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Comments
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Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
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But when oils goes back up to $100 a barrel...Philip_Thompson said:
Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.flightpath01 said:
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.Mortimer said:
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.williamglenn said:
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.Mortimer said:
Unreal.hunchman said:
See the article I've just posted.Mortimer said:
Why would it be delicious?hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
What makes you think it will happen?
It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
Not least the millions of tourists to the US....
Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....
Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars
I.e. Almost everyone.0 -
I can't imagine anyone has no opinion either way. I'm not torn due to no opinion I'm torn due to opinions both ways.isam said:
Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
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I thought that that was going to be an Allister Heath article........but that chap has got a good handle on where things are going.Tykejohnno said:Britain should vote for Brexit before the inevitable Eurozone meltdown
http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown0 -
£ will recover before oil recovers. Besides most of our price is still taxes anyway.not_on_fire said:
But when oils goes back up to $100 a barrel...Philip_Thompson said:
Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.flightpath01 said:
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.Mortimer said:
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.williamglenn said:
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.Mortimer said:
Unreal.hunchman said:
See the article I've just posted.Mortimer said:
Why would it be delicious?hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
What makes you think it will happen?
It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
Not least the millions of tourists to the US....
Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....
Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars
I.e. Almost everyone.0 -
Of course Dave is not a bad negotiator. But this has to be the mantra of the Leavers. They have nowhere to Leave to and can only turn their campaign onto attacking him. You get the feeling this is all Leave live for for some reason and the EU is the McGuffin in the plot to keep the it boiling.JonathanD said:Pulpstar said:Daves' sins really pale in comparison to Blair's tbh.
OK He's no good at negotiating, but he's delivered the referendum on Europe the Tory party has wanted for ages. He's great at selling his product, that's his real strength.
Is there any evidence that he is a bad negotiator though? The trick with the EU seems to get an initial change / reform and then spend the next 10 years exploiting that and moving things the way you want them to go - the EU has a huge inertia but once you've started it moving the way you want...0 -
Too late at night for such pinnicity ness, you know what I mean. If people are torn between two valid arguments, and are happy with either outcome, I don't see why they would votePhilip_Thompson said:
I can't imagine anyone has no opinion either way. I'm not torn due to no opinion I'm torn due to opinions both ways.isam said:
Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
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One of the new toads,a life long Euro-Sceptic apparently.
Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Alan Mak MP (elected 2015) declares himself a "lifelong Eurosceptic" for staying in EU with May, Fallon and Javid
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The PP will tacitly support PSOE + C, I've heard.SouthamObserver said:A deal between PSOE and Ciudadanos in Spain is getting close:
http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/23/inenglish/1456239641_874291.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM
It will lead to PSOE's Pedro Sanchez becoming PM, if PP and/or Podemos abstain in the investiture vote in the Cortes. It is likely at least one of them will.
This could be incredibly bullish for Spain over the next couple of years.0 -
The polls were way out last year for GE2015 - why should these EU polls be any different?0
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Seems to me that it is the Remain campaign doing the attacking with Project Fear and Get Boris, might be a good idea if they came up with something positive instead of scaremongering.flightpath01 said:
Of course Dave is not a bad negotiator. But this has to be the mantra of the Leavers. They have nowhere to Leave to and can only turn their campaign onto attacking him. You get the feeling this is all Leave live for for some reason and the EU is the McGuffin in the plot to keep the it boiling.JonathanD said:Pulpstar said:Daves' sins really pale in comparison to Blair's tbh.
OK He's no good at negotiating, but he's delivered the referendum on Europe the Tory party has wanted for ages. He's great at selling his product, that's his real strength.
Is there any evidence that he is a bad negotiator though? The trick with the EU seems to get an initial change / reform and then spend the next 10 years exploiting that and moving things the way you want them to go - the EU has a huge inertia but once you've started it moving the way you want...
In the interim I can think of 11 billion reasons to leave.0 -
Negative campaigning works. As I have constantly said, 'Leave' need to fight fear with fear. They need to frame 'Remain' as a POSITIVE COMMITMENT to the EU, as a binding contract, as underwriting a loan, carrying the can etc. The fear case is just as strong against committing to continued membership as it is against leaving. The biggest thing people need to be made to fear is giving the EU a huge mandate - what if it's a walkover, what will they do then? They should be encouraged to give the EU a kicking if only to send a message that all is not well.
If fear goes both ways, at the very least weak remainers will stay at home - they have no additional reason to vote remain. Actual passionate remainers (ie Lib Dem activists) can car share on the way to the polling booth.
And bloody unite for pity's sake, surely we all want to get out of the EU enough to pretend to like each other for a couple of months.0 -
Carswell wants to join the eea? If so that really makes the vast majority of leavers into total numpties.Danny565 said:
Well, I think that depends on what you mean by not "banging on about immigration".TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one Tory that the voters like that has the economic credibility to rival Dave.Danny565 said:
I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.
The bad news for Leave is that Tory is Ken Clarke,
As Boris and the cabinet outers realise they won't win banging on about immigration but on the economy/who governs Britain
I think this Carswell/Gove idea of advocating EEA membership, where immigration would be essentially unaffected by leaving the EU, would lead to an inevitable Leave defeat. For many people, controlling immigration is the main reason for Leaving, and if that wasn't even on offer then many would ask why bother with the hassle of it. Some "make Britain like Singapore" nonsense would go down like a cup of cold sick in the working-class Labour heartlands in particular.
However, I think they can't talk just about immigration. Most people outside of a hardcore care about the economy and public services just as much, if not more than, immigration. Plus, even for many people who strongly agree with the need to control immigration levels, they (maybe hypocritically) tend to be a bit suspicious of people like the Kippers who get so zealously angry about it. I think arguing for immigration controls is necessary but not sufficient on its own for Leave.0 -
not_on_fire said:Philip_Thompson said:flightpath01 said:Mortimer said:williamglenn said:
Oil isn't going to be up at $100 any time soon. It needed the $100 oil, and peak oil at $147 in June 2008 to encourage investment in alternative energy sources. And boy was there the mother of investment in non-oil sources, a lot of it in USD that is primed to collapse with commodities at their current prices. The world has diversified away from oil now - hybrid and electric cars, renewable forms of energy albeit a lot encouraged by the misinformation on CO2 induced climate change........black gold's day in the sun has long since gone, something that the world's geopolitics are very slowly responding to.Mortimer said:
But when oils goes back up to $100 a barrel...hunchman said:
Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.Mortimer said:
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
It is true that oil has solid support levels at $25 and we'll get a counter trend rally coming up.....but that is all its going to be. Long term, the support is around $12 / $13......and we've got a long time of churning to get there before finally a new long term bullish trend can begin.0 -
At the end of the day you need to make a judgement call. Even if you can see the pros and cons of both sides you should likely have a preference.isam said:
Too late at night for such pinnicity ness, you know what I mean. If people are torn between two valid arguments, and are happy with either outcome, I don't see why they would votePhilip_Thompson said:
I can't imagine anyone has no opinion either way. I'm not torn due to no opinion I'm torn due to opinions both ways.isam said:
Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
I'd prefer the judgement of those weighing up the pros and cons than those who blindly see one side only.0 -
ABC1Danny565 said:Age 18-24
Remain 52%
Leave 17%
Age 65+
Remain 27%
Leave 55%
Remain 44%
Leave 33%
C2DE
Remain 28%
Leave 44%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf0 -
On topic:
Well, quite.
I did tell y'all that the increasingly hysterical groupthink here about the renegotiation didn't reflect how voters in general would react.
Lesson number 2: Project Fear will work, because it doesn't need to convince, only to sow doubt.0 -
At about 4:04, he says he would vote to stay in (the EU) if he got changes. At 4:25 he makes a reference to the EU which I can't make out and then says he would never join the Euro. At about 4:40 he says he would last about two hours as PM and there is more chance of being decapitated by a frisbee or reincarnated as an olive. In fairness to him, he's an entertaining interviewee.FrankBooth said:Any French speakers here? What's Boris saying? He switches between English and French but I think in the last minute he's talking about the EU.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OzSvvuCgJ4
If you're interested, there's an interesting bio of Boris here0 -
There's two sides to this of course, a cheaper pound would lead to an export led boom.Mortimer said:
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.williamglenn said:
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.Mortimer said:
Unreal.hunchman said:
See the article I've just posted.Mortimer said:
Why would it be delicious?hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
What makes you think it will happen?
It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
Not least the millions of tourists to the US....
Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....
Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars
I.e. Almost everyone.
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We are not in schengen. This is a problem a crisis but it is nothing to do with our membership of the EU. The crisis would still be there if we were not in the EU. Clearly we do not believe that schengen is essential to the running of the EU.watford30 said:Bottom right hand corner of the front page of tomorrow's Times.
'Migrant influx tops 100,000 in 6 weeks'.
Wait until the Spring and watch those numbers rocket.0 -
Has anyone dived into the internals of the YouGov and ComRes polls and worked out where the disparity is coming from?0
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I am, and so is Mike, I think that's what the morning thread will be about.DanSmith said:Has anyone dived into the internals of the YouGov and ComRes polls and worked out where the disparity is coming from?
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London
Remain 54
Leave 46
South
Remain 49
Leave 51
Midlands/Wales
Remain 45
Leave 57
North
Remain 47
Leave 53
Scotland
Remain 62
Leave 38
Tories
Remain 43
Leave 57
Labour
Remain 74
Leave 26
LD
Remain 83
Leave 17
UKIP
Remain 4
Leave 96
Other
Remain 65
Leave 35
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf
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If you are equally happy with A or B, then a vote for A or a vote for B makes A or B more probable than not voting. So voting in those circumstances is entirely valid.isam said:
Too late at night for such pinnicity ness, you know what I mean. If people are torn between two valid arguments, and are happy with either outcome, I don't see why they would votePhilip_Thompson said:
I can't imagine anyone has no opinion either way. I'm not torn due to no opinion I'm torn due to opinions both ways.isam said:
Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
[edit: unfuck smiley]0 -
Everythings fine in the EU.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects
France, Ifop poll:
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 28% ↑
Hollande (PS-S&D): 22% ↑
Sarkozy (LR-EPP): 22% ↑
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE) 18% ↑
#France #Sondage #Ifop0 -
HYUFD:
London on Remain 54/46 doesn't look right to me. I'd expect the figure to be at least 60/40.0 -
Oh, was that the time the Express and Mail were going on about the end of civilisation as we knew it, insurrection and bloody revolution? Let me think now, oh yes, it was a Labour government wasn't it? Funny that.williamglenn said:
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.Mortimer said:
Unreal.hunchman said:
See the article I've just posted.Mortimer said:
Why would it be delicious?hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
What makes you think it will happen?
It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.0 -
Hunchman / FPT:
The counting areas are districts/boroughs in England, Scotland and Wales. Northern Ireland is a single counting area, as is Gibralter.0 -
I assume the polls are wrong and that the problems that bedeviled them in 2015 will affect them even worse now. Problem is, I don't know in which direction they are wrong, nor by how much.Sunil_Prasannan said:The polls were way out last year for GE2015 - why should these EU polls be any different?
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Neck and neck between Hollande and Sarko to face Le Pen in the run-offTykejohnno said:Everythings fine in the EU.
Europe Elects @EuropeElects
France, Ifop poll:
Le Pen (FN-ENF): 28% ↑
Hollande (PS-S&D): 22% ↑
Sarkozy (LR-EPP): 22% ↑
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE) 18% ↑
#France #Sondage #Ifop0 -
One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing
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Yeah that's great logic as it also makes the other equally happy outcome less likelyviewcode said:
If you are equally happy with A or B, then a vote for A or a vote for B makes A or B more probable than not voting. So voting in those circumstances is entirely valid.isam said:
Too late at night for such pinnicity ness, you know what I mean. If people are torn between two valid arguments, and are happy with either outcome, I don't see why they would votePhilip_Thompson said:
I can't imagine anyone has no opinion either way. I'm not torn due to no opinion I'm torn due to opinions both ways.isam said:
Even if you had no opinion either way? In that circumstance it would be irresponsible to vote wouldn't it?Philip_Thompson said:
Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.isam said:If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?
[edit: unfuck smiley]
Things that are not said enough by mug punters .. 'No opinion' & 'no bet'0 -
You really are making a mountain out of a molehill. We are fully within the range the FX has bounced about in since late 2008. Interest rates haven't reacted during that time during the multiple times the rate was even lower than it is now - though what is different now is that the Fed has raised rates.viewcode said:0 -
Rod, which model are you using? Lebo and Norpoth again, or are you building your own?RodCrosby said:One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing0 -
Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters.
Why the sudden interest now. Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?0 -
Hello... We are watching the polls for Super Tuesday (and beyond), and trying to model delegate outcomes.viewcode said:
Rod, which model are you using? Lebo and Norpoth again, or are you building your own?RodCrosby said:One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing
Nothing to do with L&N.
Although N predicted a GOP win this year, FWIW.
Dunno about L...0 -
What French for cripes,huuzzaaahhh, and other Boris'isms?viewcode said:
At about 4:04, he says he would vote to stay in (the EU) if he got changes. At 4:25 he makes a reference to the EU which I can't make out and then says he would never join the Euro. At about 4:40 he says he would last about two hours as PM and there is more chance of being decapitated by a frisbee or reincarnated as an olive. In fairness to him, he's an entertaining interviewee.FrankBooth said:Any French speakers here? What's Boris saying? He switches between English and French but I think in the last minute he's talking about the EU.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OzSvvuCgJ4
If you're interested, there's an interesting bio of Boris here0 -
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters.
Why the sudden interest now. Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.0 -
Simon Richards @simplysimontfa
The men who presided over savage cuts in our armed forces want us to stay in EU: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12170890/Britain-must-stay-in-the-EU-to-protect-itself-from-Isil-former-military-chiefs-say.html …0 -
611 vs 410 for Hilary on the DEM side.viewcode said:
Rod, which model are you using? Lebo and Norpoth again, or are you building your own?RodCrosby said:One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing0 -
1986 was the only time it was at parity. I think that might have been a Tory government.OchEye said:
Oh, was that the time the Express and Mail were going on about the end of civilisation as we knew it, insurrection and bloody revolution? Let me think now, oh yes, it was a Labour government wasn't it? Funny that.williamglenn said:
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.Mortimer said:
Unreal.hunchman said:
See the article I've just posted.Mortimer said:
Why would it be delicious?hunchman said:
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!Ave_it said:
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!Scott_P said:
Not when Osborne takes over...TheScreamingEagles said:Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,
The Tories are screwed when he goes.
He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again
Time to go!
#sajid
Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
What makes you think it will happen?
It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.0 -
Significantly closer than the GOP, as previously discussed...Pulpstar said:
611 vs 410 for Hilary on the DEM side.viewcode said:
Rod, which model are you using? Lebo and Norpoth again, or are you building your own?RodCrosby said:One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing0 -
Czech Republic 'will follow Britain out of EU'
Fears of contagion as Serbia says Brexit fears mean the 'magic' has gone out of joining the European Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/czechrepublic/12170994/Czechs-will-follow-Britain-out-of-EU.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
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I'd probably expect London to be 10 points more Remain than the country as a whole, ie. 50/50 in UK would be 60/40 in London, roughly speaking.HYUFD said:
If it is 51/49 Leave as yougov has it in that poll the figure looks about right, London 60/40 Remain would suggest about 55/45 Remain UK-wideAndyJS said:HYUFD:
London on Remain 54/46 doesn't look right to me. I'd expect the figure to be at least 60/40.0 -
Tories knocking seven bells out of one another and still Corbynism is about as popular as Boris with the team at No. 10.AndyJS said:0 -
I'm going thru the YouTube copy of Boris Johnson: The Irresistible Rise. It's fascinating. Thoughts:
* He's entertaining and charming: easy to love
* His family is very nice
* He's a hell of a lot better when he's not "being Boris".
* Being Mayor of London, to a surprising degree, suited him. If he had found it within himself to settle down and focus on that, he would have been good.
* He's incredibly self-destructive. He finds an excuse to leave everything he does, and if he can't come up with one, a tragic mistake magically materialises to decide it for him.
* He really isn't Prime Ministerial material. Not even close0 -
Well with perfect PR it turns into a long grinding game of attrition, Hilary has the deck stacked in her favour with a close race though.RodCrosby said:
Significantly closer than the GOP, as previously discussed...Pulpstar said:
611 vs 410 for Hilary on the DEM side.viewcode said:
Rod, which model are you using? Lebo and Norpoth again, or are you building your own?RodCrosby said:One week out from Super Tuesday, my model's prediction...
(total accumulated delegates, not including straw-poll/unbound states)
Trump 387
Cruz 165
Rubio 72
Carson 55
Kasich 9
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit?usp=sharing0 -
Pound vs Canadian dollar took one massive hammering during banking crisis (for well known reasons). It had just about crept back over 2.00, before the past week or so. (Historical context pre crash it was 2.3-2.5 range, post crash it went as low as 1.6).Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters.
Why the sudden interest now. Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.0 -
Worth noting that nothing much is happening - that change is the mirror of ComRes, but they're both showing opinion drifting around General Election levels. I think that's because both major parties are in turmoil, so voters are saying "oh, I dunno, I'll vote as I did last year, I suppose". They may not give it serious further thought until and unless the parties settle down. But certainly I don't see anything there to trigger a huge uprising against Cameron or Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov VI (changes since 4th of Feb)
Con 37 (-2)
Lab 30 (+1)
LD 6 (nc)
UKIP 16 (-2)
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mq5hrUDoYo
HRC Rally,
Sowing up the black vote in the southern states.
"Mothers of the movement !"0 -
Lol the guy on now is the spitting image of Scott Kelly (ISS Astronaut)0
-
No. I find the drop in GBP/USD to be disconcerting and personally expensive. Swearing at me nor relating the events of the past will not change that. Telling me with increasing intensity that it is not a problem will not change the facts.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters...Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
Because it's happening now.Pulpstar said:Why the sudden interest now?
0 -
The gift that keeps on giving - Hillary and her emails. It's gotten worse for her yet again.
A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that State Department officials and top aides to Hillary Clinton should be questioned under oath about whether they intentionally thwarted federal open records laws by using or allowing the use of a private email server throughout Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state from 2009 to 2013.
Sullivan also suggested from the bench that he might at some point order the department to subpoena Clinton and Abedin to return all emails related to Clinton’s private account, not just records their camps previously deemed work-related and returned.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/us-judge-weighs-deeper-probe-into-clintons-private-email-system/2016/02/23/9c27412a-d997-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html0 -
Worth noting that certainty to vote with Leave is well above Remain (74% to 64%).HYUFD said:London
Remain 54
Leave 46
South
Remain 49
Leave 51
Midlands/Wales
Remain 45
Leave 57
North
Remain 47
Leave 53
Scotland
Remain 62
Leave 38
Tories
Remain 43
Leave 57
Labour
Remain 74
Leave 26
LD
Remain 83
Leave 17
UKIP
Remain 4
Leave 96
Other
Remain 65
Leave 35
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf0 -
GBP vs EUR is a frankly unremarkable 1.27. As Philip Thompson has pointed out this is about the Fed looking at raising rates, not GBP - the USD is very strong right now.viewcode said:
No. I find the drop in GBP/USD to be disconcerting and personally expensive. Swearing at me nor relating the events of the past will not change that. Telling me with increasing intensity that it is not a problem will not change the facts.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters...Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
Because it's happening now.Pulpstar said:Why the sudden interest now?
0 -
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
0 -
Why do currency movements bug you so much?viewcode said:
No. I find the drop in GBP/USD to be disconcerting and personally expensive. Swearing at me nor relating the events of the past will not change that. Telling me with increasing intensity that it is not a problem will not change the facts.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters...Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
Because it's happening now.Pulpstar said:Why the sudden interest now?
0 -
Oh God, Rubio on again.0
-
It's probably worth pointing out that this has NOTHING to do with the FBI investigation.Tim_B said:
The gift that keeps on giving - Hillary and her emails. It's gotten worse for her yet again.
A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that State Department officials and top aides to Hillary Clinton should be questioned under oath about whether they intentionally thwarted federal open records laws by using or allowing the use of a private email server throughout Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state from 2009 to 2013.
Sullivan also suggested from the bench that he might at some point order the department to subpoena Clinton and Abedin to return all emails related to Clinton’s private account, not just records their camps previously deemed work-related and returned.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/us-judge-weighs-deeper-probe-into-clintons-private-email-system/2016/02/23/9c27412a-d997-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html0 -
The Donald is steaming in on the POTUS front.
5.10 -
And if I was discussing GBP/EUR, I would not have remarked upon it.Pulpstar said:
GBP vs EUR is a frankly unremarkable 1.27. As Philip Thompson has pointed out this is about the Fed looking at raising rates, not GBP - the USD is very strong right now.viewcode said:
No. I find the drop in GBP/USD to be disconcerting and personally expensive. Swearing at me nor relating the events of the past will not change that. Telling me with increasing intensity that it is not a problem will not change the facts.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters...Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
Because it's happening now.Pulpstar said:Why the sudden interest now?
0 -
I think my preferred POTUS would be:
1. Kasich
2. Trump
3. HRC
4. Cruz
5. Sanders
6. Rubio.
There's something unremittingly awful about Rubio.0 -
Remember London includes the suburbs as well ie Bexley, Bromley and Havering not just inner London so I would not expect that big a discrepancyAndyJS said:
I'd probably expect London to be 10 points more Remain than the country as a whole, ie. 50/50 in UK would be 60/40 in London, roughly speaking.HYUFD said:
If it is 51/49 Leave as yougov has it in that poll the figure looks about right, London 60/40 Remain would suggest about 55/45 Remain UK-wideAndyJS said:HYUFD:
London on Remain 54/46 doesn't look right to me. I'd expect the figure to be at least 60/40.0 -
A bit above but not a vast difference, you would expect Leavers to be more committed but it is not overwhelmingly soSean_F said:
Worth noting that certainty to vote with Leave is well above Remain (74% to 64%).HYUFD said:London
Remain 54
Leave 46
South
Remain 49
Leave 51
Midlands/Wales
Remain 45
Leave 57
North
Remain 47
Leave 53
Scotland
Remain 62
Leave 38
Tories
Remain 43
Leave 57
Labour
Remain 74
Leave 26
LD
Remain 83
Leave 17
UKIP
Remain 4
Leave 96
Other
Remain 65
Leave 35
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf0 -
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
0 -
If the UK votes to leave then the precident is set. Netherlands, Ireland, Czech Republic and Serbia could all follow us out. This is why the Remainers are becoming so hyperbolic about the "dangers" of leaving, they can see their Project falling apart in front of them.Tykejohnno said:Czech Republic 'will follow Britain out of EU'
Fears of contagion as Serbia says Brexit fears mean the 'magic' has gone out of joining the European Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/czechrepublic/12170994/Czechs-will-follow-Britain-out-of-EU.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
As I said, you may disagree.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.0 -
Serbia isn't actually in yet!Sandpit said:
If the UK votes to leave then the precident is set. Netherlands, Ireland, Czech Republic and Serbia could all follow us out. This is why the Remainers are becoming so hyperbolic about the "dangers" of leaving, they can see their Project falling apart in front of them.Tykejohnno said:Czech Republic 'will follow Britain out of EU'
Fears of contagion as Serbia says Brexit fears mean the 'magic' has gone out of joining the European Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/czechrepublic/12170994/Czechs-will-follow-Britain-out-of-EU.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:0 -
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?0 -
No. He'll declare himself El Presidente for Life, and make the once-great city of New York the one maximum security prison for the entire country.RodCrosby said:0 -
The pound has been falling against the Euro for the past couple of months, now at a 52-week low €1.27, it was as high as €1.44 last summer.viewcode said:
And if I was discussing GBP/EUR, I would not have remarked upon it.Pulpstar said:
GBP vs EUR is a frankly unremarkable 1.27. As Philip Thompson has pointed out this is about the Fed looking at raising rates, not GBP - the USD is very strong right now.viewcode said:
No. I find the drop in GBP/USD to be disconcerting and personally expensive. Swearing at me nor relating the events of the past will not change that. Telling me with increasing intensity that it is not a problem will not change the facts.Pulpstar said:Jesus Fucking Christ @viewcode - Where the fuck were you when Sterling broke 1.4 vs the Euro. Where were you then, with that dire rate for exporters...Sterling has fluctuated heavily before Boris and Brexit and it's not just a problem when it drops in value.
OK ?
Because it's happening now.Pulpstar said:Why the sudden interest now?
The USD is exceptionally strong right now, as others have said mainly due to the Fed being the first major central bank to raise interest rates.0 -
38% of Trump voters in South Carolina thought the South should have won the Civil War to only 28% who are glad the North won. GOP voters as a whole were glad the North won by 36% to 30%
https://twitter.com/AntoniaJuhasz/status/7022907467668520960 -
So now would be a good time for me to visit the UK?Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?0 -
Picking every single major currency is cherrypicking?viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
No only picking the only one that suits your agenda is cherrypicking. Ignore the other currencies at your peril, it just betrays your ignorance. Again. As for dates I chose the recent past.0 -
The Constitution and the Framers and the SCOTUS have all been clear about what an NBC is.HYUFD said:
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:
Barry is not eligible to be an intern, never mind POTUS.
Son of a Brit (Kenyan)...0 -
Indeed it isn't! Someone is reading articles too quickly while clearly still half asleepSunil_Prasannan said:
Serbia isn't actually in yet!Sandpit said:
If the UK votes to leave then the precident is set. Netherlands, Ireland, Czech Republic and Serbia could all follow us out. This is why the Remainers are becoming so hyperbolic about the "dangers" of leaving, they can see their Project falling apart in front of them.Tykejohnno said:Czech Republic 'will follow Britain out of EU'
Fears of contagion as Serbia says Brexit fears mean the 'magic' has gone out of joining the European Union
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/czechrepublic/12170994/Czechs-will-follow-Britain-out-of-EU.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
0 -
Yes the framers specifically said in 1780 that a NBC includes any child of a citizen, or anyone born in the US like Obama was.RodCrosby said:
The Constitution and the Framers and the SCOTUS have all been clear about what an NBC is.HYUFD said:
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:
Barry is not eligible to be an intern, never mind POTUS.
Son of a Brit (Kenyan)...0 -
DEM turnout in South Carolina forecast to be down.....
Another straw in the wind for Pres Trump0 -
He was born in Hawaii a US state and the SCOTUS have never made one ruling he was ineligibleRodCrosby said:
The Constitution and the Framers and the SCOTUS have all been clear about what an NBC is.HYUFD said:
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:
Barry is not eligible to be an intern, never mind POTUS.
Son of a Brit (Kenyan)...0 -
Yawn. You're either mistaken, or just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes the framers specifically said in 1780 that a NBC includes any child of a citizen, or anyone born in the US like Obama was.RodCrosby said:
The Constitution and the Framers and the SCOTUS have all been clear about what an NBC is.HYUFD said:
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:
Barry is not eligible to be an intern, never mind POTUS.
Son of a Brit (Kenyan)...0 -
Yep! Anyone earning dollars is doing well right now, especially if they have outgoings in pounds or euros.Tim_B said:
So now would be a good time for me to visit the UK?Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?
0 -
There are some things I can't get locally, and they come in from outside the UK or I go to them. But that's just me. However I have a rather extended family[1] with relatives on the West and East Coast USA,[2] some in Mediterranean Europe, some elsewhere. Things like property purchase and currency movements do have an immediate and personal impact.Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?
[1] "Happy Birthday" in our family usually involves three languages: more, depending on the divorces, tho' - thankfully - not at the same time.
[2] Although they went south with one of my sister's divorces, so I don't know if that still count0 -
Sean F. You used to do excellent regular articles for PB when you were a Tory party member - and now of course you are UKIP.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
I would be very interested in reading a PB Thread article written by you setting out the case for LEAVE if you were willing to submit one and if Mike felt it would be appropriate.0 -
Sorry 1790 I meant in the only every definition set in statute: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naturalization_Act_of_1790RodCrosby said:
Yawn. You're either mistaken, or just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes the framers specifically said in 1780 that a NBC includes any child of a citizen, or anyone born in the US like Obama was.RodCrosby said:
The Constitution and the Framers and the SCOTUS have all been clear about what an NBC is.HYUFD said:
There is such a thing as the constitution, even the Donald cannot interpret it to suit his own whims!RodCrosby said:
Barry is not eligible to be an intern, never mind POTUS.
Son of a Brit (Kenyan)...0 -
Goody - I'm seriously considering a trip there in the next month or so. I have 300,000 frequent flier miles just aching to be used up.Sandpit said:
Yep! Anyone earning dollars is doing well right now, especially if they have outgoings in pounds or euros.Tim_B said:
So now would be a good time for me to visit the UK?Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?0 -
So if you have an issue with the USD have a word with the Fed which has caused a global rise in the USD. Don't make up ignorant lies that this is due to the UK or Brexit.viewcode said:
There are some things I can't get locally, and they come in from outside the UK or I go to them. But that's just me. However I have a rather extended family[1] with relatives on the West and East Coast USA,[2] some in Mediterranean Europe, some elsewhere. Things like property purchase and currency movements do have an immediate and personal impact.Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?
[1] "Happy Birthday" in our family usually involves three languages: more, depending on the divorces, tho' - thankfully - not at the same time.
[2] Although they went south with one of my sister's divorces, so I don't know if that still count0 -
No, picking the dates was cherrypicking.Philip_Thompson said:
Picking every single major currency is cherrypicking?viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
No only picking the only one that suits your agenda is cherrypicking. Ignore the other currencies at your peril, it just betrays your ignorance. Again. As for dates I chose the recent past.
IMHO the drop in GBP/USD is not unremarkable nor desirable. You may disagree, but that does not change what I find remarkable or desirable.0 -
You should probably ask your relatives to campaign for either Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders. Either should give a decent run for the GBP against the USD.viewcode said:
No, picking the dates was cherrypicking.Philip_Thompson said:
Picking every single major currency is cherrypicking?viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
No only picking the only one that suits your agenda is cherrypicking. Ignore the other currencies at your peril, it just betrays your ignorance. Again. As for dates I chose the recent past.
IMHO the drop in GBP/USD is not unremarkable nor desirable. You may disagree, but that does not change what I find remarkable or desirable.0 -
I'm sorry: are you accusing me of being ignorant or lying? I can't be both simultaneouslyPhilip_Thompson said:
So if you have an issue with the USD have a word with the Fed which has caused a global rise in the USD. Don't make up ignorant lies that this is due to the UK or Brexit.viewcode said:
There are some things I can't get locally, and they come in from outside the UK or I go to them. But that's just me. However I have a rather extended family[1] with relatives on the West and East Coast USA,[2] some in Mediterranean Europe, some elsewhere. Things like property purchase and currency movements do have an immediate and personal impact.Pulpstar said:
Bad news if you are reselling crap from china on amazon or ebay I guess. Or going on a US holiday. But we import too much junk.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
@Viewcode EURGBP affects my company due to the fact most of our sales are in Euro. Apologies for the outburst earlier, are you an importer ?
[1] "Happy Birthday" in our family usually involves three languages: more, depending on the divorces, tho' - thankfully - not at the same time.
[2] Although they went south with one of my sister's divorces, so I don't know if that still count0 -
I think this is a very good point.Luckyguy1983 said:Negative campaigning works. As I have constantly said, 'Leave' need to fight fear with fear. They need to frame 'Remain' as a POSITIVE COMMITMENT to the EU, as a binding contract, as underwriting a loan, carrying the can etc. The fear case is just as strong against committing to continued membership as it is against leaving. The biggest thing people need to be made to fear is giving the EU a huge mandate - what if it's a walkover, what will they do then? They should be encouraged to give the EU a kicking if only to send a message that all is not well.
If fear goes both ways, at the very least weak remainers will stay at home - they have no additional reason to vote remain. Actual passionate remainers (ie Lib Dem activists) can car share on the way to the polling booth.
And bloody unite for pity's sake, surely we all want to get out of the EU enough to pretend to like each other for a couple of months.
My starting position is to vote REMAIN, primarily because of the fearful economic leap into the unknown dark that is associated with voting LEAVE. But if LEAVE can counter that fear by making the opposing argument that there is a substantial economic risk in voting REMAIN then potential undecideds like me might well reconsider.
0 -
Many thanks. I think Mike would prefer to focus on likely outcomes, and betting implications, rather than arguments for or against one side. If Mike thinks articles for and against Leave are appropriate, then I'd willingly submit one.stjohn said:
Sean F. You used to do excellent regular articles for PB when you were a Tory party member - and now of course you are UKIP.Sean_F said:
It's undesirable if you've gambled on Sterling rising against the dollar and it's going in the opposite direction. Otherwise, it's not much of an issue.viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
I would be very interested in reading a PB Thread article written by you setting out the case for LEAVE if you were willing to submit one and if Mike felt it would be appropriate.
FWIW, I think Remain will win, by 53-57% to 43-47%. Beating the establishment is extremely difficult.0 -
I'm not sure if you are ignorant, lying or both.viewcode said:
No, picking the dates was cherrypicking.Philip_Thompson said:
Picking every single major currency is cherrypicking?viewcode said:
I forget the name of the technique you're using: let's call it "cherrypicking" for the moment, tho' no doubt it has another name. Listing the dates which suit your argument is not sufficient: it merely points out that there were times in the past where the current situation did or did not pertain. This does not make the current situation tolerable nor desirable.Philip_Thompson said:
The pound is stronger against the Euro than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Canadian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Australian dollar than at any time between 2009-2014.
The pound is stronger against the Indian Rupee than any time before 2014.
The pound is stronger against the Yen than at any time between 2009-2013.
The pound is weaker against the Dollar than most but not all times between 2009-2014.
Spot the odd one out. The dollar has risen against all FX due to the Fed raising rates. It has nothing to do with the pound being weak.
IMHO the fall in GBP/USD is undesirable and the level it is now hitting is rare enough to merit attention. You may disagree. But listing past levels will not make a difference.
No only picking the only one that suits your agenda is cherrypicking. Ignore the other currencies at your peril, it just betrays your ignorance. Again. As for dates I chose the recent past.
IMHO the drop in GBP/USD is not unremarkable nor desirable. You may disagree, but that does not change what I find remarkable or desirable.
The dates were recent years for comparison. If I chose historical years it would be cherrypicking. Unless the GPB has fallen against a basket of currencies then it's got squat to do with the Pound. The UK is still significantly stronger than it has been post crisis in a basket.0
