Will there be an emergency strike if the contract is imposed?
That would lead to a total victory for the Govt - would disarm the BMA for a generation.
More likely mass resignations. The GPs are planning this too in their own contract dispute, and have done so in the past.
This is most likely to be effective in shortage specialities where there are unfilled posts, less so in high demand specialities. So expect shortages in emergency medicine, paediatrics, obstetrics etc.
I'd say that wouldnt be safe or fair.
But, like I said, Docs are MC, they won't resign en masse.
No, but they will move to Wales or Scotland where the new contract does not apply, as well as the antipodes. They will leave postgraduate training, and even the profession. This year the number of junior Doctors in Specialist training/GP training 2 years post qualification is 50%, in 2013 it was 73%.
People will vote with their feet, and vacancies on rotas will worsen. This is likely to be highest in shortage specialities such as Paeds, Emergency Medicine and Obstetrics, and particularly so in less fashionable parts of the country. There is a real recruitment and retention problem.
and then the pay and conditions will be changed to attract enough doctors. If Emergency needs more it should pay more. Of course that is very hard for a socialist entity like the NHS to do but it will and life will go on. There may even be sensible change such as more training places, higher fees and formal minimum service terms of say 3 years for every E&W trained doctor to complete.
Universities can always reduce the quality of grades required to join medical degree courses. As long as they can acquire the necessary competences in later training it shouldn't be a problem.
There is already an excess of people with the minimum grades wanting to be doctors. No need to reduce the minimum for those reasons.
@DannySweeney89: Yes the SNP really did just vote to stop saving lives, just to spite Scottish Labour. That happened. That is a fact. https://t.co/hAgyxdIOdc
And in another complete surprise move, the SNP decided not to have independent scrutiny of Scottish Govt finances:
If that is the solution then something, somewhere has gone seriously wrong.
Don'tcha think?
Nope, not at all. There is no reason why doctors should be comprised solely of the brightest in the economy. And there is a good deal of evidence that the most academically bright do not make the best doctors in practice. For example, Harvard Medical School has a reputation for churning out brilliant people who make poor doctors as they lack people skills etc..., whereas other schools which accept far lower grades create doctors who are ready for practice. See: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/17/health/17chen.html
And, of course, certain specialisms are renowned for not being that bright. Many a true word spoken in jest, as they say:
What's the difference between a rhinoceros and an orthopaedic surgeon? One's thick-skinned, small-brained and charges a lot for no very good reason....the other's a rhinoceros.
Are you sure the overall bill is going up? I heard that a large chunk of the efficiency savings in the last NHS 5 year plan came from putting pressure on GPs to use a generic over a branded drug, where one was available. You also have to remember that there are always old drugs coming off patent, which can then be switched for a generic.
That said some of the new drugs are expensive. Gilead is making a fortune off Sovaldi as it is a revolutionary new Hep C treatment. One good thing for the drug companies is that biologics are harder to genericize when they came off patent
Comments
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35543454
And, of course, certain specialisms are renowned for not being that bright. Many a true word spoken in jest, as they say:
What's the difference between a rhinoceros and an orthopaedic surgeon?
One's thick-skinned, small-brained and charges a lot for no very good reason....the other's a rhinoceros.
Are you sure the overall bill is going up? I heard that a large chunk of the efficiency savings in the last NHS 5 year plan came from putting pressure on GPs to use a generic over a branded drug, where one was available. You also have to remember that there are always old drugs coming off patent, which can then be switched for a generic.
That said some of the new drugs are expensive. Gilead is making a fortune off Sovaldi as it is a revolutionary new Hep C treatment. One good thing for the drug companies is that biologics are harder to genericize when they came off patent
https://twitter.com/narboroughlad/status/697127862856458240