politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll
I’ve placed my first referendum bet on LEAVE on Betfair at odds slightly longer than 2/1. Today’s phone poll, the first since the Tusk talks, suggests that that trend to BREXIT seen in the online polls is being repeated there.
Well, we've had a tsunami of wholly negative press coverage for Cameron in the last couple of weeks, so some movement is not surprising. The question is whether this is the start of a momentum towards Leave, or a temporary blip.
Given that the campaign hasn't really started - the Remain side haven't yet cranked up the economic risks stuff - I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion for the moment.
On the other side of the coin, concerns about migration will help Leave, even if the logic is dubious at best.
I don't think the renegotiation is going to be particularly significant in the final result either way.
On topic, I expect a late swing of 3-4% to Remain in the final 24-48 hours as Project Fear wears heavy in the ballot box.
So if Leave go into that final twilight period with a lead of 6-8% and TSE, SeanT, Bob Sykes and JohnO have decided (with either heavy or happy hearts) to vote Leave then, and only then, will I believe Leave have a chance.
But I do think it might be now possible to run this close.
Well, we've had a tsunami of wholly negative press coverage for Cameron in the last couple of weeks, so some movement is not surprising. The question is whether this is the start of a momentum towards Leave, or a temporary blip.
Given that the campaign hasn't really started - the Remain side haven't yet cranked up the economic risks stuff - I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion for the moment.
On the other side of the coin, concerns about migration will help Leave, even if the logic is dubious at best.
I don't think the renegotiation is going to be particularly significant in the final result either way.
It pains me to see such an ostensibly eloquent and urbane chap such as Richard N spouting such slavishly pro-EU propaganda on PB.com.
I can feel the tears welling up in my eyes every time I read his posts
I have just had an email from Peter Tatchell via Change.org asking me to support the rights of Hetrosexual Couples to marry in Civil Partnerships like Homosexual Couples.
Always been a big fan of Tatchell personally and like the consistency in his views.
Well, if nothing else, it might stiffen Dave's sinews a bit this week, can't be comfortable reading for him.
He can't do much about migration and the abysmal economic performance of the Eurozone, but he really needs every member of the Commission and people like Martin Schulz to stfu between now and referendum day.
I have just had an email from Peter Tatchell via Change.org asking me to support the rights of Hetrosexual Couples to marry in Civil Partnerships like Homosexual Couples.
Always been a big fan of Tatchell personally and like the consistency in his views.
Totally agree.
He is the best kind of campaigning politician for my money. He's right about that issue too.
On topic, I expect a late swing of 3-4% to Remain in the final 24-48 hours as Project Fear wears heavy in the ballot box.
Agreed.This is the evidence of both Quebec and the indyref.I note Ladbrokes have shortened the odds in their banding market for 45-50% for Remain to 11-4 joint fav with 50-55% and have lengthened the 55-60% and 60-65% to 3-1 and 5-1 respectively.I have kept my punting powder dry for the Euroref so far but will drop into Laddies for my usual dutching bet,taking the 3-1 and 5-1 covering both for 140% profit-my guess is 60-40% for Remain. Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp. Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
On topic, I expect a late swing of 3-4% to Remain in the final 24-48 hours as Project Fear wears heavy in the ballot box.
Agreed.This is the evidence of both Quebec and the indyref.I note Ladbrokes have shortened the odds in their banding market for 45-50% for Remain to 11-4 joint fav with 50-55% and have lengthened the 55-60% and 60-65% to 3-1 and 5-1 respectively.I have kept my punting powder dry for the Euroref so far but will drop into Laddies for my usual dutching bet,taking the 3-1 and 5-1 covering both for 140% profit-my guess is 60-40% for Remain. Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp. Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
Sir John Major is one of Remain's strongest cards. Leave need a mainstream moderate Tory as figurehead.
The oldies in the ComRes EURef phone poll, those of 65+ split REMAIN 39% LEAVE 52%
We all know who bothers to vote...
I do wonder what happens if we vote 52/48 to Leave on a mere 55% turnout, skewed to the elderly.
I suspect that'd be seen as a mandate for the EEA.
A vote of 61/39% Leave on the other hand on a 70% turnout (somewhat unlikely) and the government would have to do something more bespoke.
we get to vote again
any vote for leave and we get to vote again only this time with a better offer than Dave got the last time.
Given the EU's track record on offering second referendas, I struggle to understand why anyone (except the most intergrationalist) would vote Remain at the first offer.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
On topic, I expect a late swing of 3-4% to Remain in the final 24-48 hours as Project Fear wears heavy in the ballot box.
Agreed.This is the evidence of both Quebec and the indyref.I note Ladbrokes have shortened the odds in their banding market for 45-50% for Remain to 11-4 joint fav with 50-55% and have lengthened the 55-60% and 60-65% to 3-1 and 5-1 respectively.I have kept my punting powder dry for the Euroref so far but will drop into Laddies for my usual dutching bet,taking the 3-1 and 5-1 covering both for 140% profit-my guess is 60-40% for Remain. Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp. Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
Sir John Major is one of Remain's strongest cards. Leave need a mainstream moderate Tory as figurehead.
I hope you can be convinced to vote this time.
LEAVE need to counter Major with his own letter showing how his supposed treaty guarantees were circumvented by the EU. It makes clear in his own words how the EU cannot be trusted to stick to any deal.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
There's one other significant detail in this poll that hasn't been commented on (perhaps because it suits no one's narrative):
"Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?
Definitely decided: 57% May change mind: 42% Don't know: 1%"
The 42% is split pretty evenly between Remain and Leave, but those who might change their minds are disproportionately Conservatives (52% of Conservatives).
To put this in context, MORI found with four months to go before the general election last year that 51% of voters might change their mind. By March this figure had dropped to 41%. On the eve of the election the figure was 21%.
A sharp drop/..... Only if you believed the last poll or any poll for that matter.. However it would seem that Labour is still being overstated by ICM by 3-5% according to my gut feel ..
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
On topic, I expect a late swing of 3-4% to Remain in the final 24-48 hours as Project Fear wears heavy in the ballot box.
Agreed.This is the evidence of both Quebec and the indyref.I note Ladbrokes have shortened the odds in their banding market for 45-50% for Remain to 11-4 joint fav with 50-55% and have lengthened the 55-60% and 60-65% to 3-1 and 5-1 respectively.I have kept my punting powder dry for the Euroref so far but will drop into Laddies for my usual dutching bet,taking the 3-1 and 5-1 covering both for 140% profit-my guess is 60-40% for Remain. Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp. Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
The "bankers" aren't backing Remain.
JP, Deutsche and Goldmans are. Because they all have the UK's interests at their heart
The City is pretty split over all - the view is that we'll do okay either way, but that we face a greater existential threat from Remain than we do from Leave.
With just over 4 months to go, anytime soon would be a good time to arrange a PB.com poll of Referendum Remainers and Leavers, with two more polls to be held two months and four month hence (i.e. just before the actual vote). Most importantly, PBers should be asked a supplementary as regards whether they had or had not changed their minds over the previous two months.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
The notion that Tories all back Leave and that Conservatives like myself who are thinking of backing Remain are TINA is just absolute nonsense isn't it?
The oldies in the ComRes EURef phone poll, those of 65+ split REMAIN 39% LEAVE 52%
We all know who bothers to vote...
I do wonder what happens if we vote 52/48 to Leave on a mere 55% turnout, skewed to the elderly.
I suspect that'd be seen as a mandate for the EEA.
A vote of 61/39% Leave on the other hand on a 70% turnout (somewhat unlikely) and the government would have to do something more bespoke.
we get to vote again
any vote for leave and we get to vote again only this time with a better offer than Dave got the last time.
Given the EU's track record on offering second referendas, I struggle to understand why anyone (except the most intergrationalist) would vote Remain at the first offer.
Basic negotiation, innit?
Spot on Charles - vote Leave it's your patriotic duty :-)
There's one other significant detail in this poll that hasn't been commented on (perhaps because it suits no one's narrative):
"Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?
Definitely decided: 57% May change mind: 42% Don't know: 1%"
The 42% is split pretty evenly between Remain and Leave, but those who might change their minds are disproportionately Conservatives (52% of Conservatives).
To put this in context, MORI found with four months to go before the general election last year that 51% of voters might change their mind. By March this figure had dropped to 41%. On the eve of the election the figure was 21%.
"(perhaps because it suits no one's narrative):"
Strange, I had the bloke who wrote the thread header down as an EU fan... #paranoia
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
Well maybe but that's activists, others don't really care that much.
More fun for the Leavers is to persuade the lefties that the first vote doesn't count ( we;ll get another ) and you can kick the toffs by voting Leave.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I understand that. You are a party loyalist, and a big fan of Dave, and I respect that.
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
An electable Cameroon would be better.
I'm not convinced Gove is quite the electoral liability he is made out to be, even though the NUT shouted very loudly about him.
Gove has the same net ratings as Corbyn (-29)
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
I'm also a Gove fan. I don't say he's unelectable out of personal dislike. But he really is hated by far too many people to win an election.
I've tried going into bat for him, explaining that for a liberal-minded person he should actually be the most, not least, appealing Tory. Pointed out that he has undone Grayling's entire oeuvre at the MoJ in a few months. It does no good. He's a bogeyman and not just for die-hard anti-Tories (who don't matter in this game, obviously).
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
If Leave win, Farage may be finished.
That is certainly my view.
It would be a political career that would not have ended in failuire
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
hmmmm
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
I suspect some on the Tory right will try and make it a referendum on Dave. The ones who were never reconciled to his leadership and preferred the halcyon days of the leadership of IDS.
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
If Leave win, Farage may be finished.
That is certainly my view.
In the long run we are all finished, but I don't see that Farage would be in the aftermath of Leave. He would be bask in the aura of success and - going out on a limb here - I think he would fail to resist the temptation to pose as the author of victory.
Also, if the Leave vote is principally inspired by immigration that issue won't go away so he'll still have a signature issue to campaign on.
I'll be honest, I fully expect Dave to appeal to Tories like me to trust him and back him on the referendum.
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
I'm sure he'll be on the phone soon offering you a peerage for some juicy 'Isn't Dave Great' threads.
I now fancy being an MP. For years I didn't fancy it.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
Will you have a butler like his predecessor?
No.
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
Why on earth would you waste money like that?
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"
Did Mori do Scottish Indy ref polling and did they ask the "have you made up your mind question" as that would be fascinating given the Polling trends.
Comments
Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.
Help to Buy has increased #ukhousing supply: New research for @Helptobuy @CommunitiesUK https://t.co/NiZVx4VhQ1
Remain 45%
Leave 55%
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-02-15/anti-eu-campaigners-welcome-poll-findings/
Given that the campaign hasn't really started - the Remain side haven't yet cranked up the economic risks stuff - I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion for the moment.
On the other side of the coin, concerns about migration will help Leave, even if the logic is dubious at best.
I don't think the renegotiation is going to be particularly significant in the final result either way.
Lets hope it carries on at that rate.
So if Leave go into that final twilight period with a lead of 6-8% and TSE, SeanT, Bob Sykes and JohnO have decided (with either heavy or happy hearts) to vote Leave then, and only then, will I believe Leave have a chance.
But I do think it might be now possible to run this close.
Complains to council about disabled access to her council house.
Gets a ramp fitted - *crying* https://t.co/zbZ0v6sC4i
I can feel the tears welling up in my eyes every time I read his posts
Honestly, you are like Boris Johnson.
I fully expect you to come on here the day after and confess you voted Remain.
I hope you surprise me but I'm not holding my breath.
I have just had an email from Peter Tatchell via Change.org asking me to support the rights of Hetrosexual Couples to marry in Civil Partnerships like Homosexual Couples.
Always been a big fan of Tatchell personally and like the consistency in his views.
The polling data table is brill and much appreciated, however, any chance of it in graph format please as I enjoy watching the gap shrink.
Remain leads 48% 42% In Wales with Comres a fraction less than the 49% 42% it leads in England
REMAIN 39%
LEAVE 52%
We all know who bothers to vote...
Strong lead for REMAIN (= Labour) round about Christmas/New Year
Then, the LEAVE side (= Tories) eating into their lead during the spring.
Then we will have all the
useful idiotspolitical pundits predicting it will be too close to call come Referendum Day (=Election Day)A shock exit poll leads to Eddie Izzard threatening to eat his stilettos (=Paddy Ashdown threatening to eat his hat )
Followed by the realisation that LEAVE (=Tories) will win an overall majority!
I'll post a picture of my postal ballot when I fill it in.
I suspect that'd be seen as a mandate for the EEA.
A vote of 61/39% Leave on the other hand on a 70% turnout (somewhat unlikely) and the government would have to do something more bespoke.
If I were a drinker, I would have cracked open a fair few bottles of bubbly as the results came in from around the country on the morning of May 8th!
Well, if nothing else, it might stiffen Dave's sinews a bit this week, can't be comfortable reading for him.
He can't do much about migration and the abysmal economic performance of the Eurozone, but he really needs every member of the Commission and people like Martin Schulz to stfu between now and referendum day.
REMAIN = The Dominion
LEAVE = The Marquis
He is the best kind of campaigning politician for my money. He's right about that issue too.
LEAVE = Commander Data elbowing the warp plasma manifold
any vote for leave and we get to vote again only this time with a better offer than Dave got the last time.
On #PresidentsDay: What kind of presidents the voters think the 2016 candidates would make https://t.co/KK60oYN5Io https://t.co/2EK2UDFPQC
Trump worse off because of such a high number saying terrible, but Hillary ain't exactly the second coming either.
Edit: and those numbers are truly appalling for Bush
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp.
Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
Does the referendum still make you melancholic? If so I'll keep distracting you...
The Tory numbers just look wrong?
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
Spanish civil servant accused of skipping work for 6 years - CBS News https://t.co/dWqYBWqVVa
I hope you can be convinced to vote this time.
Basic negotiation, innit?
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
There's one other significant detail in this poll that hasn't been commented on (perhaps because it suits no one's narrative):
"Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?
Definitely decided: 57%
May change mind: 42%
Don't know: 1%"
The 42% is split pretty evenly between Remain and Leave, but those who might change their minds are disproportionately Conservatives (52% of Conservatives).
To put this in context, MORI found with four months to go before the general election last year that 51% of voters might change their mind. By March this figure had dropped to 41%. On the eve of the election the figure was 21%.
But I agree he is still (wrongly) seen as a trustworthy figure by the voters. Leave would need to do something about that.
JP, Deutsche and Goldmans are. Because they all have the UK's interests at their heart
The City is pretty split over all - the view is that we'll do okay either way, but that we face a greater existential threat from Remain than we do from Leave.
Most importantly, PBers should be asked a supplementary as regards whether they had or had not changed their minds over the previous two months.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Just look at how awful his figure are amongst Republicans.
(Actually she tried, but they didn't have a phone number on his website)
Strange, I had the bloke who wrote the thread header down as an EU fan... #paranoia
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
REMAIN 58%
LEAVE 33%
DE
REMAIN 41%
LEAVE 45%
We all know who bother to vote there too!!
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ITV-News_EU-Referendum-Poll_15-February-2016.pdf
More fun for the Leavers is to persuade the lefties that the first vote doesn't count ( we;ll get another ) and you can kick the toffs by voting Leave.
Smash the Tories vote out!
I've tried going into bat for him, explaining that for a liberal-minded person he should actually be the most, not least, appealing Tory. Pointed out that he has undone Grayling's entire oeuvre at the MoJ in a few months. It does no good. He's a bogeyman and not just for die-hard anti-Tories (who don't matter in this game, obviously).
Hillary -9%
Sanders -5%
Trump -21%
Cruz -3%
Rubio -5%
Bush -25%
Kasich -11%
Carson -8%
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/699301735186223108/photo/1
I'm in awe of these chaps. Their attention to detail is amazing.
If Remain does win (comfortably) it'll be down to them.
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/cant-decide-how-youll-vote-the-microelectioneers-already-know-a3180496.html
Also, if the Leave vote is principally inspired by immigration that issue won't go away so he'll still have a signature issue to campaign on.
Fwiw, to me they seem like not-terrible numbers for Hillary as she has been around so long.
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"