politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE moves into lead for 1st time in ICM’s EURef tracker
Comments
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I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.
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What does Russian military activity have to do with any 'cycles', or predictions? Looks more like a simple coincidence.hunchman said:
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.watford30 said:
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?hunchman said:
...snip...
You can check out the record of the 1000 pi day cycle (3,141 days or 8.605 years - 23rd February 2007 was the day the index of subprime mortgage debt topped out, late 1998 was the Russian financial crisis, and late 1989 was the Japanese stockmarket top....so this cycle always seems to pick out something important. The war cycle is rising, Russia starting bombing in Syria on the turn date of 1st October last year was a mainfestation of that. Behind apparent chaos, there is a hidden order to events as cycles throughout history attest. Clearly by your attitude, you don't want to see that, in that case that's your loss not mine.
Rats and bats will crawl through the wainscoting, uttering their message of despair unto the people of Judah.0 -
I am no Cameroon, but I think Dave has handled this very badly. His pretend deal has managed to annoy both the Leavers and the existing Remainers (who were in a majority).isam said:Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?
The Leavers would not be happy even if Dave had the EU commissioners licking his boots ( see the bastard getting his boots cleaned for free...) but the Remainers in the LDs, SNP, PC and Labour are not impressed by his hypocritical and ineffectual posturing.0 -
Pah, Jezza has never flinched from opening another war on another front, you speak with forked tongue Mr P.NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
@bbclaurak: Govt likely to impose #juniordocs contract in next couple of days, perhaps as early as tmrw0
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No doubt we will ride to the rescue.foxinsoxuk said:
I am no Cameroon, but I think Dave has handled this very badly. His pretend deal has managed to annoy both the Leavers and the existing Remainers (who were in a majority).isam said:Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?
The Leavers would not be happy even if Dave had the EU commissioners licking his boots ( see the bastard getting his boots cleaned for free...) but the Remainers in the LDs, SNP, PC and Labour are not impressed by his hypocritical and ineffectual posturing.0 -
why dont you just fk off and join the Tories ? :-)Jonathan said:
No doubt we will ride to the rescue.foxinsoxuk said:
I am no Cameroon, but I think Dave has handled this very badly. His pretend deal has managed to annoy both the Leavers and the existing Remainers (who were in a majority).isam said:Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?
The Leavers would not be happy even if Dave had the EU commissioners licking his boots ( see the bastard getting his boots cleaned for free...) but the Remainers in the LDs, SNP, PC and Labour are not impressed by his hypocritical and ineffectual posturing.
Klassenverrater0 -
I don't think that the EU is an issue that Corbyn is very bothered by either way. It is way down his agenda, but he will come out for Remain, albeit with quite a different set of reforms in mind.Alanbrooke said:
Pah, Jezza has never flinched from opening another war on another front, you speak with forked tongue Mr P.NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
Well Eric from Nuneaton might not agree. then what ?foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think that the EU is an issue that Corbyn is very bothered by either way. It is way down his agenda, but he will come out for Remain, albeit with quite a different set of reforms in mind.Alanbrooke said:
Pah, Jezza has never flinched from opening another war on another front, you speak with forked tongue Mr P.NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
That would be a very stupid move, not least because the recruitment round for August is underway.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt likely to impose #juniordocs contract in next couple of days, perhaps as early as tmrw
Actually the BMA proposal (supported by the NHS employers and vetoed by Hunt) is not a bad deal, and is cost neutral. See this graphic:
http://www.bma.org.uk/~/asset/4/13924.ashx0 -
Sack Hunt would be a useful starter for 10TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato
You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
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Let me try. Cameron wants to retire from politics. He also wanted an easy life. He was forced to do the referendum. Therefore completing the referendum and keeping us in was the choice of a man wanting an easy smooth exit. It was in line with the establishment and would enable him to retire gracefully. Wanting an easy life with Europe he only appointed europhiles such as Liddington and not the eurosceptic Mark Francois who had the job in opposition. His first Foreign Minister was Billy Vague, good for an after dinner speech but a man lacking any strategic thoughts. Other people Cameron surrounded himself with such as Ed Llewelyn etc a former worker for Paddy Ashdown, who is also a europhile. So along with Osborne, Cameron kept his friends happy and set off on his own exit journey, an exit from politics. Unfortunately by only involving europhiles in the negotiations he has managed to gain SFA.SeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
.... On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
...
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.
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I just tried reading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com and it reads like timecube.comhunchman said:
I think the outcomes of the 1840's and the 1930's on this 86 year cycle are well known to those who know their history, don't you?
And you would be happy to be tried under Judge Owen?! Pull the other one. The US government got a hissy fit because he wouldn't turn over his models that they wanted. If his models weren't any good, then why would they want them?! From a man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash to the day, the high in Japanese equities at the end of 1989, the roadmap presented at his 1999 conference including the dot com bubble, 2008 and the European crisis in 2011/2012, I have more faith in his forecasting than I would have in you! And because he was so good, he made a lot of powerful enemies including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like. I see that 5 out of 6 Goldman forecasts at the start of this year and their trades thereupon have already been reversed out.0 -
Hunt has really screwed this up.0
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Eric from Nuneaton may not agree, but since when has that bothered Jezza?Alanbrooke said:
Well Eric from Nuneaton might not agree. then what ?foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think that the EU is an issue that Corbyn is very bothered by either way. It is way down his agenda, but he will come out for Remain, albeit with quite a different set of reforms in mind.Alanbrooke said:
Pah, Jezza has never flinched from opening another war on another front, you speak with forked tongue Mr P.NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
Well the government keep going on about efficiency and the main thing against it is that it wouldn't be as efficient. We already have an army of accountants just to deal with the internal markets. Factor in a whole host of insurance companies as well...taffys said:''In my experience nearly all insurance is a rip off, and of course if they won't insure you you're stuffed.''
I don;t think even the most ardent tory wants the US system, but what is so wrong with a French/German/Belgian type arrangement??0 -
LOL expalins why he didnt get the seatfoxinsoxuk said:
Eric from Nuneaton may not agree, but since when has that bothered Jezza?Alanbrooke said:
Well Eric from Nuneaton might not agree. then what ?foxinsoxuk said:
I don't think that the EU is an issue that Corbyn is very bothered by either way. It is way down his agenda, but he will come out for Remain, albeit with quite a different set of reforms in mind.Alanbrooke said:
Pah, Jezza has never flinched from opening another war on another front, you speak with forked tongue Mr P.NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
His legacy will be tarnished even more if you ask me when the details of his 1989 trip to South Africa come out, as well as the activities that happen on Finchley Road.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.0 -
Well he may figure that defeating the "awesome" Brown and Miliband, who could he lose to?NorfolkTilIDie said:
Think he just overestimated his salesman ability. He thought the press and public would fool for the spin.SeanT said:
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.david_herdson said:
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.
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Armstrong's wikipedia entry is fun.Alistair said:
I just tried reading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com and it reads like timecube.comhunchman said:
I think the outcomes of the 1840's and the 1930's on this 86 year cycle are well known to those who know their history, don't you?
And you would be happy to be tried under Judge Owen?! Pull the other one. The US government got a hissy fit because he wouldn't turn over his models that they wanted. If his models weren't any good, then why would they want them?! From a man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash to the day, the high in Japanese equities at the end of 1989, the roadmap presented at his 1999 conference including the dot com bubble, 2008 and the European crisis in 2011/2012, I have more faith in his forecasting than I would have in you! And because he was so good, he made a lot of powerful enemies including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like. I see that 5 out of 6 Goldman forecasts at the start of this year and their trades thereupon have already been reversed out.
'Armstrong was indicted in 1999, and was ordered by judge Richard Owen to turn over a number of gold bars, computers, and antiquities that had been bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong0 -
You can check out the record of the 1000 pi day cycle (3,141 days or 8.605 years - 23rd February 2007 was the day the index of subprime mortgage debt topped out, late 1998 was the Russian financial crisis, and late 1989 was the Japanese stockmarket top....so this cycle always seems to pick out something important. The war cycle is rising, Russia starting bombing in Syria on the turn date of 1st October last year was a mainfestation of that. Behind apparent chaos, there is a hidden order to events as cycles throughout history attest. Clearly by your attitude, you don't want to see that, in that case that's your loss not mine.Sean_F said:
What does Russian military activity have to do with any 'cycles', or predictions? Looks more like a simple coincidence.hunchman said:
No I was not - I was predicting that from the start of October would be when things would start turning down. Well on the 1st October, Russia started bombing in Syria raising geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Tensions have been rising in Europe over the refugee crisis, and global economic worries have been rising as well......so I think my prediction dated from around May 2014 has worked out very well so far thank you.watford30 said:
You were predicting the end of the world last Autumn. How did that turn out?hunchman said:
...snip...
Rats and bats will crawl through the wainscoting, uttering their message of despair unto the people of Judah.
They're porky pie cycles.0 -
You don't understand communications do you.Chris_A said:
Sack Hunt would be a useful starter for 10TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato
You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
You're too close to it, too emotionally invested.
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1. I heard on the radio today a chap from the NHS denying that they supported the BMA proposal.foxinsoxuk said:
That would be a very stupid move, not least because the recruitment round for August is underway.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt likely to impose #juniordocs contract in next couple of days, perhaps as early as tmrw
Actually the BMA proposal (supported by the NHS employers and vetoed by Hunt) is not a bad deal, and is cost neutral. See this graphic:
http://www.bma.org.uk/~/asset/4/13924.ashx
2. Is it true that this new contract could/would only be forced on new doctors and new appointments.
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Because Gorgeous George is a fantastically successful winner of elections. He can persuade nearly anyone of what he thinks you wish to believe at that time. Unfortunately, once elected he only wants opportunities to promote himself or his pet projects which is why he gets unelected at the next election.oldpolitics said:
Why would Khan be worried about Galloway? Ensures turnout from people who might otherwise stay at home, most of whose second preferences surely go to the left-wing Muslim regardless of what Galloway says?Tissue_Price said:Interesting from Nick Cohen - anyone care to guess what Galloway will actually poll? 3%?
Khan’s supporters dismiss Galloway’s political organisation as little more than a Twitter feed these days. But in their hearts they must be worried. Galloway is capable of winning a substantial vote. He came from nowhere to take parliamentary seats, first in Tower Hamlets and then in Bradford. His supporters are unlikely to make Khan their second preference, after Galloway has spent the campaign attacking Khan’s supposed treasons. More to the point Galloway’s prejudices are the prejudices of London’s Corbynites, the people Khan needs to campaign for him.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/would-jeremy-corbyn-prefer-george-galloway-to-be-mayor-of-london/
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you really are cuckooHYUFD said:
Eddie Izzard actually won his last referendum when he campaigned for No in indyref, so he is not as bad luck as you make outTCPoliticalBetting said:Good news for the Leave campaigns.
http://order-order.com/2016/02/10/lipstick-kiss-of-death-bse-wheel-out-eddie/
"Eddie Izzard has been wheeled out by the Remain campaign tonight"0 -
After the trick he pulled in Iowa saying Carson had pulled out when he hadn't, I'd touch him as much as a bargepolePulpstar said:https://www.tedcruz.org/south-carolina/
Cruzin' for victory.0 -
I'm not convinced that they are all truebelievers in the European project. The EU stands against the people of Europe, on the side of the establishment - good Socialist reasons to vote Leave, and there are supposedly a few Socialists in the Shad Cab these days...NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
You mean the trip to SA that was revealed in 2009?hunchman said:
His legacy will be tarnished even more if you ask me when the details of his 1989 trip to South Africa come out, as well as the activities that happen on Finchley Road.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
When you're a communicator rather than a die in a ditch principles man, you have an added teflon coating. Thus Major, Blair and Cameron have survived what would fell others.0 -
Which leads me to ponder why the main likely "outers" aren't in the shadow cabinet. Kate Hoey is obvious, John Cryer I guess would rather Chair the PLP, Graham Stringer is too disloyal even for Corbyn. But what has Kelvin Hopkins done wrong apart from be a bit old?NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
I amazed that a man with a model that precisely predict major economic up and down turns would need to ever cover trading loses.watford30 said:
Armstrong's wikipedia entry is fun.Alistair said:
I just tried reading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com and it reads like timecube.comhunchman said:
I think the outcomes of the 1840's and the 1930's on this 86 year cycle are well known to those who know their history, don't you?
And you would be happy to be tried under Judge Owen?! Pull the other one. The US government got a hissy fit because he wouldn't turn over his models that they wanted. If his models weren't any good, then why would they want them?! From a man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash to the day, the high in Japanese equities at the end of 1989, the roadmap presented at his 1999 conference including the dot com bubble, 2008 and the European crisis in 2011/2012, I have more faith in his forecasting than I would have in you! And because he was so good, he made a lot of powerful enemies including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like. I see that 5 out of 6 Goldman forecasts at the start of this year and their trades thereupon have already been reversed out.
'Armstrong was indicted in 1999, and was ordered by judge Richard Owen to turn over a number of gold bars, computers, and antiquities that had been bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong0 -
You think Hunt's winning the communications battle? 66% of the public support the strikes...Mortimer said:
You don't understand communications do you.Chris_A said:
Sack Hunt would be a useful starter for 10TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato
You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
You're too close to it, too emotionally invested.
The BMA and the health sector in general will never trust another word he says. It's no doubt a winning line in communications in your eyes to alienate 90% of your workforce.0 -
It's pretty clear Hunt's going nowhere. And the contract will be imposed.Mortimer said:
You don't understand communications do you.Chris_A said:
Sack Hunt would be a useful starter for 10TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato
You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
You're too close to it, too emotionally invested.
A new generation will find the lure of medicine and the eventual rewards of becoming a Consultant too irresistible to say No. As ancient NHS working practices are dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century.
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Quite.Mortimer said:
You mean the trip to SA that was revealed in 2009?hunchman said:
His legacy will be tarnished even more if you ask me when the details of his 1989 trip to South Africa come out, as well as the activities that happen on Finchley Road.SeanT said:
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.Sean_F said:
Very incompetent.foxinsoxuk said:
It is all about Tory internals.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The Conservative party does not tolerate losing Leaders.Omnium said:
Cameron will not be forced out. He will though lose the power to decide.TCPoliticalBetting said:
On the contrary. If Cameron loses he will be forced out and there will be changes at the top of Government including a new PM.Luckyguy1983 said:I did say here a wee while ago (not that I deserve credit because I didn't say it particularly emphatically, much less bet on it) that this was very different to the election in that there is no risk of a change of Government.
If Cameron prophesies doom too much (a plague of locusts next?), it reflects badly on his own Government's ability to run a country.
A Tory leading the 'Leave' campaign, if successful, will be the next leader. They all know this. The last and biggest beast wins.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
And all that, after he pre-sold it to the country as a *fundamental reworking of our EU membership*.
Just terrible politics. Terrible statesmanship. The stuff he is meant to be good at.
His legacy is forever tarnished now. He must know this. Even if he wins, he will be slighted, and if he loses....
Phenomenal. What was he thinking.
When you're a communicator rather than a die in a ditch principles man, you have an added teflon coating. Thus Major, Blair and Cameron have survived what would fell others.0 -
Not especially, but what I said was that you don't understand comms.Chris_A said:
You think Hunt's winning the communications battle? 66% of the public support the strikes...Mortimer said:
You don't understand communications do you.Chris_A said:
Sack Hunt would be a useful starter for 10TCPoliticalBetting said:Plato
You know a lot about communications, what would be your advice to Hunt over this junior doctor contract? I view the nhs communications strategy and tactics as woeful.
You're too close to it, too emotionally invested.
The BMA and the health sector in general will never trust another word he says. It's no doubt a winning line in communications in your eyes to alienate 90% of your workforce.
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.0 -
2. Yes new appointments only but junior doctors, especially early on in their careers, change jobs every few months. Once their foundation years are out of the way then there's always locuming. Look expectantly to the wage bill spiralling completely out of control towards the end of the parliament because of the agency staff costs.TCPoliticalBetting said:
1. I heard on the radio today a chap from the NHS denying that they supported the BMA proposal.foxinsoxuk said:
That would be a very stupid move, not least because the recruitment round for August is underway.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt likely to impose #juniordocs contract in next couple of days, perhaps as early as tmrw
Actually the BMA proposal (supported by the NHS employers and vetoed by Hunt) is not a bad deal, and is cost neutral. See this graphic:
http://www.bma.org.uk/~/asset/4/13924.ashx
2. Is it true that this new contract could/would only be forced on new doctors and new appointments.0 -
Humans are very gifted at spotting patterns.hunchman said:You can check out the record of the 1000 pi day cycle (3,141 days or 8.605 years - 23rd February 2007 was the day the index of subprime mortgage debt topped out, late 1998 was the Russian financial crisis, and late 1989 was the Japanese stockmarket top....so this cycle always seems to pick out something important. The war cycle is rising, Russia starting bombing in Syria on the turn date of 1st October last year was a mainfestation of that. Behind apparent chaos, there is a hidden order to events as cycles throughout history attest. Clearly by your attitude, you don't want to see that, in that case that's your loss not mine.
Especially when they aren't there.0 -
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.0 -
Do you actually know any Docs. I do sometimes wonder. They're middle class. They won't want the insecurity of not having a proper job.Chris_A said:
2. Yes new appointments only but junior doctors, especially early on in their careers, change jobs every few months. Once their foundation years are out of the way then there's always locuming. Look expectantly to the wage bill spiralling completely out of control towards the end of the parliament because of the agency staff costs.TCPoliticalBetting said:
1. I heard on the radio today a chap from the NHS denying that they supported the BMA proposal.foxinsoxuk said:
That would be a very stupid move, not least because the recruitment round for August is underway.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Govt likely to impose #juniordocs contract in next couple of days, perhaps as early as tmrw
Actually the BMA proposal (supported by the NHS employers and vetoed by Hunt) is not a bad deal, and is cost neutral. See this graphic:
http://www.bma.org.uk/~/asset/4/13924.ashx
2. Is it true that this new contract could/would only be forced on new doctors and new appointments.
They really are on to a loser.0 -
Nah - they've lost the battle because they overegged the safety. Oh, and because the public won't vote for Corbo.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
They didn't pick their message well, and they've been a bit unlucky timing wise too.0 -
Republic Bank New York had a lot to answer for..........but they never had to.Alistair said:
I amazed that a man with a model that precisely predict major economic up and down turns would need to ever cover trading loses.watford30 said:
Armstrong's wikipedia entry is fun.Alistair said:
I just tried reading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com and it reads like timecube.comhunchman said:
I think the outcomes of the 1840's and the 1930's on this 86 year cycle are well known to those who know their history, don't you?
And you would be happy to be tried under Judge Owen?! Pull the other one. The US government got a hissy fit because he wouldn't turn over his models that they wanted. If his models weren't any good, then why would they want them?! From a man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash to the day, the high in Japanese equities at the end of 1989, the roadmap presented at his 1999 conference including the dot com bubble, 2008 and the European crisis in 2011/2012, I have more faith in his forecasting than I would have in you! And because he was so good, he made a lot of powerful enemies including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the like. I see that 5 out of 6 Goldman forecasts at the start of this year and their trades thereupon have already been reversed out.
'Armstrong was indicted in 1999, and was ordered by judge Richard Owen to turn over a number of gold bars, computers, and antiquities that had been bought with the fund's money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong0 -
Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.0 -
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
0 -
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.0 -
You said earlier that it is about safety since there will be fewer junior doctors working from Monday to Friday than there are now, and this will make those days less safe.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Surely, then, this means that Saturdays and Sundays currently (with fewer junior doctors working than work from Monday to Friday) are less safe than Mondays to Fridays. Which, as I understand it, is the government's point.
0 -
So in short, you don't know? Or are not willing to comment?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
I'm a Tory, but your partisanship on this issue is just hilarious.0 -
It is all about Tory internals.
How incompetent is Labour that they cannot exploit the self-destruction of the most succesful Conservative PM for decades.
Very incompetent.
No one who voted Conservative in 2015 will switch to Corbyn's Labour. They may switch to UKIP.
But f*ck me, how incompetent is Cameron? He managed to produce a "deal" that was shockingly bad, even to those cynics who were expecting a shockingly bad deal.
If he loses, he and his deal may simply be quietly forgotten. It won't be the rejection of the renegotiation that will be remembered; it will be the rejection of the EU itself.
Sure, on one level people will remember that Britain left on his watch and that he didn't want it. On the other, how that moment is viewed will depend on how the EU turns out.
I suspect he'll only end up with a Heath-like reputation if Remain wins and then things go totally tits-up, particularly if the win is seen to have come through falsehoods and cheating (which will almost certainly be the belief).
As I've often said, I expect the last. And still do.
You haven't answered the underlying question: how this deal is so entirely shite. From an allegedly gifted politician. Did Cameron just stop concentrating? Did he get think Sod it I can sell anything? Did he genuinely believe he had something worthwhile? Was he surrounded by appalling advisers?
I've yet to hear a coherent explanation.
Think he just overestimated his salesman ability. He thought the press and public would fool for the spin.
From perdix:You'll have to wait for Cameron's memoirs in a couple of decades from now. I am a huge admirer of Cam for many reasons but I am likely to vote Leave.
0 -
Yes, I'd love to see Kelvin in there, and he has the authentic Corbyn style - quietly, politely left-wing. I've no idea why he isn't.oldpolitics said:
Which leads me to ponder why the main likely "outers" aren't in the shadow cabinet. Kate Hoey is obvious, John Cryer I guess would rather Chair the PLP, Graham Stringer is too disloyal even for Corbyn. But what has Kelvin Hopkins done wrong apart from be a bit old?NickPalmer said:
I don't think guts are relevant. They're not in favour of leaving, so why would they pretend to be? Probably Corbyn is the least enthusiastic, but he's probably fighting enough battles within the PLP at the moment without starting another one...SandyRentool said:
Equally I am waiting for someone in the Shad Cab to show some guts and come out for Leave.0 -
For a man wanting to neutralize the "Never trust the Tories with the NHS".
Cameron is acting like a Fookin idiot0 -
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.0 -
The Royal College of Surgeons has made that precise point in the past in relation to the EWTD:watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
"The introduction of the EWTD has led to a slow and ongoing erosion of the quality of training. The effects of this are beginning to emerge and will become increasingly apparent as current trainees
start to complete their training. It is still too early to see the full effect of implementation of the 48 hour week, but evidence is now being published about the impact of the reduction to 56 hours,
which indicates a significant deterioration in access to training.
There is growing evidence that rotas compliant with the EWTD are both increasing doctors’ feelings of fatigue and worsening their work-life balance. We highlight the following changes bought about by the EWTD that are having an impact on the quality of training:
o Shift working – in order to maintain a 24-hour service and make rotas compliant, many employers have implemented full shift working (at the expense of maintaining on-call rotas). This is a direct result of the SiMap ruling and presents particular difficulties for smaller units. Constraints and penalties within the ‘New Deal’ have also influenced the move to full shift working to ensure compliance. Full shift working is not only disruptive to
training schedules but also to a good work-life balance, as the proportion of out of hours service provision has increased, at the cost of high quality daytime training opportunities.
As a result there have been three deleterious affects - trainees have had their overall hours reduced and daytime training reduced further still, in addition to far longer periods away from home and families."
I take a contrary view. It is possible to train Specialists in less time if they are actually trained and supervised rather than being left to do donkey work of little educational value.0 -
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.0 -
It's the government who says that you need more junior doctors to have a safer service. Under the new contract there will be fewer of them working weekdays. If there aren't then they'll have been working for more hours.ThreeQuidder said:
You said earlier that it is about safety since there will be fewer junior doctors working from Monday to Friday than there are now, and this will make those days less safe.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Surely, then, this means that Saturdays and Sundays currently (with fewer junior doctors working than work from Monday to Friday) are less safe than Mondays to Fridays. Which, as I understand it, is the government's point.0 -
So you're happy for them to train for just enough to get by? Or go the extra mile, for the experience and improvement in patient safety?Chris_A said:
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.0 -
JH came over really well on the delayed 10pm news
Why was it delayed you ask? That would be because West Brom had a decisive 4-3 (on penalties) win over the Posh, who are 38 BLADDY PLACES BELOW THEM!0 -
This was inevitably going to happen - the renegotiation thing wasn't optimized for when he actually did it in 2016, it was optimized for getting him through the election in 2015 without saying he supported the EU as it actually existed.foxinsoxuk said:
I am no Cameroon, but I think Dave has handled this very badly. His pretend deal has managed to annoy both the Leavers and the existing Remainers (who were in a majority).isam said:Who will be the first Cameroon to post tonight in a manner that suggests they have had better things to do all day and are staying uber calm while all the Eurosceptics get over excited?
The Leavers would not be happy even if Dave had the EU commissioners licking his boots ( see the bastard getting his boots cleaned for free...) but the Remainers in the LDs, SNP, PC and Labour are not impressed by his hypocritical and ineffectual posturing.
However, I doubt it'll have much effect on the actual referendum; The EU is a big enough issue to be mostly decided on its own merits, not on Cameron's pre-referendum politicking.0 -
You said it earlier.Chris_A said:
It's the government who says that you need more junior doctors to have a safer service.ThreeQuidder said:
You said earlier that it is about safety since there will be fewer junior doctors working from Monday to Friday than there are now, and this will make those days less safe.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Surely, then, this means that Saturdays and Sundays currently (with fewer junior doctors working than work from Monday to Friday) are less safe than Mondays to Fridays. Which, as I understand it, is the government's point.
Rumbled.
0 -
Hint for anyone who is involved in Junior Docs strike.
Do not smile on a picket line.
It makes you look like you're enjoying it.0 -
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/697548112525729793
The Times has seen evidence that among Ukip’s Westminster candidates:
● One stated that Islam was organised crime under religious camouflage and that Muhammad was a gang leader, a criminal psychopath, the first cult leader, and psychiatrically deranged. Wanted to license mosques and attended English Defence League rallies
● Another spoke at a “gay cure”-themed event after being approved
● One committed common assault
● Another told someone to remember to wear her burka when going to Birmingham
● One retweeted posts from Pegida, a far-right anti-Muslim German party
● Another was convicted for common assault against his wife
Among those who stood to be councillors:
● One had been convicted in separate incidents of wounding,
GBH, assault and criminal damage, threatening behaviour and assault
● Another described a picture of two people posing with monkeys as “an arranged interracial marriage”
● One was imprisoned for 21 months for breaking and entering
● Another committed GBH while employed as a bouncer0 -
Just wondering, how is it that we always seem to end up with total tools as head of the MET?0
-
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
0 -
Oh FFS
@kevverage: My friends outside Scotland: this is genuinely a thing.
Pray for us. https://t.co/5Sui9M5HzN
@moorlanddragon: @ScotNational Is there an English language version for those of us who don't speak fuckwit?0 -
I suppose it's a bit like being a passenger on a 747 with engine problems. Would you be happier with Captain Jeremy, fully qualified with 10,000 hours experience, or Captain Andrew, similar paper qualification, but only 5,000 hours real experience on the clock. Hmmm.watford30 said:
So you're happy for them to train for just enough to get by? Or go the extra mile, for the experience and improvement in patient safety?Chris_A said:
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.0 -
Sounds to me like they would be perfect in the House of CommonsTheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/697548112525729793
The Times has seen evidence that among Ukip’s Westminster candidates:
● One stated that Islam was organised crime under religious camouflage and that Muhammad was a gang leader, a criminal psychopath, the first cult leader, and psychiatrically deranged. Wanted to license mosques and attended English Defence League rallies
● Another spoke at a “gay cure”-themed event after being approved
● One committed common assault
● Another told someone to remember to wear her burka when going to Birmingham
● One retweeted posts from Pegida, a far-right anti-Muslim German party
● Another was convicted for common assault against his wife
Among those who stood to be councillors:
● One had been convicted in separate incidents of wounding,
GBH, assault and criminal damage, threatening behaviour and assault
● Another described a picture of two people posing with monkeys as “an arranged interracial marriage”
● One was imprisoned for 21 months for breaking and entering
● Another committed GBH while employed as a bouncer0 -
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.0 -
I sometime wonder if you sockpuppets are for real. Carry on, you're onto a loser.watford30 said:
So you're happy for them to train for just enough to get by? Or go the extra mile, for the experience and improvement in patient safety?Chris_A said:
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.0 -
They only looked at 7 of the candidates then.TheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/697548112525729793
The Times has seen evidence that among Ukip’s Westminster candidates:
● One stated that Islam was organised crime under religious camouflage and that Muhammad was a gang leader, a criminal psychopath, the first cult leader, and psychiatrically deranged. Wanted to license mosques and attended English Defence League rallies
● Another spoke at a “gay cure”-themed event after being approved
● One committed common assault
● Another told someone to remember to wear her burka when going to Birmingham
● One retweeted posts from Pegida, a far-right anti-Muslim German party
● Another was convicted for common assault against his wife
Among those who stood to be councillors:
● One had been convicted in separate incidents of wounding,
GBH, assault and criminal damage, threatening behaviour and assault
● Another described a picture of two people posing with monkeys as “an arranged interracial marriage”
● One was imprisoned for 21 months for breaking and entering
● Another committed GBH while employed as a bouncer0 -
Looks like someone at UKIP has been leaking stuff to The Times, UKIP really don't have a pot to piss in, but that's been hinted at for some while
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4687983.ece0 -
Why British Muslims should vote to leave the EU
Muslims for Britain is a new campaign group that aims to win support for Brexit among the UK's 3 million Muslims
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12150386/Why-British-Muslims-should-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html0 -
Indeed. They're not going to give up long held career plans, for uncertainty.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.0 -
Many labour disputes end up with the employer looking for alternative suppliers.
Striking doctors will make contracting out to private enterprise that is willing to turn up for work justified in the public eye.
It's a path that has been walked many many times before with the public sector.
The patients don't actually care so long as the treatment is fine and they are not handing over cash at the point of access.0 -
Ten years of Margaret Thatcher delivered council house sales, trade union reform, privatisation, the Falklands War and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Ten years of Blair brought NHS spending to the European average, peace in Ireland after 600 years of conflict, an end to pensioner poverty, a National Minimum Wage and 0.7% of GDP spent on foreign aid. In 2017, ten years of SNP rule will have delivered free medical prescriptions and a lost referendum.
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/how-nicola-sturgeon-sold-out-scottish-national-party-second-independence-referendum0 -
Anyone who hasn't been Baptised and Confirmed into the NHS faith is a sock puppet are they?Chris_A said:
I sometime wonder if you sockpuppets are for real. Carry on, you're onto a loser.watford30 said:
So you're happy for them to train for just enough to get by? Or go the extra mile, for the experience and improvement in patient safety?Chris_A said:
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.
I'm fed up of Docs moaning about this. All other public sector workers have had contract changes. Most private sector workers had pay/hours cuts and have no-where near as good a pension.
And on top of that they're overplaying their hand and threatening mass resignations.
The public won't wear it for much longer. And imposition won't hurt the Tory poll leads either.
Win Win.0 -
1) The UK's services surplus isn't large enough to match the goods deficit (plus the tourism deficit).Mortimer said:
I know Sir Alan Brooke of this parish bangs on about manufacturing, but given our success in the service sector, does it really matter?HurstLlama said:"Britain's manufacturing sector remains 9.8pc smaller than its 2008 peak, while the wider industrial sector is still 6.5pc smaller than its pre-crash size."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12149849/Shock-fall-in-UK-industrial-output-lays-bare-plight-of-sector.html
Thank goodness we have our "near perfect" (tm Mr. Nabavi) chancellor looking after the economy (when he can be bothered to turn away from political stunts) otherwise we might also still have a large structural deficit and a massive current account imbalance.
Britain is presumably a bladdy expensive place to manufacture stuff....
2) The UK's goods exports are actually larger than the services exports - even though more than 10 times as many people work in the services sector than in manufacturing.
3) There is no guarantee that the UK's services surplus will continue any more than there was a guarantee that the UK's exports of motorbikes would in the 1950s.
4) Manufacturing workers have higher average productivity and earnings than those in the services sector.
5) The top end services sector is concentrated in and near London whereas manufacturing is spread more generally throughout the country.
6) The UK is an expensive place to do anything - especially so for those concentrated in and near London.
7) Concentrating too much of the UK's wealth creating / exporting earning into certain areas increases risk and encourages official tolerance of misconduct within them - see 'the banks' ad infinitum.
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I'm one of the millions of taxpayers who pays your salary, with the expectation that we'll get a decent level of 21st century healthcare in return.Chris_A said:
I sometime wonder if you sockpuppets are for real. Carry on, you're onto a loser.watford30 said:
So you're happy for them to train for just enough to get by? Or go the extra mile, for the experience and improvement in patient safety?Chris_A said:
Doctors should train for sufficient amount of time so that they can acquire the necessary competencies.watford30 said:
But do you agree that in the interests of that all important 'patient safety', doctors should train for longer under the new shorter working hours? Seems sensible does it not?Chris_A said:
That was the argument put about when the WTD markedly reduced hours. The bigger impediment is the bread and butter stuff being farmed out of the NHS so you don't ket any training in cataract surgery etc.watford30 said:
Ah, 'safety'.Chris_A said:
That's where your completely wrong - the public are supportive because they know it is about safety. Do you think they'd support reasonably well paid professionals striking for more money?Mortimer said:
By making this about Hunt the BMA and Docs look small minded and vindictive. Just as they should never have gone with the safety line. They might have won a pure 'we're worth more than this offer' debate.
Do you agree that Junior Doctors working shorter hours, should now have longer training? Obviously it will take longer for them to advance their careers, but they'll need the extra time to catch up with the experience of their predecessors.
Personally, I'd rather be treated by Consultant A with say 25% more experience under his or her belt, than Consultant B who trained for the same number of years, but spent far fewer hours learning 'on the job'.
And you're not delivering, as you're too busy hijacking it as a cult or religion, rather than a service to be provided to it's many patients.0 -
Interesting juxtaposition on that Times front page;
Ukip candidates criticise Islam/British muslim takes family to Syria to fight for ISIS0 -
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.0 -
Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance0 -
How many vacancies are there in Wales and Scotland? Outside of Edinburgh/Glasgow, non of my metropolitan Doc friends would want to live in Wales/Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
Antipodes are VERY different.
Being a Doc is a safe MC role - far more will buckle down and accept it than will move.0 -
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
0 -
0
-
Moses_ said:
Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance0 -
Desperate stuff from the Indepedent:
"EU referendum: Think-tanks carrying out 'independent' research to support Brexit have close links to Vote Leave"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-think-tanks-carrying-out-independent-research-to-support-brexit-have-close-links-to-a6866011.html
Wonder if they will have a look at some of those "independent" think tanks churning out pro-EU "research".Vote Leave’s spokesman Mr Oxley said: “... It should come as no surprise that every piece of research the BSE campaign cites comes from EU-funded bodies.”
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Way to get the northern Labour heartlands rallying to the Remain causeisam said:Conservative PM confirmed as BOOer
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/6975447161837977600 -
You've never heard of recruitment and retention premia then. No? Of course not because all you ever wish to do with the NHS is run it down.TCPoliticalBetting said:
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.0 -
Some will bite the bullet, some will move, some will leave the profession.Mortimer said:
How many vacancies are there in Wales and Scotland? Outside of Edinburgh/Glasgow, non of my metropolitan Doc friends would want to live in Wales/Scotland.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
Antipodes are VERY different.
Being a Doc is a safe MC role - far more will buckle down and accept it than will move.
Many will just become resentful and do the bare minimum, refusing to cover rota vacancies.
It will not be an effective way of bringing about change in the NHS. Pissing off a key part of the workforce never is.
The simple fact of spreading staff thinner but more evenly across the week is not going to improve outcomes.
The only way of providing a 7 day NHS of well trained and equipped staff is the closure of many smaller units to emergdncy admissions. Small district hospitals simply do not have the staff to man a 7 day rota.0 -
Damn - could have done with you in my local hospital on a Sunday in August 2014, when I had a violent reaction to a drug that was administered to me after having told 3 people I was allergic to it!Chris_A said:Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance0 -
Do you think that fewer people will die if there are more junior doctors working at weekends etc?bigjohnowls said:For a man wanting to neutralize the "Never trust the Tories with the NHS".
Cameron is acting like a Fookin idiot
0 -
Errr! That is precisely what the BMA are saying.TCPoliticalBetting said:
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
Staff who work more unsocial hours should be paid premiums to attract them! (Or not have those premiums reduced - as Hunt plans to do).
0 -
Although this comment was tongue in cheek, I do think there's a serious point here.Danny565 said:
Way to get the northern Labour heartlands rallying to the Remain causeisam said:Conservative PM confirmed as BOOer
https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/697544716183797760
For all the main figures in the Leave campaign seem to think the world revolves around right-wingers and Tory voters, they would do well to remember there's no realistic route to a Leave victory which doesn't go through the Old Labour mining and industrial towns.0 -
Never too late to report https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/Mortimer said:
Damn - could have done with you in my local hospital on a Sunday in August 2014, when I had a violent reaction to a drug that was administered to me after having told 3 people I was allergic to it!Chris_A said:Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance0 -
Universities can always reduce the quality of grades required to join medical degree courses. As long as they can acquire the necessary competences in later training it shouldn't be a problem.TCPoliticalBetting said:
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.0 -
Thank you.Chris_A said:Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance0 -
@DannySweeney89: Yes the SNP really did just vote to stop saving lives, just to spite Scottish Labour.
That happened.
That is a fact. https://t.co/hAgyxdIOdc0 -
I don't. The problem of providing the same level of service across the entire 168 hours of the week as available in 40 office hours goes much further than having a few junior doctors working Saturday rather than a Tuesday.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Do you think that fewer people will die if there are more junior doctors working at weekends etc?bigjohnowls said:For a man wanting to neutralize the "Never trust the Tories with the NHS".
Cameron is acting like a Fookin idiot
Trashing training and depleting the midweek staff is not the way to improve outcomes across the week. If that is done then it will be a levelling down rather than levelling up.0 -
I think allergies to NSAIDs are pretty well known already - but good to know there is a system in place!Chris_A said:
Never too late to report https://yellowcard.mhra.gov.uk/Mortimer said:
Damn - could have done with you in my local hospital on a Sunday in August 2014, when I had a violent reaction to a drug that was administered to me after having told 3 people I was allergic to it!Chris_A said:Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:Mr. Chris A
Given you are obviously very passionate about your cause may I ask what you actually do in the NHS?
The only reason I ask is to formulate my opinion on what you say and its accuracy. I know who Hunt is and what he does but I need a balance. What do you do? ( don't need to know where, why or anything else)
Tks in advance
0 -
If that is the solution then something, somewhere has gone seriously wrong.watford30 said:
Universities can always reduce the quality of grades required to join medical degree courses. As long as they can acquire the necessary competences in later training it shouldn't be a problem.TCPoliticalBetting said:
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.foxinsoxuk said:
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.Mortimer said:
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.foxinsoxuk said:
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.Mortimer said:Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
Don'tcha think?0 -
I work in adverse drug reactions and medicines management.Moses_ said:
Tks in advance
Thank you.
And as I said earlier the inexorable rise in the NHS drugs bill is causing real financial strains. Newer biological treatments are often life changing in diseases like rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease, psoriasis, hepatitis C infection, macular degeneration leading to blindness and the like, but they don't come cheap.
Also CCGs which under Lansley were meant to take a lead in commissioning have mostly their hands tied because getting on for two-thirds of their drugs budget goes on NICE-approved treatments.0