We discussed this poll when it first came out didn't we?
Fwiw, to me they seem like not-terrible numbers for Hillary as she has been around so long.
Indeed, she is lucky not one alternative candidate for either party has a net positive rating and her net score is not as negative as it could have been
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
That's a phone poll showing a collapse in REMAIN's lead over LEAVE, down by half
ALEURP'd that's a 2 point lead for Leave 51/49.
What is your formula for ALEURP ?
Add Don't Know to Remain for online polls and to Leave for phone polls.
This rule was based on the realisation that this made both forms of polling produce the same numbers - but in these volatile post deal times it is not so true due to the swings we are seeing. Once things settle down I think ALEURP will once again produce concordance.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Very few Mr Royale, probably none.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Women are notoriously risk averse. During the Indyref you could see women were more doubtful about independence than men.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the aims this time is to boost turnout and make the voters think what Brexit really means.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
had mine covered by 39 and then the bastards introduced uni fees.
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the Remain campaign has a problem in this respect, though, which is: who is going to do the grunt work of canvassing and getting the vote out? It's very clear that the Leave side has a loyal band of Kippers and Conservative activists, who are both experienced and highly motivated. On the Remain side, even though quite a lot of Conservative Party members will vote Remain, I don't think many are sufficiently motivated to campaign actively (and you can see the bile on here which might discourage them). Labour activists are also going to be a bit lacking in enthusiasm, and LibDems probably aren't sufficient in numbers to make up the difference. In any case the Kippers and Tory Leavers will probably find it easier to work together than the rainbow coalition of Remainers will. So, at least in terms of people prepared to pound the streets, I expect Leave to have a big advantage.
Whether the Remain side can overcome this with superior air war and micro-targetting is unclear to me.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Women are notoriously risk averse. During the Indyref you could see women were more doubtful about independence than men.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I took my mortgage out at 22.
I was very fortunate. I had finished uni, got a job in London, I was planning to rent, my parents took out a mortgage with me ( as they didn't want me wasting money on rent) my Grandparents gave me a deposit)
This is the only time I'll ever praise Gordon Brown, thank god for his housing boom.
I bought a house in London in 2000 and sold it in 2007 and moved up North.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
had mine covered by 39 and then the bastards introduced uni fees.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
If Leave win, Farage may be finished.
That is certainly my view.
It would be a political career that would not have ended in failuire
Oh I am not saying he would go because he had been beaten - quite the reverse. He would go because if he had any sense he would see that Brexit was the high point of UKIPs fortunes and it would be all down hill from there as a political party.
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the Remain campaign has a problem in this respect, though, which is: who is going to do the grunt work of canvassing and getting the vote out? It's very clear that the Leave side has a loyal band of Kippers and Conservative activists, who are both experienced and highly motivated. On the Remain side, even though quite a lot of Conservative Party members will vote Remain, I don't think many are sufficiently motivated to campaign actively (and you can see the bile on here which might discourage them). Labour activists are also going to be a bit lacking in enthusiasm, and LibDems probably aren't sufficient in numbers to make up the difference. In any case the Kippers and Tory Leavers will probably find it easier to work together than the rainbow coalition of Remainers will. So, at least in terms of people prepared to pound the streets, I expect Leave to have a big advantage.
Whether the Remain side can overcome this with superior air war and micro-targetting is unclear to me.
Of course Yes had a big advantage on the streets in indyref
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the Remain campaign has a problem in this respect, though, which is: who is going to do the grunt work of canvassing and getting the vote out? It's very clear that the Leave side has a loyal band of Kippers and Conservative activists, who are both experienced and highly motivated. On the Remain side, even though quite a lot of Conservative Party members will vote Remain, I don't think many are sufficiently motivated to campaign actively (and you can see the bile on here which might discourage them). Labour activists are also going to be a bit lacking in enthusiasm, and LibDems probably aren't sufficient in numbers to make up the difference. In any case the Kippers and Tory Leavers will probably find it easier to work together than the rainbow coalition of Remainers will. So, at least in terms of people prepared to pound the streets, I expect Leave to have a big advantage.
Whether the Remain side can overcome this with superior air war and micro-targetting is unclear to me.
Perhaps those on the Remain side might like to ask themselves why so many ordinary people are prepared to give up their time, get out on the streets and campaign for out.
Anyone interested in the EU referendum should be following @ftbrussels on twitter at the moment.
Thanks. Its not clear if it means a watering down from the first (officially released) memo or the second (leaked) memo. First allowed different rules (but no actual mechanism to oppose Eurozone decisions, which is what we need). Second allowed differences within single set of rules.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
Are you buying the property we discussed?
Yup. Exchanged on Friday.
Congratulations. I hope you're very happy in your new home.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
Are you buying the property we discussed?
Yup. Exchanged on Friday.
Congratulations. I hope you're very happy in your new home.
Thanks - just need to get my daughter into the local school now.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
If Leave win, Farage may be finished.
That is certainly my view.
It would be a political career that would not have ended in failuire
Oh I am not saying he would go because he had been beaten - quite the reverse. He would go because if he had any sense he would see that Brexit was the high point of UKIPs fortunes and it would be all down hill from there as a political party.
I know you weren't saying that.. I am saying that in this case, a win for LEAVE and Farage quitting politics, the old saying "All political careers end in failure" would not be true
In fact, it would have been a long term blessing for him that he lost in South Thanet
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Very few Mr Royale, probably none.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
Ahem.... There are some women here. We're not letting the "shouty blokes" have it all their own way.
And as for being risk averse, given that we take men on, that sounds like utter pants. What greater risk than taking a man on who promises you the moon and stars then morphs into a grumpuss wondering if you happen to have a lamb chop about your person.....
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
Are you buying the property we discussed?
Yup. Exchanged on Friday.
Congratulations. I hope you're very happy in your new home.
Thanks - just need to get my daughter into the local school now.
Which one, if that's not too personal a question, were you thinking of? Have put 3 through school in the area.....
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
A Cameron Conservative Government to an Fox/Grayling/Patterson/Whatever Conservative Government will be a pretty big change.
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the aims this time is to boost turnout and make the voters think what Brexit really means.
Because higher turnout helps Remain?
I was amused to read in Tim Ross's book that in the general election the Conservatives tried to avoid speaking to voters who were confirmed antis as they didn't want to do anything that would encourage them to vote. (Perhaps this is old campaigning wisdom and I'm just naive.)
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
That did not happen in 1975, nor in 2014
The 2014 one was a referendum on the SNP though, they are the government in scotland remember? I don't remember the exact numbers for Wilson in 1975 but he did remain neutral, unlike Cameron.
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the Remain campaign has a problem in this respect, though, which is: who is going to do the grunt work of canvassing and getting the vote out? It's very clear that the Leave side has a loyal band of Kippers and Conservative activists, who are both experienced and highly motivated. On the Remain side, even though quite a lot of Conservative Party members will vote Remain, I don't think many are sufficiently motivated to campaign actively (and you can see the bile on here which might discourage them). Labour activists are also going to be a bit lacking in enthusiasm, and LibDems probably aren't sufficient in numbers to make up the difference. In any case the Kippers and Tory Leavers will probably find it easier to work together than the rainbow coalition of Remainers will. So, at least in terms of people prepared to pound the streets, I expect Leave to have a big advantage.
Whether the Remain side can overcome this with superior air war and micro-targetting is unclear to me.
Perhaps those on the Remain side might like to ask themselves why so many ordinary people are prepared to give up their time, get out on the streets and campaign for out.
Why does Labour have far more members than the Tories?
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the aims this time is to boost turnout and make the voters think what Brexit really means.
Because higher turnout helps Remain?
I was amused to read in Tim Ross's book that in the general election the Conservatives tried to avoid speaking to voters who were confirmed antis as they didn't want to do anything that would encourage them to vote. (Perhaps this is old campaigning wisdom and I'm just naive.)
Yes higher turnout helps Remain.
In the good old days of canvassing you knocked on every door/shoved a leaflet through every letterbox in your area.
This time we were given which places to go, and what that particular voters hot topics were.
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
Brown seems to have forgot the time he was ordered to leave the room whilst a Euro-X meeting took place. Just how will we be doing any leading when we are excluded from a huge number of meetings?
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the aims this time is to boost turnout and make the voters think what Brexit really means.
Because higher turnout helps Remain?
I was amused to read in Tim Ross's book that in the general election the Conservatives tried to avoid speaking to voters who were confirmed antis as they didn't want to do anything that would encourage them to vote. (Perhaps this is old campaigning wisdom and I'm just naive.)
Yes higher turnout helps Remain.
In the good old days of canvassing you knocked on every door/shoved a leaflet through every letterbox in your area.
This time we were given which places to go, and what that particular voters hot topics were.
Indeed it does. Which is a problem since the EU not very high on the list of most issues for most people except those who want to Leave, if turnout is the same as the AV referendum then the result will skew towards Leave.
I think a crude measurement is for every 1% percent bellow the GE turnout, Leave gains 0.3%.
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
That did not happen in 1975, nor in 2014
The 2014 one was a referendum on the SNP though, they are the government in scotland remember? I don't remember the exact numbers for Wilson in 1975 but he did remain neutral, unlike Cameron.
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes. The SNP focused almost the entire 2014 campaign on opposition to Westminster
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes.
It was, but Wilson did next to no campaigning for a Yes vote. So there wasn't really a clear option in the referendum to give a kick in the nuts to the PM of the day, as there might be with this referendum if Cameron is as vocal in supporting Remain as it seems.
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
I doubt that people will ignore him. They will simply hear what he says, remember how he was wrong about almost everything, and then choose the alternative.
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
I agree.
The referendum feels like a Conservative event and the debate like one flavour of Conservative talking to (or past) another. (There's a huge danger for the Conservatives in this but I'm not sure they are paying attention to anything outside their own party at present.)
It's hard to see how centre-left voters are going to be engaged by the referendum at all. For the most part they didn't want it and, as you say, both sides seem to have forgotten they exist. Of course, it doesn't help that Labour's current leadership is so inept.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
I was young (28) I had just paid off my mortgage. I decided to be decadent for a few days.
You'd paid off your mortgage by 28?!
That's when I took mine out.
I'll have paid off my mortgage by 40. But only because I'm taking out a bigger one to buy a house...
had mine covered by 39 and then the bastards introduced uni fees.
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
I doubt that people will ignore him. They will simply hear what he says, remember how he was wrong about almost everything, and then choose the alternative.
The engaged left wing voters I have in my circle are fairly sceptical about the EU, seeing it as a neo-liberal, capitalist construct to suppress the workers.
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes.
It was, but Wilson did next to no campaigning for a Yes vote. So there wasn't really a clear option in the referendum to give a kick in the nuts to the PM of the day, as there might be with this referendum if Cameron is as vocal in supporting Remain as it seems.
Cameron is hardly a passionate Europhile either but it was Wilson who called the referendum and Wilson who led the Yes campaign
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Very few Mr Royale, probably none.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
Ahem.... There are some women here. We're not letting the "shouty blokes" have it all their own way.
And as for being risk averse, given that we take men on, that sounds like utter pants. What greater risk than taking a man on who promises you the moon and stars then morphs into a grumpuss wondering if you happen to have a lamb chop about your person.....
Ah yes Miss CF, but you're leave arent you, the question was on women posters who wish to remain.
What I am curious about is how well that micro-targeting approach will work when every single vote in the country is equally important vs a general election where only a few tens of thousands of voters could swing the result.
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
I think the aims this time is to boost turnout and make the voters think what Brexit really means.
Because higher turnout helps Remain?
I was amused to read in Tim Ross's book that in the general election the Conservatives tried to avoid speaking to voters who were confirmed antis as they didn't want to do anything that would encourage them to vote. (Perhaps this is old campaigning wisdom and I'm just naive.)
Yes higher turnout helps Remain.
In the good old days of canvassing you knocked on every door/shoved a leaflet through every letterbox in your area.
This time we were given which places to go, and what that particular voters hot topics were.
Indeed it does. Which is a problem since the EU not very high on the list of most issues for most people except those who want to Leave, if turnout is the same as the AV referendum then the result will skew towards Leave.
I think a crude measurement is for every 1% percent bellow the GE turnout, Leave gains 0.3%.
What? No-one Cares About Europe™ might be a problem for Remain?
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Very few Mr Royale, probably none.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
Ahem.... There are some women here. We're not letting the "shouty blokes" have it all their own way.
And as for being risk averse, given that we take men on, that sounds like utter pants. What greater risk than taking a man on who promises you the moon and stars then morphs into a grumpuss wondering if you happen to have a lamb chop about your person.....
Ah yes Miss CF, but you're leave arent you, the question was on women posters who wish to remain.
Miss P is also leave IIRC
I'm tending towards Leave - but for an Irish-Italian whose mother tongue is not English, if that is where I finally end up, - it will feel very odd and a bit disconcerting, TBH.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
Very few Mr Royale, probably none.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
Ahem.... There are some women here. We're not letting the "shouty blokes" have it all their own way.
And as for being risk averse, given that we take men on, that sounds like utter pants. What greater risk than taking a man on who promises you the moon and stars then morphs into a grumpuss wondering if you happen to have a lamb chop about your person.....
Ah yes Miss CF, but you're leave arent you, the question was on women posters who wish to remain.
Miss P is also leave IIRC
I'm tending towards Leave - but for an Irish-Italian whose mother tongue is not English, if that is where I finally end up, - it will feel very odd and a bit disconcerting, TBH.
I still have a totally open mind on the subject, much like Alistair Meeks :-)
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
Alan Johnson could well prove pivotal in getting Labour voters out for Remain. Given a choice between Cameron, Sturgeon and Johnson for Remain and Farage, Bill Cash and Dennis Skinner for Leave I think that could help sway undecideds
The engaged left wing voters I have in my circle are fairly sceptical about the EU, seeing it as a neo-liberal, capitalist construct to suppress the workers.
They got my vote, but not a lot of other peoples...
Labourites (the full-on ones, not just the folk who happen to vote for them, whose opinions might well be rather more "regressive" on such issues) seem to be a very cosmopolitan, internationalist tribe so far as I can tell. Borders are a bit of an anathema, as far as I can tell, "isolationism" (broadly construed) a terrible sin. Lots of people were ashamed at "British jobs for British workers".
I think support for Leave for left-wing activists is probably going to be pretty minimal. But it wouldn't surprise me if a fair chunk of Labour votes opt for Leave. I expect plenty of message bombardment of the ilk of "right-wingers want to leave Europe so they can scrap human /workers'/minority rights, make the country more American and sell off the NHS... millions of jobs will be lost" will be directed at such people in the hope it'll change their minds.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
LOL at PBTories assuming that just because they will ignore Brown's views, that everyone will ignore them.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
I agree.
The referendum feels like a Conservative event and the debate like one flavour of Conservative talking to (or past) another. (There's a huge danger for the Conservatives in this but I'm not sure they are paying attention to anything outside their own party at present.)
It's hard to see how centre-left voters are going to be engaged by the referendum at all. For the most part they didn't want it and, as you say, both sides seem to have forgotten they exist. Of course, it doesn't help that Labour's current leadership is so inept.
I think you have a point. But if (if!) labour voters do want to stay in the eu (irrespective of what non labour votets think) then they still need to vote Remain.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
I don't want to sound rude but I don't think with my ovaries.
I have had over the years a hell of a lot to do with the EU and EU Directives and also saw a bit of how the game was played with the SEA. And I can smell dishonesty and bullshit a mile away. So I've gradually become more sceptical of the EU and, even more so, of my own government's ability to focus ruthlessly on what is in Britain's best interests.
But one thing which puts me off Leave is Farage with his patronising approach to "the ladies" and his apparent belief that everything in the world is the fault of foreigners.
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
That did not happen in 1975, nor in 2014
The 2014 one was a referendum on the SNP though, they are the government in scotland remember? I don't remember the exact numbers for Wilson in 1975 but he did remain neutral, unlike Cameron.
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes. The SNP focused almost the entire 2014 campaign on opposition to Westminster
Correct. How can anyone say Wilson was neutral in 1975!?
Alan Johnson could well prove pivotal in getting Labour voters out for Remain
It never ceases to amaze me how much this non-entity is talked up on here. I even remember him being predicted to be 'a fine Shadow Chancellor'
He polls well with Labour voters though and does not turn off Tories, if Johnson gets out the Labour vote, Cameron around half of the Tory vote, Farron the LD vote and Sturgeon the SNP vote Remain should win
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
I don't want to sound rude but I don't think with my ovaries.
I have had over the years a hell of a lot to do with the EU and EU Directives and also saw a bit of how the game was played with the SEA. And I can smell dishonesty and bullshit a mile away. So I've gradually become more sceptical of the EU and, even more so, of my own government's ability to focus ruthlessly on what is in Britain's best interests.
But one thing which puts me off Leave is Farage with his patronising approach to "the ladies" and his apparent belief that everything in the world is the fault of foreigners.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
I don't want to sound rude but I don't think with my ovaries.
I have had over the years a hell of a lot to do with the EU and EU Directives and also saw a bit of how the game was played with the SEA. And I can smell dishonesty and bullshit a mile away. So I've gradually become more sceptical of the EU and, even more so, of my own government's ability to focus ruthlessly on what is in Britain's best interests.
But one thing which puts me off Leave is Farage with his patronising approach to "the ladies" and his apparent belief that everything in the world is the fault of foreigners.
I thought you might say that ;-)
I'm trying to respond to this polling evidence in the Evening Standard:
"The high priests will be targeting Head v Hearts most avidly. This is a segment who like the idea of British independence but have conerns over the economy and jobs. Ninety per cent are female; they do not use the BBC website and get most of their news from Facebook. "
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Hmm. Those figures aren't good.
No .... and you hare happy to see the tory party make arses of themselves and usher in a euro friendly labour govt which can renegotiate what it wants with the EU - as could any incoming government at any time.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
I don't find it a patronising question, but I'm afraid I can't answer it.
Nobody in my circles mentions the EU Referendum at all, unprompted. Simply not on the horizon yet, presumably.
It does seem to me that Leave should be careful not to get portrayed as a "nasty foreigners" camp - that's just stupid.
What I think they should be pushing ad infinitum is that, in this referendum, there simply isn't a way of voting for the status quo. But I doubt that belief is based on me being female.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Hmm. Those figures aren't good.
No .... and you hare happy to see the tory party make arses of themselves and usher in a euro friendly labour govt which can renegotiate what it wants with the EU - as could any incoming government at any time.
They would find it a lot more difficult to do so if we have already left.
Like you say, Labour would be a lot more likely to give stuff away to the EU. Only a complete idiot would believe we would never have another Labour government so the best way to stop then giving away more power to the EU is to make sure that by the time they get back into power we are no longer in the EU at all.
I said in the past that this referendum is going to be like all referendums, a referendum on the government.
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government. And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
That did not happen in 1975, nor in 2014
The 2014 one was a referendum on the SNP though, they are the government in scotland remember? I don't remember the exact numbers for Wilson in 1975 but he did remain neutral, unlike Cameron.
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes. The SNP focused almost the entire 2014 campaign on opposition to Westminster
Correct. How can anyone say Wilson was neutral in 1975!?
Of course he was not, he called the referendum to keep Britain in the EEC in the first place
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes.
It was, but Wilson did next to no campaigning for a Yes vote. So there wasn't really a clear option in the referendum to give a kick in the nuts to the PM of the day, as there might be with this referendum if Cameron is as vocal in supporting Remain as it seems.
Cameron is hardly a passionate Europhile either but it was Wilson who called the referendum and Wilson who led the Yes campaign
Wilson was quite low profile if I recall. The YES leader was, if anyone, Roy Jenkins.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Hmm. Those figures aren't good.
No .... and you hare happy to see the tory party make arses of themselves and usher in a euro friendly labour govt which can renegotiate what it wants with the EU - as could any incoming government at any time.
Given the EU's track record on offering second referendas, I struggle to understand why anyone (except the most intergrationalist) would vote Remain at the first offer.
Forgive me for interjecting, but this meme of multiple referendums is popular, frequent, pernicious...and bollocks. For this to happen in the UK the sequence of events would look like this:
OPTION 1 ====== * UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum * UK government refuses to initiate the LEAVE process * UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum
or
OPTION 2 ====== * UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum * UK government initiates the LEAVE process * UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum * Unfortunately, the LEAVE process is automatic and (if memory serves) can only be rescinded by unanimity:all 27 other EU countries have to agree to the abort. Whoops.
In either case, when the Conservative MPs find out that Cameron is plotting to stay via a second referendum, they will flense him and cover his skinless flesh in salt.
I appreciate the "second referendum" scenario appeals to TEH EVUHL EU! meme that is so popular these days. But it really is rubbish.
'Like you say, Labour would be a lot more likely to give stuff away to the EU. Only a complete idiot would believe we would never have another Labour government so the best way to stop then giving away more power to the EU is to make sure that by the time they get back into power we are no longer in the EU at all.'
Spot on.
The PM is busy proving that the Conservatives can't be trusted on the EU, and Labour certainly can't be. The only way people can stop more surrenders to the EU is to take control of the situation and vote LEAVE.
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
Give me a few mins. Last Autumn I drafted but never finished a thread about how women might view the/vote in the EURef.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Hmm. Those figures aren't good.
No .... and you hare happy to see the tory party make arses of themselves and usher in a euro friendly labour govt which can renegotiate what it wants with the EU - as could any incoming government at any time.
They would find it a lot more difficult to do so if we have already left.
Like you say, Labour would be a lot more likely to give stuff away to the EU. Only a complete idiot would believe we would never have another Labour government so the best way to stop then giving away more power to the EU is to make sure that by the time they get back into power we are no longer in the EU at all.
Labour just sign up to everything from inside the EEA. Just how dim do you have to be to miss all that. Talk about pissing into the wind! The eu is not going to go away it will still exert sn influence and if it becomes more monolithic it will exert a stronger one. Glorious isolation is not an optipn.
I wonder to what extent pary loyalties will matter so much, REMAIN will be seen as the massed ranks of the Establishment, right accross the spectrum. The temptation for many to take aim and act appropriately will be considerable!
It says 90% of those interested in sovereignty but worried about the economy and jobs are female. They don't read BBC news (or go much on blogs too, I assume) but do spend a lot of time on social media.
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
I think I will be voting Leave. No ill-will to Europe or Europeans, but ever-closer union does not feel right to me, and it's hard to envisage the EU-crats giving up on their dream destination. Unless, of course, it gives up on them, which I think still may happen.
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
Both your good self and Cyclefree are the honourable exceptions.
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
I don't want to sound rude but I don't think with my ovaries.
I have had over the years a hell of a lot to do with the EU and EU Directives and also saw a bit of how the game was played with the SEA. And I can smell dishonesty and bullshit a mile away. So I've gradually become more sceptical of the EU and, even more so, of my own government's ability to focus ruthlessly on what is in Britain's best interests.
But one thing which puts me off Leave is Farage with his patronising approach to "the ladies" and his apparent belief that everything in the world is the fault of foreigners.
I'm inclined to agree about Mr Farage but all it means to me is that I ignore him. Over the years he's produced some useful information but I filter out the rest.
Wilson was not neutral in 1975, the official position of the government was for Yes.
It was, but Wilson did next to no campaigning for a Yes vote. So there wasn't really a clear option in the referendum to give a kick in the nuts to the PM of the day, as there might be with this referendum if Cameron is as vocal in supporting Remain as it seems.
Cameron is hardly a passionate Europhile either but it was Wilson who called the referendum and Wilson who led the Yes campaign
Wilson was quite low profile if I recall. The YES leader was, if anyone, Roy Jenkins.
Wilson was the official head as PM even if Jenkins and Heath were more vocal
Given the EU's track record on offering second referendas, I struggle to understand why anyone (except the most intergrationalist) would vote Remain at the first offer.
Forgive me for interjecting, but this meme of multiple referendums is popular, frequent, pernicious...and bollocks. For this to happen in the UK the sequence of events would look like this:
OPTION 1 ====== * UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum * UK government refuses to initiate the LEAVE process * UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum
or
OPTION 2 ====== * UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum * UK government initiates the LEAVE process * UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum * Unfortunately, the LEAVE process is automatic and (if memory serves) can only be rescinded by unanimity:all 27 other EU countries have to agree to the abort. Whoops.
In either case, when the Conservative MPs find out that Cameron is plotting to stay via a second referendum, they will flense him and cover his skinless flesh in salt.
I appreciate the "second referendum" scenario appeals to TEH EVUHL EU! meme that is so popular these days. But it really is rubbish.
[edit: fix tags]
Probably option 2, but with an abort mechanism that works.
You may be right on the legalities (and the precedents were pre-Lisbon) but both Ireland and Denmark had second referendums on improved terms and reversed their decision
Comments
Food for thought. How many female Leavers are posting here? And how many silent Remainers are not?
The answer might be that it scales up just fine.
This rule was based on the realisation that this made both forms of polling produce the same numbers - but in these volatile post deal times it is not so true due to the swings we are seeing. Once things settle down I think ALEURP will once again produce concordance.
Were like the Indyref, full of shouty blokes who have made their minds up and won't really change their minds.
That's when I took mine out.
I suspect we'll see a similar trend this time.
https://next.ft.com/content/57172270-d402-11e5-969e-9d801cf5e15b?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product
Anyone interested in the EU referendum should be following @ftbrussels on twitter at the moment.
Whether the Remain side can overcome this with superior air war and micro-targetting is unclear to me.
I was very fortunate. I had finished uni, got a job in London, I was planning to rent, my parents took out a mortgage with me ( as they didn't want me wasting money on rent) my Grandparents gave me a deposit)
This is the only time I'll ever praise Gordon Brown, thank god for his housing boom.
I bought a house in London in 2000 and sold it in 2007 and moved up North.
Thank you Gordon.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/699151178018508800
In fact, it would have been a long term blessing for him that he lost in South Thanet
Voters will still vote Tory in a GE, but on anything else they are free to express their opinion about the government.
And Cameron and his government stink, his favourables are down, his ministers becoming unpopular, and it's being reflected on all the numbers but voting intention for the GE.
Make no mistake, the Tory party will still probably win 37-38% of the vote in the next GE, but they are probably going to lose everything else in between, the referendum included simply because the voters can safely express their disapproval without changing the government.
This is the same pattern that started to show before the GE. Gradual drift down through the age groups.
Labour voters again over-represented in the base sample.
@MirrorPolitics: Gordon Brown on why we need to LEAD Europe and not leave it
https://t.co/FX8DMXWf8O https://t.co/aWmvT8u80i
Ahem.... There are some women here. We're not letting the "shouty blokes" have it all their own way.
And as for being risk averse, given that we take men on, that sounds like utter pants. What greater risk than taking a man on who promises you the moon and stars then morphs into a grumpuss wondering if you happen to have a lamb chop about your person.....
Which one, if that's not too personal a question, were you thinking of? Have put 3 through school in the area.....
I was amused to read in Tim Ross's book that in the general election the Conservatives tried to avoid speaking to voters who were confirmed antis as they didn't want to do anything that would encourage them to vote. (Perhaps this is old campaigning wisdom and I'm just naive.)
I don't remember the exact numbers for Wilson in 1975 but he did remain neutral, unlike Cameron.
In the good old days of canvassing you knocked on every door/shoved a leaflet through every letterbox in your area.
This time we were given which places to go, and what that particular voters hot topics were.
It seems I again have to point out that Tory voters on their own are not going to be enough to win the Referendum either for Leave OR Remain. Yet neither side seems to be interested in winning over Labour voters so far.
Brown seems to have forgot the time he was ordered to leave the room whilst a Euro-X meeting took place. Just how will we be doing any leading when we are excluded from a huge number of meetings?
We will always be on the sidelines.
Which is a problem since the EU not very high on the list of most issues for most people except those who want to Leave, if turnout is the same as the AV referendum then the result will skew towards Leave.
I think a crude measurement is for every 1% percent bellow the GE turnout, Leave gains 0.3%.
Why?
Total delusion
http://order-order.com/2008/08/25/is-brown-bonkers/
He's toxic.
The referendum feels like a Conservative event and the debate like one flavour of Conservative talking to (or past) another. (There's a huge danger for the Conservatives in this but I'm not sure they are paying attention to anything outside their own party at present.)
It's hard to see how centre-left voters are going to be engaged by the referendum at all. For the most part they didn't want it and, as you say, both sides seem to have forgotten they exist. Of course, it doesn't help that Labour's current leadership is so inept.
slow learner :-)
begorrah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOZuxwVk7TU
Ah, ok. No inside knowledge alas.
Then mention TTIP and the NHS.
Miss P is also leave IIRC
Talk about being hoist by your own petard.
Poor Charles.
It does have a good butchers, Kent, though they are very expensive. Bifulco, near me, is much more reasonable and very good indeed.
@BuzzFeedBen: News Corp & @LouiseMensch launching a new site with "no safe spaces" https://t.co/8Uw0aBe7yt
They got my vote, but not a lot of other peoples...
Labourites (the full-on ones, not just the folk who happen to vote for them, whose opinions might well be rather more "regressive" on such issues) seem to be a very cosmopolitan, internationalist tribe so far as I can tell. Borders are a bit of an anathema, as far as I can tell, "isolationism" (broadly construed) a terrible sin. Lots of people were ashamed at "British jobs for British workers".
I think support for Leave for left-wing activists is probably going to be pretty minimal. But it wouldn't surprise me if a fair chunk of Labour votes opt for Leave. I expect plenty of message bombardment of the ilk of "right-wingers want to leave Europe so they can scrap human /workers'/minority rights, make the country more American and sell off the NHS... millions of jobs will be lost" will be directed at such people in the hope it'll change their minds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTE6cTBrGcA
Edited to add: But of course I don't post very much!
(I suppose his biggest win was in making sure the "Keep the pound" referendum never happened in the first place!)
It never ceases to amaze me how much this non-entity is talked up on here. I even remember him being predicted to be 'a fine Shadow Chancellor'
Is there any different approach needed, do you think, for Leave to cut through more to females?
Or is that just patronising?
But if (if!) labour voters do want to stay in the eu (irrespective of what non labour votets think) then they still need to vote Remain.
I have had over the years a hell of a lot to do with the EU and EU Directives and also saw a bit of how the game was played with the SEA. And I can smell dishonesty and bullshit a mile away. So I've gradually become more sceptical of the EU and, even more so, of my own government's ability to focus ruthlessly on what is in Britain's best interests.
But one thing which puts me off Leave is Farage with his patronising approach to "the ladies" and his apparent belief that everything in the world is the fault of foreigners.
I'm trying to respond to this polling evidence in the Evening Standard:
"The high priests will be targeting Head v Hearts most avidly. This is a segment who like the idea of British independence but have conerns over the economy and jobs. Ninety per cent are female; they do not use the BBC website and get most of their news from Facebook. "
Nobody in my circles mentions the EU Referendum at all, unprompted. Simply not on the horizon yet, presumably.
It does seem to me that Leave should be careful not to get portrayed as a "nasty foreigners" camp - that's just stupid.
What I think they should be pushing ad infinitum is that, in this referendum, there simply isn't a way of voting for the status quo. But I doubt that belief is based on me being female.
Like you say, Labour would be a lot more likely to give stuff away to the EU. Only a complete idiot would believe we would never have another Labour government so the best way to stop then giving away more power to the EU is to make sure that by the time they get back into power we are no longer in the EU at all.
OPTION 1
======
* UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum
* UK government refuses to initiate the LEAVE process
* UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum
or
OPTION 2
======
* UK votes to LEAVE in a referendum
* UK government initiates the LEAVE process
* UK government seeks better terms and holds a second referendum
* Unfortunately, the LEAVE process is automatic and (if memory serves) can only be rescinded by unanimity:all 27 other EU countries have to agree to the abort. Whoops.
In either case, when the Conservative MPs find out that Cameron is plotting to stay via a second referendum, they will flense him and cover his skinless flesh in salt.
I appreciate the "second referendum" scenario appeals to TEH EVUHL EU! meme that is so popular these days. But it really is rubbish.
[edit: fix tags]
Spot on.
The PM is busy proving that the Conservatives can't be trusted on the EU, and Labour certainly can't be. The only way people can stop more surrenders to the EU is to take control of the situation and vote LEAVE.
I'll dig out the salient bits.
Glorious isolation is not an optipn.
You may be right on the legalities (and the precedents were pre-Lisbon) but both Ireland and Denmark had second referendums on improved terms and reversed their decision