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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest betting tips from Alastair Meeks

 Sometimes a lot of knowledge is a dangerous thing.  You can get very bogged down in the minutiae and ignore the big picture.  And right now, there are precisely three important things going on in British politics.

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OldKingCole

The LibDems seem to be doing better at local level than might be expected from the opinion polls.

rottenborough

2nd. Like Rubio.

PClipp

Knocked down at the last election, Mr Cole, but certainly not out of the game!

It will be very interesting to see how well the Lib Dems do in the elections in May.

rcs1000

@Charles: I've been involved with quite a few tech company IPOs - in the UK, Denmark, Germany and the US.

The US is more expensive, but a lot of that is additional legal costs and cover, rather than fees going to investment bankers.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

@Charles: I've been involved with quite a few tech company IPOs - in the UK, Denmark, Germany and the US.

The US is more expensive, but a lot of that is additional legal costs and cover, rather than fees going to investment bankers.

My sector is so cash rich that I don't have to deal with the equity markets much, so it's anecdotal knowledge rather than first hand.

But, my understanding was that the legal fees et al (£250,000 in the UK vs $2m in the US) are on top of the gross spread?

MarqueeMark

2. The Conservatives are divided with a large chunk of the party wishing to move rightwards as a result of the referendum psychodrama Highly subjective and speaking as a rather more objective Party insider - wrong with the added siren call of UKIP to destabilise that party.UKIP is the party that should be looked at as being in need of intensive care.

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

DavidL

Alastair needs to get back on the sauce, alcohol deprivation is making him irrational. 6/1 that one of our 2 main parties fractures? Seriously? Labour MPs are still scarred with memories of the SDP (as are all UK politicians to a greater or lesser extent) and Tories have more recent memories of the fate of the TPD as TSE likes to call him, last seen dreaming of a new career in Wales.

In the Tories Cameron is in his swan song and all will be to play for regardless of the outcome of the referendum. And Monty left, how much more evidence that staying is the smart move does the right need?

In Labour there is likely to be a crisis of leadership after May but again it is far too early for the sane part of the party to throw the towel in. Corbyn's utter irrelevance to any real world issues means the membership is willing to look at a more unifying candidate. The hope that Osborne might be their opponent should keep them focussed.

I think that is more like 20/1 that either party will split in any meaningful way, I think the Tories being the most seats in 2020 is pretty much nailed on even if a majority is very far from such and I just can't see the nonce finder general leading Labour. To say his judgement is open to question would be serious understatement.

Moses_

Next Labour leader Mmmm...

Given the difficulties in removing a sitting Labour leader then think more possibility of a split and a new left of centre party becoming established . This leaves Corbyn to run the RumpLabour with the remaining extremist left wing loonies spending most of their time shouting at people on street corners.

The new socialist party then seeks and wins power in 2050 lead by an as yet unknown young Prime Minister born in 2021.

Slight downfall is payout on any accumulator could take a while.

Wanderer

Thanks Alastair. Another interesting read.

I'm finding it very hard to predict what will happen to the Conservative Party. The obvious possibilities seem to be:

1. Nothing much. Cameron carries on for a bit then hands over to Osborne or May.

2. Cameron is replaced by a Leaver after the referendum.

3. The party splits after the referendum (or before, at this rate )

4. Something else

The problem is assigning rough probabilities to these outcomes. Obviously the referendum result is crucial in this.

Another complicating factor, if one is considering the next election, is how well Leave will go if that is the referendum result. Of course, right now, this is a very live political issue. Leave will be a disaster or paradise depending on who you listen to. If it turns to be noticeably painful then the Conservative Party is (one would think) going to be blamed for it.

NorfolkTilIDie

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

Wanderer

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

Yes, bizarre.

MarkSenior

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

The Conservatives did not win the last GE by capturing the centre ground . They scraped an overall majority with less than 37% of the vote , something which they shouted out was undemocratic when Labour did the same in 2005 .

AndyJS

23 seats still to be declared in Ireland:

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/

DavidL

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

When my daughter was in P1 she wrote that all the walls in her house were white. Not true but certainly a short description.

This really is bizarre but will only come to a crisis when teachers start getting threatened for supposedly missing that a child was at risk.

Wanderer

DavidL said:

Alastair needs to get back on the sauce, alcohol deprivation is making him irrational. 6/1 that one of our 2 main parties fractures? Seriously? Labour MPs are still scarred with memories of the SDP (as are all UK politicians to a greater or lesser extent) and Tories have more recent memories of the fate of the TPD as TSE likes to call him, last seen dreaming of a new career in Wales.

In the Tories Cameron is in his swan song and all will be to play for regardless of the outcome of the referendum. And Monty left, how much more evidence that staying is the smart move does the right need?

In Labour there is likely to be a crisis of leadership after May but again it is far too early for the sane part of the party to throw the towel in. Corbyn's utter irrelevance to any real world issues means the membership is willing to look at a more unifying candidate. The hope that Osborne might be their opponent should keep them focussed.

I think that is more like 20/1 that either party will split in any meaningful way, I think the Tories being the most seats in 2020 is pretty much nailed on even if a majority is very far from such and I just can't see the nonce finder general leading Labour. To say his judgement is open to question would be serious understatement.

It *should* be clear to Conservatives that splitting is electoral suicide. I think there's a tendency to answer every such thought with "Corbyn", though.

That said, I am also not persuaded to lay Tory Most Seats. My wallet is glued shut on that.

Theuniondivvie

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

One indisputable fact is that you're looking at Scotland through a telescope provided by Simon Johnson and the Telegraph.

DavidL

AndyJS said:

23 seats still to be declared in Ireland:

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/

Who could have imagined that the Irish would go for a system that so seriously impinged on drinking time

viewcode

I seem to spend my life IRL and this board checking people's numbers and berating them when they get it wrong. So imagine my relief when those numbers are pretty much bang on. Thank you, sir.

Indigo said:

...Get someone around to paint your living room, £120/day. Get someone around mow your lawn £15/hr...

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

One indisputable fact is that you're looking at Scotland through a telescope provided by Simon Johnson and the Telegraph.

There is some truth in that. This policy is the most ridiculous idea since independence but I have never heard of this alleged campaign group against the policy.

marktheowl

The thing about the Tories' division and lurching to the right (roughly speaking - Europe is more complicated, but generally Tory outers want to shift the country rightward) is that it's only about one issue, one that admittedly affects all areas of government, but that will largely be solved either way by the end of the year. It may cause some major casualties among the party's top ranks and end the careers of a few big beasts, but eventually the party will unite around a person on either side who's come out of the whole referendum with a certain amount of credit and keep them in power. It won't destroy the party unless Labour gets out of its funk and starts leading comfortably in the polls, and Tory MPs start to think the future's grim and act up.

Which isn't going to happen. Because what Corbyn is doing, and the resulting Labour division is fundamentally different. It's not just about an issue, or even several issues, or how rubbish he is at his job. He wants to fundamentally change what constitutes the party so it becomes a Bennite dictatorship of the membership. Which of course is a disaster for any mainstream political party, as it becomes a self-reinforcing process of purification which drags you further and further away from the electorate and makes you operate like the Greens - great for attracting obsessives, winning votes, not so much. Plus, it also results in wishlist style manifestos as members don't tend to work out the elaborate interlinked financial implications of different policies. Just think what the Tories would look like if they did the same. At some point, there will be a full scale civil war or a formal split because there isn't any alternative - a fully Corbynista party is not one those members and MPs who oppose him can be members of because it wouldn't be Labour in any meaningful sense any more.

Wanderer

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

Wanderer

Theuniondivvie said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

One indisputable fact is that you're looking at Scotland through a telescope provided by Simon Johnson and the Telegraph.

Fair comment.

rottenborough

marktheowl said:

The thing about the Tories' division and lurching to the right (roughly speaking - Europe is more complicated, but generally Tory outers want to shift the country rightward) is that it's only about one issue, one that admittedly affects all areas of government, but that will largely be solved either way by the end of the year. It may cause some major casualties among the party's top ranks and end the careers of a few big beasts, but eventually the party will unite around a person on either side who's come out of the whole referendum with a certain amount of credit and keep them in power. It won't destroy the party unless Labour gets out of its funk and starts leading comfortably in the polls, and Tory MPs start to think the future's grim and act up.

Which isn't going to happen. Because what Corbyn is doing, and the resulting Labour division is fundamentally different. It's not just about an issue, or even several issues, or how rubbish he is at his job. He wants to fundamentally change what constitutes the party so it becomes a Bennite dictatorship of the membership. Which of course is a disaster for any mainstream political party, as it becomes a self-reinforcing process of purification which drags you further and further away from the electorate and makes you operate like the Greens - great for attracting obsessives, winning votes, not so much. Plus, it also results in wishlist style manifestos as members don't tend to work out the elaborate interlinked financial implications of different policies. Just think what the Tories would look like if they did the same. At some point, there will be a full scale civil war or a formal split because there isn't any alternative - a fully Corbynista party is not one those members and MPs who oppose him can be members of because it wouldn't be Labour in any meaningful sense any more.

We may already have reached peak Corbyn. Apparently membership is falling in first months of 2016.

Charles

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

But it's not going to be Grayling or someone of his stamp.

I'm a pretty committed Leaver* - I could be convinced for Remain, but I'm pretty cynical now given "project Fear", the crapness of the deal we've been offered and Cameron's disembling and lack of good faith.

But I'll still vote for a centrist as the next leader of the party.

*(probably 80/20)

david_herdson

OldKingCole said:

The LibDems seem to be doing better at local level than might be expected from the opinion polls.

Bear in mind that most Lib Dem defences are now held against elections where there were about as badly off as they are now, that by-elections have a lower turnout so local factors play more strongly (which usually benefits the LDs), and that by-elections also tend to favour the LD ground game.

I'd be very wary of reading too much into the local by-elections. Our first real test of the state of the parties this May should give us a much better guide.

AlastairMeeks

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

notme

MarkSenior said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

The Conservatives did not win the last GE by capturing the centre ground . They scraped an overall majority with less than 37% of the vote , something which they shouted out was undemocratic when Labour did the same in 2005 .

Did they shout it out? Which Conservatives? Was it the conservative party? A conservative activist? Party leader? Chairman of the party?

DavidL

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

For me the most obvious moves to the centre have been Osborne's budget with the new national living wage and the retreat on benefits cuts. I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

A party led or dominated by Osborne or Gove or Boris will be a very centre right party, arguably more of the former and hardly any of the latter. The Cameroons seem to have both sides of the referendum sewn up to me.

saddened

MarkSenior said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

The Conservatives did not win the last GE by capturing the centre ground . They scraped an overall majority with less than 37% of the vote , something which they shouted out was undemocratic when Labour did the same in 2005 .

How well did the lib Dems do? A party that found out that exercising power is a great deal more difficult than carping from the sidelines. You got what you deserved. Attempting to be all things to all people is always found out and punished.

Casino_Royale

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Thanks to Southam for article on previous page. What on Earth are the SNP doing??

One indisputable fact is that you're looking at Scotland through a telescope provided by Simon Johnson and the Telegraph.

There is some truth in that. This policy is the most ridiculous idea since independence but I have never heard of this alleged campaign group against the policy.

Yet strangely I believe this ridiculous policy was approved by all Holyrood parties and most Scottish child welfare charities.

david_herdson

MarkSenior said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

The Conservatives did not win the last GE by capturing the centre ground . They scraped an overall majority with less than 37% of the vote , something which they shouted out was undemocratic when Labour did the same in 2005 .

The Conservatives won more votes than any party in any UK election this century. More than Blair in 2001, never mind 2005. That is a perfectly good mandate.

In any case, the Tories claim about 2005 related to the West Lothian Question and English legislation specifically, and was perfectly reasonable. It wasn't about Labour's mandate to form a government.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

Maybe I am forgetting my history Alastair but I can only recall one significant split in either major party since WW2.

And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.

John_N

notme said:

John_N said:

John_M said:

The UK is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

Where does it rank as an importer of manufactured goods? Its visible trade balance is very heavily in the red.

Here:
http://bfy.tw/4Ubw

Oh Notme, Notme, where do I begin? Does a link to "LMGTFY" pass as sophisticated where you come from? That search engine you linked to doesn't use natural language, so your suggested search indicates wetness behinds the ears. Don't you think I searched for a while before posting? My point that British trade is up the creek, and in any case relies largely on "invisible" exports, because Britain doesn't produce much that's visibly exportable any more, stands. John_M observed that Britain is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world. I should imagine someone here has its rankings as an exporter and importer of manufactured goods at their fingertips and could access them much quicker than even a person like me who is skilled with websearch engines could, let alone however long long a time you'd take, Notme.

I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?

Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.

But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.

Casino_Royale

"Heidi Alexander is 66/1, which is an astonishing price for a Labour politician with responsibility for the Health brief."

For a second there, I got confused with Heidi Allen.

Chris_A

Can't believe there's not been a thread on the Irish results with all the fun of STV being played out with some good graphics on many of the Irish websites.

rcs1000

david_herdson said:

OldKingCole said:

The LibDems seem to be doing better at local level than might be expected from the opinion polls.

Bear in mind that most Lib Dem defences are now held against elections where there were about as badly off as they are now, that by-elections have a lower turnout so local factors play more strongly (which usually benefits the LDs), and that by-elections also tend to favour the LD ground game.

I'd be very wary of reading too much into the local by-elections. Our first real test of the state of the parties this May should give us a much better guide.

The thing that should give the LibDems most cheer is not the results themselves - although that clearly helps - but that their activist base seems to be getting out and working for results.

2012 was the high water mark for the LibDems last electoral cycle. Any improvement should be a real boost to them.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

Maybe I am forgetting my history Alastair but I can only recall one significant split in either major party since WW2.

And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.

And three in the first half of the 20th century.

Main party combined vote shares have stabilised, but at a level far below their previous shares of a generation ago. The current system is fundamentally unstable and figures in both main parties are giving it a shove.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Wanderer

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

For me the most obvious moves to the centre have been Osborne's budget with the new national living wage and the retreat on benefits cuts. I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

A party led or dominated by Osborne or Gove or Boris will be a very centre right party, arguably more of the former and hardly any of the latter. The Cameroons seem to have both sides of the referendum sewn up to me.

Yes, Osborne's budget was a centrepiece of the strategy, as you would expect.

I also agree that if any of those three wins the leadership the result will be as you say. I'm unclear that that is likely though. In particular, if Leave wins, will Gove stand and will Boris (who will surely stand) win, given that he doesn't seem to be establishing himself as the leader of the Leave side?

DavidL

John_N said:

notme said:

John_N said:

John_M said:

The UK is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

Where does it rank as an importer of manufactured goods? Its visible trade balance is very heavily in the red.

Here:
http://bfy.tw/4Ubw

Oh Notme, Notme, where do I begin? Does a link to "LMGTFY" pass as sophisticated where you come from? That search engine you linked to doesn't use natural language, so your suggested search indicates wetness behinds the ears. Don't you think I searched for a while before posting? My point that British trade is up the creek, and in any case relies largely on "invisible" exports, because Britain doesn't produce much that's visibly exportable any more, stands. John_M observed that Britain is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world. I should imagine someone here has its rankings as an exporter and importer of manufactured goods at their fingertips and could access them much quicker than even a person like me who is skilled with websearch engines could, let alone however long long a time you'd take, Notme.

I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?

Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.

But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.

Why do you think this one increasingly small segment of our trade is particularly important to our children's future? I linked to David Smith's column this morning where he mentioned in passing that our exports of services doubled between 2006 and 2014. When you think about how the Internet is already dominating our lives we seem very well set for continued growth in exports and faster growth than most of the rest of the EU, including Germany.

Your view of our future prospects is excessively pessimistic and those sky scrapers in London will play an important part in that future.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

Maybe I am forgetting my history Alastair but I can only recall one significant split in either major party since WW2.

And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.

Wait... what about the Labour / Lincoln Democratic Labour Association split of 1973?

NorfolkTilIDie

Chris_A said:

Can't believe there's not been a thread on the Irish results with all the fun of STV being played out with some good graphics on many of the Irish websites.

I second this. Would be great to get some analysis here.

DavidL

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

John_M

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. If Remain win the referendum, there's no way I'd vote UKIP. They're incoherent politically. I'll have to spoil my ballot, I suppose.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

Maybe I am forgetting my history Alastair but I can only recall one significant split in either major party since WW2.

And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.

And three in the first half of the 20th century.

Main party combined vote shares have stabilised, but at a level far below their previous shares of a generation ago. The current system is fundamentally unstable and figures in both main parties are giving it a shove.

Wasn't it Keynes who said that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? I really struggle to see the instability despite Scotland changing so rapidly into a one party state that is neither Labour or Tory. The inertia in the current set up is huge.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

NorfolkTilIDie

Fresh from having no issue with David Duke's endorsement, Trump is tweeting Mussolini quotes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35682844

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

DavidL

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

And you will. The problem is people using pensions as tax avoidance rather than those genuinely trying to plan for a reasonable retirement. I wonder if the practice of using pensions as a means of avoiding inheritance tax might also be looked at.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Anyone offering 20/1 against a split in either major party in a Parliament should consider the past frequency of such splits. And both parties are heading further to the fringes simultaneously, opening a gap in the middle.

Splits are more likely when both parties are riven simultaneously. Each will have factions judging that the time to make a break is uniquely propitious.

Maybe I am forgetting my history Alastair but I can only recall one significant split in either major party since WW2.

And I don't agree that the Tories are running rightwards. The Cameroons are classic one nation Tories and they are completely dominant in the party as shown by their leadership of both sides of the referendum debate.

And three in the first half of the 20th century.

Main party combined vote shares have stabilised, but at a level far below their previous shares of a generation ago. The current system is fundamentally unstable and figures in both main parties are giving it a shove.

Wasn't it Keynes who said that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? I really struggle to see the instability despite Scotland changing so rapidly into a one party state that is neither Labour or Tory. The inertia in the current set up is huge.

That's why it's clearly odds against. This is something I don't expect to happen but I think is much more likely to happen than is generally assumed.

The resolution of Labour's travails in particular look set to be inevitably bloody and messy. There are many possible resolutions but some of them include splits.

The Conservatives are not as far down the track but show every bit as much ideological intransigence, coupled with smug complacency that their opponents are unelectable. That's a recipe for a very bumpy ride.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

NorfolkTilIDie

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

How can he be surprised?? He talked about fundamental change in the EU for years, and then didn't get even basic restraint on the Eurogroup dominating things.

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

That should be correct.

However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.

Speedy

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Fresh from having no issue with David Duke's endorsement, Trump is tweeting Mussolini quotes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35682844

He disavowed it on Friday:

https://twitter.com/INJO/status/704000914240073729

And that wasn't a Mussolini quote, but an italian army slogan from WWI :

https://twitter.com/20committee/status/704002447270940672

NorfolkTilIDie

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Leavers should wait until the next Eurozone treaty before asking again. They should amend the referendum lock to make clear it applies to any deal that increases the coherence and power of the Eurogroup relative to us.

rcs1000

@SeanT

What David Cameron should have done:

1. Referendum within six weeks of re-election, "give me the mandate to negotiate with Europe".

2. Spent the next four years trying to bring the non-Eurozone countries into a solid block: Sweden, Denmark, maybe one or two Eastern Europeans, us. Use this group to generate a settlement for those countries that have effectively opted out of "ever closer union".

3. Have second referendum coincident with the 2020 general election, so as to stuff UKIP.

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Yes. We will have to be very, very careful on calling a second referendum and the circumstances will have to have changed sufficiently to provide an obvious casus belli for it.

Remember: I never said I wanted this referendum. I wouldn't have called it without double-digit leads in the country for Leave, and a Leave leader willing to lead the country Out.

DavidL

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

That should be correct.

However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.

If any of Matthew Parris' suggestions about anything were acted upon I am going to have to put up with Alastair saying I told you so. I am not unduly worried at this point.

PBModerator

SeanT, you'e using language that gets you automatically banned by the spam trap, tone it down

SouthamObserver

The one big difference between this referendum and the Scottish one is that passion is a minority affair. If Remain win that'll be it. Very few people will want another vote.

Casino_Royale

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

The Sunday Times is absolutely fascinating today. Boris is now convinced "he has to fight", for example, and "lose well" to save his career - e.g. 60/40 means it's all over for him.

It's also interesting how quickly and shamelessly Osborne (who recognises he totally miscalculated on this) is able to do a complete 180° to respond to changed circumstances.

DavidL

@SeanT

As a eurosceptic Tory I simply do not recognise your description of the man or the situation. I disagree with Cameron on this. It is not the end of the world and I will still be a Tory when it is over, when Cameron has retired and when Osborne is PM.

Speedy

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

I also think that the Tories will remain united, but the harder Cameron pushes for Remain the harder it will be to maintain that unity even in the face of Corbyn.

Cameron may have made a reckless high risk move with his failed renegotiation, but it's too early to say if the Tories will sacrifice him to maintain unity.
However the more he pushes it, the more likely it is that he will be sacrificed.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

That should be correct.

However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.

Matthew Parris is fast becoming the wets' Tim Montgomerie.

DavidL

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

It's also interesting how quickly and shamelessly Osborne (who recognises he totally miscalculated on this) is able to do a complete 180° to respond to changed circumstances.

You are surprised at this? I really admire Osborne but his greatest fault is that it is all tactics with him.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

@SeanT

As a eurosceptic Tory I simply do not recognise your description of the man or the situation. I disagree with Cameron on this. It is not the end of the world and I will still be a Tory when it is over, when Cameron has retired and when Osborne is PM.

Surely the only way Osborne gets to Number 10 now is with a very big Remain win. And that is extremely unlikely.

HurstLlama

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

It's also interesting how quickly and shamelessly Osborne (who recognises he totally miscalculated on this) is able to do a complete 180° to respond to changed circumstances.

You are surprised at this? I really admire Osborne but his greatest fault is that it is all tactics with him.

Oh no, I'm not surprised at all. Just tickled by it.

Speedy

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

That should be correct.

However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.

You can't oust 150 Tory MPs from the Tory party no matter which side wins.
But the MPs may sacrifice their leader to placate the electoral gods, getting rid of one is far more feasible than 150.

Sean_F

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

I also think that the Tories will remain united, but the harder Cameron pushes for Remain the harder it will be to maintain that unity even in the face of Corbyn.

Cameron may have made a reckless high risk move with his failed renegotiation, but it's too early to say if the Tories will sacrifice him to maintain unity.
However the more he pushes it, the more likely it is that he will be sacrificed.

That's genuinely interesting. Why go for a half-hearted, rushed, negotiation, which you surely could have guessed would be badly received by your own side?

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

@SeanT

As a eurosceptic Tory I simply do not recognise your description of the man or the situation. I disagree with Cameron on this. It is not the end of the world and I will still be a Tory when it is over, when Cameron has retired and when Osborne is PM.

Surely the only way Osborne gets to Number 10 now is with a very big Remain win. And that is extremely unlikely.

Nope. He gets to No 10 with any remain win and with Gove as his Chancellor in a unity team. He has already set it up. Were they not having a very pleasant dinner last week?


Only a Leave stops Osborne. And that still looks unlikely to me.

rcs1000

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

Alternatively, take up drinking, smoking and hard drugs when you hit 60. You'll be through your savings within five years of retirement, but - boy - will you have had a good time.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Labour would never risk a referendum. Ever.

By the time Labour are back in power this country will be way beyond worrying about the EU.

Casino_Royale

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

It's ok. Gideon is going to help me with that.

Sean_F

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Speaking as a centrist currently in the Conservative orbit I think Alastair is right about this.

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

Alternatively, take up drinking, smoking and hard drugs when you hit 60. You'll be through your savings within five years of retirement, but - boy - will you have had a good time.

And, annuities are very good value if you do so.

peter_from_putney

On Thread:

A lay of the Tories - Most GE Seats at 1.36 is equivalent to decimal odds of 3.63 net of Betfair's 5% commission. This is approximately 4.4% less than the best odds of 11/4 (or 3.75 decimal) available from the major bookmakers.
This marginally inferior return is worthwhile in my opinion, given the advantage of being able to trade out one's bet with Betfair at some stage or other over the next 4yrs and 2 months.

DavidL

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

That should be correct.

However, if Matthew Parris' suggestion that the winners should purge the losers from the Conservative Party is carried out, it won't be.

If any of Matthew Parris' suggestions about anything were acted upon I am going to have to put up with Alastair saying I told you so. I am not unduly worried at this point.

lol. How are they gonna fucking purge them? Eurosceptics represent 80% of the Tory party. Parris is a twat.

Language Sean. But yes, he is.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Labour would never risk a referendum. Ever.

I was assuming that a Leave leaning Conservative Party got elected.

TCPoliticalBetting

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

UKIP is already splitting. The Farage faction vs Carswell/Evans etc.

Speedy

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Hmm. I agree with laying Dan Jarvis. I just about might lay Conservative most seats down to about 1.5-1.6 on Betfair, but no further.

"Other parties most seats" is money down the drain. It *will* be Labour or the Conservatives at the next election, which will be under FPTP.

I think the odds of the Conservatives splitting have dramatically lengthened over the last two weeks. Outters now have prima facie evidence of almost half the parliamentary party supporting Brexit, with some serious leadership contenders right at the front of it. At the same time, Farage is blowing his mission of a lifetime with petty vindictiveness towards those who don't see his ego as more important than achieving UK independence.

There is now no real reason for Outters to leave the Conservatives, and plenty of reasons for sensible UKIP'ers to join it, as the most practical (and likely) way to achieve it.

The party that may be most likely to split after this referendum is UKIP.

Doesn't that depend on the result:

Out: UKIP splits because primary purpose achieved.
Narrow In: Conservatives become party of Out. UKIP splits.
Big In. Remain-er becomes Conservative leader. UKIP benefits.

Yes, that's probably fair enough. But it would defer any split until that leader is elected, which wouldn't be until 2019/2020 under your last scenario.

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Labour would never risk a referendum. Ever.

By the time Labour are back in power this country will be way beyond worrying about the EU.

We would be probably worried about the ruins left behind by the Tories, usually a change in government is preceded by a catastrophe of some sort.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

@SeanT

As a eurosceptic Tory I simply do not recognise your description of the man or the situation. I disagree with Cameron on this. It is not the end of the world and I will still be a Tory when it is over, when Cameron has retired and when Osborne is PM.

Surely the only way Osborne gets to Number 10 now is with a very big Remain win. And that is extremely unlikely.

Nope. He gets to No 10 with any remain win and with Gove as his Chancellor in a unity team. He has already set it up. Were they not having a very pleasant dinner last week?


Only a Leave stops Osborne. And that still looks unlikely to me.

It's up to the members, isn't it? Osborne would be the sane option if Remain wins (a big if I'd say as turnout will be pretty low), but surely an Outer is more likely. It's not as if Osborne is popular in the country.

Scrapheap_as_was

Fantasy football position for spurs.

Casino_Royale

Sean_F said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

I also think that the Tories will remain united, but the harder Cameron pushes for Remain the harder it will be to maintain that unity even in the face of Corbyn.

Cameron may have made a reckless high risk move with his failed renegotiation, but it's too early to say if the Tories will sacrifice him to maintain unity.
However the more he pushes it, the more likely it is that he will be sacrificed.

That's genuinely interesting. Why go for a half-hearted, rushed, negotiation, which you surely could have guessed would be badly received by your own side?

He isn't a great negotiator, couldn't really be arsed and wanted it over with quickly. He wants the final years of his premiership to be about something else.

Also he thought squaring his own side, hoodwinking the public, and Project Fear would be much easier and get him through it with a fairly comprehensive win.

Richard_Tyndall

John_N said:

notme said:

John_N said:

John_M said:

The UK is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

Where does it rank as an importer of manufactured goods? Its visible trade balance is very heavily in the red.

Here:
http://bfy.tw/4Ubw

Oh Notme, Notme, where do I begin? Does a link to "LMGTFY" pass as sophisticated where you come from? That search engine you linked to doesn't use natural language, so your suggested search indicates wetness behinds the ears. Don't you think I searched for a while before posting? My point that British trade is up the creek, and in any case relies largely on "invisible" exports, because Britain doesn't produce much that's visibly exportable any more, stands. John_M observed that Britain is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world. I should imagine someone here has its rankings as an exporter and importer of manufactured goods at their fingertips and could access them much quicker than even a person like me who is skilled with websearch engines could, let alone however long long a time you'd take, Notme.

I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?

Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.

But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.

I am afraid you are wrong about export numbers relying on invisibles. According to the Pink Book for 2014 (the last year we have numbers for) export of goods amounts for considerably more of our GDP than export of services.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_420406.pdf

Casino_Royale

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

Wanderer said:

MarqueeMark said:

3. Large parts of the centre ground are largely empty it's only been 10 months since the Conservative Party captured this centre ground to form an overall majority with no sign of any party being able to lay automatic claim to a space where the largest chunk of voters sit with no sign of any meaningful recovery by the Liberal Democrats. Far from anyone seeking to occupy the space, it is becoming more deserted meaning, what, am feeling very alone and unloved in my version of the political centre? .

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.

"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.

Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

Alternatively, take up drinking, smoking and hard drugs when you hit 60. You'll be through your savings within five years of retirement, but - boy - will you have had a good time.

Any trust I had in pensions has been destroyed by Brown and Osborne.

I will use the base tax reliefs, but any other spare cash I have I will probably diverge into property, peer-to-peer lending, stocks & shares isas and a little bit in betting.

rcs1000

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

notme said:

John_N said:

John_M said:

The UK is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

Where does it rank as an importer of manufactured goods? Its visible trade balance is very heavily in the red.

Here:
http://bfy.tw/4Ubw

Oh Notme, Notme, where do I begin? Does a link to "LMGTFY" pass as sophisticated where you come from? That search engine you linked to doesn't use natural language, so your suggested search indicates wetness behinds the ears. Don't you think I searched for a while before posting? My point that British trade is up the creek, and in any case relies largely on "invisible" exports, because Britain doesn't produce much that's visibly exportable any more, stands. John_M observed that Britain is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world. I should imagine someone here has its rankings as an exporter and importer of manufactured goods at their fingertips and could access them much quicker than even a person like me who is skilled with websearch engines could, let alone however long long a time you'd take, Notme.

I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?

Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.

But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.

I am afraid you are wrong about export numbers relying on invisibles. According to the Pink Book for 2014 (the last year we have numbers for) export of goods amounts for considerably more of our GDP than export of services.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_420406.pdf

12% of GDP for services; 16% for goods

Philip_Thompson

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Yes. We will have to be very, very careful on calling a second referendum and the circumstances will have to have changed sufficiently to provide an obvious casus belli for it.

Remember: I never said I wanted this referendum. I wouldn't have called it without double-digit leads in the country for Leave, and a Leave leader willing to lead the country Out.

Two thoughts. I would caution the principle that the public don't like to be asked the same question twice. If in close proximity yes, if a long time has passed no. Don't forget in 2005 Tony Blair was still PM after having won this third consecutive landslide majority. Who could have dreamt then that not only would Labour be out of power next time but that a decade later it would be led by Jeremy Corbyn and be expected to be out of power for another DECADE? A second referendum in the next Parliament could be possible.

I agree completely on the need for a new casus belli though years of playing Paradox Grand Strategy games has taught that if you want a casus belli hard enough you can create one.

The most obvious casus belli to me would be us triggering a review under Cameron's deal and the rest of the EU ignoring it. Though the irony of that then is that if the EU don't want to give us a casus belli they'd have to concede during any reviews we call. Meaning that far from being meaningless these reviews would be tremendously powerful but only under the right leadership.

TCPoliticalBetting

Sean_F said:

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

Nicely written piece. Also delusional.

The Tory party won't split. They are united on Europe being either soft eurosceptic or hard eurosceptic. The only split is between the tiny Cameroon elite and everyone else.

Cameron will win his referendum by bullying the British people into voting REMAIN. Then everyone will turn on him and his allies. Quite rightly. The man is a [moderated] and a traitor. He is Heath times nine, with a dash of Etonian dislikeabilty.

Incidentally the Sunday Times (£££) makes fascinating reading today. Apparently Cameron is amazed and surprised at the opposition to his "deal" in Tory circles. Also, Lynton Crosby told him he was rushing the negotiation, therefore getting nothing, and he should reject it and wait until 2017.

That was good advice. Cameron should have taken it. Now he is doomed.

I also think that the Tories will remain united, but the harder Cameron pushes for Remain the harder it will be to maintain that unity even in the face of Corbyn.

Cameron may have made a reckless high risk move with his failed renegotiation, but it's too early to say if the Tories will sacrifice him to maintain unity.
However the more he pushes it, the more likely it is that he will be sacrificed.

That's genuinely interesting. Why go for a half-hearted, rushed, negotiation, which you surely could have guessed would be badly received by your own side?

Who is around Cameron since the GE? Were there any eurosceptics? His sole party chairman is a Chairman that is the most detached from the members. His main chief of staff Llewelyn is a europhile and is heavily involved in the negotiations. The Europe minister Liddington is a well known europhile. And then there is Osborne who took the lead cabinet role on the renegotiations (on a part time basis) along with his part time job as Chancellor and part time job as the COO/CEO of Govt. No sign of a eurosceptic in this cosy group. Just people with the same mind set oblivious to the views of the bulk of their party. Now what could go wrong with that? Oh, just to really eff it up, ignore the advice of Crosby.

nigel4england

Labour are so far from the centre as to be out of sight. The Conservatives have made a move towards the centre as expressed in Cameron's last conference speech. There has been some tangible work in government too - I think particularly of Gove's dismantling of Grayling's legacy at the MoJ. But if the same Grayling (or someone of his stamp) is the next Conservative leader, that's the end of the Conservative occupation of any part of the centre ground.

I expect to see more of the same in a couple of weeks when the pension benefits of the super rich will be curtailed to protect public spending from the consequences of disappointing growth.


"Super rich" = salaried people working very hard, in high-stress jobs, to build their careers and provide for their families who earn between £40k and £75k.

If Osborne steals my pension, I will hound him to his grave.

No super rich means people like a friend of mine who paid £100k into his pension fund from capital last year and saved £20k of tax that mugs like me has to pay.


Then that would be fine. But he won't save much money just targeting them.

I have no source of income other than my salary (which I work bloody hard for) and my pensions savings are entirely dependent upon my PAYE contributions of 5% employer and 5% employee (me) each month, and the tax relief I get on that.

Just 5%, Mr Royale. You ain't saving enough. Double that and add a bit, then you might be comfortable in retirement and able to maintain your standard of living.

Alternatively, take up drinking, smoking and hard drugs when you hit 60. You'll be through your savings within five years of retirement, but - boy - will you have had a good time.

Any trust I had in pensions has been destroyed by Brown and Osborne.

I will use the base tax reliefs, but any other spare cash I have I will probably diverge into property, peer-to-peer lending, stocks & shares isas and a little bit in betting.

I have a horrible feeling the whole peer to peer lending will blow up, I'm keeping out of that.

Stocks and shares ISA's plus I'm more than happy to live on my wits betting wise.

John_N

Juncker questions Cameron on the essential:

http://i.imgur.com/e1e77nN.jpg

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Yes. We will have to be very, very careful on calling a second referendum and the circumstances will have to have changed sufficiently to provide an obvious casus belli for it.

Remember: I never said I wanted this referendum. I wouldn't have called it without double-digit leads in the country for Leave, and a Leave leader willing to lead the country Out.

Two thoughts. I would caution the principle that the public don't like to be asked the same question twice. If in close proximity yes, if a long time has passed no. Don't forget in 2005 Tony Blair was still PM after having won this third consecutive landslide majority. Who could have dreamt then that not only would Labour be out of power next time but that a decade later it would be led by Jeremy Corbyn and be expected to be out of power for another DECADE? A second referendum in the next Parliament could be possible.

I agree completely on the need for a new casus belli though years of playing Paradox Grand Strategy games has taught that if you want a casus belli hard enough you can create one.

The most obvious casus belli to me would be us triggering a review under Cameron's deal and the rest of the EU ignoring it. Though the irony of that then is that if the EU don't want to give us a casus belli they'd have to concede during any reviews we call. Meaning that far from being meaningless these reviews would be tremendously powerful but only under the right leadership.

There is no causus belli now. The only reason we are having this referendum is because Dave was spooked by UKIP and a few right wing Tory MPs back in 2012.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

John_N said:

notme said:

John_N said:

John_M said:

The UK is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world.

Where does it rank as an importer of manufactured goods? Its visible trade balance is very heavily in the red.

Here:
http://bfy.tw/4Ubw

Oh Notme, Notme, where do I begin? Does a link to "LMGTFY" pass as sophisticated where you come from? That search engine you linked to doesn't use natural language, so your suggested search indicates wetness behinds the ears. Don't you think I searched for a while before posting? My point that British trade is up the creek, and in any case relies largely on "invisible" exports, because Britain doesn't produce much that's visibly exportable any more, stands. John_M observed that Britain is the 11th largest manufacturer in the world. I should imagine someone here has its rankings as an exporter and importer of manufactured goods at their fingertips and could access them much quicker than even a person like me who is skilled with websearch engines could, let alone however long long a time you'd take, Notme.

I'm not embarrassed to ask for info from those who might have it at their fingertips. Why should I be?

Britain's balance of payments is up the creek, as the skyscrapers in the City get taller and taller. It's obvious how it's going to end.

But still, if someone can post the country's rankings as exporter and importer of manufactured goods, or even better, with actual £ figures, I'd be be grateful.

I am afraid you are wrong about export numbers relying on invisibles. According to the Pink Book for 2014 (the last year we have numbers for) export of goods amounts for considerably more of our GDP than export of services.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_420406.pdf

12% of GDP for services; 16% for goods

And the trends are such that services will exceed goods in a relatively short time. They are probably under recorded too.

John_N

Richard_Tyndall said:

I am afraid you are wrong about export numbers relying on invisibles. According to the Pink Book for 2014 (the last year we have numbers for) export of goods amounts for considerably more of our GDP than export of services.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_420406.pdf

Thanks but what I meant was that goods trade is heavily in the red and invisible trade is heavily in the black. This has been so for many years. The overall balance of trade is in the red, but it would be much deeper in the red if it weren't for invisibles.

flightpath01

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

The danger for the Conservative Party, and for us Leavers generally, is a 55:45 result for In, followed by a Leaver become leader, and another referendum within five years that ends up with a 60:40 for In because voters don't like being asked the same question twice.

Yes. We will have to be very, very careful on calling a second referendum and the circumstances will have to have changed sufficiently to provide an obvious casus belli for it.

Remember: I never said I wanted this referendum. I wouldn't have called it without double-digit leads in the country for Leave, and a Leave leader willing to lead the country Out.

Two thoughts. I would caution the principle that the public don't like to be asked the same question twice. If in close proximity yes, if a long time has passed no. Don't forget in 2005 Tony Blair was still PM after having won this third consecutive landslide majority. Who could have dreamt then that not only would Labour be out of power next time but that a decade later it would be led by Jeremy Corbyn and be expected to be out of power for another DECADE? A second referendum in the next Parliament could be possible.

I agree completely on the need for a new casus belli though years of playing Paradox Grand Strategy games has taught that if you want a casus belli hard enough you can create one.

The most obvious casus belli to me would be us triggering a review under Cameron's deal and the rest of the EU ignoring it. Though the irony of that then is that if the EU don't want to give us a casus belli they'd have to concede during any reviews we call. Meaning that far from being meaningless these reviews would be tremendously powerful but only under the right leadership.

There is no causus belli now. The only reason we are having this referendum is because Dave was spooked by UKIP and a few right wing Tory MPs back in 2012.

No you are wrong there.
We do need this referendum. The creation of the Eurozone requires it.

Casino_Royale

@Philip_Thompson - yes, I agree with you; I think the EU sidelining the deal (which just says they have to listen to our concerns, and talk about it), further integration "let rip" once we give up our veto, another eurozone crisis and ongoing heavy migration are all factors that could play into demand for a second referendum in the 2020s.

And that's excluding any nasty black swans: like mass co-ordinated terror attacks in a series of European capitals, the election of a far-right leader in an EU country, or further Russian aggression, perhaps this time in the Baltic States.

Not pleasant. Not pleasant at all.

Alistair

I've just nibbled a bit more at Cruz because after Super Tuesday here's only going to be two people standing and Rubio isn't one of them.

Philip_Thompson

A question on pensions for sages here. I'm turning 34 this year and haven't saved a penny dedicated to a pension scheme yet.

Which is not to say I'm not saving, I've saved something of my income for a rainy day since I was doing part time work at 17 and saved properly since I graduated from my MSc and got full time work at 22.

But savings for pensions seems to be dead and insecure money and I've looked to be more productive with my income. Paying off debts, saving for a mortgage (not as easy as it used to be) paying down the mortgage and then saving to invest in a business. Now I have a mortgaged house, and a mortgaged business and am looking to pay down those debts first. Plus I save a little each month for my daughter as who knows what uni fees or mortgage deposits will be when she grows up.

The way I view it is that whether it is saving for a pension or saving for something else doesn't matter that much and it is better to be more secure by getting out of debt and I can put away pension savings later on. Besides anything the business is worth when I retire I'd hope to sell it for.

Is that super risky? Should I not ignore pension savings?

rcs1000

Alistair said:

I've just nibbled a bit more at Cruz because after Super Tuesday here's only going to be two people standing and Rubio isn't one of them.

The complete list of states won by Cruz that Santorum didn't win: