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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Politicalbetting EU Polling Averages – spli

We all know that there is a huge disparity between current EU referendum polls with the phone surveys showing much poorer figures for the BREXIT than the online firms.
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Chuka Ummuna on C4 news debating Europe. He is no genius but he was so far ahead of the normal Labour drone as defies belief. He agrees with Cameron on racism in University selection; he agreed with part of Maggie's Bruges speech but he fought his corner for membership of the EU.
Whether you agree with him or not is really the point. This man is articulate, intelligent and Labour. It makes him almost unique. If he is not their next leader Labour are persisting in not being serious.
Phone polls since the GE have a swing of 2 points to leave.
Online polls have a swing of 6 points to leave.
Both movements have been gradual over 7 months.
The large gap between the results of online and telephone polls is just one reason to be wary of the numbers"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12134110/How-EU-referendum-polls-are-getting-it-wrong-amid-a-cloud-of-uncertainty.html
Edit. I have read that if you added the undecided to no they got close but that is not what they were saying. Every last poll had it much closer than it turned out.
www.idpcaucuses.com
For Republicans it's
www.iagopcaucuses.com
The question now is why is there such a disparity on the European polling?
Last IPSOS had 45 YES 50 NO
Last ICM had 41 YES 45 NO
One week before ICM had Yes with a lead of 7, while Yougov had NO by 5.
Better to take an average and over time.
In the AV ref, AV had a massive early lead with ComRes and ICM by 59/32 and 56/35 (comparable to the EU Remain leads), within 3 months that lead had gone and it was a close race until the final campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
The EU ref online polls pretty much mirror the AV ref online polls at this moment in their campaigns.
Excluding DKs I think makes sense for general election Polling but I think you have to be more aggressive in assigning DKs in a two option referendum, especially one of such importance.
I find the idea that people are willing to peril their hard earned on the outcome of polling after the GE....remarkable.
Although Ipsos/Mori doesn't use the question on the ballot but just an IN/OUT question.
GOP
Trump 31%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 17%
Carson 8%
Paul 4%
Bush 4%
Democrats
Clinton 46%
Sanders 49%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320
Ultimately, if leaving the EU secures the support of 50% of the population for any sustained period of time, we leave.
Sanders tops Clinton 62 - 35 percent among Democratic first-timers, while Clinton leads 52 - 41 percent among voters who attended prior caucuses;
44 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats say this is their first caucus.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320
(Other than President Trump threatening to bomb us if we don't leave, of course
Tot Cruz Rubio Trump
Made up 72% 74% 63% 81%
Might change 28 26 37 18
LIKELY DEM CAUCUS-GOERS.............
Tot Clinton Sanders
Made up 85% 84% 87%
Might change 14 15 12
DK/NA
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320
Interesting notion that if REMAIN wins narrowly (how defined ?), it'll be EU Ref 2 in 2020. I suppose it's possible IF the Conservatives pick someone very closely associated with LEAVE, there might be a manifesto commitment for a second referendum within 12 months of the re-election of a Conservative Government.
Sorry...Robert doesn't want us talking about all this.
As for matters American, it's entryism run riot on both sides tonight. Trump and Sanders could be carried to victory by caucus first-timers but the underlying numbers suggest neither would have a lock on the nomination at this time. Cromwell's "pragmatic" voters might yet deny Trump but if he wins IA and NH convincingly, he'll be that harder to stop.
On the betting front, Ladbrokes have him best-priced at 20/1 to be the next Labour leader, while the likes of Paddy Power have him much shorter at 14/1.
https://news.vice.com/article/mystery-entity-offers-to-pay-people-to-attend-jeb-bush-rally-in-iowa
But Ummuna comes off more slimy than Jeb.
He will never get my vote, not even if he expels Hilary Benn from Labour (although Blair might get it if he does).
Both quite likely. And could lead to a second referendum, this time with the Prime Minister recommending LEAVE.
Sanders, for all his economic plans, is not a risk to national security in the way Corbyn and McMao are.
Trump's problem is that, like most businessmen going into politics, he thinks the way he runs his business through diktat, command and control can be used to run the Presidency but of course it can't.
Trump as POTUS would need to persuade, argue and convince and he's frankly not very good at any of those which means he'll get frustrated. A Trump Presidency would be four wasted years which the US cannot afford. If the Republicans weren't obsessed by their visceral hatred for Hillary (Bill beat them twice and the GOP hate to be reminded of that just as Conservatives hate to be reminded how effective an opponent Blair was), they might not consider her a bad alternative to the bunch of nitwits vying for their nomination.
Basically we are voting on the EU as it is now including the moves towards closer union.
How do you stop the self selection aspects of online polling?
How do you get people to answer the phone when they don't recognise the number in an age where everyone is plagued by nuisance calls?
I just found out that it is impossible for new voters to find out where to caucus in the republican side.
I'm trying to find the addresses of the republican caucus locations, but it's impossible to do so if you are not already a registered voter.
Same applies to the democrats but they have included all the addresses for their caucus separately, in case new voters are not registered.
Kudos to ABC for pointing to that problem:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-political-parties-acknowledge-major-gap-online-caucus/story?id=36616607
http://time.com/4201806/hillary-clinton-martin-omalley-bernie-sanders-iowa/
Can't recall if I posted this earlier.
Just checked and it does.
Gives precious votes to another candidate in a close 2 way race, its suicide.
If Sanders wins the vote but loses the delegates, it's still a big win for Sanders and a big defeat for Hillary, the media will report who won the vote not who got delegates.
One thing I did notice the other day on the rough map showing how it had spread was Trinidad and Tobago and also what appeared to be Costa Rica were not marked in red. Either side of this countries there were cases and in Trinidad's case up through the islands to the north. Odd?
Perhaps they ran out of colouring pencil?
If you are an Iowa republican and not a registered voter, giving your address won't give you the caucus location.
Basically we are voting on the EU as it is now including the moves towards closer union.'
100% correct. But so many people still want to play along with this silly 'renegotiation game'
http://www.buzzfeed.com/bensmith/hillary-bernie-math#.ixDo27aj5
And he can veto legislation if the Senate doesn't approve it by 66 votes (basically why republicans are impotent with control of just Congress).
Presently Obama controls american foreign policy, and republicans can only prevent domestic legislation from being passed.
But if you are a republican, to know where that location is you have to be already registered.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/01/german-mayor-young-girls-should-avoid-migrant-areas-of-town-but-german-men-just-as-bad/
Eurogeddon II
Migrant crisis II
Any significant change in the balance of sovereignty
Ultimately, though, if remaining in the EU is politically unpopular, it will not continue.