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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on when Osborne ceases to be Chancellor

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pong said:

    RodCrosby said:
    He's not going to come 3rd.

    If you think he will, I'm offering evens.

    I'm not that bothered whether he does or he doesn't. Just reporting the polls. His vote seems to be collapsing everywhere [except DC]...
    People don't back losers.

    What's the latest in DC? Has Pulps got any chance of his £13 odd?
    Rubio squeaked it over Kasich, and ironically now has another Rule 40 state.

    Almost certainly the last good news of any sort Rubio will receive this cycle...
    How many rule 40 do each of the candidates have now ?

    Marco: DC; Puerto Rico
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    stodge said:



    Loved that sarcastic quip from George Osborne this morning "we worked hard in government to make sure the Lib Dems could write their memoirs" - lol.

    It won't be too long if the previous thread is correct until Osborne has the opportunity to pen his own litany of self-justification.

    It's only fair that Osborne is very pleased with himself because it balances the fact that no-one else is.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The EU has given free movement to Turkey this week from June. They've already got free trade.

    Its membership goodies without membership

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    No, the Schengen zone is to allow Turks to enter it without a visa. Just as we allow Canadians to come to the UK without a visa.
    I thought the visa free was to apply to the whole EU not just the Schengen zone. The UK and Ireland are not in Schengen yet there is no requirement for visas to travel here for anyone already legally entitled to be in the EU.

    That said I agree that Leave are being stupid trying to big up the Turkey accession stuff. It plays to entirely the wrong kind of message and as an argument is so full of holes that it just makes them look daft.
    Is that because we have an agreement with Schengen? This deal will not apply to the UK.
    No it is nothing to do with a deal with Schengen. It is a basic principle of the EU that anyone who has a legal right to be in the EU has a right to be anywhere within the EU. It is the fundamental principle of freedom of movement. I am not sure if or how the UK has an opt out of any deal that is done with Turkey on visa free travel.

    But as many of us on both sides of the EU debate have pointed out before this is entirely separate to Schengen, the purpose of which is to augment the Freedom of movement principle by having the additional removal of any checks at borders or on internal movements within its area. Being outside Schengen does not mean we can refuse entry to anyone who legally has a right to be in the UK under the Freedom of movement principle. What it does mean is that we have the ability to monitor who is moving in and out of the country and to catch and refuse those who have manged to get into the rest of the EU but do not have the right to be here.
  • Options
    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    The EU has given free movement to Turkey this week from June. They've already got free trade.

    Its membership goodies without membership

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    No, the Schengen zone is to allow Turks to enter it without a visa. Just as we allow Canadians to come to the UK without a visa.
    Though if "eurosceptic" Hammond had his way, all Schengen visas could come to UK.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    tyson said:

    kle4

    You should have stood firm instead of being drawn into the short term mire of pbCOM nastiness. Merkel will be judged by the gentle hand of history where she will be viewed as one of the most enlightened, and compassionate leaders in European history.

    I'd rather stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Merkel, rather than the particularly vile, narcissistic seant and his like who couldn't see what is good if it dropped down on them.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Merkel's style and approach has worked well for Germany for many years now, but eventually it would cease to work, even if it is not quite now, strengths becoming weakness. Instinctual search for compromise can become simple indecisiveness, thoughtfulness can become dithering, intended compassion can become over generosity.

    If this is to be a serious problem for her, if it is, it has come about pretty quickly in political terms, and of her own making when it seemed she was still mostly unassailable.

    She went beyond compassion, and beyond over-generosity, into outright fecking lunacy. She is - without exaggeration - personally responsible for the deaths of many hundreds of migrants in the Med, who, without her insane promise, would never have risked the journey.

    For that alone she must be removed from office, and expelled from the history of the good. She did bad. She did very very very bad.
    A very poor decision indeed. I know we're all armchair generals, but outside of receiving pats on the back for being so wonderful, it was hard to see why she thought it was a good decision. And I say that as someone who was perfectly happy for the UK to take a lot more refugees than we offered to do. But that method was just so wrong.
    You don't think that Merkel's policy has played with the fire of boosting the far right?

    If we're lucky, Merkel will simply go down as someone who inadvertently created a huge amount of social unrest. If we're not lucky then all the good work of the last seventy years could be undone very quickly.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,118
    edited March 2016
    tyson said:

    kle4

    You should have stood firm instead of being drawn into the short term mire of pbCOM nastiness. Merkel will be judged by the gentle hand of history where she will be viewed as one of the most enlightened, and compassionate leaders in European history.

    I'd rather stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Merkel, rather than the particularly vile, narcissistic seant and his like who couldn't see what is good if it dropped down on them.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Merkel's style and approach has worked well for Germany for many years now, but eventually it would cease to work, even if it is not quite now, strengths becoming weakness. Instinctual search for compromise can become simple indecisiveness, thoughtfulness can become dithering, intended compassion can become over generosity.

    If this is to be a serious problem for her, if it is, it has come about pretty quickly in political terms, and of her own making when it seemed she was still mostly unassailable.

    She went beyond compassion, and beyond over-generosity, into outright fecking lunacy. She is - without exaggeration - personally responsible for the deaths of many hundreds of migrants in the Med, who, without her insane promise, would never have risked the journey.

    For that alone she must be removed from office, and expelled from the history of the good. She did bad. She did very very very bad.
    A very poor decision indeed. I know we're all armchair generals, but outside of receiving pats on the back for being so wonderful, it was hard to see why she thought it was a good decision. And I say that as someone who was perfectly happy for the UK to take a lot more refugees than we offered to do. But that method was just so wrong.
    I am standing firm on offering more places to refugees than we currently have done, and standing firm that her heart was in the right place and, from those who know Germany, that she has been a very good chancellor all told. But that decision was not actually compassionate, it just had the appearance of it and was not the way to achieve a compassionate end. Even good leaders make poor decisions.

    I don't regard that as being nasty, personally. Whatever the worthiness of her intentions, or the worth of her other achievements, her judgement on that decision seemed at the time fundamentally flawed, and the rolling back of the rhetoric from unqualified acceptance of all to what we see today from Germany, acknowledging problems, would show that was indeed the case I think.

    It is not descending into short termism, as you put it - on the contrary, it was Merkel who, quite out of character it would seem, who acted with such short term focus. That some with nasty views would disagree with her position then does not mean her decision was good, even if her intent was.
  • Options
    PClipp said:

    Loved that sarcastic quip from George Osborne this morning "we worked hard in government to make sure the Lib Dems could write their memoirs" - lol.

    Is it any wonder that George Osborne is one of the most disliked people in the Conservative Party?
    No.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pong said:

    RodCrosby said:
    He's not going to come 3rd.

    If you think he will, I'm offering evens.

    I'm not that bothered whether he does or he doesn't. Just reporting the polls. His vote seems to be collapsing everywhere [except DC]...
    People don't back losers.

    What's the latest in DC? Has Pulps got any chance of his £13 odd?
    Rubio squeaked it over Kasich, and ironically now has another Rule 40 state.

    Almost certainly the last good news of any sort Rubio will receive this cycle...
    How many rule 40 do each of the candidates have now ?

    Marco: DC; Puerto Rico
    Trump 7, Cruz 4.5 [WY are only halfway through, but it looks like Cruz, so 5 if you like], Rubio 2, Kasich 0.

    Trump will go over the 8 on Tuesday, Kasich might get to 1...
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The EU has given free movement to Turkey this week from June. They've already got free trade.

    Its membership goodies without membership



    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...

    No, the Schengen zone is to allow Turks to enter it without a visa. Just as we allow Canadians to come to the UK without a visa.
    I thought the visa free was to apply to the whole EU not just the Schengen zone. The UK and Ireland are not in Schengen yet there is no requirement for visas to travel here for anyone already legally entitled to be in the EU.

    That said I agree that Leave are being stupid trying to big up the Turkey accession stuff. It plays to entirely the wrong kind of message and as an argument is so full of holes that it just makes them look daft.
    Is that because we have an agreement with Schengen? This deal will not apply to the UK.
    No it is nothing to do with a deal with Schengen. It is a basic principle of the EU that anyone who has a legal right to be in the EU has a right to be anywhere within the EU. It is the fundamental principle of freedom of movement. I am not sure if or how the UK has an opt out of any deal that is done with Turkey on visa free travel.

    But as many of us on both sides of the EU debate have pointed out before this is entirely separate to Schengen, the purpose of which is to augment the Freedom of movement principle by having the additional removal of any checks at borders or on internal movements within its area. Being outside Schengen does not mean we can refuse entry to anyone who legally has a right to be in the UK under the Freedom of movement principle. What it does mean is that we have the ability to monitor who is moving in and out of the country and to catch and refuse those who have manged to get into the rest of the EU but do not have the right to be here.
    I thought freedom of movement within the EU only related to citizens of EU member states?
  • Options

    FWIW, I don't think anyone in the current Tory cabinet rank would be anything like as good as Dave has been as Prime Minister.. If Boris gets it, then the party will sink. Its alright been a bit of a buffoon when you don't have any decisions to take.

    Of those of Cabinet rank, Teresa May is the steadiest pair of hands by a long way and is probably one of the longest serving Home secretaries in centuries.

    Given David Cameron's aversion to reshuffles, it would not be surprising if similar claims are made for half the Cabinet and the Junior Minister for Dog Licences.
    Leaving aside party prejudices, May's survival in that post is noteworthy. New Labour had six in thirteen years; May is nearly six years not out.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Secretary#Home_Secretaries.2C_2001.E2.80.93present
    The Home Secretary and indeed the Home Office as a major Gov't Department just seems much lower profile than was previously the case ..... less legislation being enacted and no pesky nuisance factors such as ID cards, etc.
    Don't forget half the department was hived off to Justice.
    We also have the role of the gang of four in the Coalition and now the First Secretary of State role of Osborne a defacto Chief Operating Officer. This role effectively demotes everyone else.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    At least 27 dead and 75 injured in blast in Turkish capital Ankara https://t.co/sXNQuDKEqi
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    The idea that any Cypriot politician could back Turkey's accession to the EU is beyond ridiculous. And it requires all 28 members of the EU to agree to any country joining.
    Why is a President of the EU (with Merkel's backing) discussing it if it is impossible?
    The President of the EU can say what he likes.

    But a new country requires a new treaty signed by all 28 members of the EU.

    And you are woefully ignorant of Cyrpus if you think that any Cypriot government could vote for Turkey's accession while there Turkish troops stationed on the island.
    The EU has ways of railroading things through against national interests. It would start with Turkey getting a new status which was almost the same as membership.... Oh look that is what is already starting to happen..
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    Osborne is the 9th First Secretary of State. None of them went on to become PM.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,941
    I have been in York over the weekend for the Lib Dem spring conference. As usual the city was looking wonderful in the spring sunshine - although still traces of the devastating floods. Cracking debates on both fracking and diversity with significant votes at the end. Interesting speech from Tim Farron - his two main messages were back to community politics and let's be nice to refugees. I am sure the first will lead to a political upswing amongst the electorate - not sure about the second.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pong said:

    RodCrosby said:
    He's not going to come 3rd.

    If you think he will, I'm offering evens.

    I'm not that bothered whether he does or he doesn't. Just reporting the polls. His vote seems to be collapsing everywhere [except DC]...
    People don't back losers.

    What's the latest in DC? Has Pulps got any chance of his £13 odd?
    Rubio squeaked it over Kasich, and ironically now has another Rule 40 state.

    Almost certainly the last good news of any sort Rubio will receive this cycle...
    How many rule 40 do each of the candidates have now ?

    Marco: DC; Puerto Rico
    Trump 7, Cruz 4.5 [WY are only halfway through, but it looks like Cruz, so 5 if you like], Rubio 2, Kasich 0.

    Trump will go over the 8 on Tuesday, Kasich might get to 1...
    Trump is very fortunate to have Ted Cruz in second place.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241

    Mr. Jessop, yes and no. Cameron doesn't like doing reshuffles very often. I'd guess the life expectancy, as it were, of a Cameron minister must be miles better than one of Blair's.

    I've just had a check of health secretaries: New Labour had six again, Cameron 2.

    And if Cameron wants stability in leadership positions, he's very wise. You cannot learn the job if you're being swapped out every year.
    Sorry Josias, my memory's going. Time for tea.
    I bet it's not as bad as mine at the moment! It's a fine time to invest in makers and sellers of post-it notes, biros and notepads ... ;)
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    It's not paranoia, it's scaremongering.
    Yes, that's a better word.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    tyson said:

    kle4

    You should have stood firm instead of being drawn into the short term mire of pbCOM nastiness. Merkel will be judged by the gentle hand of history where she will be viewed as one of the most enlightened, and compassionate leaders in European history.

    I'd rather stand shoulder to shoulder with the likes of Merkel, rather than the particularly vile, narcissistic seant and his like who couldn't see what is good if it dropped down on them.

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Merkel's style and approach has worked well for Germany for many years now, but eventually it would cease to work, even if it is not quite now, strengths becoming weakness. Instinctual search for compromise can become simple indecisiveness, thoughtfulness can become dithering, intended compassion can become over generosity.

    If this is to be a serious problem for her, if it is, it has come about pretty quickly in political terms, and of her own making when it seemed she was still mostly unassailable.

    She went beyond compassion, and beyond over-generosity, into outright fecking lunacy. She is - without exaggeration - personally responsible for the deaths of many hundreds of migrants in the Med, who, without her insane promise, would never have risked the journey.

    For that alone she must be removed from office, and expelled from the history of the good. She did bad. She did very very very bad.
    A very poor decision indeed. I know we're all armchair generals, but outside of receiving pats on the back for being so wonderful, it was hard to see why she thought it was a good decision. And I say that as someone who was perfectly happy for the UK to take a lot more refugees than we offered to do. But that method was just so wrong.
    Merkel is a classic example of the road to hell being paved with good intentions. She is directly responsible for the deaths of migrants who she has encouraged to make dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean and she has made the migrant crisis far worse by her criminally idiotic behavior than if she had said nothing at all.

    The one person who has come out of this crisis well is Cameron who made exactly the right call on how the migrants could best be helped and who has been doing something concrete and practical rather than pandering to the thoughtless 'something must be done' brigade of which you are a perfect example.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Awaiting Der Trump in Cincinnati...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMAt-B89k88

    warm-up act: Friedrich Nietzsche und Orchester der Bayreuther Festspiele
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    The idea that any Cypriot politician could back Turkey's accession to the EU is beyond ridiculous. And it requires all 28 members of the EU to agree to any country joining.
    Why is a President of the EU (with Merkel's backing) discussing it if it is impossible?
    The President of the EU can say what he likes.

    But a new country requires a new treaty signed by all 28 members of the EU.

    And you are woefully ignorant of Cyrpus if you think that any Cypriot government could vote for Turkey's accession while there Turkish troops stationed on the island.
    The EU has ways of railroading things through against national interests. It would start with Turkey getting a new status which was almost the same as membership.... Oh look that is what is already starting to happen..
    In what way? All that is happening is citizens of Turkey are allowed to enter Schengen without visa, the same as :

    Americans, Argentenians, Brazilians, Colombians, Canadians, Japanese, Koreans, Malaysians, Singaporeans, and many others.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,222
    Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

    A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

    There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

    So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.
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    slade said:

    I have been in York over the weekend for the Lib Dem spring conference. As usual the city was looking wonderful in the spring sunshine - although still traces of the devastating floods. Cracking debates on both fracking and diversity with significant votes at the end. Interesting speech from Tim Farron - his two main messages were back to community politics and let's be nice to refugees. I am sure the first will lead to a political upswing amongst the electorate - not sure about the second.

    What are the expectations for the LDs at these May elections? Scotland, Wales, English council and London?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241

    Merkel is a classic example of the road to hell being paved with good intentions. She is directly responsible for the deaths of migrants who she has encouraged to make dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean and she has made the migrant crisis far worse by her criminally idiotic behavior than if she had said nothing at all.

    The one person who has come out of this crisis well is Cameron who made exactly the right call on how the migrants could best be helped and who has been doing something concrete and practical rather than pandering to the thoughtless 'something must be done' brigade of which you are a perfect example.

    Merkel's approach was very emotional and appears heartfelt, even if her decision may have been a consequence of Germany's history. Cameron's approach was very cold and logical. I have no doubt that they both considered the other approach, as well as others.

    Yet it appears that Cameron's strategy was correct. If Merkel had done the same then many more lives might have been saved, at least in the short term.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    The idea that any Cypriot politician could back Turkey's accession to the EU is beyond ridiculous. And it requires all 28 members of the EU to agree to any country joining.
    Why is a President of the EU (with Merkel's backing) discussing it if it is impossible?
    To make it look like the €6bn bung isn't going to be pissed away completely.
  • Options
    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

    A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

    There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

    So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

    DRS haven't ordered 35 class 68s for nothing. Mk4s to be cascaded, the 91s I'm not so sure.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241
    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

    A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

    There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

    So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

    Yes, I've heard that might be a problem if they decide to cascade the 91s. The somewhat curvaceous nature of the MML might favour updated Pendelinos (tilting trains), but I don't know if there will be enough sets required for a brand-new train type.

    Otherwise, an extension to the IEP order. But I dislike the IEP as it is - the whole IEP project might be a disaster for the railways. Perhaps.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    The idea that any Cypriot politician could back Turkey's accession to the EU is beyond ridiculous. And it requires all 28 members of the EU to agree to any country joining.
    Why is a President of the EU (with Merkel's backing) discussing it if it is impossible?
    To make it look like the €6bn bung isn't going to be pissed away completely.
    Yeah, Turkey should be left to deal with millions of migrants on its own, with no help from outside. Because, well, just because. And any attempt to help them is obviously a 'bung', because you say so.

    (Although I'd like to see Jordan and Lebanon also get help. the former should be easier than the latter).
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @COdendahl: Whoever wants to spin CDU losses in Baden-Württemberg as the result of Merkel’s #refugee policies has not looked at the data.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,222

    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

    A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

    There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

    So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

    Yes, I've heard that might be a problem if they decide to cascade the 91s. The somewhat curvaceous nature of the MML might favour updated Pendelinos (tilting trains), but I don't know if there will be enough sets required for a brand-new train type.

    Otherwise, an extension to the IEP order. But I dislike the IEP as it is - the whole IEP project might be a disaster for the railways. Perhaps.
    What are your concerns about IEP? I really don't think much of the bi mode idea. Someone was telling me that it won't take long for the trains carrying fuel to have wasted enough energy to have funded the electrification of lines beyond what is planed for the GWML and ECML.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    New thread btw
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,941

    slade said:

    I have been in York over the weekend for the Lib Dem spring conference. As usual the city was looking wonderful in the spring sunshine - although still traces of the devastating floods. Cracking debates on both fracking and diversity with significant votes at the end. Interesting speech from Tim Farron - his two main messages were back to community politics and let's be nice to refugees. I am sure the first will lead to a political upswing amongst the electorate - not sure about the second.

    What are the expectations for the LDs at these May elections? Scotland, Wales, English council and London?
    2011 was a bad year for the Lib Dems in local elections. Therefore 2015 should have been better - unfortunately it coincided with the GE and so the 'donkey vote' came out to boost Labour and the Conservatives. 2012 was a better result and so I expect a steady as she goes result. The mayoral election result in London will be poor although Caroline Pidgeon is actually a very good candidate. In Scotland I expect little change although Orkney and Shetland are always 'interesting'. In Wales I expect Kirsty Williams to hold on and we could win Ceredigion. I hope Eluned Parrott holds her list seat as she is a potential star.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,241
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does anyone else have problems signing into the site via iPhone? I can never login properly to comment.

    A bit late now, but for those interested I was going to make a comment about the electrification of the Midland Mainline which has been 'unpaused'. As far as I know there are no plans as yet to purchase new electric trains to work this line. One option would be to cascade the Class 91s and the Mark 4 coaches as they are replaced on the East Coast Main Line by the IEP trains.

    There is, however, a problem with the 91s. Leaving aside the fact that they will soon be 30 years old, they don't have the best acceleration. In fact they would be a downgrade on the current Class 222 Meridians that work between St Pancras and Sheffield. This would increase journey times and reduce capacity on the line.

    So the electrification of the Midland Mainline would be great - but only if the government is prepared to help fund the purchase of some new electrics to work the line.

    Yes, I've heard that might be a problem if they decide to cascade the 91s. The somewhat curvaceous nature of the MML might favour updated Pendelinos (tilting trains), but I don't know if there will be enough sets required for a brand-new train type.

    Otherwise, an extension to the IEP order. But I dislike the IEP as it is - the whole IEP project might be a disaster for the railways. Perhaps.
    What are your concerns about IEP? I really don't think much of the bi mode idea. Someone was telling me that it won't take long for the trains carrying fuel to have wasted enough energy to have funded the electrification of lines beyond what is planed for the GWML and ECML.
    Someone may have told you wrong given the cost rises of the GWML electrification ...

    My problem with the IEP project are based on several things. Firstly, since privatisation we've had the rather good idea of letting the customers (TOCs) specify the trains they want, and then organise their purchase by the ROSCOs, from whom they are leased. The IEP was specified by the Department of Transport in intimate detail, without much TOC input.

    Secondly, the financials are complex, even by the standards of the privatised railways.

    Thirdly, when the contract changed due to electrification plans and (I think) Hitachi admitting they could not reach the original agreed specifications, the contract was not reopened to all bidders. Instead Hitachi got to deliver less for more money.

    The taxpayer and passenger may well end up paying for the IEP project in many ways.

    https://www.nao.org.uk/report/procuring-new-trains-2/
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Merkel's style and approach has worked well for Germany for many years now, but eventually it would cease to work, even if it is not quite now, strengths becoming weakness. Instinctual search for compromise can become simple indecisiveness, thoughtfulness can become dithering, intended compassion can become over generosity.

    If this is to be a serious problem for her, if it is, it has come about pretty quickly in political terms, and of her own making when it seemed she was still mostly unassailable.

    She went beyond compassion, and beyond over-generosity, into outright fecking lunacy. She is - without exaggeration - personally responsible for the deaths of many hundreds of migrants in the Med, who, without her insane promise, would never have risked the journey.

    For that alone she must be removed from office, and expelled from the history of the good. She did bad. She did very very very bad.
    A very poor decision indeed. I know we're all armchair generals, but outside of receiving pats on the back for being so wonderful, it was hard to see why she thought it was a good decision. And I say that as someone who was perfectly happy for the UK to take a lot more refugees than we offered to do. But that method was just so wrong.
    Merkel probably realises that many more migrants will continue to come to the EU and that other nations in the EU are unlikely to take many, so Germany will have to take them. The German nation is forecast to lose population so many newcomers will be welcome by business which wants to help her build Greater Germany.

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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Miss Plato, Osborne sees the danger. Turkey joining is not a popular prospect. His line's worthless in real terms, but some will buy it.

    But there's no credible way Turkey will be joining: they've made little progress on the acquis commaitairre (sp), and then they won't get all the other EU members to vote for them to join, especially Greek Cyprus.

    Besides all that, Erdogan might not be the person to take Turkey towards fulfilling the acquis commaitairre, even if his recent bust-up with Russia forces him to look westwards once more. His rather fractious relationship with the media (in which he quite resembles his new enemy Putin) isn't exactly in vogue within the EU.

    Leave's paranoia about Turkey joining is ridiculous, especially when they have the nerve to call remain Project Fear ...
    It's not paranoia, it's scaremongering.
    Yes, that's a better word.
    I see no reason why LEAVE shouldn't have a few scaremongerings of its own. You can't have one side doing the scaring and then complain when the other side retaliates in kind more effectively.
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    The turnout at these rallies is amazing, arriving 11hrs early to get a standing room space.

    Given that the Turnout in the 2012 Presidential Election was only 58.2% of Registered Voters (hell, it was only 61.6% in 2008, Obama's breakthrough year, then if Trump adds another 10% from previous non-voters and diverts 5% of the Democrats' previous votes from their Angry/Disappointed ranks, then he puts a big challenge upon Clinton to find new support which didn't turnout for the Democrats in 2012.
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