Chuck ToddVerified account @chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.
A reminder:
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders
But Trump looks safe.
Looks bad for Rubi-o
Looks very good for Trump. Cruz and Kasich may come a strong second but Trump looks like he is leading comfortably in both Mississippi and Michigan.
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi. It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi. It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
Mini ice age? After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi. It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
That article has the funniest correction I have seen. *Correction, March 2, 2016: This post originally misidentified Marco Rubio as nonwhite. He is not nonwhite; he is Hispanic. (Return.) That's the problem with the definition 'Hispanic'.
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi. It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi. It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
Mini ice age? After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Mini ice age? After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
Mini ice age? After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
Easter falls close to my birthday this year. I've had bright sunshine, snow, thunder, hail before...
Mini ice age? After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
We've had a mild winter until this cold run in late February and early March. Forecast at the moment for Easter at the end of March looks very interesting but I won't say any more. Across the world we've seen snow for the first time in modern times 300km south of Hanoi, and in Okinawa at 26N in Japan. Moscow currently getting lots of snow in March. Mexico has had a very severe cold winter.
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Do you know a guy called Piers Corbyn?
I do, and I have quoted him extensively on here in the past. His weatheraction website is a must for any serious meteorologist, and his peer reviewed long range forecasts are second to none. For example he had the cold snap that we've had over the past 4 or 5 days pinned down 100 days ahead. I shan't spill the beans about what he has forecast for Easter but its interesting to say the least!
Easter falls close to my birthday this year. I've had bright sunshine, snow, thunder, hail before...
Statistically its more likely to snow at Easter (whenever it falls) compared to Christmas. We had snow in Easter 2008, and I remember orienteering near Dolgellau in North Wales when it snowed at Easter in 1998, and hailed pretty hard too.
I'm +110 on Kasich mostly as a trading bet -can't decide whether to cash in, wait for a good result or go to bed. I'm inclined to hang on - he's going to do OK in MI, I think.
"It is understood Mr Whittingdale is considering offering bodies such as the Arts Council the chance to bid for licence fee cash to create ‘public service’ programmes to show on BBC channels ."
Um... so the licence fee would pay for programmes direct? hardly draconian
But they would lose overseas sales income.
I wouldn't trust ACE to create anything. They are one of the most useless quangos out there. Rewarding nepotism and wasting public money.
And I support proper public support of the arts - just ACE ceased to be fit for purpose years ago.
Trump ahead in MS with nearly every voting group except hardcore conservatives - does best among older, less educated men.
That result is a bit meh - Trump will probably be happiest because he's winning and it doesn't change much. Cruz did well but not fabulously in a very conservative state. Terrible for Rubioand Kasich but they weren't really trying there.
Trump ahead in MS with nearly every voting group except hardcore conservatives - does best among older, less educated men.
That result is a bit meh - Trump will probably be happiest because he's winning and it doesn't change much. Cruz did well but not fabulously in a very conservative state. Terrible for Rubioand Kasich but they weren't really trying there.
You can't write states off if you actually want to win.
I need a few more votes in to project Michigan for Trump. As long as he is tied with Kasich in the Detroit suburbs and beat him by 2-1 in rural Michigan he should be OK, but it's too early.
Chuck ToddVerified account @chucktodd 14m14 minutes ago "Change" voters favor Trump in MS by 2-1 margin. "Values" voters favor Cruz in MS by an even bigger margin.
A reminder:
12 Can win in November 34 shares my values 28 tells it like it is 26 Can bring change
Cruz could be around 30-35 in Mississippi.
Chuck Todd @chucktodd 9m9 minutes ago Cruz is winning late deciders in MS but not by a huge margin. Trump was competitive with late deciders
I need a few more votes in to project Michigan for Trump. As long as he is tied with Kasich in the Detroit suburbs and beat him by 2-1 in rural Michigan he should be OK, but it's too early.
Presumably the birther stuff will hurt Trump in Hawaii where Obama has his highest approval ratings? It doesn't look like there will be good news for the stop Trump camp anywhere else tonight.
Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.
Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.
not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.
not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
Well ahead of the polls, but I see Betfair moving slightly against him, and Trump shifting in.
Sanders ahead all over the state - but presumably downtown Detroit has yet to report and will have a huge Clinton vote. All the same, looking good for Sanders compared with expectation, likewise Kasich.
not sure about Kasich, market expected him to be competitive (>10% chance of winning). however that might not have fed into the media/population as a whole
Well ahead of the polls, but I see Betfair moving slightly against him, and Trump shifting in.
Polls put him at 26% approximately, though with big margin (21v33). He's on 30% at the moment
Dems: Still almost no votes reported from Wayne county in Detroit - strongly suspect that will put Clinton ahead. But should be reasonably close overall, as Sanders is winning almost everywhere else.
So Rubio has lost both his battles against thresholds it seems. Can Trump take 50% in Mississippi? Big impact on delegates if congressional districts are
On the GOP side the Detroit suburbs have almost finished counting, that was Kasich best area, so Trump's lead will only grow, and Kasich's lead over Cruz will get smaller.
Possibly not a bad night for Cruz as Rubio is fading fast and Kasich's momentum stalled. Opposition to Trump coalescing around Cruz. Obviously Trump rightly favourite but I think Cruz is not looking so badly placed as some think.
Will the GOP throw in the towel after tonight? It's clear now that Trump has seen off Rubio and withstood the all the oppo attacks they could muster.
The attacks by the establishment back fired, people like Romney reminded voters why they hate people like Romney. And Romney campaigned for both Rubio and Kasich in Michigan.
Also it's clear that the NBC/WSJ poll is crap, due to their flawed methodology, as I suspected.
Possibly not a bad night for Cruz as Rubio is fading fast and Kasich's momentum stalled. Opposition to Trump coalescing around Cruz. Obviously Trump rightly favourite but I think Cruz is not looking so badly placed as some think.
What would Cruz poll in NY? That's the question. Even as the non-Trump candidate.
Although I agree it's a good night for Cruz, it may well not be enough.
Will the GOP throw in the towel after tonight? It's clear now that Trump has seen off Rubio and withstood the all the oppo attacks they could muster.
No, they will wait until next Tuesday when Trump humiliates Rubio in Florida and beats Kasich in Ohio, then they will decide whether to take cyanide or electrocute themselves as the race becomes a Trump v Cruz head to head!
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5s4t-lLZ84
Cruz and Kasich may come a strong second but Trump looks like he is leading comfortably in both Mississippi and Michigan.
After a few harsh winters this one looks like spring.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/707353974874226689
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/707358738408153089
Late deciders are 26% in Mississippi.
It sure looks like a 2 way race there, but the 10 point margin is probably not enough for Cruz to beat Trump, Trump is definitely over 40 there, he could hit or break his Nevada record.
In contrast Trump described New Hampshire as bucolic. If only he could talk down to the little guy like Romney can...
This video gives a good indicator of what to expect going into the grand solar minimum around 2030:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I_lsZCAWi4
It should cool significantly under La Nina conditions over the next few years, and then it should get noticeably cooler particularly from 2019. I think it'll take until then until we're finally rid of the global warming nonsense, but a lot of people are facing the wrong way right now.
Glad to see his backers have wasted a fortune.
That article has the funniest correction I have seen.
*Correction, March 2, 2016: This post originally misidentified Marco Rubio as nonwhite. He is not nonwhite; he is Hispanic. (Return.)
That's the problem with the definition 'Hispanic'.
This time it was Cromwell spouting his "Rubio will crush all in his path" rubbish.
Last time it was the fabulously deluded Stuart Truth.
Outsider (60% of voters)
Trump 70
Cruz 26
Rubio 2
Kasich 1
Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CclQ1tGmGws
Good night all. And good night to the Rubio campaign. Not before time.
Shares my values (34%)
Cruz 64
Trump 13
Rubio 12
Kasich 10.
New material for Trump in due course.
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/707301337722032129
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/707301845136322560
And I support proper public support of the arts - just ACE ceased to be fit for purpose years ago.
To early for the GOP, but Trump considerably ahead of Cruz.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/
Trump 45
Cruz 35.5
Rubio 9
Kasich 7.5
I'm good with Puzzles, right were I projected.
GOP
Trump 45
Cruz 35.5
Rubio 9
Kasich 7.5
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/
Clinton 78 (projected winner)
Sanders 22
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/Dem
Trump 49
Cruz 36
Rubio 9
That result is a bit meh - Trump will probably be happiest because he's winning and it doesn't change much. Cruz did well but not fabulously in a very conservative state. Terrible for Rubioand Kasich but they weren't really trying there.
"Mississippi:
12 Can win in November
34 shares my values
28 tells it like it is
26 Can bring change
That's 4 points better (tells it like it is) for Trump than in Michigan.
Trump is probably around 40 there"
"Trump gets 42% of all voters just from this one category."
With just less than 1% in from one Detroit suburban county:
Kasich 36
Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 8
exactly the same, must be an error
Sanders 52.2%
Clinton 47.1%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
Trump 35.5
Kasich 35.5
Cruz 19
Rubio 8
Rural Michigan is going 2-1 for Trump.
Kasich barely tied with Trump in the Detroit suburbs.
GOP
Trump 35.6%
Kasich 35.3%
Cruz 18.8%
Rubio 7.8%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/
Dems (6% in)
Sanders 52.4%
Clinton 46.9%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/
Michigan (early results) 8 to 9%, well under threshold of 15%. Same for Mississippi based on exit polls.
That's Marco Rubio 0 v 2 Voting thresholds
On the Republican side, Kasich has certainly done well enough to stay in the race.
As long as he is tied with Kasich in the Detroit suburbs and beat him by 2-1 in rural Michigan he should be OK, but it's too early.
Trump 36
Kasich 34
Cruz 19
Rubio 8
Is that an endorsement of Trump?
Cruz might catch up to him for second.
Best site to watch the results.
Very good night for Trump, they threw the kitchen sink at him and after that debate and those caucus results.
GOP 15% in
Trump 38.1%
Kasich 28.7%
Cruz 20.4%
Rubio 8.8%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep
Dems 22% in
Sanders 50.1%
Clinton 48.2%
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
GOP: yes, Trump by a clear margin now.
All over on the GOP side - good night for Trump.
And Romney campaigned for both Rubio and Kasich in Michigan.
Also it's clear that the NBC/WSJ poll is crap, due to their flawed methodology, as I suspected.
Although I agree it's a good night for Cruz, it may well not be enough.
It'd be hilarious if the racial model gave a better result than the polling.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem
- mouse over counties to see the huge Wayne,Macomb and Oakland counties in the southeast (=Detroit plus suburbs).