politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill say nobody’s bet on Osbo since the Google tax
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MInor storm going on my twitter feed:
twitter.com/SteveBlogs1/status/693505337954037761
Feminist indoctrination by English Lit coursework for OCR exam board,
Set Texts are The Bloody Chamber, The World's Wife and Much Ado About Nothing.0 -
I meant 'transfer of net wealth'.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 28s28 seconds ago
Cameron will say emergency brake to curb migrant benefits must start immediately if he is to accept deal in talks with Tusk. See S.Times0 -
Mr. T, what are these jobs that you think would bugger off to Paris and Frankfurt? Don't, please, get me wrong, if some of our criminal bankers want to go and feck up someone else's economy for a change I'd be delighted. However, I am at a loss to see what jobs would suddenly be better done (i.e. more profitable for the employers) on the continent than in London.SeanT said:
General instability, in the main (one of London's USPs is its impervious stability). Will scare investors. Also the possibility that jobs, esp in Finance, will migrate from London to Frankfurt and Paris (indeed I think it is almost certain this will happen). With jobs goes prosperity, plus that intangible sense that London is Where It's At In Europe.AndyJS said:Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?
As I say I reckon London would and should recover over a generation, but that's too late for me, speaking from pure selfishness.
To be sure the EU could try and impose some silly law to the effect that the Euro can only be traded in a Euro country but that is never going to work as they found out the last time the idea was floated. London will remain pre-eminent because it has the liquidity in its markets, the massive pool of qualified people, the back-up services of insurance etc. and a rock solid legal system back-stopping the whole thing.
London has for centuries, ever since the we fought with the Dutch for the privilege, been the money capital of the world. That might, probably willm one day change, but it will not change if the UK leaves the EU.0 -
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
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Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.foxinsoxuk said:
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.RobD said:
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.surbiton said:
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.isam said:
Most people in prison are desperate and poorAndyJS said:
If you don't want the time, don't do the crime.TheScreamingEagles said:Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to0 -
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.surbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.0 -
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.RobD said:
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.foxinsoxuk said:
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.RobD said:
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.surbiton said:
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.isam said:
Most people in prison are desperate and poorAndyJS said:
If you don't want the time, don't do the crime.TheScreamingEagles said:Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to0 -
Thanks for the link, thought-provoking article.Pong said:0 -
Then we slap tariffs on Spanish strawberries. (I'm assuming this on the premise we leave the EU and stop immigration)foxinsoxuk said:
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.RobD said:
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.foxinsoxuk said:
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.RobD said:
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.surbiton said:
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.isam said:
Most people in prison are desperate and poorAndyJS said:
If you don't want the time, don't do the crime.TheScreamingEagles said:Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
At the end of the day, if it is not economical to grow them here, we shouldn't be growing them here.0 -
Yes, it would somewhat reduce the property wealth of many Londoners by (say) £100-150k closer to £1,000,000 - but if it clipped £15,000 off a £150,000 terrace in Birmingham, Coventry, or Northampton, this would be a most desirable redistributionfoxinsoxuk said:
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
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I am a second generation 'immigrant'. I am a professional working for a major corporation earning a respectable amount of money and contributing my fair share of taxes. I am a (part-time) Hindu. I am ethnically Sri Lankan Tamil that is proud of my heritage but yet very comfortable with British values. I am on the progressive side of politics ('lefty' as most on this right-wing blog would call me) who thinks Britain is stronger when working together with other nations (be it the EU, Commonwealth etc.).weejonnie said:
Those who are attacking our culture. We are engaged in 4 wars at the moment:murali_s said:
Who is this 'enemy'?Patrick said:The left assumes that we are all social justice warriors at heart. That comments like 'bunch of migrants' leaves us all outraged. But they couldn't be more wrong. Our national psyche is much more Daily Mail than Daily Mirror. We have seen Peak PC now. I don't think it is any longer uncool or even negative to be proudly in favour of defending our culture, our women, our history, our very civilisation. It is basically dawning on the silent majority that we are in a very real sense at war. And the enemy troops are here in great numbers and millions more are coming. They want to rape our women, push our gays off rooftops, behead our dissenters and pour petrol over our refuseniks. I for one think a giant 'FUCK YOU SUNSHINE' moment is coming. Bring it on!
1) Economic.
2) Religious
3) Cultural
4) Political
Each one has different combinations of enemies with different goals.
Am I at war with you?0 -
60% of what, national parliaments?MP_SE said:0 -
The biggest barrier to social mobility is the sharp slowdown in economic growth, since 2000. In the 50 years prior to that, the number of well-paid jobs grew, and almost everyone could expect their children to be richer than they were. In a low-growth economy, social mobility ceases.0
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I agree. I think interest rates will stay low a bit longer, but have been paying down the capital in my mortgage over the last 5 years. Others however have taken advantage of low rates to borrow more.DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.surbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Each to his own choice, but there is still a mountain of private as well as public debt in this country.
George has not abolished boom and bust any more than Gordon did!0 -
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.foxinsoxuk said:
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.0 -
Those are some pretty broad categories - I should think you'd get most people in at least one of them! Depending on easily one defines an enemy to those categories in your interpretation.weejonnie said:
Those who are attacking our culture. We are engaged in 4 wars at the moment:murali_s said:
Who is this 'enemy'?Patrick said:The left assumes that we are all social justice warriors at heart. That comments like 'bunch of migrants' leaves us all outraged. But they couldn't be more wrong. Our national psyche is much more Daily Mail than Daily Mirror. We have seen Peak PC now. I don't think it is any longer uncool or even negative to be proudly in favour of defending our culture, our women, our history, our very civilisation. It is basically dawning on the silent majority that we are in a very real sense at war. And the enemy troops are here in great numbers and millions more are coming. They want to rape our women, push our gays off rooftops, behead our dissenters and pour petrol over our refuseniks. I for one think a giant 'FUCK YOU SUNSHINE' moment is coming. Bring it on!
1) Economic.
2) Religious
3) Cultural
4) Political
Each one has different combinations of enemies with different goals.0 -
One reason for high net worth individuals to come to the UK is to get a UK, and hence EU, passport.SeanT said:
General instability, in the main (one of London's USPs is its impervious stability). Will scare investors. Also the possibility that jobs, esp in Finance, will migrate from London to Frankfurt and Paris (indeed I think it is almost certain this will happen). With jobs goes prosperity, plus that intangible sense that London is Where It's At In Europe.AndyJS said:Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?
As I say I reckon London would and should recover over a generation, but that's too late for me, speaking from pure selfishness.
The UK passport will continue to be attractive in the event of leaving... but perhaps not so much.
Obviously HNW individuals are only a small part of the property market but they have driven prices up in London.0 -
I thought we would be a free trading country in kipper-cloud-cuckoo land, not in a trade war, but so it goes...RobD said:
Then we slap tariffs on Spanish strawberries. (I'm assuming this on the premise we leave the EU and stop immigration)foxinsoxuk said:
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.RobD said:
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.foxinsoxuk said:
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.RobD said:
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.surbiton said:
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.isam said:
Most people in prison are desperate and poorAndyJS said:
If you don't want the time, don't do the crime.TheScreamingEagles said:Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662735.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
At the end of the day, if it is not economical to grow them here, we shouldn't be growing them here.0 -
If you have any intention of moving to a more expensive flat (in London) at some point you would benefit from low prices.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement and free trade with the EU, it is in everyone's interest. These are scary monsters invented by philes.
However two major things make me tend towards REMAIN. First, selfishly, the initial and significant damage to London, and London property prices. My London flat is my major asset. It could provide a tasty pension. But Brexit could and probably would screw the London propety market for a decade or so. I am sure the city would recover - it always has - but that may be too long for me.
Second, Scotland. I think Scottish independence is now much less likely than it was in 2014. The fall in oil price is a major factor, and the dwindling of the oil reserves themselves, but also Scots don't look keen to make the fatal leap (hence Sturgeon's obvious reluctance to go for indyref 2).
But the one thing that might precipitate indyref 2 and then indy itself (in the closing window of opportunity for Nats) is Brexit.
I'm a unionist and a London property owner, and as a patriot and a selfish man, I may be forced to vote REMAIN.
Hm.
And I very much doubt that the Scots would vote to abandon the UK to join the EU. I don't see why that would make sense for the 55%.0 -
The economics are fairly simple: a fall (rise) in house prices benefits (costs) those who wish to upsize over the next 20 years - and the opposite holds for those who wish to downsize. Size can also be interpreted as moving to a more (less) expensive location.0
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Potentially it could impact St. John's Wood, Primrose Hill and Islington (borders) if all those American bankers start moving to FrankfurtMP_SE said:
An excellent legal system and strong property ownership rights are major reasons as to why London property is so popular with international buyers.AndyJS said:Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?
Post-Brexit this will not change. There will always be a huge demand for London property.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Steve Baker on Dave's emergency brake: “This is looking like the synthetic row we always expected government to manufacture."0 -
As I don't live in Kipperdom I can't possibly comment.foxinsoxuk said:
I thought we would be a free trading country in kipper-cloud-cuckoo land, not in a trade war, but so it goes...
Yes, it probably wouldn't get that far, but my second point stands. If it is cheaper to grow them somewhere else, why not buy them from there? Of course, there are people that would pay a premium to buy British, but if there are cheaper options I don't see why they shouldn't be available.0 -
Like I said, I think it would be good in the long run, but in the short term the speculators and over-mortgaged will suffer. The retail banks too, and negative equity does tend to impact on other aspects of consumer confidence as most peoples capital in this country is tied up in their home. While a 20 % drop is mostly an impact on paper value (if not planning to sell) it does make people see the world differently.HurstLlama said:
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.foxinsoxuk said:
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.0 -
Of course he hasn't. Unlike Brown he is not delusional enough to believe he has.foxinsoxuk said:
I agree. I think interest rates will stay low a bit longer, but have been paying down the capital in my mortgage over the last 5 years. Others however have taken advantage of low rates to borrow more.DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.surbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Each to his own choice, but there is still a mountain of private as well as public debt in this country.
George has not abolished boom and bust any more than Gordon did!
There has been a certain logic in borrowing more in recent times, particularly if you were buying assets that were appreciating but it is that kind of thinking that got us into 2007.0 -
Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue0 -
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.surbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous0 -
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too lateTykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue0 -
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:0 -
One Nation Toryism worthy of the name. Ben Disraeli (and SuperMac) would be proud.Big_G_NorthWales said:
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too lateTykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue0 -
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue0 -
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.Charles said:
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in housesurbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous0 -
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue0 -
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
Well the PM is either a major p*ss taker or a complete joke based on that decision0 -
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit0 -
Or is under 35DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.surbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.0 -
Its the politics of itrunnymede said:David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
Well the PM is either a major p*ss taker or a complete joke based on that decision0 -
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.foxinsoxuk said:
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.Charles said:
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)0 -
Hear hear.TheScreamingEagles said:
One Nation Toryism worthy of the name. Ben Disraeli (and SuperMac) would be proud.Big_G_NorthWales said:
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too lateTykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
The way things are heading, 2020 is going to be a bit of a rout, unless the new Tory leader is a total wally.
One Nation Conservatism (or, in Scotland, One Nation Socialsim - the SNP) v. Dinosaur Labour v. the Liberal Thingies..forgot-their-name v. UKIP (not sure why they're bothering now the referendum has decided..)0 -
Treaty change will not happen for as long as there is instability in the EU. We will be waiting a very very long time before a new treaty emerges.CornishBlue said:
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:0 -
I'm sure people have bought those flats because they're nice places to live in rather than any other motive.foxinsoxuk said:
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.Charles said:
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.foxinsoxuk said:
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in housesurbiton said:
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.another_richard said:
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.surbiton said:
The rest of UK house prices : does it matter ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.SeanT said:I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
http://www.bestadvice.co.uk/majority-fear-brexit-will-hit-property-prices/
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous0 -
A young white man living next door to the young black man Cameron refers to would also be more likely to be in prison than at a top university
Staggering that he should fail to see this0 -
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit0 -
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit0 -
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.0 -
If his comments about black defendants having longer sentences than white ones (for the same crime), it is worth investigating. If black people are more likely to commit crime, that has nothing to do with racism in the justice system, but rather more fundamental problems.isam said:A young white man living next door to the young black man Cameron refers to would also be more likely to be in prison than at a top university
Staggering that he should fail to see this0 -
Speculators would suffer. Well, who cares. Those who are genuinely trying to buy a house with a mortgage that they can afford but who drift into negative equity just need to hold their nerve and stay put, they will not lose out in the long run (we might have been in this position in the early nineties but found not looking at the property news stopped all our anxieties). If a 20% drop in house prices makes people look at the world differently, and may be think about real values and what is really important, then I'd say bring it on.foxinsoxuk said:
Like I said, I think it would be good in the long run, but in the short term the speculators and over-mortgaged will suffer. The retail banks too, and negative equity does tend to impact on other aspects of consumer confidence as most peoples capital in this country is tied up in their home. While a 20 % drop is mostly an impact on paper value (if not planning to sell) it does make people see the world differently.HurstLlama said:
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.foxinsoxuk said:
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.LewisDuckworth said:A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.0 -
Instead Dave chooses a man who sees racism everywhere he looks. Including the colour of smoke used by the Vatican to declare the selection of a new pope.RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit0 -
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Robert Buckland @indyonsunday Tories can break 40% if One Nation push for votes in Birmingham, Manchester, north http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-buckland-the-aspiring-tory-leader-youve-never-heard-of-a6844146.html …0 -
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
0 -
Hang on - thicko Osborne's policies were meant to be sending house prices out of reach! So this must be wrong.Charles said:
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.foxinsoxuk said:
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.Charles said:
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)0 -
Sorry, I don't agree. Firstly, people are not borrowing for less than they can get for an investment. Real interest rates are much higher than base. Secondly, the cost of servicing the loan has been much reduced which makes capital repayment much more manageable. When interest rates are high this is much, much more difficult.Alistair said:
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
If you borrow to the maximum now then you are betting on interest rates not going up until your income does. That is ultimately foolish.0 -
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has wonRobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
I completely agree.isam said:A young white man living next door to the young black man Cameron refers to would also be more likely to be in prison than at a top university
Staggering that he should fail to see this
0 -
People have no realistic way to know who is best for most jobs like this - I sure don't - so of course PR means more than that. It means getting the best person for the job you can who will also be seen to be the best person for the job, because people will make assumptions on the worth of any outcome based upon who is delivering it, and so the on paper best person might end up being ineffective. If the best person is also the person perceived to be the best person, excellent. If not, try to get someone who will do a good job at least. Has that been achieved here? Well, Lammy gets a bad rap whenever he's mentioned here, and he's said some really dumb things, but I hope that is not a portent.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit0 -
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!isam said:
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has wonRobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
Ha, this is precisely what I've been doing. Borrow at 0 - 3%, and invest at 5 - 13%...Alistair said:
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.DavidL said:
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
But we all know most people aren't going to be trying to grow their savings if they're not paying their mortgage down. Most people if they aren't paying their mortgage down will have diddly squat in a (0%) savings account and be blowing the rest on increased consumption.0 -
Precisely, very well saidfoxinsoxuk said:
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
How stupid must someone be not to see this?0 -
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_300 -
Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.foxinsoxuk said:
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.0 -
Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain0
-
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come trueRobD said:
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!isam said:
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has wonRobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.CornishBlue said:
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.0 -
What, a report into the justice system led by a black MP? What dull dreams they must have had.isam said:
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come trueRobD said:
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!isam said:
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has wonRobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_300 -
I would have thought that was the case, yes. Haven't you ever met a socialist?RobD said:
What, a report into the justice system led by a black MP? What dull dreams they must have had.isam said:
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come trueRobD said:
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!isam said:
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has wonRobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
So it's basically useless.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.CornishBlue said:
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.0 -
You may well do - but this appointment drives another wedge into the heart of the Labour Party. Someone who only months ago was vying to be London Mayor is now working for the Tories...Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.0 -
He is also looking at social class too.foxinsoxuk said:
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.0 -
David Cameron's interview about race is deeply conservative, overlaid with a human sympathy for those worse off than himself. It reads like smart politics to me.0
-
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
London market as a whole is down 10-15% since November, and by 20% since the hike in stamp duty to 12%. 30% is a little bit of an outlier, but I understand that the seller screwed up the negotiationsflightpath01 said:
Hang on - thicko Osborne's policies were meant to be sending house prices out of reach! So this must be wrong.Charles said:
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.foxinsoxuk said:
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.Charles said:
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)0 -
I don't care about things like that though it seems a concern for a significant group on the right, but surely on an issue Cameron presumably does not wish to become a partisan one (openly at least), reaching across the aisle is the best chance of actually achieving something?Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
'I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.'
Yes, it's just rubbish again, worthless empty posturing.0 -
His knowledge of electoral geography is rather lacking:Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Robert Buckland @indyonsunday Tories can break 40% if One Nation push for votes in Birmingham, Manchester, north http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-buckland-the-aspiring-tory-leader-youve-never-heard-of-a6844146.html …
“We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”
We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.
Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
0 -
Why not appoint a black or Asian person to a job that is nothing to do with race or religion and a non ethnic minority to this job to stop yourself looking like a predictable lefty?RobD said:
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.Tykejohnno said:
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.0 -
Virtually everything to do with renegotiation is likely to be subject to a treaty change. Do you want to delay everything 'til then? The referendum will be about staying in or out. We already have a rule which means treaty changes have to be agreed by a referendum, so we could accept or reject it ourselves later.CornishBlue said:
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:
I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.0 -
"The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”nigel4england said:
Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.foxinsoxuk said:
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html0 -
There has not been any further devolution in Scotland.flightpath01 said:
The point about Scotland is that once the referendum was out of the way, together with more devolution, then the public was free to throw out Labour MPs. The purpose of the SNP - no matter what anyone else might say - was served, after the vote there was no more independence on offer. The electorate was free to vote against the crass incompetent and corrupt Scottish Labour Party.NickPalmer said:Agree with Stodge that the first vaguely familiar Cabinet name to join Leave will have a big chance of being PM. As we've seen in Scotland, even losing a referendum doesn't necessarily stop the losers from piling in at the next opportunity.
If the referendum is lost for the mixed bunch that is Leave - do you seriously see the public falling over themselves to punish (what for?) Cameron and rush over to Farage and UKIP.
Farage is already plotting his future, on an opposite track to Trump, as a media talking head and reality TV star.0 -
As I have said before, it would probably discredit the whole exercise, rendering it meaningless.isam said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian person to a job that is nothing to do with race or religion and a non ethnic minority to this job to stop yourself looking like a predictable lefty?RobD said:
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey Mark Pritchard is backing Remain
0 -
No - they review the report and then decide whether to follow the recommendations or not.Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0 -
No good news,the polls ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.Tykejohnno said:
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.0 -
I read it as patronizing and insincere. The usual Cameron cocktail.AlastairMeeks said:David Cameron's interview about race is deeply conservative, overlaid with a human sympathy for those worse off than himself. It reads like smart politics to me.
0 -
Every news day is a good day for Leave.TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.Tykejohnno said:
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.0 -
Looks it to me but await further details. Negotiation also not over yet. There really needs to be some mechanism to protect non-Euro members from new laws or we'll be completely marginalised.RobD said:
So it's basically useless.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.CornishBlue said:
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...MP_SE said:
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.0 -
'The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.'
Be careful not to be too self-important0 -
You'll get into trouble, Doc, if you keep publishing facts like that.foxinsoxuk said:
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/suttonnick/status/693558806828158976
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
However, since you have given us such a breakdown I wonder what the problem is that needs to be solved. Should we aim for more white medical students at the expense of the BMEs? Should we aim at fewer females (lots of part time working a few years down the line) and take more chaps? If we go for more white males from state schools then there will be fewer women and BME students - sexism and racism!
What is the problem that needs to be solved?0 -
Several Birmingham seats, other similar towns such as Wolverhampton and a bunch of Manchester surrounds.another_richard said:
His knowledge of electoral geography is rather lacking:Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Robert Buckland @indyonsunday Tories can break 40% if One Nation push for votes in Birmingham, Manchester, north http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-buckland-the-aspiring-tory-leader-youve-never-heard-of-a6844146.html …
“We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”
We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.
Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
What's the problem?0 -
The polls are moving in spite of Leave.EU and Vote Leave, not because of them.Tykejohnno said:
No good news,the polls ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.Tykejohnno said:
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
As my post said
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.0 -
But, if one gets a left-wing report, the "something" that's achieved will be undesirable.kle4 said:
I don't care about things like that though it seems a concern for a significant group on the right, but surely on an issue Cameron presumably does not wish to become a partisan one (openly at least), reaching across the aisle is the best chance of actually achieving something?Sean_F said:
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.RobD said:
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.Sean_F said:
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.RobD said:
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start.isam said:
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?RobD said:
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.isam said:
TokenismSean_F said:
It does seem to be a strange choice.MP_SE said:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.Tykejohnno said:Sunder Katwala @sundersays
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
Gotta be a black bloke innit
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.0
