A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 28s28 seconds ago Cameron will say emergency brake to curb migrant benefits must start immediately if he is to accept deal in talks with Tusk. See S.Times
Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?
General instability, in the main (one of London's USPs is its impervious stability). Will scare investors. Also the possibility that jobs, esp in Finance, will migrate from London to Frankfurt and Paris (indeed I think it is almost certain this will happen). With jobs goes prosperity, plus that intangible sense that London is Where It's At In Europe.
As I say I reckon London would and should recover over a generation, but that's too late for me, speaking from pure selfishness.
Mr. T, what are these jobs that you think would bugger off to Paris and Frankfurt? Don't, please, get me wrong, if some of our criminal bankers want to go and feck up someone else's economy for a change I'd be delighted. However, I am at a loss to see what jobs would suddenly be better done (i.e. more profitable for the employers) on the continent than in London.
To be sure the EU could try and impose some silly law to the effect that the Euro can only be traded in a Euro country but that is never going to work as they found out the last time the idea was floated. London will remain pre-eminent because it has the liquidity in its markets, the massive pool of qualified people, the back-up services of insurance etc. and a rock solid legal system back-stopping the whole thing.
London has for centuries, ever since the we fought with the Dutch for the privilege, been the money capital of the world. That might, probably willm one day change, but it will not change if the UK leaves the EU.
A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.
Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.
Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.
Then we slap tariffs on Spanish strawberries. (I'm assuming this on the premise we leave the EU and stop immigration)
At the end of the day, if it is not economical to grow them here, we shouldn't be growing them here.
A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.
Yes, it would somewhat reduce the property wealth of many Londoners by (say) £100-150k closer to £1,000,000 - but if it clipped £15,000 off a £150,000 terrace in Birmingham, Coventry, or Northampton, this would be a most desirable redistribution
The left assumes that we are all social justice warriors at heart. That comments like 'bunch of migrants' leaves us all outraged. But they couldn't be more wrong. Our national psyche is much more Daily Mail than Daily Mirror. We have seen Peak PC now. I don't think it is any longer uncool or even negative to be proudly in favour of defending our culture, our women, our history, our very civilisation. It is basically dawning on the silent majority that we are in a very real sense at war. And the enemy troops are here in great numbers and millions more are coming. They want to rape our women, push our gays off rooftops, behead our dissenters and pour petrol over our refuseniks. I for one think a giant 'FUCK YOU SUNSHINE' moment is coming. Bring it on!
Who is this 'enemy'?
Those who are attacking our culture. We are engaged in 4 wars at the moment:
1) Economic. 2) Religious 3) Cultural 4) Political
Each one has different combinations of enemies with different goals.
I am a second generation 'immigrant'. I am a professional working for a major corporation earning a respectable amount of money and contributing my fair share of taxes. I am a (part-time) Hindu. I am ethnically Sri Lankan Tamil that is proud of my heritage but yet very comfortable with British values. I am on the progressive side of politics ('lefty' as most on this right-wing blog would call me) who thinks Britain is stronger when working together with other nations (be it the EU, Commonwealth etc.).
The biggest barrier to social mobility is the sharp slowdown in economic growth, since 2000. In the 50 years prior to that, the number of well-paid jobs grew, and almost everyone could expect their children to be richer than they were. In a low-growth economy, social mobility ceases.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
I agree. I think interest rates will stay low a bit longer, but have been paying down the capital in my mortgage over the last 5 years. Others however have taken advantage of low rates to borrow more.
Each to his own choice, but there is still a mountain of private as well as public debt in this country.
George has not abolished boom and bust any more than Gordon did!
A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.
The left assumes that we are all social justice warriors at heart. That comments like 'bunch of migrants' leaves us all outraged. But they couldn't be more wrong. Our national psyche is much more Daily Mail than Daily Mirror. We have seen Peak PC now. I don't think it is any longer uncool or even negative to be proudly in favour of defending our culture, our women, our history, our very civilisation. It is basically dawning on the silent majority that we are in a very real sense at war. And the enemy troops are here in great numbers and millions more are coming. They want to rape our women, push our gays off rooftops, behead our dissenters and pour petrol over our refuseniks. I for one think a giant 'FUCK YOU SUNSHINE' moment is coming. Bring it on!
Who is this 'enemy'?
Those who are attacking our culture. We are engaged in 4 wars at the moment:
1) Economic. 2) Religious 3) Cultural 4) Political
Each one has different combinations of enemies with different goals.
Those are some pretty broad categories - I should think you'd get most people in at least one of them! Depending on easily one defines an enemy to those categories in your interpretation.
Why would Brexit make London property prices go down?
General instability, in the main (one of London's USPs is its impervious stability). Will scare investors. Also the possibility that jobs, esp in Finance, will migrate from London to Frankfurt and Paris (indeed I think it is almost certain this will happen). With jobs goes prosperity, plus that intangible sense that London is Where It's At In Europe.
As I say I reckon London would and should recover over a generation, but that's too late for me, speaking from pure selfishness.
One reason for high net worth individuals to come to the UK is to get a UK, and hence EU, passport.
The UK passport will continue to be attractive in the event of leaving... but perhaps not so much.
Obviously HNW individuals are only a small part of the property market but they have driven prices up in London.
Cameron displaying his one nation credentials in the Sunday Times
WHEN Enoch Powell stirred racial fury with his notorious “Rivers of Blood” speech in 1968, he recounted a conversation he claimed to have had with a constituent, “a decent, ordinary fellow-Englishman”.
Powell, who was subsequently sacked from the Tory shadow cabinet, quoted the man as saying: “In this country in 15 or 20 years’ time the black man will have the whip hand over the white man.”
Almost half a century later, it has fallen to another prominent Conservative figure to demonstrate how wrong that prediction was. It is to Britain’s enduring shame, David Cameron writes in The Sunday Times today, that a young black man in Britain is “more likely to be in a prison cell than studying at a top university”.
Mass immigration means that immigrants tend to go straight to the bottom of society, do the worst jobs, be involved in crime etc because they are the poorest, not because of any racial or cultural difference
Another reason why we should only take in those in middle to high ranking employment and not just anyone who fancies it; it gives our own poor the chance to earn a living, and prevents immigrants from experiencing the problems Cameron refers to
Who will clean the offices ? Pick the strawberries ? Serve you in restaurants ? Because no one t wants to pay any more for the produce or the services.
If no one wants to do it, pay will increase and some people will then want to do it. That, or the supply of strawberries will fall.
At that point we eat Spanish rather than Kentish strawberries.
Until the supply of Spanish strawberries runs low, increasing the price again.
Spain is a big country with a lot of unemployment, they can easily plant more.
Then we slap tariffs on Spanish strawberries. (I'm assuming this on the premise we leave the EU and stop immigration)
At the end of the day, if it is not economical to grow them here, we shouldn't be growing them here.
I thought we would be a free trading country in kipper-cloud-cuckoo land, not in a trade war, but so it goes...
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement and free trade with the EU, it is in everyone's interest. These are scary monsters invented by philes.
However two major things make me tend towards REMAIN. First, selfishly, the initial and significant damage to London, and London property prices. My London flat is my major asset. It could provide a tasty pension. But Brexit could and probably would screw the London propety market for a decade or so. I am sure the city would recover - it always has - but that may be too long for me.
Second, Scotland. I think Scottish independence is now much less likely than it was in 2014. The fall in oil price is a major factor, and the dwindling of the oil reserves themselves, but also Scots don't look keen to make the fatal leap (hence Sturgeon's obvious reluctance to go for indyref 2).
But the one thing that might precipitate indyref 2 and then indy itself (in the closing window of opportunity for Nats) is Brexit.
I'm a unionist and a London property owner, and as a patriot and a selfish man, I may be forced to vote REMAIN.
Hm.
If you have any intention of moving to a more expensive flat (in London) at some point you would benefit from low prices.
And I very much doubt that the Scots would vote to abandon the UK to join the EU. I don't see why that would make sense for the 55%.
The economics are fairly simple: a fall (rise) in house prices benefits (costs) those who wish to upsize over the next 20 years - and the opposite holds for those who wish to downsize. Size can also be interpreted as moving to a more (less) expensive location.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound Steve Baker on Dave's emergency brake: “This is looking like the synthetic row we always expected government to manufacture."
I thought we would be a free trading country in kipper-cloud-cuckoo land, not in a trade war, but so it goes...
As I don't live in Kipperdom I can't possibly comment.
Yes, it probably wouldn't get that far, but my second point stands. If it is cheaper to grow them somewhere else, why not buy them from there? Of course, there are people that would pay a premium to buy British, but if there are cheaper options I don't see why they shouldn't be available.
A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.
Like I said, I think it would be good in the long run, but in the short term the speculators and over-mortgaged will suffer. The retail banks too, and negative equity does tend to impact on other aspects of consumer confidence as most peoples capital in this country is tied up in their home. While a 20 % drop is mostly an impact on paper value (if not planning to sell) it does make people see the world differently.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
I agree. I think interest rates will stay low a bit longer, but have been paying down the capital in my mortgage over the last 5 years. Others however have taken advantage of low rates to borrow more.
Each to his own choice, but there is still a mountain of private as well as public debt in this country.
George has not abolished boom and bust any more than Gordon did!
Of course he hasn't. Unlike Brown he is not delusional enough to believe he has.
There has been a certain logic in borrowing more in recent times, particularly if you were buying assets that were appreciating but it is that kind of thinking that got us into 2007.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too late
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too late
One Nation Toryism worthy of the name. Ben Disraeli (and SuperMac) would be proud.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house prices to push a lot of people underwater into negative equity.
Obviously the shortage of supply relative to demand is not being solved quickly, but then George is promising a housebuilding spree. The Chinese are not buying in London, and the Russians and Arabs are heading towards distress sales to to problems with their own domestic assets. A few sales could turn into a rout in London, leading to a wave of selling. The negative equity would lead to a futher round of stress on the retail banks.
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)
David Cameron is moving his tanks onto Labour's lawn with this, his crusade against poverty, national living wage and making English compulsory, while Labour are fighting themselves to destruction. By the time Labour wakes up it will be too late
One Nation Toryism worthy of the name. Ben Disraeli (and SuperMac) would be proud.
Hear hear.
The way things are heading, 2020 is going to be a bit of a rout, unless the new Tory leader is a total wally.
One Nation Conservatism (or, in Scotland, One Nation Socialsim - the SNP) v. Dinosaur Labour v. the Liberal Thingies..forgot-their-name v. UKIP (not sure why they're bothering now the referendum has decided..)
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
Treaty change will not happen for as long as there is instability in the EU. We will be waiting a very very long time before a new treaty emerges.
I see that earlier people were giving their honest reasons for being REMAIN or LEAVE
Here's mine.
Economically and politically I am tending to LEAVE. I think we'd do just fine - longterm - outside the EU, and we would probably be a happier country, more comfortable in its own skin, more oriented to natural partners like Aus, NZ, Canada, SA, USA. If that makes us a larger form of Switzerland, so be it, Switzerland is a deeply admirable country, in plenty of ways
I also think we'd negotiate free movement
Hm.
Is interesting, I've written a thread for tomorrow which discusses the impact on house prices of Brexit.
You are not alone.
Research has suggested that 55% of British homeowners think exiting the European Union will have an impact on house prices in the UK.
The research by online estate agent, eMoov.co.uk found that, of the 55% that believe the price of their property will be effected, 34% think leaving the EU would actually strengthen the value of their home, with just 21% believing it will lead to a decrease in their property price.
London Labour's attitude to the rest of the UK expressed in under ten words.
Actually, you can drop the word "Labour" from it. Make it 9 words. Do you think most Londoners even know the house prices in the provinces.
Many Britons remain fairly heavily mortgaged, due to low inflation no longer eroding their debts and low interest rates encouraging large debts. It wouldn't take much of a downturn in in house
I reckon I can weather the storm but I would steer clear of buying property at the moment. Brexit could well be the precipitating factor of an avalanche of trouble.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.
I'm sure people have bought those flats because they're nice places to live in rather than any other motive.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
A young white man living next door to the young black man Cameron refers to would also be more likely to be in prison than at a top university
Staggering that he should fail to see this
If his comments about black defendants having longer sentences than white ones (for the same crime), it is worth investigating. If black people are more likely to commit crime, that has nothing to do with racism in the justice system, but rather more fundamental problems.
A reduction in house prices - that, for me, is an additional benefit of Brexit: a desirable shift in net wealth from older property owners to those barely on (or with insufficient income to yet get on) the property ladder.
In the longish run then a correction in houseprices would be welcome, but the short term effects would hurt a lot of people, particularly in London and the South East.
Who would it hurt, Doc? People who already own their properties would find their paper wealth less than what it was, and so what, who cares . The people who are buying a home on a mortgage would find their value to debt ratio not as good as it was, but providing they can afford to service the mortgage that don't matter.
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.
Like I said, I think it would be good in the long run, but in the short term the speculators and over-mortgaged will suffer. The retail banks too, and negative equity does tend to impact on other aspects of consumer confidence as most peoples capital in this country is tied up in their home. While a 20 % drop is mostly an impact on paper value (if not planning to sell) it does make people see the world differently.
Speculators would suffer. Well, who cares. Those who are genuinely trying to buy a house with a mortgage that they can afford but who drift into negative equity just need to hold their nerve and stay put, they will not lose out in the long run (we might have been in this position in the early nineties but found not looking at the property news stopped all our anxieties). If a 20% drop in house prices makes people look at the world differently, and may be think about real values and what is really important, then I'd say bring it on.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
Instead Dave chooses a man who sees racism everywhere he looks. Including the colour of smoke used by the Vatican to declare the selection of a new pope.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)
Hang on - thicko Osborne's policies were meant to be sending house prices out of reach! So this must be wrong.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
Sorry, I don't agree. Firstly, people are not borrowing for less than they can get for an investment. Real interest rates are much higher than base. Secondly, the cost of servicing the loan has been much reduced which makes capital repayment much more manageable. When interest rates are high this is much, much more difficult.
If you borrow to the maximum now then you are betting on interest rates not going up until your income does. That is ultimately foolish.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has won
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
People have no realistic way to know who is best for most jobs like this - I sure don't - so of course PR means more than that. It means getting the best person for the job you can who will also be seen to be the best person for the job, because people will make assumptions on the worth of any outcome based upon who is delivering it, and so the on paper best person might end up being ineffective. If the best person is also the person perceived to be the best person, excellent. If not, try to get someone who will do a good job at least. Has that been achieved here? Well, Lammy gets a bad rap whenever he's mentioned here, and he's said some really dumb things, but I hope that is not a portent.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has won
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Seriously, anyone who has not used the last 7 years of emergency base rates to pay down their mortgage has simply not being paying attention.
This has been exactly the time to not pay down your mortgage and invest in something more productive. You pay down your mortgage when interest ratea are high.
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
Ha, this is precisely what I've been doing. Borrow at 0 - 3%, and invest at 5 - 13%...
But we all know most people aren't going to be trying to grow their savings if they're not paying their mortgage down. Most people if they aren't paying their mortgage down will have diddly squat in a (0%) savings account and be blowing the rest on increased consumption.
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has won
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come true
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has won
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come true
What, a report into the justice system led by a black MP? What dull dreams they must have had.
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
A tragic state of affairs. Evidence that although we have a Tory govt, the left has won
Hm, that does seem to be a bit hyperbolic!
Isn't it true? This is what the loony left in the 80s dreamed of, and their dreams have come true
What, a report into the justice system led by a black MP? What dull dreams they must have had.
I would have thought that was the case, yes. Haven't you ever met a socialist?
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
You may well do - but this appointment drives another wedge into the heart of the Labour Party. Someone who only months ago was vying to be London Mayor is now working for the Tories...
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
David Cameron's interview about race is deeply conservative, overlaid with a human sympathy for those worse off than himself. It reads like smart politics to me.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.
I've been told that there will be a lot of defaults on new build properties over the next 12-18 months (by this I mean Chinese buyers who put 10% down for an off-plan flat). They are very unlikely to complete and will just walk away from their deposit.
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
The crash in the Chinese stock markets is significant here as a much higher percentage of private investors compared to institutional ones. It is likely to force distress sales of other assets, starting with the most dubious of these. Off plan flats in London for instance.
The point is that they don't own the asset - they will just walk away from the deposit. It will be the property companies that are forced into a fire sale to shift inventory.
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)
Hang on - thicko Osborne's policies were meant to be sending house prices out of reach! So this must be wrong.
London market as a whole is down 10-15% since November, and by 20% since the hike in stamp duty to 12%. 30% is a little bit of an outlier, but I understand that the seller screwed up the negotiations
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
I don't care about things like that though it seems a concern for a significant group on the right, but surely on an issue Cameron presumably does not wish to become a partisan one (openly at least), reaching across the aisle is the best chance of actually achieving something?
His knowledge of electoral geography is rather lacking:
“We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”
We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.
Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.
Why not appoint a black or Asian person to a job that is nothing to do with race or religion and a non ethnic minority to this job to stop yourself looking like a predictable lefty?
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
Virtually everything to do with renegotiation is likely to be subject to a treaty change. Do you want to delay everything 'til then? The referendum will be about staying in or out. We already have a rule which means treaty changes have to be agreed by a referendum, so we could accept or reject it ourselves later. I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
Best way to boost social mobility is bring back grammar schools, but a Lib Dem like you is more ruled by political dogma than reality.
"The evidence shows quite clearly that selection serves to reproduce and reinforce existing patterns of disadvantage. It’s like taking every inequality that has emerged in the first 10 years of a child’s life and then saying, ‘Right, let’s institutionalise that through a parallel schooling system.’”
The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.
Agree with Stodge that the first vaguely familiar Cabinet name to join Leave will have a big chance of being PM. As we've seen in Scotland, even losing a referendum doesn't necessarily stop the losers from piling in at the next opportunity.
The point about Scotland is that once the referendum was out of the way, together with more devolution, then the public was free to throw out Labour MPs. The purpose of the SNP - no matter what anyone else might say - was served, after the vote there was no more independence on offer. The electorate was free to vote against the crass incompetent and corrupt Scottish Labour Party. If the referendum is lost for the mixed bunch that is Leave - do you seriously see the public falling over themselves to punish (what for?) Cameron and rush over to Farage and UKIP. Farage is already plotting his future, on an opposite track to Trump, as a media talking head and reality TV star.
There has not been any further devolution in Scotland.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
Why not appoint someone apolitical? I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic minority barristers/judges who could lead such a review.
Why not appoint a black or Asian person to a job that is nothing to do with race or religion and a non ethnic minority to this job to stop yourself looking like a predictable lefty?
As I have said before, it would probably discredit the whole exercise, rendering it meaningless.
I saw him speak at an event a while back and the Eurosceptic audience were very very hostile towards him and his thoughts on the EU. One lady was so vocal it bordered on screaming.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
No - they review the report and then decide whether to follow the recommendations or not.
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
David Cameron's interview about race is deeply conservative, overlaid with a human sympathy for those worse off than himself. It reads like smart politics to me.
I read it as patronizing and insincere. The usual Cameron cocktail.
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
This will require treaty change. Which could only take place years after the UK referendum. So we will be voting on something that may or may not actually come about. Quelle surprise. What are the bets that we will vote to Remain and then the reforms never come about...
I thought the red card system was to stop Eurozone dominance? If you need 60% of parliaments, non-Euro countries are still powerless.
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.
So it's basically useless.
Looks it to me but await further details. Negotiation also not over yet. There really needs to be some mechanism to protect non-Euro members from new laws or we'll be completely marginalised.
'The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.'
Tell Dave to look at social class rather than race. It is a much stronger predictor of getting into University. My Medical School intake is about 70% female and 45% BME, mostly British Asians. Of the 30% who are white males, these are mostly from private schools. White males from state schools are way at the back of the queue.
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
You'll get into trouble, Doc, if you keep publishing facts like that.
However, since you have given us such a breakdown I wonder what the problem is that needs to be solved. Should we aim for more white medical students at the expense of the BMEs? Should we aim at fewer females (lots of part time working a few years down the line) and take more chaps? If we go for more white males from state schools then there will be fewer women and BME students - sexism and racism!
His knowledge of electoral geography is rather lacking:
“We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”
We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.
Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:
From the Sunday Times, as foretold, The Judean People's Front vs the People's Front for Judea fighting was going to have consequences like this
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
You said you do anti 'In' post on the EU referendum,don't see many.
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
No good news,the polls ?
The polls are moving in spite of Leave.EU and Vote Leave, not because of them.
As my post said
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.
David Lammy??? I wouldn't trust him to make a cup of tea led alone lead a review in to the justice system.
It does seem to be a strange choice.
Tokenism
Gotta be a black bloke innit
Can you imagine the media furore if it had been a old white man doing the review? It would have been a PR disaster.
PR means more than getting the best people for the job?
The entire thing would have probably been discredited from the start. I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Appoint a left wing MP, and you'll get a left wing report, slating judges, police, and prosecutors as racist. And, so, when the next Rotherham-type scandal comes up, the authorities will decide it makes sense to look the other way.
Yes. I should be clear that I am not defending Lammy, but rather pointing out why it wouldn't have been feasible for it to have been an aging white man.
Why not appoint a black or Asian Conservative? They do exist.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
I don't care about things like that though it seems a concern for a significant group on the right, but surely on an issue Cameron presumably does not wish to become a partisan one (openly at least), reaching across the aisle is the best chance of actually achieving something?
But, if one gets a left-wing report, the "something" that's achieved will be undesirable.
Comments
twitter.com/SteveBlogs1/status/693505337954037761
Feminist indoctrination by English Lit coursework for OCR exam board,
Set Texts are The Bloody Chamber, The World's Wife and Much Ado About Nothing.
Cameron will say emergency brake to curb migrant benefits must start immediately if he is to accept deal in talks with Tusk. See S.Times
To be sure the EU could try and impose some silly law to the effect that the Euro can only be traded in a Euro country but that is never going to work as they found out the last time the idea was floated. London will remain pre-eminent because it has the liquidity in its markets, the massive pool of qualified people, the back-up services of insurance etc. and a rock solid legal system back-stopping the whole thing.
London has for centuries, ever since the we fought with the Dutch for the privilege, been the money capital of the world. That might, probably willm one day change, but it will not change if the UK leaves the EU.
^ Interesting.
At the end of the day, if it is not economical to grow them here, we shouldn't be growing them here.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/693554084738113537
Am I at war with you?
Each to his own choice, but there is still a mountain of private as well as public debt in this country.
George has not abolished boom and bust any more than Gordon did!
So who will a drop in house prices hurt? The people who are not buying a home but gambling on the market? Does anyone care about such people and wh do you think they are concentrated down here in London and the South East?
On the other hand ask who a drop in property prices would help and then we see a much happier picture. Young couples starting out in life together who could afford to buy a home. Just that would do for me, doesn't matter the paper loss I would take.
The UK passport will continue to be attractive in the event of leaving... but perhaps not so much.
Obviously HNW individuals are only a small part of the property market but they have driven prices up in London.
And I very much doubt that the Scots would vote to abandon the UK to join the EU. I don't see why that would make sense for the 55%.
Steve Baker on Dave's emergency brake: “This is looking like the synthetic row we always expected government to manufacture."
Yes, it probably wouldn't get that far, but my second point stands. If it is cheaper to grow them somewhere else, why not buy them from there? Of course, there are people that would pay a premium to buy British, but if there are cheaper options I don't see why they shouldn't be available.
There has been a certain logic in borrowing more in recent times, particularly if you were buying assets that were appreciating but it is that kind of thinking that got us into 2007.
Cameron asks Tottenham Labour MP David Lammy to lead review into racism in justice system http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-appoints-david-lammy-to-lead-review-into-racism-in-the-justice-system-a6844081.html … v.good crossparty issue
This is making the flat-based companies in London very nervous
Well the PM is either a major p*ss taker or a complete joke based on that decision
Gotta be a black bloke innit
(BTW I've been hearing of property sales in central London at 30% off asking)
The way things are heading, 2020 is going to be a bit of a rout, unless the new Tory leader is a total wally.
One Nation Conservatism (or, in Scotland, One Nation Socialsim - the SNP) v. Dinosaur Labour v. the Liberal Thingies..forgot-their-name v. UKIP (not sure why they're bothering now the referendum has decided..)
Staggering that he should fail to see this
If I have a 1.5% mortgage and a 3% saving account then it would be the acme of foolishness to take then money from the saving account to pay off the mortgage.
This advice contingent on the exact T&Cs governing overpayments on a hypothetical mortgage obviously.
I should add that Lammy is (very) far from the ideal choice. Probably should have been someone from outside Parliament who works in the profession.
Robert Buckland @indyonsunday Tories can break 40% if One Nation push for votes in Birmingham, Manchester, north http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-buckland-the-aspiring-tory-leader-youve-never-heard-of-a6844146.html …
Similarly look at the social class of people in prison, whether black, white or asian and you will find social class the strongest predictor, alongside indicators of family disintegration such as having been in care.
If you borrow to the maximum now then you are betting on interest rates not going up until your income does. That is ultimately foolish.
But we all know most people aren't going to be trying to grow their savings if they're not paying their mortgage down. Most people if they aren't paying their mortgage down will have diddly squat in a (0%) savings account and be blowing the rest on increased consumption.
How stupid must someone be not to see this?
But in a boost for Cameron, Eurosceptic Tory MPs are refusing to join the “out” campaign after a week of infighting which saw a botched coup against Dominic Cummings, the campaign director of Vote Leave.
Up to 150 Tories had been expected to oppose Cameron but only 70 MPs are now likely to do so and just 35 are certain.
Arron Banks, who runs Leave.EU, a rival organisation, is now trying to persuade MPs, donors and even Vote Leave’s chief executive, Matthew Elliott, to dump Cummings and join him in a unified group. Banks wants to put John Mills, the Labour donor who is on Vote Leave’s board, in charge with Elliott responsible for recruiting donors.
One source familiar with the exchanges said: “It’s a fluid situation and the fluid is blood.”
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1662901.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2016_01_30
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.
The problem with parking your tanks on Labour's lawn is that you become Labour.
To be honest, given most govts in European Council will have majorities in their parliaments, can't imagine 60% ever disagreeing with Council.'
Yes, it's just rubbish again, worthless empty posturing.
“We haven’t done enough of that – we haven’t broken through the 40 per cent barrier. Having that ability to reach out to parts of the country which have so far proved resistant to our charms has got to be the next challenge ... the Birminghams and the Manchesters.”
We've been hearing this obsession with cities from Cameroons for a decade.
Here's a reminder of where Conservative gains are most likely:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
The other day I asked Vote Leave and Leave.EU the following
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.
I presume such a change would mean that after governments had agreed an EU law by straight QMV then parliaments would vote and it would need 60% by QMV to agree to continue. So this seems quite a change and could be a recipe for chaos according to how rebellious parliaments turn out to be.
The evidence from selective Bucks is the opposite of what you claim - Grammar schools reduce social mobility. Which is why the support for them comes mostly from wealthier people.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/grammar-schools-do-not-boost-social-mobility-report-says-a6697401.html
1) Do they have any plans for canvassing in Sheffield/South Yorkshire, because Remain have got their arse in gear have already started canvassing/doing the grunt work
2) Would they be prepared to put up someone for Keiran's podcasts
I've heard nothing on either score.
Remain have already indicated they would send someone for the podcasts.'
Be careful not to be too self-important
However, since you have given us such a breakdown I wonder what the problem is that needs to be solved. Should we aim for more white medical students at the expense of the BMEs? Should we aim at fewer females (lots of part time working a few years down the line) and take more chaps? If we go for more white males from state schools then there will be fewer women and BME students - sexism and racism!
What is the problem that needs to be solved?
What's the problem?
As my post said
Right now there's not much good news from the Leave side.
Vote Leave and Leave.EU are more interested in fighting each other than taking on Remain.