politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers.

To say that the G20 finance ministers have been nobbled by GO or are acting as his stooges etc is a straw man argument.

They have been asked to make some sympathetic noises to help a fellow world leader with his little domestic difficulty and are obliging him.

Exactly, if a government finance minister at G20 requests his fellow leaders say there is a risk to his own country, who does Richard think is going to object to that? Especially when most of the other leaders want the same result in the referendum for their own entirely selfish reasons that we have no reason to care about (rest of Europe not wanting to lose us and our contributions, USA not wanting to have the EU be without us).

Finance minister from UK proposes a line saying there is a risk to the UK, nobody objects, motion carried. Who Richard would you have expected to object to Osborne's request?

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to David Cameron at the Welsh Conservative Conference he is repeating the same theme as all his previous speeches that we are safer economically and in security and that leaving is a huge risk to jobs and prosperity and that leave have no coherent narrative of what the UK would be like outside the EU. Andrew T Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, who is for leave seemed somewhat embarrassed as DC received a good response from the delegates on concluding his speech. Very strange times but I believe that DC will continue with the same speech throughout the campaign as it does seem very credible

You think the EU is waving.

I think its drowning.

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's a fool or a knave.

If the risk to the UK is as terrible as he says, then he was irresponsible to hold a referendum. You don't offer a child sandwich fillings of cheese, ham, or razorblades and then shout at them when they ask for the razorblades you offered.

If the risk to the UK isn't as terrible as Cameron says, he's lying.

taffys said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to David Cameron at the Welsh Conservative Conference he is repeating the same theme as all his previous speeches that we are safer economically and in security and that leaving is a huge risk to jobs and prosperity and that leave have no coherent narrative of what the UK would be like outside the EU. Andrew T Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, who is for leave seemed somewhat embarrassed as DC received a good response from the delegates on concluding his speech. Very strange times but I believe that DC will continue with the same speech throughout the campaign as it does seem very credible

You think the EU is waving.

I think its drowning.

I think drowning may be a bit unfortunate but I am sure you used it innocently

AndyJS said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Polls show about 90% of Nationalists supporting Remain whereas Unionists are about 2 to 1 in favour of Leave. Since the latter have only a slight demographic advantage these days, Remain should carry Northern Ireland fairly comfortably, but that of course assumes roughly equal turnout on both sides. If Unionists are more enthusiastic about voting it could be close.

Remain will win NI.

The last polls showed a slight narrowing of the vote but the gap is huge.

He compared Mr Corbyn's leadership to an episode of The Simpsons where Homer is repeatedly injured while being rescued from the bottom of a ravine.

"It’s this scene that most accurately describes life in the Labour Party right now," he said. "The fear, the pain and for some – like an overweight middle-aged man who believes he can jump a canyon on a child’s skateboard – the baseless optimism in the face of all available evidence.

"It goes something like this: sovereignty of the Falkland Islands [bump], raising money for the Stop the War Coalition [crunch], campaigning against party policy alongside CND [smash].

"Finding ourselves in the back of the ambulance, it sets off, and instantly crashes as we roll out backwards. Gerry Downing [smash], Mark Serwotka’s deselection joy [crunch], Ken Livingstone [smash, crunch, smash]."

Mr Reed added: "Yet it isn’t funny. Ultimately the horrendous self-inflicted mistakes of the last six months have not been about politics per se.

- See more at: https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/former-labour-frontbencher-suggests-jeremy-corbyn-should-be-replaced#sthash.0cuU9t7x.dpuf

TCPoliticalBetting said:

AlastairMeeks said:

8 April is looking good for me at present. I'll come wearing armour plating.

Inside your trousers?

The balls of steel come pre-fitted.

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

Given at the last census those stating no religion was the fastest growing sector, religion isn't the sure fire indicator it was.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to David Cameron at the Welsh Conservative Conference he is repeating the same theme as all his previous speeches that we are safer economically and in security and that leaving is a huge risk to jobs and prosperity and that leave have no coherent narrative of what the UK would be like outside the EU. Andrew T Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, who is for leave seemed somewhat embarrassed as DC received a good response from the delegates on concluding his speech. Very strange times but I believe that DC will continue with the same speech throughout the campaign as it does seem very credible

You think the EU is waving.

I think its drowning.

I think drowning may be a bit unfortunate but I am sure you used it innocently

Its a literary reference from the Stevie Smith poem.

Plato_Says said:

America Elects
Another Maryland poll:

Trump 34
Cruz 25
Kasich 18
Rubio 14

(Baltimore Sun, LV, March 4-8)

Maryland isn't until April. Half these candidates will be gone by then.

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

taffys said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's a fool or a knave.

If the risk to the UK is as terrible as he says, then he was irresponsible to hold a referendum. You don't offer a child sandwich fillings of cheese, ham, or razorblades and then shout at them when they ask for the razorblades you offered.

If the risk to the UK isn't as terrible as Cameron says, he's lying.

Another lying accusation.

Stop calling it a lie you fool. It is an opinion. It is an interpretation of the actions of David Cameron. It is not being offered up as a fact, like the price of fish is a fact.

I am not a fool and insults do your argument no favours. You are just wrong by saying that David Cameron should not have offered a referendum if he felt there was a risk to the UK. It was a decision for democracy and he should be complemented for it.

Florida - WTSP/Mason Dixon

Trump 36 .. Rubio 30 .. Cruz 17 .. Kasich 6

Clinton 68 .. Sanders 23

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's a fool or a knave.

If the risk to the UK is as terrible as he says, then he was irresponsible to hold a referendum. You don't offer a child sandwich fillings of cheese, ham, or razorblades and then shout at them when they ask for the razorblades you offered.

If the risk to the UK isn't as terrible as Cameron says, he's lying.

Another lying accusation.

Stop calling it a lie you fool. It is an opinion. It is an interpretation of the actions of David Cameron. It is not being offered up as a fact, like the price of fish is a fact.

I am not a fool and insults do your argument no favours. You are just wrong by saying that David Cameron should not have offered a referendum if he felt there was a risk to the UK. It was a decision for democracy and he should be complemented for it.

Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

No religion and not stated is 16%

anothernick said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

It seemed to work well enough as a general election strategy.

At the general election it was believable.

rcs1000 said:

weejonnie said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Who knows?

I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident

If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.

What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?

I don't want any human misery. I am merely pointing out that Leave will benefit from disruptions.

The question was rhetorical - Hungary has already declared one. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/europes-border-crisis/europe-s-refugee-crisis-hungary-declares-state-emergency-over-migrants-n534746

I don't want human misery - I especially don't want UK human misery. When push comes to shove, however , sometimes you have to do "the dreadful algebra of necessity".

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

I thought backing Rubio in DC was like backing Corbyn in Islington !

Wonder if the Maryland poll affects my chances there...

At least you got outsider odds, not favourite odds.

Taken my £8 out at 2-1, so just +13.43 to nothing with Rubio now

Couldn't have taken £4 any way?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.

If Cameron were truly promising "the horrors of Hell" you would have a point but he's not. People use those colourful metaphors but in reality all he's predicting are some negative effects, mostly economic, which while sub-optimal would be easily survivable. Also, others disagree with him about the risk and no one can say for certain who is right. It's not unreasonable to put it to a vote and then, as Cameron is doing, argue forcefully for your position.

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

No religion and not stated is 16%

My figures are from "Religion or religion brought up" (which was called Community Background in 2001), which effectively reduces "don't knows".

If you want plain old "religion" it's:

Protestant 42%
Catholic 41%
Other 1%
Not stated/none 17%

I don't get this opposition to calling politicians liars. All politicians lie. It is a basic part of their skill set and the most successful ones are those who can lie most convincingly. They lie by ommission, they lie by conflation or exaggeration and they lie by outright false claims.

What they don't do is lie by ignorance. Lying is a conscious decision and involves knowing misrepresentation .

So in the end if a politician says something which is not true they are indeed either lying or ignorant.

In that case why should we, as the people from either side of the argument who know that what has been said is false, not make it clear that a lie has been told?

If politicians don't like being called liars then they should stop lying.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

Bear in mind Antrim has 10x the population of Fermanagh!

PeterC said:

anothernick said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

It seemed to work well enough as a general election strategy.

At the general election it was believable.

It also worked in the indyref, the av referendum and many general elections in the past - 1992 being an obvious example. Fear of the alternative is a factor in all life decisions - changing jobs, moving house etc etc.

@JournoStephen: This is where we've got to in Scotland: The BBC forced to vouchsafe the nationality of its audience members. https://t.co/8KjMTgVUge

AndyJS said:

Remain dips below 50% in Scotland:

So, if 'England" votes IN, and Scotland votes Out...

felix said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's a fool or a knave.

If the risk to the UK is as terrible as he says, then he was irresponsible to hold a referendum. You don't offer a child sandwich fillings of cheese, ham, or razorblades and then shout at them when they ask for the razorblades you offered.

If the risk to the UK isn't as terrible as Cameron says, he's lying.

What a silly post. If Cameron had ignored the manifesto commitment you'd be screeching foul. You've got you're cake - eat it.

So if he believed that leaving the EU would be do utterly catastrophic for the UK then why did he even make the manifesto commitment?

Scott_P said:

AndyJS said:

Remain dips below 50% in Scotland:

So, if 'England" votes IN, and Scotland votes Out...

I'm really hoping that happens. But probably as likely as a Tory FM!

felix said:

JonathanD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.

Presumably under your logic he should also refuse to hold a General Election until Labour have got rid of Corbyn and Momentum and reformed into a central left Blairite party, given the danger they would be to the UK?

Lol nail on the head!

No.. Legally he has to have a GE. He did not have to have a referendum.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

No religion and not stated is 16%

My figures are from "Religion or religion brought up" (which was called Community Background in 2001), which effectively reduces "don't knows".

If you want plain old "religion" it's:

Protestant 42%
Catholic 41%
Other 1%
Not stated/none 17%

LOL

grow up there did you :-)

the place is a damned sight more complex than proddy \ catholic.

Are you counting the 1% of the population that is polish as british catholics or irish catholics ?

The cultural aspects are better explained below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland

Is it the Proddies that hate Ozzy or do the Catholics acknowledge that Ozzy is up there with the Virgin Mary in terms of divinity ?

It's more nuanced than that. The proddies hate Ozzy because a useless fkr whereas as the catholics hate Ozzy becasue he's fking useless

Sunil_Prasannan said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

Bear in mind Antrim has 10x the population of Fermanagh!

Yes, hence the slight plurality for the Protestant community across NI.

Just for fun, given the Republic also had their Census in 2011, including the remaining Ulster counties of Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, one gets (remember, this is just for a bit of fun!):

Catholic 50.8%
Protestant 42.7%
Other 1.2%
None/not stated 5.4%

The whole of Ulster has only had a protestant majority in the late eighteenth century primarly due to Scots migration. Then they got bored headed off to the Appalchians and became hillbillies.

In any case your're using the wrong conuties. True Ulster includes Louth not Cavan.

Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people and I am in favour of free movement of labour in so far as it has benefited the Country and with unemployment at just over 5% it seems to have been absorbed. We control or own borders and therefore we do not need to accept any quotas of refugees as proposed by the EU. We are also out of the Euro and have an agreement that we are excluded from ever closer Union. Mark Carney indicated at the Treasury select Committee that David Cameron had secured a good deal and as I am not well versed in the City his comments satisfied me. I do feel that by being a Member we will have an influence and I believe David Cameron has influenced many leaders and that this process will continue and indeed may become a vital part of protecting our own interests from within. If all else fails and the EU reject David Cameron's agreement I believe the UK would demand that Section 50 of the Treaty was served on the EU. As far as leaving is concerned I believe leave have to come together under one policy whether it is EEA/EFTA etc and sell that policy, as anything else would be misleading the voters. If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. I hope this has assisted in placing my position on record at the present time, but of course circumstance could change my view

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

Bear in mind Antrim has 10x the population of Fermanagh!

Yes, hence the slight plurality for the Protestant community across NI.

Just for fun, given the Republic also had their Census in 2011, including the remaining Ulster counties of Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, one gets (remember, this is just for a bit of fun!):

Catholic 50.8%
Protestant 42.7%
Other 1.2%
None/not stated 5.4%

The whole of Ulster has only had a protestant majority in the late eighteenth century primarly due to Scots migration. Then they got bored headed off to the Appalchians and became hillbillies.

In any case your're using the wrong conuties. True Ulster includes Louth not Cavan.

Yebbut that's like saying "True Scotland" includes Berwick!

Or "True England" includes Monmouth if you prefer

richardDodd said:

A Referendum is long overdue...Cameron offered it and we voted for it..now stop whining and get on with it...Suddenly the Brits have gone all wimpish..

But it’s too early, Nigel & Co. haven’t had time to frame the case for Leave yet.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people and I am in favour of free movement of labour in so far as it has benefited the Country and with unemployment at just over 5% it seems to have been absorbed. We control or own borders and therefore we do not need to accept any quotas of refugees as proposed by the EU. We are also out of the Euro and have an agreement that we are excluded from ever closer Union. Mark Carney indicated at the Treasury select Committee that David Cameron had secured a good deal and as I am not well versed in the City his comments satisfied me. I do feel that by being a Member we will have an influence and I believe David Cameron has influenced many leaders and that this process will continue and indeed may become a vital part of protecting our own interests from within. If all else fails and the EU reject David Cameron's agreement I believe the UK would demand that Section 50 of the Treaty was served on the EU. As far as leaving is concerned I believe leave have to come together under one policy whether it is EEA/EFTA etc and sell that policy, as anything else would be misleading the voters. If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. I hope this has assisted in placing my position on record at the present time, but of course circumstance could change my view

Who said that?

Mr. Wanderer, it's fair to say there's uncertainty about what happens if we leave (and, for that matter), if we stay. However, Cameron's stretching credibility beyond breaking point. Using terms like "Three million jobs at risk" is technically true. In the same way "Tens of millions of lives at risk every day" is technically true when discussing crossing the road. It's wildly misleading.

Mr. Felix, if someone promises me a cake and then uses spit instead of icing to top it off, they've kept their promise to give me a cake. That doesn't mean I'm going to be impressed by their culinary prowess.

'Are you counting the 1% of the population that is polish as british catholics or irish catholics ?'

That wiki article is fascinating. Especially the high shares of Catholics in the east of NI that identify as British rather than Irish. I wonder if this is the effect of them living in overwhelmingly Protestant areas and being 'acculturised' over time?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

OldKingCole said:

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Nah they'll vote Leave to stick two fingers up at Marty.

Exactly DUP are campaigning for Brexit. Who are Protestants going to follow, the DUP or Martin McGuinness?

I recall at the time of the last referendum that some evangelicals I knew were against because it was the Treaty of Rome!

What are the population percentages (by religion) for N Ireland now?

2011 religion or religion brought up in:

Protestant 48.4%
Catholic 45.1%
Other 0.9%
None/not stated 5.6%

According to my calculations (which are sometimes right!), of the historic 6 Counties, only Antrim and Down are majority Protestant (53% and 60%). Majority Catholic = Tyrone (65%), Londonderry (61%), Armagh (59%) and Fermanagh (59%)

Bear in mind Antrim has 10x the population of Fermanagh!

Yes, hence the slight plurality for the Protestant community across NI.

Just for fun, given the Republic also had their Census in 2011, including the remaining Ulster counties of Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, one gets (remember, this is just for a bit of fun!):

Catholic 50.8%
Protestant 42.7%
Other 1.2%
None/not stated 5.4%

The whole of Ulster has only had a protestant majority in the late eighteenth century primarly due to Scots migration. Then they got bored headed off to the Appalchians and became hillbillies.

In any case your're using the wrong conuties. True Ulster includes Louth not Cavan.

Yebbut that's like saying "True Scotland" includes Berwick!

Or "True England" includes Monmouth if you prefer

As I said you didn't grow up there. :-)

Hmmm. Louth is a wee bit more Catholic, and less Protestant than Cavan.

Louth has Gerry as a TD.

Going back to the thread header....

If Conservative supporters are evenly split between LEAVE and REMAIN, but the majority of Labour voters incline towards REMAIN, then it is very clear to me how REMAIN need to argue in order to win the vote.

And yet, since this referendum is really just a bit of Tory infighting, the argument is based in Tory terms.

On the one hand, there are arguments for REMAIN because LEAVE would be bad for the bankers and hedgefunders.

In contrast, there are arguments for REMAIN because Mr Cameron has got an excellent deal, and we ("we" in the sense of the Tory government, meaning Mr Cameron) can do whatever we like, despite the EU context.

If I were a Labour supporter, which I am not, I would be strongly tempted to vote against both arguments.

But how can I, in a black/white referendum question?

@DonnyFerguson: Trump is polling at 38% against Hillary.

Here's what 38% looks like. https://t.co/pkJAgDPvNU

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people and I am in favour of free movement of labour in so far as it has benefited the Country and with unemployment at just over 5% it seems to have been absorbed. We control or own borders and therefore we do not need to accept any quotas of refugees as proposed by the EU. We are also out of the Euro and have an agreement that we are excluded from ever closer Union. Mark Carney indicated at the Treasury select Committee that David Cameron had secured a good deal and as I am not well versed in the City his comments satisfied me. I do feel that by being a Member we will have an influence and I believe David Cameron has influenced many leaders and that this process will continue and indeed may become a vital part of protecting our own interests from within. If all else fails and the EU reject David Cameron's agreement I believe the UK would demand that Section 50 of the Treaty was served on the EU. As far as leaving is concerned I believe leave have to come together under one policy whether it is EEA/EFTA etc and sell that policy, as anything else would be misleading the voters. If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. I hope this has assisted in placing my position on record at the present time, but of course circumstance could change my view

Who said that?

Taffys at 4.21pm

watford30 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

snip ... If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. ...snip...

Is it the majority view though? Or is this part of the process to paint Leavers as 'Racists'?


I may have missed a bit. Who is accusing Leavers of being racist?

runnymede said:

'Are you counting the 1% of the population that is polish as british catholics or irish catholics ?'

That wiki article is fascinating. Especially the high shares of Catholics in the east of NI that identify as British rather than Irish. I wonder if this is the effect of them living in overwhelmingly Protestant areas and being 'acculturised' over time?

It's a mix of everything. catholics who aren't from an Irish background, people who are fed up being labelled, people who can't see what the fuss is about, cathoilics from an irish background who think of themselves as british.

The thing that surprised me more was the % of people who have both passports. I expected it to be much higher, most people I know back home have both ( I have ).

@TelePolitics: Dozens of MPs paid an extra £15,000 could see pay cut amid concerns about the amount of work they do https://t.co/y8fhULibM6

Interesting - those national identity numbers also show why Sinn Fein have no chance of winning a border poll, now or any time in the foreseeable future,