Thanks to Mr. Smithson and Mr. Hopkins for this, and congratulations to Mr. Roger for his tips. Commiserations to me, who intended to run through the markets for long shots and forgot...
Edited extra bit: I know I'm late to the party, but suggest adding a clarification to the Your Party bit. Is that membership, or who you voted for at the last General Election?
The only conclusion is that Cameron's "euroscepticism" was a charade all along, or at least so insubstantial as to be meaningless - and emphasised merely for political expediency.
He wanted to win the election, and that meant retaining Tories flirting with UKIP. It worked - if he hadn't done it, I expect we'd now have Ed in Number 10. Of course he didn't mean he might want to give a real chance of leaving - I told you so at the time, and it was widely reported that he said privately that he'd never recommend leaving. By appearing to open the possibility, he was following the political SOP - "Find out what your potential voters think and pretend to agree with them".
I'm tired of that sort of thing, which is one reason I backed Jeremy, who can't be accused of vacuously adopting whatever line is currently popular. Generally, though, people seem to prefer politicians to bend with the wind just enough to win.
And Project Fear isn't new either. That, too, is SOP at every election, most effectively by the Tory press. When it works, my impression is that you rather like it.
One thing we can now safely say about referendums on sovereignty is that they are intensely divisive, and embittering, and leave bad blood on the carpet long after they are concluded.
It happened in Scotland, and it is now clearly happening in British political circles. From the Tory party all the way down to PB.
The Outers do seem very fractious
I suspect that is because they are finding out, like the Nats, that if you want to win a referendum you need a coherent argument.
You can huff and puff about about freedom and Nationality (Call yourself an Englishman!) but if you want ticks in boxes you need a rational reason to vote that way
And the Outers haven't got it, or anyone who can articulate it, or even agree what it might look like
Both sides are fractious. The Leavers have flimsy hopiness; the Remainders have flimsy feariness. The sum of this Referendum is that all in the political class are looking like right twats.
In that sense, your hope that both sides lose is coming to pass.
Well done to Roger for the Oscars tips, a few winners in there.
Just watched this, John Oliver's 20 minute takedown of Trump from last night, now trending second behind the Oscars. His audience is mostly liberals who would never vote for the guy, but we all know Trump will respond to it in the only way he knows how!
To demand a referendum, to get years' notice that one was on the way and then to have no answers to obvious lines of attack denotes political ineptitude of a different order of magnitude from that we have seen before from an entire political movement.
Well, we have seen it at least once before...
If you're referring to the Scottish independence movement, I disagree. The SNP were coherent. Their problem was plausibility. Leave does not get as far as coherence.
A large number of leavers are quite adamant that it is not their responsibility to say what happens in the event of the vote going their own way. But are vociferous in complaining when the opposite campaign decides to fill the gaps with their own propaganda.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
Bullying is an abuse of power. What else can you call it when the Prime Minister abuses his position of office to tell the people he has won a great victory in our relationship with the EU, when objectively he has no basis to make that claim? And then tells the electorate that the Leave camp would take your first born?
I think he's wrong to think he has won a great victory, but politicians exaggerate their accomplishments all the time, it's up to their opponents to counter it and the public to see the truth, as we have enough dissenting views promoted to come to anotger view. Fearmongering is also a common political tactic, though your specific example is just hysterical.
So no, it's no abuse of office, it's acting like a politician. Both sides will make absurd claims, but the bullying claim is pretty pathetic, and quite clearly will be used as an excuse should Leave lose. I'm not buying what Cameron is selling, I'll be voting for Leave, but in hysteria stakes despite solid effort leave is still way ahead of remain.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
I already said, I want both sides to lose
Best way to achieve that is to vote Leave.
Can you imagine the outcome with say 48/52 in favour of remain on a 60% turnout.
That's as close to both sides losing as you can get
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
I already said, I want both sides to lose
Best way to achieve that is to vote Leave.
Can you imagine the outcome with say 48/52 in favour of remain on a 60% turnout.
That's as close to both sides losing as you can get
With a big Scots/N.Irish Remain majority trumping a very narrow Leave majority in England & Wales.
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
If you're referring to the Scottish independence movement, I disagree. The SNP were coherent. Their problem was plausibility. Leave does not get as far as coherence.
To a degree
On the currency question, you could argue that once they arrived at their implausible position they stuck to it coherently, but Sterling was neither their first choice nor their preferred choice
They flailed around incoherently before settling on their implausible choice
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
I've been lurking for most of the last few days.
I have to admit the Europhiles have been highly amusing in the drivel they've pumped out. I think they're scaring themselves as much as anything else.
They are made of jelly at the best of times Alan, you can hear them baaing a mile away.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
We're being told: "Vote Remain, or else.."
It's the sort of hard sell where the salesman turns up on your doorstep, and holds a revolver to your head as you 'decide'.
It really is not. More like the salesman stands there making increasingly extreme statements about the dangers that are just round the corner, he promises, while you can still clam the door in his face.
People trying to convince us of things, even making dire warnings about choosing other options, is not bullying. If it's true various politicians had careers threatened and the like, that could be called bullying. The PM on the news saying, incorrectly, he has won a good deal and the other side are fools, is not like having a gun held to our heads.
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
Like
Aw, love you too.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
Thanks to Mr. Smithson and Mr. Hopkins for this, and congratulations to Mr. Roger for his tips. Commiserations to me, who intended to run through the markets for long shots and forgot...
Edited extra bit: I know I'm late to the party, but suggest adding a clarification to the Your Party bit. Is that membership, or who you voted for at the last General Election?
It's meant as the party you would normally support.
The best simile is that the referendum is a chance for a divorce. Have you an abusive partner? If you went to marriage guidance counselling, would things change?
The answer to the first depends on personal opinions, the answer to the second is definitely ... no.
Project Fear says 'if you divorce, you'll be all on your own', and if things change after a Remain vote, it will be only be for more of the same.
I've voted for Remain to win. Nursey's hand is the easy way.
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
@politicshome: Chris Grayling dismisses claim of ten-year wait to sort trade deal: "It will be quick enough to ensure there isn’t a hiatus in trading."
In years to come, old men will whisper in awed voices of the unparalleled skill and beauty of the Barcelona football team of our generation. In the same way, they will speak in hushed tones of the incompetence of the Leave campaign of 2016.
The unpreparedness of the Leave side is extraordinary. To demand a referendum, to get years' notice that one was on the way and then to have no answers to obvious lines of attack denotes political ineptitude of a different order of magnitude from that we have seen before from an entire political movement.
Make your prediction competition estimates accordingly.
They maybe believed all their attacks that cast iron Dave would never deliver a referendum and indeed weren't expecting him to be in a position to deliver one either... another result of last year's pleasant surprise in May.
1) The Sunday Times story about the Tory right trying to depose Cameron post referendum has swung three of my Eurosceptic friends back to remain. They don't think the Tory Euroloons will try if Remain gets 60% plus.
2) IDS' performance yesterday and his specific comments on free movement/access to the single market had pushed a few reluctant Leavers back to Remain has pushed a few people industry back to Remain
So talk of toppling Dave and economic uncertainty aren't helping Leave.
The only conclusion is that Cameron's "euroscepticism" was a charade all along, or at least so insubstantial as to be meaningless - and emphasised merely for political expediency.
He wanted to win the election, and that meant retaining Tories flirting with UKIP. It worked - if he hadn't done it, I expect we'd now have Ed in Number 10. Of course he didn't mean he might want to give a real chance of leaving - I told you so at the time, and it was widely reported that he said privately that he'd never recommend leaving. By appearing to open the possibility, he was following the political SOP - "Find out what your potential voters think and pretend to agree with them".
I'm tired of that sort of thing, which is one reason I backed Jeremy, who can't be accused of vacuously adopting whatever line is currently popular. Generally, though, people seem to prefer politicians to bend with the wind just enough to win.
And Project Fear isn't new either. That, too, is SOP at every election, most effectively by the Tory press. When it works, my impression is that you rather like it.
Cameron's position was always completely clear to anyone who cared to examine it. The referendum pledge was about internal management and was designed to get the Tories past the last GE, nothing more.
And you are right about Jezza. He has been opposed to anything done by the US, the UK and Israel for the last 35 years, and continues to be so. If that means sharing platforms with and/or supporting avowedly anti-western, anti-democratic, crypto-fascist, illiberal organisations that advocate the killing of British soldiers, the execution of homosexuals, the illegal annexation of land and the subjugation of women, so be it. I am sure he is delighted that you now support him.
Unlike Sean and others, I don't mind the fearmongering about plagues of locusts. Its ridiculous but theres nothing unfair about it. What I object to is the fixed playing field. After Cameron backed down on purdah, he is now using the taxes of all of us to fund one side of the campaign, while not even allowing ministers on the other side free access to their own departments. Then there was the gagging and threats. The man can't stomach a fair fight.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
Bullying is an abuse of power. What else can you call it when the Prime Minister abuses his position of office to tell the people he has won a great victory in our relationship with the EU, when objectively he has no basis to make that claim? And then tells the electorate that the Leave camp would take your first born?
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
I already said, I want both sides to lose
Best way to achieve that is to vote Leave.
Can you imagine the outcome with say 48/52 in favour of remain on a 60% turnout.
That's as close to both sides losing as you can get
Well, not sure what that is now. I'll be voting for Andrea Jenkyns again, but that's because she's a sceptic. At the locals/euros, I don't know. Likely UKIP for the European election, and maybe a local party at the, er, locals.
So far today, two "prominent" Outers on national media
@PaulBrandITV: Lord Howard tells @GMB he still thinks there could be 2nd EU ref: "If we vote to leave there's a chance they may come back with a 2nd deal"
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
Canada and South Korea have never been a part of a multi-national free movement agreement, so have never been in a position where they have had to ask anyone they are negotiating with to give that up. Migration Watch is not a disinterested observer and has not explained on what basis this 100,000 figure would be achieved. It certainly would not be if we were part of the EEA.
@politicshome: Chris Grayling dismisses claim of ten-year wait to sort trade deal: "It will be quick enough to ensure there isn’t a hiatus in trading."
...and UNICORNS for EVERYBODY!
We already got the unicorns with Cameron's deal. Didn't you hear him in parliament??
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
Like
Aw, love you too.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
I think your next thread should be based on this post.
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
Like
Aw, love you too.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
stupid statement of your two bugbears - one is married to a German the other shacked up with a Palestinian.
from memory arent you the one living with the white brit ?
oH dear can.t read a simple survey Thought I was answering Remain and Leave %. Can't edit it either.!! I see quite a few others whose numbers add up to exactly 100% presumably they made the same mistake.
Unlike Sean and others, I don't mind the fearmongering about plagues of locusts. Its ridiculous but theres nothing unfair about it. What I object to is the fixed playing field. After Cameron backed down on purdah, he is now using the taxes of all of us to fund one side of the campaign, while not even allowing ministers on the other side free access to their own departments. Then there was the gagging and threats. The man can't stomach a fair fight.
I wonder if the fear mongering is subject to a law of diminishing returns, and had better be kept until nearer the date of the vote. Otherwise, I think people may just end up ignoring it, or even laughing at it.
Other than that, I'm quite relaxed. The last few weeks have been pretty good for Leave.
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
Canada and South Korea have never been a part of a multi-national free movement agreement, so have never been in a position where they have had to ask anyone they are negotiating with to give that up. Migration Watch is not a disinterested observer and has not explained on what basis this 100,000 figure would be achieved. It certainly would not be if we were part of the EEA.
Canada has very much been part of a multinational free movement agreement. It was called the Commonwealth. They migrated from that to just free trade between them and UK.
As fr MigrationWatch, their only interest is to reduce immigration, so its an interest that enhances their credibility.
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
We're being told: "Vote Remain, or else.."
It's the sort of hard sell where the salesman turns up on your doorstep, and holds a revolver to your head as you 'decide'.
It really is not. More like the salesman stands there making increasingly extreme statements about the dangers that are just round the corner, he promises, while you can still clam the door in his face.
People trying to convince us of things, even making dire warnings about choosing other options, is not bullying. If it's true various politicians had careers threatened and the like, that could be called bullying. The PM on the news saying, incorrectly, he has won a good deal and the other side are fools, is not like having a gun held to our heads.
There have been clear and specific threats against Brexit ministers by the government. Gove has been promised the sack, post referendum. In today's Guardian, Cameroon-europhile d'Ancona says there must be a "purge" after REMAIN wins.
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I kn insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
Like
Aw, love you too.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
I think your next thread should be based on this post.
Will be a real pleasure to publish it.
I think he's trying to troll but it ain't working because its so ridiculous. I ain't seen single forum member say something xenophobic in support of Leave.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
We're being told: "Vote Remain, or else.."
It's the sort of hard sell where the salesman turns up on your doorstep, and holds a revolver to your head as you 'decide'.
It really is not. More like the salesman stands there making increasingly extreme statements about the dangers that are just round the corner, he promises, while you can still clam the door in his face.
People trying to convince us of things, even making dire warnings about choosing other options, is not bullying. If it's true various politicians had careers threatened and the like, that could be called bullying. The PM on the news saying, incorrectly, he has won a good deal and the other side are fools, is not like having a gun held to our heads.
There have been clear and specific threats against Brexit ministers by the government. Gove has been promised the sack, post referendum. In today's Guardian, Cameroon-europhile d'Ancona says there must be a "purge" after REMAIN wins.
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
Canada and South Korea have never been a part of a multi-national free movement agreement, so have never been in a position where they have had to ask anyone they are negotiating with to give that up. Migration Watch is not a disinterested observer and has not explained on what basis this 100,000 figure would be achieved. It certainly would not be if we were part of the EEA.
Canada has very much been part of a multinational free movement agreement. It was called the Commonwealth. They migrated from that to just free trade between them and UK.
As fr MigrationWatch, their only interest is to reduce immigration, so its an interest that enhances their credibility.
Canada was not negotiating with every single Commonwealth country. Before a Brexit deal is signed it has to be agreed by every EU member state.
"Net migration could fall by about 100,000 a year if the UK leaves the EU and introduces work permits for EU citizens, a pressure group has said."
I think he's trying to troll but it ain't working because its so ridiculous. I ain't seen single forum member say something xenophobic in support of Leave.
Really? I have. I've even seen people approvingly quote Enoch Powell.
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
Was that a Vote Leave stand or a Leave.EU or a Grassroots out stand ? Or none of the above.
I do have a slight doubt about voting LEAVE. This article from Charlotte Leslie MP is good. "So the choice seems to be this: do we hang on in there on the back seat of the EU minibus, careering towards the burning building that is the EU dream, all the while screaming for the driver to change direction in the hope that he will finally listen and change course? " "Or do we jump, knowing that without our voice, the driving may get worse, the landing could break our bones (and the driver might deliberately exacerbate the pain of our landing) – and then we might well get burnt to a cinder anyway when the bus hits the building and explodes? "
The challenge for me is how to get the EU to reform into a viable entity. We have tried for more than 20 years to get it to reform into a better system and as time has gone on it has just got worse. In its present construction and following Cameron's renegotiations it looks incapable of real reform. Most of its Leaders lack the drive to tackle its big problems and just want deeper integration. That is why I favour LEAVE. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176875/In-or-Out-of-the-EU-Im-proud-that-I-dont-know-yet.html
Just heard Chris Grayling unable to explain what our new trading arrangements would be if we left the EU other than to say we buy a 'lot of stuff' from the French and their farmers are a feisty bunch so don't tell me they won't work out some sort of a trading agreement with us....and the Germans too with their cars....
It's not that he didn't know that bothers me it's that it all sounded so Heath Robinson. I know the British like a gung ho spirit but it just felt too 2nd World War...
Being an activist for any party means believing six impossible things before breakfast every day, and always has done.
Jezza 's good points are as Nick describes. He believes what he says and he says what he believes, and he's been saying it for half a century despite all the evidence against. The old joke about the man in the lunatic asylum who believes he's Napoleon is another example.
Cameron being honest about Europe is another. Being a good politician means saying what you need to say to achieve your aims. Most people only get vague impressions so you can get away with it.
I remember a disastrous Francis Pym interview where he was virtually reduced to drooling. Afterwards, he was reported as saying he had lost the election for the Tories. No, Francis, you were sh*te, but committed Labour voters would say that anyway. If jezza had done the same, committed Tory voters would have said the same. The non-committed weren't watching.
What was important was that the BBC didn't show it every ten minutes on I-player in those days.
The media is the decision maker but only in a tight contest.
I will vote Leave only because we should vote for our own lunatics and not have them thrust upon us.
I actually really dislike the idea we are being bullied by any side. We're being given a hard sell, calling it bullying is making ourselves victims.
We're being told: "Vote Remain, or else.."
It's the sort of hard sell where the salesman turns up on your doorstep, and holds a revolver to your head as you 'decide'.
It really is not. More like the salesman stands there making increasingly extreme statements about the dangers that are just round the corner, he promises, while you can still clam the door in his face.
People trying to convince us of things, even making dire warnings about choosing other options, is not bullying. If it's true various politicians had careers threatened and the like, that could be called bullying. The PM on the news saying, incorrectly, he has won a good deal and the other side are fools, is not like having a gun held to our heads.
There have been clear and specific threats against Brexit ministers by the government. Gove has been promised the sack, post referendum. In today's Guardian, Cameroon-europhile d'Ancona says there must be a "purge" after REMAIN wins.
A "purge"?? Calling that bullying is probably an understatement.
If d'Ancona was the PM rather than a talking head mouthing off as he's paid to do then yes.
People have said that Cameron and Osborne will get the boot afterwards too. Is that bullying?
No. It's people attempting to read the runes on a political betting site....
No different to d'Ancona then. Oh and it's not just people here but equivalent commentators and even MPs who've said that. So what goes around comes around but it isn't bullying.
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
Good anecdotes, especially the one about more DKs than the politically engaged probably realise at this stage. There will be a lot of people to whom the issue won't have registered yet, and probably won't until the short campaign is underway.
A funny take on the referendum aiming at a relatively uninformed audience: Will leaving the EU be like Robbie Williams leaving Take That, or Geri Halliwell leaving the Spice Girls! https://youtu.be/-rr1le-EjCs
I heard from two friends last night, both life-long eurosceptics, who are now "on the fence". One is a partner in a law firm, the other an international security risk consultant.
A third, who's voted UKIP in the past, was going to vote Leave, but has changed his mind off the back of Cameron's deal. He works as a senior statistician in a major pharmaceutical company.
All are AB professionals, all graduates, all homeowners, and all live in the south-east.
I am following up with each of them, but Leave really should have all their votes in the bag.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I kn insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
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My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
I think your next thread should be based on this post.
Will be a real pleasure to publish it.
I think he's trying to troll but it ain't working because its so ridiculous. I ain't seen single forum member say something xenophobic in support of Leave.
Obviously, some people who vote Leave will be motivated by dislike of foreigners. In the same way that some people who vote Remain will be motivated by dislike of their own country. It doesn't mean that most people on either side have base motives.
Just heard Chris Grayling unable to explain what our new trading arrangements would be if we left the EU other than to say we buy a 'lot of stuff' from the French and their farmers are a feisty bunch so don't tell me they won't work out some sort of a trading agreement with us....and the Germans too with their cars....
It's not that he didn't know that bothers me it all sounded so Heath Robinson. I know the British like a gung ho spirit but it just felt so 2nd World War...
Changes will take negotiations. No shit sherlock.
Unless you think we should never change anything how is that News? Never changing anything isn't positive, it is sclerotic.
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
Was that a Vote Leave stand or a Leave.EU or a Grassroots out stand ? Or none of the above.
I think it was a Vote Leave/GO stand. But at local level, we work together, apparently.
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
Was that a Vote Leave stand or a Leave.EU or a Grassroots out stand ? Or none of the above.
I think it was a Vote Leave/GO stand. But at local level, we work together, apparently.
Isn't Daniel Hannan supposed to be Brexit's intellectual?
Morning all,
Leavers have been banging on about a referendum for years. Now they finally have one all they can do is belly ache that the Remain side is using fear and doubt as a tactic. What on earth did they expect?
Just heard Chris Grayling unable to explain what our new trading arrangements would be if we left the EU other than to say we buy a 'lot of stuff' from the French and their farmers are a feisty bunch so don't tell me they won't work out some sort of a trading agreement with us....and the Germans too with their cars....
It's not that he didn't know that bothers me it all sounded so Heath Robinson. I know the British like a gung ho spirit but it just felt so 2nd World War...
Of course, the practical effect of not agreeing a deal with the Germans and the French would be potentially to make their imports more expensive to buy for British consumers, so reducing choice. If BMWs, Volkswagens, FIATs, SEATs, Peugeots, Citroens, Ladas etc go up in price, that increases demand for cars imported in from elsewhere or manufactured in the UK. What is the obvious supplier reaction to increased demand and less competition? It is not to reduce prices.
French agricultural products? The premium ones - Champagne, other wines, cheeses and so on - can only be obtained from France. So that just means higher prices for them. As it does for similar types of product from elsewhere in the EU.
Then there is the specialist stuff that we import and which is hard to source from elsewhere. That is still going to come from the EU, but will just be more expensive.
Two questions the EU member states will be asking themselves during a negotiation are: how much of our current exports to the UK can we bank whatever happens?; and, for the rest, how willing is the British government to inflict higher prices and reduced competition on British consumers in order to drive a deal.
None of this is brain surgery.
The fact is that we only get a Brexit deal once it has been negotiated. And the negotiation is not a one way street. What Leave needs to tell us is which of the freedoms we currently enjoy are we going to have to give up to get what we want.
Of course, if we just join the EEA none of this will be much of an issue. But neither will we be in a position to reduce immigration from the EU in any meaningful way.
Matthew Parris in the Times also promised a "purge" of eurosceptics after the vote. So that's two of the most senior Tory journalists in the country using exactly the same word. And not just any old word. PURGE.
If you can't see an agenda here you're a half wit. The Cameroons are trying to frighten and bully the waverers towards REMAIN, just as they are trying to frighten and bully the voters in the same direction.
Two journalists who've possibly talked to each other used the same word, it must be a conspiracy!
Again what did you expect? The EXACT same thing has happened in reverse on the other side too. Did you expect a one way Street? Would you only be satisfied if Remain rolled over and played dead. As no doubt Cameron and Osborne's careers are dead after this as it's OK for Leave commentators to say that but if Remain commentators say the same it is bullying.
I would urge them to stop taking about theoretical rubbish like sovereignty and start talking about practical realities. So, for example, if we come out of the EU we come out of CAP. Who on earth wants to defend the CAP? We need to explain how the £2.5bn could be better spent giving us a better environment and cheaper food. We need to explain what we could do if we once again controlled our own fisheries and help our coastal towns who have suffered so badly. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK. We need to be clear that we recognise the importance of the Single Market and accept that that imposes some limitations on what we can do even outside the EU. We need to explain how EFTA and the EEA work together where that is in their interests and that we would too. This is not goodbye but a different relationship
I was on a Leave stand in Cambridge Market Square in the middle of Saturday.
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
Good anecdotes, especially the one about more DKs than the politically engaged probably realise at this stage. There will be a lot of people to whom the issue won't have registered yet, and probably won't until the short campaign is underway.
A funny take on the referendum aiming at a relatively uninformed audience: Will leaving the EU be like Robbie Williams leaving Take That, or Geri Halliwell leaving the Spice Girls! https://youtu.be/-rr1le-EjCs
It seems likely to me that the DK segment will actually grow in size during the course of the campaign as the counter arguments tear across the airways. Maybe a lot of people will decide in the final days.
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
Canada and South Korea have never been a part of a multi-national free movement agreement, so have never been in a position where they have had to ask anyone they are negotiating with to give that up. Migration Watch is not a disinterested observer and has not explained on what basis this 100,000 figure would be achieved. It certainly would not be if we were part of the EEA.
Canada has very much been part of a multinational free movement agreement. It was called the Commonwealth. They migrated from that to just free trade between them and UK.
As fr MigrationWatch, their only interest is to reduce immigration, so its an interest that enhances their credibility.
I'm not sure Commonwealth guaranteed freedom of movement, did it? I mean it did for us Brits, but other than that, it was pretty patchy.
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Is this another case of the lesser-spotted (on PB; it's common on CiF) phenomenon of only "we" being able to understand the nuances of the debate, while everyone else is a project Fear victim?
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
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My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
Alastair, I am not that bothered either way , just nice to see unionists fighting like ferrets in a sack. Also to see them being taken in by the same garbage as the Scottish referendum. Remain will win because those with money and vested interests will scare enough of the sheeple that they will lose a fiver a week if leave and the greedy halfwits will vote remain. I am for Leave purely for the following reasons I will not support that bawfaced lying toerag and his imaginary deal. If Scottp is for it then it has to be crap decision
Agreed. It's clearly working. In effect the British people are being bullied, if not terrorised, into voting REMAIN, by the elite. It's an odious spectacle. As I've said before, post-referendum the emotional backlash - and the recriminations in the Tory party - will be intense. The europhiles will get their victory, but they will be made to suffer afterwards, as happened in Scotland.
Give over.
No. I'm a project fear victim. I readily admit it. Some of these dire predictions are making me haver.
I know that most of the REMAINIAN propaganda is total bullshit. I now know that Cameron is a cockroach and a liar. I despise the europhiles and their horrible fat faces.
Yet I am a father and part of me is thinking, what if just one of these lying predictions is actually true, can I take that risk for my daughter?
It's a natural human reaction. And if I'm thinking it, many others must be thinking it, too.
Really call yourself and Englishman.
God gave you two fingers and the expression Fuck em for a reason
I know, I know.
On the other hand, at least I am honest. Which cannot be said for most of the scuttling, europhile insect life on here, from Scott P to Nabavi to Meeks.
Like
Aw, love you too.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
stupid statement of your two bugbears - one is married to a German the other shacked up with a Palestinian.
from memory arent you the one living with the white brit ?
You are on form today Alan, these boys just keep putting their foot in their mouth.
oH dear can.t read a simple survey Thought I was answering Remain and Leave %. Can't edit it either.!! I see quite a few others whose numbers add up to exactly 100% presumably they made the same mistake.
If you make a mistake, enter again with the same name/email and I'll remove the first.
For Casino_Royale on what Leave needs to do. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK.
There is an anecdotal assumption by many on the left that workers' rights will be severely curtailed if we leave the EU. This is an area LEAVE needs to address to try and get more of the tribal Labour and rump Lib Dem (which is still ~ 35% of the voting electorate) onboard.
I believe Remain will win by around 52/48 and that's when the problems will start.
The first occasion the EU work against us, say by increasing our contribution, demanding we help bail out another Eurozone member or whatever, then the country will be up in arms. Cameron, Osborne and the rest will be seen as the snivelling, lying bullies that they are, and the next referendum won't take 40 years, more like four.
Roger, you are an absolute beauty! Just checked my Betfair account following your Oscars thread. I had a couple of quid on each of your tips that were above evens. Ex Machina for visual effects came in at 41/1 Mark Rylance for Supporting actor paid a very nice 7/2 Thank you very much.
Matthew Parris in the Times also promised a "purge" of eurosceptics after the vote. So that's two of the most senior Tory journalists in the country using exactly the same word. And not just any old word. PURGE.
If you can't see an agenda here you're a half wit. The Cameroons are trying to frighten and bully the waverers towards REMAIN, just as they are trying to frighten and bully the voters in the same direction.
Two journalists who've possibly talked to each other used the same word, it must be a conspiracy!
Again what did you expect? The EXACT same thing has happened in reverse on the other side too. Did you expect a one way Street? Would you only be satisfied if Remain rolled over and played dead. As no doubt Cameron and Osborne's careers are dead after this as it's OK for Leave commentators to say that but if Remain commentators say the same it is bullying.
Hypocrite.
Dullard
Only one side has real power. Remain. Because the Remain side is the PM, the government and the Establishment. You can only bully someone if you are in a position of power over them. As Cameron is, over the rest of us.
Leavers can threaten to revolt, but Cameron can simply sack people. He has the power. He is the bully. He's a creep and there's an end to it.
The voters are the ultimate bullies. Look how they shafted Labour and the Lib Dems last May.
Come "Referendum Day" the power lies with us. It is the ultimate weapon of the common man in democracies.
I know some of the entries may have mistakenly entered Remain for Turnout, but even so I'm surprised to see the average turnout predicted to be 61.5%. I really think it could be over 70%.
I know some of the entries may have mistakenly entered Remain for Turnout, but even so I'm surprised to see the average turnout predicted to be 61.5%. I really think it could be over 70%.
Really ?
If that is the case it will be an overwhelming REMAIN victory I think.
Matthew Parris in the Times also promised a "purge" of eurosceptics after the vote.
Not exactly.
He said whichever side wins the losers needs to know they lost
I think GO will discover he has lost a few friends come budget time - he's in for a difficult time as his deficit delay goes on and on and on...
Agreed, there's not much appetite for tax rises within his party without some serious accompanying spending cuts - think closing/merging whole departments rather than the tinkering around the edges which has gone on so far.
I would urge them to stop taking about theoretical rubbish like sovereignty and start talking about practical realities. So, for example, if we come out of the EU we come out of CAP. Who on earth wants to defend the CAP? We need to explain how the £2.5bn could be better spent giving us a better environment and cheaper food. We need to explain what we could do if we once again controlled our own fisheries and help our coastal towns who have suffered so badly. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK. We need to be clear that we recognise the importance of the Single Market and accept that that imposes some limitations on what we can do even outside the EU. We need to explain how EFTA and the EEA work together where that is in their interests and that we would too. This is not goodbye but a different relationship
If we vote to leave we will negotiate a new deal with the EU well in advance of the next election. That will tie us just as much as our current membership does. The idea that we will just be able to change governments and so change the terms of our relationship with the EU is fanciful. The EU would first have to agree.
For Casino_Royale on what Leave needs to do. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK.
There is an anecdotal assumption by many on the left that workers' rights will be severely curtailed if we leave the EU. This is an area LEAVE needs to address to try and get more of the tribal Labour and rump Lib Dem (which is still ~ 35% of the voting electorate) onboard.
The argument is fundamentally undemocratic. It is that there is a risk that if these matters were determined in the UK those nasty Tories may well take those rights away. If they are determined by people we do not elect and cannot throw out of office they are safe.
How do you address this without a snort of disgust? I am really not sure. Pointing out that Tories who, for example, reduced maternity rights would probably not get re-elected is unlikely to do it.
I know some of the entries may have mistakenly entered Remain for Turnout, but even so I'm surprised to see the average turnout predicted to be 61.5%. I really think it could be over 70%.
Really ?
If that is the case it will be an overwhelming REMAIN victory I think.
Daniel Hodson is someone I know well (former CEO of LIFFE and deputy CEO of Nationwide) and who I have a lot of time for. He's also chairman of city for Britain, so obviously on the leave side
For Casino_Royale on what Leave needs to do. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK.
There is an anecdotal assumption by many on the left that workers' rights will be severely curtailed if we leave the EU. This is an area LEAVE needs to address to try and get more of the tribal Labour and rump Lib Dem (which is still ~ 35% of the voting electorate) onboard.
The argument is fundamentally undemocratic. It is that there is a risk that if these matters were determined in the UK those nasty Tories may well take those rights away. If they are determined by people we do not elect and cannot throw out of office they are safe.
How do you address this without a snort of disgust? I am really not sure. Pointing out that Tories who, for example, reduced maternity rights would probably not get re-elected is unlikely to do it.
There is nothing anti-democratic about pointing out that the Tories and Labour can get an overall majority on 37% of the vote and can introduce policies that the majority are opposed to.
I would urge them to stop taking about theoretical rubbish like sovereignty and start talking about practical realities. So, for example, if we come out of the EU we come out of CAP. Who on earth wants to defend the CAP? We need to explain how the £2.5bn could be better spent giving us a better environment and cheaper food. We need to explain what we could do if we once again controlled our own fisheries and help our coastal towns who have suffered so badly. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK. We need to be clear that we recognise the importance of the Single Market and accept that that imposes some limitations on what we can do even outside the EU. We need to explain how EFTA and the EEA work together where that is in their interests and that we would too. This is not goodbye but a different relationship
If we vote to leave we will negotiate a new deal with the EU well in advance of the next election. That will tie us just as much as our current membership does. The idea that we will just be able to change governments and so change the terms of our relationship with the EU is fanciful. The EU would first have to agree.
Our new agreement with the EU would cover the Single Market, the 4 freedoms related to that, possibly our terms of trade with third parties that we wanted to sign up to but it would not cover any of the points I have mentioned in any detail and control of these matters would return to the UK.
Of course the agreements on the Single Market might impose some restrictions on farming support because they would otherwise have an unfair competitive advantage within that single market. Leaving the CFP does not mean our part of the north sea will suddenly be teeming with cod again. There may well be common sense in coordinating our conservation measures with others in the north sea.
But these are then matters for negotiation and agreement. We are no longer bound by QMV rules of a club we are no longer members of. That is really the point.
Matthew Parris in the Times also promised a "purge" of eurosceptics after the vote. So that's two of the most senior Tory journalists in the country using exactly the same word. And not just any old word. PURGE.
If you can't see an agenda here you're a half wit. The Cameroons are trying to frighten and bully the waverers towards REMAIN, just as they are trying to frighten and bully the voters in the same direction.
Two journalists who've possibly talked to each other used the same word, it must be a conspiracy!
Again what did you expect? The EXACT same thing has happened in reverse on the other side too. Did you expect a one way Street? Would you only be satisfied if Remain rolled over and played dead. As no doubt Cameron and Osborne's careers are dead after this as it's OK for Leave commentators to say that but if Remain commentators say the same it is bullying.
Hypocrite.
Dullard
Only one side has real power. Remain. Because the Remain side is the PM, the government and the Establishment. You can only bully someone if you are in a position of power over them. As Cameron is, over the rest of us.
Leavers can threaten to revolt, but Cameron can simply sack people. He has the power. He is the bully. He's a creep and there's an end to it.
Cameron can sack members of his Cabinet. Over the rest of us he has no such power. He can't sack, assault, humiliate - or bully - the voters. He can try his hardest to persuade and manipulate them, which he is.
@DavidL "Leave" has a real problem on these issues. For instance if David Cameron was advocating "Leave" he would reassure farmers that they would not suffer if we left the CAP, could say no worker's rights will be reduced etc etc Of course the long term view of future Gov'ts is unknown on these issues so all promises are in effect worthless come say 2035 when we've been out the EU and have gone through a few Gov't cycles... But people generally don't look beyond 5 years anyhow.
As is he is going to make no such promises - he is the Remainer in chief ! It's a tricky one for "Leave" as I say.
I believe Remain will win by around 52/48 and that's when the problems will start.
The first occasion the EU work against us, say by increasing our contribution, demanding we help bail out another Eurozone member or whatever, then the country will be up in arms. Cameron, Osborne and the rest will be seen as the snivelling, lying bullies that they are, and the next referendum won't take 40 years, more like four.
I believe we will be out by 2022 come what may.
Yes, exactly. As soon as the "deal" is proved to be worthless, and a con - which it will, in fairly short order - the anger will be intense, within and without the Tory party (but, especially, within). Portraits of Cameron will be used as dartboards. Osborne will be continuously pelted with enormous cowpats in the Commons. By his own MPs. Etc.
Who knows where the Tories will go then.
It's possible we might end up leaving the EU without a referendum. The eurozone will federalise soon. This will require a big new treaty. We will vote down a treaty. Thus the UK leaves by default.
The problem for the Tories is they are increasingly creating a group of voters for whom they deliver nothing. So what's the point ?
There's only so long people can scream Jezza the Bogeyman and if he goes then what. A realignment on the right isn't unthinkable.
I believe Remain will win by around 52/48 and that's when the problems will start.
The first occasion the EU work against us, say by increasing our contribution, demanding we help bail out another Eurozone member or whatever, then the country will be up in arms. Cameron, Osborne and the rest will be seen as the snivelling, lying bullies that they are, and the next referendum won't take 40 years, more like four.
I believe we will be out by 2022 come what may.
Yes, exactly. As soon as the "deal" is proved to be worthless, and a con - which it will, in fairly short order - the anger will be intense, within and without the Tory party (but, especially, within). Portraits of Cameron will be used as dartboards. Osborne will be continuously pelted with enormous cowpats in the Commons. By his own MPs. Etc.
Who knows where the Tories will go then.
It's possible we might end up leaving the EU without a referendum. The eurozone will federalise soon. This will require a big new treaty. We will vote down a treaty. Thus the UK leaves by default.
So, both of you Leavers think Remain will win by 4% or so, but that won't make you give up. How big a Remain win will it take for you to accept it as the democratic will of the people?
Boris is playing exactly the same game as Dave by pretending that we are going to get meaningful reforms on free movement in any agreement we reach with the EU should there be a Leave vote.
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
Except Canada and South Korea have it, and MigrationWatch have estimated immigration would drop by 100,000 if we left. So your charge of dishonesty is very weak. Unlike Cameron who told such an outright lie even Richard Nabavi accepts its untrue.
Canada and South Korea have never been a part of a multi-national free movement agreement, so have never been in a position where they have had to ask anyone they are negotiating with to give that up. Migration Watch is not a disinterested observer and has not explained on what basis this 100,000 figure would be achieved. It certainly would not be if we were part of the EEA.
Canada has very much been part of a multinational free movement agreement. It was called the Commonwealth. They migrated from that to just free trade between them and UK.
As fr MigrationWatch, their only interest is to reduce immigration, so its an interest that enhances their credibility.
I'm not sure Commonwealth guaranteed freedom of movement, did it? I mean it did for us Brits, but other than that, it was pretty patchy.
I'm pretty sure my grandparents didn't need a visa to come here from Jamaica.
The fact is that we only get a Brexit deal once it has been negotiated. And the negotiation is not a one way street. What Leave needs to tell us is which of the freedoms we currently enjoy are we going to have to give up to get what we want.
Of course, if we just join the EEA none of this will be much of an issue. But neither will we be in a position to reduce immigration from the EU in any meaningful way.
Once we vote to leave we are not negotiating from the status quo ante.
Once we vote to leave, if there is no agreement, then they lose preferred access to the UK market. So, overall, the deal has to be acceptable to both sides - which will not be the case if it is worse than the current one for the UK
I would urge them to stop taking about theoretical rubbish like sovereignty and start talking about practical realities. So, for example, if we come out of the EU we come out of CAP. Who on earth wants to defend the CAP? We need to explain how the £2.5bn could be better spent giving us a better environment and cheaper food. We need to explain what we could do if we once again controlled our own fisheries and help our coastal towns who have suffered so badly. We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK. We need to be clear that we recognise the importance of the Single Market and accept that that imposes some limitations on what we can do even outside the EU. We need to explain how EFTA and the EEA work together where that is in their interests and that we would too. This is not goodbye but a different relationship
Thanks David. Good advice.
My letter went off to Dan Hannan at the weekend. It said pretty much exactly that.
I will also be emailing Matthew Elliot today, so will double-check I've got all your points properly covered before I send that off too.
So, both of you Leavers think Remain will win by 4% or so, but that won't make you give up. How big a Remain win will it take for you to accept it as the democratic will of the people?
@ScottyNational: EU : Nicola Sturgeon states she wants overwhelming win to stay in. '55% or above should settle it you would hope...'
Comments
Thanks to Mr. Smithson and Mr. Hopkins for this, and congratulations to Mr. Roger for his tips. Commiserations to me, who intended to run through the markets for long shots and forgot...
Edited extra bit: I know I'm late to the party, but suggest adding a clarification to the Your Party bit. Is that membership, or who you voted for at the last General Election?
I'm tired of that sort of thing, which is one reason I backed Jeremy, who can't be accused of vacuously adopting whatever line is currently popular. Generally, though, people seem to prefer politicians to bend with the wind just enough to win.
And Project Fear isn't new either. That, too, is SOP at every election, most effectively by the Tory press. When it works, my impression is that you rather like it.
In that sense, your hope that both sides lose is coming to pass.
Be strong, be brave, and say it proudly ... I'm a Remainer. It's not a sin, you know.
For the avoidance of doubt, I'm talking about the EU referendum.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain?src=tren
Link above should give the flavour of it, makes the point very well about American comedians being better at journalism than American journalists.
Jon Stewart must be wondering why he hung up his microphone, watching all this from afar.
So no, it's no abuse of office, it's acting like a politician. Both sides will make absurd claims, but the bullying claim is pretty pathetic, and quite clearly will be used as an excuse should Leave lose. I'm not buying what Cameron is selling, I'll be voting for Leave, but in hysteria stakes despite solid effort leave is still way ahead of remain.
A good day to all.
It's the sort of hard sell where the salesman turns up on your doorstep, and holds a revolver to your head as you 'decide'.
Can you imagine the outcome with say 48/52 in favour of remain on a 60% turnout.
That's as close to both sides losing as you can get
At least one of them is going to be hated whatever the result. Dave or Boris is set to become the Right's Blair - despised by his own side for the betrayals he will have committed.
On the currency question, you could argue that once they arrived at their implausible position they stuck to it coherently, but Sterling was neither their first choice nor their preferred choice
They flailed around incoherently before settling on their implausible choice
People trying to convince us of things, even making dire warnings about choosing other options, is not bullying. If it's true various politicians had careers threatened and the like, that could be called bullying. The PM on the news saying, incorrectly, he has won a good deal and the other side are fools, is not like having a gun held to our heads.
My reason for deciding for now to vote Remain is largely because the bulk of the Leavers are monomaniacs trading off an irrational dislike of foreigners.
I can see why that would appeal to Scottish Nationalists though.
It's meant as the party you would normally support.
The answer to the first depends on personal opinions, the answer to the second is definitely ... no.
Project Fear says 'if you divorce, you'll be all on your own', and if things change after a Remain vote, it will be only be for more of the same.
I've voted for Remain to win. Nursey's hand is the easy way.
...and UNICORNS for EVERYBODY!
It may also be true that Dave wasn't either...
1) The Sunday Times story about the Tory right trying to depose Cameron post referendum has swung three of my Eurosceptic friends back to remain. They don't think the Tory Euroloons will try if Remain gets 60% plus.
2) IDS' performance yesterday and his specific comments on free movement/access to the single market had pushed a few reluctant Leavers back to Remain has pushed a few people industry back to Remain
So talk of toppling Dave and economic uncertainty aren't helping Leave.
And you are right about Jezza. He has been opposed to anything done by the US, the UK and Israel for the last 35 years, and continues to be so. If that means sharing platforms with and/or supporting avowedly anti-western, anti-democratic, crypto-fascist, illiberal organisations that advocate the killing of British soldiers, the execution of homosexuals, the illegal annexation of land and the subjugation of women, so be it. I am sure he is delighted that you now support him.
Well, not sure what that is now. I'll be voting for Andrea Jenkyns again, but that's because she's a sceptic. At the locals/euros, I don't know. Likely UKIP for the European election, and maybe a local party at the, er, locals.
@PaulBrandITV: Lord Howard tells @GMB he still thinks there could be 2nd EU ref: "If we vote to leave there's a chance they may come back with a 2nd deal"
@BBCNormanS: Brexit wd be "relatively quick" says Chris Grayling @BBCr4today
Coherence - null points...
Will be a real pleasure to publish it.
of your two bugbears - one is married to a German the other shacked up with a Palestinian.
from memory arent you the one living with the white brit ?
I see quite a few others whose numbers add up to exactly 100% presumably they made the same mistake.
Other than that, I'm quite relaxed. The last few weeks have been pretty good for Leave.
As fr MigrationWatch, their only interest is to reduce immigration, so its an interest that enhances their credibility.
I wonder if any will wave back?
So, anecdote alert.
I enjoyed it, and I'll do some more. Whether it did any good is moot. Too many people who came to speak to us didn't have a vote. Those who did were asking for reassurance, and certainty. We did what we could, but of course there aren't any certainties.
The only point made that seemed to 'work' was explaining that we are all very pro-Europe. We are simply against the bureacratic, corrupt and unnecessary EU.
The atmoshere on the stand was far better than on the Remain stand 20 yards away.
My gut feeling was that there are far more 'Don't Knows' than show up in the polls. 'Project Fear' has an impact, but lacks 'warmth'.
People have said that Cameron and Osborne will get the boot afterwards too. Is that bullying?
"Net migration could fall by about 100,000 a year if the UK leaves the EU and introduces work permits for EU citizens, a pressure group has said."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35414310
Is anyone in Leave promising that? And how would we get all 27 EU member states to agree it? What would we give up in exchange?
"So the choice seems to be this: do we hang on in there on the back seat of the EU minibus, careering towards the burning building that is the EU dream, all the while screaming for the driver to change direction in the hope that he will finally listen and change course? "
"Or do we jump, knowing that without our voice, the driving may get worse, the landing could break our bones (and the driver might deliberately exacerbate the pain of our landing) – and then we might well get burnt to a cinder anyway when the bus hits the building and explodes? "
The challenge for me is how to get the EU to reform into a viable entity. We have tried for more than 20 years to get it to reform into a better system and as time has gone on it has just got worse. In its present construction and following Cameron's renegotiations it looks incapable of real reform. Most of its Leaders lack the drive to tackle its big problems and just want deeper integration. That is why I favour LEAVE.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176875/In-or-Out-of-the-EU-Im-proud-that-I-dont-know-yet.html
It's not that he didn't know that bothers me it's that it all sounded so Heath Robinson. I know the British like a gung ho spirit but it just felt too 2nd World War...
Being an activist for any party means believing six impossible things before breakfast every day, and always has done.
Jezza 's good points are as Nick describes. He believes what he says and he says what he believes, and he's been saying it for half a century despite all the evidence against. The old joke about the man in the lunatic asylum who believes he's Napoleon is another example.
Cameron being honest about Europe is another. Being a good politician means saying what you need to say to achieve your aims. Most people only get vague impressions so you can get away with it.
I remember a disastrous Francis Pym interview where he was virtually reduced to drooling. Afterwards, he was reported as saying he had lost the election for the Tories. No, Francis, you were sh*te, but committed Labour voters would say that anyway. If jezza had done the same, committed Tory voters would have said the same. The non-committed weren't watching.
What was important was that the BBC didn't show it every ten minutes on I-player in those days.
The media is the decision maker but only in a tight contest.
I will vote Leave only because we should vote for our own lunatics and not have them thrust upon us.
A funny take on the referendum aiming at a relatively uninformed audience:
Will leaving the EU be like Robbie Williams leaving Take That, or Geri Halliwell leaving the Spice Girls!
https://youtu.be/-rr1le-EjCs
Unless you think we should never change anything how is that News? Never changing anything isn't positive, it is sclerotic.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35668069
Leavers have been banging on about a referendum for years. Now they finally have one all they can do is belly ache that the Remain side is using fear and doubt as a tactic. What on earth did they expect?
maybe he doesnt actually read his own posts
French agricultural products? The premium ones - Champagne, other wines, cheeses and so on - can only be obtained from France. So that just means higher prices for them. As it does for similar types of product from elsewhere in the EU.
Then there is the specialist stuff that we import and which is hard to source from elsewhere. That is still going to come from the EU, but will just be more expensive.
Two questions the EU member states will be asking themselves during a negotiation are: how much of our current exports to the UK can we bank whatever happens?; and, for the rest, how willing is the British government to inflict higher prices and reduced competition on British consumers in order to drive a deal.
None of this is brain surgery.
The fact is that we only get a Brexit deal once it has been negotiated. And the negotiation is not a one way street. What Leave needs to tell us is which of the freedoms we currently enjoy are we going to have to give up to get what we want.
Of course, if we just join the EEA none of this will be much of an issue. But neither will we be in a position to reduce immigration from the EU in any meaningful way.
He said whichever side wins the losers needs to know they lost
Again what did you expect? The EXACT same thing has happened in reverse on the other side too. Did you expect a one way Street? Would you only be satisfied if Remain rolled over and played dead. As no doubt Cameron and Osborne's careers are dead after this as it's OK for Leave commentators to say that but if Remain commentators say the same it is bullying.
Hypocrite.
I would urge them to stop taking about theoretical rubbish like sovereignty and start talking about practical realities.
So, for example, if we come out of the EU we come out of CAP. Who on earth wants to defend the CAP? We need to explain how the £2.5bn could be better spent giving us a better environment and cheaper food.
We need to explain what we could do if we once again controlled our own fisheries and help our coastal towns who have suffered so badly.
We need to explain it is better for UK politicians that we can throw out to determine how many benefits we need at work and where the best balance is for the UK.
We need to be clear that we recognise the importance of the Single Market and accept that that imposes some limitations on what we can do even outside the EU.
We need to explain how EFTA and the EEA work together where that is in their interests and that we would too. This is not goodbye but a different relationship
I am for Leave purely for the following reasons
I will not support that bawfaced lying toerag and his imaginary deal.
If Scottp is for it then it has to be crap decision
I just wanted everyone to know that.
I am shocked
His Oscar performances are as legendary as his political "insight" ....
If you make a mistake, enter again with the same name/email and I'll remove the first.
If Leave wins all Remainers should be forced to wear Blackshirts
The first occasion the EU work against us, say by increasing our contribution, demanding we help bail out another Eurozone member or whatever, then the country will be up in arms. Cameron, Osborne and the rest will be seen as the snivelling, lying bullies that they are, and the next referendum won't take 40 years, more like four.
I believe we will be out by 2022 come what may.
Just checked my Betfair account following your Oscars thread.
I had a couple of quid on each of your tips that were above evens.
Ex Machina for visual effects came in at 41/1
Mark Rylance for Supporting actor paid a very nice 7/2
Thank you very much.
Come "Referendum Day" the power lies with us. It is the ultimate weapon of the common man in democracies.
If that is the case it will be an overwhelming REMAIN victory I think.
How do you address this without a snort of disgust? I am really not sure. Pointing out that Tories who, for example, reduced maternity rights would probably not get re-elected is unlikely to do it.
http://www.cityam.com/235556/the-city-has-nothing-to-fear-and-much-to-gain-from-brexit
edit: interestingly he noted that the EU Treaties explicitly forbid limitation on freedom of capital between EU members and third party countries
Of course the agreements on the Single Market might impose some restrictions on farming support because they would otherwise have an unfair competitive advantage within that single market. Leaving the CFP does not mean our part of the north sea will suddenly be teeming with cod again. There may well be common sense in coordinating our conservation measures with others in the north sea.
But these are then matters for negotiation and agreement. We are no longer bound by QMV rules of a club we are no longer members of. That is really the point.
Of course the long term view of future Gov'ts is unknown on these issues so all promises are in effect worthless come say 2035 when we've been out the EU and have gone through a few Gov't cycles... But people generally don't look beyond 5 years anyhow.
As is he is going to make no such promises - he is the Remainer in chief ! It's a tricky one for "Leave" as I say.
There's only so long people can scream Jezza the Bogeyman and if he goes then what. A realignment on the right isn't unthinkable.
Once we vote to leave, if there is no agreement, then they lose preferred access to the UK market. So, overall, the deal has to be acceptable to both sides - which will not be the case if it is worse than the current one for the UK
My letter went off to Dan Hannan at the weekend. It said pretty much exactly that.
I will also be emailing Matthew Elliot today, so will double-check I've got all your points properly covered before I send that off too.