This has been a poor fortnight for Remain with serialization of Mervyn King's book predicting the implosion of the Eurozone, the UK's payment to the 6 billion euros bribe to Turkey rising to £500 millions, and migrant camps in Greece being splashed on the ITV News most nights .... and, still, Yvette Cooper has not taken in the refugee she promised during the Labour leadership campaign (deterred apparently because it was not wanted by the Conservative government!) ...
I do not agree at all - leave have no narrative of what happens on the 24th June and are morphing into their own "Project Fear' with the migrant crisis. Indeed this crisis may not be all it is made out to be for leave if they come over as non compassionate, non caring and want to close our borders
I love it when you come over all compassionate and caring ... Like these:
It was six months ago this week when Nicola Sturgeon heroically admitted she’d be ‘happy’ to have a refugee move into her detached Glasgow home. That same rousing week last September, we were treated to the vision of Yvette Cooper ‘bravely’ holding up a piece of A4 paper with #refugeeswelcome scrawled on it.
As he’s wont to do, Bob Geldof went one further, offering to put up three families in his pile in Kent and another in his London flat. Yet, to date, it seems that not a single refugee has been welcomed through the Chunnel and made it to Nicola’s nest, Casa Cooper or either of Geldoff’s gaffs.
Well these promises were just crass and not thought through. But my argument is much wider that there will be pressure to take more selected Syrian refugees from the middle east camps as David Cameron's original well thought through solution and it will be interesting on how the public respond
Well these promises were just crass and not thought through.
I don't care about the politicians, amoral turds that they are. Geldof's better. I wish there were provision for private people to put up refugees. I'd give a room or two too.
Remember Daesh got big first not in Syria but in Iraq, as a result of the western invasion ruining the country. There shouldn't just be war crimes trials: there should be reparations. They're unlikely to happen, so yes, give a room if you can.
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan. Trump is probably around 40 there.
Speedy
What you're doing is coming up with a perfectly reasonable supposition, and then seeing it in the tea leaves.
I'm working it by comparing it with past exit polls, for instance the "Tells it like it is" is usually 90% for Trump in past exit polls, the "Can win in November" is the best area for Rubio, ect ect.
Islam has nothing to do with the grooming gangs that have been happening in Rochdale, Rotherham, Keighley, Oxford etc etc
I cannot understand how anyone arrives at the conclusion that Salafi/Wahabbi/ISIS type Muslims are in anyway the same as these vile creatures who exploited mainly white children for sex. They are chalk and cheese. Exact opposites.
ISIS/Salafi/Wahabbi types and their sympthasisers are ultra conservative, puritanical, practising Muslims who would like to see Sharia Law implemented in the UK and all over the world, indeed that is what the ISIS are currently fighting for. Those who have been convicted of child grooming and exploitation are non practising Muslims who are as far removed from the ISIS types as you can get. Under ISIS rule those men in Rotherham etc would've been stoned to death, according to the hudd (penal code) of Sharia that they are currently busily implementing.
Top trolling!
I don't think it is for non-muslims to declare what is true Islam. That is an internal debate.
What we as outsiders can do is easy though. Judge a tree by its fruit.
Islam has nothing to do with the grooming gangs that have been happening in Rochdale, Rotherham, Keighley, Oxford etc etc
I cannot understand how anyone arrives at the conclusion that Salafi/Wahabbi/ISIS type Muslims are in anyway the same as these vile creatures who exploited mainly white children for sex. They are chalk and cheese. Exact opposites.
ISIS/Salafi/Wahabbi types and their sympthasisers are ultra conservative, puritanical, practising Muslims who would like to see Sharia Law implemented in the UK and all over the world, indeed that is what the ISIS are currently fighting for. Those who have been convicted of child grooming and exploitation are non practising Muslims who are as far removed from the ISIS types as you can get. Under ISIS rule those men in Rotherham etc would've been stoned to death, according to the hudd (penal code) of Sharia that they are currently busily implementing.
AIUI, you are right that ISIS view certain crimes very strongly, including rape. What you have not considered is the fact that only applies to people they consider fellow believers. If you are unfortunate enough to be in ISIS territory and a follower of other, more moderate, Sunni sects, then all bets are off. If you are Christian, Shia, or anything else, it's even worse. ISIS's strict rules do not apply as they perceive you are worth *less* than fellow true believers.
The same thing was seen (and I'm pretty sure this was mentioned in the Jay report, but might be wrong) in Rotherham. Many of the girls were seen as of less value because they were non-Muslim and troubled. Men thought they were sluts and treated them as such. This was aided by authorities that not only did not tackle the men, but did not help the would-be victims, sometimes because they believed the girls were also 'worth' less, if not for religious reasons.
The similarity between ISIS and Rotherham et al is that they have put a 'value' on their victims. They perceive their victims, for whatever reason, as being less valuable (e.g. "white trash"), and that excuses their crime.
This might be why in Rotherham a number of Muslim girls were treated in the same way as the white girls (and some boys, if rumours are true). Perhaps those Muslim girls were deemed less 'valued' for some reason (perhaps they'd had a white boyfriend in the past, or perhaps they did not attend mosque). Or perhaps not. Sick people will look for excuses.
IMO the core problems are 1) Valuing some people as less worthy, or unworthy, because they do not follow your cultural or religious mores. 2) Thinking that because you value them less, the laws do not apply to them as they would to the people you do value highly.
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan. Trump is probably around 40 there.
Speedy
What you're doing is coming up with a perfectly reasonable supposition, and then seeing it in the tea leaves.
I'm working it by comparing it with past exit polls, for instance the "Tells it like it is" is usually 90% for Trump in past exit polls, the "Can win in November" is the best area for Rubio, ect ect.
Well, let's use Virginia:
40% of 26% = 10% 25% of 12% = 3% 10% of 34% = 4% 72% of 34% = 25%
Which would give us 42% - I doubt it - but moreover big error bars. Basically all of 35%-45% which is anywhere from very good to disappointing.
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan. Trump is probably around 40 there.
Speedy
What you're doing is coming up with a perfectly reasonable supposition, and then seeing it in the tea leaves.
I'm working it by comparing it with past exit polls, for instance the "Tells it like it is" is usually 90% for Trump in past exit polls, the "Can win in November" is the best area for Rubio, ect ect.
Well, let's use Virginia:
40% of 26% = 10% 25% of 12% = 3% 10% of 34% = 4% 72% of 34% = 25%
Which would give us 42% - I doubt it - but moreover big error bars. Basically all of 35%-45% which is anywhere from very good to disappointing.
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan. Trump is probably around 40 there.
Speedy
What you're doing is coming up with a perfectly reasonable supposition, and then seeing it in the tea leaves.
I'm working it by comparing it with past exit polls, for instance the "Tells it like it is" is usually 90% for Trump in past exit polls, the "Can win in November" is the best area for Rubio, ect ect.
Well, let's use Virginia:
40% of 26% = 10% 25% of 12% = 3% 10% of 34% = 4% 72% of 34% = 25%
Which would give us 42% - I doubt it - but moreover big error bars. Basically all of 35%-45% which is anywhere from very good to disappointing.
That's why I said around 40.
Outsider 52% - 62% to Trump = 30% Experience 39 - 5% to Trump = 2%
Steven Portnoy @stevenportnoy 54s54 seconds ago A quarter of voters in #MIGOP say they only made up their minds in the last few days, per early exit poll data.
That's a similar picture with Mississippi. And 60% there want an outsider, that's 8 points more than Michigan.
Steven Portnoy @stevenportnoy 54s54 seconds ago A quarter of voters in #MIGOP say they only made up their minds in the last few days, per early exit poll data.
Strange GOP national polls floating about tonight. Some showing Cruz rising strongly, and one with Kasich on 22% !
Normal service will be resumed shortly, we hope.
Forget about the NBC/WSJ polls, since they changed their methodology they tend to produce Cruz leads nationally and locally, the last one I think had Cruz ahead of Trump nationally by 2 points after N.H. and they had Cruz winning S.Carolina.
Islam has nothing to do with the grooming gangs that have been happening in Rochdale, Rotherham, Keighley, Oxford etc etc
I cannot understand how anyone arrives at the conclusion that Salafi/Wahabbi/ISIS type Muslims are in anyway the same as these vile creatures who exploited mainly white children for sex. They are chalk and cheese. Exact opposites.
ISIS/Salafi/Wahabbi types and their sympthasisers are ultra conservative, puritanical, practising Muslims who would like to see Sharia Law implemented in the UK and all over the world, indeed that is what the ISIS are currently fighting for. Those who have been convicted of child grooming and exploitation are non practising Muslims who are as far removed from the ISIS types as you can get. Under ISIS rule those men in Rotherham etc would've been stoned to death, according to the hudd (penal code) of Sharia that they are currently busily implementing.
Strange GOP national polls floating about tonight. Some showing Cruz rising strongly, and one with Kasich on 22% !
Normal service will be resumed shortly, we hope.
Forget about the NBC/WSJ polls, since they changed their methodology they tend to produce Cruz leads nationally and locally, the last one I think had Cruz ahead of Trump nationally by 2 points after N.H. and they had Cruz winning S.Carolina.
At the moment, it's an obvious outlier. Opinion simply doesn't change that fast!
On the eurref I thought Leave edged it today.Labour and EU Labour in particular scored a hit for Remain on gender equality,something Farage is not well-known for,but news from the Governor that thousands of bankers would run from London is an unwanted gift to Leave.May I suggest ukip get a fleet of boats and take them across the Channel.A definite hit for Leave.However,what has swung it is that champagne will go up if we leave.Good.
Today was a very poor day for leave with Mark Carney's select committee appearance all but endorsing remain, Boris making a 'cock up' (his words) and Priti Patel being denounced for drawing the suffragettes into the leave side. As far as bankers are concerned the head of Lloyd' s came out very forcefully on the remain side earlier today
I highly doubt any of this has made any difference whatever - and that's not partisan - I highly doubt a day when Farage makes a cracker of a speech, Juncker gets a custard pie in the face, and the PM has a dreadful interview with Andrew Neil would make a difference the other way. It's Westminster bubble stuff that won't change anyone's view. Especially as far as Leave supporters go, establishment bankers and central bankers really are factored in. More likely to fire them up than change their mind.
Remain will still win. But not because of Emmiline Pankhurst's descendent grabbing her 15 minutes.
I do agree with your comments except Mark Carney who is respected as an independent voice and his words today will be repeated ad infinitum by remain
I doubt the man on the street even knows who he is, still less cares.
In a good sign for Trump in Mississippi, that 60% that want an outsider is near a record in primaries, Nevada had 61%, the average is around 50. Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
"In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close."
"Working against Trump is his perceived lack of honesty. Just slightly more than half in Mississippi and fewer than half in Michigan think he’s honest and trustworthy. Cruz does better than Trump in both states on this, while Rubio only does better than Trump in Michigan."
" In Michigan, there’s not much daylight between the candidates, where about half say they’d be satisfied with Trump, Cruz and Rubio alike. In Mississippi, six in 10 would be satisfied with both Cruz and Trump, vs. just four in 10 with Rubio. "
On the eurref I thought Leave edged it today.Labour and EU Labour in particular scored a hit for Remain on gender equality,something Farage is not well-known for,but news from the Governor that thousands of bankers would run from London is an unwanted gift to Leave.May I suggest ukip get a fleet of boats and take them across the Channel.A definite hit for Leave.However,what has swung it is that champagne will go up if we leave.Good.
Today was a very poor day for leave with Mark Carney's select committee appearance all but endorsing remain, Boris making a 'cock up' (his words) and Priti Patel being denounced for drawing the suffragettes into the leave side. As far as bankers are concerned the head of Lloyd' s came out very forcefully on the remain side earlier today
I highly doubt any of this has made any difference whatever - and that's not partisan - I highly doubt a day when Farage makes a cracker of a speech, Juncker gets a custard pie in the face, and the PM has a dreadful interview with Andrew Neil would make a difference the other way. It's Westminster bubble stuff that won't change anyone's view. Especially as far as Leave supporters go, establishment bankers and central bankers really are factored in. More likely to fire them up than change their mind.
Remain will still win. But not because of Emmiline Pankhurst's descendent grabbing her 15 minutes.
I do agree with your comments except Mark Carney who is respected as an independent voice and his words today will be repeated ad infinitum by remain
I doubt the man on the street even knows who he is, still less cares.
Maybe but they will know of the Bank of England Governor and will be interested in his views. However time to rest before many more days of hopefully 'respectful' discussions on this form
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
Newsnight, the programme with such piss poor viewing figures, it's future is in doubt? Don't get too excited Woger.
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
Newsnight, the programme with such piss poor viewing figures, it's future is in doubt? Don't get too excited Woger.
On the eurref I thought Leave edged it today.Labour and EU Labour in particular scored a hit for Remain on gender equality,something Farage is not well-known for,but news from the Governor that thousands of bankers would run from London is an unwanted gift to Leave.May I suggest ukip get a fleet of boats and take them across the Channel.A definite hit for Leave.However,what has swung it is that champagne will go up if we leave.Good.
Today was a very poor day for leave with Mark Carney's select committee appearance all but endorsing remain, Boris making a 'cock up' (his words) and Priti Patel being denounced for drawing the suffragettes into the leave side. As far as bankers are concerned the head of Lloyd' s came out very forcefully on the remain side earlier today
I highly doubt any of this has made any difference whatever - and that's not partisan - I highly doubt a day when Farage makes a cracker of a speech, Juncker gets a custard pie in the face, and the PM has a dreadful interview with Andrew Neil would make a difference the other way. It's Westminster bubble stuff that won't change anyone's view. Especially as far as Leave supporters go, establishment bankers and central bankers really are factored in. More likely to fire them up than change their mind.
Remain will still win. But not because of Emmiline Pankhurst's descendent grabbing her 15 minutes.
I do agree with your comments except Mark Carney who is respected as an independent voice and his words today will be repeated ad infinitum by remain
I doubt the man on the street even knows who he is, still less cares.
Maybe but they will know of the Bank of England Governor and will be interested in his views. However time to rest before many more days of hopefully 'respectful' discussions on this form
They won't. They'll simply see a Banker telling them what to do.
I could take photos of Carney and King onto the factory floor of the family business, and few, if any of the staff would have a clue as to who either of them were, or be even remotely interested in their thoughts.
They will however have views on the great migration.
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
Newsnight, the programme with such piss poor viewing figures, it's future is in doubt? Don't get too excited Woger.
"In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close."
"Working against Trump is his perceived lack of honesty. Just slightly more than half in Mississippi and fewer than half in Michigan think he’s honest and trustworthy. Cruz does better than Trump in both states on this, while Rubio only does better than Trump in Michigan."
" In Michigan, there’s not much daylight between the candidates, where about half say they’d be satisfied with Trump, Cruz and Rubio alike. In Mississippi, six in 10 would be satisfied with both Cruz and Trump, vs. just four in 10 with Rubio. "
It's clear they are still reporting the race as a 3+1 affair, when it's now more like 2+2, with Rubio dropping to the second tier. Of course, that's a little unfair; he did win Puerto Rico.
Carnage at the Treasury Select Committee today. The Bank of England governor delighted in engaging with project fear about extra liquidity being made available to banks around the 23rd June and warning of volatility around that date. And that after the BoE had pledged to remain independent during the campaign. Quite right that even the normally mild mannered Jacob Rees Mogg was about as angry as I've seen him in parliament
Its very telling that the remain campaign continue to engage in fear, doing precisely the opposite of what Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. Its clear after a fortnight of this campaign that the remain camp have nothing positive to say. And meanwhile the EU finds itself bitterly divided over the migrant crisis. Its no wonder given the backdrop of ever closer union producing precisely the opposite effect of division and rancour that the remain campaign deals in nothing other than fear.
Well as Rooseveldt once said, 'the only thing to fear is fear itself'. I have no fear of a remain campaign that is based on falsehoods and deceit that the ordinary British public can see straight through.
This has been a poor fortnight for Remain with serialization of Mervyn King's book predicting the implosion of the Eurozone, the UK's payment to the 6 billion euros bribe to Turkey rising to £500 millions, and migrant camps in Greece being splashed on the ITV News most nights .... and, still, Yvette Cooper has not taken in the refugee she promised during the Labour leadership campaign (deterred apparently because it was not wanted by the Conservative government!) ...
I do not agree at all - leave have no narrative of what happens on the 24th June and are morphing into their own "Project Fear' with the migrant crisis. Indeed this crisis may not be all it is made out to be for leave if they come over as non compassionate, non caring and want to close our borders
If this is true, then I'm considerably heartened! Leave need to demotivate soft Remain support, fighting fear with fear is exactly what they need to do. Neutralise fear by aiming at 'parity' of fear, and you are left with whose supporters are more motivated. I'd say that leaves Leave (ha) with a not terrible chance. Got to be more motivated Leavers out there than people who actively like the EU, albeit that they are flakier voters.
Setting out lots of complete programmes for our international relations over the course of the next 20 years, then arguing over them with your own side, whilst at the same time not even having the means to implement any of them, was always a huge 'Remain' booby trap. For all their faults, if Leave aren't falling into it, good for them.
"In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close."
"Working against Trump is his perceived lack of honesty. Just slightly more than half in Mississippi and fewer than half in Michigan think he’s honest and trustworthy. Cruz does better than Trump in both states on this, while Rubio only does better than Trump in Michigan."
" In Michigan, there’s not much daylight between the candidates, where about half say they’d be satisfied with Trump, Cruz and Rubio alike. In Mississippi, six in 10 would be satisfied with both Cruz and Trump, vs. just four in 10 with Rubio. "
It's clear they are still reporting the race as a 3+1 affair, when it's now more like 2+2, with Rubio dropping to the second tier. Of course, that's a little unfair; he did win Puerto Rico.
Most importantly, it looks like Trump will perform a few points lower in Michigan than in Mississippi, but how much lower I can't tell, it could be 5 points but I'm not sure.
@gabyhinsliff: Wonder how those cross with (apolitical) Mark Carney for criticising case for Brexit react to (apolitical) Queen allegedly backing it
I don't know how true the story is but when you consider that she has always prided herself as head of the Commonwealth she may well look at the EU in disdain, though I doubt she will be joining the leave campaigns
In a good sign for Trump in Mississippi, that 60% that want an outsider is near a record in primaries, Nevada had 61%, the average is around 50. Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
Mississippi votes the same as Alabama and eastern Louisiana so Trump high 40s would be my guess.
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
Newsnight, the programme with such piss poor viewing figures, it's future is in doubt? Don't get too excited Woger.
@gabyhinsliff: Wonder how those cross with (apolitical) Mark Carney for criticising case for Brexit react to (apolitical) Queen allegedly backing it
As a republican I'll be *coughing* and *spluttering* at the Queen's 90th birthday party a week before the referendum or so. It was disgraceful how Cameron indicated how the Queen wished her subjects to vote in the Scottish independence referendum. I wouldn't be surprised if he attempts another tawdry repeat with this referendum.
O/T while we trade speculation: I signed up for a partnership (John Lewis) credit card recently, online. They asked me for a memorable word and a number. OK. Two weeks later, they sent me: (1) A letter with a 9-character password, diguised with a tear-off sticker (2) A second letter with a 10-character internet ID (3) A third letter with the credit card itself, inside another letter with security card over it (4) Instructions to go to a website for further instructions. On the website, they told me to: (5) Enter (1) and (2) (6) Remember my memorable word (7) Remember my number (8) Define a new memorable word (9) Define a new memorable number, of a different length to before.
There is a good security. And there's effing ridiculous security.
In a good sign for Trump in Mississippi, that 60% that want an outsider is near a record in primaries, Nevada had 61%, the average is around 50. Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
Mississippi votes the same as Alabama and eastern Louisiana so Trump high 40s would be my guess.
Michigan my guess would be high 30s.
40 is the big number, if Trump is above 40 he is probably safe, if he is bellow 40 he might be in trouble. That is of course if Kasich and Rubio get compressed in Mississippi at 20%, and Cruz and Rubio at 20 in Michigan.
In a good sign for Trump in Mississippi, that 60% that want an outsider is near a record in primaries, Nevada had 61%, the average is around 50. Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
Mississippi votes the same as Alabama and eastern Louisiana so Trump high 40s would be my guess.
Michigan my guess would be high 30s.
40 is the big number, if Trump is above 40 he is probably safe, if he is bellow 40 he might be in trouble.
I can't see many Kasich votes in Mississippi. Depends on Rubio %.
Rubio + Kasich might be 20% so yes, 40% will be the key for Cruz/Trump.
Amazing to think that if the GOP primaries had been run from West to East, instead of vice-versa, Trump would probably have dropped out of the race by now, or been seen as the long-shot, at best...
In a good sign for Trump in Mississippi, that 60% that want an outsider is near a record in primaries, Nevada had 61%, the average is around 50. Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
Mississippi votes the same as Alabama and eastern Louisiana so Trump high 40s would be my guess.
Michigan my guess would be high 30s.
40 is the big number, if Trump is above 40 he is probably safe, if he is bellow 40 he might be in trouble. That is of course if Kasich and Rubio get compressed in Mississippi at 20%, and Cruz and Rubio at 20 in Michigan.
Thresholds are 15%/20% so could make a big difference
Amazing to think that if the GOP primaries had been run from West to East, instead of vice-versa, Trump would probably have dropped out of the race by now, or been seen as the long-shot, at best...
The West is very ideological, the christian fundamentalist base is in places like Kansas and Nebraska, and the Utah mormons.
Amazing to think that if the GOP primaries had been run from West to East, instead of vice-versa, Trump would probably have dropped out of the race by now, or been seen as the long-shot, at best...
Trump was ahead enough in the national polls, I'm not so sure. He could have grabbed a strong result in CA before anything changed.
Rofl Rubio camp playing a massive expectations game.
We expect Cruz to win MS and Kasich to do very well in MI.
Well if only half of Very Concervatives vote for Cruz in Mississippi then he would be at 25. So that's the floor for Cruz there.
In Alabama only 29% of very conservative voted Cruz, 41% Trump. Good for Cruz though as he struggles with somewhat conservative (17) and moderate (13), unlike Trump who was 46% and 40%.
Even as someone in the leave camp, I can well understand why large companies are favourable to the EU when dealing with one large body instead of 28 separate governments. Its well known that the growth and dynamism comes from small and medium sized companies - once companies get too big conflicts of interest development and enterprise and innovation usually get stymied. And the consumer suffers from large companies skewing the rules and regulations in their favour. Large companies protecting market share and other abuses of market power are something to be avoided in a well functioning market. Things have gone precisely the other way under the EU - smaller companies are strangled in unnecessary red tape and bureaucracy and long term economic growth has suffered as a result. When the euro was established in 1999 many economists incorrectly argued that extra price transparency, reduced foreign exchange costs and the like would raise EU growth. Well they turned out to be spectacularly wrong.
Idaho and Hawaii are the interesting ones. Idaho will gauge Trump's support in the West. No idea on Hawaii, caucus as well. On the one hand it could be like Nevada, on the other...
Idaho and Hawaii are the interesting ones. Idaho will gauge Trump's support in the West. No idea on Hawaii, caucus as well. On the one hand it could be like Nevada, on the other...
O/T while we trade speculation: I signed up for a partnership (John Lewis) credit card recently, online. They asked me for a memorable word and a number. OK. Two weeks later, they sent me: (1) A letter with a 9-character password, diguised with a tear-off sticker (2) A second letter with a 10-character internet ID (3) A third letter with the credit card itself, inside another letter with security card over it (4) Instructions to go to a website for further instructions. On the website, they told me to: (5) Enter (1) and (2) (6) Remember my memorable word (7) Remember my number (8) Define a new memorable word (9) Define a new memorable number, of a different length to before.
There is a good security. And there's effing ridiculous security.
Absolutely. Equally on the other side it horrifies me how many people use passwords like their pet name, favourite colour or football team - passwords that insist on a mix of upper and lower case with at least one wildcard character I think should be mandatory to stop any of that, but the multiple layered security like that would be enough to put anyone off!
"It is understood Mr Whittingdale is considering offering bodies such as the Arts Council the chance to bid for licence fee cash to create ‘public service’ programmes to show on BBC channels ."
Um... so the licence fee would pay for programmes direct? hardly draconian
"It is understood Mr Whittingdale is considering offering bodies such as the Arts Council the chance to bid for licence fee cash to create ‘public service’ programmes to show on BBC channels ."
Um... so the licence fee would pay for programmes direct? hardly draconian
But they would lose overseas sales income.
The sort of thing the Arts Council will make is not going to be the international hits, Top Gear, Teletubbies, or Doctor Who.
Idaho and Hawaii are the interesting ones. Idaho will gauge Trump's support in the West. No idea on Hawaii, caucus as well. On the one hand it could be like Nevada, on the other...
Idaho and Hawaii are the interesting ones. Idaho will gauge Trump's support in the West. No idea on Hawaii, caucus as well. On the one hand it could be like Nevada, on the other...
Idaho is a little more like Utah or Nevada than the rest of the West. There's a large Mormon vote (vide Romney) but on the other hand it's not an urban state at all.
Steve Kornacki @SteveKornacki 1m1 minute ago In exit poll, 61% of Mississippi Dem voters are black -- up from 50% in the 2008 Obama-Clinton primary there.
The media narrative will change once more if Rubio holds Florida (And those early voting returns indicate he might).
They're all totally ridiculously OTT and make our dear @Speedy look as calm as Ben Carson in a GOP debate.
Rubio will surge to favourite.
Or, alternatively, Rubio gets a hammering tonight and loses Florida.
I'm more or less zoned out of the GOP race with Kasich worse result, Rubio 2nd worst, Trump ~ fv of the book and Cruz + but fundamentally profit theoretically locked right now. Just the whole focus on a single poll with a tiny sample size is annoying !
Its a shame Sanders didn't do that more in the previous debates. Hillary is so vulnerable there after all her campaign financing from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, Glass Steagal being repealed under her husband and making student debt non-dischargeable. When I see those students at Hillary's rallies cheering her on it makes me cringe at just how naive they are supporting a dynasty that more than anybody else has consigned them to modern day slavery.
It's bloody hard for me to see a route to the presidency for Kasich. The Vice presidency however...
He's been the favourite or second favourite to de drafted in as Republican VP for quite a while now ...... you have to assume that's his real objective, although the bookies seem to have other ideas, his price for the GOP nomination has shortened further tonight.
Why can't the leavers get ANYONE decent to speak on their behalf? Anyone who thought today was as bad as it gets will be disappointed if they're watching Newsnight.
Newsnight, the programme with such piss poor viewing figures, it's future is in doubt? Don't get too excited Woger.
Chuck ToddVerified account @chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.
A reminder:
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders
Chuck ToddVerified account @chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.
A reminder:
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders
Comments
V.Conservative 50
S.Conservative 34
Moderate 17
This looks good for Cruz.
We expect Cruz to win MS and Kasich to do very well in MI.
EXCLUSIVE by @tnewtondunn: The Queen backs the Brexit thesun.uk/6012Bei3k
So that's the floor for Cruz there.
12 Can win in November
34 shares my values
28 tells it like it is
26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan.
Trump is probably around 40 there.
Remember Daesh got big first not in Syria but in Iraq, as a result of the western invasion ruining the country. There shouldn't just be war crimes trials: there should be reparations. They're unlikely to happen, so yes, give a room if you can.
Outsider 52
Experience 39
Anti trade 53
Pro trade 34
Deport immigrants 37
Legal status for immigrants 56.
What you're doing is coming up with a perfectly reasonable supposition, and then seeing it in the tea leaves.
I don't think it is for non-muslims to declare what is true Islam. That is an internal debate.
What we as outsiders can do is easy though. Judge a tree by its fruit.
http://capx.co/britains-obsolescent-conglomerates-are-backing-remain/
The same thing was seen (and I'm pretty sure this was mentioned in the Jay report, but might be wrong) in Rotherham. Many of the girls were seen as of less value because they were non-Muslim and troubled. Men thought they were sluts and treated them as such. This was aided by authorities that not only did not tackle the men, but did not help the would-be victims, sometimes because they believed the girls were also 'worth' less, if not for religious reasons.
The similarity between ISIS and Rotherham et al is that they have put a 'value' on their victims. They perceive their victims, for whatever reason, as being less valuable (e.g. "white trash"), and that excuses their crime.
This might be why in Rotherham a number of Muslim girls were treated in the same way as the white girls (and some boys, if rumours are true). Perhaps those Muslim girls were deemed less 'valued' for some reason (perhaps they'd had a white boyfriend in the past, or perhaps they did not attend mosque). Or perhaps not. Sick people will look for excuses.
IMO the core problems are 1) Valuing some people as less worthy, or unworthy, because they do not follow your cultural or religious mores. 2) Thinking that because you value them less, the laws do not apply to them as they would to the people you do value highly.
Endless medical product commercials on the way if it ever goes...
That 26% probably contains the tactical voters.
Might not be enough for Cruz to overtake Trump.
40% of 26% = 10%
25% of 12% = 3%
10% of 34% = 4%
72% of 34% = 25%
Which would give us 42% - I doubt it - but moreover big error bars. Basically all of 35%-45% which is anywhere from very good to disappointing.
Experience 39 - 5% to Trump = 2%
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/virginia-exit-poll/
Gives Trump 32% of the vote
Hence the wide margin of error
A quarter of voters in #MIGOP say they only made up their minds in the last few days, per early exit poll data.
That's a similar picture with Mississippi.
And 60% there want an outsider, that's 8 points more than Michigan.
Fair for Kasich.
Normal service will be resumed shortly, we hope.
https://twitter.com/PropAgile/status/707336192044474368
Of course african americans in Detroit will carry Hillary to victory.
Trump is definitely in the 40's in Mississippi.
"In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close."
"Working against Trump is his perceived lack of honesty. Just slightly more than half in Mississippi and fewer than half in Michigan think he’s honest and trustworthy. Cruz does better than Trump in both states on this, while Rubio only does better than Trump in Michigan."
" In Michigan, there’s not much daylight between the candidates, where about half say they’d be satisfied with Trump, Cruz and Rubio alike. In Mississippi, six in 10 would be satisfied with both Cruz and Trump, vs. just four in 10 with Rubio. "
I could take photos of Carney and King onto the factory floor of the family business, and few, if any of the staff would have a clue as to who either of them were, or be even remotely interested in their thoughts.
They will however have views on the great migration.
Its very telling that the remain campaign continue to engage in fear, doing precisely the opposite of what Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. Its clear after a fortnight of this campaign that the remain camp have nothing positive to say. And meanwhile the EU finds itself bitterly divided over the migrant crisis. Its no wonder given the backdrop of ever closer union producing precisely the opposite effect of division and rancour that the remain campaign deals in nothing other than fear.
Well as Rooseveldt once said, 'the only thing to fear is fear itself'. I have no fear of a remain campaign that is based on falsehoods and deceit that the ordinary British public can see straight through.
Setting out lots of complete programmes for our international relations over the course of the next 20 years, then arguing over them with your own side, whilst at the same time not even having the means to implement any of them, was always a huge 'Remain' booby trap. For all their faults, if Leave aren't falling into it, good for them.
Michigan my guess would be high 30s.
It's a done deal!
(1) A letter with a 9-character password, diguised with a tear-off sticker
(2) A second letter with a 10-character internet ID
(3) A third letter with the credit card itself, inside another letter with security card over it
(4) Instructions to go to a website for further instructions. On the website, they told me to:
(5) Enter (1) and (2)
(6) Remember my memorable word
(7) Remember my number
(8) Define a new memorable word
(9) Define a new memorable number, of a different length to before.
There is a good security. And there's effing ridiculous security.
That is of course if Kasich and Rubio get compressed in Mississippi at 20%, and Cruz and Rubio at 20 in Michigan.
Rubio + Kasich might be 20% so yes, 40% will be the key for Cruz/Trump.
He added: "Anyway, without sounding pompous, I find it rather distasteful to reveal conversations with the Queen."
Ha ha!
Kasich 35
Cruz 31
Trump 23
Rubio 10
I think Trump is safe in Michigan, though it could be close that 12 point margin is probably not enough to overcome Trump's early lead.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=0
Amazing to think that if the GOP primaries had been run from West to East, instead of vice-versa, Trump would probably have dropped out of the race by now, or been seen as the long-shot, at best...
Rubio will probably fail to get over the threshold in both Michigan and Mississippi for delegates.
Really, I mean really.
They're all totally ridiculously OTT and make our dear @Speedy look as calm as Ben Carson in a GOP debate.
In exit poll, 61% of Mississippi Dem voters are black -- up from 50% in the 2008 Obama-Clinton primary there.
Hillary is going for 80 in Mississippi.
Or, alternatively, Rubio gets a hammering tonight and loses Florida.
It looks like Hillary 55-45 over Sanders.
Assuming that Sanders supporters are the only ones that don't trust Hillary.
Michigan 23
Mississippi 26.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/06/politics/democratic-debate-highlights/
Its a shame Sanders didn't do that more in the previous debates. Hillary is so vulnerable there after all her campaign financing from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, Glass Steagal being repealed under her husband and making student debt non-dischargeable. When I see those students at Hillary's rallies cheering her on it makes me cringe at just how naive they are supporting a dynasty that more than anybody else has consigned them to modern day slavery.
Fox News is leaking the exit polls like a rusty bucket.
First results probably in 100 minutes.
Enough for a movie.
"Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.
A reminder:
12 Can win in November
34 shares my values
28 tells it like it is
26 Can bring change
Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago
Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders
But Trump looks safe.
Trump 36
Kasich 26
Shares values
Cruz 37
Kasich 29
Rubio 14
Trump 12
Unfair campaign
Trump 40
Cruz 29