politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » You’ve read the blogs, listened to the podcasts – now watch
Options
Comments
-
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:
. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.0 -
Yup. And because the British public mildly favour Leave, and the loyal Tories are the swing electorate, that's why you are now my litmus test.JohnO said:
Just to be clear (but I see your point about 'if'), I am now 50-50 and would still 'like' to vote Remain. Much will depend on what happens at the summit.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
Congratulations.0 -
Don't tell him I said this, but I suspect he's right that we'll vote In this time, but at some point in the next decade, we'll go the other way, simply because the differences between Eurozone and non-Eurozone members will get too great.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.0 -
Agreed. The point I was making is that there is every chance that a Remain vote will make them worse off than they are now not better off or even the same. Once we have had our referendum and the EU has no fear of us trying to leave for another generation or so I fully expect our position within the EU and correspondingly the position of things like the City to deteriorate markedly.rcs1000 said:
Most people fear loss more than they crave gains. A 50% chance of their house being worth less ways more heavily on their decision than a 50% chance their income could be higher.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean they will think that is what they are voting for. There is every chance they will actually be making things worse.Casino_Royale said:
At the moment, I think 58-59 for Remain, but it could go as high as 62-63%.surbiton said:
Remain 60 - 40 Leave !Casino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
It will be Project Fear like you've never seen before - people will vote "for" their house prices, wallets and jobs.0 -
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
The Democrats hard left? Clinton is running on maybe letting women having a couple months off after having a baby!Tim_B said:
After the Obama years, the Democratic Party is hard left and frankly bereft of talent. If Hillary is the best they've got then the party is in serious trouble. Her only potential competition is the James Comey Primary.david_herdson said:
Winning the nomination of a major party in an open year without serious opposition is an extraordinary political achievement.Tim_B said:
Yes it was quite embarrassing.rcs1000 said:
It's similar to asking Hillary Clinton supporters about her achievements. The response is much the same.
Oh, you mean something she's done for the good of the country or beyond?
0 -
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
0 -
Thats why we should have got some mechanism what protects non-Euro members but it looks like Cameron barely pushed for it.rcs1000 said:
Don't tell him I said this, but I suspect he's right that we'll vote In this time, but at some point in the next decade, we'll go the other way, simply because the differences between Eurozone and non-Eurozone members will get too great.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.0 -
57% will vote out..the horror stories from Europe are just beginning..and if your house drops slightly in value..then so does everyone else s.0
-
Mr Brooke, Mr Llama: there are ladies present....... Some of us even have French blood in our veins.Alanbrooke said:
Yes, but your father understood frenchwomen have a love of english seamenHurstLlama said:
What sort of talk is that, Mr. Brooke? As a young man I shagged a French bird too, but it didn't stop my father from knowing right from wrong!.Alanbrooke said:
My son is currently dating a french countess. I have to be nice to them.
0 -
Add some of the Others.justin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
And thats stupid for anyone looking to upsize as the next house up will fall in value more than current place.rcs1000 said:
Most people fear loss more than they crave gains. A 50% chance of their house being worth less ways more heavily on their decision than a 50% chance their income could be higher.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean they will think that is what they are voting for. There is every chance they will actually be making things worse.Casino_Royale said:
At the moment, I think 58-59 for Remain, but it could go as high as 62-63%.surbiton said:
Remain 60 - 40 Leave !Casino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
It will be Project Fear like you've never seen before - people will vote "for" their house prices, wallets and jobs.0 -
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.0 -
Old people own the houses, and old people will vote !NorfolkTilIDie said:
And thats stupid for anyone looking to upsize as the next house up will fall in value more than current place.rcs1000 said:
Most people fear loss more than they crave gains. A 50% chance of their house being worth less ways more heavily on their decision than a 50% chance their income could be higher.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean they will think that is what they are voting for. There is every chance they will actually be making things worse.Casino_Royale said:
At the moment, I think 58-59 for Remain, but it could go as high as 62-63%.surbiton said:
Remain 60 - 40 Leave !Casino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
It will be Project Fear like you've never seen before - people will vote "for" their house prices, wallets and jobs.0 -
I think there are two reasons for that:NorfolkTilIDie said:Thats why we should have got some mechanism what protects non-Euro members but it looks like Cameron barely pushed for it.
1. The Eurozone members are currently wrapped up in the migrant crisis. He would have had a better reception if they hadn't been totally focussed on the consequences of Mrs Merkel's disastrous offer.
2. He was too desperate to get a deal asap. More patience, and a willingness to let negotiations continue into 2017, would likely have gotten more.
0 -
x
I think there is a fair argument that the UKIP percentage at the Euros should be considered not the GE... A larger proportion of people vote UKIP when they know it doesn't mean Farage as PM/UKIP in any power, and surely the subject matter is more relevant to the Referendum than the GE wasSean_F said:
Add some of the Others.justin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
I'd only be concerned about falling property prices if I were heavily mortgaged. Otherwise, falling prices just give you better value for your money when you move.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.0 -
What was the economic situation like in 1979 or 2010?justin124 said:
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.0 -
@Tissue_Price are we saying no bet on the Isabella Buttons?0
-
To be fair, the siren call from many on this site for the past four years since the start of the Eurozone crisis was that "now is the time it's all going to go to shit". If you dig through the archives, you'll find no shortage of people predicting that Ireland would go bust... Spain would go bust... Italian unemployment would keep rising to 50%... etc etc etc.richardDodd said:57% will vote out..the horror stories from Europe are just beginning..and if your house drops slightly in value..then so does everyone else s.
0 -
Says something when you have to quote Labour 1951-1970 in 2016. See that Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer are going to conduct a Nationwide review of how voters see immigration. You couldn't make this stuff upjustin124 said:
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.0 -
Sean_F said:
I'm very far from convinced that'd happen anyway. There'd be some uncertainty for 12-18 months whilst the post-EU emerged, but not that much. And we certainly wouldn't slip into recession.Casino_Royale said:
I'd only be concerned about falling property prices if I were heavily mortgaged. Otherwise, falling prices just give you better value for your money when you move.rcs1000 said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.Casino_Royale said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.HYUFD said:
NCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.
Once we got it, the economy would be just as good as before. Might even be better if we liberalised our trade, laws and regulations.0 -
That sort of rationalism doesn't factor much...Sean_F said:
I'd only be concerned about falling property prices if I were heavily mortgaged. Otherwise, falling prices just give you better value for your money when you move.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.0 -
No about 20% from the Tories, 13% from UKIP and 8% from Labour gives 41%plus at least 2% from the LDs and 2% from the SNP makes 45%. If more Tories vote Out that figure growsjustin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
I agree that, if those are your assumptions, you do indeed arrive at those figures.HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
Pulpstar said:
That sort of rationalism doesn't factor much...Sean_F said:
I'd only be concerned about falling property prices if I were heavily mortgaged. Otherwise, falling prices just give you better value for your money when you move.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly. To his credit, he's honest, and that provides a lot of insight.rcs1000 said:
I think SeanT is the most representative of people at large.Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
No, I don't mean someone earning 400k a year.
What I mean is someone who doesn't want to be in the EU. But who's (near-term) financial self interest seems to be tied up in staying. He'll bitch and moan about the EU. But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.
And the disadvantage of honesty, of course, is that it reveals uncomfortable truths: he will probably allow himself to be spooked into not doing The Right Thing out of fear for his wallet.
Old people who vote know their kids and grandkids cannot afford a home, so house prices falling slightly is not a bad thing for them.
0 -
Absolutely. This is people all over.rcs1000 said:
Most people fear loss more than they crave gains. A 50% chance of their house being worth less ways more heavily on their decision than a 50% chance their income could be higher.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean they will think that is what they are voting for. There is every chance they will actually be making things worse.Casino_Royale said:
At the moment, I think 58-59 for Remain, but it could go as high as 62-63%.surbiton said:
Remain 60 - 40 Leave !Casino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
It will be Project Fear like you've never seen before - people will vote "for" their house prices, wallets and jobs.
And I do this in my own betting all the time, and also tend to let losses run and take profits too early, which is probably why I never make the really big money.
Although I am getting better. A bit.0 -
From a mathematical perspective, it's not quite that simple.NorfolkTilIDie said:
And thats stupid for anyone looking to upsize as the next house up will fall in value more than current place.rcs1000 said:
Most people fear loss more than they crave gains. A 50% chance of their house being worth less ways more heavily on their decision than a 50% chance their income could be higher.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean they will think that is what they are voting for. There is every chance they will actually be making things worse.Casino_Royale said:
At the moment, I think 58-59 for Remain, but it could go as high as 62-63%.surbiton said:
Remain 60 - 40 Leave !Casino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
It will be Project Fear like you've never seen before - people will vote "for" their house prices, wallets and jobs.
Imagine you have a house worth 100 and a mortgage of 80. You wish to buy a house that costs 150. Now imagine property prices fall 20%.
So, now you have a house worth 80 and a mortgage of 80. You cannot upgrade because you no longer have any equity in your house.
Now, imagine that house prices rise 20%. You now have a house worth 120. You have 40 of equity to put towards a house of 180. That's a higher deposit percentage than you had before.
Now, I know the logical fallacy here. You know the logical fallacy here. But that's how it appears to the average person: if you own a house, then rising house prices look pretty awesome.0 -
new thread
0 -
In 2010 the UK economy was recovering against a background of an International economic collapse which continues to this day. Unemployment had already stabilised.RobD said:
What was the economic situation like in 1979 or 2010?justin124 said:
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.
In 1979 - despite the Winter of Discontent of Jan/Feb that year - the economy was in a better condition than that inherited from Ted Heath in March 1974 - inflation was lower for example.0 -
International collapse continuing to this day? Which countries are still in recession?justin124 said:
In 2010 the UK economy was recovering against a background of an International economic collapse which continues to this day. Unemployment had already stabilised.RobD said:
What was the economic situation like in 1979 or 2010?justin124 said:
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.Alanbrooke said:
Was Antigonus Monopthalmus also totally shit at running an economy ?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my historical comparison of Osborne and Antigonus Monopthalmus is nothing short of magnificent.
They even share the same habits of rewarding loyalty well, and being harsh towards enemies.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.
In 1979 - despite the Winter of Discontent of Jan/Feb that year - the economy was in a better condition than that inherited from Ted Heath in March 1974 - inflation was lower for example.0 -
I suspect you are relying on present poll % shares - whilst I was using May 2015 as my calculation. Agree that if LibDem/SNP/Plaid are included a total well above 40% is possible.HYUFD said:
No about 20% from the Tories, 13% from UKIP and 8% from Labour gives 41%plus at least 2% from the LDs and 2% from the SNP makes 45%. If more Tories vote Out that figure growsjustin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
16% Tories, 11% UKIP, 6 % Labour plus 2% SNP and 2% SNP makes 37%.HYUFD said:
No about 20% from the Tories, 13% from UKIP and 8% from Labour gives 41%plus at least 2% from the LDs and 2% from the SNP makes 45%. If more Tories vote Out that figure growsjustin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
That's the floor for Leave.0 -
Hannan should lead Leave. A solid performance from him on ITV earlier. The Europhiles were truly dreadful (3 million jobs, WW3, etc.)
http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2016-02-04/the-last-word-february-2016/0 -
'But his biggest asset by far is his overpriced flat in London, and he'll worry what will happen to house prices in a post EU world.'
We did of course have all these scare stories about how house prices, foreign investment and sterling would collapse if we didn't join the euro.
They were rubbish (though apparently they convinced Richard N at the time)0 -
Greece is still in recession and Europe as a whole is very stagnant. Back in the 1950s and 1960s economies growing at barely 1% per annum were viewed as experiencing recession.As it is the UK is clearly in an economic slowdown.RobD said:
International collapse continuing to this day? Which countries are still in recession?justin124 said:
In 2010 the UK economy was recovering against a background of an International economic collapse which continues to this day. Unemployment had already stabilised.RobD said:
What was the economic situation like in 1979 or 2010?justin124 said:
But Labour has passed on a Budget Surplus to the Tories! In 1970 Harold Wilson passed on a Budget Surplus to Ted Heath . Attlee did likewise in 1951.Moses_ said:
Personally I don't give a monkeys cuss what the Tories do .. Or even don't do. At the moment they are better than the muppet you elected.justin124 said:
Well then ,perhaps you would like to give us an example of when the Tories did bequeath a Budget Surplus to a successor Government?Moses_ said:
Oh well .....at least Brown did not after all have to write a thank you letter to the tories.justin124 said:
No Tory Government has passed on a Budget Surplus to a Labour Government.Moses_ said:
Like PFI's .....labour governments take a lot of "unwinding"Alanbrooke said:
LOL manufacturing PMIs are inspite of GO not because.Mortimer said:
Oh dear. And there was me thinking the manufacturing PMIs would cheer you up.
Incidentally, having started my business growth in a recession, I am still uber cautious when making stock purchases, cash flow management and growth plans. Often wondered how hard it must be to cope with recessions if your business started in a boom.
On the other hand Carney has just downgraded the economy and we also learnt we wont eliminate the deficit by 2020.
Thanks for clearing that up after all these years.
I do know what labour did twice in my lifetime though. It's enough for me .....
Chin chin old bean.
You will also find that no Tory Govt has left office with the Balance of Payments in surplus - Labour managed that in 1970/1951 too!
I am not a Labour Party member by the way.
In 1979 - despite the Winter of Discontent of Jan/Feb that year - the economy was in a better condition than that inherited from Ted Heath in March 1974 - inflation was lower for example.0 -
Agree and don't forget the DUP!justin124 said:
I suspect you are relying on present poll % shares - whilst I was using May 2015 as my calculation. Agree that if LibDem/SNP/Plaid are included a total well above 40% is possible.HYUFD said:
No about 20% from the Tories, 13% from UKIP and 8% from Labour gives 41%plus at least 2% from the LDs and 2% from the SNP makes 45%. If more Tories vote Out that figure growsjustin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.0 -
So at its floor Leave is already on more than the 33% the No campaign got in the EEC referendumCasino_Royale said:
16% Tories, 11% UKIP, 6 % Labour plus 2% SNP and 2% SNP makes 37%.HYUFD said:
No about 20% from the Tories, 13% from UKIP and 8% from Labour gives 41%plus at least 2% from the LDs and 2% from the SNP makes 45%. If more Tories vote Out that figure growsjustin124 said:
Surely that amounts to about 39/40% at most? ie 11% + 19% +8%HYUFD said:
All you have to do is add 90%+ of UKIP voters voting Leave, at least 50% of Tories and a quarter of Labour voters and you get to 45%+ Leave minimumCasino_Royale said:
I don't believe the online polls.HYUFD said:
Of course there is a chance, more polls have Leave ahead than had Yes ahead at this stage in Scotland and Yes got 45%!Casino_Royale said:
If posters like SeanT, Bob Sykes, AndyJS, TSE, DavidL and JohnO all become 100% definite for Leave, and Alastair Meeks comes off the fence for it too, then I'll believe we have a chance.HYUFD said:
No, the higher older turnout, even with graduates for Remain and the anti establishment mood will, as in Scotland see Leave get 45%+ and the renegotiations are not enough to change that. While I expect Remain to win overall across the UK I expect Leave to win England outside of LondonCasino_Royale said:
I expect at the moment a much heavier Leave defeat.HYUFD said:
The country is split about 51% Remain 49% Leave short of any major renegotiation and that is the result I expectPulpstar said:
The only people the renegotiation will "convince" are Dave's cabinet colleaguesHYUFD said:
Yes, we are presently debating a referendum for which no date has yet to be determined and negotiations essentially to get a comma moved here or there which will convince no one, least of all antis but might allow Cameron to swing a handful of the most undecided Cameron lovers to back Remain!rcs1000 said:. The country was in favour of staying in Europe anyway, and that I can't see changing.
People talk Leave but will end up being big jessies and voting Remain.
That's the floor for Leave.0
This discussion has been closed.