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  • Is there a phone poll due out today?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Labour to announce a "fiscal lock" essentially allowing billions more in spending on investment spending, to take advantage of low int rates

    Problem is to Labour "investment" means public sector pay rises, not capital expenditure, which means massively increased structural deficit (again).
    The second problem is that if Labour seem to be irresponsible then those 'low int rates' suddenly start becoming those 'high int rates'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: new Labour fiscal rule 2. Investment spending to be excluded from deficit reduction target, to take advantage of low rates
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: senior shadow Cabinet members feel they have not been consulted sufficiently on Labour's new fiscal policy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @hattmarris84: Ken Livingstone just now on LBC attacks Dan Jarvis for donations from hedge funds: "It's a bit like Jimmy Savile funding a childrens' group"

    Just Ken being Ken....I mean he thought it was fine to go after a Labour minister and his long standing mental health condition (and of course nothing happened to him) so it is just green light to go even lower.

    What do Jeremy Hardy, Ken Livingston and Jeremy Corbyn have in common....
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_P said:

    @hattmarris84: Ken Livingstone just now on LBC attacks Dan Jarvis for donations from hedge funds: "It's a bit like Jimmy Savile funding a childrens' group"

    Livingstone plumbing more depths of vileness, as usual.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
    Yes and turnout was not miles off but I have adjusted down accordingly
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    The BES suggested youth turnout could be as high as 58%, well up on the 38% it recorded in 2005 and an increase on the 52% in 2010, if still below the national average
    http://news.sky.com/story/1479819/six-out-of-10-young-voters-turn-out-for-election
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Labour to announce a "fiscal lock" essentially allowing billions more in spending on investment spending, to take advantage of low int rates

    @JamesMills1984: No we are not... https://t.co/umviFmLUcX

    @faisalislam: The Shadow Chancellor's press secretary does not agree with this characterisation: https://t.co/rwaFBRCEb1
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: new Labour fiscal rule 2. Investment spending to be excluded from deficit reduction target, to take advantage of low rates

    So, basically, "We won't spend anything, except for everything that we do spend."

    Isn't this just Brown (1997-2007) all over again? Maybe Corbyn really is the heir to Blair?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: new Labour fiscal rule 2. Investment spending to be excluded from deficit reduction target, to take advantage of low rates

    So, basically, "We won't spend anything, except for everything that we do spend."

    Isn't this just Brown (1997-2007) all over again? Maybe Corbyn really is the heir to Blair?
    Miliband / Balls tried the same bollocks in the run up to GE 2015.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
    Yes and turnout was not miles off but I have adjusted down accordingly
    OTOH, Ipsos MORI had 18-24 turnout at 43%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Miss Cyclefree, it's not so much a fiscal policy as fiscal diarrhoea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    edited March 2016
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
    Yes and turnout was not miles off but I have adjusted down accordingly
    OTOH, Ipsos MORI had 18-24 turnout at 43%.
    Yes well Ipsos Mori had Labour neck and neck with the Tories in their final poll.

    The number of young people registered to vote actually rose to 70% in March 2015 from 56% at the end of 2010https://rfcb.revues.org/503
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    chestnut said:

    Indigo said:

    surbiton said:

    William_H said:

    Some labour person like maybe Kate Hoey would make more sense than Galloway. Otherwise the selection seems sensible enough. You can't leave Farage out, and given the likely make up of Leave voters more than two Tories isn't really warranted

    Someone like Kate Hoey would make much more sense. There seems to be some mischief making in excluding LabourLeave, as if Labour are unanimously behind Remain. It's just not true.
    Someone like Kelvin Hopkins would be a more typical spokesperson for those Labour MPs who favour Leave - he's mainstream left-wing, but nothing like Galloway. But fundamentally there is no prominent Labour Leaver.
    I never took Kate Hoey as seriously Labour. Gisela, yes but I am not sure why she is a LEAVEr.
    Gisella and Gove.

    http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/news/local-news/birmingham-mp-gisela-stuart-to-11016987
    Birmingham MP Gisela Stuart 'to head up Vote Leave'

    She will chair the board of Vote Leave while Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary, will chair the campaigning committee.

    She will replace the former Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Lawson as chair of Vote Leave, in a matter of days, according to ITV's Robert Peston.
    Excellent news.

    Lord Lawson does project as a doddery old soul from the past, while Gisela was on top form in a recent outing on the DP where she trounced Nick Boles, if memory serves. Very authoritative that day.
    That is good news.

    Gisela for PM :)
  • HYUFD
    Here is an article into the basics of voting analysis after an election. All about the marked register.
    http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/postelection.shtml
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    MP_SE said:

    OllyT said:

    Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

    Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

    Alien vs Predator...

    That sounds ghastly.

    Why are there no female proponents for Leave on that panel?

    Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Wollaston, Kate Hooey or Gisela Stuart would be better than any of that lot.
    I see what you mean, but I think it could be electric. Boris, George, Nigel, are all great speakers on their day, but all capable of utter disaster too. Total high stakes gamble.
    The BBC has chosen well. The worst Leavers to choose IMHO.

    On the other hand, Tim Farron and Caroline Lucas won't set the world on fire either.
    Apart from Gove who would have a better claim to be speaking for the BREXITERS?

    Delighted Alan Johnson is on the panel, the PB Tories will rubbish him but he has a lot of capital with centre left voters.
    Alan Johnson has demonstrated time and time again he knows fuck all about the EU. He talks in soundbites. Probe him on his soundbite statements and he will show how little he really knows. Anyone with a minimal knowledge of the EU and is slightly charismatic will savage him.
    Even if he knows "fuck all about the EU" (Which I would dispute) it misses my point - he is very well respected by a lot of left of centre voters who will likely be influenced by him.

    With 8 speakers the debate is going to be far more soundbite than in-depth analysis of the issues so I'm not sure how valid your point would be even if I agreed with it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD
    Here is an article into the basics of voting analysis after an election. All about the marked register.
    http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/postelection.shtml

    No stats there at all and as I said the number of young people on the register increased from 2010 to 2015
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Miss Cyclefree, it's not so much a fiscal policy as fiscal diarrhoea.

    Yes, it's like a spendaholic announcing that they've saved money and when you inquire further you are told that they've saved £70 by buying shoes which originally cost £250 for £180 instead.

    The fact that they've got 43 pair of overpriced and uncomfortable shoes they barely use and a £10,000 credit card bill they can't pay off seems to pass them by.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD
    Here is an article into the basics of voting analysis after an election. All about the marked register.
    http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/postelection.shtml

    No stats there at all and as I said the number of young people on the register increased from 2010 to 2015
    OK I have just tried to help you understand where the stats come from, but you persist in using an estimate of data when there is actual data available 10 months later. I guess you have never run a canvassing operation using the electoral data available in the electoral district.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. F, I think you have to check your privilege before you know if you can be triggered by your culture being appropriated.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King: Currency Union "would have been totally feasible." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldwTwxm-
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    But campaigner Dr Adrienne Keene told Rowling on Twitter that “it’s not ‘your’ world. It’s our (real) Native world. And skinwalker stories have context, roots, and reality … You can’t just claim and take a living tradition of a marginalised people. That’s straight up colonialism/appropriation.”

    I know what my reply to that is, but this is a family website...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear lead.
    As the BES survey I linked to earlier showed youth turnout was below the 66% national average but not as low as the Yougov figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
    Yes and turnout was not miles off but I have adjusted down accordingly
    OTOH, Ipsos MORI had 18-24 turnout at 43%.
    Yes well Ipsos Mori had Labour neck and neck with the Tories in their final poll.

    The number of young people registered to vote actually rose to 70% in March 2015 from 56% at the end of 2010https://rfcb.revues.org/503
    If indeed turnout among 18-24 year olds is only about 10% below average, then the situation must be worse for Labour, and worse for Remain than we thought. We must look reasons other than age, for the gap in enthusiasm that favours both the Conservatives and Leave.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mr. F, I think you have to check your privilege before you know if you can be triggered by your culture being appropriated.

    That sentence probably means something, and I think I'm required to care deeply about it.
    Or something.

    But I don't. I am getting old, I suppose.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    You might even find it encouraging that others felt your culture was worth writing about...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD
    Here is an article into the basics of voting analysis after an election. All about the marked register.
    http://www.howtowinelections.co.uk/postelection.shtml

    No stats there at all and as I said the number of young people on the register increased from 2010 to 2015
    OK I have just tried to help you understand where the stats come from, but you persist in using an estimate of data when there is actual data available 10 months later. I guess you have never run a canvassing operation using the electoral data available in the electoral district.
    What is this electoral data then? You have given me none to contradict the BES figures at all and as I said the number of young people on the register rose from 2010 to 2015
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    Because she had the temerity to oppose independence?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826
    OT Just watching Channel 4 News about a story that the Tories overspent by over two and a half times in Thanet ensuring that Farage didn't get a seat. Michael Crick breathlessly chased after the Tory chairman eventually catching up with him...."how do you explain illegally going over your expenses limit....."

    This went on for four minutes before a cut away to the Tory lady who organized this subterfuge getting an OBE for services to politics from Prince Charles. I said to a friend 'the person who deserves the OBE is the camera operator who followed Crick and ended up with that shot'

    Back in the studio Jon Snow congratulated Crick on getting the story and said "and a special thank you for the cameraman who managed to run backwards through Whitehall and bring you those pictures". The first time I've ever heard anyone credit a TV cameraman.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    I'm sure she'll send them a few bob to patch their teepees, or somesuch...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    OllyT said:

    MP_SE said:

    OllyT said:

    Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

    Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

    Alien vs Predator...

    That sounds ghastly.

    Why are there no female proponents for Leave on that panel?

    Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Wollaston, Kate Hooey or Gisela Stuart would be better than any of that lot.
    I see what you mean, but I think it could be electric. Boris, George, Nigel, are all great speakers on their day, but all capable of utter disaster too. Total high stakes gamble.
    The BBC has chosen well. The worst Leavers to choose IMHO.

    On the other hand, Tim Farron and Caroline Lucas won't set the world on fire either.
    Apart from Gove who would have a better claim to be speaking for the BREXITERS?

    Delighted Alan Johnson is on the panel, the PB Tories will rubbish him but he has a lot of capital with centre left voters.
    Alan Johnson has demonstrated time and time again he knows fuck all about the EU. He talks in soundbites. Probe him on his soundbite statements and he will show how little he really knows. Anyone with a minimal knowledge of the EU and is slightly charismatic will savage him.
    Even if he knows "fuck all about the EU" (Which I would dispute) it misses my point - he is very well respected by a lot of left of centre voters who will likely be influenced by him.

    With 8 speakers the debate is going to be far more soundbite than in-depth analysis of the issues so I'm not sure how valid your point would be even if I agreed with it.
    I would love to see anyone argue Johnson has a good grasp of the EU when he does not understand the difference between the EU and the single market...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Pong said:

    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.

    Do you think Michigan rises him from the dead in the absence of further information from the north and west of the country ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,974
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    How party support divides with ICM's latest EU poll:
    Overall: Remain 40%, Leave 41%
    Con: Remain 43%, Leave 41%
    Lab: Remain 53%, Leave 28%
    LD: Remain 64%, Leave 24%
    UKIP: Remain 1%, Leave 96%
    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Again this poll has too many 18-24 voters and too few 65+ 245 vs426 a ratio of 1.7 when it should be 3.5 according to that Yougov article. On these figures LEAVE has a clear figures suggested so you cannot assume that
    Were you the same poster that I provided the link to the Yougov article a day or so ago? That used in their opinion the most up to date assessment of turnout whereas BES is from 10 months ago.
    Given yougov's record on predicting the general election result I think I will take the BES figures thankyou
    Are you aware of marked registers and the data that they provide weeks after an election on who actually voted?
    BES had an adjusted turnout of 70%, actually 66% and youth turnout of 58%, so that would suggest youth turnout was around 54%
    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/will-younger-voters-turnout-to-vote-by-ed-fieldhouse/#.VuHA3_mLTIU
    That article was written the day before the actual vote took place...... WTF.
    Yes and turnout was not miles off but I have adjusted down accordingly
    OTOH, Ipsos MORI had 18-24 turnout at 43%.
    Yes well Ipsos Mori had Labour neck and neck with the Tories in their final poll.

    The number of young people registered to vote actually rose to 70% in March 2015 from 56% at the end of 2010https://rfcb.revues.org/503
    If indeed turnout among 18-24 year olds is only about 10% below average, then the situation must be worse for Labour, and worse for Remain than we thought. We must look reasons other than age, for the gap in enthusiasm that favours both the Conservatives and Leave.
    A key difference from the general election is the higher turnout middle-class back Remain at the election they tended to favour the Tories and LDs while the lower turnout working classes back Leave while at the election they backed Labour and UKIP. Pollsters are also now better able to adjust their sample to reflect the actual share of the parties at the general election
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    edited March 2016

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    Because she had the temerity to oppose independence?
    Because she is a bully , she loves herself and thinks she can do what she wants and bully anybody , knowing all her sheeple will bombard folks. She is just another rich establishment tosser who believes the hype

    PS , I am happy for anyone to have opposed independence in the past and in the future
  • Poch is having a 'burgon'....

    Sending on Kane @ 3-0 down... if he gets injured now then what was the point of the kids in the first place..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    RodCrosby said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    I'm sure she'll send them a few bob to patch their teepees, or somesuch...
    no chance she will try to get them to donate to her charity for having temerity to challenge her.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    But campaigner Dr Adrienne Keene told Rowling on Twitter that “it’s not ‘your’ world. It’s our (real) Native world. And skinwalker stories have context, roots, and reality … You can’t just claim and take a living tradition of a marginalised people. That’s straight up colonialism/appropriation.”

    I know what my reply to that is, but this is a family website...
    I suspect after this referendum there will be some similar targeting and for the same reason which is that they're bitter in defeat. This time though it'll be Tories
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Poch is having a 'burgon'....

    Sending on Kane @ 3-0 down... if he gets injured now then what was the point of the kids in the first place..

    Apologies. I transferred Alderweireld into my Sun dream team this morning to go with my goalkeeper Lloris.
  • tlg86 said:

    Poch is having a 'burgon'....

    Sending on Kane @ 3-0 down... if he gets injured now then what was the point of the kids in the first place..

    Apologies. I transferred Alderweireld into my Sun dream team this morning to go with my goalkeeper Lloris.
    I'm soon to have 3 Leicester players in my team for the same reason!!!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    "Cultural appropriation" eh? Are Navajo Indians not allowed to use our culture then?? :)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King: Currency Union "would have been totally feasible." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldwTwxm-

    It would be feasible if we wanted a currency union. But if we wanted a currency union we'd be in the Euro.

    We don't want to be a currency union we have our own national currency.

    So you have four choices. Join a currency union like the Euro, start your own currency, stay in the same country and continue using our own currency or use the currency independently without being part of a currency union.

    You don't have an option to compel us to hand our own currency over to a union.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    Excuse me! King Arthur and Beowulf are Anglo-Saxon cultural appropriations of Celtic and Scandinavian indigenous cultures.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    AndyJS said:
    as ever establishment figures only concerned about how much money they can get, absolute duffers.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.

    Do you think Michigan rises him from the dead in the absence of further information from the north and west of the country ?
    TBH, I just don't know what Michigan means for the dem race & the GE.

    I'm flummoxed.

    Someone on betfair clearly thinks he has a chance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. M, I shall translated:

    "I think you have to check your privilege" - privileged groups, such as evil white people (especially men), should be riddled with liberal guilt and not cast aspersions on others.

    "before you know if you can be triggered" - upset by something, which means the something should stop and you are owed an apology. No argument or reason is required.

    "by your culture being appropriated." - when someone writes about something which is not directly related to them. This is entirely different to embracing diversity, and, yet, entirely the same.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Poch is having a 'burgon'....

    Sending on Kane @ 3-0 down... if he gets injured now then what was the point of the kids in the first place..

    Planning to "concentrate on the league"?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Two bits of excellent news! The debate line-ups are nonsense and Gisela Stewart heading VoteLeave.

    Have to confess I have a soft spot for Gisela. Her arguments were the thing that made me first realise that Euroscepticism wasn't right wing xenophobia. Anyone that listens to her has to appreciate the very real deficiencies of EU.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    Excuse me! King Arthur and Beowulf are Anglo-Saxon cultural appropriations of Celtic and Scandinavian indigenous cultures.
    Angles WERE Scandinavian!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    "Cultural appropriation" eh? Are Navajo Indians not allowed to use our culture then?? :)
    They're even appropriating our language.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    I'm still waiting on Google Deepmind's pronouncements on Brexit and US POTUS...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,162

    EPG said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    Excuse me! King Arthur and Beowulf are Anglo-Saxon cultural appropriations of Celtic and Scandinavian indigenous cultures.
    Angles WERE Scandinavian!!
    Jez, what does all this make Lord of the Rings?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    RodCrosby said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    I'm sure she'll send them a few bob to patch their teepees, or somesuch...
    Navajo don't and didn't live in teepees. Completely different culture.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.

    Do you think Michigan rises him from the dead in the absence of further information from the north and west of the country ?
    TBH, I just don't know what Michigan means for the dem race & the GE.

    I'm flummoxed.

    Someone on betfair clearly thinks he has a chance.
    I reversed out of my Red on him @ 26.0 - Kind of saw what was happening @ 32.0 but couldn't pull the trigger >< !

    I think he remains at 16 - 20 for the moment.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.

    Do you think Michigan rises him from the dead in the absence of further information from the north and west of the country ?
    Delving into Michigan a bit and it seems that the polls underestimated the number of Independents voting - apparently nearly 30% of the voters were Independents (only 12% expected) and Sanders had a 43% lead amongst Independents.

    If that was a major factor the polls should be more accurate in the closed and semi-closed primaries. Next week that should translate into comfortable wins for Clinton in Florida and NC in line with the polls. It should also mean that Sanders does better than the polls in Illinois and Missouri (both open primaries) and Ohio (semi-open).

    All will be clear by this time next week!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    @AndyJS - you're about 12 hours late with that article!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    The Najavo are the ones with a really bizarre phonology (Koyaanisqatsi)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    "Cultural appropriation" eh? Are Navajo Indians not allowed to use our culture then?? :)
    A Rhodeian (as opposed to Rhodes) scholar would opine: "You've already won second prize in the lottery of life, my son! You were discovered by us, and are free to partake in our culture. If you're up to it, of course."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    @AndyJS - you're about 12 hours late with that article!

    Is it a race to be first?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I am still genuinely flummoxed by the mental diarrhea of the SNP trying to solve the currency problem by rejecting a currency union in order to suggest they use a single nations currency but make it into a currency union.

    A few years ago the SNP viewed a currency union as a good thing so were saying that they would join the Euro, which is a currency union. Perfectly sound and logical position (though the wrong move IMO it's logically consistent).

    The SNP realised the Euro was unpopular so dropped it like a hot potato but kept on with this "currency union" nonsense that anyone could see was utterly meaningless.

    If you believe in a currency union then join one, the Euro is right there and open to you.
    If you don't believe in a currency union then have your own currency.

    The UK is in the second position. We don't want a currency union so have our own currency. SNP have the courage of your convictions, either believe in a currency union (so join the Euro) or don't so start printing your own currency. You can't magic up other options.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Roger said:

    OT Just watching Channel 4 News about a story that the Tories overspent by over two and a half times in Thanet ensuring that Farage didn't get a seat. Michael Crick breathlessly chased after the Tory chairman eventually catching up with him...."how do you explain illegally going over your expenses limit....."

    This went on for four minutes before a cut away to the Tory lady who organized this subterfuge getting an OBE for services to politics from Prince Charles. I said to a friend 'the person who deserves the OBE is the camera operator who followed Crick and ended up with that shot'

    Back in the studio Jon Snow congratulated Crick on getting the story and said "and a special thank you for the cameraman who managed to run backwards through Whitehall and bring you those pictures". The first time I've ever heard anyone credit a TV cameraman.

    Will anyone get arrested for this scandal ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Mr. M, I shall translated:

    "I think you have to check your privilege" - privileged groups, such as evil white people (especially men), should be riddled with liberal guilt and not cast aspersions on others.

    "before you know if you can be triggered" - upset by something, which means the something should stop and you are owed an apology. No argument or reason is required.

    "by your culture being appropriated." - when someone writes about something which is not directly related to them. This is entirely different to embracing diversity, and, yet, entirely the same.

    Or you could save yourself time and assume that anyone using such language is a nitwit talking bollocks.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Miss Cyclefree, hey! They could be using it satirically...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    If anyone is tempted to take a serious punt against Bernie, there's a large amount of cash wanting to back him @ ~10/1

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107664930

    Not a bet for me.

    Do you think Michigan rises him from the dead in the absence of further information from the north and west of the country ?
    TBH, I just don't know what Michigan means for the dem race & the GE.

    I'm flummoxed.

    Someone on betfair clearly thinks he has a chance.
    I'm going to put in some 2008 turnout figures into my spreadsheet and see if there is a correlation and if so what it is between Sanders performance relative to his avg and turnout differential later on.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The stock market bubble maybe over but the startup bubble hasn't:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-the-communal-office-startup-raises-new-financing-1457558625

    " WeWork company executives said, giving the company a valuation of about $16 billion, up from $10 billion last summer. "

    'That would make it the third-most-valuable publicly traded office landlord were it publicly traded, despite controlling a fraction of the square footage of the leading companies in the sector."

    "WeWork’s business model is generally to rent space from landlords, turn it into a communal atmosphere and rent it out month-by-month at higher prices to companies and individuals. The workforce is largely young, and arcade games, plush couches and beer on tap are fixtures."

    "Still, WeWork’s valuation is so high relative to peers that it has many in the real estate sector scratching their heads. Among the concerns are that rapid growth is difficult to maintain, and the company’s business model leaves it on the hook to pay fixed rents to landlords even if the rents WeWork can charge to companies fall."

    Rent some space, put a couch, an old arcade game, add a neon sign and there you go, that will be $16 billion.
    It will be cheaper to simply rent it directly and do the renovation yourself as you like it, rather than use WeWork.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494
    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: new Labour fiscal rule 2. Investment spending to be excluded from deficit reduction target, to take advantage of low rates

    So, basically, "We won't spend anything, except for everything that we do spend."

    Isn't this just Brown (1997-2007) all over again? Maybe Corbyn really is the heir to Blair?
    No. The Economist, not noted for its leftism, has argued for this for some time - they feel that Britain suffers from serious underinvestment because in their view profligate spending on non-productive things (e.g. housing and pensions, both important things but not contributors to increasing production) squeeze out the airports, roads etc. that Britain needs, as the two are lumped together by Osborne under "spending restraint". They favour borrowing for investment at the current low rates, although I think they would want to squeeze non-investment spending much more than Labour would.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Speedy said:

    The stock market bubble maybe over but the startup bubble hasn't:

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-the-communal-office-startup-raises-new-financing-1457558625

    " WeWork company executives said, giving the company a valuation of about $16 billion, up from $10 billion last summer. "

    'That would make it the third-most-valuable publicly traded office landlord were it publicly traded, despite controlling a fraction of the square footage of the leading companies in the sector."

    "WeWork’s business model is generally to rent space from landlords, turn it into a communal atmosphere and rent it out month-by-month at higher prices to companies and individuals. The workforce is largely young, and arcade games, plush couches and beer on tap are fixtures."

    "Still, WeWork’s valuation is so high relative to peers that it has many in the real estate sector scratching their heads. Among the concerns are that rapid growth is difficult to maintain, and the company’s business model leaves it on the hook to pay fixed rents to landlords even if the rents WeWork can charge to companies fall."

    Rent some space, put a couch, an old arcade game, add a neon sign and there you go, that will be $16 billion.
    It will be cheaper to simply rent it directly and do the renovation yourself as you like it, rather than use WeWork.

    Google's acquisition of Deepmind for $400 million is looking dirt cheap right now.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Miss Cyclefree, hey! They could be using it satirically...

    You and I might. But safer to assume that they are humourless nitwits talking bollocks.

    There is the ironic mind. And the literal mind. Those who write and talk in such a way are literalists, incapable of real thought or imagination or irony or satire or, indeed, any sort of culture at all, other than that which grows in dark, fetid corners.

    That's the thing about self-righteous puritans. Absolutely no sense of humour at all. A very great failing in a person.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T just caught up with the ghastly twitter storm at JK Rowling for using Navajo legends in her story about magic in North America. Apparently, she's committed the crime of "cultural appropriation."

    Am I supposed to get upset because a non-British writer chooses to write a story about King Arthur or Beowulf, or a non-Christian writer writes a novel based on the life of Jesus or King David? How dreary would it be if one could only write about one's own culture.

    she deserves all she gets
    I'm sure she'll send them a few bob to patch their teepees, or somesuch...
    Navajo don't and didn't live in teepees. Completely different culture.
    I must get that JK Rowling book, to find out more about them...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Miss Cyclefree, agree entirely on the humourless nature of puritans.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    New thread, by the way.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The most shocking PB scandal in recent years is the cultural appropriation of the turnip by the irredeemable Pictish tendency.

    Should all right minded PBers not cast aside their petty differences and awaken to the impending holocaust of this renowned root vegetable.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855
    Speedy said:

    The stock market bubble maybe over but the startup bubble hasn't:

    Microsoft were apparently thinking of spending $8 billion on Slack, a company that has a couple of million users, and about half a million paying customers bringing in perhaps $40 million a year. They don't have the huge user base of the likes of Skype and WhatsApp, nor any magic technology. But despite that there were sober people who apparently thought Slack were worth $8 billion. There is something seriously wrong with the tech sector.


  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Cyclefree said:

    Scott_P said:

    @faisalislam: Sky Sources: new Labour fiscal rule 2. Investment spending to be excluded from deficit reduction target, to take advantage of low rates

    So, basically, "We won't spend anything, except for everything that we do spend."

    Isn't this just Brown (1997-2007) all over again? Maybe Corbyn really is the heir to Blair?
    No. The Economist, not noted for its leftism, has argued for this for some time - they feel that Britain suffers from serious underinvestment because in their view profligate spending on non-productive things (e.g. housing and pensions, both important things but not contributors to increasing production) squeeze out the airports, roads etc. that Britain needs, as the two are lumped together by Osborne under "spending restraint". They favour borrowing for investment at the current low rates, although I think they would want to squeeze non-investment spending much more than Labour would.
    This policy would never work in reality, because left wing governments will always be looking to expand the definition of 'investment' to cover their pet projects that don't generate a meaningful return. Debt only becomes dangerous when the interest bill becomes a large proportion of revenue; when debt at current levels, interest rates don't have to rise by much to crowd out lots of public spending.

    There's nothing 'progressive' about running constant deficits and burdening future generations. It just helps the left to pretend that their preferences don't take money out of the electorate's pockets.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2016
    TEST
This discussion has been closed.