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  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Speedy said:

    Chuck ToddVerified account ‏@chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago
    "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.

    A reminder:

    12 Can win in November
    34 shares my values
    28 tells it like it is
    26 Can bring change

    Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.

    Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago
    Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders

    But Trump looks safe.

    Looks bad for Rubi-o
    Looks very good for Trump.
    Cruz and Kasich may come a strong second but Trump looks like he is leading comfortably in both Mississippi and Michigan.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    If Trump wins comfortably tonight, he has to thank this guy:

    https://twitter.com/thehill/status/707353974874226689
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    I love exit poll leaks, it 's like a puzzle but with numbers:

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089

    Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
    It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    I love exit poll leaks, it 's like a puzzle but with numbers:

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089

    Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
    It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.

    Rubio, 6%. This could be really low
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Speedy said:

    If Trump wins comfortably tonight, he has to thank this guy

    The trees were the right height in Michigan 4 years ago. I guess they grew.

    In contrast Trump described New Hampshire as bucolic. If only he could talk down to the little guy like Romney can...
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
    We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.

    This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4

    It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    edited March 2016

    Speedy said:

    I love exit poll leaks, it 's like a puzzle but with numbers:

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089

    Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
    It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.

    Rubio, 6%. This could be really low
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/marco_rubio_failed_here_s_why.html

    Glad to see his backers have wasted a fortune.

    That article has the funniest correction I have seen.
    *Correction, March 2, 2016: This post originally misidentified Marco Rubio as nonwhite. He is not nonwhite; he is Hispanic. (Return.)
    That's the problem with the definition 'Hispanic'.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Kasich shortening rapidly in thin market on Betfair - now in to 9.2, and a mere £6 would make it 8.4, not much longer than Cruz at 5.9. Trump 1.62.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    LondonBob said:

    Speedy said:

    I love exit poll leaks, it 's like a puzzle but with numbers:

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089

    Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
    It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.

    Rubio, 6%. This could be really low
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/marco_rubio_failed_here_s_why.html

    Glad to see his backers have wasted a fortune.
    A pile of wishful thinking. a lesson for all of us
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    LondonBob said:

    Speedy said:

    I love exit poll leaks, it 's like a puzzle but with numbers:

    https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089

    Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
    It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.

    Rubio, 6%. This could be really low
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/marco_rubio_failed_here_s_why.html

    Glad to see his backers have wasted a fortune.
    Limbo Rubio is trying to lower the bar set by Bush.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited March 2016
    Are we expecting exit polls with candidate figures in half an hour when most MI polls close, or do we have to wait 90 minutes for them all to close?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Are we expecting exit polls with candidate figures in half an hour when most MI polls close, or do we have to wait 90 minutes for them all to close?

    Logically they wont release exit polls from Michigan until all precincts close, so that's one hour after most of them close.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    What is it about US election season that produces fruit loops?

    This time it was Cromwell spouting his "Rubio will crush all in his path" rubbish.
    Last time it was the fabulously deluded Stuart Truth.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
    We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.

    This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4

    It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
    Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Mississippi

    Outsider (60% of voters)

    Trump 70
    Cruz 26
    Rubio 2
    Kasich 1

    Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
    We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.

    This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4

    It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
    Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
    I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
    We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.

    This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4

    It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
    Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
    I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
    Easter falls close to my birthday this year. I've had bright sunshine, snow, thunder, hail before...
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    O/T How had I not heard of Friedrich Kalkbrenner before tonight?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CclQ1tGmGws

    Good night all. And good night to the Rubio campaign. Not before time.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Speedy said:

    Mississippi

    Outsider (60% of voters)

    Trump 70
    Cruz 26
    Rubio 2
    Kasich 1

    Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category.

    This must be the first time you've calling anything positive for Trump based on an exit poll. It looks like he's on course for his first 50% result.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Mississippi

    Shares my values (34%)

    Cruz 64
    Trump 13
    Rubio 12
    Kasich 10.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    Speedy said:

    Mississippi

    Outsider (60% of voters)

    Trump 70
    Cruz 26
    Rubio 2
    Kasich 1

    Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category.

    People conflating the fact Cruz is hated by his colleagues with a belief he is an outsider.

    New material for Trump in due course.

    https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/707301337722032129

    https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/707301845136322560
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Speedy said:

    hunchman said:

    Exciting weather forecast for Mexico, all the hallmarks of an oncoming mini ice age. Snow in Mexico City at this time of year is most unusual:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84

    Mini ice age?
    After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
    We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.

    This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4

    It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
    Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
    I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
    Easter falls close to my birthday this year. I've had bright sunshine, snow, thunder, hail before...
    Statistically its more likely to snow at Easter (whenever it falls) compared to Christmas. We had snow in Easter 2008, and I remember orienteering near Dolgellau in North Wales when it snowed at Easter in 1998, and hailed pretty hard too.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN says it's ready for a projection the moment polls close.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    The power of PB, I assume? - the Betfair Kasich market fattens swiftly, with liquidity now both wayds.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    CNN says it's ready for a projection the moment polls close.

    in which contests?
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    I'm +110 on Kasich mostly as a trading bet -can't decide whether to cash in, wait for a good result or go to bed. I'm inclined to hang on - he's going to do OK in MI, I think.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724

    Speedy said:

    CNN says it's ready for a projection the moment polls close.

    in which contests?
    Mississippi closing in 7 minutes, I believe. Michigan not till 2am our time. Iado and Hawaiii God knows.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    CNN says it's ready for a projection the moment polls close.

    in which contests?
    Logically Mississippi.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    sarissa said:

    BBC set for war with Tory Government over latest budget raid

    Titter BBC Tory toadying not really paying dividends.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/bbc-set-war-tory-government-7519398

    "It is understood Mr Whittingdale is considering offering bodies such as the Arts Council the chance to bid for licence fee cash to create ‘public service’ programmes to show on BBC channels ."

    Um... so the licence fee would pay for programmes direct? hardly draconian
    But they would lose overseas sales income.
    I wouldn't trust ACE to create anything. They are one of the most useless quangos out there. Rewarding nepotism and wasting public money.

    And I support proper public support of the arts - just ACE ceased to be fit for purpose years ago.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Hillary wins Mississippi.

    To early for the GOP, but Trump considerably ahead of Cruz.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    The CNN projection - Clinton wins Mississipppi...yeah, we knew that last week...
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    Rubio 0 v 1 voting thresholds
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy said:

    Hillary wins Mississippi.

    To early for the GOP, but Trump considerably ahead of Cruz.

    CNN Mississippi Exit poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.

    You said 40. If we're allowed 5%, the game is much easier...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Dems
    Clinton 78 (projected winner)
    Sanders 22
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/Dem
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN Exit Poll in Mississippi now updated to:

    Trump 49
    Cruz 36
    Rubio 9
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.

    You said 40. If we're allowed 5%, the game is much easier...
    I said at least 42%.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    CNN Exit Poll in Mississippi now updated to:

    Trump 49
    Cruz 36
    Rubio 9

    There's no congressional threshold but 50% sweeps the delegates in that congressional district so...
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Trump ahead in MS with nearly every voting group except hardcore conservatives - does best among older, less educated men.

    That result is a bit meh - Trump will probably be happiest because he's winning and it doesn't change much. Cruz did well but not fabulously in a very conservative state. Terrible for Rubioand Kasich but they weren't really trying there.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.

    You said 40. If we're allowed 5%, the game is much easier...
    I said at least 42%.

    "Mississippi:

    12 Can win in November
    34 shares my values
    28 tells it like it is
    26 Can bring change

    That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan.
    Trump is probably around 40 there"
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455

    Trump ahead in MS with nearly every voting group except hardcore conservatives - does best among older, less educated men.

    That result is a bit meh - Trump will probably be happiest because he's winning and it doesn't change much. Cruz did well but not fabulously in a very conservative state. Terrible for Rubioand Kasich but they weren't really trying there.

    You can't write states off if you actually want to win.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Mississippi Exit Poll
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

    Trump 45
    Cruz 35.5
    Rubio 9
    Kasich 7.5

    I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.

    You said 40. If we're allowed 5%, the game is much easier...
    I said at least 42%.

    "Mississippi:

    12 Can win in November
    34 shares my values
    28 tells it like it is
    26 Can bring change

    That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan.
    Trump is probably around 40 there"
    And then with more categories coming in I said:

    "Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category."
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    ...and Sanders a hair's breadth ahead of Clinton there.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    And Sanders leading Hillary 52 to 47.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    DDHQ show two sets of results, beasically the same, from different areas
    exactly the same, must be an error
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    On the Dem side with 1% in

    Sanders 52.2%
    Clinton 47.1%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    ...and Sanders a hair's breadth ahead of Clinton there.
    Sanders needs to win downtown Detroit, african americans are a majority there.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    We got votes from Michigan

    With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:

    Kasich 36
    Trump 35
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    ...and Sanders a hair's breadth ahead of Clinton there.
    Sanders needs to win downtown Detroit, african americans are a majority there.
    Surely Clinton will walk downtown Detroit. Sanders' best shot must be the suburbs and rural areas?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Michigan 3% in

    Trump 35.5
    Kasich 35.5
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    Rural Michigan is going 2-1 for Trump.
    Kasich barely tied with Trump in the Detroit suburbs.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Michigan 3% in

    GOP

    Trump 35.6%
    Kasich 35.3%
    Cruz 18.8%
    Rubio 7.8%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/

    Dems (6% in)
    Sanders 52.4%
    Clinton 46.9%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Fox projects: Trump wins Mississippi.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Marco Rubio

    Michigan (early results) 8 to 9%, well under threshold of 15%. Same for Mississippi based on exit polls.

    That's Marco Rubio 0 v 2 Voting thresholds
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Sanders still ahead by 51-47 with 12% counted. A real upset?

    On the Republican side, Kasich has certainly done well enough to stay in the race.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    Looks like rural votes will give Trump the edge in Michigan.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    I need a few more votes in to project Michigan for Trump.
    As long as he is tied with Kasich in the Detroit suburbs and beat him by 2-1 in rural Michigan he should be OK, but it's too early.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    Speedy said:

    Chuck ToddVerified account ‏@chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago
    "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.

    A reminder:

    12 Can win in November
    34 shares my values
    28 tells it like it is
    26 Can bring change

    Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.

    Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago
    Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders

    But Trump looks safe.

    Looks bad for Rubi-o
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qObzgUfCl28
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    I need a few more votes in to project Michigan for Trump.
    As long as he is tied with Kasich in the Detroit suburbs and beat him by 2-1 in rural Michigan he should be OK, but it's too early.

    I'm calling it for Trump, est. 37 v 33
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Presumably the birther stuff will hurt Trump in Hawaii where Obama has his highest approval ratings? It doesn't look like there will be good news for the stop Trump camp anywhere else tonight.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Sanders still ahead by 51-47 with 12% counted. A real upset?

    On the Republican side, Kasich has certainly done well enough to stay in the race.

    I can't tell yet if Sanders will win.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is opening his lead with 9% in

    Trump 36
    Kasich 34
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Speedy said:

    Trump is opening his lead with 9% in

    Trump 36
    Kasich 34
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    Now 37-30 with 11% in.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    Trump is opening his lead with 9% in

    Trump 36
    Kasich 34
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    Turnout not far off a million...!
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455

    Speedy said:

    Trump is opening his lead with 9% in

    Trump 36
    Kasich 34
    Cruz 19
    Rubio 8

    Now 37-30 with 11% in.
    Betting market has called it
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm calling Michigan for Trump.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016

    Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.

    not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Rubio: "I believe with all my heart that the winner of the Florida primary next Tuesday will be the nominee of the Republican Party"

    Is that an endorsement of Trump?
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724

    Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.

    not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
    Well ahead of the polls, but I see Betfair moving slightly against him, and Trump shifting in.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Kasich is third everywhere outside Detroit.
    Cruz might catch up to him for second.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455

    Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.

    not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
    Well ahead of the polls, but I see Betfair moving slightly against him, and Trump shifting in.
    Polls put him at 26% approximately, though with big margin (21v33). He's on 30% at the moment
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    HIllary will win Michigan I think. Wayne County not reporting yet (Detroit)
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Sanders is up by 2, however there is almost nothing from downtown Detroit.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    HIllary will win Michigan I think. Wayne County not reporting yet (Detroit)

    If Oakland has 120,000 Democrats doesn't that make it part of Detroit?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Michigan

    GOP 15% in
    Trump 38.1%
    Kasich 28.7%
    Cruz 20.4%
    Rubio 8.8%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep

    Dems 22% in
    Sanders 50.1%
    Clinton 48.2%
    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Dems: Still almost no votes reported from Wayne county in Detroit - strongly suspect that will put Clinton ahead. But should be reasonably close overall, as Sanders is winning almost everywhere else.

    GOP: yes, Trump by a clear margin now.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    How on earth did Richard Quest ever get a gig on TV? He has to be one of the most annoying people ever to hit the screen...
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    So Rubio has lost both his battles against thresholds it seems. Can Trump take 50% in Mississippi? Big impact on delegates if congressional districts are
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100

    Pulpstar said:

    HIllary will win Michigan I think. Wayne County not reporting yet (Detroit)

    If Oakland has 120,000 Democrats doesn't that make it part of Detroit?
    It's the suburbs.
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited March 2016
    Hillary closing the gap in Michigan with 23% in.

    All over on the GOP side - good night for Trump.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.

    I like the mini cartoon Trumps and Clintons updating the result
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.

    I like the mini cartoon Trumps and Clintons updating the result
    On the 200th refresh I found them kinda annoying
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Will the GOP throw in the towel after tonight? It's clear now that Trump has seen off Rubio and withstood the all the oppo attacks they could muster.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Wanderer said:

    Hillary closing the gap in Michigan with 23% in.

    All over on the GOP side - good night for Trump.

    On the GOP side the Detroit suburbs have almost finished counting, that was Kasich best area, so Trump's lead will only grow, and Kasich's lead over Cruz will get smaller.
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838

    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.

    I like the mini cartoon Trumps and Clintons updating the result
    On the 200th refresh I found them kinda annoying
    You lasted 198 more refreshes than me :)
  • asjohnstone
    asjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Wanderer said:

    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.

    I like the mini cartoon Trumps and Clintons updating the result
    On the 200th refresh I found them kinda annoying
    You lasted 198 more refreshes than me :)
    You lasted 2 more than me........
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    GOP turnout higher in MI than Democratic turnout, interestingly..............
  • Possibly not a bad night for Cruz as Rubio is fading fast and Kasich's momentum stalled. Opposition to Trump coalescing around Cruz. Obviously Trump rightly favourite but I think Cruz is not looking so badly placed as some think.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016

    Will the GOP throw in the towel after tonight? It's clear now that Trump has seen off Rubio and withstood the all the oppo attacks they could muster.

    The attacks by the establishment back fired, people like Romney reminded voters why they hate people like Romney.
    And Romney campaigned for both Rubio and Kasich in Michigan.

    Also it's clear that the NBC/WSJ poll is crap, due to their flawed methodology, as I suspected.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016

    Possibly not a bad night for Cruz as Rubio is fading fast and Kasich's momentum stalled. Opposition to Trump coalescing around Cruz. Obviously Trump rightly favourite but I think Cruz is not looking so badly placed as some think.

    What would Cruz poll in NY? That's the question. Even as the non-Trump candidate.

    Although I agree it's a good night for Cruz, it may well not be enough.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924

    Will the GOP throw in the towel after tonight? It's clear now that Trump has seen off Rubio and withstood the all the oppo attacks they could muster.

    No, they will wait until next Tuesday when Trump humiliates Rubio in Florida and beats Kasich in Ohio, then they will decide whether to take cyanide or electrocute themselves as the race becomes a Trump v Cruz head to head!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Rofl My "black fit" for Mississippi gave Hillary 86%. Polling analysis 78%.

    It'd be hilarious if the racial model gave a better result than the polling.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Arguably this is the best spot to watch the Dems:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem

    - mouse over counties to see the huge Wayne,Macomb and Oakland counties in the southeast (=Detroit plus suburbs).
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Rofl My "black fit" for Mississippi gave Hillary 86%. Polling analysis 78%.

    It'd be hilarious if the racial model gave a better result than the polling.

    I think at 1% counted it is difficult to say 75% v 80%
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    How do Macomb and Wayne compare demographically?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924

    HYUFD said:

    LondonBob said:

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016

    Best site to watch the results.

    Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.

    I like the mini cartoon Trumps and Clintons updating the result
    On the 200th refresh I found them kinda annoying
    Yes, take in small doses
This discussion has been closed.