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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held.
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https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952
Too Agatha Christie for our Mr T.
How about The Beautiful Harbinger?
They all court the money and they all court the media, except for one.
although thats more new year.
How about "Bad tidings we bring"
or something along those lines...
'Bad Tidings We Bring' is a great title - but for an episode of Midsommer Murders perhaps.
Rumour has it, it might be Sen. Jeff Sessions.
I was thinking of joke titles for the book, but they were all too cornea ...
I guess there aren't too many New York liberals who advocate walls and banning muslim immigrants.
"Low vision" / "Deep vision"?
He IS the establishment.
If that's what the New York liberals are saying in private, then goodness knows what the Alabama rednecks are saying....
He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.
Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.
hmm close: MSM: Bad Tidings
What about "The Last Mother"? (Unclear which mother it refers to)
I guess it has been used before but I don't find it when I Google (except with "Fucker Breathing" after it).
"The way through the woods"
Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.
The Axe Will Fall
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
But it would still be *possible* for him to lose.
Edit - no, you answered someone else's question but didn't do the 'blockquote' thingy.
Anyway, I agree. Jeb also has no charisma.
One clear leader who is not the flavour of the month with the party establishment; everyone else more interested in positioning themselves against the other "serious" candidates than attacking him; the leader grabbing all the headlines with a series of off the wall statements; no one else having much to say; last minute panic as the also rans suddenly grasp this is serious; some half hearted attacks when it is already too late and disaster ensues.
Only the last chapter has yet to be written. Everything else is as spooky as a SeanT novel.
This weather's a bit rubbish. High winds make the dog giddy, which is less than delightful when we're next to a road...
Edited extra bit: Deceit Or Death?
I'd pick that up.
The Stepstone Teller or The Stepstone Seer
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!
Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.
This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.
But he will come in again if he wins NH.
The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
Bush's strategy is clearly to be in the last few by sheer force of money. Is the volume of cash for him holding the price down, or do the Republican Establishment think that if they can get him to the Convention they can somehow broker a deal for him?
"But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.
Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats."
"Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. "
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
Someone needs to stick up a Winson vs Lib Dem match bet market though.
The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.
EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!
Stake; £50
"Your bet has been referred to a trader, please wait for a response..."
"Sorry this is a time limited price"
New stake £18
It was a wonder of modern English.
Would Hillary win against Trump? As things stand, yes. Given all probable developments before November, she still should do but it's likely to be close and Trump could well do it. As you say, his figures right now are dire but those aren't the voters he's pitching to at the moment.
If I do more than one AV thread per year, you'll get a sugar rush.
But fret not, there will be real excitement this year. Mike and I have both realised I will be guest editor during the EURef.
As we all know. nothing major happens when Mike goes on holiday.
Interesting angle eh? i.e. that 'Europe' is a 'world power', or should be. A good example of the completely different mindset most Europeans have about what the EU's purpose is.
If the UK's exit sabotages this notion of 'Europe a Nation' then so much the better.
No holiday for the Casino household this year if I lose.