politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the phone polls have got this right Dave’s more in tune
Comments
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Is there a schedule/calendar being maintained somewhere of upcoming eu ref polls?0
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I hope so. As Confucius said "For a man with no destination no wind is favourable"CarlottaVance said:
Thanks. Had a useful summary of potential BREXIT scenarios:Richard_Nabavi said:
Brexit scenarios
It is often assumed that in the event of Brexit, the UK could choose to be like Norway, Switzerland or Turkey; in Europe but not in the EU. However, these countries have never been in the EU - there is no historical precedent for a country leaving.
European Economic Area
The Norway option. The EEA is a free trade area comprising the EU, Norway, Lichtenstein and Iceland.
Pros: Direct contribution to the EU would fall by around 17%.
Cons: UK would still be subject to EU regulations but would lose its seat at the negotiating table.
European Free Trade Association
The Switzerland option. As above but EFTA also includes Switzerland.
Pros: not subject to EU regulations, budget contribution falls by c.60%.
Cons: would need to negotiate bilateral agreements to access the single market in specific sectors.
Customs union
The Turkey option.
Pros: retain some benefits of membership, mostly with respect to trade in goods.
Cons: outside the single market, with a very severe impact on services sector.
There are many other options – the UK could set up its own free trade agreements with the EU and other nations, or simply rely on the World Trade Organisation’s ‘most favoured nation’ status, under which it would be free to set its own terms of trade.
Have any of the LEAVE campaigns proposed a particular version?0 -
He may well have talked to a lawyer or two before he came on, possibly even one wrote him a briefMaxPB said:I don't understand Gove's intervention today, he is not a lawyer let alone an international treaty law expert. I'm of the opinion that Dave's agreement isn't as legally binding as he thinks and the EC will just throw it in the bin (other than the bits they like such as taking back our EMU regulation opt-out) after a Remain vote. The government will take it to court and the political ECJ will vote in the EC's favour. If he wants to argue that the EC/EU are not trustworthy then that's fine, but pretending to be a legal expert is a poor idea.
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Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX0 -
Pippa Creaer
Not quite Zac's £10 million in 5 years but Sadiq Khan has published his tax return - took home £300k over same time. https://t.co/nl0ZDaxSMw0 -
General Election
Lincoln County which includes Area 51 (Nevada Republican nominations)
@tedcruz 44.56%
@realDonaldTrump 28.77%
@marcorubio 16.14%0 -
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX0 -
>*Trump's numbers rise*TheScreamingEagles said:
Scandal.Wanderer said:So what scenarios remain in which Trump doesn't get the nomination?
The biggest risk would be a health scare, I think.
Caught snorting coke from a transsexual hooker's boobs wearing a Hillary Clinton face mask. That sort of thing.0 -
Mr. Indigo, I don't believe Balls is a native of these parts, though. Could be wrong.0
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Cruz is polling quite well in Texas.Indigo said:
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Rubio looks like he will get trounced in Florida.
It's looking worse for Rubio on this measure.0 -
It doesn't seem like it given the raft of legal opinion that has come out against his intervention.Indigo said:
He may well have talked to a lawyer or two before he came on, possibly even one wrote him a briefMaxPB said:I don't understand Gove's intervention today, he is not a lawyer let alone an international treaty law expert. I'm of the opinion that Dave's agreement isn't as legally binding as he thinks and the EC will just throw it in the bin (other than the bits they like such as taking back our EMU regulation opt-out) after a Remain vote. The government will take it to court and the political ECJ will vote in the EC's favour. If he wants to argue that the EC/EU are not trustworthy then that's fine, but pretending to be a legal expert is a poor idea.
The other problem is that he has ended up looking foolish when he could have made the very real point about how dangerous the ECJ is to UK intentions and the rule of law.0 -
Not yet. I think we'll have a firmer schedule soonStereotomy said:Is there a schedule/calendar being maintained somewhere of upcoming eu ref polls?
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Yes that is a possibility.Theuniondivvie said:
>*Trump's numbers rise*TheScreamingEagles said:
Scandal.Wanderer said:So what scenarios remain in which Trump doesn't get the nomination?
The biggest risk would be a health scare, I think.
Caught snorting coke from a transsexual hooker's boobs wearing a Hillary Clinton face mask. That sort of thing.
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She's coping with the pressure, via extra biscuits.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX0 -
Can this site's many polling experts clarify a few things about this latest ComRes poll please?
It lists 1,000 weighted and unweighted respondents. For the key 65+ age group, the unweighted 254 is changed with weighting to 222 whereas in the much less likely to vote group of 18-25 the unweighted number rises from 86 to 114 with weighting.
Qn1: Is this a fair way to weight when the number of voters that will actually vote in the of 65+ age range is many times that in the 18-25?
Qn2: In the ratings for Certainty to Vote ( 9 and 10) the 18-25 certainty is 63% and the 65+ is 76%. This again seems to be out of line with the known reality on which types of voters, by age, will actually vote. Is it?
Qn3 The certainty to vote (10 rating) has Conservative voters with the 10 rating as less likely to vote than every party except the Greens...... Table 2/2 Shurely inaccurate?0 -
I still remain amazed Jeb! spent so much money and got so few votes. It's eye-watering conversion rate.Indigo said:
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX0 -
The Conservatives should start talking about introducing a poll tax again so that potential Labour supporters will avoid registering to vote and being liable for poll tax.TGOHF said:
(Assuming that Labour supporters are more likely to avoid tax at present by having little declared income but would be caught by a poll tax if they register)0 -
A Cuban minced in Florida takes some going.Pulpstar said:
Cruz is polling quite well in Texas.Indigo said:
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Rubio looks like he will get trounced in Florida.
It's looking worse for Rubio on this measure.0 -
Mincing oooh arrr, mother?Plato_Says said:A Cuban minced in Florida takes some going.
Pulpstar said:
Cruz is polling quite well in Texas.Indigo said:
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Rubio looks like he will get trounced in Florida.
It's looking worse for Rubio on this measure.
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Cologne attacks: Most suspects 'may never be caught'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35647308
It does amaze me given the quality of the cameras on our tiny smart phones are these days, just how crap most CCTV is.
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Since we have been talked about U and no-U today, how would @antifrank classify this [the link says it all]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3460930/Nobles-gone-wild-moment-Princess-Countess-took-topless-sword-fight-settle-dispute-flowers-1892-detailed-fascinating-video-duels.html0 -
Joshua Rozenberg
Here’s a very detailed academic view of what’s binding in the EU deal: https://t.co/T8tjb5GLdB Thanks to @ObiterJ for alerting me to it.0 -
BBC employees now writing Jahadi Jez's PMQ's....I wonder where that is in the impartiality handbook?
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/corbyns-pmqs-ammo-from-bbc/0 -
I don't know what it would take to get Cruz to pull out anyway. If he falls, and Rubio starts doing well enough to win the odd state, Cruz will want to stay in for leverage at the presumed convention. What bauble could Rubio plausibly promise him?Pulpstar said:
If Trump has any sense, he'll hold it to the one rally in Texas.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Bear in mind Texas is already voting. The last thing Trump wants to do is actually win Texas. His best result is to get 30% or some such there with Cruz on ~ 35.0 -
I suppose my confusion is that you ever expected anything else from the Mail. The Express is forthright in being anti EU but never really strikes me as vindictive, just shallow. I wouldn't call it nasty. The Mail on the other hand does seem to gave an infinite capacity for being truly malicious and vindictive which seems to stem from a zealous moral certainty that is about a century out of date.perdix said:
Agree with you on puzzles. Yes if you just read a headline you will not find a kernel of truth until you read the last line of the text. A disgrace to journalism. No wonder Cam is thought to believe that Editor Dacre is unfit to be a peer - much to Dacre's annoyance.Big_G_NorthWales said:The Daily Mail has lost all pretense to provide a sensible narrative of the referendum debate and arguably are more extreme in their hatred of those who support remain than even the daily express. For those of us who are seeking a persuasive case to leave it is just a turn off and it would be interesting if the Daily Mail will see a reduction in it's sales until post the referendum. I would cancel it and read it on line but my wife loves the puzzles so it will still be delivered but left unread by myself
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Really? It is so vague as to make one wonder about dirty tricks from the anti-Mak cabal (assuming this bloke I can't be bothered to google is important enough to have enemies). Mak would not be in a position to know, so the best spin on it is that someone posed the question to a junior whip or maybe even Cameron's PPS and got the standard, non-committal answer that "X will be seriously considered".Richard_Nabavi said:
Probably the source is someone whose first name is Alan and whose surname has three letters...Plato_Says said:Sam Coates
Good news. I'm told by a source in a position to know that Alan Mak will be given serious consideration for preferment at the next reshuffle0 -
Corbyn’s PMQs Ammo From BBC
At the last PMQs Jeremy Corbyn asked a question from “Rosie“, a fan of the Labour leader who opposes the government on housing. Afterwards, Rosie wrote on her Facebook about why she prefers Jezza to Dave. There are some choice words for the PM...
It will come as absolutely no surprise to readers that Rosie in fact works for the BBC:FrancisUrquhart said:BBC employees now writing Jadahi Jez's PMQ's....I wonder where that is in the impartiality handbook?
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/corbyns-pmqs-ammo-from-bbc/0 -
Interesting. Jesse Norman has publicly declared neutrality:
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/is-jesse-a-burkean/0 -
That fence sitting must be killing him.Casino_Royale said:Interesting. Jesse Norman has publicly declared neutrality:
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/is-jesse-a-burkean/0 -
If you apply turnout from the GE to the age groups and their relative proportion of the population 65 plus should be at least three times the size of 18-24.TCPoliticalBetting said:Can this site's many polling experts clarify a few things about this latest ComRes poll please?
It lists 1,000 weighted and unweighted respondents. For the key 65+ age group, the unweighted 254 is changed with weighting to 222 whereas in the much less likely to vote group of 18-25 the unweighted number rises from 86 to 114 with weighting.
Qn1: Is this a fair way to weight when the number of voters that will actually vote in the of 65+ age range is many times that in the 18-25?
Qn2: In the ratings for Certainty to Vote ( 9 and 10) the 18-25 certainty is 63% and the 65+ is 76%. This again seems to be out of line with the known reality on which types of voters, by age, will actually vote. Is it?
Qn3 The certainty to vote (10 rating) has Conservative voters with the 10 rating as less likely to vote than every party except the Greens...... Table 2/2 Shurely inaccurate?0 -
When do you think he will pull out, if at all?Pulpstar said:
Cruz is polling quite well in Texas.Indigo said:
Being seen to make so much effort in your home state and then losing it would be terminal I would have thought. At least Ed Balls had the excuse of spending most of his time campaigning for other people.Pulpstar said:
Actually alot of those events are Heidi out and about. But for sure Cruz is trying to make sure of his home state.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Rubio looks like he will get trounced in Florida.
It's looking worse for Rubio on this measure.0 -
On DP the Labour peer Lord Hunt is attacking Jeremy Hunt over publishing a "6,000 excess deaths at weekend" figure fom civil servants last year rather than waiting for the real figure to come out which is 11,000....0
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@JoshuaRosenberg: Sounds to me as if both Michael Gove and No 10 are correct, but talking of different things.
Starting to feel like Angels on Pinheads......0 -
Both will stay in for the long-term, IMO. At least say Florida.Tissue_Price said:
I don't know what it would take to get Cruz to pull out anyway. If he falls, and Rubio starts doing well enough to win the odd state, Cruz will want to stay in for leverage at the presumed convention. What bauble could Rubio plausibly promise him?Pulpstar said:
If Trump has any sense, he'll hold it to the one rally in Texas.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Bear in mind Texas is already voting. The last thing Trump wants to do is actually win Texas. His best result is to get 30% or some such there with Cruz on ~ 35.
Could anyone copy/paste the Betfair odds atm? can't access at work.
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Even on Guido's evidence, she's nowhere near news or current affairs. This really is small earthquake in Chile stuff, even by Guido's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC employees now writing Jahadi Jez's PMQ's....I wonder where that is in the impartiality handbook?
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/corbyns-pmqs-ammo-from-bbc/
There is a serious question here or hereabouts since some companies have taken action against employees for social media posts on their private accounts, but I'd be surprised if there is a BBC-wide ban on writing to MPs, even if there should be one on tweeting about it afterwards.0 -
They're near enough the same age and ideologically almost identical (Rubio more Neocon on foreign policy, Cruz more rightwing on immigration). Vice presidency maybe ?Tissue_Price said:
I don't know what it would take to get Cruz to pull out anyway. If he falls, and Rubio starts doing well enough to win the odd state, Cruz will want to stay in for leverage at the presumed convention. What bauble could Rubio plausibly promise him?Pulpstar said:
If Trump has any sense, he'll hold it to the one rally in Texas.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Bear in mind Texas is already voting. The last thing Trump wants to do is actually win Texas. His best result is to get 30% or some such there with Cruz on ~ 35.
But Cruz would want Rubio to be his VP. If Cruz takes Texas and Rubio fails to hold Florida then that's the final nail in Rubio's coffin. If Cruz fails to take Texas the coffin may have a peep I guess.0 -
Victorian ladies sure took their flower arranging seriously. Constance Spry would not approve.Charles said:Since we have been talked about U and no-U today, how would @antifrank classify this [the link says it all]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3460930/Nobles-gone-wild-moment-Princess-Countess-took-topless-sword-fight-settle-dispute-flowers-1892-detailed-fascinating-video-duels.html0 -
The case for doing it this way is that if one both asks for certainty to vote, wieghts for that, and then also weights for demographic tendency, there is a serious risk of double-counting. The case against doing it this way is that people may underestimate, or more likely overestimate, their certainty to vote. What we don't know is whether the visible increase in engagement among younger voters will translate into a change of behaviour, as it has in the US, where Sanders has surprisingly got a lot of youngsters out.TCPoliticalBetting said:Can this site's many polling experts clarify a few things about this latest ComRes poll please?
It lists 1,000 weighted and unweighted respondents. For the key 65+ age group, the unweighted 254 is changed with weighting to 222 whereas in the much less likely to vote group of 18-25 the unweighted number rises from 86 to 114 with weighting.
Qn1: Is this a fair way to weight when the number of voters that will actually vote in the of 65+ age range is many times that in the 18-25?
Qn2: In the ratings for Certainty to Vote ( 9 and 10) the 18-25 certainty is 63% and the 65+ is 76%. This again seems to be out of line with the known reality on which types of voters, by age, will actually vote. Is it?
Qn3 The certainty to vote (10 rating) has Conservative voters with the 10 rating as less likely to vote than every party except the Greens...... Table 2/2 Shurely inaccurate?
For what it's worth, there was a post-election survey a few years ago which mapped professed certainty to vote against actually having voted. Assuming that people were telling the truth, there was a pretty straight trend line - people who said they were sure to vote usually did (though not always), and vice versa (though not always). I think that Tory certainty to vote at the moment is depressed by annoyance over Cameron and/or recoil from the in-fighting, so the findings may not be as odd as one might think.0 -
I believe ALL BBC employees are warned about not to part take in social media activity of this nature.DecrepitJohnL said:
Even on Guido's evidence, she's nowhere near news or current affairs. This really is small earthquake in Chile stuff, even by Guido's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC employees now writing Jahadi Jez's PMQ's....I wonder where that is in the impartiality handbook?
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/corbyns-pmqs-ammo-from-bbc/
There is a serious question here or hereabouts since some companies have taken action against employees for social media posts on their private accounts, but I'd be surprised if there is a BBC-wide ban on writing to MPs, even if there should be one on tweeting about it afterwards.0 -
Peter Oborne writes a new version of his book "Guilty Men". This time he goes after the ex-eurosceptics in the cabinet. Corruscating stuff.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3461345/PETER-OBORNE-principles-PM-accuses-Boris-self-Tories-flaunted-anti-EU-views-careers-first.html0 -
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!Plato_Says said:Sam Coates
Good news. I'm told by a source in a position to know that Alan Mak will be given serious consideration for preferment at the next reshuffle0 -
New Thread0
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Sell out.Sean_F said:
I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!Plato_Says said:Sam Coates
Good news. I'm told by a source in a position to know that Alan Mak will be given serious consideration for preferment at the next reshuffle0 -
POTUS:TheWhiteRabbit said:
Both will stay in for the long-term, IMO. At least say Florida.Tissue_Price said:
I don't know what it would take to get Cruz to pull out anyway. If he falls, and Rubio starts doing well enough to win the odd state, Cruz will want to stay in for leverage at the presumed convention. What bauble could Rubio plausibly promise him?Pulpstar said:
If Trump has any sense, he'll hold it to the one rally in Texas.Tissue_Price said:
God, that's pretty desperate for Cruz. The idea is usually that you don't need to campaign in your home state!Pulpstar said:Candidate schedules to the 27th:
Trump: VA, TX, OK, AR, TN
Rubio: TX, TX, OK, GA
Cruz: TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX, TX
Bear in mind Texas is already voting. The last thing Trump wants to do is actually win Texas. His best result is to get 30% or some such there with Cruz on ~ 35.
Could anyone copy/paste the Betfair odds atm? can't access at work.
HRC 1.86/1.87
Sanders 16.5/17.5
GOP:
Trump 1.525/Rubi Oh 3.4 making up 95% of the market.
Rest any price you like.0 -
Constance Spry sounds like a porn name in a gentleman's periodical.SimonStClare said:
Victorian ladies sure took their flower arranging seriously. Constance Spry would not approve.Charles said:Since we have been talked about U and no-U today, how would @antifrank classify this [the link says it all]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3460930/Nobles-gone-wild-moment-Princess-Countess-took-topless-sword-fight-settle-dispute-flowers-1892-detailed-fascinating-video-duels.html0 -
It's a good joke.AlastairMeeks said:
And who says that treason never prospers?Plato_Says said:Sam Coates
Good news. I'm told by a source in a position to know that Alan Mak will be given serious consideration for preferment at the next reshuffle
[I fear that my joke will be treated literally by some]0 -
Yes, but as I replied, one of the two had a LibDem intervention with a popular local candidate which split the non-Tory vote down the middle (they hadn't stood there last time). It's difficult to generalise from local results, but I'd say the Broxtowe position is currently much like the General Election.rottenborough said:
Hmm. As I pointed out last week, two by-elections in Broxtowe showed a 3% swing from Labour to Tory in this key marginal seat.0 -
Andrew Neil back and fired up. Tearing apart General Boles on DP today about EC law and immigration.0
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Fair enough I'd say... If an MP (or voter) was any less than 53-54% certain either way I think they should note campaign it vote either wayCasino_Royale said:Interesting. Jesse Norman has publicly declared neutrality:
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/is-jesse-a-burkean/
If you make something 53% you don't commit to going all in at Even money.
I'm surprised there aren't more fence sitters (used as an insult, but actually a valid position), and think that the overwhelming proportion of 'don't knows' will break for 'stay at home'0 -
Gisela Stuart giving Nick Boles a lesson on EU workings on the Daily Politics0
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merdeTGOHF said:
What about Reporting Scotland ?malcolmg said:
Why, at present you have to wait till late at night to get any Scottish news. People here would like to here news with relevance to Scotland rather than just the limited London viewpoint. BBC news is pants.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Plato, that's an interesting observation.
Speaking of Englishness, or lack thereof, read in the Mail the other day the BBC are thinking of having separate news for Scotland at six. Seems crackers to me.
People want a Scottish news service and we pay plenty and don't get it.0 -
