politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Announcing the Politicalbetting Prize EU referendum competi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Announcing the Politicalbetting Prize EU referendum competition
Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter the LEAVE and turnout pecentage down to decimal points The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error..
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FPT:
ANOTHER ONE! Mark Rylance was Roger's favourite for Best Supporting Actor - which he thought might end up going to Stallone, Home Team & all that - but Rylance has won - deservedly so
Methinks that thanks are also due to Wm. Hill for their generous support in sponsoring this latest competition. They appear to have stolen something of a march over PB.com's erstwhile lead sponsor from among the mightiest *cough* of the bookmaking fraternity.
I forgive them for ridiculously scaling back my attempted placing of a £5 bet a couple of days ago on Osborne ceasing to be Chancellor during calendar 2017. It really makes you wonder how long their board meetings must last, when transactions of this magnitude appear to exercise their collective corporate mind so.
One of the euRefs known unknowns..
Boris encourages the piranhas
and
I agree with Nick
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/nick-clegg-has-changed-my-view-of-his-decision-to-lead-the-lib-dems-into-coalition-with-the-tories-a6900626.html#commentsDiv
I think I got 16 out of 20 which I'm very pleased with because only 4 in my opinion were certainties. Of the 4 I got wrong 3 were very worthy and a toss up with my choices. I wasn't such a fan of the best film 'Spotlight' but I think it was thought to be worthy which didn't really come into my considerations
In addition to Ex Machina, I was really pleased about Mark Rylance. He was superb.
Can't work that one out.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/29/eu-business-scotland-vote-stay-uk-economic-arguments
And Alicia Vikander struck just the right note in The Danish Girl.
Thanks to OGH and William Hill for the latest prediction contest. Best of luck to all.
[update] - Congratulations to Roger on his formidable success wrt last night’s Oscars.
To be a white Anglophone is to possess not one but two unmerited privileges. White Anglophones who claim to believe in race equality have little or no understanding of what it would entail. Planet Earth could not possibly cope with all humanity having a European lifestyle - for two or three generations, at least, after which the birth rate would probably drop to replacement levels. After all, people only have large families because (i) death in childhood is commonplace or (ii) children are the only form of old age pension.
I did get on Ex machina, for a quid, and a few of the other winners.
What on earth is an Anglophone?
Your first line about racist is as ridiculous as it gets.
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Look, some people want to manage migration into the UK, you cry racist, yet the EU tries to manage migration and you support it.
Bit muddled up aren't you.
UKIP replacing the Tories in 2020 ?
Profound thanks to Roger and PfP for the 80/1 on Ex Machina. A good start to the day!
@PolhomeEditor: Fiona Hyslop says the UK Government is "marching us towards the exit door of the EU" ... by recommending we stay in the EU. #r4today
Brexit ‘could leave UK with blackouts and gas shortages’ http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/utilities/article4701374.ece
Probably related to this:
http://www.infowars.com/breaking-insider-leaks-koch-bros-rubio-plan-to-stop-trump/
Totally ludicrous, but...
Anyhow glad I covered up at an equivalent 1088-1.
@PaulBrandITV: Lord Howard tells @GMB he still thinks there could be 2nd EU ref: "If we vote to leave there's a chance they may come back with a 2nd deal"
He rightly sums up the Remain case with 'If you believe this guff, you will believe anything'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/28/euro-twaddle-or-tolstoy-you-choose-your-poisson/
And all those now advocating Remain, they wouldn't accept the result. They'd be shouting "Hang on, don't do anything hasty, let's hear what they have to say..."
Historically, only one country has voted to leave, and they didn't get a 2nd vote
Give over.
It's totally unjustifiable. The Times are also reporting that ministers aren't being told of work commissioned from their own officials. And their staff asked to report directly back to Number 10.
This is way beyond supporting the official HMG line.
Although the EU is still hoping to get Greenland back in at some point...greedily eyeing Arctic resources.
Indeed. It's the 45 minutes claim all over again.
But it's not just him - a whole swathe of Tory cabinet ministers are telling whopping outright lies every day.
Suggestions?
And this is nothing to do with internal Tory politics. It's to do with all those Labour voters. You really think they want to vote alongside Cameron? You really think they want to admit they are being bullied into voting to Remain by Cameron? The Labour vote is key to this Referendum. If he can peel them away from Remain - Leave wins. Simple as. And Cameron has spent the past month giving Boris all the ammunition he needs.
George Galloway. Widely detested and derided by the people who don't hate Farage
How can he last until anywhere close to 2020 when so many of his own MPs think he failed and is either lying to the public or is an idiot, the implication of what us being said, particularly when many think he is being unfair?
So basically if we REMAIN in Europe we are far more likely to get blackouts (brownouts).
The centenary year of the Easter Rising and the country can't form a government.
Or perhaps not.
Besides which, the point was that this not an issue the political class and elites are united upon, even if 'the establishment' is mostly for remain. I media and elsewhere leave has the voice it needs to counter anything thrown at it. It will be disappointing if it fails to do so, but not inevitable, hence on us if it does not.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
And the centrists in the Labour Party don't hear anything from their Party leader.
http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/dublin-bay-north
As Andrew Roberts says yesterday, our ancestors wouldn't give tuppence for any of this nonsense.
I suspect that is because they are finding out, like the Nats, that if you want to win a referendum you need a coherent argument.
You can huff and puff about about freedom and Nationality (Call yourself an Englishman!) but if you want ticks in boxes you need a rational reason to vote that way
And the Outers haven't got it, or anyone who can articulate it, or even agree what it might look like
Well done to Roger for the Oscars tips, a few winners in there.
Just watched this, John Oliver's 20 minute takedown of Trump from last night, now trending second behind the Oscars. His audience is mostly liberals who would never vote for the guy, but we all know Trump will respond to it in the only way he knows how!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ
I have to admit the Europhiles have been highly amusing in the drivel they've pumped out. I think they're scaring themselves as much as anything else.
The unpreparedness of the Leave side is extraordinary. To demand a referendum, to get years' notice that one was on the way and then to have no answers to obvious lines of attack denotes political ineptitude of a different order of magnitude from that we have seen before from an entire political movement.
Make your prediction competition estimates accordingly.
"speaking on Germany's ARD television, Mrs Merkel said she had no "Plan B" and would not change course, rejecting a proposed limit on migration."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35684093
Where he has misjudged matters is thinking that whilst many in the party share that irritation they must surely realise that it is the only game in town. I think he really thought that pretty much all of his colleagues would come to that conclusion, no matter how irritating they find it and he has been caught out by the depth of feeling.
His attempt to claim he had "fixed" the problems with his deal was embarrassing and he rapidly and deftly took steps back from that. It is a footnote in the remain case now and a fairly embarrassing one at that. But his judgement is that we should remain and anyone who thinks that will not be a major factor, quite probably the decisive factor, in this referendum is deluding himself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curragh_incident
People scream for facts but there are precious few. It doesn't mean either side is lying. Politicians will of course take advantage and "actively speculate". Just reading the negotiated text is a huge step forward for understanding. Or a good précis (there are hundreds).
After that it is a gut feel
its not what you say its what you do
When Boris' column in the DT calling the PM's tactics Project Fear made the headlines 3,500 miles away this morning, the trust for the PM even from senior members of his own party has very quickly broken down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12177006/Dont-be-taken-in-by-Project-Fear-staying-in-the-EU-is-the-risky-choice.html