politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The White House Race, the referendum and the political bets of the week in the PB/Polling Matters TV Show
Our fourth pilot TV show sees Keiran Pedley of Polling Matters and myself welcome the Labour peer and Oxford academic, Lord (Stewart) Wood of Anfield and the media relations director of William Hill, Graham Sharpe.
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If I may offer one suggestion;
It would be great to have the mike/keiran/guests suggest odds/%'ages if views differ from the BF market.
In 2007, the SNP promised to scrap council tax, but Ms Sturgeon insisted the latest reform plans were “fair and progressive”. She waved aside suggestions that it was unfair to continue to base council tax payments on what properties were worth in 1991.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd6c39ba-e06b-11e5-96b7-9f778349aba2.html#ixzz41oUEWSfZ
So, if they weren't going to scrap Council Tax - why has it taken 9 years to come up with this?
The involvement of so many individuals raises the possibility, as any lawyer would know, that immunity will be granted in exchange for testimony, tightening the noose around Clinton. And that is just one of Clinton’s problems.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/02/11/the-democrats-dilemma-clinton-may-not-be-salvageable/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_1_na
Not to insult the guest but this was a tad puerile.
A whole day to get suitable comestibles at the ready for the GOP debate tonight.
Popcorn shares - Buy Buy Buy !!
Do you think ST changed anything?
Trump still value for POTUS?
This was the only rebuttal I could see:
“Big foreign, multinational companies like the EU because they spend millions lobbying it in order to stitch up the rules in their favour – forcing smaller players out of business.”
We see that in my sector - both at a UK level and an EU level. Big companies like regulation because (a) it creates barriers to entry and (b) because they are larger they can amortise the fixed costs across a greater revenue base, so it creates a competitive advantage against smaller firms.
Vote Leave's response appears entirely reasonable - although, as with all political positions it could be rebutted - but absolutely not "tin foil"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35712772
"Internet "trolls" could face criminal charges for creating fake profiles, according to guidance being considered for prosecutors in England and Wales.
The Crown Prosecution Service says adults should be charged if they use fake social media IDs to harass others.
Cases would also follow if posts were indecent, grossly offensive or so false they caused distress and anxiety."
Troubling times for Project Fear posters here?
Mind you the material has got a lot better
Who?
He'd probably take North Korea's endorsement of him being a "worthy opponent".
Of course, it could be part of a plan to panic REMAINers out from behind their laptops and into the polling booth - seeing George duffed up by Boris......
*waves*
Yet, daily we are assured they cause nowt but hilarity and general mirth?
But yes, VoteLeave, as usual, are sensible & level headed.....
Edit - the letter itself appears unobjectionable:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35712537
Sheffield Rally.
At least if this legislation goes through, the criminal law would be given the chance to explore whether there was a defence of "being a bit shit" and "not having got a life".
Of course Conservative MPs would be watching closely to see if either man could make their case to the country.
I'd be astonished if that debate goes ahead. It sounds like a political journalist's wet dream but for the Remain side it would be incredibly risky.
But there could still be huge numbers of undecideds, 48 hours out. Imagine the impact if Osborne does come across as all smirky and evasive, and Boris nails the Churchillian rhetoric?
seems like pressure has been put on france to create fear by london
They are excellent at dealing with the world as it is, not as they would like it to be.
If it's in America's interests to be friends with an independent Britain they will be. Although, I would expect them to take full advantage of that to screw us in a free trade agreement
I'm not convinced that it is the case such vagueness will be enough, but emotive appeal seems more effective than getting into a statistics fight or the like.
Tory voters back Remain 43% to 39% but 2015 Tory voters back Leave 37% to 44%
'Come work in Paris and pay punitive French taxes'. Yes, they'll be sprinting to City Airport this morning.
"....France's finance minister has said."
Not Justice. Not Defence. Not Foreign Affairs and International Development.
Finance.
Can I suggest that looks a little, oh I don't know - sad? As if the Chancellor only has one French chum on his speed-dial who he can ask to help out with Project Fear?
I thought all those bankers had already moved to Paris (and Frankfurt) after the UK refused to join the euro.
13 years ago, Nissan said UK should join the Euro or it'd cut back in Sunderland. Today, more cars made in Sunderland than in all of Italy.
Dear Iain,
You have today said that if Britain were to leave the EU “we won't copy any other country's deal. We will have a settlement on our own terms”.
It is now time for you to come clean with the British public about what these terms are and the implications they will have for our economic security and working people’s livelihoods. That means answering the following questions:
https://www.facebook.com/ConservativesIn/posts/198340663862235
And here's another one from the Grauniad - Toyota this time
'The head of one of the world's biggest car companies reignited the debate over the single currency yesterday with a warning for the government that its £1.5bn investment in the UK would be at risk if Britain stayed out of the euro.'
'Toyota managers said yesterday that its UK operations, including a new £200m plant at Burnaston, Derbyshire, would be at risk '
"We told him that if the present situation continues, then at the very least it will be impossible to expand our operations in the UK. If there is no change in the long term, then we will have to decide whether even our existing operations should continue."
All sound very familiar?
Looks like the Remain team have been digging through Danny Alexander's old notes
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/jan/18/emu.theeuro
It's Clinton v Trump in November with Clinton emerging the winner. The scale of her win being dependent on whether elements of the GOP decide to run a spoiler against him, well knowing it will be cataclysmic for Trump and down ticket races.
I'll believe that debate when I see it.
The campaign seems to be between two wings of the Conservative Party, while Labour are off with the fairies fantasising about nuclear disarmament.
We get the occasional comedy moment, but that's it.
Paul Kirkby
The world's greatest meat-eaters.
@OECD chart https://t.co/Aeqxhpqyfk
Last year there were an awful lot of/a lot of awful Hellenic puns in my PB thread headers
Some of my faves
1) Turning the Greek Euro crisis into a Drachma
2) The Greeks have lost their marbles
3) Like a bat out of Hellas
4) Greece is going to be the centaur of attention
Not quite so well choreographed, that one
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181385/Wages-for-British-workers-will-rise-in-the-event-of-a-Brexit-head-of-in-campaign-says.html
The only way Labour get any space in the newscycle between here and June is either by participating in the EU debate which is a lose-lose activity, or through stories of noisy policy divisions, which obviously don't help. The best thing they can do is pursue a dull-but-worthy policy announcement/government critique job which will get little coverage but will enable them to point to track record of speaking on issues when we get back to normal politics later this year.
Indeed he was. I can't see that line playing awfully well with the large fraction of the voters who have seen very slow, if any, real pay growth this last several years. Unlike people such as 'Lord' Rose of course.
The infighting is staggering and the factional positioning hilarious at times. We have Christie prostrating himself before Trump and Romney speaking later today about the horrors of the hair apparent. Meanwhile GOP Congressman Dold of Illinois (11th) disavows Trump at every turn.
There's no way out for the GOP. They've effectively handed POTUS to Clinton. Will they ever learn? certainly not in this cycle.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/clinton-vs-trump-is-not-the-race-hillary-would-have-chosen-a6907906.html
Personally, I am now backing Hillary in hope of recovering losses on Rubio and Bush. I guess I'm an establishment sort of guy.