, come November it will be Ovaries trumps Trump.0 -
10 minutes till the German polls close.0
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I'm English and therefore I really rather like the Scots. I'll be as rude about them as I possibly can be mind you.SeanT said:
lol. I'm British. I therefore detest the French far more than I despair of my kin, the feeble Scots.malcolmg said:
That is where we differ , we will be happy to win and hand it to England, if only it was the same the other way round.SeanT said:Scotland to beat France today? What are the odds? (4/5 Scotland favourites, apparently)
France have probably never been weaker.
However, beating France hands the Championship to England. A dilemma for our Cybernat friends.
You're like our weakling younger brother, you may have some weird crippling disease, like Tiny Tim in Christmas Carol, but you are blood. You are one of us. I look at your strange wooden hand-carved wheelchair and I feel pity and a wistful love. If only you could walk, unaided.
I'm British of course as well, and therefore I really rather like the French. I'll be as rude about them as I possibly can be too.
What particularly annoys me about the Germans is that they've messed about with this idea in the last century or so. We shouldn't be messing around fighting wars against them. Proper wars, or disputes of any kind are against the old enemies. However it has to be said I rather like the Germans too.
0 -
Mr. Brooke, just locals, right?0
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glad to be of assistanceThreeQuidder said:0 -
No, she's much younger and much prettier!RobD said:
"Mike Smithson"peter_from_putney said:
I'll let someone else divulge that - but if you were on PB at that time, you would certainly remember her pseudonym.MTimT said:
What name did she use?peter_from_putney said:
At one time, Louise posted on PB.com more frequently than Plato and SeanT put together.SeanT said:
Oh god. Mensch. Incessant tedious anti-Trump tweets. And I often agree with her.Plato_Says said:Nate has lost his mind over Trump - I've stopped reading him.
And Louise Mensch is totally OTT to stop him - hundreds of tweetsFrancisUrquhart said:
I don't want Trump to win (I don't actually want any of the candidates to win), but the media meltdown with be hilarious. They are losing their collective marbles over the fact he is even winning the GOP race *, imagine if he won the real race.MP_SE said:
I think Trump as POTUS would give the establishment the kick up the arse they deserve. I think many are sick of being dictated to by an out of touch metropolitan elite.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
* e.g even the supposedly rational data driven Nate Silver is going off his rocker, comparing Trump to David Duke.
Her husband must despair. If he ever sees her.0 -
Can Gove run a campaign locked up in the Tower of London for betraying the Queen's confidences ?CarlottaVance said:Justice secretary Michael Gove and the German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart have been named as joint heads of the Vote Leave campaign to take Britain out of the EU, with Boris Johnson taking a key role.
John Longworth, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, will also join the campaign committee having recently been forced out of his old job for expressing support for a Brexit.
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57b74004-e91d-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#ixzz42nmepqxF0 -
Boris escaping blame if leave lose as he is not the 'head' of the campaign? Wily fellow.CarlottaVance said:Justice secretary Michael Gove and the German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart have been named as joint heads of the Vote Leave campaign to take Britain out of the EU, with Boris Johnson taking a key role.
John Longworth, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, will also join the campaign committee having recently been forced out of his old job for expressing support for a Brexit.
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57b74004-e91d-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#ixzz42nmepqxF0 -
Finally getting back there after an awful period.SeanT said:
lol. Indeed.malcolmg said:
Depending on us as everSeanT said:ENGLAND WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP
Thankyou, oor wee cousin Scotland.
In truth I think you are one of the underrrated teams of the Northern Hemisphere. The World Cup showed it, and this proves it. You've got a couple of world class players. Great spirit. Some elegant back play.
No reason you couldn't go on and win the Championship in 2017 or 18.0 -
well regionals but yes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, just locals, right?
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Mr. Brooke, any ETA for results? Will there be an exit poll?0
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I know an amazingly large number of educated whites who are all in for Trump. Those who are against him are already overwhelmingly traditional Dem voters.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Trump will lose due to getting slaughtered in Hispanic and educated white segments.MTimT said:
Crosby calls it right after strong contrarian analysis. JackW gets it right speaking out of his ARSE. I'm with Crosby on this - Trump absolutely shreds Hillary in an all out war. It will be nasty. [And I am in the anyone but Trump camp].MikeK said:
If The Donald wins the nomination then I think he will knock strips off Hilary or Bernie and become POTUS, making JackW sad, and looking at his bets.Philip_Thompson said:
Have Crosby and JackW disagreed so fervently before and if so who was right? Both are usually very accurate but are completely at odds now.peter_from_putney said:
Rod Crosby of this Parish, who unlike certain others I could mention *cough*, usually makes the right call, gives Trump a 75% chance of becoming the next POTUS.SeanT said:
I REALLY want Trump to win. Not just as a joke. I think he'd be a fairly good president. Better than Obama at foreign policy. And a kick up the arse for western establishments worldwide. Ours included.Plato_Says said:Trump's plane is just taxiing into position - I'm watching on YouTube and the comments are brilliant.
He won't win, but we can dream.
I am not sure what will happen with the Hispanics vote - if they have normal turnout, I wonder whether the fall off from the Romney Hispanic vote will be significant enough to impact the result given that Trump will probably win back more than the 1 million white GOP votes who sat out Romney. If Trump truly galvanizes a massive, monolithic Hispanic vote, then he might be in trouble. But there is a long while between now and the GE for Trump to pour oil on troubled waters once the nomination is in the bag.0 -
But doesn't it also mean that Gove is in the box seat to become next Tory leader should LEAVE win?kle4 said:
Boris escaping blame if leave lose as he is not the 'head' of the campaign? Wily fellow.CarlottaVance said:Justice secretary Michael Gove and the German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart have been named as joint heads of the Vote Leave campaign to take Britain out of the EU, with Boris Johnson taking a key role.
John Longworth, the former head of the British Chambers of Commerce, will also join the campaign committee having recently been forced out of his old job for expressing support for a Brexit.
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57b74004-e91d-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#ixzz42nmepqxF0 -
Any moment now according to ARD. 6pm for the exit polls local.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, any ETA for results? Will there be an exit poll?
0
