politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef ph
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN leads drops by 10% in first post-Tusk talks EURef phone poll
I’ve placed my first referendum bet on LEAVE on Betfair at odds slightly longer than 2/1. Today’s phone poll, the first since the Tusk talks, suggests that that trend to BREXIT seen in the online polls is being repeated there.
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Dave is at his best when the pressure is on.
Help to Buy has increased #ukhousing supply: New research for @Helptobuy @CommunitiesUK https://t.co/NiZVx4VhQ1
Remain 45%
Leave 55%
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-02-15/anti-eu-campaigners-welcome-poll-findings/
Given that the campaign hasn't really started - the Remain side haven't yet cranked up the economic risks stuff - I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion for the moment.
On the other side of the coin, concerns about migration will help Leave, even if the logic is dubious at best.
I don't think the renegotiation is going to be particularly significant in the final result either way.
Lets hope it carries on at that rate.
So if Leave go into that final twilight period with a lead of 6-8% and TSE, SeanT, Bob Sykes and JohnO have decided (with either heavy or happy hearts) to vote Leave then, and only then, will I believe Leave have a chance.
But I do think it might be now possible to run this close.
Complains to council about disabled access to her council house.
Gets a ramp fitted - *crying* https://t.co/zbZ0v6sC4i
I can feel the tears welling up in my eyes every time I read his posts
Honestly, you are like Boris Johnson.
I fully expect you to come on here the day after and confess you voted Remain.
I hope you surprise me but I'm not holding my breath.
I have just had an email from Peter Tatchell via Change.org asking me to support the rights of Hetrosexual Couples to marry in Civil Partnerships like Homosexual Couples.
Always been a big fan of Tatchell personally and like the consistency in his views.
The polling data table is brill and much appreciated, however, any chance of it in graph format please as I enjoy watching the gap shrink.
Remain leads 48% 42% In Wales with Comres a fraction less than the 49% 42% it leads in England
REMAIN 39%
LEAVE 52%
We all know who bothers to vote...
Strong lead for REMAIN (= Labour) round about Christmas/New Year
Then, the LEAVE side (= Tories) eating into their lead during the spring.
Then we will have all the
useful idiotspolitical pundits predicting it will be too close to call come Referendum Day (=Election Day)A shock exit poll leads to Eddie Izzard threatening to eat his stilettos (=Paddy Ashdown threatening to eat his hat )
Followed by the realisation that LEAVE (=Tories) will win an overall majority!
I'll post a picture of my postal ballot when I fill it in.
I suspect that'd be seen as a mandate for the EEA.
A vote of 61/39% Leave on the other hand on a 70% turnout (somewhat unlikely) and the government would have to do something more bespoke.
If I were a drinker, I would have cracked open a fair few bottles of bubbly as the results came in from around the country on the morning of May 8th!
Well, if nothing else, it might stiffen Dave's sinews a bit this week, can't be comfortable reading for him.
He can't do much about migration and the abysmal economic performance of the Eurozone, but he really needs every member of the Commission and people like Martin Schulz to stfu between now and referendum day.
REMAIN = The Dominion
LEAVE = The Marquis
He is the best kind of campaigning politician for my money. He's right about that issue too.
LEAVE = Commander Data elbowing the warp plasma manifold
any vote for leave and we get to vote again only this time with a better offer than Dave got the last time.
On #PresidentsDay: What kind of presidents the voters think the 2016 candidates would make https://t.co/KK60oYN5Io https://t.co/2EK2UDFPQC
Trump worse off because of such a high number saying terrible, but Hillary ain't exactly the second coming either.
Edit: and those numbers are truly appalling for Bush
I may go all ponceyboots gaylord at that time and waver for a bit.
I suspect I won't be the only one. Particularly if Liam For Fox's sake is being spoken as Dave's replacement for Dave straight after a Leave vote.
but now you're drifiting in making it a referendum on Dave. Risky if the lefties decide they want to play the game.
Once Project Fear takes hold,the oldies especially will vote for the status quo as the UK is essentially a nation of conservatives who are not keen on change per se.I hope too for a very prominent role for Sir John Major who,to my mind,has been the most effective communicator yet in support of Remain.Crucially,the bankers have backed Remain as well and unless Leave can ditch toxic Farage from the scene,he will be the best recruiting seargeant for the Remain camp.
Personally,I voted No in 1975 and currently am in the undecided camp and will need persuasion to vote at all.
Does the referendum still make you melancholic? If so I'll keep distracting you...
The Tory numbers just look wrong?
I had a similar conversation with a friend over text who's Treasurer for a North London Constituency Association and was at the CCHQ victory celebrations. He had been torn for weeks.
He reluctantly confided to me that he felt had no choice but to back Leave.
What we really need is a Cameroon coming out for Leave, like Gove.
Spanish civil servant accused of skipping work for 6 years - CBS News https://t.co/dWqYBWqVVa
I hope you can be convinced to vote this time.
Basic negotiation, innit?
I suspect Farage will say something similar.
At conference I was amazed how many long standing Leavers were going to vote Remain because they just couldn't stomach Farage's smug face the day after Leave had won.
There's one other significant detail in this poll that hasn't been commented on (perhaps because it suits no one's narrative):
"Have you definitely decided which way you will vote at the referendum or may you still change your mind?
Definitely decided: 57%
May change mind: 42%
Don't know: 1%"
The 42% is split pretty evenly between Remain and Leave, but those who might change their minds are disproportionately Conservatives (52% of Conservatives).
To put this in context, MORI found with four months to go before the general election last year that 51% of voters might change their mind. By March this figure had dropped to 41%. On the eve of the election the figure was 21%.
But I agree he is still (wrongly) seen as a trustworthy figure by the voters. Leave would need to do something about that.
JP, Deutsche and Goldmans are. Because they all have the UK's interests at their heart
The City is pretty split over all - the view is that we'll do okay either way, but that we face a greater existential threat from Remain than we do from Leave.
Most importantly, PBers should be asked a supplementary as regards whether they had or had not changed their minds over the previous two months.
So Dave, if you make me your successor in Witney.
IDS who is considered the worst Tory leader in recent memory is at minus 22.
I adore Gove, but those numbers indicate a disastrous night for the Tories in 2020 if Gove is leader and Labour are led by someone like Dan Jarvis
Just look at how awful his figure are amongst Republicans.
(Actually she tried, but they didn't have a phone number on his website)
Strange, I had the bloke who wrote the thread header down as an EU fan... #paranoia
A few years ago, I stayed in a London hotel, and you could have a butler for an extra £200 a night.
So I hired one, just to see what it would be like, after the novelty wore off, it was just a bit awkward, and you wished he'd bugger off.
REMAIN 58%
LEAVE 33%
DE
REMAIN 41%
LEAVE 45%
We all know who bother to vote there too!!
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/ITV-News_EU-Referendum-Poll_15-February-2016.pdf
More fun for the Leavers is to persuade the lefties that the first vote doesn't count ( we;ll get another ) and you can kick the toffs by voting Leave.
Smash the Tories vote out!
I've tried going into bat for him, explaining that for a liberal-minded person he should actually be the most, not least, appealing Tory. Pointed out that he has undone Grayling's entire oeuvre at the MoJ in a few months. It does no good. He's a bogeyman and not just for die-hard anti-Tories (who don't matter in this game, obviously).
Hillary -9%
Sanders -5%
Trump -21%
Cruz -3%
Rubio -5%
Bush -25%
Kasich -11%
Carson -8%
https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/699301735186223108/photo/1
I'm in awe of these chaps. Their attention to detail is amazing.
If Remain does win (comfortably) it'll be down to them.
http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/cant-decide-how-youll-vote-the-microelectioneers-already-know-a3180496.html
Also, if the Leave vote is principally inspired by immigration that issue won't go away so he'll still have a signature issue to campaign on.
Fwiw, to me they seem like not-terrible numbers for Hillary as she has been around so long.
Although, since you know my surname, I thought you might appreciate this anecdote:
Back when the Karadordevics were still trying to reclaim their throne (Yugoslavia) my parents gave a small dinner for Tommy and Linda to introduce him to a few people.
We had a last minute drop out, so invited the Bishop of Basingstoke (utter prat) to make up numbers.
As my mother was carrying a bowls of potatoes around, he looked at her and said "you know, I've never been served by a ***** before". Cue utter embarrassment, until Tommy jumped up, grabbed a plate of carrots and offered them to him saying "and I bet you've never been served by a Prince either!"