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edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab,

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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    3 months to go until vote day and we might not know who leads one side.

    But less about a brokered covention
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Second - like Leave
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    The market is always right !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?????????????????????????
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    A seriously boring market. I'm just waiting for my "Yes" to come in on the EU ref during this Gov't tbh.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The line on the graph above looks very like the YouGov daily tracker last April. Could they be related?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    The thresholds are

    15% Michigan - polls on 12-14%
    15% Mississippi - poll on 16% (got just 11.2% in neighbouring Louisiana - less than polls)
    20% Idaho - poll on 16%
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    UKIP Welsh lists

    South Wales West

    1) Caroline Jones 2) Martyn Ford 3) Colin Beckett 4) Malcolm Biggs

    South Wales East

    1) Mark Reckless 2) David Rawlands 3) Susan Boucher 4) Julie Price

    South Wales Central

    1) Gareth Bennett 2) Alex Phillips 3) Mohammed Islam 4) Liz Wilks

    North Wales

    1) Nathan Gill MEP 2) Michelle Brown 3) Mandy Jones 4) David Edwards

    Mid and West Wales

    1) Neil Hamilton 2) Gethin James 3) Des Parkinson 4) Howard Lillymam

  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    Not on Betfair. Those idiots will see it as his golden opportunity and pile more money in.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    If he dropped out before Florida, the state would then be in play for Cruz?
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    Not on Betfair. Those idiots will see it as his golden opportunity and pile more money in.
    I've take 1.25 on Rubio to be first. No way Cruz goes first (racing certainty), which leaves it a shot to nothing that Rubio doesn't make it

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/461774/US+Government+Special.html

    I couldn't see another way to monetise this except back Trump in Florida on pretty short odds.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    If he dropped out before Florida, the state would then be in play for Cruz?
    There's in play and there's in play, odds on 11 would come in to maybe 6.

    It's already advantage Trump though.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    What odds Rubio doesn't win a single delegate in the continental United States on Tuesday?

    If that happens then it surely is Goodnight Rubio Tuesday.
    Have we not done that already? Twice?

    What is Rubio doing still being in this ? Kasich is presumably thinking VP but Trump and Cruz would both have a toss up between Rubio and Sanders for that role. As well as being an astonishingly incompetent candidate he now looks like a really bad loser as well.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TOPPING


    'That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.'


    What is it with Khan & his pals ?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Much though I would like Rubio to pull out, given that I've got a big red on him both for RepNom and Prez, I can't imagine that he will do so before FL a week tomorrow. If he loses FL, I expect that's the end. If he somehow manages to win it, he'll stagger on.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Idaho Dems

    Sanders 47
    Clinton 45

    http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    On topic this is a really dull market. Everyone thinks Remain will win and yet the odds on a black swan are modest and disappointing. What sort of odds would be worth a punt on Leave? Surely at least 6/1, probably more.

    You would be betting on a migrant melt down/ Euro collapse before June. By the people who have made kick the can a continental sport. Just not going to happen. And Cameron? He plays hard ball.

    The US is much more interesting.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    john_zims said:

    @TOPPING


    'That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.'


    What is it with Khan & his pals ?

    You may know a man by the company he keeps....

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    HYUFD said:

    Idaho Dems

    Sanders 47
    Clinton 45

    http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary

    Great numbers for Hilary.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much though I would like Rubio to pull out, given that I've got a big red on him both for RepNom and Prez, I can't imagine that he will do so before FL a week tomorrow. If he loses FL, I expect that's the end. If he somehow manages to win it, he'll stagger on.

    Do you think he's a lay at current prices?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    So far the Saturday results confirmed my verdict of the Fox debate, and the post debate polls reflect that too.

    It could be a methodology problem with Monmouth polls that show Trump's lead collapsing in both Michigan and Florida, but those and ARG are the only post debate polls published so far.

    We will see tomorrow, the Saturday results indicate a real problem for Trump, the Tuesday results will give us the full extent of the damage.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Idaho Dems

    Sanders 47
    Clinton 45

    http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary

    Great numbers for Hilary.
    Though as it is a caucus Sanders will likely do a bit better
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pong said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much though I would like Rubio to pull out, given that I've got a big red on him both for RepNom and Prez, I can't imagine that he will do so before FL a week tomorrow. If he loses FL, I expect that's the end. If he somehow manages to win it, he'll stagger on.

    Do you think he's a lay at current prices?
    He'll come in if he does win FL, but disappear if he doesn't. Maybe on balance the odds are about right.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited March 2016
    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.

    By the way I think that my commentary on the debates so far are more valuable that what the consensus verdicts are.
    If someone followed my advice on Friday morning, based on my debate verdict, and placed a bet on Cruz and shorted Trump he would have made money with the Saturday results.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pong said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much though I would like Rubio to pull out, given that I've got a big red on him both for RepNom and Prez, I can't imagine that he will do so before FL a week tomorrow. If he loses FL, I expect that's the end. If he somehow manages to win it, he'll stagger on.

    Do you think he's a lay at current prices?
    He'll come in if he does win FL, but disappear if he doesn't. Maybe on balance the odds are about right.
    If he fails to win a single continental delegate tomorrow night, he won't pull out. But even an unlikely win in Florida wouldn't save his campaign.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Possible chink of light for the 'Leavers'. Inviting Turkey to join would be very unpopular I suspect.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @thhamilton: This point by @JananGanesh applies more widely than just to referendum campaigns. https://t.co/HNJXGh7zqI
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited March 2016
    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    If he fails to win a single continental delegate tomorrow night, he won't pull out. But even an unlikely win in Florida wouldn't save his campaign.

    Probably not, but it would see him remain in the race, and probably shift betting sentiment.

    Given the twists we've already seen in this campaign, who knows? Ted Cruz was 70.0 for RepNom less than 10 days ago.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pong said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much though I would like Rubio to pull out, given that I've got a big red on him both for RepNom and Prez, I can't imagine that he will do so before FL a week tomorrow. If he loses FL, I expect that's the end. If he somehow manages to win it, he'll stagger on.

    Do you think he's a lay at current prices?
    He'll come in if he does win FL, but disappear if he doesn't. Maybe on balance the odds are about right.
    If he fails to win a single continental delegate tomorrow night, he won't pull out. But even an unlikely win in Florida wouldn't save his campaign.
    Rubio is in it not for himself anymore, he is a tool for Romney.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @isam


    'Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor'


    Doubt it with all his baggage, it would have been a walk in the park for Jowell
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    MarqueeMark said:

    john_zims said:

    @TOPPING


    'That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.'


    What is it with Khan & his pals ?

    You may know a man by the company he keeps....

    It didn't seem to do Boris any damage when his chum Darius Guppy was all over the press
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    Those early voting figures are NOT what I expected from FL.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    Those early voting figures are NOT what I expected from FL.
    You expected Trump?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    Look at the polling average.
    N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    Those early voting figures are NOT what I expected from FL.
    You expected Trump?
    Yes.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    Those early voting figures are NOT what I expected from FL.
    Indeed usually Trump is way ahead with early voters and Rubio is getting the late deciders, in that poll it's the reverse.

    It could be a methodology problem, that's why we have to wait for tomorrow's results to see if Monmouth is accurate.
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    Look at the polling average.
    N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
    Your boy, Cruz, was supposed to have swept through the South by now. He's flopped miserably.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Trump +920.34
    Rubio +1110.09
    Cruz +1230.34
    Kasich +1165.54
    Carson +256.82
    Ryan +924.77
    Romney +907.43
    Bush +771.12

    C Christie +1070.81
    Fiorina +59.78
    Uncle Tom Cobley +232.69
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    Those early voting figures are NOT what I expected from FL.
    Indeed usually Trump is way ahead with early voters and Rubio is getting the late deciders, in that poll it's the reverse.

    It could be a methodology problem, that's why we have to wait for tomorrow's results to see if Monmouth is accurate.
    In northern Florida that poll has Trump 36 and Rubio 32. Northern Florida votes like Georgia in the east and Alabama in the west. Lousy poll.

    Good Idaho poll, remember a primary not a caucus so the evangelicals and mormons won't be bussed in like in KS. Still a strong second more likely, which is good enough. Oh for a more recent poll.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    Look at the polling average.
    N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
    Nevada too but Rubio should be winning his home state comfortably, the fact Trump is even in contention to win it shows how deep is the trouble Rubio is in and it is not a life or death state for Trump which it is for Rubio, if he loses it he is out
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Trump and Cruz still +14 and +19 green in POTUS, Sanders still -1k :)
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    I believe you were calling Michigan for Katich yesterday. Still confident?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    You'll be back in. I thought I was out but then the siren call of idiots with money will pull you back.
  • LondonBob
    LondonBob Posts: 467
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    Look at the polling average.
    N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
    Nevada too but Rubio should be winning his home state comfortably, the fact Trump is even in contention to win it shows how deep is the trouble Rubio is in and it is not a life or death state for Trump which it is for Rubio, if he loses it he is out
    Florida is as much Trump's home state, same for Nevada.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I don't trust the republican party at all, can just see them putting in greasy little Rubio after he's lost everything at a brokered convention.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    London voted Labour last year by 44% to the Tories 35% at a time when the country voted Tory 37% to 30%. London is now 59% white 41% non white. London, certainly inner London, is virtually the only place in the country Jeremy Corbyn has increased Labour's popularity. I would still make Khan the favourite, Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this is a really dull market. Everyone thinks Remain will win and yet the odds on a black swan are modest and disappointing. What sort of odds would be worth a punt on Leave? Surely at least 6/1, probably more.

    You would be betting on a migrant melt down/ Euro collapse before June. By the people who have made kick the can a continental sport. Just not going to happen. And Cameron? He plays hard ball.

    The US is much more interesting.

    I imagine the indyref market was quite dull, in a similar way, about 4 months out? Then the campaign "livened up".

    The Indyref was traumatic from day 1 to the end. In comparison the Euroref is like choosing between a merlot and a rioja. On any given day you have a preference but you know, life goes on.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    SeanT said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.
    BETTING ADVISORY

    You can get 9/4 against Zac Goldsmith, for London mayor, as of this moment. After this latest revelation, that might evince a smidgen of VALUE.
    Tight odds for the Green Party candidate.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited March 2016
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've folded in the GOP market, taking roughly £1k profit no matter who wins.

    Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.

    You'll be back in. I thought I was out but then the siren call of idiots with money will pull you back.
    Still playing in the POTUS market, just want some "banked" profits in the GOP nom :)

    And yes, I probably will be back in ;)
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    London voted Labour last year by 44% to the Tories 35% at a time when the country voted Tory 37% to 35%. London, certainly inner London, is virtually the only place in the country Jeremy Corbyn has increased Labour's popularity. I would still make Khan the favourite, Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!
    Hasn't a large portion of Labour's inner London vote recently disappeared?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 9m9 minutes ago
    Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters

    Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
    That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    London voted Labour last year by 44% to the Tories 35% at a time when the country voted Tory 37% to 35%. London, certainly inner London, is virtually the only place in the country Jeremy Corbyn has increased Labour's popularity. I would still make Khan the favourite, Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!
    Hasn't a large portion of Labour's inner London vote recently disappeared?
    Probably just a portion of the non-voters and no longer living there. Something to be aware of for anyone betting on turnout.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 9m9 minutes ago
    Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters

    Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
    That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.

    He may have the lead even if it hasn't. Michigan will be a good tester, for him and for Rubio (the threshold there is 15%!)
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    Speedy said:

    So far the Saturday results confirmed my verdict of the Fox debate, and the post debate polls reflect that too.

    It could be a methodology problem with Monmouth polls that show Trump's lead collapsing in both Michigan and Florida, but those and ARG are the only post debate polls published so far.

    We will see tomorrow, the Saturday results indicate a real problem for Trump, the Tuesday results will give us the full extent of the damage.

    The Michigan & Florida Monmouth polls were both partly conducted pre-debate.

    The Fox2Detroit Michigan poll on the other hand has fieldwork that was entirely post debate on 6th and gives Trump a 22% lead.

  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited March 2016
    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Put down your copy of Guido's Bhuttan Gazette and stop the drama queen crap.

    So far one of Khan's colleagues has been shown to be a clown. If you look closely at Cameron's Bullingdon photo you'll see that's not uncommon among politicians mates and that's before you even get to Andy Coulson ....... yet he became and remained PM.

    Time to smell the Yaks milk and go visit some phalluses.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 38s39 seconds ago
    Another finding from Ohio- if GOP voters had to pick between Trump and Romney, they'd take Trump 52/36

    Kasich should be around 31% then, if Rubio has 5%.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    LondonBob said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Siena New York poll

    GOP
    Trump 45
    Rubio 18
    Kasich 18
    Cruz 11

    Dems
    Clinton 55
    Sanders 34

    General election

    Clinton 57
    Trump 34

    Clinton 56
    Rubio 35

    Clinton 49
    Kasich 42

    Clinton 58
    Cruz 33

    Sanders 57
    Trump 33

    Sanders 58
    Rubio 32

    Sanders 54
    Kasich 35

    Sanders 63
    Cruz 26


    Clinton 42
    Trump 25
    Bloomberg 26

    Sanders 42
    Trump 24
    Bloomberg 28
    https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

    This is more important, new Florida poll, it's post debate:

    Monmouth

    Trump 38
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 10

    Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.

    Marc CaputoVerified account ‏@MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
    Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
    So Rubio still trails Trump by almost double digits in his home state, head to head is of course irrelevant as there will be four candidates running, what is clear is Trump has taken a minor dent from the debate but nothing to topple his lead and next Tuesday Rubio will most likely suspend his campaign
    We will see, tomorrow night will prove who is right.
    But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
    Always? The final poll in NH had it Trump 33% Kasich 17%, Trump won 35% to 15.8%. The final poll in S Carolina had it Trump 26% Rubio 24%, Trump won 35% to Rubio's 22%. The final poll in Nevada had it Trump 39% Cruz 23%, Trump won with 45%. The final poll in Kentucky had Trump on 35%, he got 35%.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
    Look at the polling average.
    N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
    Nevada too but Rubio should be winning his home state comfortably, the fact Trump is even in contention to win it shows how deep is the trouble Rubio is in and it is not a life or death state for Trump which it is for Rubio, if he loses it he is out
    Florida is as much Trump's home state, same for Nevada.
    Trump's home state is New York, the fact he has hotels in Miami and Las Vegas does not make them his home states!
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    March of the Makers in the Northern Powerhouse:

    'ThyssenKrupp Woodhead: Flooded spring factory set to close'

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-35744975

    Added bonus:

    'Options are being considered for a new production site, with "Eastern Europe the most likely location", the company said.'
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Someone had a 5000/1 bet on Leciester. Chose to cash out for around £70k rather than hold on and hope for a £250,000 win if they get the title:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-35747633
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 38s39 seconds ago
    Another finding from Ohio- if GOP voters had to pick between Trump and Romney, they'd take Trump 52/36

    Kasich should be around 31% then, if Rubio has 5%.

    And Trump is on 52%?!

    Your conclusion is solid, Kasich could easily be on 31%. Your methodology isn't.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 9m9 minutes ago
    Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters

    Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
    That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.

    You must have an awful book on Trump.

    It's the only way to explain your repeated (and increasingly desperate) posts on here trying to "prove" it's all over for him.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 38s39 seconds ago
    Another finding from Ohio- if GOP voters had to pick between Trump and Romney, they'd take Trump 52/36

    Kasich should be around 31% then, if Rubio has 5%.

    And Trump is on 52%?!

    Your conclusion is solid, Kasich could easily be on 31%. Your methodology isn't.
    Nope, that 52% should be Trump+Cruz voters.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Speedy said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 38s39 seconds ago
    Another finding from Ohio- if GOP voters had to pick between Trump and Romney, they'd take Trump 52/36

    Kasich should be around 31% then, if Rubio has 5%.

    And Trump is on 52%?!

    Your conclusion is solid, Kasich could easily be on 31%. Your methodology isn't.
    Nope, that 52% should be Trump+Cruz voters.
    Who have very little in common. Particularly when you think Romney spoke out against Trump but not Cruz.

    Hopefully we'll get the crossbreaks later.

    Incidentally if you split the 52% even slightly unevenly, Kasich no longer leads.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @Speedy What is your betting position out of interest ?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Casino_Royale said:

    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 9m9 minutes ago
    Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters

    Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
    That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.

    You must have an awful book on Trump.

    It's the only way to explain your repeated (and increasingly desperate) posts on here trying to "prove" it's all over for him.
    I don't have any, anticipating the roller coaster I bailed out of the GOP race a week before Iowa.
    So I'm now a tranquil observer, not having to worry about the betting odds going up and down like on a trampoline.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Speedy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Speedy said:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 9m9 minutes ago
    Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters

    Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
    That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.

    You must have an awful book on Trump.

    It's the only way to explain your repeated (and increasingly desperate) posts on here trying to "prove" it's all over for him.
    I don't have any, anticipating the roller coaster I bailed out of the GOP race a week before Iowa.
    So I'm now a tranquil observer, not having to worry about the betting odds going up and down like on a trampoline.
    You sound anything but tranquil.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @HYUFD

    'Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!'


    Khan is doing a great job motivating voters in the suburbs to turn out.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited March 2016
    Marco Rubio, beware the Ides of March.

    I feel this would work better with Trump, but never mind.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

    This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

    More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
    Not to mention ethnic quotas

    Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
    The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

    He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

    London voted Labour last year by 44% to the Tories 35% at a time when the country voted Tory 37% to 35%. London, certainly inner London, is virtually the only place in the country Jeremy Corbyn has increased Labour's popularity. I would still make Khan the favourite, Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!
    Hasn't a large portion of Labour's inner London vote recently disappeared?
    The latest London yougov poll has Labour leading the Tories 44% to 37%
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e2hjduyzxn/LBCResults_London_Mayor_160106_Website.pdf
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Looks like Rubio has picked up 5 delegates from Louisiana, after some last-minute rule change or clarification. [I still don't quite see how]
    http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
    I wish they'd stop doing that!
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    @Speedy What is your betting position out of interest ?

    Right now none, as I said multiple times I bailed out a week before Iowa, you can even check my comments from back then when I told everyone.

    I came on the Trump train in May and last I bet on him just after the new year.
    Also a bit on Carson way back when he first announced, but I regretted it a bit after he collapsed in late November, Trump doing a Columbo impersonation to dissect Carson was unexpected.

    So I'm fine and stress free to observe the car crash from a safe distance.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    RodCrosby said:

    Looks like Rubio has picked up 5 delegates from Louisiana, after some last-minute rule change or clarification. [I still don't quite see how]
    http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
    I wish they'd stop doing that!

    They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    john_zims said:

    @HYUFD

    'Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!'


    Khan is doing a great job motivating voters in the suburbs to turn out.

    I doubt it will be as high as for Boris, nor enough, especially with Khan getting a high turnout of Muslim voters too
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Looks like Rubio has picked up 5 delegates from Louisiana, after some last-minute rule change or clarification. [I still don't quite see how]
    http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
    I wish they'd stop doing that!

    Next they will award 1000 delegates for Minnesota.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. HYUFD, might be Pyrrhic for Labour.

    A Khan win helps shore up Corbyn even if the locals are bad. And if Khan is less than stellar, he's another target for the Conservatives to attack.
  • flightpath01
    flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @HYUFD

    'Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!'


    Khan is doing a great job motivating voters in the suburbs to turn out.

    I doubt it will be as high as for Boris, nor enough, especially with Khan getting a high turnout of Muslim voters too
    I'm tempted to launch into Jimmy's and Reggie's secret army routine...
  • Wanderer
    Wanderer Posts: 3,838
    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.
    Jokes can be terminal in politics, mind. "There is no money left," was a joke.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Sharapova failed a drugs test at the Australian Open:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/35750285
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    It wont be long before daring to mention that Khan will do well in Tower Hamlets and Newham will be WAAAAYCIST
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Looks like Rubio has picked up 5 delegates from Louisiana, after some last-minute rule change or clarification. [I still don't quite see how]
    http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
    I wish they'd stop doing that!

    They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.
    How does a guy who wins 11% statewide pick up a delegate in 5 out of the 6 CDs?
    And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. HYUFD, might be Pyrrhic for Labour.

    A Khan win helps shore up Corbyn even if the locals are bad. And if Khan is less than stellar, he's another target for the Conservatives to attack.

    May well be the case, a lot of Tories would rather see Zac lose than Corbyn be toppled, including perhaps the PM himself (especially given they are not exactly eye to eye on everything at the moment). By contrast many Labour backbenchers will be rooting for Zac!
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sharapova failed a drugs test at the Australian Open:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/35750285

    Wow. Probably would've been better for her if the retirement rumours had been true...
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Pulpstar said:

    I don't trust the republican party at all, can just see them putting in greasy little Rubio after he's lost everything at a brokered convention.

    Yes, they probably want to win.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    I once bet on Marco Rubio at 6/1. Never again. #NeverAgainRubio
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.
    Jokes can be terminal in politics, mind. "There is no money left," was a joke.
    We want politicians to be human, except when they do something human
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    Wanderer said:

    TOPPING said:

    john_zims said:

    Another Labour car crash.


    'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

    Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

    He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

    Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

    That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.

    It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.
    Jokes can be terminal in politics, mind. "There is no money left," was a joke.
    Boris may prove to be terminal as well :smiley:
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
    1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
    5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
    6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @isam

    'It wont be long before daring to mention that Khan will do well in Tower Hamlets and Newham will be WAAAAYCIST'


    Was the former Mayor of Tower Hamlets also one of Khan's pals ?

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
    1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
    5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
    6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????

    At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    HYUFD said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
    1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
    4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
    5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
    6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????

    At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
    That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?
This discussion has been closed.

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