politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new EURef polls just published show IN improving its po

System · February 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new EURef polls just published show IN improving its position against OUT

UPDATED with tonight's EURef polls. Table of all recent published surveys pic.twitter.com/Gpfh41vdss

watford30 · February 2016

Bottom right hand corner of the front page of tomorrow's Times.

'Migrant influx tops 100,000 in 6 weeks'.

Wait until the Spring and watch those numbers rocket.

RoyalBlue · February 2016

Second, like Leave

Ave_it · February 2016

See the Leave promo vid is working then!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk

Scott_P · February 2016

https://twitter.com/thebrexitpoll/status/702259680974872576

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.

Scott_P · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.

Not when Osborne takes over...

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

With the Tories tearing lumps out of each other, Dave being a Flashman bully to poor Boris the Tories increase their lead

ComRes Phone poll

Voting intention

Con 38% (+1)

Lab 31% (-1)

LD 8% (+2)

UKIP 12% (NC)

Green 3% (-1)

SNP 4% (NC)

Other 3% (NC)

MikeSmithson · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.

Very true. He's electoral an asset to CON like Blair was to LAB. Will Dave end up being hated by his party.

Ave_it · February 2016

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...

Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid

Pong · February 2016

FPT @Mortimer

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
That soon?
As PB's leading Cameroon toady, my boy has been under real attack in the past few days, I've got to stick up for him.
I'm actually a little irrationally forgiving of Cameron myself - I give him the benefit of the doubt way more than most politicians, and something about him just works as PM in my head - if Remain is to win, I'd hope he could stay on until 2020 quite frankly, I just cannot see how he manages that given the level of vitriol that will come his way if he wins, the narrative of liar and betrayer already established.

All note though that I am still the same person who couldn't see how the Tories could win most seats (not a majority, but most seats) ten minutes before the exit poll in May.
A few days prior to the election, off site I was discussing the various odds with one of PB's foremost betting experts, he advised me to take the Tory majority at 10/1. I was like, nah not, going to happen.
Worse, despite my predictions of a Tory Maj, I had 80 quid on at 8s on betfair and yet laid most of it off 24 hours before the exit poll. Just couldn't understand how the polls were so far from my experience on the doorstep. I stupidly believed the polls more than what I was seeing.
I wouldn't kick yourself too badly.

I backed ConMaj @ 25/1 ~24 hrs before the exit poll, although also lost big bets on EICIPM.

ConMaj was unlikely. Just not 25/1 unlikely.

In another campaign like that with the same sort of polling numbers, I probably still wouldn't back Con Maj below 10/1 24 hrs before polls close.

Would you?

Pulpstar · February 2016

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Very true. He's electoral an asset to CON like Blair was to LAB. Will Dave end up being hated by his party.

How does Ted Heath score amongst Tories compared to Blair within Labourites ?

Iraq vs Europe !

MP_SE · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.

The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.

kle4 · February 2016

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Very true. He's electoral an asset to CON like Blair was to LAB. Will Dave end up being hated by his party.

Yes.

I suspect not quite as much though - sure a sizable minority will never forgive him for defeating them, but at least over Europe, however long it takes, there is the hope they could get what they want in the long run, whereas Iraq could not be taken back (not that it stopped him winning afterwards I suppose)

Danny565 · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.

I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.

I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.

kle4 · February 2016

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid

Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?

Pulpstar · February 2016

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid

Sean Fear informed me I could have ~£240 per year more under Osborne's pension plans

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
With the Tories tearing lumps out of each other, Dave being a Flashman bully to poor Boris the Tories increase their lead

ComRes Phone poll

Voting intention

Con 38% (+1)

Lab 31% (-1)

LD 8% (+2)

UKIP 12% (NC)

Green 3% (-1)

SNP 4% (NC)

Other 3% (NC)

Why are they written in that order?

If it's alphabetical then why are Greens below UKIP. If it's party size then why are LD above UKIP and SNP.

Scott_P · February 2016

Danny565 said:
especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.

Yes, IDS on TV will sway more Tory voters to remain.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.

I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.

There's only one Tory that the voters like that has the economic credibility to rival Dave.

The bad news for Leave is that Tory is Ken Clarke,

As Boris and the cabinet outers realise they won't win banging on about immigration but on the economy/who governs Britain

Pulpstar · February 2016

Daves' sins really pale in comparison to Blair's tbh.

OK He's no good at negotiating, but he's delivered the referendum on Europe the Tory party has wanted for ages. He's great at selling his product, that's his real strength.

Mortimer · February 2016

Pong said:
FPT @Mortimer

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
That soon?
As PB's leading Cameroon toady, my boy has been under real attack in the past few days, I've got to stick up for him.
I'm actually a little irrationally forgiving of Cameron myself - I give him the benefit of the doubt way more than most politicians, and something about him just works as PM in my head - if Remain is to win, I'd hope he could stay on until 2020 quite frankly, I just cannot see how he manages that given the level of vitriol that will come his way if he wins, the narrative of liar and betrayer already established.

All note though that I am still the same person who couldn't see how the Tories could win most seats (not a majority, but most seats) ten minutes before the exit poll in May.
A few days prior to the election, off site I was discussing the various odds with one of PB's foremost betting experts, he advised me to take the Tory majority at 10/1. I was like, nah not, going to happen.
Worse, despite my predictions of a Tory Maj, I had 80 quid on at 8s on betfair and yet laid most of it off 24 hours before the exit poll. Just couldn't understand how the polls were so far from my experience on the doorstep. I stupidly believed the polls more than what I was seeing.
I wouldn't kick yourself too badly.

I backed ConMaj @ 25/1 ~24 hrs before the exit poll, although also lost big bets on EICIPM.

ConMaj was unlikely. Just not 25/1 unlikely.

In another campaign like that with the same sort of polling numbers, I probably still wouldn't back Con Maj below 10/1 24 hrs before polls close.

Would you?

Good point. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

The only problem is that I then won the prediction competition. As only an amateur punter, I should have stuck to my guns!

Scott_P · February 2016

@BBCNewsnight: Cameron "got almost everything he wanted but we had some red lines" - French Ambassador Sylvie Bermann tells #newsnight about EU negotiation

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.

If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
With the Tories tearing lumps out of each other, Dave being a Flashman bully to poor Boris the Tories increase their lead

ComRes Phone poll

Voting intention

Con 38% (+1)

Lab 31% (-1)

LD 8% (+2)

UKIP 12% (NC)

Green 3% (-1)

SNP 4% (NC)

Other 3% (NC)
Why are they written in that order?

If it's alphabetical then why are Greens below UKIP. If it's party size then why are LD above UKIP and SNP.

Same reason the PB spreadsheets Mike and I use have them in that order.

In the good old days, it used to be three parties, and we put them in alphabetical order.

Con, Lab and LD.

Then UKIP came along, and got their own column, ditto the SNP and Greens.

To change the pre UKIP arrival order means going back and re sorting speadsheets and I've not got that kind of time.

watford30 · February 2016

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...

Osborne would have to win any leadership election first. And he's going to be loathed by many members trying to save for their future pensions.

kle4 · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
With the Tories tearing lumps out of each other, Dave being a Flashman bully to poor Boris the Tories increase their lead

ComRes Phone poll

Voting intention

Con 38% (+1)

Lab 31% (-1)

LD 8% (+2)

UKIP 12% (NC)

Green 3% (-1)

SNP 4% (NC)

Other 3% (NC)
Why are they written in that order?

If it's alphabetical then why are Greens below UKIP. If it's party size then why are LD above UKIP and SNP.

It's tradition. Though SNP used to be included in Other, so it may well shift in time.

AndyJS · February 2016

"Helena Frith Powell
Without Europe we'd slide into barbarism"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12170928/Lets-not-forget-how-it-was-before-Europe-made-us-civilised.html

nigel4england · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.

I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.
There's only one Tory that the voters like that has the economic credibility to rival Dave.

The bad news for Leave is that Tory is Ken Clarke,

As Boris and the cabinet outers realise they won't win banging on about immigration but on the economy/who governs Britain

Bad news for Remain is that Ken Clarke told us 15 years ago we would all go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. That somewhat suggests his economic credibility is not all it seems.

Pulpstar · February 2016

Pong said:
FPT @Mortimer

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
That soon?
As PB's leading Cameroon toady, my boy has been under real attack in the past few days, I've got to stick up for him.
I'm actually a little irrationally forgiving of Cameron myself - I give him the benefit of the doubt way more than most politicians, and something about him just works as PM in my head - if Remain is to win, I'd hope he could stay on until 2020 quite frankly, I just cannot see how he manages that given the level of vitriol that will come his way if he wins, the narrative of liar and betrayer already established.

All note though that I am still the same person who couldn't see how the Tories could win most seats (not a majority, but most seats) ten minutes before the exit poll in May.
A few days prior to the election, off site I was discussing the various odds with one of PB's foremost betting experts, he advised me to take the Tory majority at 10/1. I was like, nah not, going to happen.
Worse, despite my predictions of a Tory Maj, I had 80 quid on at 8s on betfair and yet laid most of it off 24 hours before the exit poll. Just couldn't understand how the polls were so far from my experience on the doorstep. I stupidly believed the polls more than what I was seeing.
I wouldn't kick yourself too badly.

I backed ConMaj @ 25/1 ~24 hrs before the exit poll, although also lost big bets on EICIPM.

ConMaj was unlikely. Just not 25/1 unlikely.

In another campaign like that with the same sort of polling numbers, I probably still wouldn't back Con Maj below 10/1 24 hrs before polls close.

Would you?

Only Matt Singh, Rod Crosby and Tissue Price saw the Tory Maj I think. Noone makes the correct calls all the time though.

The important thing is to learn from your errors.

Ave_it · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Sean Fear informed me I could have ~£240 per year more under Osborne's pension plans

I still can't work out how flat rate pension tax relief of 25% will save money when virtually everyone gets it only at 20% now!

Not fair to AR 45% payers !

MP_SE · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.

I couldn't care less about American's feelings. What I care about is the myth that the EU has kept peace in Europe since WW2. It is not the EU that has kept peace in Europe but the role of NATO and the USA.

Going back to the original point, the EU keeps us safe from Russia and North Korea? Yes/No

kle4 · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:
FPT @Mortimer

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
That soon?
As PB's leading Cameroon toady, my boy has been under real attack in the past few days, I've got to stick up for him.
I'm actually a little irrationally forgiving of Cameron myself - I give him the benefit of the doubt way more than most politicians, and something about him just works as PM in my head - if Remain is to win, I'd hope he could stay on until 2020 quite frankly, I just cannot see how he manages that given the level of vitriol that will come his way if he wins, the narrative of liar and betrayer already established.

All note though that I am still the same person who couldn't see how the Tories could win most seats (not a majority, but most seats) ten minutes before the exit poll in May.
A few days prior to the election, off site I was discussing the various odds with one of PB's foremost betting experts, he advised me to take the Tory majority at 10/1. I was like, nah not, going to happen.
Worse, despite my predictions of a Tory Maj, I had 80 quid on at 8s on betfair and yet laid most of it off 24 hours before the exit poll. Just couldn't understand how the polls were so far from my experience on the doorstep. I stupidly believed the polls more than what I was seeing.
I wouldn't kick yourself too badly.

I backed ConMaj @ 25/1 ~24 hrs before the exit poll, although also lost big bets on EICIPM.

ConMaj was unlikely. Just not 25/1 unlikely.

In another campaign like that with the same sort of polling numbers, I probably still wouldn't back Con Maj below 10/1 24 hrs before polls close.

Would you?

Only Matt Singh, Rod Crosby and Tissue Price saw the Tory Maj I think. Noone makes the correct calls all the time though.

The important thing is to learn from your errors.

Or alternatively, never learn from them, but still act as though your predictions are faultless - which describes most professional pundits.

Ave_it · February 2016

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?

Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.

I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.
There's only one Tory that the voters like that has the economic credibility to rival Dave.

The bad news for Leave is that Tory is Ken Clarke,

As Boris and the cabinet outers realise they won't win banging on about immigration but on the economy/who governs Britain
Bad news for Remain is that Ken Clarke told us 15 years ago we would all go to hell in a handcart if we didn't join the Euro. That somewhat suggests his economic credibility is not all it seems.

He said we should join when it was appropriate, it wasn't appropriate then,

He has the credibility from being a successful Chancellor, that's what voters remember.

Pulpstar · February 2016

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!

Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.
Going back to the original point, the EU keeps us safe from Russia and North Korea? Yes/No

I think no but the Americans have always said yes. So maybe it's best to shut up about America.

Pulpstar · February 2016

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:
FPT @Mortimer

Pong said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
That soon?
As PB's leading Cameroon toady, my boy has been under real attack in the past few days, I've got to stick up for him.
I'm actually a little irrationally forgiving of Cameron myself - I give him the benefit of the doubt way more than most politicians, and something about him just works as PM in my head - if Remain is to win, I'd hope he could stay on until 2020 quite frankly, I just cannot see how he manages that given the level of vitriol that will come his way if he wins, the narrative of liar and betrayer already established.

All note though that I am still the same person who couldn't see how the Tories could win most seats (not a majority, but most seats) ten minutes before the exit poll in May.
A few days prior to the election, off site I was discussing the various odds with one of PB's foremost betting experts, he advised me to take the Tory majority at 10/1. I was like, nah not, going to happen.
Worse, despite my predictions of a Tory Maj, I had 80 quid on at 8s on betfair and yet laid most of it off 24 hours before the exit poll. Just couldn't understand how the polls were so far from my experience on the doorstep. I stupidly believed the polls more than what I was seeing.
I wouldn't kick yourself too badly.

I backed ConMaj @ 25/1 ~24 hrs before the exit poll, although also lost big bets on EICIPM.

ConMaj was unlikely. Just not 25/1 unlikely.

In another campaign like that with the same sort of polling numbers, I probably still wouldn't back Con Maj below 10/1 24 hrs before polls close.

Would you?

Only Matt Singh, Rod Crosby and Tissue Price saw the Tory Maj I think. Noone makes the correct calls all the time though.

The important thing is to learn from your errors.
Or alternatively, never learn from them, but still act as though your predictions are faultless - which describes most professional pundits.

Alot of those calls aren't am I right or wrong, its will this get ratings or sell more papers, or shares.

RoyalBlue · February 2016

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid

Come on Aveit, Sajid is a quisling Remainian!

#Priti4PM

hunchman · February 2016

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid

Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.

Mortimer · February 2016

Sadiq Khan talks very fast!

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2016

Scott_P said:

Danny565 said:
especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.
Yes, IDS on TV will sway more Tory voters to remain.

The problem for leave is that not only do they have competing out campaigns but no one including Boris is the Statesman to compete against David Cameron. If the leave adverts shown on the previous thread are really going public they are in danger of becoming a laughing stock. And all of this before the second best politician in the UK, Nicola Sturgeon, enters the fray.

JonathanD · February 2016

Pulpstar said:
Daves' sins really pale in comparison to Blair's tbh.

OK He's no good at negotiating, but he's delivered the referendum on Europe the Tory party has wanted for ages. He's great at selling his product, that's his real strength.

Is there any evidence that he is a bad negotiator though? The trick with the EU seems to get an initial change / reform and then spend the next 10 years exploiting that and moving things the way you want them to go - the EU has a huge inertia but once you've started it moving the way you want...

Ave_it · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..

Free markets, free movement, freedom, all part of the Ave It social liberal philosophy!

We don't need Camo to restrict benefits to EU - if Osborne got off his * and scrapped ALL benefits we'd be laughing!

hunchman · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..

Ave it - LEAVE us in peace if you're in the remain camp!

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.

Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.

Danny565 · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
I don't think it's that. I think it's more that, as predicted, the pantomime of the "tough negotiations" made it seem like the deal was more substantial than it actually was.

I don't necessarily think this bump will last, especially if more and more Tory-Outer ministers get more vocal and sway some more Tory voters.
There's only one Tory that the voters like that has the economic credibility to rival Dave.

The bad news for Leave is that Tory is Ken Clarke,

As Boris and the cabinet outers realise they won't win banging on about immigration but on the economy/who governs Britain

Well, I think that depends on what you mean by not "banging on about immigration".

I think this Carswell/Gove idea of advocating EEA membership, where immigration would be essentially unaffected by leaving the EU, would lead to an inevitable Leave defeat. For many people, controlling immigration is the main reason for Leaving, and if that wasn't even on offer then many would ask why bother with the hassle of it. Some "make Britain like Singapore" nonsense would go down like a cup of cold sick in the working-class Labour heartlands in particular.

However, I think they can't talk just about immigration. Most people outside of a hardcore care about the economy and public services just as much, if not more than, immigration. Plus, even for many people who strongly agree with the need to control immigration levels, they (maybe hypocritically) tend to be a bit suspicious of people like the Kippers who get so zealously angry about it. I think arguing for immigration controls is necessary but not sufficient on its own for Leave.

Ave_it · February 2016

hunchman said:

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..
Ave it - LEAVE us in peace if you're in the remain camp!

I'm not going anywhere hunchman! I am Remaining! How are your tips for the FTSE?

MP_SE · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.
Going back to the original point, the EU keeps us safe from Russia and North Korea? Yes/No
I think no but the Americans have always said yes. So maybe it's best to shut up about America.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest the EU has not kept the peace in Europe so there is no reason to shut up about it.

rcs1000 · February 2016

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.

The US also bears some responsibility over Yugoslavia; before the fall of communism they poured tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of dollars to ethnic groups inside Yugoslavia to try and stir up conflict and increase the chance of revolution.

FrankBooth · February 2016

Any French speakers here? What's Boris saying? He switches between English and French but I think in the last minute he's talking about the EU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OzSvvuCgJ4

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

There was a methodology change in that YouGov poll

This poll is the first to be conducted after methodological changes, with greater weight given to people who say they pay little attention to politics

AndyJS · February 2016

"Britain must stay in the EU to protect itself from Isil, former military chiefs say

In a letter to The Telegraph, 13 of Britain's most senior former military commanders urge voters to back EU membership to protect British national security"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12170890/Britain-must-stay-in-the-EU-to-protect-itself-from-Isil-former-military-chiefs-say.html

Mortimer · February 2016

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.

Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?

williamglenn · February 2016

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.
I couldn't care less about American's feelings. What I care about is the myth that the EU has kept peace in Europe since WW2. It is not the EU that has kept peace in Europe but the role of NATO and the USA.

Going back to the original point, the EU keeps us safe from Russia and North Korea? Yes/No

The very fact that you frame the question in that way shows how successful the EU has been. It is clearly unthinkable to you that serious conflict could emerge from within Europe proper, despite that being the origin of the most deadly conflicts in history.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
If you're worried about the Americans feelings vote Remain. Bringing up Americans is not a great Leave argument when every American president for decades has wanted us in the EU.
Going back to the original point, the EU keeps us safe from Russia and North Korea? Yes/No
I think no but the Americans have always said yes. So maybe it's best to shut up about America.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest the EU has not kept the peace in Europe so there is no reason to shut up about it.

Arguing over merits has a point.

Arguing over respect to America? Stupid. It can't be disrespectful to America to do as America requests.

SquareRoot · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
There was a methodology change in that YouGov poll

This poll is the first to be conducted after methodological changes, with greater weight given to people who say they pay little attention to politics

Tinkering again...

Wanderer · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

The important thing is to learn from your errors.

Yes. For me, for the election, that would be assigning the right weight to different pieces of information. Ed in Warwickshire North, Dave in Twickenham, were very strong signs that things weren't as I thought they were.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/702267489099583488

hunchman · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.

You're too late, I've already got a £50 / $50 bet on that with someone else, and I wouldn't want to rob you of your hard earned savings:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/cameron-selling-out-britain-pound-to-fall-to-55-cents/

We didn't elect the yearly bearish reversal at 1.4615 as we closed last year at 1.4742....which hints that most of the decline is going to be in 2017....but the test of 1.3965 is imminent. That's where the key level lies that I've referred to as GBPUSD 1.39 over the past week.

Tykejohnno · February 2016

The establishment always wins.

Could someone tell me when will we see the leave side start the campaign,it's been non stop pro propaganda from the remain on the Tv media and now it's hitting home with the Generals in the papers.

No wonder the polls are moving for remain.

I know it's a long campaign but watching the news the last couple of days,the leave side need to step up or join up.

hunchman · February 2016

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?

See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.

SouthamObserver · February 2016

A deal between PSOE and Ciudadanos in Spain is getting close:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/23/inenglish/1456239641_874291.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW_CM

It will lead to PSOE's Pedro Sanchez becoming PM, if PP and/or Podemos abstain in the investiture vote in the Cortes. It is likely at least one of them will.

Mortimer · February 2016

hunchman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.
You're too late, I've already got a £50 / $50 bet on that with someone else, and I wouldn't want to rob you of your hard earned savings:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/cameron-selling-out-britain-pound-to-fall-to-55-cents/

We didn't elect the yearly bearish reversal at 1.4615 as we closed last year at 1.4742....which hints that most of the decline is going to be in 2017....but the test of 1.3965 is imminent. That's where the key level lies that I've referred to as GBPUSD 1.39 over the past week.

I don't think I've ever read such nonsense, or poor English; and I've read some really mainstream tripe over the years...

Scrapheap_as_was · February 2016

Ave_it said:

hunchman said:

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..
Ave it - LEAVE us in peace if you're in the remain camp!
I'm not going anywhere hunchman! I am Remaining! How are your tips for the FTSE?

Have you ever joined our new tory party, not obsessed with Europe, Gays etc party. You can be pensions spokesman or indeed our pb Boris (pre leave version)

Pulpstar · February 2016

hunchman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.
You're too late, I've already got a £50 / $50 bet on that with someone else, and I wouldn't want to rob you of your hard earned savings:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/cameron-selling-out-britain-pound-to-fall-to-55-cents/

We didn't elect the yearly bearish reversal at 1.4615 as we closed last year at 1.4742....which hints that most of the decline is going to be in 2017....but the test of 1.3965 is imminent. That's where the key level lies that I've referred to as GBPUSD 1.39 over the past week.

Let me know if you fancy a top up on that bet.

hunchman · February 2016

Ave_it said:

hunchman said:

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..
Ave it - LEAVE us in peace if you're in the remain camp!
I'm not going anywhere hunchman! I am Remaining! How are your tips for the FTSE?

Better than your FTSE 8,000 prediction the last time we spoke!

Its a short term correction my friend - the bubble is in the sovereign bond market, not in the stockmarket. 2016 is preparation year or the hors d'oeuvre, 2017 into early 2020 is the plat principal that is going to be served up in spades. I'll be bullish on the Dow if and when we reach around the 13k area, but that's not a given, we may bottom out higher than that - first the Dow needs to take out the 15,370 level at the end of August 2015. S&P 500 made a new low compared to 2015 at the end of January, not the Dow.......somewhat uncertain short term outlook right now.

Ave_it · February 2016

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Ave_it said:

hunchman said:

Pulpstar said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Well, he's bland enough. What's his competence like?
Actually I prefer #priti but as she's LEAVE I can't support her at the moment!
Blimey, you're staying in, Ave it - thought you'd be first on the Leave train..
Ave it - LEAVE us in peace if you're in the remain camp!
I'm not going anywhere hunchman! I am Remaining! How are your tips for the FTSE?
Have you ever joined our new tory party, not obsessed with Europe, Gays etc party. You can be pensions spokesman or indeed our pb Boris (pre leave version)

That's what modern CON is about! Economically conservative! Socially liberal!!!

Toleration with freedom and no handouts for spongers!!!!

The #aveit way!!!

Mortimer · February 2016

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.

Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.

hunchman · February 2016

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.
You're too late, I've already got a £50 / $50 bet on that with someone else, and I wouldn't want to rob you of your hard earned savings:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/cameron-selling-out-britain-pound-to-fall-to-55-cents/

We didn't elect the yearly bearish reversal at 1.4615 as we closed last year at 1.4742....which hints that most of the decline is going to be in 2017....but the test of 1.3965 is imminent. That's where the key level lies that I've referred to as GBPUSD 1.39 over the past week.
I don't think I've ever read such nonsense, or poor English; and I've read some really mainstream tripe over the years...

Each to their own Mortimer!

williamglenn · February 2016

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.

USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.

Wanderer · February 2016

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.

You mean it wouldn't affect the pound in my pocket?

Danny565 · February 2016

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.

So do you think there was no salivating from PBTories in 2008-09 at the political consequences of the financial crash?

hunchman · February 2016

Pulpstar said:

hunchman said:

Philip_Thompson said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Pick a date you think it will happen by. £50 says it won't by end of 2017.
You're too late, I've already got a £50 / $50 bet on that with someone else, and I wouldn't want to rob you of your hard earned savings:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/western_europe/cameron-selling-out-britain-pound-to-fall-to-55-cents/

We didn't elect the yearly bearish reversal at 1.4615 as we closed last year at 1.4742....which hints that most of the decline is going to be in 2017....but the test of 1.3965 is imminent. That's where the key level lies that I've referred to as GBPUSD 1.39 over the past week.
Let me know if you fancy a top up on that bet.

Have already got enough exposure thankyou!

SouthamObserver · February 2016

FrankBooth said:
Any French speakers here? What's Boris saying? He switches between English and French but I think in the last minute he's talking about the EU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OzSvvuCgJ4

I think at one stage he says he'll vote to stay in the EU. At the end he says - with a twinkle in his eye - that there's no chance he'll ever be PM.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

The tables are up

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.

Just ignore Chicken Little. Apparently the world ended last August we just haven't noticed it yet.

Mortimer · February 2016

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.

I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.

Not least the millions of tourists to the US....

Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....

Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars

I.e. Almost everyone.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

YouGov VI (changes since 4th of Feb)

Con 37 (-2)

Lab 30 (+1)

LD 6 (nc)

UKIP 16 (-2)

EPG · February 2016

Danny565 said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
So do you think there was no salivating from PBTories in 2008-09 at the political consequences of the financial crash?

Of course there was. Good economic news? Tractor stats.

Mortimer · February 2016

Danny565 said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
So do you think there was no salivating from PBTories in 2008-09 at the political consequences of the financial crash?

Would have been horrid then, too....

You can criticise the policies, suggest remedies, but celebrating that sort of problem is just not cool.

hunchman · February 2016

SouthamObserver said:

FrankBooth said:
Any French speakers here? What's Boris saying? He switches between English and French but I think in the last minute he's talking about the EU.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OzSvvuCgJ4

I think at one stage he says he'll vote to stay in the EU. At the end he says - with a twinkle in his eye - that there's no chance he'll ever be PM.

OMG - Boris clearly states at 4.03 that he would vote to stay in. I've watched it 3 times to make absolutely sure! That is one hell of a car crash! How long ago was this?!

flightpath01 · February 2016

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.

Not least the millions of tourists to the US....

Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....

Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars

I.e. Almost everyone.

Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2016

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/702271957606207494

nigel4england · February 2016

According to the Express (I know, I know) the Dutch now want a referendum.

The house of cards effect is the big danger for the EU, another Eurocrisis and I think the whole thing is over anyway.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

flightpath01 said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.

Not least the millions of tourists to the US....

Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....

Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars

I.e. Almost everyone.
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.

Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.

hunchman · February 2016

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.

Some people understand the world of foreign exchange much better than others. Exporters would benefit from lower sterling, and for those of a long memory GBPUSD was down at 1.03 in February 1985 and nothing bad happened to the economy then!

runnymede · February 2016

'This poll is the first to be conducted after methodological changes, with greater weight given to people who say they pay little attention to politics'

ha - more made up numbers. I wonder why they felt the need to do that, at this particular time.

hunchman · February 2016

nigel4england said:
According to the Express (I know, I know) the Dutch now want a referendum.

The house of cards effect is the big danger for the EU, another Eurocrisis and I think the whole thing is over anyway.

As I've said before, Schengen was the first of the dominoes to collapse. The eurozone is going to collapse - no common currency without a consolidated debt has ever stood the test of time ...and whither the Euro, whither the EU.

flightpath01 · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

flightpath01 said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.

Not least the millions of tourists to the US....

Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....

Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars

I.e. Almost everyone.
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.
Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.

Of course. But a low exchange rate to the dollar if it were to happen would be an inflationary boost. A strong currency would be a good indicator of a strong economy. A floating echange rate allows a depreciation of currency take the strain of a failing economy but its not a free lunch it comes with a price. Its a mechanism not a cure.

hunchman · February 2016

Philip_Thompson said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
Just ignore Chicken Little. Apparently the world ended last August we just haven't noticed it yet.

Show me on PB where I said the end of the world would be in August 2015?! You might find you spend until time infinity looking!

And I've never predicted the end of the world EVER. I have said that the world will be completely turned upside down over the next 4 years by 2020 compared to what we know with the global sovereign debt crisis. But this great planet of ours will continue, albeit with a very different economic and political environment in 4 years time.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/702271957606207494

I disagree that phone and online were equally bad in 2015. Yes the final polls were but YouGov were consistently and unswervingly awful while many previous phone polls were quite accurate. Had ICM stopped with their penultimate poll they'd have had a much better election. Same can't be said with online.

Tykejohnno · February 2016

Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Telegraph readers 45-55 for Leave @yougov so a key audience. Is reporting both sides (Boris; pro-EU generals); less hostile to PM than Mail

isam · February 2016

If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

flightpath01 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

flightpath01 said:

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Mortimer said:

hunchman said:

Ave_it said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave what a politician, lots of him on the telly preaching economic security and the polls move in favour of Remain,

The Tories are screwed when he goes.
Not when Osborne takes over...
Osborne will be sacked after the forthcoming Budget pensions fiasco!

He tries to punish savers...again
His budget gets voted out by his own MPs...again

Time to go!

#sajid
Greetings Ave it! How are you?!

Osborne should be sacked when GBPUSD falls below 1 - it will be a delicious moment, coming sooner than most people think.
Why would it be delicious?

What makes you think it will happen?
See the article I've just posted.

It would be delicious because the market is going to make a mockery of everything Mr Osborne has been saying about the UK economy for the past 6 years.
Unreal.

Whatever your political views, that sort of economic turmoil would bring pain and sadness on the people. To describe that as delicious is absolutely horrid.
USDGBP at 1 wouldn't be turmoil - it's just a lower exchange rate. The majority of people wouldn't even notice, just as they didn't the last time we hit parity.
I have a feeling the majority of people would notice.

Not least the millions of tourists to the US....

Anyone who buys anything sourced in the US....

Anyone who buys any commodities traded in dollars

I.e. Almost everyone.
Since Mr Glenn seems pretty dim you might have to explain that 'commodities' includes oil.
Though at $30 a barrel the pound falling to parity would make it an equivalent of $43 a barrel. Still incredibly cheap and people will still find fuel to be a lot cheaper than when it was $100 a barrel. So no it may not be that noticeable.
Of course. But a low exchange rate to the dollar if it were to happen would be an inflationary boost. A strong currency would be a good indicator of a strong economy. A floating echange rate allows a depreciation of currency take the strain of a failing economy but its not a free lunch it comes with a price. Its a mechanism not a cure.

Given we are tackling deflation a bit of an inflationary boost could be helpful.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

isam said:
If you genuinely couldn't make your mind up about which way to vote, surely the best thing to do is just not vote at all?

Voting is a responsibility not just a right in my eyes. I'll always vote.

Tykejohnno · February 2016

Britain should vote for Brexit before the inevitable Eurozone meltdown

http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown

flightpath01 · February 2016

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MP_SE said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/702254204509929475
Remain giving one big fuck you to NATO and the USA. Obviously if the EU is so important to our security we should participate in this EU army that will be created at some point...
Considering the USA wants us to Remain I fail to see the fuck you.
The USA wants the UK to remain in the EU for their own selfish reasons. I doubt they particularly care what arguments are deployed by Remain as long as we stay in the EU.

Either way it is incredibly disrespectful to the hundreds of thousands of US soldiers who have been stationed in Europe over the years who were willing to die to protect us.

I need not remind you of the mess the EC made over Yugoslavia. Their inability to react to instability on their doorstep caused the deaths of thousands of people.
The US also bears some responsibility over Yugoslavia; before the fall of communism they poured tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of dollars to ethnic groups inside Yugoslavia to try and stir up conflict and increase the chance of revolution.

Some? Maybe, but not all. The area has been a mess for centuries.

Danny565 · February 2016

Age 18-24
Remain 52%
Leave 17%

Age 65+
Remain 27%
Leave 55%

nigel4england · February 2016

Tykejohnno said:
Britain should vote for Brexit before the inevitable Eurozone meltdown

http://www.cityam.com/235154/britain-should-vote-for-brexit-before-the-inevitable-eurozone-meltdown

I'm guessing he didn't get the memo from Goldman Sachs.

Philip_Thompson · February 2016

runnymede said:
'This poll is the first to be conducted after methodological changes, with greater weight given to people who say they pay little attention to politics'

ha - more made up numbers. I wonder why they felt the need to do that, at this particular time.

Because that is what was identified as the cause if the error last year.

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