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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes online: LAB still 11% behind and 73% say party divided

On voting intention there’s no change with the Tories on 40% and LAB on 29%. But it’s the other findings that should concern those in the Labour Party who are hoping for an early return to power.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    During his honeymoon lol
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Sub-optimal polling for Ozzy too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/688443315319107584
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Mike

    So ComRes is another poll that Corbynistas can be in denial about. These figures are dire.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Maomentum_: Here the use of the word 'widely' illustrates how the meaning of words develops and changes over time. Fascinating. https://t.co/jLGZmrficb

    And thusly...

    @Maomentum_: Poll shows it is 'widely' thought that @jeremycorbyn would be a good prime minister. https://t.co/c3y7OrejrH
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I think what Labour needs to do to get better poll numbers is use Ken Livingstone more. Maybe send him on TV occasionally, give him a high profile policy job, something like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    I wish there were options on who would be an ok PM. Cameron's 'goodness' as a PM isn't stellar, but he's not been a disaster either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

    I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,129
    I am amazed labour continue to run as they do. The only possible issue they seem to be on the side of the public on is the junior doctor strike. Coupled with poor leadership ratings, labour are looking down the barrel of a gun and no one seems to have the guts, or indeed the vision, to deal with it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    edited January 2016
    Only 11% still. Jeremy is obviously a lucky general.

    Supplementaries are quite shite for the red team though, so given the pollsters' record last May even that 29% looks soft.

    Also overwhelming proof that the difference is understood between free movement of labour and free movement of people - the latter being incompatible with the welfare state.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2016
    Labour on 29% online.

    That's their home ground.

    God help them when they have to play away from home in a real vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    Scott_P said:

    @Maomentum_: Here the use of the word 'widely' illustrates how the meaning of words develops and changes over time. Fascinating. https://t.co/jLGZmrficb

    And thusly...

    @Maomentum_: Poll shows it is 'widely' thought that @jeremycorbyn would be a good prime minister. https://t.co/c3y7OrejrH

    22% is 9m voters, who think he'd be a good PM. The problem is 23m disagree.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Bad news for Leave in this poll

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    That said, the ComRes poll sees most people expect us to vote to Leave
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/688445708454744065
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. Eagles, I spotted not quite a typo but an entirely unintended innuendo in a first draft. Fortunately, it was comedy, so I just left it in :p
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

    I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.
    Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad news for Leave in this poll

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

    It seems odd that this is presented as "a boost to keep Britain in the EU". Even if they support that policy when asked, it doesn't necessarily follow that they would then vote to stay in if the policy is passed.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

    Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bad news for Leave in this poll

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

    Won't this save just tens of millions a year? Pocket change which will achieve very little.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    I guess it could be worse for Labour. In the days before the Fixed Parliament Act, the PM could consider calling a snap election this Autumn in order to improve his working majority, entirely at his own discretion.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    I'm surprised that ANYONE thinks that Labour is united as both the Corbynistas and the anti-Corbynistas are open about how much they oppose the others.

    Yet more evidence that some people will give contrarian views to any question.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    david_herdson said:

    Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

    A result a la 1931 would be delicious, though 1935 and 1924 would be equally acceptable.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    david_herdson said:

    Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

    And much of the next few months is going to be focussed on Lab's defence review.

    Defence is by far the most toxic subject for Lab - they will lose more votes over Defence than anything else.

    Even just having the subject talked about on TV is disastrous for Lab.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    Even on these numbers and unchanged boundaries, Tories get 18 gains (15 from Lab, 2 from LD, 1 from SNP) and PC gain 1 (from Lab). Comfortable majority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

    I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.
    Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?
    Yup.

    Back in 2012 when Labour were polling in the mid 40s and the Tories in the early 30s, the Sunday Times had a YouGov poll with Lab on 42% and the Tories on 34%.

    I messaged Mike the figures, but it had a typo, Lab 42% and Tories on 43%

    Nearly sent Mike into meltdown
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    54% back renewing Trident as long as other nations have nuclear weapons, 22% opposed.
    https://twitter.com/britainelects?lang=en-gb
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattSingh_: Customary reminder that tiny, GB-level raked crosstabs can be very misleading. Poll does NOT mean that Labour is in 4th place in Scotland...
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

    Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

    It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

    Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

    It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.
    So feeble, he's driven Labour insane and wiped out the Lib Dems.

    Just imagine what he would have achieved if he wasn't feeble.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    More SNP trouble

    "An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

    According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

    Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

    "Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,528
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, abusing the 'new thread' trick to divert attention from your comedy typo on the last thread is dastardly cheating.

    I made the same comedy typo on twitter. I wish I could say it was because of getting this poll at 7.30pm, but I got the embargoed copy at 6pm.
    Is that the one that had Natalie Bennett heading into No 10?
    Mad Nat McMad.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    edited January 2016
    MikeL said:

    david_herdson said:

    Labour and Corbyn's numbers are dire. 'Unelectable' doesn't do them justice: Labour are heading for a 1930s result if he stays the distance. It's not going to get better.

    And much of the next few months is going to be focussed on Lab's defence review.

    Defence is by far the most toxic subject for Lab - they will lose more votes over Defence than anything else.

    Even just having the subject talked about on TV is disastrous for Lab.
    But for Corbyn and his fellow travellers it's the central plank of their policy platform.

    They *want* everyone to be talking about labour's defence policy, even though to most people the idea that they don't want to defend the country is seen as preposterous.

    In a nutshell, it's why that 29% is only going in one direction. There's months of this to come and Corbyn's looking forward to every minute of it!! It's the culmination of his life's ambitions.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    PClipp said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU receives a boost today from the Independent on Sunday Poll, which finds that the central demand of his renegotiation is supported by a huge majority.

    The poll, carried out by ComRes, finds that 84 per cent of voters support the Prime Minister’s plan to require people who come to the UK from the EU to pay taxes for four years before they can claim tax credits and other benefits. It also finds substantial backing for EU citizens being free to work in other EU countries, supported by 49 per cent and opposed by 29 per cent.

    Is that all that Cameron`s great renegotiation ploy consists of?

    It seems to me that Cameron is the most feeble prime minister we have had since Neville Chamberlain.
    A comparison of what Cameron wanted before and what he actually gets will be amusing. That is assuming associate membership is off the table for now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Hey No Change, No Surprise.

    It's what 7 months now since I predicted No Change under Corbyn from the GE of 2015 till the GE of 2020 ?
    So far so good.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    MikeL said:

    Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

    Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

    Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands. ComRes's data is not comparable with past polls because of the (over?)adjustments but clearly Labour IS divided and that's never popular. Whether that will change over time, we shall see.

    O/T: Went along to the London Lumiere at Kings Cross this evening. Not too impressed - wonderful turnout (in the hundreds of thousands, I'd think - like a football match only much more) but the scattered exhibits were a bit meh - a birdcage, dots on a wall, a wedding dress, a projection, etc. Would have been nice enough, but oversold. The crowd were cheerfully underwhelmed, and mostly seemed to be just enjoying the evening stroll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Moses_ said:

    More SNP trouble

    "An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

    According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

    Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

    "Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

    This is what narrow little nationalism eventually leads to.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,933
    Corbyn spent all those years on the back benches with nobody listening to him. Now that some people are paying attention he's hardly going to think of it as a downgrade. If Corbyn lives to 125 he'll still be Labour leader. It'll be just him in the party (possibly with the characterful and brave Andy Burnham), but still.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    Con+Ukip = 56%. Funny to think that one reason the centre-left were so keen to introduce AV was to cement their natural majority.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    Moses_ said:

    More SNP trouble

    "An SNP politician has been suspended by the party after allegedly sending hateful text messages to a Muslim colleague.Dundee City councillor Craig Melville, an aide to SNP deputy leader Stewart Hosie, is alleged to have sent a number of texts to an unnamed woman within the party, shorty after the terror attacks in Paris.

    According to the Daily Record newspaper, one text read: "It's not personal I just ******* hate your religion and I'll do all in I'm life do defeat your filth." (sic)

    Another reportedly said: "And in your favour we live in an uneducated left lift loopy left wing society who is more interested in claiming benefits and being ignorant to the threat of your horrible disease which is a make believe **** in the sky. (sic)

    "Horrible murdering Islamic ****s."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1624059/snp-aide-suspended-over-anti-islamic-texts

    The SNP is a very broad church, from communists to nazis and everything in between as long as they support scottish independence or think that every other party is crappier.

    At some point the natural inconsistencies within such a broad church will snap it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,775
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CON 40% (nc) LAB 29% (nc) LD 7% (nc) UKIP16% (nc) GRN 34 (nc)

    Yes it is rather a good typo.

    Presumably Mr Eagles is trying to kill the Greens off by giving them heart attacks with the shock.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited January 2016
    david_herdson said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    Con+Ukip = 56%. Funny to think that one reason the centre-left were so keen to introduce AV was to cement their natural majority.
    Yes at the moment the Tories lead with the private sector middle class while UKIP is fast making gains with the working class, leaving the left with the public sector and ethnic minorities (though even there the Tories won Hindus and Sikhs at the election)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MattW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CON 40% (nc) LAB 29% (nc) LD 7% (nc) UKIP16% (nc) GRN 34 (nc)

    Yes it is rather a good typo.

    Presumably Mr Eagles is trying to kill the Greens off by giving them heart attacks with the shock.
    If you hear Caroline Lucas and other Greens talk about the will of the mass of the people (which they represent), they act like that's the poll number they've been getting for years.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2016
    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,933
    NickPalmer said:

    (in the hundreds of thousands, I'd think)

    I went the other night too - your estimate is wildly off. I'd be surprised if there were as many as 10,000 people there.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!
    So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    Ever the eternal optimist.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2016
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!
    So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!
    Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    True, the 2016 locals will be the last good ones for UKIP since their surge occurred in 2013.
    Labour from now till the locals of 2021(2022 in scotland) will be hammered in the countryside, especially the midlands.
    While for the LD most of the damage has already gone through the system.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    Indeed.

    Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

    Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

    The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    Speedy said:

    Hey No Change, No Surprise.

    It's what 7 months now since I predicted No Change under Corbyn from the GE of 2015 till the GE of 2020 ?
    So far so good.

    How much do want to wager on that? £100?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!
    So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!
    Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.
    Cling to that belief as long as you can. If that is what you need to do.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    Ever the eternal optimist.
    Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    Ever the eternal optimist.
    Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?
    Consistency is for the boring!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    @MattSingh_: Customary reminder that tiny, GB-level raked crosstabs can be very misleading. Poll does NOT mean that Labour is in 4th place in Scotland...

    Fifth?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    Indeed.

    Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

    Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

    The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.
    I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

    With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    edited January 2016
    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    Indeed.

    Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

    Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

    The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.
    Forget the polling errors of 2015, I think the biggest error at the 2015 election was by the political pundits/politicians not realising that UKIP might do more damage to Labour than they would do to the Tories

    (And I include myself in that)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    edited January 2016
    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2016
    oxfordsimon said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Tories up 3% since last May, Labour down 1%, the LDs down 1%, UKIP up 3% and the Greens down 1% (they are actually on 3%). Overall that gives a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories since the general election

    No- on the basis of GB figures - which I assume these to be - the poll implies Tories +2 Labour -2!
    So still a swing of 2% from Labour to the Tories!
    Indeed so! I will be a bit surprised if we do not see other pollsters with much smaller Tory leads in the next few days.
    Cling to that belief as long as you can. If that is what you need to do.
    I do not need to cling to anything here - it is simply a matter of looking at the already clearly established pattern of polling that has come out since last May. The data is readily available should you be genuinely interested - but for some reason you appear determined - or desperate - to focus on the poll most favourable to the Tories.
    Earlier in the thread I did actually predict that Comres would come up with a lead similar to this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
    They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
    I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
    Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Well quite. Their new their new found supporters seem to think that 'media' means Twitter, and those in charge would rather be talking about a defence review while their own MPs bad mouth the leadership to any journo that will listen.

    Who's the largest popcorn maker in the UK, 'cos I'd like to buy shares in them on Monday morning?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    NickPalmer said:

    MikeL said:

    Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

    Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

    Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands.
    If correct then it wouldn't affect many seats (in any election) - however it could affect the London Mayoral which is of course just London wide vote total.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    Off topic, Christopher Booker in the Sunday Telegraph identifies a few more easy savings in public spending for Dave, along the lines of our friend in the Environment Agency that lived in Barbados in the winter.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/12103689/Fat-cat-sisterhood-that-runs-Britain-badly.html
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    Someone is unloading on Twitter:

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 3h3 hours ago
    Ted is the ultimate hypocrite. Says one thing for money, does another for votes.
    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/politics/at-new-york-reception-ted-cruz-is-said-to-strike-different-tone-toward-gays.html?referer= …

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
    Ted Cruz was born in Canada and was a Canadian citizen until 15 months ago. Lawsuits have just been filed with more to follow. I told you so

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
    Was there another loan that Ted Cruz FORGOT to file. Goldman Sachs owns him, he will do anything they demand. Not much of a reformer!

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
    The Ted Cruz wiseguy apology to the people of New York is a disgrace. Remember, his wife’s employer, and his lender, is located there!

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
    Oh no, just reported that Ted Cruz didn’t report another loan, this one from Citi. Wow, no wonder banks do so well in the U.S. Senate.

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 7h7 hours ago
    Based on the fact that Ted Cruz was born in Canada and is therefore a “natural born Canadian,” did he borrow unreported loans from C banks?

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 6h6 hours ago
    Ted Cruz purposely, and illegally, did not list on his personal disclosure form personally guaranteed loans from banks. They own him!

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
    If Ted Cruz is so opposed to gay marriage, why did he accept money from people who espouse gay marriage?

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 42m42 minutes ago
    Everybody that loves the people of New York, and all they have been thru, should get hypocrites like Ted Cruz out of politics!

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 43m43 minutes ago
    When will @TedCruz give all the New York based campaign contributions back to the special interests that control him.

    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
    Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

    And it's still going on.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    Speedy said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    Indeed.

    Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

    Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

    The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.
    I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

    With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.
    UKIP doesn't need to WIN to have an impact.

    If UKIP takes more of the 2012 Labour vote than it takes of the 2012 Conservative vote (and it almost certainly will) then Labour loses councillors to the Conservatives.

    UKIP didn't win in Morley or Gower or Telford or Bolton West or Plymouth but it still had a great impact.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
    Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Corbynistas on Twitter have not taken this poll well...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    another_richard said:

    Speedy said:

    another_richard said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    Indeed.

    Another problem for Labour is that the places where they've lost votes to UKIP since 2012 are the places most likely to cost them councillors.

    Though being outside London these losses will be disregarded by the Corbynistas.

    The divide between the Corbynistas and 'Old Labour' will thus be increased.
    I don't think so, the 2016 locals are in areas that predominantly favour Labour or the Tories:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2016

    With the exception of Basildon, Castle Point, Great Yarmouth and a couple of others in Sussex and Essex there are few areas where UKIP has great impact.
    UKIP doesn't need to WIN to have an impact.

    If UKIP takes more of the 2012 Labour vote than it takes of the 2012 Conservative vote (and it almost certainly will) then Labour loses councillors to the Conservatives.

    UKIP didn't win in Morley or Gower or Telford or Bolton West or Plymouth but it still had a great impact.

    To the victor the spoils, to UKIP the short end of the stick.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,015
    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
    I was rather amused the other day to read a spat between two friends on Facebook. Both were people who would post pro-Labour items, especially in the run-up to the election.

    They were arguing over the cuts, with one taking a Blairite, and the other a Corbynite, position. It ended up with them saying to each other that their view represented 'real' Labour.

    It got very heated. I was tempted to chime in and say they were both wrong, but I want to live. ;)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Scott_P said:

    The Corbynistas on Twitter have not taken this poll well...

    Oh dear, what a shame, never mind!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,220
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
    They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
    I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
    Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.
    Yes but in the previous elections in 2004 Labour had already lost 460 seats so had little further to fall. In 2012 Labour gained over 800 seats
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    david_herdson said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
    Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?
    Most are still with Labour - some have switched to Green - others have gone SNP. The other point of course is that the right of centre LibDems who switched to the Tories later in the last Parliament appear for the moment to be content with their new home!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
    They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
    I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
    Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.
    The 2008 local elections had previously been contested in 2004 when the Conservatives had led Labour 37-26:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2004

    It was thus a 4% Lab->Con swing in 2008.

    On this opinion poll we're looking at a 9% Lab->Con swing in 2016.

    Now I'm not expecting that and much can change in four months but things could be very bad for Labour this year.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,877
    Speedy said:

    Someone is unloading on Twitter:



    Donald J. Trump ?@realDonaldTrump 40m40 minutes ago
    Greatly dishonest of @TedCruz to file a financial disclosure form & not list his lending banks- then pretend he is going to clean up Wall St

    And it's still going on.

    So much for the idea that Cruz might be Trump's running mate! At least he is moving slowly on from where his opponent was born, onto what he says and who funds his campaign.

    Whatever one may think about the Donald, he's at least his own man and isn't beholden to large campaign donors. That fact seems to be catching the imagination of Americans.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
    They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
    I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
    Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.
    The Conservatives lost 405 seats 2012, when they had a NEV deficit of 7%, against a lead in 2008 - as you say - of 20%. As the Lib Dems lost 336 seats, few will have gone Con-LD so most will have been Labour gains.

    It's probably not smoothly distributed but a Con lead of 6% would be midway between those two outcomes so losses of c.200 would be ballpark. On top of which, there are then the gains that UKIP might make. If the elections were tomorrow, I'd reckon on perhaps 250 Lab losses.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited January 2016
    david_herdson said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
    Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?
    Good question. They (or some of them at least) may be back with the Lib Dems who in turn may have lost some coalitionistas to the Tories. There could be a lot of churn inside the LD's static-looking polling.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    MikeL said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MikeL said:

    Bearing in mind Lab often perform worse in low turnout elections there has to be scope for an absolute bloodbath in May.

    Plus remember the 100% introduction of Individual Voter Registration that will have led to a disproportionate number of Lab voters being deleted from the register - something that polls will not be taking account of as they don't even ask if people are registered (and some people will think they're still registered when in fact they now aren't!).

    Yes, I think that's a serious issue, although most affects in Labour heartlands.
    If correct then it wouldn't affect many seats (in any election) - however it could affect the London Mayoral which is of course just London wide vote total.
    Yes - it's one reason why I see the Mayoral race as a tossup.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Wanderer said:

    david_herdson said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    ComRes will tell you they were the most accurate pollster at the General Election.

    Gold Standard and all that jazz.

    But ICM will tell you their polls probably still underestimate the Tories and overestimate Lab
    But other commentators have suggested that ComRes has overcompensated and that its assumptions re - DKs are not sound. For some reason the Daily Mail Comres poll tends to come up with figures much closer to the other pollsters.
    Back in November this Weekend poll gave the Tories a 15% lead - Con 42 - Lab 27.
    That maybe so, and I've discussed it with ComRes, but this is Corbyn's honeymoon, the Tories are being shite, yet his leader ratings are awful with each passing month, and the Tories might only be 5% ahead.

    None of this is good news for Labour nor Corbyn.
    Honeymoons are rather a thing of the past nowadays as most relationships are consummated well in advance of the Wedding Day! But to be serious - and as a non-Corbyn supporter - I don't think he has had a honeymoon in any sense that lasted beyond his Party Conference. I would point out,though, that 11% matches the lowest ComRes online poll lead to date. Doubtless the next week will give us useful meat from other pollsters to chew over!
    So what has changed in five years? Ed enjoyed a honeymoon, he had a 4% lead over the Tories with ComRes in Jan 2011
    I don't think that Ed's narrow defeat of his brother in 2010 caused anything like the divisions - apart from personal fraternal relationships -now being seen in Labour ranks.Ed also enjoyed the great bonus of left of centre LibDems having switched in big numbers to Labour following the formation of the Coalition.
    Where are those left-of-centre Lib Dems now?
    Good question. They (or some of them at least) may be back with the Lib Dems who in turn may have lost some coalitionistas to the Tories. There could be a lot of churn inside the LD's static-looking polling.
    Very few I would have thought. Cannot see the LibDems appealing again to left of centre voters much this side of 2040. All Labour has to do is remind people of 'Who put the Tories in?'
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    Ever the eternal optimist.
    Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?
    Lol - you are spinning like a truly demented top - one fears for your health!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    How many councils are Labour in danger of losing in May?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    For a weekend ComRes poll this is nothing new and tends to suggest that other pollsters will be showing a much smaller Tory lead.

    Ever the eternal optimist.
    Just seeking to be intellectually consistent here. Why not give it a try?
    Lol - you are spinning like a truly demented top - one fears for your health!
    Oh dear! I suspect that in your case a change of medication is somewhat overdue.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    Mortimer said:

    Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

    NickP and Speedy are still true believers (bless), I think Big John Owls less so. Oh, and Surby too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,246
    david_herdson said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    another_richard said:

    Less than 4 months to the local elections.

    We need to keep in the mind that the changes since 2012 will determine the gains and losses:

    2012
    Lab 38
    Con 31
    LibDem 16

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2012

    While a bad result for Labour seems near certain, albeit with likely alleviation in the form of a London win, the LibDems might also be heading for yet another dredful result.

    Don't forget UKIP, they were on around 3% in 2012, they will do a lot better than that in 2016, which could lead to all sorts of odd results in May.
    It's going to be fun watching Labour's expectations management running up to the local elections. The 2012 local elections were at the peak of Labour's popularity in the last Parliament. Depending on which polls one believes, there's been around a 9 point swing Lab-Con since then, as well as a huge increase in the UKIP vote.
    You are assuming they will have a media management team that can do things as clever as expectation management. They haven't shown anything close to that since Corbyn and Milne took over.
    Labour won 2,100 seats in 2012 so if it loses 500-600 that would be 1,500 councillors for socialism!
    They didn't lose that many in 2008 when they where 20 points behind the Tories.
    I would expect a partial reversal of the gains of 2012, on the order of 200, mostly in rural areas already under Tory control.
    Although my guess is that Labour will suffer mass loses in Redditch which is the Tory capital.
    The Conservatives lost 405 seats 2012, when they had a NEV deficit of 7%, against a lead in 2008 - as you say - of 20%. As the Lib Dems lost 336 seats, few will have gone Con-LD so most will have been Labour gains.

    It's probably not smoothly distributed but a Con lead of 6% would be midway between those two outcomes so losses of c.200 would be ballpark. On top of which, there are then the gains that UKIP might make. If the elections were tomorrow, I'd reckon on perhaps 250 Lab losses.
    Might I ask which wards the Wakefield Conservatives are targeting this year

    I guess you're looking to make 4-5 gains ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakefield_Metropolitan_District_Council_election,_2012
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Mortimer said:

    Does Corbo even have any cheerleaders left on pb now?

    A lot of PB Tories are still Corbyn cheerleaders.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why do we have to assume that staying nuclear has to be with Trident ? And, 4 of them.
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