politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks
Sometimes a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing. You can get very bogged down in the minutiae and ignore the big picture. And right now, there are precisely three important things going on in British politics.
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It will be very interesting to see how well the Lib Dems do in the elections in May.
The US is more expensive, but a lot of that is additional legal costs and cover, rather than fees going to investment bankers.
But, my understanding was that the legal fees et al (£250,000 in the UK vs $2m in the US) are on top of the gross spread?
3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .
In the Tories Cameron is in his swan song and all will be to play for regardless of the outcome of the referendum. And Monty left, how much more evidence that staying is the smart move does the right need?
In Labour there is likely to be a crisis of leadership after May but again it is far too early for the sane part of the party to throw the towel in. Corbyn's utter irrelevance to any real world issues means the membership is willing to look at a more unifying candidate. The hope that Osborne might be their opponent should keep them focussed.
I think that is more like 20/1 that either party will split in any meaningful way, I think the Tories being the most seats in 2020 is pretty much nailed on even if a majority is very far from such and I just can't see the nonce finder general leading Labour. To say his judgement is open to question would be serious understatement.
Given the difficulties in removing a sitting Labour leader then think more possibility of a split and a new left of centre party becoming established . This leaves Corbyn to run the RumpLabour with the remaining extremist left wing loonies spending most of their time shouting at people on street corners.
The new socialist party then seeks and wins power in 2050 lead by an as yet unknown young Prime Minister born in 2021.
Slight downfall is payout on any accumulator could take a while.
I'm finding it very hard to predict what will happen to the Conservative Party. The obvious possibilities seem to be:
1. Nothing much. Cameron carries on for a bit then hands over to Osborne or May.
2. Cameron is replaced by a Leaver after the referendum.
3. The party splits after the referendum (or before, at this rate
4. Something else
The problem is assigning rough probabilities to these outcomes. Obviously the referendum result is crucial in this.
Another complicating factor, if one is considering the next election, is how well Leave will go if that is the referendum result. Of course, right now, this is a very live political issue. Leave will be a disaster or paradise depending on who you listen to. If it turns to be noticeably painful then the Conservative Party is (one would think) going to be blamed for it.
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/
This really is bizarre but will only come to a crisis when teachers start getting threatened for supposedly missing that a child was at risk.
That said, I am also not persuaded to lay Tory Most Seats. My wallet is glued shut on that.
Which isn't going to happen. Because what Corbyn is doing, and the resulting Labour division is fundamentally different. It's not just about an issue, or even several issues, or how rubbish he is at his job. He wants to fundamentally change what constitutes the party so it becomes a Bennite dictatorship of the membership. Which of course is a disaster for any mainstream political party, as it becomes a self-reinforcing process of purification which drags you further and further away from the electorate and makes you operate like the Greens - great for attracting obsessives, winning votes, not so much. Plus, it also results in wishlist style manifestos as members don't tend to work out the elaborate interlinked financial implications of different policies. Just think what the Tories would look like if they did the same. At some point, there will be a full scale civil war or a formal split because there isn't any alternative - a fully Corbynista party is not one those members and MPs who oppose him can be members of because it wouldn't be Labour in any meaningful sense any more.
Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.
I'm a pretty committed Leaver* - I could be convinced for Remain, but I'm pretty cynical now given "project Fear", the crapness of the deal we've been offered and Cameron's disembling and lack of good faith.
But I'll still vote for a centrist as the next leader of the party.
*(probably 80/20)
I'd be very wary of reading too much into the local by-elections. Our first real test of the state of the parties this May should give us a much better guide.
Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.
A party led or dominated by Osborne or Gove or Boris will be a very centre right party, arguably more of the former and hardly any of the latter. The Cameroons seem to have both sides of the referendum sewn up to me.
"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.
I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.
There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.
The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.
In any case, the Tories claim about 2005 related to the West Lothian Question and English legislation specifically, and was perfectly reasonable. It wasn't about Labour's mandate to form a government.
And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.
I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?
Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.
But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.
For a second there, I got confused with Heidi Allen.
2012 was the high water mark for the LibDems last electoral cycle. Any improvement should be a real boost to them.
Main party combined vote shares have stabilised, but at a level far below their previous shares of a generation ago. The current system is fundamentally unstable and figures in both main parties are giving it a shove.
Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.
I also agree that if any of those three wins the leadership the result will be as you say. I'm unclear that that is likely though. In particular, if Leave wins, will Gove stand and will Boris (who will surely stand) win, given that he doesn't seem to be establishing himself as the leader of the Leave side?
Your view of our future prospects is excessively pessimistic and those sky scrapers in London will play an important part in that future.
If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.
I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35682844
The resolution of Labour's travails in particular look set to be inevitably bloody and messy. There are many possible resolutions but some of them include splits.
The Conservatives are not as far down the track but show every bit as much ideological intransigence, coupled with smug complacency that their opponents are unelectable. That's a recipe for a very bumpy ride.
However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.
https://twitter.com/INJO/status/704000914240073729
And that wasn't a Mussolini quote, but an italian army slogan from WWI :
https://twitter.com/20committee/status/704002447270940672
What David Cameron should have done:
1. Referendum within six weeks of re-election, "give me the mandate to negotiate with Europe".
2. Spent the next four years trying to bring the non-Eurozone countries into a solid block: Sweden, Denmark, maybe one or two Eastern Europeans, us. Use this group to generate a settlement for those countries that have effectively opted out of "ever closer union".
3. Have second referendum coincident with the 2020 general election, so as to stuff UKIP.
Remember: I never said I wanted this referendum. I wouldn't have called it without double-digit leads in the country for Leave, and a Leave leader willing to lead the country Out.
It's also interesting how quickly and shamelessly Osborne (who recognises he totally miscalculated on this) is able to do a complete 180° to respond to changed circumstances.
As a eurosceptic Tory I simply do not recognise your description of the man or the situation. I disagree with Cameron on this. It is not the end of the world and I will still be a Tory when it is over, when Cameron has retired and when Osborne is PM.
Cameron may have made a reckless high risk move with his failed renegotiation, but it's too early to say if the Tories will sacrifice him to maintain unity.
However the more he pushes it, the more likely it is that he will be sacrificed.
But the MPs may sacrifice their leader to placate the electoral gods, getting rid of one is far more feasible than 150.
Only a Leave stops Osborne. And that still looks unlikely to me.
A lay of the Tories - Most GE Seats at 1.36 is equivalent to decimal odds of 3.63 net of Betfair's 5% commission. This is approximately 4.4% less than the best odds of 11/4 (or 3.75 decimal) available from the major bookmakers.
This marginally inferior return is worthwhile in my opinion, given the advantage of being able to trade out one's bet with Betfair at some stage or other over the next 4yrs and 2 months.
Also he thought squaring his own side, hoodwinking the public, and Project Fear would be much easier and get him through it with a fairly comprehensive win.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_420406.pdf
I will use the base tax reliefs, but any other spare cash I have I will probably diverge into property, peer-to-peer lending, stocks & shares isas and a little bit in betting.
I agree completely on the need for a new casus belli though years of playing Paradox Grand Strategy games has taught that if you want a casus belli hard enough you can create one.
The most obvious casus belli to me would be us triggering a review under Cameron's deal and the rest of the EU ignoring it. Though the irony of that then is that if the EU don't want to give us a casus belli they'd have to concede during any reviews we call. Meaning that far from being meaningless these reviews would be tremendously powerful but only under the right leadership.
Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.
I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.
"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.
If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.
No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.
Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.
I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.
Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.
Alternatively, take up drinking, smoking and hard drugs when you hit 60. You'll be through your savings within five years of retirement, but - boy - will you have had a good time.
Any trust I had in pensions has been destroyed by Brown and Osborne.
I will use the base tax reliefs, but any other spare cash I have I will probably diverge into property, peer-to-peer lending, stocks & shares isas and a little bit in betting.
I have a horrible feeling the whole peer to peer lending will blow up, I'm keeping out of that.
Stocks and shares ISA's plus I'm more than happy to live on my wits betting wise.
http://i.imgur.com/e1e77nN.jpg
We do need this referendum. The creation of the Eurozone requires it.
And that's excluding any nasty black swans: like mass co-ordinated terror attacks in a series of European capitals, the election of a far-right leader in an EU country, or further Russian aggression, perhaps this time in the Baltic States.
Not pleasant. Not pleasant at all.
Which is not to say I'm not saving, I've saved something of my income for a rainy day since I was doing part time work at 17 and saved properly since I graduated from my MSc and got full time work at 22.
But savings for pensions seems to be dead and insecure money and I've looked to be more productive with my income. Paying off debts, saving for a mortgage (not as easy as it used to be) paying down the mortgage and then saving to invest in a business. Now I have a mortgaged house, and a mortgaged business and am looking to pay down those debts first. Plus I save a little each month for my daughter as who knows what uni fees or mortgage deposits will be when she grows up.
The way I view it is that whether it is saving for a pension or saving for something else doesn't matter that much and it is better to be more secure by getting out of debt and I can put away pension savings later on. Besides anything the business is worth when I retire I'd hope to sell it for.
Is that super risky? Should I not ignore pension savings?