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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor
On Wednesday George Osborne will deliver his eighth budget and I’m starting to wonder if this will be Osborne’s final budget, for the following reasons,
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...LEAVE are headed for a pounding at the ballot box.
He's either gone soft or has to much invested in trying to become Leader. Neither is a good look IMO.
With four yrs to go before the next GE, he's wasting precious time, when he should be reforming. Time for fresh minds here.
Unless you mean reconciliation in the Tony Soprano sense,
The Spectator internship scheme is now open. It's an aptitude test: please don't send a CV. Details: https://t.co/XRN2GxJHz9
You're only trying to get everyone's hopes up.
Higher turnout out in Germam elections. Probably bad news for Merkel
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/landtagswahlen-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung-bis-zum-mittag-14121908.html
- Power of status quo
- Power of Establishment
- Lack of coherent strategy on part of Leave
- Popularity of PM
Meanwhile, Hammond has much more financial experience and a calming manner. He'd be a good Chancellor and wouldn't constantly be in the news as jostling for power (or at least, not on present form). Moreover, he's known to be a Eurosceptic even if he is officially supporting Remain, which might help soothe feelings after Leave get hammered.
Of course it would damage Osborne's leadership ambitions, but it would make a stronger government that would be better for the country (not that Osborne would be exactly a new Disraeli). And that's what Cameron should think of right now.
Let's also think about recent history. Arguably, the worst political mistake Blair ever made was not moving or even firing Brown in 2001. That led to a great many disasters later (admittedly Blair managed Iraq all on his own) simply because Brown had decided he was (1) brilliant (2) indispensable (3) the next PM and therefore in need of buying votes on a grand scale and running up a current account deficit of £50 billion to pay for them at the height of a giddy and unstable boom. Osborne isn't even as clever as Brown, although he is just as arrogant - he could make a worse ballsup. If TSE is right and this is his last budget, that's the right move.
Let's hope the Scots give the frogs a stuffing.
I'm not seeing the supposedly great Remain campaign
The people are going off the Establishment
Boris has same Trust factor as Cameron.
Not seeing your evidence as more than personal opinion. That's fine.
If 'Leave' win then I can't see how the Scots can be denied another referendum. The prospectus was called 'Better Together' which included Britain in the EU.
If it had offered staying with England out of the EU I don't think there can be much doubt the vote would have gone the other way.
Baden Wurttemberg which used to be solidly CDU but has now drifted off to the greens
Rheinland Pfalz which is SPD but which merkel was hoping to take
Sachsen Anhalt which is run by the CDU but who will probably get squeezed by AfD if the polls are to be believed
In total about 13 million voters eligible.
that will probably do him more damage commercially than hitting his producer.
People been queuing since 11.30pm last night.
1100 protestors also at the last count.
He's always been in favour. Typical of many (not the majority of) tories, good at being un-PC over a pub lunch, no actual balls on the issue.
It is, as always, interesting to contrast the reporting of the statement, with the statement itself http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/newsreview/article1677563.ece
I think there are good reasons for that. Osborne is absolutely central to this government and its policies. He has been deputy PM in all but name since the Coalition was formed, his influence on policy and appointments way beyond the Treasury is almost absolute and he has the unqualified support of his PM to whom he, in turn, has given unqualified support. There is no way, no matter what committees he is on, that he could have that kind of influence in any other position.
So this bet is a bet that Cameron is gone in 2016. I don't think that will happen even if Leave wins. A Leave win would accelerate his departure beyond doubt but a government facing the most complicated and difficult task that a UK government has undertaken since WW II really does not need to be instantly replacing its PM and Chancellor and wasting months of the 2 years notice period having a leadership election.
A vote for Leave is undoubtedly a vote for a short term jolt that may well be big enough to throw the economy into a mild recession (would only take a reduction of GDP of about 2%); it will throw the deficit reduction plan, already under strain, to pot and it will cause considerable disruption and uncertainty in the markets. The PM and Chancellor resigning or being replaced really would not help with any of that. The emphasis will be on steady as she goes for a considerable period. So he stays put.
At that moment, he lost what little credibility he still had!
Plus the fact that REMAIN does well in phone polling, when we know that UKIPpers and generally more radical political sentiments are over-represnted in online polls.
The biggest force in UK politics is inertia - once a paradigm shifts it stays there for a while. We had a decade of New Labour dominance, now a decade of Tory dominance, while Scotland continues to be SNP-dominated.
Shifts can happen but if we were headed for the exit I would expect consistent leads for LEAVE right now: in the final days there will be serious doom-and-gloom scaremongering, day in day out, which will pull undecideds into the Status Quo camp.
[I do think there are genuine arguments to stay in. But pretending we can magically change things and denying reality is not a genuine argument].
Dave will make Boris Northern Ireland Secretary, Gove Ambassador to the Islamic State, that sort of reconciliation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35795864
Mildly surprised, but pleased he's (sort of) back. Di Resta was more or less on a par with Hulkenberg when they were team mates and is definitely good enough to be in F1 but left, essentially, because he didn't have the sponsorship cash to get in. With Massa almost old enough for a bus pass, he must hope to inherit a Williams seat.
I'm torn between seeing this country as the progressive one that embraced Danny Boyle's vision of the Olympics and another which is altogether darker.
5) Epic failure of deficit reduction.
After all, Boris would unite the good people of Ulster against him, and as for the other one...
Mark Wallace
Also good that @vote_leave campaign cttee includes Labour, Tory, UKIP, DUP, Lib Dem and ex-BCC DG John Longworth. https://t.co/xqREO4Cgkt
but didn't you tell me that post referendum there's no point to UKIP so they'll disappear ?
So all those grumpy kippers will be rejoining their local conservative association and then selecting Atila the Hun for their local MP. Dave will be having to reconcile with Mr War, Mr Famine , Mr Death and Mr Pestilence.
UKIP will always be around for the foreseeable future in some form or another.
Depends a lot on Farage.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_republican_presidential_primary-4077.html
It's a great dream. It's also completely unrealistic.
You're not voting on whether the ideal is something you like, but on what reality is.
Opinion polls tell us what kind of support a party would get if a general election were hel today.
@JasonFarrellSky: Jeremy Corbyn has "pulled something in his leg" according to @HackneyAbbott - NOT broken his arm as someone was reporting on Twitter.
In fact if this were the polling for Indyref, Better Together would be sh*tting a collective brick by now, and there was a far stronger 'fear factor' there, both financially and politically.
I agree with you about the establishment, but I would have expected:
-Murdoch and his empire to capitulate (perhaps they still will, but it's not looking that way)
-The Daily Mail to prove characteristically lacking in backbone and go for 'We'd like to Leave but it will damage your mortgage and take away your pension so vote Remain'. Again that may still happen but hasn't yet.
-The Monarch to tacitly support Remain (see Prince William's speech) - but that has now been blown out of the water.
-The plucky Express to be the only Leave supporting press
To sum up, I would have expected the same ferocity of the media smear attack on Farage and UKIP, to be brought to bear on Leave, and at the moment I don't see that. I suppose it's because (despite Roger and Innocent Abroad's wishes) it's hard to smear half the population as being racist bigots.
To me it seems the Remain campaign is rapidly running out of people in the yellow pages to call and warn us all of the desperate dangers of leaving - we've had generals, businessmen, scientists, the French President, we're soon to get Obama... I can't wait for athletes, vets, and what's left of The Beatles. And I do feel the more it happens the less impact it has.
http://sciencenordic.com/norways-problem-immigration
The EU *could* be great. But it isn't.
And do you honestly think it will be?
All those things you suggested about running it are a lovely dream, but nothing more. Vote with your head (whichever way you go). If you vote with your heart, then your brain's redundant.
Sadly, as with your perfect EUvision, the problem is always the competence of the controllers fluctuates, even on the things they are supposed to be good at.
That's one of my problems with the EU generally - I expect governments to be a little crappy, as governance is hard and people are very difficult, but the EU system seems tailor made to be crappy, or doesn't actually work the way it's suppose to in practice anyway, so most potential is lost.
[On a related note, you probably know this already but Andromeda's been delayed to early 2017. And there's murmuring about a Dragon Age Tactics game along the lines of XCOM or Fire Emblem].
Mr. Dodd, I wonder if there's an English referee.
Interesting. Clarkson is talking about the kind of the Europe I could be seduced by, as I once blogged for the Telegraph.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100238999/heres-how-i-would-sell-the-european-union-if-i-had-to/
The problem is that this "stay in to fix it" approach has been tested to destruction. Whether lovebombing them under Blair or playing hardball under Cameron, the EU has shown they are impervious to reform. It took years for Cameron to get slight reductions to child benefits for some new EU migrants. Clearly broad structural reform just cannot be done.
Frankly thinking we will stay in a bit more to get reform at this stage is like the alcoholic who has destroyed his life with binge after binge thinking he can handle just one drink. Its blind hope over experience.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100238999/heres-how-i-would-sell-the-european-union-if-i-had-to/
The problem is that this "stay in to fix it" approach has been tested to destruction. Whether lovebombing them under Blair or playing hardball under Cameron, the EU has shown they are impervious to reform. It took years for Cameron to get slight reductions to child benefits for some new EU migrants. Clearly broad structural reform just cannot be done.
Frankly thinking we will stay in a bit more to get reform at this stage is like the alcoholic who has destroyed his life with binge after binge thinking he can handle just one drink. Its blind hope over experience.
What is the main reform that you would like the EU to undertake?
Europe is great (as a great lady once told us) because of competition and dare we say it rivalry over the centuries, not some sort of grotesque centrally planned superstate. To mush it all together and assign ridiculous 'competencies' to each part, would be to destroy the essence of what made it great in the first place.
Reuters Polling picking up a shift to Trump, which one should expect given the good past few days he has had. Win big in Illinois, Missouri and NC then those almost become WTA.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2
Missouri should be good for Trump, big southern influence (see Ride with Devil, the Outlaw Josey Wales and, of course, Jesse James was Confederate Bushwhacker) with East St Louis there too as well as a fair bit of industrial decline.
On DA Tactics, it was a Bioware bigwig who asked via Twitter if people would play it (a resounding yes was the answer). I think that'd be great, if they got the mechanics right.
Frankly thinking we will stay in a bit more to get reform at this stage is like the alcoholic who has destroyed his life with binge after binge thinking he can handle just one drink. Its blind hope over experience.
What is the main reform that you would like the EU to undertake?
Protection of non-Euro nations from Eurozone hegemony.
Back on topic, I wasn't sure about 4) at first, but on reflection I can see the appeal for Cameron, Osborne and others, combined with 2), so the reasoning seems sound.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/31/the-other-france
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msv9ufCyQJM
TRUMP will shake Gov't to it's boots.
Out of about 100 contacts we got just two - TWO - for Leave. Might be a coincidence, but very unusual to find such a weight of opinion on one side in any election. I'd say Remain has already sewn up at least 70% of the vote in this area.
I'm very curious to know how many of the Arab and African refugees, bona fide or bogus, who claim to want asylum in the UK really want to live in the USA. Most of them, I'd imagine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z4jBZmeLGo