politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe the LAB membership isn’t quite the force for Corbyn a

£3 is not much of a commitment I guess. Easy come easy go. Joining Labour and voting Corbyn was for some barely more than virtue signalling it seems.

Lack of enthusiasm for attending branch meetings, canvassing and so on is neither a new phenomenon nor restricted to Corbyn supporters - nor, I believe, just a Labour phenomenon. There are loads of people who merely join a party to show support and leave it at that, except when it comes to selecting candidates (and leaders).

Russian biathlete Eduard Latypov has been suspended after testing positive meldonium...

Biathlon with a dodgy ticker. Very impressive.

"The drudgery of monthly branch meetings has set in and most of these new (Labour) members have stopped showing up"

Also, far fewer irritating and self-righeous posts on my Commie friends' facebooks...

Jonathan said:

I am not a supporter of JC, but without doubt he has energised constituency activity in my area.

Where do you live?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed European nations for "unilaterally" shutting the Balkan route for migrants.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35772206

The whole world is welcome...come on in...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Corbynistas, all fart and no follow through.

This doesn't bode well for Labour's awesome ground game in 2020 does it?

Yes but they can build on that "wonderful" ground game that we were told they had in 2015....

Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

Alien vs Predator...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

Alien vs Predator...

That sounds ghastly.

Why are there no female proponents for Leave on that panel?

Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Wollaston, Kate Hooey or Gisela Stuart would be better than any of that lot.

Can someone tell me what this means?

Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland

On topic, why is this a surprise to anyone?

Attending monthly branch meetings is very much a minority taste for only the few most dedicated politicos.

blackburn63 said:

FPT

@carlottavance

Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

Alien vs Predator...

Why no Labour LEAVEr?

Plato_Says said:

Can someone tell me what this means?

Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland

Look upon it as a patient having a bad bacterial infection. The doctor is gradually going through increasingly strong antibiotics.

They are trying to get _a lot_ of money into the economy to get people to spend.

Afternoon all - ‘People are just not turning up’

Not surprised in the least, cheap, instant on-line membership by a mass of keyboard warriors who can’t be bothered to get off their arses and pitch in where needed. – It’s the same for those who sign up to on-line petitions, instant smugness, for little or no effort. Tis the new generation for you.

I swear the same people sign all the same 38 degrees political petitions.

SimonStClare said:

Afternoon all - ‘People are just not turning up’

Not surprised in the least, cheap, instant on-line membership by a mass of keyboard warriors who can’t be bothered to get off their arses and pitch in where needed. – It’s the same for those who sign up to on-line petitions, instant smugness, for little or no effort. Tis the new generation for you.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, why is this a surprise to anyone?

Attending monthly branch meetings is very much a minority taste for only the few most dedicated politicos.

It rather has the feel of yet another strawman angle for decrying Corbyn as a failure - "He claimed that all these members would get involved in CLP business and they haven't". I don't think there was ever an expectation that large numbers of new members would immediately get into the swing of local day to day politics, nice as it would be to see it. In fact the point of trying to broaden the leadership election was precisely to try and raise some interest in politics amongst those who weren't necessarily up for the same level of commitment as "traditional" members.

My experience is that in CLPs that were broadly pro-Corbyn (like mine) there has been some new blood in local meetings and campaigning. In those that were broadly anti, new members have sometimes not been welcome, as the article mentions.

The best point in the article is about the lack of leadership from the top, which is being seen as stemming from a lack of clear leadership discipline and messaging from Corbyn/McD in particular along with the constant division and criticism across the PLP. It's very difficult to engage new members to campaign when it's not clear what the campaigning vision should actually be. It's also hard to see that changing without a leadership that is prepared to give more enthusiastic support to the leader.

TOPPING said:

Plato_Says said:

Can someone tell me what this means?

Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland

Look upon it as a patient having a bad bacterial infection. The doctor is gradually going through increasingly strong antibiotics.

They are trying to get _a lot_ of money into the economy to get people to spend.

This credit crunch has been a bloody nightmare for us savers

Interesting piece of gossip I heard recently. Our Labour team on the council have said that they couldn't see themselves doing a deal on a council budget in opposition. This is because their new members are so anti-austerity they fear deselection. They can just about get away with it as the administration as they can claim they're doing their best to mitigate all the cuts.

It's a dog that hasn't barked at all this year, but if this is anything more than an anecdote then we might find the new Labour members making life very difficult at local government level.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

Plato_Says said:

Can someone tell me what this means?

Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland

Look upon it as a patient having a bad bacterial infection. The doctor is gradually going through increasingly strong antibiotics.

They are trying to get _a lot_ of money into the economy to get people to spend.

This credit crunch has been a bloody nightmare for us savers

It's of course why the oldies like hearing anything about austerity.

( @Alanbrooke WHETHER OR NOT IT IS PRACTISED!!!! )

blackburn63 said:

CarlottaVance said:

blackburn63 said:

FPT

@carlottavance

Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

Irrelevant. Cameron said he was going to cut immigration, he either thought it possible or he was lying.

Cameron lying kind of stopped being a story sometime ago didn't it? It's priced in to analysing any Cameron statement. Not "does he seriously believe what he's saying?" so much as "what effect will his saying this have?"

weejonnie said:

Plato_Says said:

Can someone tell me what this means?

Breaking: European Central Bank cuts deposit rate to -0.4% and main refinancing rate to 0%. Expands QE to Eu80bn a month #negativeland

The deposit rate being negative means that if an organisation wants to store money by sending it to the ECB then instead of the ECB paying the organisation for the ability to use that money, the ECB charges the organisation for providing a safe haven.

Basically the ECB wants lots of money in the economy to stimulate demand as it has worked so well for the last 7 years.

Its a huge problem for banks because they cannot pass these rates on to customers. No idiot is going to leave his money in a bank if he ends up with less than he started with.

Plato_Says said:

Oh dear.

ttps://youtu.be/Nb0ns5quKIw

What a vile man.

Plato_Says said:

Golly, that's quite a graph

Times Business
Euro tumbles against dollar after ECB cuts benchmark rates and increases QE by €20bn https://t.co/IXcAg7Pesd

Economics like this will have far more of an impact on the EU ref than the migration crisis (which the EU is desperately trying to bottle up in any event) by June IMHO.

It's such a tired playlist. It wasn't attracting listeners 5yrs ago either.

FrancisUrquhart said:

chestnut said:

Labour are punch drunk. They just don't seem to have the fire in their bellies any more.

How many times can you run on the same arguments about austerity, welfare cuts, the NHS, 50p tax rates and get slapped in the face by the electorate?

You forgot ZEROOOOOO HOURSSSS CONTRACTTTSSSSS....they got another run out yesterday.

Plato_Says said:

Golly, that's quite a graph

Times Business
Euro tumbles against dollar after ECB cuts benchmark rates and increases QE by €20bn https://t.co/IXcAg7Pesd

it moved 1%

Spokesman for Momentum was on DP.

The strategy is that Corbyn will get more popular over time...

Meanwhile

Over the past few weeks, talk of a potential coup against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader has grown, with most expecting some sort of move from some section of the party in the summer. The chance of that move not dying the same embarrassing death as most Labour coups is still pretty slim, no matter how tough the plotters talk about the number of meetings they’ve had. But whatever happens with the official party leadership, there is already a serious coup underway in the party.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/how-the-coup-against-jeremy-corbyn-has-already-happened/

Casino_Royale said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Remain: George Osborne, Alan Johnson, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas

Leave: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Iain Duncan Smith, George Galloway

http://order-order.com/2016/03/10/bbcs-tv-debate-revenge-on-no-10/

Alien vs Predator...

That sounds ghastly.

Why are there no female proponents for Leave on that panel?

Andrea Leadsom, Priti Patel, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Wollaston, Kate Hooey or Gisela Stuart would be better than any of that lot.

I see what you mean, but I think it could be electric. Boris, George, Nigel, are all great speakers on their day, but all capable of utter disaster too. Total high stakes gamble.

The BBC has chosen well. The worst Leavers to choose IMHO.

On the other hand, Tim Farron and Caroline Lucas won't set the world on fire either.

Tim can roll a joint and Caroline can smoke it whilst George thinks about legalising it for the tax and Alan just smiles (as he does) getting high on the fumes.

Plato_Says said:

Mine are trending Leave. I was Reluctant Remain only a few months ago too.

We really need a thread by a keen Remainer who'll set out the aspirations of their position.

We've had a gut full of anti Leave ones which isn't the same thing at all.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

peter_from_putney said:

What I would really like to hear, from a betting perspective, is the extent to which and in which direction (if any) PBers and their close circle of friends and/or family have switched sides between REMAIN and LEAVE or not as the case may be.
A thread dedicated specifically to just such a purpose with perhaps 200-300 PBers contributing, or alternatively in a poll format if that could be arranged, would provide an interesting insight into how opinion may be shifting.

An interesting question. 3 years ago four 70yrs+ male retired professionals (Conservatives) all 4 were for REMAIN. Now it is 1 LEAVE, 1 leaning to LEAVE, 1 unsure and 1 REMAIN.

As their junior (in age) I thought being a LEAVE/BOO then, there was no way LEAVE had a chance based on their view 3 years ago. Today I can see a chance, 1 even left the Conservatives for UKIP.

Is it possible for REMAIN to talk about sunny uplands?

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/707915017132367872

watford30 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has blamed European nations for "unilaterally" shutting the Balkan route for migrants.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35772206

The whole world is welcome...come on in...

I've got a suggested route to allow people into Germany: planes.

Safe, no people smugglers, no sea routes, not illegal. All the Germans need to do is put on some planes and issue some visas. Problem over.

Except Merkel doesn't really want all the refugees/migrants to head to Germany. She's hoping they'll spread about, and not be solely her problem.

Merkel wants to be able to decide upon the immigration policy on behalf of all EU member states herself.

She is the defacto EU President deciding on the blocs economic as well as home affairs priorities.

Somehow I can't see that ending too well.

Any TV debate should have Michael Gove as most senior Leave cabinet minister and Kate Hoey as leader of LabourLeave. Also a case for Priti Patel for ethnic/gender diversity.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/707915017132367872

I'm in an uber now. Excellent, fraction of the price of a black cab or minicab.

Edit: of course if you are very rich you don't care about the price...

TCPoliticalBetting said:

peter_from_putney said:

What I would really like to hear, from a betting perspective, is the extent to which and in which direction (if any) PBers and their close circle of friends and/or family have switched sides between REMAIN and LEAVE or not as the case may be.
A thread dedicated specifically to just such a purpose with perhaps 200-300 PBers contributing, or alternatively in a poll format if that could be arranged, would provide an interesting insight into how opinion may be shifting.

An interesting question. 3 years ago four 70yrs+ male retired professionals (Conservatives) all 4 were for REMAIN. Now it is 1 LEAVE, 1 leaning to LEAVE, 1 unsure and 1 REMAIN.
...

FWIW The two biggest drivers of their views are:-
1. The lack of reform from the renegotiation.
2. The ongoing migration crisis across the EU and the failure to tackle it. "Its in the news every day".

Casino_Royale said:

She is the defacto EU President deciding on the blocs economic as well as home affairs priorities.

Somehow I can't see that ending too well.

And if you think that's bad, just imagine if Germany were led by someone less competent.

The Smithson ECB Piece:

The ECB has announced it is increasing the pace of QE by €20bn per month, and is further cutting the (already negative) rate it pays banks that deposit money with it.

On QE, it is worth remembering that the ECB is still a long way behind the BoE, the BoJ and the Fed. As a percentage of GDP, the amount of QE in Japan is about 40%, in the UK 30%, the US 25%, and even after this, it will only be 15-20% in the Eurozone. So, the idea that this is outsized monetary stimulus is probably incorrect.

Regarding negative rates for deposits held at the central bank. Currently, the Swiss Central Bank, the Danish Central Bank, the BoJ and the ECB all have negative deposit rates. The aim of these is to encourage banks to lend money. (There is a contradiction here. Central banks all demand that commerical banks increase their Tier One capital ratios, which discourages lending. And then demands they lend by slashing the deposit rate.)

Will QE work?
Probably not. Unlike in the US where the bond market is the main financing mechanism for large companies, in Europe most borrowing is via banks, so this does little to directly lower funding costs. It does, however, lower the cost of borrowing for governments, and mean that - assuming they sensibly refinance - that interest bills as a percentage of GDP are likely to be well below normal levels for the forseeable future,

Will negative interest rates work?
They did in Sweden, where economic growth has gone through the roof since the Riksbank started charge commercial banks to leave money with it. They have not in Japan.

Frankly, a bigger boost to Eurozone GDP - although not inflation rates - is likely to be the low price of oil.

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

CarlottaVance said:

blackburn63 said:

FPT
Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

All of them. Start by realising Schengen visas aren't given out to all comers like public relations toffees.

Not sure how many times we have to repeat this. Schengen has absolutely nothing to do with the right to move between countries. It is only about not having to stop and show your documentation to someone at a border. So long as you are not on some list of undesirables (terrorists, criminals etc) whether you are in Schengen or not has sweet FA to do with freedom of movement.

Of course it has something to do with this. Freedom of movement only applied to EU citizens not all and sundry. If you're illegally in one Schengen nation you can get into all of them from there without ever passing another border security force. This delegates every nations border to the weakest link.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

CarlottaVance said:

blackburn63 said:

FPT
Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

All of them. Start by realising Schengen visas aren't given out to all comers like public relations toffees.

Not sure how many times we have to repeat this. Schengen has absolutely nothing to do with the right to move between countries. It is only about not having to stop and show your documentation to someone at a border. So long as you are not on some list of undesirables (terrorists, criminals etc) whether you are in Schengen or not has sweet FA to do with freedom of movement.

Of course it has something to do with this. Freedom of movement only applied to EU citizens not all and sundry. If you're illegally in one Schengen nation you can get into all of them from there without ever passing another border security force. This delegates every nations border to the weakest link.

Crossing land borders in Europe - even before Schengen - has always been a pot of piss.

The problem is less that they don't get involved (which as pointed out below is the norm for party members) but whether the non-active have fundamentally different views from the active, and therefore can impose leadership and policy positions on the party through on-line voting, which a good proportion of those who knock on doors, raise funds and crucially are elected Councillors don't agree with. That is a recipe for those who actually hold the party together leaving.

My knowledge of two London CLPs is that it is (literally) the returners from the 1980s including some of the more colourful personalities who are turning up spoiling for a fight and meetings are poisonous. It is also clear there are plenty who are Corbyn supporters but not Labour supporters - the Jeremy Hardys and Mark Steels.

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

CarlottaVance said:

blackburn63 said:

FPT
Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

All of them. Start by realising Schengen visas aren't given out to all comers like public relations toffees.

Not sure how many times we have to repeat this. Schengen has absolutely nothing to do with the right to move between countries. It is only about not having to stop and show your documentation to someone at a border. So long as you are not on some list of undesirables (terrorists, criminals etc) whether you are in Schengen or not has sweet FA to do with freedom of movement.

Of course it has something to do with this. Freedom of movement only applied to EU citizens not all and sundry. If you're illegally in one Schengen nation you can get into all of them from there without ever passing another border security force. This delegates every nations border to the weakest link.

Crossing land borders in Europe - even before Schengen - has always been a pot of piss.

Not if you're the family Von Trapp.

blackburn63 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

CarlottaVance said:

blackburn63 said:

FPT
Controlling immigration is easy, you stop people entering the country.

Now you may decide that's not a good idea but its perfectly possible and not at all difficult to implement, plenty of countries do it. The EU is just a smokescreen, the govt could change policy this afternoon if it wished.

Which EU countries do it?

All of them. Start by realising Schengen visas aren't given out to all comers like public relations toffees.

Not sure how many times we have to repeat this. Schengen has absolutely nothing to do with the right to move between countries. It is only about not having to stop and show your documentation to someone at a border. So long as you are not on some list of undesirables (terrorists, criminals etc) whether you are in Schengen or not has sweet FA to do with freedom of movement.

For years now I've heard people saying they want a grown up conversation about immigration, that has morphed into freedom of movement. Freedom of movement in it's purest form has probably never existed, never will. The Remain stance is risible, if you want to control migration you're a racist, xenophobic, little Englander, this at a time when the EU is bribing Turkey to keep out the savages.

FWIW I'm totally FOR freedom of movement, with the caveat of self sufficiency. I have zero interest in colour, culture or nationality.

The point of Schengen area countries is that they operate a common visa policy.

Grayling in full flow at Vote Leave on BBC News 24.

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson ECB Piece:

The ECB has announced it is increasing the pace of QE by €20bn per month, and is further cutting the (already negative) rate it pays banks that deposit money with it.

On QE, it is worth remembering that the ECB is still a long way behind the BoE, the BoJ and the Fed. As a percentage of GDP, the amount of QE in Japan is about 40%, in the UK 30%, the US 25%, and even after this, it will only be 15-20% in the Eurozone. So, the idea that this is outsized monetary stimulus is probably incorrect.

Regarding negative rates for deposits held at the central bank. Currently, the Swiss Central Bank, the Danish Central Bank, the BoJ and the ECB all have negative deposit rates. The aim of these is to encourage banks to lend money. (There is a contradiction here. Central banks all demand that commerical banks increase their Tier One capital ratios, which discourages lending. And then demands they lend by slashing the deposit rate.)

Will QE work?
Probably not. Unlike in the US where the bond market is the main financing mechanism for large companies, in Europe most borrowing is via banks, so this does little to directly lower funding costs. It does, however, lower the cost of borrowing for governments, and mean that - assuming they sensibly refinance - that interest bills as a percentage of GDP are likely to be well below normal levels for the forseeable future,

Will negative interest rates work?
They did in Sweden, where economic growth has gone through the roof since the Riksbank started charge commercial banks to leave money with it. They have not in Japan.

Frankly, a bigger boost to Eurozone GDP - although not inflation rates - is likely to be the low price of oil.

Thanks Robert interesting.

Of course the central dichotomy of wanting banks to both lend and build up capital bears repeating at every available opportunity.