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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both u
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls
There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes:
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Moderator: Mr Trump, the question was about tax reform.
Boris: What a bloviating homunculus, eh? Sic transit gloria mundy *falls off stage to audience applause*
I can tell.
I would be very interested to hear arguments to the contrary, of course.
but I will say that he will be so far behind Cruz in a brokered convention that it's not a credible option, unless you think Cruz will drop out -
because even if he wins Michigan and Ohio (my indicative guess would be 2/1 at the most charitable), it's hella late for momentum and you can only assume he would win about 1/3rd of remaining delegates in a 3-man race, starting from well behind
Cruz has outperformed, by about 5 points on average.
OGH and poll analysis has always been PB's achilles heel...
Imagine if every man over 6 ft tall, could push their shopping trolley past the till without paying and say 'fuck off I'm over 6ft tall'. Some of us would continue to pay 'because that's how we were brought up', but a large and steadily growing number of us (as we saw others) would take advantage. I'm not trying to absolve these men of their wicked crimes, but I am saying, that in a tragically ironic way, police inaction designed to preserve the status quo and sweep these incidents under the carpet actually metastasised this scandal. Crack down on these things hard and swift, and they won't happen in quantity - no-one bangs their head deliberately against a brick wall. The same goes for FGM.
That's why I believe we need to look to ourselves in all this. 'Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for THEE BERNARD'
The very same pollsters that covered themselves in glory in May last year,there's a surprise.
UP if he wins as expected in Michigan, I guess?
DOWN if he does poorly in Michigan
But is it UP or DOWN for Trump's nomination if Rubio does really poorly, and drops out before an expected humiliation in Florida? Thinking rationally, that should be worse for Trump, right? But will Joe Punter think rationally or assume that a Rubio drop-out means Trump is winning?
As true in banking as in Rotherham or Cologne, even if the reasons why some bankers thought their behaviour acceptable and some Muslim men thought their behaviour acceptable were different.
Either way you need to enforce consequences consistently and you need to change the culture which allows the behaviour to take root and spread. The latter is much much harder than the former, of course.
..... and both twats
And Trump's now running...
Sometimes when you are seeking to make culture change you need also to take a pause from other change in order to stabilise the situation. You cannot have everything changing at once.
Titter BBC Tory toadying not really paying dividends.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/bbc-set-war-tory-government-7519398
There are plenty of idiots in Westminster. As Gore Vidal once said, even idiots deserve representation.
Um... so the licence fee would pay for programmes direct? hardly draconian
Melvyn Bragg suggested something like that years ago
I know some kind soul posted a link to a very good website a week or two ago but I have lost it.
I have a terrible book for the Republican primary and not much better for the Presidential and I really need to know when to cut my losses to save a little bit of money as we have a baby due any day.
We could launch an expedition to settle this along with the Paddy Power pecker punt.
Less than 4 hours now.
For the very first results go to Decision Desk HQ, but beware their accuracy is not great, writing down results on paper from the phone as fast as you can to beat the AP wire can result in mistakes:
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
Or else try CNN, they are slower but accurate:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/
His hair was originally light brown.
His kids from Ivana (she is blond) also betray the original hair colour of the father.
It's always been one of the fastest and most accurate sources of early information on the web. Beats the MSM hands down. Not sure if the tone of the site will suit you? It's perfect for me .... a mixture of rightist Republicans, Tea Partiers and libertarians.
http://ace.mu.nu/
To bring in our earlier discussion, it is not the disease specifically that we need worry about, but the health of the immune system to fight it. Somehow reducing numbers of Muslims (not even sure how that could even be achieved) is like wearing a mask on the tube. It might 'work' in a way, but does not address the long term health of the patient.
Overrated, overpaid and over here?
If Romney had stayed silent no one would have known what the ultimate goal of the establishment was before it was too late, though there were plenty of hints before hand.
What with PM Boris and President Trump (or not, as OGH sagely divines) it's like us Atlanticists are trying to get one back over Italy for Berlusconi.
Ireland should join in. None of their politicians seem particularly keen to run the country, don't they have a standby 'sleb they could pass the buck (or euro) to?
Remain will still win. But not because of Emmiline Pankhurst's descendent grabbing her 15 minutes.
Propaganda usually is.
They will think about it in June, subject to the football staying out of the way.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/directv-hit-outages-multiple-channels-873578
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-directv-outages-idUKKCN0WA2J2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/directv-woes-caused-by-whats-called-sun-transit-outage-2016-03-08
I cannot understand how anyone arrives at the conclusion that Salafi/Wahabbi/ISIS type Muslims are in anyway the same as these vile creatures who exploited mainly white children for sex. They are chalk and cheese. Exact opposites.
ISIS/Salafi/Wahabbi types and their sympthasisers are ultra conservative, puritanical, practising Muslims who would like to see Sharia Law implemented in the UK and all over the world, indeed that is what the ISIS are currently fighting for. Those who have been convicted of child grooming and exploitation are non practising Muslims who are as far removed from the ISIS types as you can get. Under ISIS rule those men in Rotherham etc would've been stoned to death, according to the hudd (penal code) of Sharia that they are currently busily implementing.
At the last minute the RNC appears also to have outlawed superdelegates this year.
And at least two states (at this juncture) will have no primary or caucus, and their delegates will be presumably unbound.
I still can't get my head around LA though, and no figures have been provided to show why Rubio with 11% statewide obtained 28% of the CD delegates.
Shame Carney didn't provide the pros and cons, and the long-term risks of QMV voting by the Eurozone applying rules to us that are damaging. I suppose some people might be angry that an "independent" person showed little balance to his views.
Carney is ex Goldman Sachs, enough said.
a) That if new evidence comes to light that would lead to a successful appeal it would be too late
b) That to allow a proper system of justice for death penalty cases is not feasible within our legal aid budget., as it is incredibly expensive.
'There will not be a next time if Remain win comfortably, Leave at least need to make it close (which I still think it will be no matter how inept their campaign) '
There can always be a next time even if it takes another 41 years to get there. Even a repeat of the 2 to 1 In vote achieved in 1975 would not prevent demands for another vote if events subsequently lead to claims that the British people had been conned by the Remain campaign. It really would not take much for UKIP and Tory Eurosceptics to start shouting 'We told you so!'. At the end of the day , there is no reason at all why the 2016 vote should prove any more final than its 1975 predecessor.
ISIS are a bunch of garden rapists. They've raped their way through Kobane and juat about every other captured town in Syria and Iraq. They even rape children and keep them as sex slaves.
Puritanical my arse. More like disaffected, unemployable bullies who only act under the banner of religion because it gives them impunity from arreat and an opportunity to exercise their sexual and twisted fantasies. Absolute scum.
Good night everybody.
Next to politicians, bankers remain some of the least popular people in the UK. Best to stay in the shadows.
3 in 4 support the muslim ban in Mississippi. 6 out of 10 in Michigan.
It was six months ago this week when Nicola Sturgeon heroically admitted she’d be ‘happy’ to have a refugee move into her detached Glasgow home. That same rousing week last September, we were treated to the vision of Yvette Cooper ‘bravely’ holding up a piece of A4 paper with #refugeeswelcome scrawled on it.
As he’s wont to do, Bob Geldof went one further, offering to put up three families in his pile in Kent and another in his London flat. Yet, to date, it seems that not a single refugee has been welcomed through the Chunnel and made it to Nicola’s nest, Casa Cooper or either of Geldoff’s gaffs.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/welcome-to-luvvie-island-a-haven-for-virtue-signalling-celebrities/
First Preference share in final polls:
YouGov: Johnson 43, Livingstone 36 (lead 7)
mruk: Johnson 43, Livingstone 44 (lead -1)
Ipsos MORI: Johnson 38, Livingstone 41 (lead -3)
ICM: Johnson 42. Livingstone 41 (lead 1)
Actual result: Johnson 43.2, Livingstone 37.0 (lead 6.2)
Apart from YouGov which was a rounding error from absolutely perfect, all other polls overestimated Livingstone significantly, two underestimate Johnson and they all underestimated Johsnon's lead.
Kind of throws a spanner in the works of OGH's theory which is probably why this incovenient fact is just ignored rather than used as further evidence of the meme. "Johnson underperforms" seems to be the new "Labour crutch" meme here.
True. It was the BS that the Bank was neutral that annoyed me. But, maybe having been challenged in this way he may just shut the eff up for the next few months. The Mervyn quotes are more than adequate to give a contrasting view. Odd that the BBC and Peston on ITV news seem unaware of what Mervyn said....
I've listened to two longish interviews on the BBC radio with King over the last few days. Dont think he got off the fence once. His backside must be very sore. Not impressed.
Mississippi 44% angry, 43% dissatisfied
Michigan: 32% angry, 55% dissatisfied
Mississippi: 76% evangelicals
Michigan: 49% evangelicals
Mississippi looks more like S.Carolina, Michigan more like Virginia.
Shares my values in the 30's
Tells it like it is 24
Change 28
Can win in november 12
37 late deciders
63 early deciders.
Look's like Trump will be in the 30's, perhaps high 30's.
Graph.