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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe the LAB membership isn’t quite the force for Corbyn a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe the LAB membership isn’t quite the force for Corbyn as is thought
"Often they'll say, 'oh, I just joined to vote for Jeremy' … they don't seem to want to win council seats or the mayoral election."
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This doesn't bode well for Labour's awesome ground game in 2020 does it?
Biathlon with a dodgy ticker. Very impressive.
Also, far fewer irritating and self-righeous posts on my Commie friends' facebooks...
Corbyn is too dull to motivate the non voters.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35772206
The whole world is welcome...come on in...
Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway
http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/
Alien vs Predator...
Why are there no female proponents for Leave on that panel?
Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Wollaston, Kate Hooey or Gisela Stuart would be better than any of that lot.
I wonder what German for STFU is ?
Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland
@carlottavance
Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.
Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.
Attending monthly branch meetings is very much a minority taste for only the few most dedicated politicos.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35772202
https://twitter.com/FT/status/707845922286379008
I read in the Democratic debate HRC became even more extreme on the immigration issue in order to shore up her minority support. Might help her in the short term...
Somebody just cranked it up a notch.
Times Business
Euro tumbles against dollar after ECB cuts benchmark rates and increases QE by €20bn https://t.co/IXcAg7Pesd
They are trying to get _a lot_ of money into the economy to get people to spend.
Not surprised in the least, cheap, instant on-line membership by a mass of keyboard warriors who can’t be bothered to get off their arses and pitch in where needed. – It’s the same for those who sign up to on-line petitions, instant smugness, for little or no effort. Tis the new generation for you.
If she's being neutral in public but backing one side in private, is it wrong in some way to reveal her dishonesty?
Has the person who reveals it been a naughty boy? Can't any public person in this country whip up the guts to criticise their beloved hereditary monarch? Anyone got a paper bag?
My experience is that in CLPs that were broadly pro-Corbyn (like mine) there has been some new blood in local meetings and campaigning. In those that were broadly anti, new members have sometimes not been welcome, as the article mentions.
The best point in the article is about the lack of leadership from the top, which is being seen as stemming from a lack of clear leadership discipline and messaging from Corbyn/McD in particular along with the constant division and criticism across the PLP. It's very difficult to engage new members to campaign when it's not clear what the campaigning vision should actually be. It's also hard to see that changing without a leadership that is prepared to give more enthusiastic support to the leader.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbzTyhIv2B8
How many times can you run on the same arguments about austerity, welfare cuts, the NHS, 50p tax rates and get slapped in the face by the electorate?
Complacency will win it for Leave, those who respect the right to vote will get out and do so
https://youtu.be/Nb0ns5quKIw
It's a dog that hasn't barked at all this year, but if this is anything more than an anecdote then we might find the new Labour members making life very difficult at local government level.
Not just me who sees HRC is in trouble. Trump could rap it up in a week, the Democrat race looks like it could go on awhile.
Yes Trump is indeed the heir to Sir James Goldsmith, just without the environmentalism.
Basically the ECB wants lots of money in the economy to stimulate demand as it has worked so well for the last 7 years.
( @Alanbrooke WHETHER OR NOT IT IS PRACTISED!!!!
Furthermore if these keyboard warriors not only don't put in any legwork but actively put off those that did then that is compounding the problem.
No EU country is in breech of the Four Freedoms
On the other hand, Tim Farron and Caroline Lucas won't set the world on fire either.
Safe, no people smugglers, no sea routes, not illegal. All the Germans need to do is put on some planes and issue some visas. Problem over.
As their junior (in age) I was isolated being a LEAVE/BOO and there was no way LEAVE had a chance based on those views 3 years ago. Today I can see a chance, one even left the Conservatives for UKIP.
The strategy is that Corbyn will get more popular over time...
Meanwhile http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/how-the-coup-against-jeremy-corbyn-has-already-happened/
We really need a thread by a keen Remainer who'll set out the aspirations of their position.
We've had a gut full of anti Leave ones which isn't the same thing at all.
They should be reading this and using it as a case study:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/16/how-rebuild-labour-political-party-from-ground-up
Old Holborn
"Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!
https://t.co/D7yyHI4yf5 https://t.co/oVVfAywjnn
Corbyn goes, Osborne fills his trousers, Cameron decides to cling on.
She is the defacto EU President deciding on the blocs economic as well as home affairs priorities.
Somehow I can't see that ending too well.
I doubt the banks have remotely enough notes to do that.
FWIW I'm totally FOR freedom of movement, with the caveat of self sufficiency. I have zero interest in colour, culture or nationality.
Edit: of course if you are very rich you don't care about the price...
We’re changing the law to protect drs who speak up when things go wrong, aiming to move from a blame culture to a learning culture.
@PeteDeveson
.@Jeremy_Hunt Dude there's like fifty four thousand telling you something's going wrong RIGHT NOW. RIGHT NOW AS I TYPE.
1. The lack of reform from the renegotiation.
2. The ongoing migration crisis across the EU and the failure to tackle it. "Its in the news every day".
She would be very wary of doing the latter. Philip and Charles, however, would not.
The ECB has announced it is increasing the pace of QE by €20bn per month, and is further cutting the (already negative) rate it pays banks that deposit money with it.
On QE, it is worth remembering that the ECB is still a long way behind the BoE, the BoJ and the Fed. As a percentage of GDP, the amount of QE in Japan is about 40%, in the UK 30%, the US 25%, and even after this, it will only be 15-20% in the Eurozone. So, the idea that this is outsized monetary stimulus is probably incorrect.
Regarding negative rates for deposits held at the central bank. Currently, the Swiss Central Bank, the Danish Central Bank, the BoJ and the ECB all have negative deposit rates. The aim of these is to encourage banks to lend money. (There is a contradiction here. Central banks all demand that commerical banks increase their Tier One capital ratios, which discourages lending. And then demands they lend by slashing the deposit rate.)
Will QE work?
Probably not. Unlike in the US where the bond market is the main financing mechanism for large companies, in Europe most borrowing is via banks, so this does little to directly lower funding costs. It does, however, lower the cost of borrowing for governments, and mean that - assuming they sensibly refinance - that interest bills as a percentage of GDP are likely to be well below normal levels for the forseeable future,
Will negative interest rates work?
They did in Sweden, where economic growth has gone through the roof since the Riksbank started charge commercial banks to leave money with it. They have not in Japan.
Frankly, a bigger boost to Eurozone GDP - although not inflation rates - is likely to be the low price of oil.
Why on earth would I want to hire a black cab over an uber?
Plus, I always seem to attract the racist black cabbies
My knowledge of two London CLPs is that it is (literally) the returners from the 1980s including some of the more colourful personalities who are turning up spoiling for a fight and meetings are poisonous. It is also clear there are plenty who are Corbyn supporters but not Labour supporters - the Jeremy Hardys and Mark Steels.
It's not just about the lending channel Robert (which is complicated by negative rates as well as capital & liquidity rules), but asset prices and the exchange rate as well. But I'd agree this is not a very dramatic stimulus.
You're a good example of what I'm talking about, if immigration control is mentioned you call all sorts of names. But you want to Remain part of a Union that controls immigration.
Not easy to square that circle.
Of course the central dichotomy of wanting banks to both lend and build up capital bears repeating at every available opportunity.