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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 25th 2016
Kingswinford North and Wall Heath (Con defence) and St. James (Lab defence) on Dudley
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 25, United Kingdom Independence Party 7, Independent 1, Green Party 1 (Labour majority of 4)
Result of ward at last election
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Comments
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First like Remain.0
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FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.0 -
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.0 -
Tories may lose 2-3 council seats tonight.
Their position looks vulnerable in them.0 -
Man U
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If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/7029224520500551680 -
Man U new favourites 0
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Wisconsin general election
Clinton 47
Trump 37
Clinton 43
Cruz 43
Clinton 44
Rubio 43
Sanders 54
Trump 34
Sanders 53
Cruz 35
Sanders 53
Rubio 35
http://fox6now.com/2016/02/25/new-marquette-university-law-school-poll/0 -
It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?0
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I think it is pretty impossible actually, that's why I didn't want Cameron to win a majority, and thought Nabavi was insane to recommend people who wanted to leave the EU voted for himPhilip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.
The "UKIP" vote is far bigger than 13% though.. many people who would have voted UKIP had a Miliband govt been a non runner voted Tory, as Cameroons who champion the Salmond/Miliband ad will tell you0 -
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
Vanilla messaged you.Philip_Thompson said:It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?
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From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.Philip_Thompson said:It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?
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Of course if Midtylland get one more then ManUre will need three more to go through.Ave_it said:Man U new favourites
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forensic dissectionPolruan said:
From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.Philip_Thompson said:It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?
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http://www.amazon.co.uk/Wilson-NFL-Micro-American-Football/dp/B00YCIFOCK#featureBulletsAndDetailBullets_secondary_view_div_1456433045686Philip_Thompson said:It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?
136mm x 90mm, apparently.0 -
Interesting set of candidates in the Studley by election .
The Independent candidate , Nick Moon , is the previous Conservative councillor for the ward who resigned because he was too busy to do the job as a councillor . He objected to the Conservatives being unable to find a Conservative to stand as his replacwmwnt . Instead they chose Paul Beaman , the Lib Dem candidate last May and a former Lib Dem councillor for the former combined Studley ward .He is also chairman of Studley P C which is another source of friction between himself and Mr Moon .
The Lib Dem candidate is Hazel Wright , another former Lib Dem councillor for the former Studley ward who narrowly lost in the new Studley with Mappleborough ward last May .0 -
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.HYUFD said:
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
I think that's fair.HYUFD said:
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Herrera FGS 14/1 is a good bet0 -
Why is it an amazing quote? What's wrong with wanting to uproot the US establishment?Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/7029224520500551680 -
That's not so far from where I live.MarkSenior said:Interesting set of candidates in the Studley by election .
The Independent candidate , Nick Moon , is the previous Conservative councillor for the ward who resigned because he was too busy to do the job as a councillor . He objected to the Conservatives being unable to find a Conservative to stand as his replacwmwnt . Instead they chose Paul Beaman , the Lib Dem candidate last May and a former Lib Dem councillor for the former combined Studley ward .He is also chairman of Studley P C which is another source of friction between himself and Mr Moon .
The Lib Dem candidate is Hazel Wright , another former Lib Dem councillor for the former Studley ward who narrowly lost in the new Studley with Mappleborough ward last May .
I love the bedroom-farce-like drama of local elections.0 -
MATA = LEAVE 0
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On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...0 -
Indeed, so they cancel each other outWanderer said:
Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.HYUFD said:
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
Yes, that is how it looksCasino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.HYUFD said:
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
0
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What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...0 -
Today yes. But Remain is relentlessly campaigning to convince certain voters. Leave so far (and especially GO/Farage/isam version of Leave) is preferring to ignore certain voters and try and convince non-voters.Wanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.
Those two campaigning techniques have been tried and tested to death. Only one of those tried and tested techniques works, campaign to certain voters. Appeal to non-voters too if you can, but be unrelentingly positive to those who vote.
If Leave target non-voters and Remain target voters then it will be an AV ref/1975 ref style of landslide victory for Remain.0 -
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You have done very well.Pulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.
Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.0 -
Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!Ave_it said:MATA = LEAVE
0 -
My "regular savers" should be available before long.Casino_Royale said:
You have done very well.Pulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.
Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.0 -
I see what you mean. Yes, Remain is campaigning with far better focus. I don't think it's a sure thing though because:Philip_Thompson said:
Today yes. But Remain is relentlessly campaigning to convince certain voters. Leave so far (and especially GO/Farage/isam version of Leave) is preferring to ignore certain voters and try and convince non-voters.Wanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.
Those two campaigning techniques have been tried and tested to death. Only one of those tried and tested techniques works, campaign to certain voters. Appeal to non-voters too if you can, but be unrelentingly positive to those who vote.
If Leave target non-voters and Remain target voters then it will be an AV ref/1975 ref style of landslide victory for Remain.
There's a long-standing underlying dislike of the EU in the population
Leave might get its act together (tbh I think this is a tiny risk)
Random events are far more likely to favour Leave than Remain0 -
As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.Pulpstar said:
My "regular savers" should be available before long.Casino_Royale said:
You have done very well.Pulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.
Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.0 -
FWIW, my prediction is the final Tory split will be 184 Remain to 146 Leave:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551
So 44% of the Tory parliamentary party voting for Leave.
I think that's bad for UKIP, and for the Leadership.0 -
FPT -
TCPoliticalBetting said:
» show previous quotes
I wonder if an organisation such as Migration Watch have a bombshell of a report yet to come out into the effects of immigration on pay rates and housing costs?
Or on schools,in bradford the schools are in crisis with population increase and migration from Easern Europe.
The leave camp should be hitting home on this and things you have pointed out from around the country.
Quality of life for people is a Big issue.
District expected to need 40,000 extra places by 2020
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/8457301.Crisis_looms_over_Bradford_school_places_shortage/#comments-anchor
Plans to ease pressure on some school rolls set to be agreed by Bradford councillors
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/14249251.Plans_to_ease_pressure_on_some_school_rolls_set_to_be_agreed_by_Bradford_councillors/#comments-anchor0 -
Cameron - hero on Europe!Casino_Royale said:
Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!Ave_it said:MATA = LEAVE
Next stop - kick out Osborne!
#handsoffthepension
0 -
So your on the remain side ?Ave_it said:
Cameron - hero on Europe!Casino_Royale said:
Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!Ave_it said:MATA = LEAVE
Next stop - kick out Osborne!
#handsoffthepension0 -
Thats my normal stakes, but my POTUS book has sort of grown to be a bit of a monster.Wanderer said:
As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.Pulpstar said:
My "regular savers" should be available before long.Casino_Royale said:
You have done very well.Pulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.
Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.0 -
Of course!Tykejohnno said:
So your on the remain side ?Ave_it said:
Cameron - hero on Europe!Casino_Royale said:
Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!Ave_it said:MATA = LEAVE
Next stop - kick out Osborne!
#handsoffthepension0 -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html
Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.0 -
About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUSPulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...
What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.
"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."
"Oh, yeah..."
"Oh, yeah..."
Anyone give me odds? (^_-)0 -
Agree with the second bit!Ave_it said:
Cameron - hero on Europe!Casino_Royale said:
Oi, I want the real Ave It back who isn't afraid of Con Gain the UK from the EU!Ave_it said:MATA = LEAVE
Next stop - kick out Osborne!
#handsoffthepension0 -
I will believe it when I see it:taffys said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html
Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.in response to the series of Asian sex abuse gangs uncovered in towns across the country in recent years – there is likely to be an “acceleration of passport strike-outs and potential deportations”.
0 -
-
I assumed they were British born of Pakistani heritagetaffys said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html
Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.0 -
I find Jesse Norman's position interesting. He seems the only Tory MP to have made a virtue out of staying on the fence.
I can't help but remember this tip, from the man who tipped Cameron right back in 2003:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/could-jesse-norman-be-the-next-tory-leader/0 -
Trump is building up his GE campaign:
Robert Costa @costareports 23h23 hours ago
.@WilliamJBennett spoke by phone with Trump today, tells WaPo that call was coordinated by casino magnate Steve Wynn, a mutual friend.
Robert Costa @costareports 23h23 hours ago
Bennett & Trump don't agree on Common Core. But Bennett, a fmr drug czar, said they did discuss heroin epidemic. Called DT "tough" on issue
And a pointer for the VP place:
Robert Costa @costareports 20m20 minutes ago
Sarah Huckabee is joining the Trump campaign as a senior adviser... she managed her father's bid, is close w/ conservative leaders0 -
isam said:
I assumed they were British born of Pakistani heritage</blockquotetaffys said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/asian-sex-abusers-to-be-stripped-of-uk-citizenship-and-deported-a6896051.html
Off topic a bit, but apposite to discussions we've had on here many times.
Me too but it would appear not. There could be many deportations, if the article is correct, as these are not Brit born citizens in many cases.0 -
I'm wondering if the State of the Union will be extemporised when Trump is PresidentRodCrosby said:
About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUSPulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...
What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.
"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."
"Oh, yeah..."
"Oh, yeah..."
Anyone give me odds? (^_-)0 -
600 (once commission is taken out) nom / 500 presidencyPulpstar said:
Thats my normal stakes, but my POTUS book has sort of grown to be a bit of a monster.Wanderer said:
As a small-timer I will make £200 on Trump nomination and £400 if he wins the Presidency. I will be annoyed if he dies.Pulpstar said:
My "regular savers" should be available before long.Casino_Royale said:
You have done very well.Pulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
I make £700 on the presidency and £300 on the nomination right now if Trump wins.
Trouble is, I will need to extract some of that cash well before November.0 -
#rashford saves van gaal0
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I said earlier in the week, I find it very surprising many more aren't saying "no bet"... having an opinion on everything esp at small margins, must be a sign of weaknessCasino_Royale said:I find Jesse Norman's position interesting. He seems the only Tory MP to have made a virtue out of staying on the fence.
I can't help but remember this tip, from the man who tipped Cameron right back in 2003:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/01/could-jesse-norman-be-the-next-tory-leader/0 -
I heard he's having his inauguration on the roof of Trump Tower in Vegas.rcs1000 said:
I'm wondering if the State of the Union will be extemporised when Trump is PresidentRodCrosby said:
About £1.5k @ 2.1 for the nom, £3.5k @ 6.2 for POTUSPulpstar said:
What was your bet £3000 on Trump @ 6.8 ?RodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
If Trump wins, I'll win £2.2k overall !
Your confidence persuades me my book is in the right area...
What I'm really looking forward to, of course, is Trump's inauguration speech.
"Forget that other guy. You know, he never really was president..."
"Oh, yeah..."
"Oh, yeah..."
Anyone give me odds? (^_-)
Being sworn in by Sherriff Joe Arpaio...
0 -
50+ is probably the tipping point at which Leave begins to outnumber Remain.HYUFD said:
Indeed, so they cancel each other outWanderer said:
Depends on whether one slices by age or socio-economic status doesn't it? Remain leads with ABs, Leave with >65s.HYUFD said:
Remain does best with probably vote and 50-50 and maybe vote groups, Leave with certain to votes and definitely won't wotesWanderer said:
Hang on here. Leave has the best polling with certain voters doesn't it? It's Remain that leads with low turnout groups.Philip_Thompson said:
If your conclusion is right then Remain is the best bet guaranteed. When was the last election won by non-voters?isam said:
Then backing REMAIN is the best bet ever, because the only way we will LEAVE is to get the non politically inclined to votePhilip_Thompson said:FPT
Yes and that's why unless Leave get their act in gear he will win. He's not doing it by accident, he's doing it because it works.Wanderer said:
That's what Cameron is doing isn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
I think Remain need to work on swing voters too. Your pension is safer, the economy is safer, the country is safer. All tried and tested lines that work on voters.Sean_F said:
In this case, you're correct. Leave have to focus on swing voters. Remain have to focus on non-voters. Leave voters are already more motivated than Remain voters.Philip_Thompson said:
That can work in a by election. Good luck getting daytime drinkers out nationally in a referendum.isam said:Frinton (the posh/politically engaged part) was 55/45 UKIP/Tory, Jaywick (a glorified trailer park) was UKIP or not voting
Farage was trapsing around Jaywick on the day of the vote (maybe should've been in Heywood and Middleton)getting the unemployed/daytime drinker vote
If you can convince swing voters who actually turnout to vote for you then you win.
If you concentrate solely on non voters you have as much chance of winning as Corbyn.
Appealing to "daytime drinkers" won't.
Alternatively Leave can win by convincing voters in their cause. It's far from impossible.0 -
0
-
This is all a bit ridiculous;
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers
0 -
AarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhPong said:This is all a bit ridiculous;
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers0 -
We're on at 1,000/1, aren't we? ;-)Pulpstar said:
AarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhPong said:This is all a bit ridiculous;
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers0 -
Trick question. They don't say which year...Pong said:This is all a bit ridiculous;
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers0 -
#RASHFORD0
-
Return of the Jeb!iPulpstar said:
AarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhPong said:This is all a bit ridiculous;
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers0 -
Rubio last matched now at 4.5
If you ever wanted to see a heart over head battle or hope over expectation then Rubio's price is the thing to watch.
Over/Under on his price Super Tuesday morning?
Over/Under on his price by Wednesday mid-day?0 -
When Trump pivots to fight the general this is the kind of thing he will start talking about, his regular old run of the mill fight against institutional racism and anti-semitism in Florida
http://spectator.org/articles/64643/when-trump-fought-racists
0 -
Speaking of voting, I did vote down at a polling station today, to approve plans for our local neighbourhood plan over the next x years. On asking how turnout had been when voting this evening at the polling station, the clerk replied 'depends on what you mean by a good turnout' in a pretty despondent manner!0
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Still green on Jeb0
-
Trump going up and up in Georgia:
Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583
If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.
I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.0 -
Looks a bit of an outlier, tbh.Speedy said:Trump going up and up in Georgia:
Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583
If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.
I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.0 -
Disgraceful cover up by Dame Janet Smith today and £10 million pi$$ed up the wall on a useless junk report. If anyone believes that senior management knew nothing about the abuse going on at the BBC in the 1970's then they need their ar*es kicking. The report simply isn't worth the paper its written on.
And you only need to look at all the suspicious deaths of people connected with the BBC - Jill Dando, Rik Mayall, Mike Smith, Peaches Geldof, Kristian Digby, Natasha Collins, Kevin Greening, Paula Yates to name but a few - I could write a lot more but this is an utterly rotten organisation that I simply try to avoid at all costs.
And then we have the total disgrace of Tony Blackburn thrown to the wolves today - the whole thing makes my blood boil. The clock is ticking on this, its just a matter of time before the truth of the filthy corrupt BBC is revealed for all to see.0 -
I think this is the 3rd Georgia poll with Trump over 40.RodCrosby said:
Looks a bit of an outlier, tbh.Speedy said:Trump going up and up in Georgia:
Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583
If the debate doesn't stop his momentum, he's going to clock 50+ in some S.Tuesday states.
With early voting going on for weeks now it looks pretty difficult that Trump manages to lose anything but Texas on Tuesday.
I will as usual live comment on the GOP debate on PB.
My guess is that Cruz and Rubio will desperately try to hang on during the debate, it will be interesting to see how the moderators handle it.
Second one today with Trump over 40.
Also it has that 58% of voters that already voted go for Trump (14% of votes), early voting has started a long time there.
0 -
@Cyclefree
Saw your Carsten news earlier. Depressing. He's already said to Frankfurt that "no power or jobs will leave Frankfurt". Sometimes I think our government should take strategic stakes in companies with a role of national significance. The French don't do everything wrong...
@Cyclefree @rcs1000
Are either of you going to the City for Britain launch at CMC on Monday evening?0 -
Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.0
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That Jeb 5% market is hilarious. It's betting on a Real Clear technicality now.0
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About 2 fists I think.Polruan said:
From the context we can deduce it is both smaller than a football (presumably a rugby ball-shaped thing) yet larger than one would reasonably conceive possible for a belt buckle.Philip_Thompson said:It is amazing, what on earth does "the size of a miniature football" even mean?
0 -
LEAVE in SilencePhilip_Thompson said:First like Remain.
What can I say?
I don't wanna play any more
What can I say?
I'm heading for the door
I can't stand this emotional violence
LEAVE in silence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q0 -
I might leave my voting till very late in the EU referendum, will mean I can gauge turnout for y'all.0
-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.htmlRodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view0 -
Trump now 3/1 to be POTUS with Betfair:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1073734190 -
Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
https://twitter.com/Vote_LeaveMedia/status/702977561421352960
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/7029775264660152330 -
He's thinking what we're thinkingHYUFD said:Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
https://twitter.com/Vote_LeaveMedia/status/702977561421352960
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/702977526466015233
0 -
If anyone is interested in the wonders of local democracy:
http://www.cheshirewestandchester.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/205965
2hrs and 50 minutes into tonights council meeting... You get to see what happens when the chairman/mayor/speaker of a chamber is working in cahoots with the Executive authority... but comes up against someone who wont stand for it.
Essentially there was a list of people wishing to speak, the chairman allowed a guillotine motion which is supposed to be allowed only after all points have been aired. There were over twenty people still wishing to speak..
Quite extraordinary behaviour by the chairman...
By the way, this is as exciting as it gets for local government.0 -
They were like the 'babes' tonight. So many young players coming through and what a performance by MemphisDavidL said:Blimey I barely knew half that team by the end. The injury situation is ridiculous. But hey. Young players coming through is what United is all about.
0 -
Well that's sweet!Charles said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3463915/Trump-97-percent-chance-beating-Hillary-Clinton-general-election-says-college-professor-certain-Donald-U-S-president.htmlRodCrosby said:
On the betting (as a numbers guy the figures others quote seem to give me a headache. I confess to not fully understanding them.)Speedy said:This is an amazing quote:
https://twitter.com/samueld_james/status/702922452050055168
I could cash out for £2k now.
That figure will almost certainly rise.
If Donald becomes POTUS I'm +£20k
I may load up some more...
Just for you - Prof. Norpoth's view
What a coincidence. I knew he tipped the GOP about 3 years ago.
But 97%?
Gulp...0 -
Four state polls out today with Trump over 40%, looking pretty unstoppable.0
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I never thought I'd say this but an intervention by John Major must be the most valuable political currency in the land at the moment.HYUFD said:Lord Howard, the former Tory leader, comes out for Leave
0 -
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Is there a pensions story in the Express tomorrow?
#handsoffourpensions
#makeosborneleavenow0 -
Election night is about to get underway — in Jamaica:
http://jamaica-elections.com/general/2016/videos/view.php?id=3490 -
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
Over the past five years 2.25m EU nationals registered for NI number. But official figures show only 1m EU migrants over same period.0
This discussion has been closed.